THE SPOILSPORTS

The Bihar elections has been touted as a two horse race between the incumbent CM Nitish Kumar led 'Grand Alliance' on one side and the Narendra Modi led National Democratic Alliance on the other. With most Opinion Polls predicting a neck to neck contest between the two sides, parties are trying hard to retain their 'traditional' vote banks while hoping to break into those of their rivals. From the development card to caste based politics to evoking religious sentiments, outfits are using every issue under the sun to strike a chord with the electorate and win what is turning out to be the most important polls since the last General Elections. However, with the two coalitions grabbing all the headlines, it is easy to overlook the other smaller parties or formations in the fray; while they may not win many seats, they sure can emerge as 'spoilsports' in their strongholds and at the end tilt the results in the favour of one side. Here is a look at the 'not-so-famous' parties or alliances that could play a crucial role in Bihar 2015. 

The Third Front: A golden rule of Indian politics is that 'You should never mess with Mulayum Singh Yadav'; the wrestler turned former CM of Uttar Pradesh is not known to forgive his detractors so easily. The leaders of the Grand Alliance were made aware of this when the SP supremo not only walked out of the Nitish led front but joined hands with the Pappu Yadav's JAM to float a rival coalition that threatens to wean away some votes that would have otherwise gone to the ruling combination. 

The 'Socialist Secular Morcha' as it is being termed is targeting the powerful Muslim - Yadav vote bank which till about a decade ago was the primary support base of Lalu Yadav. There is no doubt that Samajwadi Party (SP) supremo Mulayum is the tallest Yadav leader in the country and he is expected to wield some influence in western parts of Bihar, mainly in the district bordering UP. Besides, the presence of Pappu Yadav's Jan Adikhar Morcha (JAM) will boost the alliance's chances, particularly in his stronghold of Madhepura. The JAM founder certainly has a point to prove; after being expelled out of the RJD, he would want to make Lalu pay for it. In fact, it is believed that several RJD and JD-U leaders who have been denied tickets by their parties are in talks with the controversial politician ahead of the polls. Former Union Minister Nagamani's Samras Samaj Party (SSP), former Lok Sabha Speaker P A Sangma's Nationalist People's Party (NPP) and former Jhanjharpur MP Devendra Prasad Yadav's Samajwadi Janata Dal - Democratic (SJD-D) too are a part of this combination. 

Of course, it has not been all smooth sailing for this alliance. One of its major constituent - the NCP walked out of the Front citing differences with the SP. Ironcially, NCP leader Tariq Anwar was being projected as the Morcha's CM candidate. 

Nationalist Congress Party: The Sharad Pawar led outfit has certainly made a fool of itself in the Bihar assembly elections. In the beginning it was a part of the Nitih led 'Maha ghatbandhan' but walked out of it after it was given just three seats instead of the 12 that it has asked for. Next, it entered into a pre-poll tie up with the SP and was allocated over 40 seats to contest as a constituent of the Third Front. However, days before the second round of voting, the party snapped all ties with the coalition, accusing Mulayum Singh of being hand in glove with the BJP.  

Kathiar MP and party's Muslim face Tariq Anwar speaking to the media said that his outfit will contest 45 seats alone. The NCP will be a strong contender in the six assembly segments of Kathiar district of Bihar and will again eat into the votes of the Nitish - Lalu alliance. The extent of the damage it causes to the 'secular' parties needs to be seen.

The Left Front: Six Communist parties too are fighting the Bihar polls with the aim of providing a 'viable' alternative to the people as per Communist Party of India (CPI) General Secretary Prakash Karat. The other constituents of the alliance include the CPI-ML, the CPM, the RSP, the Forward Block and the Socialist Union of Communist India - Communist (SUCI-C). The coalition is believed to have substantial base Bhojpur and Beguserai regions of the state but it will be crucial to see if this translates into seats.

All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen: It turns out that all the hullabaloo surrounding Owaisi's debut in Bihar turned out to be a dud. Though he had earlier announced plans of contesting on seats from four districts in the Seemanchal region of the state, in a statement made this past week, the AIMIM chief has said that his outfit will only contest from six assembly seats. This move should come as a big relief for the mega coalition since it was believed that Owaisi could end up splitting the Muslim vote which till sometime back was said to be firmly behind Nitish and Lalu.

Shiv Sena: A partner in the government headed by the BJP in Maharashra, the Uddhav Thackeray led outfit's entry into the fray is likely to affect the chances of some NDA candidates in Bihar. The saffron outfit which is regularly in the news for harassing Bihari migrants in Mumbai is hoping to capitalize on disgruntled BJP leaders to help it open its account in the northern state. Though even opening its account will be a big achievement for the Sena, it could play the spoiler for the NDA on some closely fought seats.

Bahujan Samajwadi Party: Though the Mayawati led party once had representatives in the Bihar state assembly, today the BSP's prospects look bleak. The party on its part is contesting all 243 seats but it will take more than a miracle to even win a single seat. As per the plan, the BSP is targeting the Dalit and women voters to do well in the polls.

Jharkhand Mukhti Morcha: The Shibu Soren led JMM has some support base in parts of southern Bihar with significant tribal populations. The former Jharkhand CM will be banking on these votes to spring a surprise and win a few segments.

P.S: Of late, I have not been regularly updating this blog. Apart from work, the other reason is that I have started a new blog - Raajaniti (Link) dedicated to Indian politics. Henceforth, I will put up posts on this topic on both these blogs. 

Also, I would request you to check out the new blog and please provide your valuable feedback.

KISS & MAKE UP?

WHY THE BJP AND THE SHIV SENA SHOULD COME TOGETHER

Many expected that the drama that unfolded on the floor of the Maharashtra assembly couple of weeks ago as the BJP government won a controversial trust vote was the final nail in the coffin of the two and a half decade old alliance between the BJP and the Shiv Sena. However, reports in the media have indicated that the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has decided to take matters in its own hands and play the peace maker between the former allies. Whether it was the pressure from the RSS or NCP chief Sharad Pawar's warning to his cadres to be ready for snap polls, Maharashtra CM Devendra Fadnavis has made it clear that the doors are still open for the SS to be a part of his government. At the same time, Railway Minister Suresh Prabhu who quit the regional outfit to join the BJP hours before the PM's cabinet expansion, has met Sena president Uddhav Thackeray to sort out differences. While it is too early to speculate, there seem to be renewed efforts on both sides to come to a conclusion regarding the sharing of ministerial berths in the cabinet. With the winter session of the state assembly to start on December 8, here is why the two estranged saffron allies should bury their hatchet and join hands.

(1) Stability: With the new regime 'winning' the trust motion on the basis of a controversial voice vote, it is not yet clear as to how many MLAs are supporting the Fadnavis government in the 288 member state assembly. The BJP which emerged as the single largest party finished with a tally of 122 seats, 23 short of the majority mark. Even if the party convinces smaller players like the Peasants And Workers Party of India (3), the Bahujan Vikas Aaghadi (3), the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (1), the Rashtriya Samaj Paksha (1), the Bharipa Bahujan Mahasangh (1) and 7 independents to support it, their combined strength will be at 138. Whichever way you look at it, the bottom line is clear - BJP will need the outside support of the NCP to pass key legislations in the House. Taking support of a party that is headed by the Pawars and is infamous for rampant corruption scandals involving some of its senior most leaders is definitely not a good idea. Moreover with the former Union Agriculture Minister making it clear that he would not hesitate to withdraw support to the incumbent government in the future, many in the saffron camp will be feeling a bit jittery. Another option is to ask some Sena and Congress MLAs to resign and then contest on a BJP ticket. The saffronists have already mastered this in neighboring Karnataka in 2007. However, that too will draw a lot of criticism from opposition parties and the media. As such, if the Sena can join hands with the BJP, the government will have the backing of at least 185 MLAs in the house and will cruise through its five year term without any major glitch.

(2) Clipping Sharad Pawar's wings: The NCP supremo is a sly fox; in spite of the fact that his party was relegated to the fourth position in the recently concluded polls, he played his cards well. As it became clear that the BJP will fall short of a majority on its own, he offered unconditional outside support to the saffron party 'for the sake of providing a stable government to the people of Maharashtra'. That was a master stroke since it effectively reduced BJP's reliance on the Sena and was the primary reason as to why the two estranged allies could not come together. And a few weeks later came the disclaimer when the Maratha strongman asked his cadre to be ready for snap polls anytime indicating that his intentions in case things do not go his way. With the state regime being 'at the mercy' of Sharad Pawar, one can expect him to keep Devendra Fadnavis & Co. on the tenterhooks. After the drubbing that the regional outfit got in the Lok Sabha elections and the subsequent state polls, the BJP and the Sena have a golden opportunity to literally 'finish off' whatever is left of Sharad Pawar's political career. If they can sort their differences, they will make the NCP and most importantly, its chief irrelevant in the politics of Maharashtra for at least five more years.

(3) The BJP-NCP 'unholy' alliance: At a rally in Maharashtra during the state polls, the PM called the NCP as a 'Naturally Corrupt Party'. His analysis was spot-on; many top leaders of the NCP including its chief Sharad Pawar, his nephew and former Deputy CM Ajit and daughter Supriya Sule have a host of corruption cases pending against them. How will the BJP justify this move of accepting support (so what if it is outside) from the Pawars after it ran a high voltage campaign targeting the NCP? There are no permanent friends and enemies in politics. However, the BJP and the NCP coming together is very hard to digest. Now, I know many will say that the same applies to the BJP and the Sena. After all, the Sena chief Uddhav equated the BJP central leadership to Afzal Khan - the commander who was sent by Adil Shah to quell the revolt of Shivaji and a much hated figure in the western state. In spite of all these, one cannot deny that the two parties are ideological allies and have been together for 25 years before their bitter divorce a few months ago. Moreover, if the BJP regime goes ahead and launches a probe into alleged scams of former NCP ministers, there is no way that the Pawars will continue to support the Fadnavis regime. As such, it is but logical for the BJP to severe all ties with the NCP and renew their friendship with the Sena.

(4) The Sena needs the BJP...: Yes, you read it right! The Shiv Sena which has been out of power for 15 years in the state needs to be in the government desperately so that they do not slip into political oblivion. The death of charismatic leader and founder Bal Thakeray as well as the split in the ranks following the exit of Raj has led to a large section of traditional Sena workers to gravitate towards the BJP, especially after the elevation of Narendra Modi. Moreover in the last one year several party leaders, dissatisfied with the leadership style of Uddhav have switched sides. The Sainiks were confident that they would win more seats than their former ally in 2014; however, their dreams came crashing down as the BJP won twice as many as seats as the Sena. Lastly, the SS is in power in the Mumbai Municipality (the richest municipality in the country) with the support of the BJP. Although it did much better than the Congress and the NCP this year in the state polls, there is no doubt that the Sena is at its weakest in the last two decades. There is an urgent need for Uddhav to rebuild the party and take it beyond the Konkan and central Maharashtra. For this, it is but necessary for the Sena to be in power.

(5) ... and the BJP needs the Sena too: The Sena has 18 MPs in the Parliament and is one of the largest players in the NDA. Besides, the party has three seats in the Rajya Sabha too. While the saffron outfit has a clear cut majority in the Lower House, it lacks the numbers in the Upper House. As such, it needs allies, especially one like the Sena which has stuck with it even when the BJP was out of power for a decade. Also, a Sena as the primary opposition will be too difficult for the BJP to handle.

MAHASANGRAM - PART V

THE RESULTS

For the BJP, the year 2014 continues to be perhaps, the best year in its three decade long history, that is, if we choose to overlook the setbacks in the by-elections (Link). The saffron outfit created history as it emerged as the single largest party in Maharashtra in spite of bitter fallout with its oldest ally - the Shiv Sena (SS). After the break-up of the two major alliances in the western state, nobody would have anticipated that the BJP could put up such an impressive show, so what if it failed to cross the half-way mark on its own considering that it was a five sided contest. The Shiv Sena did well to win nearly 20 seats more than in 2009 but the performance was far from satisfactory. The Congress and the NCP who had jointly ruled here for three consecutive terms had to face the heat. However, the numbers that they got were better than those in the General Polls fought in May. The MNS was obliterated, quite literally.

The wave of anti-incumbency against the Congress-NCP combine, the numerous corruption allegations against the leaders of the two parties and the image of the PM Narendra Modi seem to have helped the BJP in registering an impressive tally of 123 seats, its best figures in the state so far. There were rumors if the party had not done the right thing by pulling the plug on its alliance with the Shiv Sena, considering that it did not have a solid base in rural Maharashtra. However, the Modi wave worked in its favor; it managed to woo several leaders from the ruling combine on to its side besides holding on to its alliances with several smaller outfits. On the other hand, its former partner, the Shiv Sena was dealt a rude shock. Its 'Uttha' campaign failed as it finished a distant second, winning almost half the number of seats that the BJP bagged. The death of Balasaheb and the rise of Modi prevented it from winning a major share of the anti-government vote. Meanwhile, the Congress should be happy that in spite of winning just 2 seats in the parliamentary polls, it got 42 seats in the state. The NCP was saved the blushes as it managed to do well in its bastion of western Maharashtra and finished with a tally of 41 seats. Raj Thackeray's MNS was decimated; the party dropped 12 seats to end with just one seat. Owaisi's AIMIM and the PWPI (Peasant's and Worker's Party of India) won two seats each.

Perhaps, the biggest winner in the Maharashtra 2014 state polls is the party president Amit Shah. Questions were being raised about his leadership after the BJP's polarized campaign in the UP by-elections failed to get the seats. However, the resounding victory in the western state even after the break-up with the Sena has made the former Gujarat Home Minister the second most influential leader in the saffron camp behind Modi. The results are a big thumbs up to PM Narendra Modi too. He addressed as many as 26 rallies in the state, tearing into the Congress and the NCP while refraining from attacking the SS out of respect for late Balasaheb Thackeray. Five months into office, the Modi waves is fast transforming into a 'tsunami'.

The losers, on the other hand are many. With just 60 odd seats, the Shiv Sena has to reconcile to the fact that it is no more the bigger player in the 'saffron alliance' if it ever joins hands with the BJP in the future. The fact that the party could not even cross the 70 mark even after being in opposition for the last 15 years shows that the SS is on the decline and that Uddhav Thackeray & Co need to introspect to identify the many factors that are ailing the regional outfit. The decimation of the of Raj Thackeray and his MNS is another highlight of the polls. After scoring a blank in the General Elections earlier this year and being reduced to a single seat in the state assembly, many have even begun to write the political obituary of Raj and his party. The Congress too has been forced to eat the humble pie, yet again. Rahul Gandhi's six rallies in the state have not helped the party at all and it seems that the grand old party has nothing to combat the NaMo bandwagon. Moreover, the NCP which was the second largest constituent of the UPA has called off its alliance with the INC. And 2014 continues to bring more miseries upon the Pawars and the NCP. After the hammering in the big polls, the party managed to win just 41 seats in the state.

For more posts in this series: Mahasangram (Link)

The Chart displaying the results was created on Meta-Chart (Link)

MAHASANGRAM - Part IV

THE ISSUES THAT MATTER

Of the four states that go to the poll this year, the biggest is the western state of Maharashtra. After being in power for the last 15 years, the results of the Lok Sabha have come as a jolt to the ruling combine. Together the Congress and its ally, the NCP were literally demolished as they faced a strong opposition - the 'Mahayuti' that the saffron allies, the Shiv Sena and the BJP had stitched together. Even the presence of Raj Thackeray's MNS could not benefit the UPA like they did in 2009 when the anti-incumbency votes were split into the two fractions of the Sena. While many would have expected the NDA to sweep Maharashtra, the recent poll setbacks to the saffron outfit in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, Karnataka, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradsh (Link) seems to have put a serious question before the BJP - can it replicate its superlative performance even in the state assembly polls in winter, especially in Mumbai where it has been warming the Opposition benches since ages. The Congress is trying to get over its disastrous defeat; retaining Maharashtra could signal the beginning of a long pending revival. Meanwhile, state politics is incomplete without considering the three regional parties. Unlike the heartland, the two national parties are not the main players here. Let us see what parameters will impact the outcome of the Maharashtra state assembly polls in 2014.

As they say, united we win and divided we fall. The results of the October elections could simply boil down to the fact that which coalition is able to sustain itself in spite of all the drama over the seat sharing talks. Both the Congress-NCP as well as the Sena-BJP know very well that it is in their best interest to make sure that their respective partnerships survive. However, less than a month before voting, the UPA and the NDA as we know them today, are witnessing media war over seat sharing arrangements. The saffron alliance which stretches back to 25 years is looking extremely shaking; the BJP, high on its earth-shattering performance in the General Polls has rejected the 119-178 formula brokered by Bal Thackeray and Pramod Mahajan in the early 90s. While the state BJP wants to fight on 130 seats, the Sena has refused to give anything more than 125. Besides, Uddhav Thackeray's portrayal as the alliance's CM candidate by his outfit has not been taken kindly by the BJP. On the other hand, the NCP has upped the ante; Pawar's party wants to be an equal player in the coalition. After winning twice as many parliamentary seats as the INC in May, the regional parties wants to have a relook at the earlier formula. Meanwhile, the plea seems to have fallen on deaf years as the Congress has refused to back down from its stand. With cracks developing in the two fronts, it remains to be seen if the allies can bury their differences and patch up. Failing that, it could be a five cornered contest for Maharashtra - BJP vs SS vs Congress vs NCP vs MNS. In fact, what could be more interesting is the realignment of forces; the NCP could tie up with either the BJP or even the Shiv Sena; the BJP could also join hands with the MNS and so on.

As if the tussle over the seat sharing was not enough, the Congress and the NCP are fighting anti-incumbency stretching over a period of 15 long years. The two parties came together after the saffron allies were beaten in the 1999 state polls and ever since have been in power in Mumbai. They were also a part of the Manmohan government for two consecutive terms. The results of the recently concluded Lok Sabha polls has certainly sent shock waves to the incumbent regime. The two partners could only get six seats even as the mega coalition of the BJP bagged the remaining 42. There are speculations that the results may be repeated yet again later this year. The UPA somehow managed to stay afloat in 2009 thanks to Raj Thackeray's MNS splitting the anti-establishment votes. After drawing a blank in the May elections, the MNS will find it difficult to cut into the traditional Sena votes. In the aftermath of the Lok Sabha defeat, there were calls to sack the serving CM Chauhan. However, he managed to stay afloat with the blessings of the High Command. On their part, the ruling combine is busying showcasing the development projects that were completed during its tenure including the Mumbai-Worli Sealink, the Mumbai Monorail, the Mumbai Metro and so on. However, whether the voters buy this argument or not is something that will be clear only on the voting day - October 15.

Remember the Adarsh Housing Society Scam. Yes, the same scandal wherein flats in Mumbai's posh Colaba area which were to be allocated for the widows of Kargil martyrs were grabbed by top several politicians. It was the same episode that saw the sacking of the then CM Ashok Chavan. Corruption is for sure, going to be one of the biggest issues in the upcoming state elections. In fact, three other former CMs, all belonging to the Congress seem to have been in the list of beneficiaries including Vilasrao Deshmukh, Sushilkumar Shinde and Shivajirao Patil Nilangekar. This has become a big embarrassment for the INC. On the other hand, the NCP finds itself in trouble in the multi-crore Irrigation Scam. Deputy CM Ajit Da who was the state irrigation minister for two terms is accused of siphoning off crores of rupees. Besides, his irresponsible statements like the one he made in April last year when he asked if he should urinate into dams to fill water has been panned both by the Opposition and the public.

While corruption has become synonymous with the Congress, the ghost of Babri Masjid and the Godhra riots have kept haunting the BJP for long. Add to it the Sena whose founder Balasaheb had openly asked for voted in the name of religion. 'Communalism' is one of the biggest talking points before that state polls. The force feeding of a Muslim employee in the Maharashtra Bhavan by Sena MPs during the time of Ramazan is going to be raked up by the Congress and the NCP. The ruling parties on their part have already given 5 percent reservation for the minority community apart from 16 percent reservation for Marathas. Similarly, one can also expect the two Senas to raise the 'Marathi Manoos' or the 'Sons of the Soil' argument.  Anti-northern Indian stirs and protests may become common in the coming days.

For long, there have been demands for a separate state of Vidarbha to be carved out of eastern Maharashtra. With the creation of Telangana, this clamour has only increased. In this election season, you should not be surprised if these demands only grow stronger. On this issue, even allies can have a difference of opinion. For long, the Sena has vehemently opposed any kind of division; on the other hand, the BJP has always favored smaller states. Another related topic is the future of Belgaum. Presently in northern Karnataka, there is a significant section of the population here that feels that they should be a part of the Marathi state. However, this claim has been rejected by Karnataka on repeated occasions.

Finally, let us have a look at the leaders who could hold the key as to which party or alliance does well. Sharad Pawar is perhaps, the tallest leader in the state today. However, there is little doubt that his political fortunes, like that of his party are on the decline. After the NCP was routed in most of its strongholds, it is important for the Maratha strongman and his outfit to do well in the October polls. He has taken a big gamble by ditching the Congress and it remains to be seen if it pays off. His nephew Ajit Pawar has made clear his chief ministerial ambitions in a recent interview. With Narayan Rane being appointed as the head of the party's electoral campaign, incumbent CM Prithviraj Chavan has his task cut out. While he has to make sure that the INC does well, he also has to hope that his followers win more seats than those in the Rane camp. Meanwhile, Ashok Chavan can be the dark horse in the CM's race. However, giving the top post to him could backfire on the Congress thanks to the stigma of the Adarsh Scam. In the saffron alliance, Uddhav Thackeray has a point to prove; he can put to rest all the questions over his leadership if he can lead the Sena to an impressive tally. Breaking his family tradition, the Sena pramukh has made it clear that he wants to occupy the CM's post. Finally, for the BJP, the untimely death of Gopinath Munde has jeopardized their plans. Other leaders including Nitin Gadkari lack popular support outside their respective regions.

For more posts in this series: Mahasangram (Link)

MAHASANGRAM - Part III

SENA CHIEF TALKS TOUGH AHEAD OF STATE POLLS

Courtesy: Afternoon

After being edged out by the mega coalition in Bihar and facing shock defeats in Karnataka and MP, see who is preaching the BJP now. It's their own ally and Sena pramukh Uddhav Thackeray. In an editorial in his party's mouthpiece - the Saamna, Uddhav has said that the saffron outfit's defeat in the by-elections needs to be a warning bell for the 'Mahayuti' or the Grand Alliance in Maharashtra. Despite of the coalition decimating the UPA in the big polls earlier this year, he cautioned that victory is in no way guaranteed in November state elections. As if to drive home his point, Thackeray junior has emphasized that the parameters that the voters keep in mind while electing their MLA is drastically different from those the consider before making their choice for the Lok Sabha elections. Taking a dig at his alliance partner, the Shiv Sena chief has said that the state cannot be won just by talking about the 'Modi wave'. Still coming to terms with a rather embarrassing defeat and the controversy regarding Rajnath Singh's family, Uddhav's veiled attacks were the last thing that the BJP would have liked to face. However, with the saffron outfit not very keen to play second fiddle in the assembly elections, the BJP's loss provided a nice opportunity for the Sena to hit back at its oldest partner and show them who is the boss, at least as far as the western state is concerned.

The relations between the saffron allies have been far from cordial in the last few months. So 'confident' had the cadre become after their resounding victory in the Lok Sabha polls that time back, some sections within the BJP had asked the party leadership to break off its ties with Matoshri and join hand with Raj Thackeray led MNS so that they could dictate terms. Though such plans did not materialize, Amit Shah's speech on his official appointment as the new president of the BJP where he said that his party would form the next government in Mumbai has certainly not gone well with the SS. Considering that Shah is extremely close to the PM, there is no doubt that his views on this matter have the endorsement from Modi too. This certainly puts the Sena in a tough position. After all, it has always been the dominant NDA partner as far as Maharashtra is concerned. By hitting out at the BJP, Uddhav is subtly trying to drive home an important point - the Shiv Sena is not Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC) and he is certainly not Kuldeep Bishnoi. While the saffron outfit may have not adhered to the coalition dharma with its smaller ally in Haryana, the Sena is not going to allow itself to be 'bullied' by the BJP. With talks regarding seat-sharing arrangements coming up in the next few days, the Sena's aggressive stance is seen by many as a clear message to its saffron partner that it will lead the 'Mahayuti' in the state polls this November.

Though it did extremely well in the General polls, the real test for the tiger will be in the upcoming state elections. The regional player which has been put of power in the state for 15 years has been weakened following the split in its ranks after Raj Thackeray launched the MNS and the death of its founder and one of the most popular yet controversial politicians in the country - Balasaheb Thackeray in 2012. Ever since Uddhav was placed on the gaddi in 2013, there were rumors of discontent against his style of leadership which was termed as 'incompetent' and 'uninspiring'. Even before the May elections, a host of big leaders switched over to the UPA, claiming that the new party chief was not in touch with the Sainiks on the ground, an art that his father had mastered. Aware that the state elections are a 'Do or Die' battle for the political survival of both him and his outfit, Uddhav has broken off all traditions and has made it clear that he was ready to become the Chief Minister of Maharashtra if the SS-BJP alliance comes to power. While his father had the charisma to hold the Sena together from his base in Matoshri, the SS chief realizes that only power could give him the authority to prevent any further revolts within his outfit. With so much on the line, there is no way that he is going to be cowed down by the BJP in his own backyard. As the various partners within the 'Mahayuti' sit together to finalize the seat-sharing terms, Uddhav Tahackeray has, without mincing any words told the BJP to control is 'ambitions' and not to take the Shiv Sena lightly.

For more posts in this series: Mahasangram (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: Afternoon 
Original: Maha Yuti seals seat-sharing pact (Link)

MAHASANGRAM - Part II

NOT-SO-FRIENDLY BANTER: BJP vs SENA & CONG vs NCP

Maharashtra is one state, where till recently the battle lines were clearly drawn between the two major political blocks in the country today. Of course, while making this observation, I have chosen to overlook both the Third Front which was 'humiliated' in the last General Elections as well as Raj Thackeray's MNS which is yet to pack a punch in the political scenario of the state. Anyway, dubbed as the saffron allies, the BJP and the Shiv Sena (SS) have been together since the early 90s. At a time when other political parties very still wary of forging electoral ties with each other and the 'Coalition Era' was in its early days, BJP leader Pramod Mahajan and Sena chief Balasaheb Thackeray stuck a partnership which is still 'unbroken'. Although the two parties managed to win power in 1994 and formed the government in Maharashtra under the leadership of Manohar Joshi, they were voted out of power in 1999 and have been warning the Opposition benches in the state assembly ever since. Meanwhile, the Marathi outfit was also a part of the various NDA regimes at the Centre. On the other end of the political spectrum is the Congress-NCP alliance - a bond that has lasted for 15 years now. Pawar who broke away from the Congress to float the NCP over Sonia Gandhi's foreign origins had no problems whatsoever in allying with his former outfit for multiple terms in Mumbai as well as New Delhi.

If you think that after years of being together, the two allies may be geared up to put up a 'united' front ahead of the 2014 state polls, then you are wrong. Days before the electoral campaign begins, reports of rift between the coalition partners has 'spiced' up the battle for Maharashtra. Allegation of big-brotherly treatment, differences over seat sharing arrangements and 'irresponsible' statements by leaders has put serious question marks over the future of the major alliances in the state. In this post, I will analyze the two combinations, the issues that have caused fiction between them, the options in front of them and what will happen if the allies decide to go their separate ways.

The End of the road for the Saffron Brigade?

Nearly three months ago, the BJP-Sena and its other smaller coalition partners in the 'Mahayuti' swept the state winning as many as 42 of the 48 parliamentary seats. However, the relations between the two saffron partners has been far from cordial ever since. In spite of being the second largest constituent of the NDA, the Marathi outfit was given just one ministerial berth in the Central government. Though the Sena tried hard to bargain for more representation in the Modi regime, the PM and his party refused to budge, perhaps buoyed by the fact that they enjoy a comfortable majority in the Lower House. The SS too on its part has angered its partner by unilaterally declaring its supremo Uddhav Thackeray as the chief ministerial candidate of the saffron camp, a move that has not gone too well with the BJP. In what is seen as a clear signal to the cadre to 'think beyond the Sena', Amit Shah in his maiden speech as the new party president, has announced that the BJP would form the next government in Maharashtra, a clear indication to Matoshri that the national party would no more play second fiddle to the SS in the Vidhan Sabha polls. Since the 90s, the Shiv Sena fields candidates on nearly 170 seats while leaving the rest - approximately 120 to the BJP.

After decimating the Congress across the country in the big polls and reducing several regional players to 'irrelevance', the BJP has set its goals of expanding in hitherto 'unknown lands', including parts of rural Maharashtra. One of the reasons to appoint Amit Shah as the successor to Rajnath Singh is to expand the saffron outfit beyond its traditional base in the Hindi heartland. After registering such a big win, the party is confident that it will do exceedingly well even in the state polls, irrespective of whether it joins hand with any of the two Senas. A second reason why the BJP wants to renegotiate the seat sharing agreement with the Sena is that it has to accommodate four other smaller players who have joined hands with it, namely the Republican Party of India - Athavle (RPI-A), the Swabhiman Shetkari Sanghatana (SSS), the Rashtriya Samaj Paksha (RSP) and the Shiv Sangram. Finally, another cause of worry for the BJP is the with the Sena fielding more candidates, the chances of the next CM being from the former is even less than that of the Indian cricket team winning a test series away from the Sub-continent. The SS on its part, has tried to 'emotionally blackmail' the national party, reminding it that the Thakerays had stood with it during times, thick and thin. With Sena parmukh declaring his intentions of contesting elections, there is no way that the SS is going to accept anybody else as the next CM of the state in case the saffron camp does win the polls. Moreover, with question marks being raised about his style of leadership and following the death of its charismatic leader Balasaheb Thakeray, the SS and Uddhav have a point to prove and silence its numerous critics, once and for all.

With tempers flying high, the saffron alliance is perhaps at its weakest in its life span of two decades. While both partners may think that they will do well even if they go alone, especially with the strong anti-incumbency against the INC-NCP government the simple truth is that they will not perform well in case they break-up. Though Narendra Modi helped the BJP do well in Maharashtra, the untimely deaths of Pramod Mahajan and Gopinath Munde has robbed the party of a credible face in the state. Also, the thought of allying with Raj Thackeray seems to be far fledged considering the performance of the MNS in the Lok Sabha elections. Similarly, the SS too does not have much of presence in several parts of the Maharashtra and hence cannot even dream of forming a regime on its own. Most importantly, the split in the partnership will end up dividing the anti-establishment votes, thereby helping the INC and the NCP. If the partners can bury their differences and fight the polls together, they are going to storm Maharashtra and form the next government. There is no doubt that the seat sharing arrangements between the two parties have to be revisited and newer allies need to be accommodated. However, if the two parties head towards 'splitsville', the two outfits might be forced to occupy the Opposition benches for a fourth consecutive term.

Are the Congress and the NCP headed for a bitter divorce?

Though they may have shared power for 15 long years in the state, the relations between the INC and Pawar's outfit have never been 'smooth'. However, the point to note is that since the beginning of the year, the tensions between them have only escalated, serious threatening their performance even if they manage to somehow hold on to their partnership. Before the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, senior leaders of the NCP including Shrad Pawar and Praful Patel had predicted that the NDA would bag more seats than the UPA. While this did come true, the paltry performance of the Congress-led coalition in the state of Maharashtra where it was reduced to six seats was certainly not expected. Accusing the incumbent CM Prithviraj Chauhan of failing in his duties, the NCP raised the bogey of revolt, asking the INC to sack him. At the same time, several NCP leaders suggested that they should contest more seats than the Congress in the state assembly elections considering that they had won more parliamentary seats than the national party three months ago. Chauhan, a Gandhi loyalist survived. After getting the blessings of the party High Command, he decided to up the ante against the NCP. At a party rally, he declared that his party was ready to go it all alone for the polls.

From the NCP's point of view, the party believes that the perception that it has been a steady fast ally of the 'corrupt' Congress has been solely responsible for its failure in the recent elections. As such, if the Congress-NCP alliance could project a new face in the assembly polls, there are chances that the anti-incumbency wave could be countered, at least to some extent. There is also a certain section that feels that dumping the Congress and fighting the polls alone could actually help 'cut electoral loses'. In that case, the party could tie-up with either the BJP or the Sena if the saffron alliance breaks up. The 2014 state elections are extremely crucial to the NCP and you can expect the leadership to bargain hard with the Congress. The INC knows that after the drubbing that it got, coming back to power for a straight fourth term is close to 'impossible'. However, with the Opposition lacking a credible face in the state, the INC feels that it has a better chance to do well in the local polls. Secondly, Congress leaders feel that the NCP cannot put the blame of the defeat squarely on the Congress and get away with it, especially after several alleged cases of corruption against Sharad Pawar and his nephew Ajit Pawar.

I think, the two parties have no option but to stick together. Even in that case, they are heading for a rout in the state polls. Probably, the only chance that the allies have of forming the next government if if there is a split in the saffron alliance. Even in that scenario, getting the required numbers will be a herculean task. With 44 seats in the Lok Sabha, the Congress is still licking the wounds of its defeat. With the National Conference walking out of the UPA and several regional players cosying up to the Modi regime, the grand old party needs to keep the UPA united. As such, it cannot afford to anger its oldest existing ally. At the same time, the NCP is no position to fight the polls alone. Like the Congress, the party is battling corruption charges with its senior leader Ajit Pawar accused of being a part of the multi-crore Irrigation Scam. Moreover, the two parties are also facing internal rebellion. Revenue Minister and Malvan strongman Narayan Rane has raised the banner of revolt against Chauhan whereas NCP leader Chaggan Bhujbal is known to be contemplating a switch over to the saffron camp. Lastly, a divorce here will also split the minority votes, thereby benefiting the BJP-SS alliance further. Also, the NCP's 'grand idea' of tying up with either the BJP or the Sena to form the next regime is highly unlikely to materialize, primarily because it will find it difficult even to go past 40 seat mark.

For more posts in this series: Mahasangram (Link)

MAHASANGRAM - Part I

WHAT'S ON THE LINE FOR THE MAJOR REGIONAL PARTIES

The beauty of politics in a vast country like ours is that every few months, some or the other state goes to the polls. It has been less than two months since the results of the 2014 General Elections were announced and the battle for the states of Maharashtra, Haryana and Jammu Kashmir scheduled later in the year has already begun. The BJP which recorded its best ever figures is keen to carry forward the momentum; aware that the it just cannot afford to drop its guard, considering its dependence on regional satraps like Jaya, Mamta and Navin to pass key legislation in the Rajya Sabha. With the Modi government yet to do anything significant on its promise of 'acche din', victory in the states is far from guaranteed. On the other hand, the Congress which failed to even cross the 50 mark in the General Elections is hoping to thwart the NaMo bandwagon by giving a tough fight to the NDA. The grand old party is expected to give its best shot after questions were raised about its future, especially under the leadership of the Gandhis. With the Third Front being wiped off in the parliamentary elections and its constituents not having any major presence in any of these states, it is rather easy to write it off at least as far as the upcoming polls are concerned.

The failure of the federal front and the magnitude of BJP's victory has raised several questions over the future of regional satraps in the country. I know many will point out that even the Congress - the largest party in the country too was virtually wiped out even in its traditional strongholds and hence the superb numbers got by the saffron outfit could be passed off as a 'fluke'. However, when was the last time you saw Mayawati's BSP failing to even open its account or Mulayum struggling to win seats outside of his family dominions. Moreover, in the era of coalition politics, the saffron outfit's tally of 282 is unprecedented; no party has been able to enjoy such a comfortable majority on the floor of the house since 1984. Against this backdrop and with the elections to the Maharashtra state assembly just around the corner, I want to analyze the poll prospects of the three major regional parties in the state. With most of the smaller parties failing to do well in the recently concluded Lok Sabha polls, it will be interesting to see if the NCP and the two Senas can deliver a power packed performance this winter.

Will the Tiger make a Kill? To understand how the fortunes of a political outfit can change over a span of few months, one needs to trace the graph of one of the country's oldest regional party - the Shiv Sena (SS). After

Shiv Sena supremo Uddhav Thackeray

the death of the firebrand Marathi leader, the controversial yet charismatic Bal Thackeray, many felt that the SS would die a slow death. In fact, many political observers had virtually written the obituary of the Sena - three consecutive defeats in the state assembly polls, the split in the ranks after Raj Thackeray walked out of the organization and the 'inability' of present chief and Thackeray Senior's son Uddhav to rally the cadre behind him were cited as the prime reasons. Even before the big polls, as many as four incumbent MPs deserted the party to join the UPA after accusing Uddhav of being 'inaccessible'. Probably, the biggest blow came when party's spokesperson Rahul Narvekar who is known to be close to the Sena's first family left the SS to join the NCP. At the same time, with Raj Thackeray taking on a more aggressive stance on the 'Sons of the soil' movement, many believed that he was the right person to take the Thackeray legacy forward. Moreover, in the run up to the General Elections, the relations between the Sena and the BJP were far from cordial, especially with the BJP sending overtures to the MNS. However, the May 16 results might have brought lot of relief to Uddhav. Even as the NDA swept to power, the Sena won a staggering 18 of the 20 seats it contested in the state.

Buoyed by the success of the big polls, the Shiva Sena and its Pramukh are sensing victory ahead of the state polls too. However, the big worrying factor will be the relations with its saffron ally - the BJP. After crossing the 272 mark on its own, the saffron outfit now wants to dictate terms in the seat sharing arrangement in Maharashtra. According to some reports, the BJP want the two allies to re-negotiate the terms of alliance under which the national party contests 117 seats while leaving the remaining 170 odd to the Sena in the state assembly elections. This agreement brokered by Bal Thackeray and Pramod Mahajan effectively rules out the possibility of a Chief Minister from the BJP. In fact, in spite of being the second largest constituent of the NDA, Modi inducted just one MP from the SS in his cabinet. While the Sainiks were said to be sulking, Modi refused to budge. After all, the SS had initially suggested the candidature of Sushma Swaraj for the post of NDA's PM nominee. While he may have survived the scare ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, it remains to be seen if Uddhav can somehow manage to save the two decade old alliance with the BJP. Meanwhile, the SS chief has already made public his ambitions to become the CM of the state. Another cause of concern would be to see off the threat posed by his rival and cousin - Raj Thackeray. Although the MNS failed to cause any split in the anti-UPA votes like it did in 2009, there is little doubt that the it would pose a big threat to the prospects of the SS in the state elections. The 2014 Maharashtra assembly polls is a big test for the Sena and its supremo; a victory signal the rise of a new regional satrap on the Indian political scenario and would justify Bal Thackeray's decision of choosing his real son over his nephew. A defeat though would be catastrophic and one should not be surprised if it would be a blow from which the Sena never emerges again.

Is the clock ticking for NCP? While NDA's victory may have just heralded the beginning of 'acche din' for the Shiv Sena, the other big regional player - the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) seems to be heading

NCP chief Sharad Pawar

towards its worst showing in the state. 2014 has been a forgetful year for former Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar's outfit. Having been in power in alliance with the Congress for 15 years in Mumbai and for a decade at the Centre as a leading constituent of the UPA, the party seems to be in dire straits (Link). In the May 2014 polls, Pawar's party managed to win just 4 seats even as the BJP-Sena alliance walked away with a grand tally of 42 seats. In fact, the outfit failed to do well in other states too and in the process, ended up losing its tag as a 'national' party. The biggest reason for this rout was the fact that most of the party's top leadership has been caught in some controversy or scandal. As the Agriculture Minister, supremo Sharad Pawar was a complete failure; in fact, he was seen doing more work as the Chairman of the ICC than taking steps to curb price rise. His daughter Supriya Sule who was one of the four NCP candidates to make the cut to the Lok Sabha in 2014 has been accused of owning stakes in IPL teams some years ago. And how can one forget the one and only Ajit Pawar. Known in party circles as Ajit Dada, the nephew of the Pawar senior is a loud mouth. Apart from being one of the prime accused in the multi-crore Irrigation Scam, the Deputy CM is known to speak 'rubbish' at political rallies. Meanwhile, even the relations between the Congress and the NCP were far from cordial in the run up to the polls. Perhaps sensing that the odds were stacked against his outfit, Sharad Pawar decided to chicken out and instead became a Rajya Sabha MP. Moreover, the Maratha strongman and his colleague Praful Patel had on numerous occasions predicted that the NDA would do better than the UPA causing severe embarrassment to the Congress.

Now coming to the state elections, the problems for NCP still persist. The relations with the Congress have only soured further; the party's bid to have the incumbent CM Prithviraj Chauhan replaced was foiled after the Congress President refused to budge. Buoyed by the confidence that Sonia Gandhi has shown in him, Chauhan has made it clear that the Congress is ready to go alone in the state polls. At the same time, Pawar's outfit too has gone on the offensive, asking the INC to allocate it more seats since it out did the national party in the big elections. With the tensions between the two parties escalating by the day, seat sharing is going to be extremely difficult. Apart from the coalition troubles, the NCP, like the Congress is fighting anti-incumbency spanning over 15 years. With the INC-NCP government not having a spectacular report card to boast of, winning a straight forth term is next to impossible. At the same time, the NCP does not have any strong leaders to get the votes. The party chief is aging and if the May 2014 polls are anything to go by, he seems to have lost a lot of ground even in his traditional stronghold of Western Maharashtra. Ajit Pawar and R R Patil too have seen a decline in their popularity. Former Home Minister Chaggan Bhujbal was reported to be keen to rejoin the Shiv Sena till his request was publicly turned down by Uddhav Thackeray. The state polls are a big test for the NCP; although there is no doubt that they are going to drop seats, the party leadership will hope to cut down its loses. One possibility that the NCP will be looking at is a possible break-up between the BJP-SS alliance after the polls. In that scenario, both the saffron parties may contemplate joining hands with Pawar to form the next government in Maharashtra.

Make or Break Moment for Raj: Coming to the third regional player in the state, the state assembly polls could be the big test for Raj Thackeray and his Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS). Formed in early 2006

MNS leader Raj Thackeray

after the dynamic Raj walked out of the Shiv Sena over differences with his cousin Uddhav, the MNS is yet to make a big mark in state politics. Of course, it did exceedingly well in 2009 when it cut into the NDA votes helping the UPA do well, first in the General Elections and then in the state polls. The party had a good debut winning as many as 13 seats in the Maharashtra assembly. However, ever since that spark, the MNS has failed to 'sparkle'. During the campaign for the 2014 polls, the BJP tried to bring the two Senas together as part of the 'Mahayuti' to fight the UPA. However, the plan failed with the Sena accusing the BJP of going against the coalition dharma. When Raj declared his support to the candidature of Narendra Modi as the PM of India, BJP President Rajnath Singh turned down the offer, making it clear that the alliance with Shiv Sena was strong. Anyway, many were expecting that the MNS would still go on to win at least one seat and dash the hopes of the BJP-SS combine on several seats. In fact, the hopes of the UPA of doing well in the western state were completely based on the MNS factor. After all, both the Senas have their ideologies based in the 'Sons of the Soil' movement. However, all that proved to be a dud with Raj's outfit scoring a duck.

With the state polls just a few months away, the MNS still has a lot of ground to cover. Of course, while the results of the 2014 elections may be something that Raj and his followers would like to put behind them, the fact remains that the MNS has a strong presence in several pockets in the state. However, the challenge would be to convert that support into seats. A big fillip for the MNS would be if Raj Thackeray would contest the polls. In absence of other famous leaders, Raj's entry into electoral fray would instill a lot of confidence in the party cadre. Going beyond the 20 mark will be difficult. However, getting less than that would certainly raise questions over Raj's leadership, especially if the Shiv Sena chief Uddhav becomes the CM of Maharashtra. The chances of MNS being the part of the next government are extremely remote; the only possible case would be if the BJP ties up with the MNS and the NCP in the post poll scenario. And to be frank, that is highly unlikely .

For more posts in this series: Mahasangram (Link)

MAHARASHTRA & LOK SABHA 2014

UPA OR NDA: WHO WILL WIN THIS FACE-OFF?

With 48 seats, Maharashtra is numerically the second most important state from the perspective of the upcoming General Elections. In this key state, the battle lines have been drawn as the UPA comprising of the Congress and the NCP are taking on a formidable opposition stitched together by the BJP. Dubbed as the 'Mahayuti' or the 'Grand Alliance', it includes the Shiv Sena, the Republican Party of India (Athavale), the Swabhiman Shektari Sanghatana (SSS) and the Rashtriya Samaj Party (RSP). While the saffron outfit may have built up a strong coalition to take on the ruling regime, there is a constant fear that Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNA), which has stayed away from the formation, may cause a split in the Marathi votes, thereby helping the UPA like it did in 2009. Meanwhile, with the term of the present legislative assembly ending in about six months time, it is highly likely that even the Lok Sabha polls may be dominated by a mixture of local as well as national issues. 

ISSUES

(1) Anti-incumbency... at State and the Centre: The Congress and the NCP has been in power in Maharashtra since 1999. Now this is certainly a fact they can be proud of. But the problem is that the kind of anti-incumbency against the Congress-NCP combine is huge and many believe that after reaching the peak, its performance can only go downwards from here. Besides, all is not smooth between the two alliance partners. Although he did rule out any formal partnership with the BJP, NCP supremo Sharad Pawar and his party colleague Praful Patel have both dismissed the need for a debate on BJP’s PM candidate Narendra Modi’s role in the Gujarat riots. With 'Secularism' being the glue that keeps the UPA together, Pawar's clean chit to Modi has certainly raised many eyebrows.

Adding to their woes is the fact that there is anti-incumbency against the UPA II government at the Centre. Both the Congress and the NCP have been in power in New Delhi since 2004. The disastrous performance of the Manmohan Singh government is going to hit them hard in most states and Maharashtra is no exception. You can expect the BJP and the Senas to raise topics like price rise and inflation on which the Central government has failed to deliver.

(2) Corruption: If there is one issue that UPA II will ever be remembered for, it is for sure going to be its inability to tackle corruption in the country. Countless scams including 2G, Common Wealth Games, Coal-gate and Chopper-gate have proved that neither the grand old party nor the UPA government has the guts to tackle this menace. And the government in Mumbai too is not far behind. The names of several top Congress leaders including former Chief Ministers Vilasrao Deshmukh, Ashok Chavan, Home Minister Sushilkumar Shinde and Shivajirao Nilangekar were named in an inquiry into the Aadarsh Society scam which was partially accept by the state government, that too after a public rap from the Gandhis. Similarly, the multi-crore Irrigation scam and the alleged role of NCP leader Ajit Pawar is another blot on the incumbent regime.

(3) The MNS factor: Former BJP President Nitin Gadkari’s meetings with Raj Thackeray led to many speculations over the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena entering the grand alliance. Considering the domestic politics in the Thackeray household, it seems next to impossible for the two Senas to come together. The UPA is heavily banking on Raj to split the Marathi votes and this seems to be its only hope to end up with a decent tally. However, there were reports in some sections of the media that the MNS may not contest the Lok Sabha polls at all and rather concentrate on the state elections, in bid to consolidate its standings. If this is true, then the BJP and its allies can be expected to walk away with sizable number of seats from Maharashtra.

CONTENDERS

Now that the formations are clear, I think that we should talk about the alliances and their chances instead of focusing on individual parties.

(1) The UPA: The Congress is on a sticky wicket. Prithviraj Chavan who was handpicked by Sonia Gandhi to be the Chief Minister has done a fair job. However, the rejection and then the partial acceptance of the Aadarsh Inquiry report – a move which seems to have been taken under political compulsions by his government will hit his personal credibility. The scam has dented the prospects of the grand old party and is a near death blow to the political ambitions of Ashok Chavan. With Vilasrao Deshmukh dead, it is up to the SC leader and Home Minister Sushilkumar Shinde to lead the Congress campaign here. As such it will be in the interest of the Congress if the leader from Solapur can control his language – his remarks on media and Arvind Kejriwal are only going to woo the people away from the UPA.

The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) has never looked so weak ever since its inception in 1999 (Link). Like its erstwhile UPA ally - the DMK, the NCP has become synonymous with corruption. Most opinion polls predict that Pawar's outfit may be reduced to single digits. Unlike the great captains who prefer to go down with the sinking ship, the Maratha strongman has got himself elected to the Rajya Sabha. Pawar's daughter Supriya Sule and former cabinet minister Praful Patel will lead the party's charge in Maharashtra. Besides, the NCP will be hoping that its prominent state leaders like Sule's cousin Ajit and former deputy CMs R R Patil and Chaggan Bhujbal will help the outfit do well in their respective strongholds.

(2) The NDA: After warming the Opposition benches for long, the saffronists are sensing victory. With political analysts believing that Maharashtra could one of the states that could see them do well, the BJP has tried its best to give itself a good chance from here. The entry of the RPI (A) and the SSS into the NDA fold will help the coalition woo Dalits and farmers. More importantly, it has put its house in order. Earlier reports suggesting fiction between the Gopinath Munde and Nitin Gadkari factions of the party in Maharashtra have all but disappeared. The BJP is expected to ride on the NaMo wave and counter the UPA on issues like corruption, inflation and economic slump.

The Shiv Sena (SS), which was written off about three years ago will be fighting to retain its political significance in the state. Though the party witnessed a split in its ranks after the dynamic Raj Thackeray walked away to form the MNS, a third straight victory in the Mumbai Municipal polls and the public out pour following the death of supremo Balasaheb indicated that the SS was still an important player in the state. The Lok Sabha and the later state elections of 2014 is a lithmus test for party president Uddhav Thackeray as well as the Shiv Sena with few of its leaders crossing over to the Congress or the NCP. If it can end up with over 12 seats, it would emerge as a force to reckon with even on the Central stage and Balasaheb's choice of his son Uddhav to lead his party after him will be justified. Like the NCP, the year 2014 will be extremely crucial in the political prospects of this party.

A third member of the 'Mahayuti' is Ramdas Athavale's Republican Party of India (A). The Dalit leader was with the UPA in 2009 and has represented Pandharpur and Mumbai North Central in the Lok Sabha earlier. The presence of the Dalit party like RPI (A) in the grand coalition is highly symbolic too as it helps the BJP to get more low caste votes. Raju Shetti's Swabhiman Shetkari Sanghatana (SSS) is popular amongst the farmers, especially in the Hatkanangle region. The entry of Mahadeo Jankar's Rashtriya Samaj Party (RSP) at the last moment will again help in consolidation of the anti-UPA votes.

(3) Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS): The only thing that prevent the NDA from doing well in Maharashtra is Raj Thackeray. Whether you like him or not, the MNS chief is a force to reckon with. His call for his supporters to attack officials if they ask for toll led to violence at many places recently. Many see him as the 'true successor' to his uncle Balasaheb and the kind of emotional connect he has with the traditional Sena base is indeed enviable. With Nitin Gadkari opening back channel links with him, there were reports indicating that he might join the 'Mahayuti'. However, nothing is clear in this regards. At the same time, several smaller parties like Jayant Patil's Peasants and Worker's Party and Vinay Kore's Jan Surajya Party are keen to ally with Raj to form a Third Front.

(4) Aam Admi Party (AAP): While the party would have done extremely well in the state had anti-corruption crusader Anna Hazare lend its support to them, the AAP is still hopeful that it can replicate its success in Delhi in the financial capital of Mumbai, at least on a much smaller scale. The first list of probable candidates has some big names like banker Meera Sanyal (Mumbai - South), activist Mayank Gandhi (Mumbai - North) and Vijay Pandhare (Nashik) who helped expose the irrigation scam.

PAST PERFORMANCE

Looking back into the past, the NDA will be hoping to replicate its superlative performance of 1996 when the BJP and the Sena bagged 33 of the 48 seats in the state. However, they could not hold that for long. The unpopularity of the SS-BJP government under Manohar Joshi in Mumbai saw the allies losing ground to the Congress. With Sharad Pawar still with the INC, the tables were turned as the Congress took home 33 seats, reducing the saffron partners to 10. The following elections though, saw a different trend. After Pawar formed the NCP over the foreign origin issue of Sonia Gandhi, the BJP emerged as the largest party here with a tally of 15 while the 13 candidates of the Shiv Sena made the cut. The 2004 polls saw a close contest with the NDA holding a marginal upper hand here although it was the Congress-led alliance that emerged as the winner nationwide. The UPA dominated 2009 finsihing with 25 seats whereas the NDA took 20.

Political Party	1996	1998	1999	2004	2009
Congress (INC)	15	33	10	13	17
Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)	N/A	N/A	6	9	8
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	18	4	15	12	9
Shiv Sena (SS)	15	6	13	13	11
Others	-	5	4	1	3

MY PREDICTIONS

The Congress and the NCP have stuck to their 2009 formula for seat sharing with the INC contesting 26 and leaving 22 for Pawar's outfit. The seat sharing amongst the constituents of the grand alliance are not yet finalized. You can definitely expect some fiction here considering that there are 5 parties with each trying to maximize its numbers.Meanwhile, I predict the NDA to cross the 25 mark. The UPA will drop seats but will not be routed. The NCP's performance will be below average.

	Coalition	Expected Seats
1	United Progressive Alliance (INC-NCP)	15-20
2	National Democratic Alliance (BJP-SS-RPI(A)-SSS-RSP)	22-27
3	Others (MNS/AAP)	1-5

WATCH OUT

(1) The Revival of the Shiv Sena: This could be the big make or break moment for the Shiv Sena and its chief Uddhav Thackeray. If the party can even retain its tally of 11, it will be a significant achievement and will pay rich dividends especially in the state polls scheduled in late 2014. However the split in its traditional vote banks, may cost it some seats.

(2) Will he or won't he? Will Raj Thackeray's MNS nominate candidates for the big polls or will it concentrate on the state elections is one big question that could change the dimensions in the state. If he does, he could cause serious damage to the 'Mahayuti' in several constituencies. Also, another interesting thing to see will be how Raj can take his party from Mumbai-Thane region to other parts of Maharashtra and what role will he play in the state politics in the near future.

(3) The NCP in transition: With Pawar ruling himself out of the Lok Sabha 2014, an era in the party's history has come to an end. It is but evident that the young Turks will have to take over. Will the transition be smooth? I don't think so. Pawar's daughter Supriya Sule and nephew Ajit Pawar are the front runners to take over. In a comprise, you can expect Supriya to lead the party in the Parliament with Praful Patel by her side whereas Ajit might command the state unit. At this juncture, one needs to watch the moves of senior leaders Chaggan Bhujbal and R R Patil closely.

(4) The fight for Mumbai: In 2009, the UPA won all seven seats in the Mumbai-Thane region. In many seats the NDA was relegated to the third spot after the split in the opposition votes. Can the NDA wrest the financial capital back from the Congress-led front. While this is likely, the MNS can dampen the prospects of the NDA.

(5) Statehood for Vidarbha: With the Congress and BJP colluding to give statehood to Telangana, such demands from other parts of the country are likely. The demands for a separate state carved out of eastern Maharashtra has been raised since long. Both the Congress and the BJP have reiterated their support for the cause. However, the Shiv Sena has opposed the division tooth and nail.

For more posts in this series:
(1) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

THE RACE FOR ALLIES

THE FIVE ALLIANCES WHICH COULD DECIDE WHO WINS 2014

The last time that the people voted for a single party government was way back in 1984 when the Indian National Congress won an unprecedented 414 seats due to the sympathy wave owing to the assassination of the PM Indira Gandhi. In fact, in every Lok Sabha elections since 1989, no party has been able to cross the half way mark on its own. The coalition era, characterized by the decline of the Congress, the inability of the BJP to penetrate into the southern and eastern parts of the country and the rise of regional aspirations is here to stay. There is nothing to indicate that the 2014 polls will be any way different. As such, the Congress and the BJP are going all out to woo new allies in a bid to strengthen their position. The elevation of Modi may have hurt the saffron outfit's chances of winning over friends but the BJP has managed to get back estranged leaders like Kalyan Singh and B S Yeddyurappa back into the party fold. At the same time, other regional player like the TDP and the YSR Congress in Andhra as well as the MDMK and the PMK in Tamil Nadu have been sending out feelers to the primary opposition. If there is one thing that the Congress is doing better than the BJP, at least for the time being is finding newer coalition partners. The grand old party is said to be in talks with the DMK in Tamil Nadu, the TRS in Andhra, the JD(U), the RJD and the LJP in Bihar, the AIUDF in Assam and the big daddy of them all, the BSP in Uttar Pradesh. Here is a look at five alliances which in my opinion could prove to be decisive in the upcoming General polls in my opinion.

(5) BJP's rainbow alliance in Tamil Nadu: When the BJP decided to declare the Gujarat CM as their PM nominee (Link) there was a feeling that the party will end up alienating itself in the big elections. However, the

PMK's Ramdoss and MDMK's Vaiko

party itself decided to take the risk as it hoped that the image of Modi as a strong, non corrupt leader will help it win the votes of the masses, besides galvanizing the party cadre. The gamble seems to have worked and the response that the BJP leader got at the Trichy rally in the state made it a sought after ally amongst the smaller Dravidian parties. At the same time, the break up of the Congress-DMK alliance has made the matters worse for both of them. Many had speculated that the AIADMK under Jaya would be a natural ally of the BJP considering her strong personal equations with Modi. However, Amma ruled out all talks of pre-poll alliance with any party, aware that a tally of over 30 seats would make her indispensable for the formation of a stable regime at the centre. Although the AIADMK has decided to go solo, MDMK's Vaiko has joined hands with the BJP. His outfit has pockets of influence in western and southern parts of Tamil Nadu. At the same time, PMK's Ramadoss which has support base amongst the Vaniyyar community is also keen to forge a partnership with the saffron party. The BJP is also trying to rope in Vijaykanth's DMDK in their front (Link). The problem here is that Ramadoss and Vijaykanth who both have political interests in northern parts of the state may not get along well. I know many may think that the BJP front may not get too many seats. Actually it would be great even if it manages to win about 3-5 seats. However, the thing to note here is that, considering that the BJP has negligible presence here, winning every single seat would be like a bonus.

(4) The Congress-JMM tie up in Jharkhand: One of the earliest pre poll alliance before the Lok Sabha polls came in July 2013 when the INC joined hands with Shibu Soren's JMM to end the impasse in Ranchi which

Hemant and Shibu Soren

was placed under the President's Rule. Under this agreement, Hemant Soren was sworn in as the ninth Chief Minister of the tribal state with support from the Congress, RJD and some independents. At the same time, a deal for fighting the big polls was stuck under which the INC will fight 10 seats whereas the JMM would field candidates from four places. While the state may send just fourteen MPs to the Parliament, the coalition may have a large impact on the results. To realize the importance of this tie-up, one has to understand that the political sphere in the state is highly fragmented and even a small swing of votes can lead to dramatic shifts. A look at the 2010 legislative assembly will help us in this regards. In this elections, both the BJP and the JMM won the highest number of seats, which was 18. The Congress and Babulal Marandi's JVM(P) won 13 and 11 seats respectively. Having joined hands, the INC-JMM tie-up will help consolidation of their votes. The last time the two came together in 2004 they won thirteen seats. In fact, the lone BJP MP from here was Marandi who has long left the party. Jharkhand is one state in central India where the BJP has to do more considering that its proposal for an alliance with the JVM(P) has been turned down by Marandi. The agreement is a win-win situation for both the INC and the Sorens; for the ailing Shibu, it is an opportunity to pass on the baton to his son. Having got the lion's share of seats, the Congress has reduced much of its dependence over the JMM which history shows, is not a reliable ally.

(3) The UPA in Bihar: Now moving from Jharkhand to neighboring Bihar, the divorce between the BJP and the JD(U) has opened a plethora of possibilities. The Namo wave is growing stronger, the way the

RJD's Lalu and LJP's Paswan

Gujarat CM continued with his Patna rally in spite of the bomb blast has further added to his popularity. As such, it is but natural for the Congress to hunt for new allies in the state. With the UPA facing anti-incumbency and the party having a weak organization here in Patna, it seems to be its only chance. Ram Vilas Paswan of the LJP who drew a blank in the last Parliamentary polls has already expressed his desire to fight the polls in alliance with the INC. Now the big question is whether the third partner here will be Nitish's JD(U) or Lalu Yadav's RJD. Some time back, Rahul Gandhi had asked Nitish to dump the BJP and join the UPA for protecting the 'secular' traditions of the country. Considering Kumar's clean image and his development work, allying with him might be a good option. At the same time, the INC is aware that the CM's plummeting ratings and the anti-incumbency factor may force it to rethink. On the other hand, RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav who has come out of a small stint in jail in the multi-crore Fodder scam (Link) is aiming to use the upcoming polls as an opportunity to resurrect his political fortunes. The issue of allying with Lalu has its own set of problems. The corruption charges against the former CM may hurt the party's prospects here. The last time the three parties i.e. the INC, the RJD and the LJP came together in 2004, they swept the polls, winning 29 out of the 40 seats. However, at this juncture, like the BJP alliance in Tamil Nadu, every seat that the UPA wins here will make it more difficult for Modi to become the PM.

(2) The Ruling Alliances have the edge in Punjab and Kerala: Now I am sticking my neck out and saying that the ruling coalitions in the states of Punjab and Kerala may sweep the polls in their respective states. The Akali-BJP

The Badals

combine did the impossible in 2012 when it romped to power, the first time that an incumbent government had been voted back to power in decades in the northern state. In the last two years, the Badals have done nothing grossly wrong so as to indicate that they is any large scale dissatisfaction with them. The failure of the Manpreet Badal led PPP to make an impact and the high inflation rates will benefit the SAD. For the BJP, it has managed to placate Amritsar MP Navjot Singh Sidhu who was reportedly unhappy with the central leadership for being sidelined. In 2009, the INC grabbed 8 seats here, largely owing to the popularity of the PM Manmohan Singh. With Singh having announced his retirement, this elections may well see the ruling

The LDF

combine winning about 10 seats from here. On similar lines, the United Democratic Front (UDF) government in Kerala is expected to do exceeding well as per the CNN IBN-Lok Niti prediction. According to the survey, it may win anywhere between 12 to 18 seats, reducing the Left Front to single digits. Such a result may have a significant impact on the Third Front. The Communists have been the ones who have time and again called for a non-Congress, non-BJP government in Delhi. However, in 2014, they may find it extremely difficult to even win more than 20 seats. In Bengal, Mamata's TMC is believed to be sweeping the elections. At this time, the comrades only hope was to do well in their southern bastion. If they fail to win over 10 seats here, the Reds may have absolutely no significance whatsoever in the next Lok Sabha.

(1) The Maha Yuti in Maharashtra: The Congress along with its ally, Sharad Powar's NCP has been in power in Mumbai for three consecutive terms. Besides facing anti-incumbency both in the state as well as at

The Maha Yuti

the Centre, the allegations of corruption in the Adarsh society scam has tainted the image of the local regime. In fact, in the last five years, the Congress has changed three Chief Ministers here. At the same time, the NCP is having troubles of its own (Link). It is being reported that the traditional NCP vote bank, the Marathas of Western Maharashtra are exploring other options. At the same time, the Irrigation scam in which allegations were made against Ajith Powar has further dented its image. While the ruling combine is struggling, the Opposition in the state is united and stronger than ever before. Following the death of its supremo Balasaheb, the Shiv Sena under Uddhav is on the rise. The factionalism within the BJP which had split into two camps here, one led by Gopinath Munde and the other by Nitin Gadkari following the death of Pramod Mahajan is now a thing of the past. The Athavale led Republican Party of India will help the front gather Dalit votes. Now Raju Shetty led Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatan has also joined hands with them. The only consolation for the INC-NCP regime is that Raj Thackeray led MNS may led to the split in the traditional Marathi votes, especially in Mumbai. However, it is believed that the BJP is planning to mend this loophole. While bringing the two Senas together may not be possible, the saffron outfit may enter a strategic alliance with Raj under which they will nominate weak leaders in each other's bastion. The Maha Yuti as it is called may even win over 30 seats of the 48 in Maharashtra.

IMAGES 

(1) PMK's Ramdoss and MDMK's Vaiko
Original: The Hindu - PMK, MDMK not to contest bypoll (Link)

(2) Hemant and Shibu Soren
Original: Jharkhand State News - Hemant with his father Shibu Soren to fly to Delhi, efforts to form government on (Link)

(3) RJD's Lalu and LJP's Paswan
Original: Indian Express - Lalu-Paswan deal not acceptable, says Congress (Link)

(4) The Badals
Original: The Tribune - SAD takes recourse to Panthic agenda (Link)

(5) The UDF
Original: The UDF (Link)

(6) The Maha Yuti
Original: Maha Yuti seals seat-sharing pact (Link)