A PLAN FOR REVIVAL

A FIVE POINT AGENDA FOR RESURRECTION OF THE CONGRESS

The much hyped Congress Working Committee (CWC) meeting scheduled for today ended on a rather familiar note with 'interim' President Sonia Gandhi agreeing to hang on to the top post for six more months. Sparks began to fly late last evening as 23 prominent Congressmen in a letter addressed to the former NAC Chairperson, raised pertinent questions on the lack of visible leadership within the grand old party. Even as Gandhi sycophants stepped in to defend the INC's first family against this unexpected onslaught, former President Rahul Gandhi decided to take the 'dissenters' head on, and as per ANI sources, accused them of 'colluding with the BJP'. Moments later, former minister Kapil Sibal who was one of the signatories to the letter put out a sarcastic tweet hitting back at the Waynad MP. Another prominent 'dissenter', former External Affairs minister Ghulam Nabi Azad threatened to resign if Rahul could prove his charges. Clearly stung by these attacks, Rahul denied making the remark as loyalists including former PM Manmohan Singh, former Defence Minister A K Anthony et all convinced the aging Sonia to stay on.

Though I am no fan of either the Congress or the Gandhis, it is important that the party somehow puts its house in order as soon as possible. For a vibrant democracy, a robust Opposition that takes on the Government on its policies and stands by it during times of national crisis is an absolute must. The Congress has failed so far, on both these fronts. Somehow, the INC has not yet recovered from the jolt of May 2014 and over the years, the abysmal state of affairs within the outfit only continues to worsen. This has further added to the aura of invincibility surrounding the BJP led by the powerful Modi-Shah duo. Even otherwise, the Congress is the inheritor of a rich legacy, having been one of the many prominent players in the national movement. While it is true that the INC of the freedom struggle is a far cry from the INC of today, we must also acknowledge that it is this organization that gave us some of our greatest founding fathers including Nehru, Patel, Bose and the Mahatma. With no full time leader, almost zero inter-party democracy and an outdated ideology, it is highly unlikely that the INC is going to witness a change in political fortunes anytime soon. Even as India's most successful political party struggles to find panacea for the many problems it faces, here is my five point agenda for a possible Congress revival.

(1) A full time President, preferably Rahul Gandhi: For years now, the Congress' longest serving President Sonia Gandhi has not been keeping well. Considering that the Amethi MP is under medication, it is mind-boggling that she is forced to stay on at the helm of affairs in the INC, in spite of the fact that she has offered to step down on multiple occasions. The logic behind this seems to be the fact that the grand old party needs a Gandhi to run the show smoothly. The family is apparently the glue that holds the many factions within the party together. With Sonia needing a break and Priyanka shifting focus to UP, it is imperative that the party leaders convince the 'reluctant Crown Prince' to take back the reins of the Congress. Will this move succeed? I am not sure; Rahul Gandhi's lack luster report card does not inspire confidence either. However, this move will at least clear the leadership mess and set in a clear hierarchy with the Congress. As and when that happens, the Waynad MP must usher in a set of reforms to empower Youth Congress organizations and promote internal democracy, topics which he has spoken about in the past but which, in pure Rahulesque fashion were not followed up during his first tenure.

(2) A clear Ideology: In what can be described as the most passionate speech in his political career so far, Rahul Gandhi while speaking at the AICC in January 2013 described the Congress as follows: 'Congress Party ek soch hain aur yeah soch hum sabke dil mein hain'. It is time that the young Gandhi scion articulated what this soch (idea) is and what it stands for. For decades, the INC has been seen as a Centrist, pro-Socialist, Secular party though not all of its policies have been in accordance to these lofty ideals. The aggressive pro-Hindutva stance of the BJP and its consecutive victories since 2014 seem to have left a deep impact on the grand old party, forcing it to project itself a much softer Hindutav party. It was in the wake of this that Rahul went temple hoping prior to UP 2017 polls and described himself as a 'Janayu-dhari Shiv Bhakt'. Multiple flip flops, especially on issues of national importance like surgical strikes and the building of the Ram Mandir have given more fodder for the BJP to project its nemesis as weak and rudderless. Even as traditional vote banks including Dalits, women and tribals seem to be gravitating to the saffron outfit, the party is fast losing its ground even in its former strongholds like Maharasthra, Andhra-Telangana and North East. There is an urgent need for the Congress to reflect upon what is the 'idea of India' that it arrogates to itself and claims to be fighting for every now and then. It needs an ideology that a young, inspirational India of the 21st century can connect with.

(3) Promoting Regional Leaders: During the decade since its defeat at the hands of the UPA in 2004, it was state leaders like Narendra Modi, Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Raman Singh who kept the saffron flag flying in the heartland even as the party faced an existential crisis at the national level. In fact, in what was a tribute to the BJP's culture of nurturing dynamic regional satraps, it was the Gujarat CM who brought it to power at the Center after 10 years of warming the Opposition benches. In sharp contrast, it has been the Congress policy since the days of Indira Gandhi to cut wings of ambitious state chieftains in a bid to enforce the power of the High Command. Nine out of ten Congress CMs are Gandhi loyalists who pose no threat to the power and prestige of the first family. Evidently, this culture has back fired. While the Congress tries to fix the mess in the national leadership, the need of the hour is to take on the BJP at the state level. The appointment of Priyanka Gandhi as the AICC in-charge of eastern UP and the elevation of PAAS leader Hardik Patel in Gujarat and strategist D K Shiv Kumar in Karnataka are steps in the right direction. Incumbent CMs like Captain Amarinder Singh (Punjab), Bhupesh Baghel (Chattisgarh) and Ashok Gehlot (Rajasthan) need to be given full backing of the top brass amd more responsibility in framing the future direction of the INC.

(4) Bridging the Young-Old Divide: For a decade that the UPA was in power, the right mix of dynamic youngsters owing allegiance to Rahul Gandhi and a section of experienced loyalists believed to be close to Sonia was seen as the secret for the success of the Congress. As the old timers grabbed the plum ministries, the youngsters seemed to be contend with donning the hat of MoS. Cut to present and the rebellions of Jyotiraditya Scindia and Sachin Pilot paints a sad picture of a party that is imploding from within thanks to the frictions between the pro-Rahul and pro-Sonia camps. While Sachin was convinced to stay back, the grand old party has already lost some of its most promising young Turks including Scindia Jr., Hemanta Biswas Sarma, Pradyot Manikya Debbarma and Ajoy Kumar. Several other next gen leaders like Milind Deora, Sanjay Nirupam, Navjyot Singh Sidhu and Naveen Jindal are reportedly unhappy with being left out from the scheme of things within the Congress. The INC needs to think how it can manage its demographic divide and reap rich dividends out of it.

(5) Getting more Allies on board: Last but not the least, the INC needs to work towards broadening the UPA by getting more parties on board in its fight against the BJP led NDA. A formal alliance with the Left Front at least in Kerala for the national elections will make sure 20 seats are kept out of reach of the saffron outfit. Similarly, other anti-BJP parites like Mamta Bannerjee's Trinamool Congress (TMC), Kejriwal's Aam Admi Party (AAP) and HDK's Janata Dal-Secular (JD-S) will only improve its tally. However, for the broadening of UPA, the INC should be ready to make sacrifices; it has already shown that it is ready for this by tying up with the Shiv Sena in Maharasthra and allowing Kumarswamy to become the CM in Karnataka in spite of winning less than 40 seats in the 220 odd strong state legislative assembly. However, more would be needed in the days to come for the Congress to reclaim its long lost pre-eminent position in Indian politics.

LUCKNOW CALLING

PRIYANKA v/s YOGI in 2022

Priyanka Gandhi - Courtesy: Face Book

Early in the month of July, the Housing Ministry of the Central Government served an order to Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi, cancelling the allotment of the Lodhi Estate house in Delhi, which she has been occupying for last 23 years. As expected, the BJP justified the decision, pointing out that the Gandhis, considered to be the first family of Indian politics, no longer enjoy the Special Protection Guard (SPG) protection after the Act was amended in Dec 2019 to cover only the family members of the incumbent and former PMs. The Congress went out all guns blazing; accusing the Modi government of vendetta politics and calling the move a sustained effort on the part of the Modi-Shah duo to target its top brass personally.

On her part, it seems as though Priyanka was anyway planning to shift out of Delhi with reports suggesting that she was due to move to Lucknow so that she could take her job as the party general secretary in charge of UP more seriously. The outbreak of the Corona pandemic seems to have postponed her plan, till the BJP decided to show the more hardcore elements of its core electorate that it would not go soft on the Gandhis. On the part of the INC, they have decided to milk the situation, accusing the government of witch hunt against the younger Gandhi who has been quite vocal in her criticism of the Yogi regime in Uttar Pradesh, and in the process, earn some sympathy for its High Command which has seen its stocks plummet to a low time low.

Ever since the drubbing it got in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the grand old party, has largely been on the back foot at the center, the imbroglio surrounding Rahul Gandhi’s re-appointment as the President, only making the matters worse. Under these circumstances when the party has not been able to corner the government in spite of its mishandling of the Covid situation in the country and recent clashes at the China border, Priyanka’s decision to shift base to Lucknow and help build the party in India’s most important state is certainly a step in the right direction, for the following reasons:

(1) The Gandhis are serious about UP, finally: Though Uttar Pradesh has been the home turf of the Gandhis, they seem to have some how lost touch with the state, post the Indira Gandhi era. The party has become irrelevant outside the pocket boroughs of Rae Bareli and Amethi, ceding ground, first to the BJP during the Babri Masjid demolition movement and then to the two main regional players – the Mulayum Singh & Akhilesh Yadav led Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Mayawati lead Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP); in fact, in the last national polls, BJP leader Smriti Irani even managed to wrest Amethi from the then Congress President Rahul Gandhi.

With Priyanka being one of the main weapon’s in the Congress’ arsenal for the time being, her impending move to Lucknow is a clear indication that the party means business in UP and will put its entire might to put up a good show in the 2022 state polls.

(2) A complete overhaul of the UP Congress: With the party being out of power in Lucknow since 1989, in many parts of the big state, the Congress cadre is non-existent and most of its one-time big wigs have moved on to rival camps. As seen in the 2017 state elections where it happily agreed to play a junior partner to the SP, it seemed until now that the Congress had given up all hopes, resigning to the fact that it was not a serious contender for UP anymore.

With a Gandhi scion taking hold of the reins of the party in UP, it is expected that Priyanka would usher in a series of much delayed and much needed reforms to stop the rot in the UPCC (Uttar Pradesh Congress Committee) and help rebuild the party organization, from the scratch, quite literally. Moreover, for quite some time now, she had been taking on the Yogi government on its alleged failures to provide good governance to the people. Shifting base to UP, not only gives more vigor to her barbs against the state government but is also expected to enthuse the ordinary Congress karya karta right in time for the state polls, scheduled to be held in 20 months.

In fact, she can take some inspiration from bitter rival Amit Shah who as the head of BJP state unit helped the party and its allies win a staggering 73 out of the 80 seats in the 2014 polls that saw Modi sweep to power while the Congress was reduced to its worst ever tally of 44 seats at the national level. Prior to his arrival in UP, BJP's position in the state was just a little better than what the Congress finds itself in as of now; Shah rebuilt the party, taking lots of tough decisions that ultimately paid off. Congress sympathizers are definitely hoping for such a show from Priyanka.

(3) The Division of Power: Ever since Rahul entered electoral politics, there have been accusations of there being multiple power centers within the Congress that severely curtails its ability to take quick decisions vis-a-vis the BJP where Modi’s diktat reigns supreme. It is known that the Congress is split into two camps, the old timers swearing loyalty to Sonia and the young Turks pledging allegiance to Rahul. Of late, with Priyanka taking a more active interest in politics, many feared that a new third camp may emerge, especially with Rahul finding hard to win elections for the party.

Priyanka’s move to Lucknow and Rahul taking back reins from Sonia will certainly be a step that could clear a lot of the mess regarding decision making in the Congress. Rahul would be free to take decisions at the Centre and concentrate on cornering the Modi government while Priyanka, as his trusted lieutenant can help revive the party fortunes in UP.

Priyanka’s choice of residence in UP’s capital city is laced with all sorts of symbolism; she has decided to move into the vacant house owned by Late Sheila Kaul, the sister-in-law of Jawahar Nehru. What makes the house more special is that it was here that Gandhiji and Nehru had planted a tree together way back in the 1930s. Don’t be surprised if you see Priyanka’s social media feed flooded with images of this tree in the run up to the 2022 state polls in a bid to invoke the Nehru-Gandhi legacy of the Congress.

Overall, Priyanka’s move to Lucknow certainly seems to be a step in the right direction. If she can put her political acumen and charisma to good use, she can put the party on a firm footing in UP, while keeping the Yogi government on tenterhooks. If she can get back the traditional Congress vote banks of Brahmins, Muslims and Dalits that they have lost to BJP, SP and the BSP respectively, then the party can hopefully see a revival of fortunes in the big state. In fact, the Congress should take the gamble, announce Priyanka Gandhi as its CM nominee, thereby raising the stakes. The move may or may not pay off, but then, as they say, ‘Fortune favors the Brave’. It could just be the move that could spark off a Congress revival on India's political landscape.

ABANDONING THE SINKING SHIP

RAHUL'S LEAVE IS THE LAST THING THAT THE CONGRESS WANTED

A good captain never abandons the ship even if it means that he has to go down with it. Unfortunately though, it looks like Baba never learnt this lesson while in school. What else can explain the latest amongst the 'unending' list of blunders that the MP from Amethi has committed over the past one year. Even as the Congress was planning to use the opposition against the Land Acquisition Bill as a comeback tool to counter the Modi regime particularly after the setback it suffered in the national capital, Rahul's absence has only made the matters worse for the Congress. Forget attacking the BJP over the 'short comings' of the above mentioned bill on the floor of the Lok Sabha, the INC spokespersons had a tough time defending the antics of their Vice President who seems to have a natural flare for 'messing up things'.

As per some theories doing the rounds, the Gandhi scion is quite unhappy with the fact he does not have a free hand within the party structure headed by his ailing mother as yet. It is believed that Rahul wants to completely revamp the party structure, throw out the old guard and bring in 'fresh' blood so as to rejuvenate the 130 year old outfit which is literally struggling for its survival. Though most of his 'innovative' ideas failed to yield any sort of result in the May 2014 General Polls, the younger Gandhi and his coterie of followers believe that this is the way to go for the INC. Like many, the party president herself seems to be rather unimpressed. With Sonia refusing to give into his demands, Rahul has decided to make his displeasure public by going on a two week long 'sabbatical' as a sign of protest.

However, the loyalists have a different take on this. They believe that Rahul who is soon to be anointed as the President of the grand old party in the coming month has taken a 'break' to reflect on things and contemplate on ideas that he would like to implement after he takes over. Now, this is hilarious, isn't it? Firstly, does the MP from Amethi even have the caliber to hold a post that was once occupied by great men by Jawaharlal Nehru, Lokmanya Tilak or Netaji Subash Chandra Bose; In my opinion, the answer to that question is a 'No'. Of course, the loyalists will point out that post independence, the only qualification to be a Congress President is to be born in the Nehru-Gandhi family and Baba fulfills this criteria. Even if we chose to ignore that for the time being, what shocks me is that the move to go on leave on the eve of the Budget session, considering the moribound state of affairs in the party. Rahul should have personally led the attack on the government; after all, the Land Acquisition Bill introduced by the UPA in 2013 was said to be his brain child. By excusing himself from the Parliament at this critical juncture, the 'soon-to-be' President of the Congress has let another opportunity to lead a revival slip out of his hands.

At the heart of this debate is when will Baba grow up. The Gandhi scion is in mid 40s now and his report card is dismal. Though Congress leaders would like the nation to look upon him as a 'youth icon', he is certainly not that. The Indian youth today are confident in making tough decisions and are not scared of taking accountability of their actions, much unlike Rahul. It is high time that the Gandhi scion sheds his 'reluctant politician' tag and takes up his job more seriously; else his 'short-lived' career in politics would also bring down the curtains on India's oldest political party.

FLOP SHOW

ANALYZING INC's DEFEAT IN 2014 LOK SABHA POLLS

Courtesy: NDTV

Earlier this week, the much awaited Anthony Committee submitted its report detailing the causes that led to the Congress' disastrous defeat in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. With many leaders in the party questioning Rahul Gandhi and his style of leadership, it was expected that the commission would suggest certain 'tough' decisions to revive the 128 year old party. However, while speaking to the media after submitting his report, the former Defence Minister exonerated Baba of all charges; in fact, the former MP went on to praise the two Gandhis for doing their best during the election campaign. The fears that most of us had was confirmed; instead of finding the multiple issues that plague the grand old party and addressing them, the Gandhis had flatly refused to accept their share of the blame. In a similar move, the mother and son duo had earlier, in the aftermath of the May 16 results, offered mere 'lip service' by offering to resign in the CWC meet, a move that was immediately 'rejected' by their chamchas. It is easy to understand why the former Kerala CM has given a clean chit to the first family. Anthony has always been a loyalist and though he might be in the last leg of his political career, he has no reason to infuriate his bosses. Although he may have his own set of reason for not 'unearthing' the truth, we do not have any such compulsions or obligations towards the dynasty. The following are the reasons that I believe led to the Congress recording its worst showing in the polls held earlier this year.

Leadership Crisis: The prime reason for the debacle of the Congress party in the recently concluded polls was the 'uninspiring and insipid' leadership of Rahul Gandhi. Appointed as the party's vice president at a function in the Talkatora stadium in New Delhi, the Gandhi scion began on a rather impressive note as he unveiled his plans for a grand vamp up of the century old INC. Unfortunately for Rahul and his outfit, this was the only bright spot in a rather lackluster report card so far. Much like his below par performances in the Bihar and Uttar Pradesh state elections, the 'strategy-consultant' managed or should we say 'mis-managed' the campaign that saw the INC register its worst performance in its electoral history. His pet projects including holding primaries to select nominees for parliamentary seats, a move hailed by some as 'far-sighted', proved to complete failures with all candidates selected via this process failing to make the cut. The so-called youth icon's interview to Times Now Editor-in-Chief Arnab Goswami which exposed his complete disconnect from the issues that matter most to the masses made him the laughing stalk of the nation. Even during the campaign, many senior leaders in the party had complained that the VP was being 'misguided' by a coterie of leaders who are out-of-touch with ground reality. All throughout the campaign, Baba failed to strike a chord with the audiences, an art that his mother has mastered. With Narendra Modi projecting himself as a strong alternative to the passiveness displayed by the UPA, Rahul stood no chance. Forget convincing the rest of the country to vote for the Congress, the Amethi MP's victory margin in his own constiuency was reduced to just over a lakh votes.

Lack of strong regional leaders: Another factor that contributed to the party's embarrassing tally was the fact that it did not have strong state leaders who could get the votes. While the BJP swept most of the states where it was in power, the INC failed to open its mark in as many as 14 states including some big ones like Gujarat, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. In all these states, the saffron outfit had leaders who were empowered to take decisions on their own. On the contrary, lack of powerful state chiefs has been the problem with the Congress ever since the Indira era. The outfit has never promoted strong CMs since the Gandhi family looks upon them as rivals to their power. After the resignation of Ashok Chavan as the CM of Maharashtra following the Adarsh expose, the high command sent its trusted aide Prithviraj Chavan from New Delhi instead of choosing someone like Narayan Rane who had spent much of his career in the state. On similar lines, in spite of leading the INC to a close victory in the 2012 state polls (Link), the party preferred former MP Vijay Bahuguna and then Harish Rawat over the likes of Harak Singh Rawat and Yashpal Arya. And while mentioning this point, how can one forget the treatment meted out to YSRCP chief Jaganmohan Reddy. After the untimely death of former Andhra strongman Y S Rajashekar Reddy, the Gandhis refused to give the CM's post to his son Jaganmohan, fearing that he might become 'bigger' than the party and its top leadership in the southern state. As Reddy junior left the party and launched a new outfit - the YSR Congress Party, he was hounded by the CBI and jailed for 18 months. Without any mass leader and following the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh, the INC was routed as the TDP-BJP combine and the YSRCP shared the spoils.

Corruption: If there was one issue that dominated the election campaign it was corruption. Anna Hazare's indefinite strike at Jantar Mantar in August 2011, the formation of the Kejriwal led Aam Admi Party (AAP) and its victory in the Delhi state assembly gave hope to over a billion Indians that our nation could finally be cured of the cancer that had engulfed it for over six decades. Unfortunately for the Congress, the plethora of scams that rocked the UPA in the latter half of its second term put it on the back foot. The scam in the allocation of Coal blocks at a time when Manmohan Singh was in charge of this ministry tainted the 'clean' image of PM. The 2G allocation scam dubbed by many as the biggest scam in the history of India saw the arrest of former Telecom Minister A Raja as well as DMK chief Karunanidhi's daughter Kanimozhi, further embarrassing the government. The Choppergate scam, the CWG scam, the allegations of graft in the Antrix deal and Railgate, hit the credibility of the UPA regime as well as the INC. At a time when all the parties were hitting at the Congress over its failure to tackle this menace, the party did not make the fight against corruption as one of the main focus points of its campaign. Obviously, after facing so many allegations of graft, there was no way anyone would take the party's resolve to get the country rid of this menace seriously. Probably, after the elevation of Modi as the BJP's PM candidate, the INC thought that 'Secularism' and its co-called 'Idea of India' would help it brush aside all charges of corruption and help it win a consecutive third term. This proved to be a miscalculation as the results suggest.

Wrong Allies: Another factor that led to the INC do badly in the polls was the fact that it did not have the right partners on its side. Mamata Bannerjee walked out of the UPA over the issue of price rise. Had the Congress leadership been able to placate her, the two parties would have easily bagged nearly 35-40 seats in Bengal. Months before the elections, its southern ally - the DMK walked out of the UPA over the government's soft stand towards Sri Lanka. While the BJP was joining hands with many outfits all across the country, the INC was left with just four major partners - the NCP, the National Conference in Kashmir, the RLD in Western UP and the RJD in Bihar. Much like the INC, even its allies were facing the heat ahead of the General elections. Moreover, in spite of the bifurcation of Andhra, KCR refused to merge his outfit into the INC. In three key southern states - Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Andhra, the Congress was entering the battlefield without any strong partner on its side. There were reports that the party leadership was in talks with 'like-minded' parties like the Jaganmohan Reddy's YSRCP, Badruddin Ajmal's AIUDF, Nitish Kumar's JD-U and Mayawati's BSP to forge pre-poll alliances. However, unfortunately for the Congress, none of these materialized. While the INC got 44 seats, its allies fared even worse - the NC and the RLD failed to open their accounts, Pawar's NCP was reduced to six seats whereas Lalu's comeback was all hype and no substance. Actually, the other allies of the BJP in the NDA put together got more seats than the INC in 2014.

Communication: The troika of the Gandhis and Manmohan Singh that had taken the UPA to a victory in 2009 failed to communicate with the people in the last five years. Former PM Singh was never known to be an effective orator. However, he had managed to send a strong signal to the electorate by taking the onus of passing the Indo-US Nuclear deal on himself. In the second term though, he repeatedly came under attacks of the the media for failing to take on corruption head on. He hardly addressed any press conference and failed to convey his views to the masses. Equally to blame is vice president Rahul Gandhi. The younger scion of the party's first family who is known to be a reluctant politician has to take his share of blame too. When the entire country was discussing issues like price rise, corruption and women's empowerment, Baba never felt the need to speak to the media. Of course, he did tear the cabinet resolution giving relief to convicted parliamentarians at a pres conference early this year but this was a clear case of too little too late. This apart from the fact that his actions had undermined the stature of the PM. To add to the INC's woes, its biggest vote catcher - party president Sonia Gandhi's ill health prevented her from campaigning actively. On the contrary, the BJP's electoral strategy was more focused. Narendra Modi used his twitter handle to connect with the people and address his views on issues, both big and small. Obviously, while the BJP created history by going past the 272 mark, the INC could not even finish with one sixth of that tally.

IMAGES 

(1) Courtesy: NDTV
Original: Sonia and Rahul Gandhi may offer resignations after Congress rout: Sources (Link)

AND THE LOSING CAPTAIN IS...

VETERAN KHARGE MADE THE LEADER OF THE CONGRESS

Courtesy: Post Jagran

Apart from the Modi wave that swept the country taking the saffron outfit beyond the halfway mark, the 2014 General Elections will also be remembered for decimation of India's grand old party. Never in its 126 year long history had the Congress party recorded such a dismal performance in the Lok Sabha polls. While we can write a 1000 page book on why the INC failed to even win one tenth of the total seats in the Lower House of the Parliament - a pre-requisite to be termed as the 'principal opposition', a large part of the blame should fall on the (not-so)young and (un)able shoulders of the Vice President Rahul Gandhi. After all, was he not the one who led the party in a campaign which saw it record its worst ever showing and basically handed the victory to the BJP and Narendra Modi on a platter? While the junior Gandhi and his mummy Sonia did offer to resign at the recently held party convention, it was, as Times Now Editor-in-Chief Arnab Goswami put it, mere 'lip-service'. As the focus shifted from the election debacle to devising a strategy to resurrect the party ahead of the state polls scheduled later this year, many top guns including Digvijay Singh and Shashi Tharoor believed that it would be 'logical' for Rahul to head the 44 elected members of the Congress in the Lok Sabha. I mean, to be frank, I am pretty sure many of us would feel the same. However, it seems that the INC chief had other plans. In what is seen by some as an attempt by the party chief to shield her son from the attacks of a 'much stronger and a confident BJP' or as others feel, another occasion where Baba has refused to take 'responsibility', veteran Karnataka leader and former Railway Minister Mallikarjun Kharge has been appointed as the leader of the Congress party in the Lower House.

From the Congress' point of view, there are 'reasons' behind the move. The official party line has been that the top priority for the MP from Amethi now is to resurrect the party. The rout in the elections has been rude shock and has completely exposed the organizational mess that the party finds itself in as of today. While anti-incumbency has played a huge part in the poll debacle, there are other areas of concern too - the lack of strong state leaders who can get the votes, the inability to stitch alliances with key regional partners and the most importantly - the lack of internal democracy. Rahul has been quite vociferous about the need to revamp the Congress in his rather limited interaction with the media over the last five years, things like internal primaries before candidate selection (a move that proved to be a complete failure in the Lok Sabha elections), increasing the representation of women, empowering the Youth Congress et all. As such, the High Command - the Congress equivalent of the Communist 'Politburo' believes that there are important issues to be settled than warming the Opposition benches. This is true especially with the elections in Maharashtra and Haryana - two INC ruled states which the BJP and its allies literally swept, just around the corner. Another cause of concern for the INC would be that Rahul does not have any experience to take up this tough job. In fact, in the last Lok Sabha, the Vice President's attendance has been mere 42 percent; you see if Baba was a BE student, he would not have been able to answer the semester exams. With reports indicating that Rahul himself was not too keen to take up the job, the names doing the rounds were that of former Union ministers - Kamal Nath and Veerappa Moily. However, the appointment of Kharge as the head of the Congress parliamentary board did come in as a surprise.

While the Congress leaders may go to great lengths defending this decision, it is easy to see what why this is another mistake that the INC has done in the last few months. One of the reasons that Modi held the upper hand over Rahul during the course of the elections was that while the former had served and delivered as the Chief Minister of Gujarat, the latter was seen as a 'reluctant politician who never took any post'. In the decade that the UPA was in power, the Amethi MP was never a part of the government, he did not speak on subjects like corruption and women's safety when they shook the conscience of the nation or never articulated his views on important issues either in the Parliament or in the media. Of course, loyalists would spring to his defence; they will recall that 'infamous' news conference where the younger Gandhi literally forced the government to scrap that Ordinance to protect convicted MPs, a decision which was taken earlier in an all-party meeting headed by the Prime Minister (Link) or his fiery speech in the Talkatora stadium after his anointment as the chief of his party's election campaign where he vetoed the UPA regime to increase the cap on subsidized LPG cylinders for domestic use from 9 to 12. However, such 'symbolic' gestures are definitely not enough. That disastrous interview to Arnab where he talked only about RTI and women's empowerment was for many, one of the key turning points of the 2014 General Elections. For a voter like me, it was proof that Rahul had still a long way to go before he could even be 'considered', yes you read it right, 'considered' to be the PM of the world's largest democracy. As the head of the Congress, the 43 year old would have got crucial first hand experience that would come in handy in the future. The post would be an ideal platform for him to understand politics better, build a rapport with leaders across party lines and most importantly, help him in placing his point of view before the masses. As a matter of fact, several ex-Prime Ministers including Vajpayee, Narasimha Rao and even Rajeev Gandhi had served as the Leader of the Opposition and there is no reason as to why the junior Gandhi should not have done the same.

It makes sense for us to sit back and ponder as to what kind of message has the Congress sent to both, its workers and the people of the country by taking this decision. Lets suppose, the UPA had done the impossible, what I mean to say is the hypothetical situation wherein the UPA would have come to power for a third consecutive term. There was no question whatsoever as to who would become the PM of the country. The standard party line would be that since Rahul led the party's campaign, it would be 'natural' for him to take up the top job too. Now that the outfit has done miserably and considering the same argument, it is logical that Rahul should lead his party men in the Parliament as they shift from the treasury to the opposition benches. A good captain never abandons his ship, rather prefers going down with it. By refusing to head the Congress now, the Amethi MP has in some way, refused to own his share of responsibility. The effect that this move can potentially have on the cadre could be deadly. I mean who would like to work for an organization where the management takes the credit for all success but refuses to acknowledge its role in defeat. Certainly not me. I believe that thousands of Congress workers who worked for the party during the polls would be shattered by this development. Of course, there are many who still swear by the first family, the ones who feel they can do no wrong. However, the India of 2014 is certainly not the India of the 1970s and Rahul does not have the charisma that say, his grand mother had. While he may come across as a 'nice guy', there is no doubt that the move has not gone well with a lot of people. At a time when questions are being raised about his style of leadership, the least that he could have done is head the Congress legislative party at least for the time being and then take up some tough decisions to rejuvenate the party. May be, a few months down the line, he could have actually moved out.

Lastly, the move to appoint Kharge shows that the INC has certainly not learnt its lessons. With the likes of Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi in the Parliament, will the Gulbarga MP be able to take decisions on his own? Come on. Manmohan Singh served as the PM for two consecutive terms but it is an 'open secret' that it was the UPA chairperson who called the shots during UPA I. In UPA II, the situation 'deteriorated' further with Rahul embarrassing the government on numerous occasions. In fact, it was evident that there was a certain amount of friction between the PM and the Congress VP and both were not on the same wavelength on several issues. Rahul did not even attend the farewell dinner for the outgoing PM hosted by his mother just a few days before the results were announced. Kharge's appointment has given scope for a similar situation to arise in the future. With Sonia Gandhi not keeping well, there could potentially be two power centers in the party in the Lok Sabha. While the former Union minister will take on the Modi government in the Parliament, Rahul will still command respect. After all, in the INC your abilities do not matter, as long as you belong to the Nehru-Gandhi parivar. As such, you should not be surprised if the two have serious differences of opinion on several matters. Besides, the decision has given ammunition to a stronger, more vibrant BJP to take pot shots at its nemesis. But by refusing to head the Congress party rightly, Rahul has certainly missed the first opportunity to set the things right in his party and may have contributed in weakening it further.

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: Post Jagran
Source: Union Minister Mallikarjun Kharge open to become Karnataka CM (Link)

RIOTS IN UP AND ELECTIONS 2014 - Part II

HOW THE RIOTS IN WESTERN UP WILL AFFECT THE FORTUNES OF PARTIES

Catch 22 situation: Yes, that is precisely the situation that Congress finds itself in Uttar Pradesh. In 2009, following Varun Gandhi's communal speech in his constituency of Pilhibhit, the Congress surpassed all expectations winning 21 seats after minority votes swung in its favor. Back then, it was heralded as the revival of the grand old party in the country's most populous state with party leaders

Rahul meeting a Jat delegation in Delhi

and workers crediting Rahul Baba for the miracle. Putting behind the disaster in Bihar in 2010, the INC, buoyed by its performance in the national polls, made its crown prince the face of its campaign here in 2012. Probably, confident of a good show following the hype around him in the media, Rahul Gandhi even tore the manifesto of the Samajwadi Party during a rally. However, it was Akhilesh and his outfit which walked away with the crown as the INC struggled to reach a paltry figure of 28. Though the Nehru-Gandhi bastions may be safe for the time being, there is absolutely no indication that the Congress may do well in 2014 polls in UP. As far as the western areas of the state are concerned, the conviction of its face in this region - Rasheed Masood for fraudulently nominating candidates during his tenure as the Union Health minister in 1990 is a big blow. The minority leader had quit the SP to join the INC in 2011 after a fall out with Azam Khan. The Congress' hopes of doing well here by allying with Ajit Singh's RLD too has been hit following the riots. As such, some in the party believe that they may do well if they discontinue the alliance with Singh and go all alone. What is adding to its woes is the fact that Jats seem to be shifting towards the BJP after it projected Modi as its PM candidate. The visit of the PM Dr Singh, the UPA Chairperson Mrs Gandhi and her son Rahul to relief camps to 'assess' the situation is nothing but a publicity stunt, with an eye on the national elections. Meanwhile, in a bid to attract minority votes into its fold, Congress leader Rashid Alvi has criticized the SP government of failing to protect the Muslims and calling the riots here, worse than the ones in Gujarat. Reservation for the Jat community, something that they are demanding for some time now, will tilt the balance in its favor.

The right platform: For a party that rose on to national politics following the demolition of the Babri Masjid in 1992, it is surprising that the BJP is in dire straits in its former bastion. Even in 2012, its performance under Hindutva icon Uma Bharati has been disappointing. However, on the eve of the

BJP President Rajnath Singh with Modi

General Elections, things seem to be finally going the saffron outfit's way. The nomination of tainted leader Narendra Modi as its PM nominee has galvanized the cadre. Aware that UP will be the key if he wants to occupy the top post, Modi has deputed his trusted aide - Amit Shah who has been accused of his role in the infamous Godhra riots in 2002, to manage his campaign in the state. In what was a clear case of raising the communal agenda, Shah paid a visit to the Ram Janmabhoomi site in Ayodhya, reiterating his party's stand to construct a Ram temple there. The crackdown by the SP government on the Ayodhya Yatra organized by the VHP, a constituent of the Sangh Parivar has been criticized by the party's top leadership. And a few months later, the riots in Muzaffarnagar has given another opportunity to the party to win votes. Although the state government has slapped cases against two of its MLAs - Suresh Rana and Sangeet Som under the stringent National Security Act (NSA) for whipping up communal flares, the party has in fact, felicitated them. If reports coming from the region are to be believed, the Jats are moving towards the BJP, impressed by the charisma of its leader, Mr Modi. Such a shift will be a major boost to the party. For the Gujarat CM who his known for his brash style of politics, the communal violence in Muzaffarnagar may propel him to New Delhi, similar to the incidents in Godhra back in 2002, which made him the most popular leader in Gujarat.

The sleeping giant: In 2007, Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) supremo beat all odds to script a fairy tale victory by crossing the half way mark on its own, courtesy 'Social Engineering'. However, after completing her five year term, which was marked by brazen corruption and shameless self

BSP supremo Mayawati

glorification, Behenji was routed by her bete noire - SP's Mulayum Singh in the next state polls. The sly vixen that she is, Mayawati kept a low profile following the electoral drubbing. Like a python waiting for the prey to walk into the trap, she waited all along for the young Akhilesh to falter. With the SP government failing to deliver on all fronts in the last two years, the BSP will try to maximize its poll prospects by attacking the regime for its failure to control the riots. With the SP and the BSP being the two main political parties in the state, the mistakes made by one generally helps the other. As such, it should not be surprising if Mayawati finishes first in the four way contest for Uttar Pradesh during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. The BSP leader has always nurtured prime ministerial ambitions; you can expect her to go all out against the Yadav regime in the coming months. Another weapon that Mayawati has in her arsenal is, as mentioned earlier - Social Engineering. Like in 2007 when she romped home to power after weaving together the Dalit-Brahmin alliance, Maya may do exceedingly well in western UP if she can chose the right candidates.

For the previous post on this topic, click here (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Rahul meeting a Jat delegation in Delhi

Source: Indian National Congress - Official Website (Link)

(2) BJP President with Modi

Source: BJP - Official Website (Link)

(3) BSP supremo Mayawati
Source: The Hindu - Mayawati sees SP-BJP conspiracy (Link)

CLOSE ENCOUNTER IN C'GARH - PART III

CHHATTISGARH POLLS 2013: OTHER ISSUES

In the early days of the campaign, the BJP appeared confident that anti-incumbency was not a matter and that it will ride to power for a consecutive third term. Luckily for the party, most of its ministers in the state have stayed away from controversies, unlike in Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka. Also, the welfare schemes undertaken by the Raman Singh government are expected to work in the saffron outfit's favor. However, with the battle heating up, it seems that winning again will be a uphill task. After all, if you have held the reins of government for such long, there will be people who will feel let down. While the BJP may find it difficult to convince the electorate, the dismal performance of the UPA II government at the Centre will prevent the INC from deriving full mileage of this situation. Price Rise and the innumerable corruption scandals that have rattled the Manmohan regime in its second term have tarnished the party's image in all the five poll bound states.

With Chhattisgarh seeing a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress and the General Elections just six months away, the top guns of the two parties have come to different parts of the state for canvassing. The BJP's PM nominee Narendra Modi addressed three rallies in the Bastar reigion which went to the polls on 12 November, a week ahead of the rest of the state. On Novemeber 15, he held four more rallies in Chhattisgarh and it was during one of these that he made the infamous 'Khooni Panja' remark which has irked the Election Commission. Meanwhile, the Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi has attacked the state government for failing to alleviate poverty while speaking to the masses. Probably realizing that Rahul was making a mockery of himself and the Congress party in his speeches, the ailing Sonia Gandhi who is still the trump card of the INC too has jumped into the fray. She was present at rallies in several places including Bhilai, Ambikapur, Kota and Durgapur.

In a state that has been infested by Naxalites, it is not surprising that the it is a big issue on which the people are expected to vote. The Darbha massacre which left 28 men dead, most of them belonging to the Congress, has raised several question marks over the administrative lapses of the Raman Singh government. In fact, very few know that the attack on the Congress cavalcade was in response to the the success that the security forces have had against armed extremists. In the last elections in 2008, the BJP adopted a tough stance on the issue whereas the Opposition seemed to be going soft on them. In the past, the Centre and the state government have traded charges over the failure to curb Maoists in the state. The 18 seats located in the Naxal infected region that went to the elections in the first phase might decide the overall winner. In 2008, the BJP's excellent show in the state was primarily because it stole the march over its arch rival in this part of the state. Reports coming from here indicate that the ruling outfit will find it extremely difficult to even come close to its last performance. The Maoists have called for a boycott of the state elections.

While the fight might be between the two national parties, several smaller players are expected to play spoilsports in many constituencies. In case of a hung assembly, they are expected to bargain hard by acting as 'Kingmakers'. The BSP won two seats in 2008 with both of these coming from the Janjgir-Champa region. This time again the party is hopeful of a good show from here. Several non-Congress and non-BJP parties have come together to form the 'Samyukta Morcha' ahead of the elections, which could be a precursor to the formation of a Third Front at the Centre. The constituents of this grand alliance include the CPI, the CPI(M), the JD(U), the Gondwana Ganatantra Party (GPP), the Loktantrik Samajwadi Party (LSP), the National People's Party (NPP), the Chhattisgarh Swabhiman Morcha (CSM) and the Chhattisgarh Mukti Morcha (CMM). The GPP is active in the Gondi speaking regions of the state. The CSM was floated the late Tarachand Sahu and is strong in Durg and Rajnandgaon.

For more on Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections 2013, click here (Link)

THE FALL OF THE TRIUMVIRATE

CAN MANMOHAN SINGH SURVIVE THE RAGA ASSAULT?

Source: NDTV

In May 2004, as the UPA romped home to a surprise victory by decimating the NDA, Sonia Gandhi - the real architect of this spectacular win refused to accept the PM's post, citing her 'inner voice'. Inspite of repeated attempts to convince her by party colleagues and alliance partners, she refused to budge and hand picked an old time loyalist - Rajya Sabha MP & former Finance Minister Manmohan Singh for the top job. One of the country's best economist, Singh had presented the 1991 budget which opened our economy to foreign brands which is one of the reasons that we are the second fastest growing economy in the world today. Sonia's position was given legitimacy by appointing her as the chief of the National Advisory Council - an institute constituted by the UPA to advise the cabinet on issues concerning the Aam Aadmi. In 2006 the heir apparent Rahul Gandhi was brought into the spot light; back then, he spoke about bringing democracy in a dynasty-based party and reviving its fortunes in states like UP and Bihar. Though the Opposition accused Sonia of remote controlling the government and preparing the ground for Baba to take over, the arrangement worked well for the Congress as it managed to complete its full term despite of regular 'black-mailing' by the Left parties. Like the successful yet controversial Triumvirate of the Roman Republic - an alliance between the great general Pompey, the super rich Cranius and the master politician Julius Caesar to tide over the crisis facing them about two millennia ago, the trioka of Sonia, Singh and Rahul led the UPA to a second consecutive win, even bettering their previous record by a good margin in the 2009 Lok Sabha.

In the period between 2004 to 2010, this was the most dominant force in Indian politics. After publicly renouncing the PM's chair and taking the moral high ground on various issues, Sonia Gandhi's stature grew exponentially, making her, arguably the most popular neta in our country. Manmohan's strong stand on the Indo-US nuclear deal and his 'Mr. Clean' image won his the admiration of the masses, making him the first PM after Nehru to win successive terms. The young and energetic Rahul Baba brought about new ideas; he promised to revamp the party structure and introduce certain measures to revitalize it. His entry into active politics was heralded by Congressmen as a new era in our Rajneeti. Sadly for the three, things started going downhill after the UPA in its second innings was rocked by a series of corruption scandals, some of which like the 2G and Coalgate scams completely tarnished the PM's image. Considering that Mrs. Gandhi still is her party's biggest vote catcher, her health concerns is another big blow. Though she has regularly defended the government in the Lower House, it seems that her health will not permit her to devote much time for political campaigning in the coming years. And Rahul Gandhi has, to a large extent, become a big liability for the Congress. On numerous occasions like the recently concluded Uttar Pradesh elections where he tore the Samajwadi manifesto while addressing an election rally, his words and antics have become a 'hot potato' for the Congress and its supporters. Faced with a formidable challenge posed by a resurgent BJP led by the Gujarat CM Narendra Modi, the top brass of the UPA is feeling the heat. While reports suggesting differences between the Gandhis and Singh have been doing the rounds for some time, the latter tried to prove otherwise by claiming that he would be happy to work under Rahul. However, the junior Gandhi's scathing attack on the Manmohan cabinet for taking the ordinance route to over rule a SC judgement regarding the disqualification of convicted politicians has, perhaps signaled the end of this partnership.

For PM Singh, this brazen attack, especially the strong language used by Rahul in the press conference, could not have come at a worst time. Facing a credibility crisis, the UPA II is surviving on the blessings of the Samajwadi supremo Mulayum Singh Yadav. While Manmohan has been open of his wholehearted support to the candidature of the heir apparent in case a third Congress led regime comes to power, the harsh criticism from the party VP, at a time when he was on an official tour of the US, has for sure, deeply hurt him. As if the crown prince's wrath was not enough, the manner in which both, his party men and cabinet colleagues came out in open support of Baba has completed isolated him. While the party was consulted prior to issuing the ordinance, the perception that has come out now is that it was the PM who wanted to suppress the SC judgement. With the public opinion being strongly in favour of the ruling, his popularity will take a severe beating in the coming days. Though he tried to play down the incident, hailing it as just another part of our democracy where differences of opinion is normal, it is a death blow to the political career of the third longest surviving PM in our history. Instead of helping him and his government put up a formidable fight against Modi, Rahul's washing of dirty linen in public will only give more ammunition to the Opposition camp. The government is in a catch 22 situation now. Not withdrawing the ordinance will be seen as defying the Gandhis, whose every word is nothing less than holy gospel in the INC. On the other hand, considering that many of the existing and prospective allies want him to save their convicted leaders from disqualification, scrapping of the ordinance is easier said than done. While Manmohan Singh has been clear that this will be his last term in the office, this fiasco has only confirmed his retirement sooner than expected.

Many believe that this episode might be an attempt by the junior Gandhi and his party to steal the thunder out of BJP's 'relentless' campaign against the ordinance. Though, the saffron outfit is said to have been with the government during the all party meeting to discuss the future course of action following the SC's verdict, the principal opposition took an aggressive stand, probably after seeing that the mood on the streets was against the ordinance. Apart from lashing out at the government, a delegation of BJP leaders went to meet the President, asking him to reject the ordinance when it would be sent to him for his consent. Forget the BJP, it would not be surprising for a strong President like Pranad Mukherjee to reject the ordinance. This would certainly be an embarrassment for the ruling regime. Meanwhile, at first, the Congress tried to vociferously defend the decision, accusing the Opposition of going back on its word for political gains. Realizing that mood in the country was heavily inclined towards the historic verdict, it seems that Rahul's public outburst was to take all attention away from the BJP's anti-ordinance stance. However, the main question is - What was the so-called 'PM-in-waiting' doing so long? Was he not consulted when the Congress was deliberating on the issue or is the Rahul vs Manmohan war just a drama by their party to do damage control and enhance the former's stature? You never know...

The public outburst might just be another of Baba's innumerable attempts to re-invent himself in national politics and strike a chord with the masses. In 2009, while talking about the plight of farmers in the country, the young Gandhi scion had spoken about Kalavati - a widow from the drought prone Vidarbha region of Maharashtra who came to symbolize the sorry plight of our agarian community. While the INC has been in power for all this long in New Delhi and in Mumbai, Kalavati's condition has only worsened; one of her daughter and a son-in-law have also committed suicide due to the unending cycle of poverty. In the following year, he was given the charge of the party in Bihar, a state wherein his party had been reduced to single digits in the last election. Unfortunately, the Congress was routed again; losing nearly 50% of the seats to end on a final tally of four. In 2012, Rahul took up the cause of people protesting against the then Mayawati government's forceful acquisition of land in the Bhatta Parsaul village in UP. On a visit there, following reports of violence, he accused the administration of killing innocent villagers, burning their bodies and raping their women. However, these claims were never proven, leaving the leader and his party men red-faced. The disaster in the UP polls, especially at a time when another young leader - Akilesh Yadav managed to take the Samajwadi Party well above the half way mark was, yet another chapter in the long list of RaGa's debacles. The problem with Gandhi seems to be that he still hasn't made up his mind on what his role will be in the coming months. He is still reluctant to take that plunge into 'active' politics, he rarely speaks to the media and his views on several issues are unclear. Besides, he lacks the vision of Nehru, the leadership qualities of Indira and the decision-making ability of his uncle Sanjay. Rahul Gandhi has to realize that he has to do a lot more than simply criticizing the government if he has to tackle the NaMo bandwagon. Taking a cue from his mother, he has to find ways of connecting with the people - a trait that the premiere dynasty of our politics has always been known for, so as to help the Congress do well in 2014.

For more on the 2014 General Elections
(1) The Double Edged Sword (Link)
(2) Reading Between the Lines (Link)
(3) An Ally in Need is an Ally Indeed (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Original: Rahul Gandhi leads Congress' charge at mega rally; backs Government on reforms
Source: NDTV (Link)