THE STATES THAT MATTER - PART VII

THE RESULTS - AN OVERVIEW

Ending months of high voltage political drama, accusations, counter-accusations and mud-slinging, the results of the much awaited legislative assembly elections held between January and March in five Indian states were announced on 6th March, 2012. Earlier, beating all expectations, the electorate had come out in large numbers to choose their representatives, re-affirming their faith in the Indian democracy. However, the result pattern, cutting across all states did throw in a number of surprises, even to the most seasoned political pundits who had covered myriad elections over the years. Apart from a high voter turnout, the state elections did witness many heavyweights disappear into the oblivion whereas several young netas emerged to shine like stars on the horizon of Indian politics. Though many tainted nominees did make the cut, the electorate did boot out a size able number of controversial candidates. The masses voted for development as traditional electoral issues like caste and religion took a back burner. With the two major national parties underperforming, the momentum grew in favor of a non-Congress, non-BJP coalition - The Third Front that has been doing the rounds for a considerable period of time.   

Akhilesh Yadav was sworn in as the youngest CM of Uttar Pradesh

For the second consecutive time in a row, the mega state of Uttar Pradesh elected a party with a simple majority, squashing all speculations of a hung assembly and unholy alliances between parties of conflicting ideologies (read Congress-SP or BJP-BSP), formed purely for political gains. The Samajwadi Party, fighting the polls under the leadership of Akhilesh Yadav swept the polls winning a whopping 225 out of the 403 seats, the highest in its history. Though its true that there was a wave of discontent against the Mayawati government, the young leader is credited to be the 'real architect' of the SP's splendid performance as he garnered the anti-BSP votes into his party's kitty in spite of a 'strong' campaign by the two national parties - the Congress and the BJP who were seeing the polls as an opportunity to re-invent themselves in the state. 

While the myriad corruption scandals and lack of development under the Maya regime had significantly dented her prospects of a second consecutive term, the junior Yadav's spirited attempt to connect with the masses on the ground and a host of conscious decisions taken by him to improve his party's image seem to have gone well with the electorate. Besides vetoing against D P Yadav's entry into his outfit, Akhilesh made it clear during his popular cycle rallies that his party, if elected to power would curb goonda raj - a 'hallmark' of the Samajawadi politics during its previous terms. Realizing that their anti-technology or anti-English rhetoric may not impress the urban voter, the foreign educated Akhilesh promised free tablets and laptops for all students who pass class X and class XII exams respectively. In a move that has won him thousands of admirers, Akhilesh in an interview to the media after the resounding triumph, said that he would not raze Maya's statues, a stark contradiction to the his father's comments in this regard some weeks earlier, signaling perhaps, a new sense of maturity in the murky 'rajneeti' of UP and bringing an end to the politics of vendetta.

On the other hand, Mayawati paid the ultimate price for remaining aloof of the sufferings of the people on the ground with the BSP being reduced to just 80 seats. The host of corruption scandals and her affluent ways like wasting of public money on the constructions of her statues didn't seem to go unnoticed with the electorate, determined to teach the 'Dalit ki Beti' a lesson which she would not forget so soon. Though Maya did try to get an image makeover by dropping several of her ministers and sitting MLAs and resorted to 'Social Engineering' to exploit the caste factor to her advantage, her unimpressive report card over the last five years meant that the public didn't fall for her cheap tricks this time around.

For the national parties the wait to regain lost ground in India's most populous state seems to be extended by another five years. Though the early leads indicated that the BJP could dislodge the BSP to emerge as the second largest party in the assembly, the performance of the saffron outfit plateaued and and then declined to 47 seats, four less than the last polls. The BJP high command's decision to rope in its Hindutva icon and OBC face Uma Bharati failed miserably as the party failed to capitalize on the failures of both the state and central governments. While the Congress's performance was better when compared to 2007, the hype generated around Rahul Gandhi by the media in general and the Congress leaders in particular failed to translate into votes. Thus what was supposed to be the most important day in Baba's short and unimpressive political career so far proved to be a major embarrassment for the party already troubled by allegations of corruption at the Centre. Ironically while the party had finished second in terms of seats in the 2009 General elections in the state, it did badly even in the traditional Nehru-Gandhi bastions of Amethi and Rae Bareily.

Parkash and Sukhbir Badal retained Punjab

While Mulayam and Akhilesh took the Samajwadi Party home in Uttar Pradesh, another father-son duo, that of Parkash and Sukhbir Singh Badal created history in the state of Punjab by being the first government to retain power in nearly four decades. Though there were several cases of corruption against the Badals during their previous schemes, the last government took concrete steps towards development including the popular Atta-Dal scheme which provides flour and pulses at subsidized rates to the poor, thus seeing off the threat posed by the opposition Congress and the PPP. Besides the relatively good performance by the previous SAD-BJP regime, the dynamic image of the Akali crown prince and Deputy CM Sukhbir combined with the skills and experience of CM Parkash Singh Badal won the SAD a total of 56 seats, falling just 3 short of a simple majority on its own. After being reduced to just 4 seats in the last Lok Sabha polls, the Akalis seem to have learnt from their mistakes and did their homework well prior to the assembly polls, which was reflected in their excellent figures.

The SAD's alliance partner, the BJP whose image took a beating following raids on several of their state ministers by the CBI and friction amongst its leaders slipped from 19 to just 12 seats. While it is true that the it was a herculean tasks for the party to even come close to its out of the skins performance last time around, considering its sorry state of affairs at all levels, the party needs to take corrective measures soon to remain afloat in the state especially at a time when the Akalis are trying hard to woo the minority Hindu community - a traditional BJP vote bank. 

The Congress party's fortunes in the state were dashed primarily due to faulty distribution of tickets and the large number of rebels that were in fray across the state. Hoping to end infighting amongst the state leaders, Rahul Gandhi, during his election campaign had made it clear that former CM Amarinder Singh would be the party's nominee for the top post in case it manages to come to power in 2012. The Congress's hopes also depended largely on the Manpreet Singh Badal led PPP splitting the traditional Akali vote on the lines of the MNS in Maharashtra. However, with the PPP drawing a blank on its debut and the Congress failing to capitalize on the shortfalls of the Badal regime, it was a rather easy victory for the octogenarian leader. 

BJP's Khanduri lost to S S Negi of Congress

The state of Uttarakhand witnessed a close contest as both the BJP and the Congress failed to get a clear majority. The saffron outfit, fighting a strong wave of anti-incumbency and a long list of scams under the erstwhile CM Ramesh Pokhriyal tried hard to woo the voters by replacing the former by B C Khanduri. The new CM, who had been axed following the party's disastrous performance in 2009, enhanced the BJP's poll prospects by passing several key legislation including Anna Hazare's Jan Lokpal Bill. Surprisingly, while the 'Khanduri hain Zarori' campaign of the saffron outfit may have prevented a complete rout, the former CM lost the Kotdwar assembly seat to S S Negi of the Congress adding salt to the injury of the BJP.

Although the Congress managed to increase its tally from 21 to 32 assembly seats, the party needs to contemplate as to what went wrong in the manner in which it fought the Uttarakhand polls. In what should have been a cake walk for the party, the Congress nearly lost out to the BJP owing to the differences between its many chief ministerial aspirants and the rebels contesting as independent candidates. A simple math shows that it could have easily won atleast 5 to 10 seats more if the rebels had been placated before the state went to polls.

The key to the government formation in the hill state now depends on the 7 MLAs who have made the cut while contesting on a non-BJP and non-Congress ticket. The BSP has lost 5 seats but has still managed to finish at a tally of three. The Panwar faction of the UKKD has won a single seat whereas three independents, all former Congressmen have won from their constituencies. With the victorious rebels showing inclinations of supporting their former party and the UKKD(P) making it clear that they would not support the BJP, the stage is set for the Congress to come back to power after five years in Uttarakhand.

Okram Ibobi Singh won a straight third term

After the flop show in UP, the ignominious defeat in Punjab and a mess in Uttarakhand, the only consolation for the Congress came from the North-Eastern state of Manipur where it single handedly won  70% of the seats, a rise of 12 seats as compared to the previous polls. In fact, there were several hurdles that CM Okram Ibobi Singh had to overcome to get a continuous third term in Imphal. A conglomerate of seven underground groups had warned the people against voting for the party. Besides, many parties including MPP, NCP, rivals - JD(U) and RJD and Left Front had joined hands to bring down the Ibobi government. However, in the end, not only did the Congress improve its tally, the united Opposition was decimated and it managed to win only a single seat. 

The Manipur State Congress Party (MSCP) which was reduced to 0 seats in 2007 grabbed 5 seats whereas the Naga People's Front (NPF) did well in the Naga dominated regions to finish with 4 seats.  Mamata Bannerjee's impressive campaigning in Manipur seems to have paid off as the Trinamool, which like the NPF is a new entrant in the state politics won 7 seats on debut and will be the principal Opposition in the new assembly.

While it was Manipur for the Congress, Goa saved the blushes for the BJP which was voted out of power in Uttarakhand and whose performance both in UP and Punjab was below par to say the least. Under former CM Manohar Parrikar, the saffron outfit bagged 21 seats and winning a simple majority on its own for the first time in the coastal state. Its coalition partner the MGP won three seats, thereby managing to retain its political symbol. With two independents supported by the BJP also making the cut, the strength of the new government is set to be 26 in a house of 40 members.

Parrikar led BJP to a spectacular victory

The Congress which was in power since 2005 was dealt a severe blow with several of its key leaders losing to new faces fielded by the BJP-MGP combine. The inability of the government to deal effectively against illegal mining and the distribution of tickets to several members of the same family were the prime reasons that led to the downfall of the Congress. Meanwhile, its coalition partner the NCP failed even to open its account. The Goa Vikas Party (GVP), fighting the elections in agreement with the UGDP bagged 2 seats whereas independents won in five constituencies.

The elections results have thrown in a mixed bag and two years prior to the next General elections, it is not much clear as to which national alliance - the ruling UPA or the NDA has the edge. Neither the Congress nor the BJP seem to have anything much to cheer about from the assembly election results. Sensing this as a proper opportunity, the advocates of the Third Front are trying hard to woo the constituents of the big coalitions in a bid to strengthen their numbers. With political re-alignments expected in the aftermath of the results, it looks like the political battle for the 2014 elections may just have begun.

IMAGES

(1) Akhilesh Yadav was sworn in as the youngest CM of Uttar Pradesh (Link) 

Source: India Today - Election Results - Akhilesh pedals Samajwadi Party to victory in Uttar Pradesh

(2) Parkash and Sukhbir Singh Badal retained Punjab (Link) 

Source: Samay Live - Badal to be sworn in as Punjab CM on March 14th

(3) BJP's Khanduri lost to S S Negi of Congress (Link) 

Source: Hillpost - Khanduri improves party position but fails to win

(4) Ikram Obibi Singh won a straight third term (Link) 

Source: Today News - Assembly polls - Big Winners and Big Losers

(5) Parrikar led the BJP to a spectacular victory Parrikar (Link) 

Source: HeraldGoa - I will not become CM if forced to take support of undesirable elements  

THE STATES THAT MATTER - PART III

BATTLEGROUND PUNJAB

THE CONTENDERS AND THE ISSUES

Referred to as ‘Sapt-Sindhu’ in the ancient Vedic literature, Punjab – the land of Sikhs has played a prominent role in the transformation of India from an agrarian community to an economic powerhouse. It was here that Guru Nanak Dev preached the principles of love and peace and laid the foundation of Sikhism in an era marked by violence and political instability. Great sons of Mother India like Maharaja Ranjit Singh, Shaheed Bhagat Singh etc who so valiantly fought for freedom hail from this state. Known for their bravery, courage, fun-loving ways and bindass attitude, the Punjabi people are an integral part of the Indian armed forces and entertainment industry.

However, today the state of Punjab is witnessing a slow decline in its fortunes. Known as ‘the wheat bowl of India’, the state, along with neighboring Haryana has been a leading contributor towards meeting the country’s food requirements. Over the years, the issues related to farmers have remained unresolved and many of them are in debt, taken primarily from private money lenders. While agricultural woes continue to grow, the IT sector is yet to make it large in the border state. Rampant corruption, lack of infrastructure development and bad governance under successive regimes has taken people’s faith off the political class. As such the 30^th January polls are crucial as the people’s mandate will decide who will rule the Punjab Vidhan Sabha for the next 5 years.

Punjab CM Prakash Singh Badal (left) with son and Deputy CM  Sukhbir 

The incumbent Chief Minister Prakash Singh Badal will be seeking a fourth term in the upcoming polls. At 85, the senior Badal has made it clear that it, if elected, it will be his last term in office and that he will pave way for the younger generation of Akalis (i.e. his son Sukhbir Badal) to takeover. A veteran in state politics, Badal has groomed his son, Sukhbir, a three time MP and Deputy CM of the state to lead the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and take the family legacy forward. Sukhbir’s wife, Harsimrat Kaur has emerged as a key strategist for the party and beat high profile Congress candidate Raninder Singh to win the Bhatinda Lok Sabha seat in 2009.

Forget the CM’s chair, it will be very difficult for the sitting CM to retain even his assembly seat of Lambi as he is facing stiff competition from two of his kin. While his own estranged younger brother, Gurudas Badal will contest on a PPP ticket, the Congress has fielded Mahesh Inder Singh Badal from this seat. SAD president Sukhbir Badal will contest from Jalabad while former civil servants former DGP, P S Gill and ex-principal secretary to CM, D S Guru are fighting on Akali ticket from Moga and Bhadur respectively.

Considering the fact that the state has a history of voting out incumbent governments, the Badals are trying hard to convince the voters to get the SAD-BJP alliance in power for a second consecutive term. In fact, the ruling combine had faced a disastrous defeat in the state during the 2009 Lok Sabha polls where they were reduced to a mere 5 seats whereas the opposition Congress got as many as 9 seats.        

       

With the whole country rising for the Lokpal bill, the slew of corruption charges against the father-son duo may severely hamper the prospects of the Akalis in the upcoming polls. Although the Badals have been acquitted in cases of cheating and possession of disproportionate assets framed during the previous Congress regime, the manner in which the much hyped case was quietly buried after the Akalis got back in power, leaves several questions unanswered. As many as 130 odd witnesses including the Investigating Officer Surinder Pal Singh turned hostile and opposition has accused the Badals of using a lethal mix of money and muscle power to win the case. Besides, Surinder Singh has been given extension in service thrice, post retirement.

Punjab Congress Chief Captain Amarinder Singh

The Congress party will be led by former Chief Minister and Maharaja of the erstwhile state of Patiala, Captain Amarinder Singh. A former army man who took part in the operations during the 1965 war, he is seen to be a close confidant of the Congress president. In fact, at an election rally during his Punjab tour, Rahul Gandhi publicly acknowledged that Amarinder was his party’s CM candidate, putting to rest all speculations that his wife and MP Preneet Kaur may get the coveted post in case the Congress comes to power.

Continuing its ‘rich heritage’ of encouraging political lineage, the Congress has given tickets to kins of several prominent leaders of past and present. Former CM and Amarinder’s party rival, Rajinder Kaur Bhattal, who is standing from Lehragaga, has also secured a seat for her son-in-law Vikram Bajwa. Gurkirat Singh Kotli, grandson of former CM Beant Singh and former CM Harcharan Singh Brar’s daughter-in-law Karan Brar have been given tickets. However, Amarinder’s son Yuvraj Raninder Singh who is contesting from the Samana assembly seat is involved in a close fight with his uncle Malvinder Singh who left the Congress to join the SAD after being denied a ticket in favor of his nephew.

Apart from corruption, the major electoral issue for the Congress is what it calls the failure of the Badal government to successfully implement the national schemes in the state. UPA chairperson, Sonia Gandhi has accused the Badal government of using only 10 per cent of the Rs 5,000 crore that the Central government had sanctioned under the NREGA scheme for Punjab.  Like madamji, even PM Manmohan Singh blamed the ruling combine of not doing enough for the people in the sectors of health care and education. He also reminded the people the work that his government had done for the development of the state including setting up an IIT in Ropar, an Indian Institute of Science Education and Research at Mohali and the up gradation of Amritsar international airport and medical college.

A setback for the Congress may be the fact that Maharaja is known to be largely inaccessible to the general public. Also in his first tenure, Singh constantly faced rebellion from former CM Rajinder Kaur who was placated after she was made the deputy CM. The Badals, although seen as autocratic, on the other hand, are known to mingle with party workers and ordinary people. Sukhbir’s go-getter attitude seems to have been a hit with the Punjabi youth. The new kid on the block, Manpreet talks about a debt and corruption free Punjab and promises to find solution to the problems of farmers.

The greatest worry for the Congress will be losing votes to the significant number of rebels who are in the fray either as independents or have switched sides after being denied tickets. Although over a dozen Congressmen have been expelled for anti-party activities, the party will compete against its own former members in 38 out of the total 117 seats. 

PPP President Manpreet Singh Badal 

Well, for the Akalis, they have a problem of their own. Atleast 13 rebels are contesting the polls and former party leader, Manjit Singh Calcutta has thrown his weight behind the Congress. Former state finance minister and the CM’s nephew, Manpreet Badal launched his own political outfit, the People’s Party of Punjab (PPP) after a series of differences with his cousin, Sukhbir over issues relating to governance. Like Raj Thackery in Maharashtra, the ‘other Badal’ seems to have been disillusioned within the SAD after his cousin was given preferential treatment although both of them were leaders of equal capability. 

Aiming to become the third alternative to the people tired of misrule under both the SAD and the Congress, Manpreet has created an umbrella alliance – ‘Sanjha Morcha’ that comprises of PPP, CPI (M), CPI and SAD (Longowal). At the onset, prominent Akali leaders like Jagbir Singh Brar and Kushaldeep Singh Dhillon joined the PPP and the party was reportedly gaining momentum across the state. However, with a series of leaders including Brar and Dhillon defecting to the Congress, Manpreet may find it extremely difficult to get even a handful of seats. But, one thing is for sure, this flamboyant leader who is contesting from Gidderbaha and Maur, with a clean image may spoil the fortunes of several SAD candidates including his uncle.

With opinion polls suggesting that both the Congress and SAD may end up with about 40 odd seats, the performance of the BJP, an ally in the ruling combine may decide who forms the next government in Punjab. In the last elections, the saffron party did particularly well in the urban areas, winning 19 out of the 23 seats it contested. But the corruption charges against MLA Raj Khurana and the subsequent raid on his premises that have set to yielded a Porsche, Rs 15 lakh in cash and a cheque worth Rs 1 crore and serious charges of embezzlement levied against  former Forest Minister Tikshan Sud, have become a major embarrassment for the ruling combine. Though all 5 cabinet ministers from the BJP resigned after the raid, at the behest of the president Nitin Gadkari amidst the Anna Hazare movement, the BJP has given tickets to both the tainted babus. Meanwhile, former cricketer Navjot Singh Sidhu’s wife Navjot Kaur will contest from Amritsar East constituency and state BJP Chief Ashwani Kumar Sharma has been fielded from Pathankot.

BJP MLA Raj Khurana

There have been reports of friction between the SAD and the BJP, especially over the issue of development in urban areas. The BJP alleged that the Badal government diverted Rs 735 crore meant for the development of municipalities, from which it derives most of its strength. As the war of words escalated, senior leaders Rajnath Singh and Yashwant Sinha had to intervene to prevent a split. Apart from this, infighting amongst state leaders, mostly notably between Luxmi Kant Chawla and Jagdish Sahni has added to the party’s misery. Chawla, who has a reputation of being an upright leader, has stated that she would no longer contest any elections and continue doing social work. Also, the Akali Dal has fielded 11 Hindu candidates on its own and the move is being looked upon as an attempt to garner Hindu votes and reduce its dependence on its ally.

A peculiar feature of the 2012 polls has been the rise in Dalit assertion, especially in the fertile Daoba region of the state. Fuelled with money sent by kin who work abroad, the Dalits, instilled with pride, are witnessing a change in fortunes and are on the path towards progress. The attack on the leaders of Dera Sachkhand in Vienna, allegedly by a group of extremist Jat Sikhs has been a key factor in the Dalit awakening in the fields of culture and politics. The Dera has thousands of followers in the Daoba region, most of who belong to the lower classes. And looking to make the most of the situation  is India’s foremost low caste leader, Mayawati. Behenji has asked the people of the state to fulfill her mentor, Kanshi Ram’s dream of a BSP government in Punjab come true in the forth coming elections. At a time, when she is defending her crown in her own state, the very fact that she addressed four rallies across Punjab is ample proof that Mayawati is trying to ride on the Dalit wave in Punjab to expand her influence beyond UP.

Amongst the myriad Deras that have cropped up across Punjab, the Sirsa-based Dera Sacha Sauda, with an estimated 30 lakh followers in the state is perhaps the most influential. Its spiritual leader Ram Rahim Singh was in an eye of storm after adds depicting him in the attire of 10^th Sikh guru Gobind Singh were published in May 2007. Although the Dera tendered multiple apologies, several Sikh organizations including the SAD had accused the guru of hurting religious sentiments and attacks were made on the baba and his followers. The Dera responded by declaring open support to the Congress in the 2007 polls and though the party lost, it made major gains in the Akali stronghold of Malwa, where a majority of Dera followers hail from. Reports of a truce between the seer and SAD are doing the rounds after the Dera refused to back any party this time around and has promised to support only those candidates who had a clean image and opposed social evils like female infanticide and drug abuse. At least 100 candidates are said to have visited Sirsa for a private audience with Ram Rahim Singh for seeking the blessing of the guru to help them win the assembly polls.

Dera Sacha Sauda Chief Baba Ram Rahim Singh

Although, politicians are using every opportunity to lure voters and score brownie points over political opponents, the actual issues that face the voters on the ground do not find resonance in political speeches. Unemployment has risen sharply and jobless youth are taking to drugs. The once prosperous state is today in a debt exceeding Rs 1.2 lakh crore and power cuts have become common. Though there is no doubt that ‘Green Revolution’ in Punjab has been a tremendous success, unplanned agricultural practices have led to a series of problems like soil erosion, reduction in soil fertility, lowering of water table, increase in number of cancer cases due to indiscriminate use of pesticides, etc. It is rather sad that farmers of a land that feeds the entire nation are living have been failed by the state politicians.

Opinion polls have suggested a close fight and a vote swing of 2 or 3 per cent may well become the deciding factor. The fate of nearly 1100 candidates and more importantly, that of 2.7 crore Punjabis is on the line. Can the Akali-BJP alliance create history and retain power for a consecutive term? Will Amarinder Singh lead to Congress back to power in Punjab? And how much impact will Manpreet Badal have in the assembly polls? We will have to wait till 6^th March to see who does the Bahngra - Punjab's state dance.

SOURCES

(1) DNA - 137 witnesses turn hostilein Parkash Singh Badal

http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_137-witnesses-turn-hostile-in-parkash-singh-badal-corruption-case_1369907

(2) India Today - Tainted babu claims Sukhbir Singh Badal framed him in graft case

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/punjab-ias-officer-sukhbir-singh-badal-framed-corruption-case/1/169149.html

(3) In.com - Candidates in Punjab assembly polls

http://connect.in.com/parkash-singh-badal/article-prominent-candidates-in-punjab-assembly-polls-1387-3e3c86f6475f9c83fdd964ab773f5e33e9c7fbaa.html

(4) Day and Night News - Punjab polls 2012: Manmohan Singh addresses rally in Amritsar

http://www.dayandnightnews.com/2012/01/punjab-poll-2012-manmohan-singh-addresses-rally-in-amritsar/

(5) India Today - Nepotism guides Congress in Punjab polls ticket distribution

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/nepotism-guides-congress-in-punjab-polls-ticket-distribution/1/167399.html

(6) India Today - Punjab BJP plagued by corruption charges

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/punjab-bjp-plagued-by-charges-of-corruption/1/138275.html

(7) Times of India - Punjab polls: The tainted quotient in Punjab BJP list

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Punjab-polls-The-taint-quotient-in-BJP-Punjab-list/articleshow/11370191.cms?prtpage=1

(8) Economic Times - Assembly Elections 2012: Three scares for Congress in Punjab

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-02-01/news/31012827_1_dalit-votes-rebel-candidates-manpreet-badal

(9) Times of India - Punjab Polls: Dalit self-pride holds key in fertile Daob

http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2012-01-26/india/30666424_1_dalit-chamar-doaba

IMAGES

(1) Punjab CM Praksh Singh Badal (left) with Deputy CM Sukhbir
India Today: The Triumphant trio - http://www.indiataday.in

(2) Punjab Congress Chief Captain Amarinder Singh
Amarinder Singh: Official Site - http://www.myamarindersingh.in

(3) PPP President Manpreet Singh Badal
Indian Express: Manpreet begins Jago Punjab Yatra - http://www.indianexpress.com

(4) BJP MLA Raj Khurana
Day and Night News: Raj Khurana resigns as Punjab CPS - http://www.dayandnightnews.com

(5) Dera Sacha Sauda Chief Baba Ram Rahim Singh
IBN Live: CBI ready to nail Dera chief in murder, rape - http://www.ibnlive.com

THE STATES THAT MATTER - PART I

AN OVERVIEW

The stage is set, the contenders are ready and the stakes are high. As seven states go to the polls in this year, political parties will leave no stone upturned in a bid to form and retain governments in the Vidhan Sabha. Once the votes are cast and the results (The States That Matter - Part VII) start coming in, one state after another, there will be political upheavals both at the state level and the Centre. Long time allies will part ways and new alliances will be forged. Political heavyweights will put everything on line; while some will emerge successful, others will sink into the oblivion and new leaders will emerge to replace the older brigade. A total of 941 assembly seats are up for grabs which translates into 132 Lok Sabha seats and more importantly, 57 seats in the Rajya Sabha, whose importance has suddenly risen, thanks to the Central government’s inability to pass the Lokpal bill in the Upper House of the Parliament as it failed to get the required numbers.

In fact, the 2012 assembly polls will be, in several ways, a litmus paper test for the Manmohan Singh government, half way in its second consecutive term. The states that are scheduled to vote this year are spread out across the country, except for the south. Though the local issues dominate assembly polls, the rampant corruption in the Union government, magnified by Anna Hazare’s movement may impact the minds of the voters as they fulfill their fundamental duty to vote. A good show by the Congress and its allies will be a big boost for the UPA, struggling to get a makeover whereas an electoral setback may give more ammunition to the Opposition as it tries to tighten its noose around the Singh government. With Mamata Bannerji sending overtures to the JD (U), the prospects of the revival of a much stronger Third Front look brighter than ever in case the regional parties fare better than the national parties.

UP CM Mayawati with S C Mishra (Courtesy: IBN Live)

Although the Indian Constitution gives equal status to all the states and union territories, few will argue that Uttar Pradesh – India’s most populous and second largest state is the big daddy and the complexities involved in conducting polls in this province are next only to the general elections. Considering its sheer size, the fragile law and order situation and the infrastructure needed to conduct elections in a free and fare manner, the Election Commission of India (ECI) has decided that voting for the Vidhan Sabha will be split into seven phases, starting 8^th February to 3^rd March and the results will be declared on 6^th March, 2012.

The incumbent CM Kumari Mayawati having completed her full term, is keen to replicate her spectacular success in the 2007 where her party won a simple majority thanks to her unique strategy – Social Engineering that won her votes from all segments of the society. However, with new cases of corruption cropping up against her and her cabinet ministers day after day, Behenji may find it difficult to convince the electorate to give her a second chance in spite of sacking several of her tainted ministers and denying tickets to a large number of her sitting MLAs. Projecting the ECI’s decision to cover her statutes as an opposition’s conspiracy to belittle the Dalit community, Mayawati has gone back to caste based politics to retain the CM’s chair. By demanding that the mega state be split into four smaller units, she is aiming to put her many rivals into a tight spot. The principal opposition, the Samajwadi Party (SP) has undertaken a ‘Kranti Rath Yatra’ to reach out to the people and highlight the shortcomings of the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) government. The father-son duo of Mulayam Singh and Akhilesh Yadav are expecting their traditional Yadav-Muslim vote bank to back the party as it hopes to emerge as the single largest party in the state. (The States That Matter - Part II)

Buoyed by its superb performance in the Lok Sabha elections in the state of UP, the Congress under the leadership of Rahul baba has never missed out any opportunity to hit out at the BSP government and was at the forefront of the Bhatta-Parsaul agitation against forcible land acquisition. Realizing the fact that the polarization of Muslim votes in its favour was a chief reason for their political success in UP in 2009, the party has gone all out to appease the community with soaps like reservation for Muslim OBCs under the 27 per cent OBC quota and has roped in its minority face, Digvijay Singh to campaign in UP. Union Aviation Minister Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), which is a pre-poll alliance of the Congress, is hoping to maintain its stronghold in western UP. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in absence of any pan-UP mass leader, is banking on its OBC face, Uma Bharati to eat into the BSP’s vote bank and is trying hard to woo back the upper caste votes that had deserted the saffron outfit in the last few elections. 

Punjab CM Prakash Singh Badal (Courtesy: Free Visuals 4 U)

Like in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab CM Parkash Singh Badal and son and deputy CM, Sukhbir Singh Badal will be battling charges of corruption and anti-incumbency as Punjab goes to polls on 30^th January. The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) – BJP coalition government has been accused of shoddy implementation of central schemes and lack of infrastructure development in the state during its 5 year tenure by the opposition. However, the biggest headache for the Badal government will be losing votes to the Manpreet Singh Badal’s People’s Party of Punjab (PPP). The nephew of the Punjab CM and former finance minister parted ways after a series of differences over governing issues with cousin Sukhbir in November 2010. The ‘Sanjha Morch’ consisting of the PPP, CPI (M), CPI and SAD (Longowal) is gaining momentum and may end up spoiling the prospects of several prominent candidates. It will be interesting to see if the PPP can emerge as a successful alternative for the Punjabi people or will fizzle out like Cheeranjivi’s erstwhile Praja Rajyam did in Andhra after all the initial hype. (The States That Matter - Part III)

Interesting all is not well within the Congress camp too. Captain Amarinder Singh, the head of the party’s Punjab unit is seen as arrogant. Several candidates who were denied tickets have will either entered the contest as independents or have switched over to the SAD including Amarinder’s brother, Malwinder Singh. Besides, Mayawati is hoping to ride on the wave of Dalit assertion in the Daoba region, asking people to make her mentor, Kanshi Ram’s dream of a BSP government in his home state of Punjab come true and open her account in the state.

Uttarakhand CM Khanduri with ex CM Pokhriyal (Courtesy: India Today)

In the third assembly elections since its creation, Uttarakhand will see a straight fight between the ruling BJP and the Congress. Following the 2009 Lok Sabha elections that witnessed a 5-0 whitewash for the saffron party, the BJP high command replaced the sitting CM B C Khanduri with Ramesh Pokhriyal Nishank. However, the move backfired and with a slew of corruption charges against Nishank, he came to be seen as the ‘Yeddyurappa of the North’ and soon became an embarrassment for the party. Although Khanduri, who replaced Pokhriyal has managed to salvage back some pride for the BJP by passing Anna Hazare’s version of Lokpal bill, reports of in fighting between the two leaders may harm the prospects of the party. Besides, former CM Bhagat Singh Koshiyari still nurtures the dream of returning as the state’s CM. (The States That Matter - Part IV)

The Congress is raising the issue of regular power cuts and lack of regular water supply in the state as it tries to replicate it superb performance in the state in the last general elections. Led by Harak Singh Rawat, the Congress is hopeful that delimitation exercise will benefit it in the upcoming polls. Although at the forefront of the movement for statehood, Uttarakhand Kranti Dal (UKD) has failed in its objective to emerge as the state’s premiere political party. A coalition partner in the present government, the UKD will be hoping to get as many seats as it can so that it can emerge as a king maker in case both the national parties make to get a clear majority like in the last assembly elections. Like in Punjab, the BSP is hoping to make inroads in Uttarakhand in the 30^th January elections.

Manipur CM Okram Ibobi Singh (Courtesy: IBN Live)

As the volatile state of Manipur goes to polls on 30^th January, the emotive issues will determine who forms the next government in Imphal. Congress CM Okram Ibobi Singh will be trying his best to seek a consecutive third term in office. The principal opponent this time around will be a pre-poll alliance between the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), JD-U (Janata Dal – United), RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal), CPI (M) and Manipur People’s Party (MPP). Like several other North-eastern states, insurgency has crippled the economy of Manipur leading to widespread unemployment and discontent amongst the local population. The Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA), dubbed by Manipuris as ‘Draconian’ has given sweeping powers to the army and alleged atrocities by the men in uniform, including fake encounters and sexual molestation has further alienated the people from the Indian mainstream. 

The ethnic strife between the Nagas, demanding a greater Nagaland – ‘Nagalim’, comprising of areas dominated by the Naga people and the Kurkis demanding for a separate district in the Sadar hills region is another major political issue. The blockade by the Kurkis and the parallel blockade imposed by the Nagas on the state’s two national highways that lasted for over 100 days led to a severe shortage of essential commodities, with prices of food items and fuel skyrocketing. Hoping to en cash on the situation, Nagaland People’s Front (NPF) has decided to contest the Manipur polls and may do well in the Naga dominated Senapati district.

Goa CM Digambar Kamat (Courtesy: Top News)

Also going to polls in the first half of 2012 is the tiny state of Goa. The Congress which is in power since February 2005, is facing the heat as several of its prominent leaders are facing charges in the illegal mining scam. The report has indicted present CM Digambar Kamat and former CM and Speaker Pratapsinh Rane for colluding with the mining mafia and not taking action against them. The illegal land grabbing by the Russian mafia and non-Goans along with the ‘Bhasha Andolan’, a movement for making regional languages as the medium of instruction at the primary level are the major issues for the opposition, the BJP as it tries to whip regional sentiments for its benefit. (The States That Matter - Part VI)

The BJP under the leadership of Manohar Parriker is hoping to capitalize on the Congress government’s failure in the last 7 years to come back to power. The Maharashtrwadi Gomantak Party (MGP), which ruled the state till the late 80s will be fighting for its very survival as it has to win at least 3 seats to retain its poll symbol. Although the MGP is keeping its options open and is yet to decide on its alliance with the BJP, the Goa unit of the NCP has finalized to chalk out a seat sharing pact with the Congress. Meanwhile, former state cabinet minister, Mickey Pachecho of the Goa Vikas Party (GVP) has forged an alliance with the United Goans Democratic Party (UGDP) and is aiming to muster as many seats as possible so that he can emerge as a king maker in case of a hung assembly like in the past.

6^th March – the day on which the election results will be declared, will certainly be one of the most important days in the year’s political calendar. From religious ceremonies to freebies to promises, politicians are using all tricks to gain power. But like always it’s the people’s mandate and the masses will decide who will get win and who will bite the dust. We may not be able to predict who will win first round of the battle of states, the whole exercise will, for sure, strength the ethos of Indian democracy.

SOURCES

(1) Wikipedia - Legislative Assembly Elections India, 2012 (Link)

(2) NDTV - Issues that matter (Link)

IMAGES

(1)  UP CM Mayawati with S C Mishra (Courtesy: IBN Live) (Link)

Source: IBN Live - Mayawati slams Congress on quota, scams

(2) Punjab CM Parkash Singh Badal (Courtesy: Free Visuals 4 U) (Link)

Source: Free Visuals 4 U - Punjab Chief Minister, Prakash Singh Badal

(3) Uttarakhand CM Khanduri with Pokriyal (Courtesy: India Today) (Link)

Source: India Today - Nishank fired after drama to delay exit flops

(4) Manipur CM Okram Ibobi Singh (Courtesy: IBN Live) (Link)

Source: IBN Live - Congress will win minimum 35 seats: Manipur CM  

(5) Goa CM Digambar Kamat (Courtesy: Top News) (Link) 
Source: Top News - Fight against attempts to defame state: Digambar Kamat