MAHASANGRAM - Part IV

THE ISSUES THAT MATTER

Of the four states that go to the poll this year, the biggest is the western state of Maharashtra. After being in power for the last 15 years, the results of the Lok Sabha have come as a jolt to the ruling combine. Together the Congress and its ally, the NCP were literally demolished as they faced a strong opposition - the 'Mahayuti' that the saffron allies, the Shiv Sena and the BJP had stitched together. Even the presence of Raj Thackeray's MNS could not benefit the UPA like they did in 2009 when the anti-incumbency votes were split into the two fractions of the Sena. While many would have expected the NDA to sweep Maharashtra, the recent poll setbacks to the saffron outfit in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, Karnataka, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradsh (Link) seems to have put a serious question before the BJP - can it replicate its superlative performance even in the state assembly polls in winter, especially in Mumbai where it has been warming the Opposition benches since ages. The Congress is trying to get over its disastrous defeat; retaining Maharashtra could signal the beginning of a long pending revival. Meanwhile, state politics is incomplete without considering the three regional parties. Unlike the heartland, the two national parties are not the main players here. Let us see what parameters will impact the outcome of the Maharashtra state assembly polls in 2014.

As they say, united we win and divided we fall. The results of the October elections could simply boil down to the fact that which coalition is able to sustain itself in spite of all the drama over the seat sharing talks. Both the Congress-NCP as well as the Sena-BJP know very well that it is in their best interest to make sure that their respective partnerships survive. However, less than a month before voting, the UPA and the NDA as we know them today, are witnessing media war over seat sharing arrangements. The saffron alliance which stretches back to 25 years is looking extremely shaking; the BJP, high on its earth-shattering performance in the General Polls has rejected the 119-178 formula brokered by Bal Thackeray and Pramod Mahajan in the early 90s. While the state BJP wants to fight on 130 seats, the Sena has refused to give anything more than 125. Besides, Uddhav Thackeray's portrayal as the alliance's CM candidate by his outfit has not been taken kindly by the BJP. On the other hand, the NCP has upped the ante; Pawar's party wants to be an equal player in the coalition. After winning twice as many parliamentary seats as the INC in May, the regional parties wants to have a relook at the earlier formula. Meanwhile, the plea seems to have fallen on deaf years as the Congress has refused to back down from its stand. With cracks developing in the two fronts, it remains to be seen if the allies can bury their differences and patch up. Failing that, it could be a five cornered contest for Maharashtra - BJP vs SS vs Congress vs NCP vs MNS. In fact, what could be more interesting is the realignment of forces; the NCP could tie up with either the BJP or even the Shiv Sena; the BJP could also join hands with the MNS and so on.

As if the tussle over the seat sharing was not enough, the Congress and the NCP are fighting anti-incumbency stretching over a period of 15 long years. The two parties came together after the saffron allies were beaten in the 1999 state polls and ever since have been in power in Mumbai. They were also a part of the Manmohan government for two consecutive terms. The results of the recently concluded Lok Sabha polls has certainly sent shock waves to the incumbent regime. The two partners could only get six seats even as the mega coalition of the BJP bagged the remaining 42. There are speculations that the results may be repeated yet again later this year. The UPA somehow managed to stay afloat in 2009 thanks to Raj Thackeray's MNS splitting the anti-establishment votes. After drawing a blank in the May elections, the MNS will find it difficult to cut into the traditional Sena votes. In the aftermath of the Lok Sabha defeat, there were calls to sack the serving CM Chauhan. However, he managed to stay afloat with the blessings of the High Command. On their part, the ruling combine is busying showcasing the development projects that were completed during its tenure including the Mumbai-Worli Sealink, the Mumbai Monorail, the Mumbai Metro and so on. However, whether the voters buy this argument or not is something that will be clear only on the voting day - October 15.

Remember the Adarsh Housing Society Scam. Yes, the same scandal wherein flats in Mumbai's posh Colaba area which were to be allocated for the widows of Kargil martyrs were grabbed by top several politicians. It was the same episode that saw the sacking of the then CM Ashok Chavan. Corruption is for sure, going to be one of the biggest issues in the upcoming state elections. In fact, three other former CMs, all belonging to the Congress seem to have been in the list of beneficiaries including Vilasrao Deshmukh, Sushilkumar Shinde and Shivajirao Patil Nilangekar. This has become a big embarrassment for the INC. On the other hand, the NCP finds itself in trouble in the multi-crore Irrigation Scam. Deputy CM Ajit Da who was the state irrigation minister for two terms is accused of siphoning off crores of rupees. Besides, his irresponsible statements like the one he made in April last year when he asked if he should urinate into dams to fill water has been panned both by the Opposition and the public.

While corruption has become synonymous with the Congress, the ghost of Babri Masjid and the Godhra riots have kept haunting the BJP for long. Add to it the Sena whose founder Balasaheb had openly asked for voted in the name of religion. 'Communalism' is one of the biggest talking points before that state polls. The force feeding of a Muslim employee in the Maharashtra Bhavan by Sena MPs during the time of Ramazan is going to be raked up by the Congress and the NCP. The ruling parties on their part have already given 5 percent reservation for the minority community apart from 16 percent reservation for Marathas. Similarly, one can also expect the two Senas to raise the 'Marathi Manoos' or the 'Sons of the Soil' argument.  Anti-northern Indian stirs and protests may become common in the coming days.

For long, there have been demands for a separate state of Vidarbha to be carved out of eastern Maharashtra. With the creation of Telangana, this clamour has only increased. In this election season, you should not be surprised if these demands only grow stronger. On this issue, even allies can have a difference of opinion. For long, the Sena has vehemently opposed any kind of division; on the other hand, the BJP has always favored smaller states. Another related topic is the future of Belgaum. Presently in northern Karnataka, there is a significant section of the population here that feels that they should be a part of the Marathi state. However, this claim has been rejected by Karnataka on repeated occasions.

Finally, let us have a look at the leaders who could hold the key as to which party or alliance does well. Sharad Pawar is perhaps, the tallest leader in the state today. However, there is little doubt that his political fortunes, like that of his party are on the decline. After the NCP was routed in most of its strongholds, it is important for the Maratha strongman and his outfit to do well in the October polls. He has taken a big gamble by ditching the Congress and it remains to be seen if it pays off. His nephew Ajit Pawar has made clear his chief ministerial ambitions in a recent interview. With Narayan Rane being appointed as the head of the party's electoral campaign, incumbent CM Prithviraj Chavan has his task cut out. While he has to make sure that the INC does well, he also has to hope that his followers win more seats than those in the Rane camp. Meanwhile, Ashok Chavan can be the dark horse in the CM's race. However, giving the top post to him could backfire on the Congress thanks to the stigma of the Adarsh Scam. In the saffron alliance, Uddhav Thackeray has a point to prove; he can put to rest all the questions over his leadership if he can lead the Sena to an impressive tally. Breaking his family tradition, the Sena pramukh has made it clear that he wants to occupy the CM's post. Finally, for the BJP, the untimely death of Gopinath Munde has jeopardized their plans. Other leaders including Nitin Gadkari lack popular support outside their respective regions.

For more posts in this series: Mahasangram (Link)

IN THE DOCK

THE PICTURE IS LOOKING GLOOMY FOR THE NCP

Courtesy: India Today

It seems that like the Congress party, its alliance partners in the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government too are facing the heat ahead of the Lok Sabha polls. And the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) is no exception. Formed in 1999 by the trio of Sharad Pawar, Tariq Anwar and P A Sangma after they were expelled from the INC for hitting out at Sonia Gandhi over the foreign origin issue, the outfit joined hands with the Congress in Maharashtra months after its inception; the alliance in the state has been strong ever since and the partners have been in power for 14 years in a row now. Similarly, it entered into an electoral agreement with the Congress, conveniently compromising on the principle of its formation for electorally benefits during the 2004 General polls and has been a constituent of the UPA ever since. Of course, there were speculations of Sharad Pawar dumping his former party and allying with the Third Front in 2009; this was furthered strengthened by some regional players suggesting his candidature for the post of the Prime Minister. However, with his outfit managing to win just nine seats and the INC surpassing the figure of 200 on its own, the Maratha leader's hopes of occupying 7 Race Course were dashed. Half a decade later, things have only got worse for Pawar. On the eve of the big elections in May 2014 and the state polls scheduled few months later, the NCP is looking in bad shape; many believe that Pawar's outfit has lost the battle even before it begins. Here is a list of four reasons as to why I would not place my money on the NCP to do well in the two elections.

Sharad Pawar to quit: Yes, finally the big man has announced his retirement from active politics. Speaking to media persons, senior NCP leader Praful Patel announced that the Union Agriculture Minister would not contest the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, paving way for the next generation of leaders to take the party forward. Having joined politics in the 1960s, Pawar has served as the Chief Minister on four different occasions besides being the Leader of Opposition in the state assembly when the BJP-Sena combine was in power. One of the most successful politician of his generation, he was given the all important Defence portfolio in the Narsimha Rao cabinet. However, the NCP supremo has been involved in controversies throughout his 'distinguished' career. Like the Lalus and the Mulayums, he is accused of being involved in several scams and shielding people with criminal background. An opportunist, he was never averse to joining, splitting or allying with parties just for political gains. Probably, his biggest failure of his career has been his inefficient way of administering Mumbai properly during the serial blasts in 1993 and the riots that followed. Even in his tenure as the Agriculture minister in UPA II, several serious charges were levied against him, including the Lavasa project where environmental norms where openly flouted. I am not sure whether that tight slap from Harvinder Singh played a part in his decision to quit. If yes, I would sincerely like to thank him for the great service that he has done to the nation. However, there is a small condition that Patel specified in the press release which is a bit of disappointment. Pawar is ready to continue his tryst with politics (and corruption) and is likely to be elected to the Rajya Sabha from Maharashtra this March. While he will still be a part of the political stage in 2014 and is expected to campaign heavily for the party, his retirement is surely impact the fortunes of the NCP, especially in western Maharashtra, which has been its traditional stronghold.

Anti-incumbency: The NCP has a record which very few regional parties can boast of in our Rajneeti - it has stayed in power for over 14 years in Maharashtra. Winning three elections in a row, so what if it was in alliance with the INC is something to be proud of. However, with great powers come greater responsibilities. While the two partners have given decent governments to the state over the years, the many scandals that have come to light, especially the Irrigation scam that led to the resignation of NCP leader and Sharad Pawar's nephew Ajit Pawar is set to have a negative impact on the outfit's performance. Though it has played second fiddle to the INC throughout the three terms, the anti-incumbency sentiment which is looming large in the state is expected to adversely affect its numbers. In fact, there is a bigger problem for the party to tackle. The Pawar-led party has also been a part of the UPA since 2004. The failure of the Manmohan Singh regime, especially in its second innings is likely to hurt all its constituents. NCP supremo Sharad Pawar has been the Union Agriculture minister for nearly a decade now. The high inflation rates and the sorry plight of farmers in most parts of the country, mainly in his home turf of Maharashtra is giving the party nightmares. On the other hand, the Shiv Sena which has been the NCP's rival in the state has improved its strength, looking much better than it was about two years ago. Also, the projection of Gujarat CM Narendra Modi is likely to benefit the saffron partners in Maharashtra. While there is nothing to suggest that there is a pro-NDA wave in the region, it is but natural for it to gain from the failures of the UPA regime. In related development, Mayank Gandhi has said that AAP will put up candidates on all seats that the NCP will contest.  

Souring relations: The relations between the Congress and the NCP have been far from smooth over the years. I am not sure whether the Congress President has forgotten Pawar's rebellion over her appointment to the post. Although reports of friction amongst the two parties, both in state and the Centre have emerged at regular intervals, the war of words has only escalated in recent times. In December last year, the Agriculture minister had said that country needed strong leaders like Indira Gandhi in what has been viewed as a dig at the serving PM. Reacting to Manmohan Singh's scathing attack on Narendra Modi's candidature for the post of the Prime Minister, Pawar advised the PM to use his words carefully. Now it seems that the discussions over seat sharing arrangement in Maharashtra is further souring the relations between the two allies. In 2009 polls, the Congress contested on 26 seats winning 17 of them whereas the NCP finished first only on 8 of the 22 which it fought on. It is believed that the INC leadership, including CM Prithviraj Chavan are keen to contest more seats this time. Considering the precarious situation that the NCP finds itself in, the party high command believes that it stands a better chance to fight the BJP-Sena partnership compared to its partner. I wonder what makes the grand old party think this way? At a press conference, Chavan suggested a new formula for the 2014 General elections - 29:19. On the other hand, the Maratha leader is in no mood to compromise on this. It will be interesting to see how this concludes in the days to come. Meanwhile, Pawar has made it clear that his party will fight the Lok Sabha in places outside Maharashtra without any consensus with the Congress.

The battle of succession: There is no doubt that Sharad Pawar is a mass leader. Irrespective of how many parties he has changed, his core vote bank has always stood by him. The NCP today is more or less synonymous with him. He is the party's main vote catcher and it is largely due to his presence that it has managed to survive in his home state while sinking into oblivion in other parts. Though the Maratha strongman is expected to be at the helm of affairs for much of 2014, it should not be surprising if there erupts a war of succession amongst the second rung leaders to led the party in the post Sharad Pawar era. The strongest contender is Ajit Pawar, the nephew of the Union Agriculture minister. In fact, it was he who vacated his Parliamentary seat of Baramati for his uncle in 1991. He has served as a cabinet minister in the state government for a long time. Like the NCP supremo, he is a mass leader and he too has been engulfed in numerous controversies throughout his career. Short tempered and unambiguous, he was in the news for the wrong reasons last year; responding to a query on the drought crisis in the state, he sarcastically asked whether he should urinate to get waters in the dam. It looks like he lacks the political acumen of his uncle. Supriya Sule, the daughter of Sharad Pawar may also stake a claim at the top shot. Apart from some social work, her only qualification is that she is the daughter of senior Pawar. In 2010, there were some allegations that she and her dad owned some stake in the IPL Pune franchise. State Home minister R R Patil who heads the NCP in the legislative assembly and the party's lower caste face Chhagan Bhujbal are also nursing ambitions to head the outfit. Former Union minister Praful Patel is the dark horse and he may emerge as the consensus candidate to keep the various warring factions together.

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: India Today
Original: Difficult to implement Food Bill without adequate funds, says Sharad Pawar (Link)