HOLY COW!

THE BAN ON BEEF IS RIDICULOUS

With President Pranab Mukherjee giving his consent to the 'controversial' amendments to the Maharashtra Animal Preservation Act (MAPA) earlier this month, 19 years since the Manohar Joshi led Shiv Sena - BJP introduced it way back in 1995, the slaughter of bulls, bullocks and calves has been completely banned in the western state. Though most of us may not know it, the slaughter of cows in the Maharashtra was already banned when the MAPA was first introduced in 1976. While the BJP had mentioned this point in its manifesto during last year's state elections, the move is seen by many as a continuation of the party's 'soft-core' Hindutva agenda which it has been running, reportedly under the directions from its ideological partners in the Sangh Parivar. In fact, as per reports appearing in many newspapers, the saffron regime in Haryana under Manohar Lal Khattar is keen on introducing a similar legislation in the state assembly with some even indicating that slaughter of cows in the state would be equated to 'homicide'.

Though most Indian states have certain restrictions on the slaughter of cattle, the Fadnavis regime's move has reignited the entire debate on this rather emotive issue. After all, this is a nation where millions hold the cow in such high esteem. While India may be a predominantly Hindu nation, we cannot ignore the fact that we are still a home to about 18 crore Muslims and Christians, many of whom like eating beef. Besides, a sizable chunk of Hindus too have acquired a taste for cattle meat. By banning beef altogether, aren't we infringing on people's right to eat what they wish to. Isn't that an invasion of a citizen's private space and in many ways, in violation to the democratic values enshrined in our constitution?

Of course, they will be many who will make some frivolous arguments - If you can kill and eat cow or bull, why not lions, tigers, leopards and elephants? Why have special laws to protect them? What these people fail to realize is that tigers and elephants are endangered species whose numbers have fallen below permissible levels. Killing even a single animal belonging to such endangered species can be detrimental to their survival and directly alter the ecological balance in that areas that they inhabit. However, the cow is not a rare animal as yet and killing some of them will, in no way, affect their numbers.

There are many who think that non-Hindus should voluntarily give up eating beef just because the majority looks upon or is supposed to look upon the cow as the embodiment of their pantheon comprising of 33 crore Gods. Anyway, even this line of thought is in violation to the core ideals of Hinduism. The religion of the Vedas, as I understand it, emphasizes on respecting diverse range of opinion on all matters and not intruding in people's personal lives, let alone dictating what food they must eat. By enforcing Hindu ideas on non-believers, we are destroying the very tenets that our religion is based upon including mutual co-existence. By this we are doing more damage than people will do by killing cattle.

Though Hindus may have special regards for cows, the underlying principles of the Vedic faith states that God resides in all living beings, be it humans, animals or plants and we should refrain from causing any kind of harm to them. By this, the Creator also resides in chicken, pork and fish, all of which are consumed in many Indian households irrespective of the religion they follow. Hence, banning beef alone will not help or serve any purpose from the religious angle.

Possibly, the people who will be affected most by this move are the ones that earn their livelihood out of slaughtering cattle. As per some estimates, there are about 10 lakh people in India who work in this industry. Besides consumption, a large number of cattle are actually killed to provide raw materials for the leather industry. There has been no talk of how such a these people will either be compensated or rehabilitated. By banning cow slaughter, we are only adding to the problem of unemployment in the country at a time when jobs, both in public and private sector are drying up. Seriously, that is the last thing we need.

So the bottom line is clear; though we know that cattle slaughter may affect a large number of Hindus, the government ought to take the larger picture into consideration and work towards better  and more important things than indulging in petty vote bank politics.

KISS & MAKE UP?

WHY THE BJP AND THE SHIV SENA SHOULD COME TOGETHER

Many expected that the drama that unfolded on the floor of the Maharashtra assembly couple of weeks ago as the BJP government won a controversial trust vote was the final nail in the coffin of the two and a half decade old alliance between the BJP and the Shiv Sena. However, reports in the media have indicated that the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has decided to take matters in its own hands and play the peace maker between the former allies. Whether it was the pressure from the RSS or NCP chief Sharad Pawar's warning to his cadres to be ready for snap polls, Maharashtra CM Devendra Fadnavis has made it clear that the doors are still open for the SS to be a part of his government. At the same time, Railway Minister Suresh Prabhu who quit the regional outfit to join the BJP hours before the PM's cabinet expansion, has met Sena president Uddhav Thackeray to sort out differences. While it is too early to speculate, there seem to be renewed efforts on both sides to come to a conclusion regarding the sharing of ministerial berths in the cabinet. With the winter session of the state assembly to start on December 8, here is why the two estranged saffron allies should bury their hatchet and join hands.

(1) Stability: With the new regime 'winning' the trust motion on the basis of a controversial voice vote, it is not yet clear as to how many MLAs are supporting the Fadnavis government in the 288 member state assembly. The BJP which emerged as the single largest party finished with a tally of 122 seats, 23 short of the majority mark. Even if the party convinces smaller players like the Peasants And Workers Party of India (3), the Bahujan Vikas Aaghadi (3), the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (1), the Rashtriya Samaj Paksha (1), the Bharipa Bahujan Mahasangh (1) and 7 independents to support it, their combined strength will be at 138. Whichever way you look at it, the bottom line is clear - BJP will need the outside support of the NCP to pass key legislations in the House. Taking support of a party that is headed by the Pawars and is infamous for rampant corruption scandals involving some of its senior most leaders is definitely not a good idea. Moreover with the former Union Agriculture Minister making it clear that he would not hesitate to withdraw support to the incumbent government in the future, many in the saffron camp will be feeling a bit jittery. Another option is to ask some Sena and Congress MLAs to resign and then contest on a BJP ticket. The saffronists have already mastered this in neighboring Karnataka in 2007. However, that too will draw a lot of criticism from opposition parties and the media. As such, if the Sena can join hands with the BJP, the government will have the backing of at least 185 MLAs in the house and will cruise through its five year term without any major glitch.

(2) Clipping Sharad Pawar's wings: The NCP supremo is a sly fox; in spite of the fact that his party was relegated to the fourth position in the recently concluded polls, he played his cards well. As it became clear that the BJP will fall short of a majority on its own, he offered unconditional outside support to the saffron party 'for the sake of providing a stable government to the people of Maharashtra'. That was a master stroke since it effectively reduced BJP's reliance on the Sena and was the primary reason as to why the two estranged allies could not come together. And a few weeks later came the disclaimer when the Maratha strongman asked his cadre to be ready for snap polls anytime indicating that his intentions in case things do not go his way. With the state regime being 'at the mercy' of Sharad Pawar, one can expect him to keep Devendra Fadnavis & Co. on the tenterhooks. After the drubbing that the regional outfit got in the Lok Sabha elections and the subsequent state polls, the BJP and the Sena have a golden opportunity to literally 'finish off' whatever is left of Sharad Pawar's political career. If they can sort their differences, they will make the NCP and most importantly, its chief irrelevant in the politics of Maharashtra for at least five more years.

(3) The BJP-NCP 'unholy' alliance: At a rally in Maharashtra during the state polls, the PM called the NCP as a 'Naturally Corrupt Party'. His analysis was spot-on; many top leaders of the NCP including its chief Sharad Pawar, his nephew and former Deputy CM Ajit and daughter Supriya Sule have a host of corruption cases pending against them. How will the BJP justify this move of accepting support (so what if it is outside) from the Pawars after it ran a high voltage campaign targeting the NCP? There are no permanent friends and enemies in politics. However, the BJP and the NCP coming together is very hard to digest. Now, I know many will say that the same applies to the BJP and the Sena. After all, the Sena chief Uddhav equated the BJP central leadership to Afzal Khan - the commander who was sent by Adil Shah to quell the revolt of Shivaji and a much hated figure in the western state. In spite of all these, one cannot deny that the two parties are ideological allies and have been together for 25 years before their bitter divorce a few months ago. Moreover, if the BJP regime goes ahead and launches a probe into alleged scams of former NCP ministers, there is no way that the Pawars will continue to support the Fadnavis regime. As such, it is but logical for the BJP to severe all ties with the NCP and renew their friendship with the Sena.

(4) The Sena needs the BJP...: Yes, you read it right! The Shiv Sena which has been out of power for 15 years in the state needs to be in the government desperately so that they do not slip into political oblivion. The death of charismatic leader and founder Bal Thakeray as well as the split in the ranks following the exit of Raj has led to a large section of traditional Sena workers to gravitate towards the BJP, especially after the elevation of Narendra Modi. Moreover in the last one year several party leaders, dissatisfied with the leadership style of Uddhav have switched sides. The Sainiks were confident that they would win more seats than their former ally in 2014; however, their dreams came crashing down as the BJP won twice as many as seats as the Sena. Lastly, the SS is in power in the Mumbai Municipality (the richest municipality in the country) with the support of the BJP. Although it did much better than the Congress and the NCP this year in the state polls, there is no doubt that the Sena is at its weakest in the last two decades. There is an urgent need for Uddhav to rebuild the party and take it beyond the Konkan and central Maharashtra. For this, it is but necessary for the Sena to be in power.

(5) ... and the BJP needs the Sena too: The Sena has 18 MPs in the Parliament and is one of the largest players in the NDA. Besides, the party has three seats in the Rajya Sabha too. While the saffron outfit has a clear cut majority in the Lower House, it lacks the numbers in the Upper House. As such, it needs allies, especially one like the Sena which has stuck with it even when the BJP was out of power for a decade. Also, a Sena as the primary opposition will be too difficult for the BJP to handle.

MAHASANGRAM - PART V

THE RESULTS

For the BJP, the year 2014 continues to be perhaps, the best year in its three decade long history, that is, if we choose to overlook the setbacks in the by-elections (Link). The saffron outfit created history as it emerged as the single largest party in Maharashtra in spite of bitter fallout with its oldest ally - the Shiv Sena (SS). After the break-up of the two major alliances in the western state, nobody would have anticipated that the BJP could put up such an impressive show, so what if it failed to cross the half-way mark on its own considering that it was a five sided contest. The Shiv Sena did well to win nearly 20 seats more than in 2009 but the performance was far from satisfactory. The Congress and the NCP who had jointly ruled here for three consecutive terms had to face the heat. However, the numbers that they got were better than those in the General Polls fought in May. The MNS was obliterated, quite literally.

The wave of anti-incumbency against the Congress-NCP combine, the numerous corruption allegations against the leaders of the two parties and the image of the PM Narendra Modi seem to have helped the BJP in registering an impressive tally of 123 seats, its best figures in the state so far. There were rumors if the party had not done the right thing by pulling the plug on its alliance with the Shiv Sena, considering that it did not have a solid base in rural Maharashtra. However, the Modi wave worked in its favor; it managed to woo several leaders from the ruling combine on to its side besides holding on to its alliances with several smaller outfits. On the other hand, its former partner, the Shiv Sena was dealt a rude shock. Its 'Uttha' campaign failed as it finished a distant second, winning almost half the number of seats that the BJP bagged. The death of Balasaheb and the rise of Modi prevented it from winning a major share of the anti-government vote. Meanwhile, the Congress should be happy that in spite of winning just 2 seats in the parliamentary polls, it got 42 seats in the state. The NCP was saved the blushes as it managed to do well in its bastion of western Maharashtra and finished with a tally of 41 seats. Raj Thackeray's MNS was decimated; the party dropped 12 seats to end with just one seat. Owaisi's AIMIM and the PWPI (Peasant's and Worker's Party of India) won two seats each.

Perhaps, the biggest winner in the Maharashtra 2014 state polls is the party president Amit Shah. Questions were being raised about his leadership after the BJP's polarized campaign in the UP by-elections failed to get the seats. However, the resounding victory in the western state even after the break-up with the Sena has made the former Gujarat Home Minister the second most influential leader in the saffron camp behind Modi. The results are a big thumbs up to PM Narendra Modi too. He addressed as many as 26 rallies in the state, tearing into the Congress and the NCP while refraining from attacking the SS out of respect for late Balasaheb Thackeray. Five months into office, the Modi waves is fast transforming into a 'tsunami'.

The losers, on the other hand are many. With just 60 odd seats, the Shiv Sena has to reconcile to the fact that it is no more the bigger player in the 'saffron alliance' if it ever joins hands with the BJP in the future. The fact that the party could not even cross the 70 mark even after being in opposition for the last 15 years shows that the SS is on the decline and that Uddhav Thackeray & Co need to introspect to identify the many factors that are ailing the regional outfit. The decimation of the of Raj Thackeray and his MNS is another highlight of the polls. After scoring a blank in the General Elections earlier this year and being reduced to a single seat in the state assembly, many have even begun to write the political obituary of Raj and his party. The Congress too has been forced to eat the humble pie, yet again. Rahul Gandhi's six rallies in the state have not helped the party at all and it seems that the grand old party has nothing to combat the NaMo bandwagon. Moreover, the NCP which was the second largest constituent of the UPA has called off its alliance with the INC. And 2014 continues to bring more miseries upon the Pawars and the NCP. After the hammering in the big polls, the party managed to win just 41 seats in the state.

For more posts in this series: Mahasangram (Link)

The Chart displaying the results was created on Meta-Chart (Link)

MAHASANGRAM - Part III

SENA CHIEF TALKS TOUGH AHEAD OF STATE POLLS

Courtesy: Afternoon

After being edged out by the mega coalition in Bihar and facing shock defeats in Karnataka and MP, see who is preaching the BJP now. It's their own ally and Sena pramukh Uddhav Thackeray. In an editorial in his party's mouthpiece - the Saamna, Uddhav has said that the saffron outfit's defeat in the by-elections needs to be a warning bell for the 'Mahayuti' or the Grand Alliance in Maharashtra. Despite of the coalition decimating the UPA in the big polls earlier this year, he cautioned that victory is in no way guaranteed in November state elections. As if to drive home his point, Thackeray junior has emphasized that the parameters that the voters keep in mind while electing their MLA is drastically different from those the consider before making their choice for the Lok Sabha elections. Taking a dig at his alliance partner, the Shiv Sena chief has said that the state cannot be won just by talking about the 'Modi wave'. Still coming to terms with a rather embarrassing defeat and the controversy regarding Rajnath Singh's family, Uddhav's veiled attacks were the last thing that the BJP would have liked to face. However, with the saffron outfit not very keen to play second fiddle in the assembly elections, the BJP's loss provided a nice opportunity for the Sena to hit back at its oldest partner and show them who is the boss, at least as far as the western state is concerned.

The relations between the saffron allies have been far from cordial in the last few months. So 'confident' had the cadre become after their resounding victory in the Lok Sabha polls that time back, some sections within the BJP had asked the party leadership to break off its ties with Matoshri and join hand with Raj Thackeray led MNS so that they could dictate terms. Though such plans did not materialize, Amit Shah's speech on his official appointment as the new president of the BJP where he said that his party would form the next government in Mumbai has certainly not gone well with the SS. Considering that Shah is extremely close to the PM, there is no doubt that his views on this matter have the endorsement from Modi too. This certainly puts the Sena in a tough position. After all, it has always been the dominant NDA partner as far as Maharashtra is concerned. By hitting out at the BJP, Uddhav is subtly trying to drive home an important point - the Shiv Sena is not Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC) and he is certainly not Kuldeep Bishnoi. While the saffron outfit may have not adhered to the coalition dharma with its smaller ally in Haryana, the Sena is not going to allow itself to be 'bullied' by the BJP. With talks regarding seat-sharing arrangements coming up in the next few days, the Sena's aggressive stance is seen by many as a clear message to its saffron partner that it will lead the 'Mahayuti' in the state polls this November.

Though it did extremely well in the General polls, the real test for the tiger will be in the upcoming state elections. The regional player which has been put of power in the state for 15 years has been weakened following the split in its ranks after Raj Thackeray launched the MNS and the death of its founder and one of the most popular yet controversial politicians in the country - Balasaheb Thackeray in 2012. Ever since Uddhav was placed on the gaddi in 2013, there were rumors of discontent against his style of leadership which was termed as 'incompetent' and 'uninspiring'. Even before the May elections, a host of big leaders switched over to the UPA, claiming that the new party chief was not in touch with the Sainiks on the ground, an art that his father had mastered. Aware that the state elections are a 'Do or Die' battle for the political survival of both him and his outfit, Uddhav has broken off all traditions and has made it clear that he was ready to become the Chief Minister of Maharashtra if the SS-BJP alliance comes to power. While his father had the charisma to hold the Sena together from his base in Matoshri, the SS chief realizes that only power could give him the authority to prevent any further revolts within his outfit. With so much on the line, there is no way that he is going to be cowed down by the BJP in his own backyard. As the various partners within the 'Mahayuti' sit together to finalize the seat-sharing terms, Uddhav Tahackeray has, without mincing any words told the BJP to control is 'ambitions' and not to take the Shiv Sena lightly.

For more posts in this series: Mahasangram (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: Afternoon 
Original: Maha Yuti seals seat-sharing pact (Link)

MAHASANGRAM - Part II

NOT-SO-FRIENDLY BANTER: BJP vs SENA & CONG vs NCP

Maharashtra is one state, where till recently the battle lines were clearly drawn between the two major political blocks in the country today. Of course, while making this observation, I have chosen to overlook both the Third Front which was 'humiliated' in the last General Elections as well as Raj Thackeray's MNS which is yet to pack a punch in the political scenario of the state. Anyway, dubbed as the saffron allies, the BJP and the Shiv Sena (SS) have been together since the early 90s. At a time when other political parties very still wary of forging electoral ties with each other and the 'Coalition Era' was in its early days, BJP leader Pramod Mahajan and Sena chief Balasaheb Thackeray stuck a partnership which is still 'unbroken'. Although the two parties managed to win power in 1994 and formed the government in Maharashtra under the leadership of Manohar Joshi, they were voted out of power in 1999 and have been warning the Opposition benches in the state assembly ever since. Meanwhile, the Marathi outfit was also a part of the various NDA regimes at the Centre. On the other end of the political spectrum is the Congress-NCP alliance - a bond that has lasted for 15 years now. Pawar who broke away from the Congress to float the NCP over Sonia Gandhi's foreign origins had no problems whatsoever in allying with his former outfit for multiple terms in Mumbai as well as New Delhi.

If you think that after years of being together, the two allies may be geared up to put up a 'united' front ahead of the 2014 state polls, then you are wrong. Days before the electoral campaign begins, reports of rift between the coalition partners has 'spiced' up the battle for Maharashtra. Allegation of big-brotherly treatment, differences over seat sharing arrangements and 'irresponsible' statements by leaders has put serious question marks over the future of the major alliances in the state. In this post, I will analyze the two combinations, the issues that have caused fiction between them, the options in front of them and what will happen if the allies decide to go their separate ways.

The End of the road for the Saffron Brigade?

Nearly three months ago, the BJP-Sena and its other smaller coalition partners in the 'Mahayuti' swept the state winning as many as 42 of the 48 parliamentary seats. However, the relations between the two saffron partners has been far from cordial ever since. In spite of being the second largest constituent of the NDA, the Marathi outfit was given just one ministerial berth in the Central government. Though the Sena tried hard to bargain for more representation in the Modi regime, the PM and his party refused to budge, perhaps buoyed by the fact that they enjoy a comfortable majority in the Lower House. The SS too on its part has angered its partner by unilaterally declaring its supremo Uddhav Thackeray as the chief ministerial candidate of the saffron camp, a move that has not gone too well with the BJP. In what is seen as a clear signal to the cadre to 'think beyond the Sena', Amit Shah in his maiden speech as the new party president, has announced that the BJP would form the next government in Maharashtra, a clear indication to Matoshri that the national party would no more play second fiddle to the SS in the Vidhan Sabha polls. Since the 90s, the Shiv Sena fields candidates on nearly 170 seats while leaving the rest - approximately 120 to the BJP.

After decimating the Congress across the country in the big polls and reducing several regional players to 'irrelevance', the BJP has set its goals of expanding in hitherto 'unknown lands', including parts of rural Maharashtra. One of the reasons to appoint Amit Shah as the successor to Rajnath Singh is to expand the saffron outfit beyond its traditional base in the Hindi heartland. After registering such a big win, the party is confident that it will do exceedingly well even in the state polls, irrespective of whether it joins hand with any of the two Senas. A second reason why the BJP wants to renegotiate the seat sharing agreement with the Sena is that it has to accommodate four other smaller players who have joined hands with it, namely the Republican Party of India - Athavle (RPI-A), the Swabhiman Shetkari Sanghatana (SSS), the Rashtriya Samaj Paksha (RSP) and the Shiv Sangram. Finally, another cause of worry for the BJP is the with the Sena fielding more candidates, the chances of the next CM being from the former is even less than that of the Indian cricket team winning a test series away from the Sub-continent. The SS on its part, has tried to 'emotionally blackmail' the national party, reminding it that the Thakerays had stood with it during times, thick and thin. With Sena parmukh declaring his intentions of contesting elections, there is no way that the SS is going to accept anybody else as the next CM of the state in case the saffron camp does win the polls. Moreover, with question marks being raised about his style of leadership and following the death of its charismatic leader Balasaheb Thakeray, the SS and Uddhav have a point to prove and silence its numerous critics, once and for all.

With tempers flying high, the saffron alliance is perhaps at its weakest in its life span of two decades. While both partners may think that they will do well even if they go alone, especially with the strong anti-incumbency against the INC-NCP government the simple truth is that they will not perform well in case they break-up. Though Narendra Modi helped the BJP do well in Maharashtra, the untimely deaths of Pramod Mahajan and Gopinath Munde has robbed the party of a credible face in the state. Also, the thought of allying with Raj Thackeray seems to be far fledged considering the performance of the MNS in the Lok Sabha elections. Similarly, the SS too does not have much of presence in several parts of the Maharashtra and hence cannot even dream of forming a regime on its own. Most importantly, the split in the partnership will end up dividing the anti-establishment votes, thereby helping the INC and the NCP. If the partners can bury their differences and fight the polls together, they are going to storm Maharashtra and form the next government. There is no doubt that the seat sharing arrangements between the two parties have to be revisited and newer allies need to be accommodated. However, if the two parties head towards 'splitsville', the two outfits might be forced to occupy the Opposition benches for a fourth consecutive term.

Are the Congress and the NCP headed for a bitter divorce?

Though they may have shared power for 15 long years in the state, the relations between the INC and Pawar's outfit have never been 'smooth'. However, the point to note is that since the beginning of the year, the tensions between them have only escalated, serious threatening their performance even if they manage to somehow hold on to their partnership. Before the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, senior leaders of the NCP including Shrad Pawar and Praful Patel had predicted that the NDA would bag more seats than the UPA. While this did come true, the paltry performance of the Congress-led coalition in the state of Maharashtra where it was reduced to six seats was certainly not expected. Accusing the incumbent CM Prithviraj Chauhan of failing in his duties, the NCP raised the bogey of revolt, asking the INC to sack him. At the same time, several NCP leaders suggested that they should contest more seats than the Congress in the state assembly elections considering that they had won more parliamentary seats than the national party three months ago. Chauhan, a Gandhi loyalist survived. After getting the blessings of the party High Command, he decided to up the ante against the NCP. At a party rally, he declared that his party was ready to go it all alone for the polls.

From the NCP's point of view, the party believes that the perception that it has been a steady fast ally of the 'corrupt' Congress has been solely responsible for its failure in the recent elections. As such, if the Congress-NCP alliance could project a new face in the assembly polls, there are chances that the anti-incumbency wave could be countered, at least to some extent. There is also a certain section that feels that dumping the Congress and fighting the polls alone could actually help 'cut electoral loses'. In that case, the party could tie-up with either the BJP or the Sena if the saffron alliance breaks up. The 2014 state elections are extremely crucial to the NCP and you can expect the leadership to bargain hard with the Congress. The INC knows that after the drubbing that it got, coming back to power for a straight fourth term is close to 'impossible'. However, with the Opposition lacking a credible face in the state, the INC feels that it has a better chance to do well in the local polls. Secondly, Congress leaders feel that the NCP cannot put the blame of the defeat squarely on the Congress and get away with it, especially after several alleged cases of corruption against Sharad Pawar and his nephew Ajit Pawar.

I think, the two parties have no option but to stick together. Even in that case, they are heading for a rout in the state polls. Probably, the only chance that the allies have of forming the next government if if there is a split in the saffron alliance. Even in that scenario, getting the required numbers will be a herculean task. With 44 seats in the Lok Sabha, the Congress is still licking the wounds of its defeat. With the National Conference walking out of the UPA and several regional players cosying up to the Modi regime, the grand old party needs to keep the UPA united. As such, it cannot afford to anger its oldest existing ally. At the same time, the NCP is no position to fight the polls alone. Like the Congress, the party is battling corruption charges with its senior leader Ajit Pawar accused of being a part of the multi-crore Irrigation Scam. Moreover, the two parties are also facing internal rebellion. Revenue Minister and Malvan strongman Narayan Rane has raised the banner of revolt against Chauhan whereas NCP leader Chaggan Bhujbal is known to be contemplating a switch over to the saffron camp. Lastly, a divorce here will also split the minority votes, thereby benefiting the BJP-SS alliance further. Also, the NCP's 'grand idea' of tying up with either the BJP or the Sena to form the next regime is highly unlikely to materialize, primarily because it will find it difficult even to go past 40 seat mark.

For more posts in this series: Mahasangram (Link)

MAHARASHTRA & LOK SABHA 2014

UPA OR NDA: WHO WILL WIN THIS FACE-OFF?

With 48 seats, Maharashtra is numerically the second most important state from the perspective of the upcoming General Elections. In this key state, the battle lines have been drawn as the UPA comprising of the Congress and the NCP are taking on a formidable opposition stitched together by the BJP. Dubbed as the 'Mahayuti' or the 'Grand Alliance', it includes the Shiv Sena, the Republican Party of India (Athavale), the Swabhiman Shektari Sanghatana (SSS) and the Rashtriya Samaj Party (RSP). While the saffron outfit may have built up a strong coalition to take on the ruling regime, there is a constant fear that Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNA), which has stayed away from the formation, may cause a split in the Marathi votes, thereby helping the UPA like it did in 2009. Meanwhile, with the term of the present legislative assembly ending in about six months time, it is highly likely that even the Lok Sabha polls may be dominated by a mixture of local as well as national issues. 

ISSUES

(1) Anti-incumbency... at State and the Centre: The Congress and the NCP has been in power in Maharashtra since 1999. Now this is certainly a fact they can be proud of. But the problem is that the kind of anti-incumbency against the Congress-NCP combine is huge and many believe that after reaching the peak, its performance can only go downwards from here. Besides, all is not smooth between the two alliance partners. Although he did rule out any formal partnership with the BJP, NCP supremo Sharad Pawar and his party colleague Praful Patel have both dismissed the need for a debate on BJP’s PM candidate Narendra Modi’s role in the Gujarat riots. With 'Secularism' being the glue that keeps the UPA together, Pawar's clean chit to Modi has certainly raised many eyebrows.

Adding to their woes is the fact that there is anti-incumbency against the UPA II government at the Centre. Both the Congress and the NCP have been in power in New Delhi since 2004. The disastrous performance of the Manmohan Singh government is going to hit them hard in most states and Maharashtra is no exception. You can expect the BJP and the Senas to raise topics like price rise and inflation on which the Central government has failed to deliver.

(2) Corruption: If there is one issue that UPA II will ever be remembered for, it is for sure going to be its inability to tackle corruption in the country. Countless scams including 2G, Common Wealth Games, Coal-gate and Chopper-gate have proved that neither the grand old party nor the UPA government has the guts to tackle this menace. And the government in Mumbai too is not far behind. The names of several top Congress leaders including former Chief Ministers Vilasrao Deshmukh, Ashok Chavan, Home Minister Sushilkumar Shinde and Shivajirao Nilangekar were named in an inquiry into the Aadarsh Society scam which was partially accept by the state government, that too after a public rap from the Gandhis. Similarly, the multi-crore Irrigation scam and the alleged role of NCP leader Ajit Pawar is another blot on the incumbent regime.

(3) The MNS factor: Former BJP President Nitin Gadkari’s meetings with Raj Thackeray led to many speculations over the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena entering the grand alliance. Considering the domestic politics in the Thackeray household, it seems next to impossible for the two Senas to come together. The UPA is heavily banking on Raj to split the Marathi votes and this seems to be its only hope to end up with a decent tally. However, there were reports in some sections of the media that the MNS may not contest the Lok Sabha polls at all and rather concentrate on the state elections, in bid to consolidate its standings. If this is true, then the BJP and its allies can be expected to walk away with sizable number of seats from Maharashtra.

CONTENDERS

Now that the formations are clear, I think that we should talk about the alliances and their chances instead of focusing on individual parties.

(1) The UPA: The Congress is on a sticky wicket. Prithviraj Chavan who was handpicked by Sonia Gandhi to be the Chief Minister has done a fair job. However, the rejection and then the partial acceptance of the Aadarsh Inquiry report – a move which seems to have been taken under political compulsions by his government will hit his personal credibility. The scam has dented the prospects of the grand old party and is a near death blow to the political ambitions of Ashok Chavan. With Vilasrao Deshmukh dead, it is up to the SC leader and Home Minister Sushilkumar Shinde to lead the Congress campaign here. As such it will be in the interest of the Congress if the leader from Solapur can control his language – his remarks on media and Arvind Kejriwal are only going to woo the people away from the UPA.

The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) has never looked so weak ever since its inception in 1999 (Link). Like its erstwhile UPA ally - the DMK, the NCP has become synonymous with corruption. Most opinion polls predict that Pawar's outfit may be reduced to single digits. Unlike the great captains who prefer to go down with the sinking ship, the Maratha strongman has got himself elected to the Rajya Sabha. Pawar's daughter Supriya Sule and former cabinet minister Praful Patel will lead the party's charge in Maharashtra. Besides, the NCP will be hoping that its prominent state leaders like Sule's cousin Ajit and former deputy CMs R R Patil and Chaggan Bhujbal will help the outfit do well in their respective strongholds.

(2) The NDA: After warming the Opposition benches for long, the saffronists are sensing victory. With political analysts believing that Maharashtra could one of the states that could see them do well, the BJP has tried its best to give itself a good chance from here. The entry of the RPI (A) and the SSS into the NDA fold will help the coalition woo Dalits and farmers. More importantly, it has put its house in order. Earlier reports suggesting fiction between the Gopinath Munde and Nitin Gadkari factions of the party in Maharashtra have all but disappeared. The BJP is expected to ride on the NaMo wave and counter the UPA on issues like corruption, inflation and economic slump.

The Shiv Sena (SS), which was written off about three years ago will be fighting to retain its political significance in the state. Though the party witnessed a split in its ranks after the dynamic Raj Thackeray walked away to form the MNS, a third straight victory in the Mumbai Municipal polls and the public out pour following the death of supremo Balasaheb indicated that the SS was still an important player in the state. The Lok Sabha and the later state elections of 2014 is a lithmus test for party president Uddhav Thackeray as well as the Shiv Sena with few of its leaders crossing over to the Congress or the NCP. If it can end up with over 12 seats, it would emerge as a force to reckon with even on the Central stage and Balasaheb's choice of his son Uddhav to lead his party after him will be justified. Like the NCP, the year 2014 will be extremely crucial in the political prospects of this party.

A third member of the 'Mahayuti' is Ramdas Athavale's Republican Party of India (A). The Dalit leader was with the UPA in 2009 and has represented Pandharpur and Mumbai North Central in the Lok Sabha earlier. The presence of the Dalit party like RPI (A) in the grand coalition is highly symbolic too as it helps the BJP to get more low caste votes. Raju Shetti's Swabhiman Shetkari Sanghatana (SSS) is popular amongst the farmers, especially in the Hatkanangle region. The entry of Mahadeo Jankar's Rashtriya Samaj Party (RSP) at the last moment will again help in consolidation of the anti-UPA votes.

(3) Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS): The only thing that prevent the NDA from doing well in Maharashtra is Raj Thackeray. Whether you like him or not, the MNS chief is a force to reckon with. His call for his supporters to attack officials if they ask for toll led to violence at many places recently. Many see him as the 'true successor' to his uncle Balasaheb and the kind of emotional connect he has with the traditional Sena base is indeed enviable. With Nitin Gadkari opening back channel links with him, there were reports indicating that he might join the 'Mahayuti'. However, nothing is clear in this regards. At the same time, several smaller parties like Jayant Patil's Peasants and Worker's Party and Vinay Kore's Jan Surajya Party are keen to ally with Raj to form a Third Front.

(4) Aam Admi Party (AAP): While the party would have done extremely well in the state had anti-corruption crusader Anna Hazare lend its support to them, the AAP is still hopeful that it can replicate its success in Delhi in the financial capital of Mumbai, at least on a much smaller scale. The first list of probable candidates has some big names like banker Meera Sanyal (Mumbai - South), activist Mayank Gandhi (Mumbai - North) and Vijay Pandhare (Nashik) who helped expose the irrigation scam.

PAST PERFORMANCE

Looking back into the past, the NDA will be hoping to replicate its superlative performance of 1996 when the BJP and the Sena bagged 33 of the 48 seats in the state. However, they could not hold that for long. The unpopularity of the SS-BJP government under Manohar Joshi in Mumbai saw the allies losing ground to the Congress. With Sharad Pawar still with the INC, the tables were turned as the Congress took home 33 seats, reducing the saffron partners to 10. The following elections though, saw a different trend. After Pawar formed the NCP over the foreign origin issue of Sonia Gandhi, the BJP emerged as the largest party here with a tally of 15 while the 13 candidates of the Shiv Sena made the cut. The 2004 polls saw a close contest with the NDA holding a marginal upper hand here although it was the Congress-led alliance that emerged as the winner nationwide. The UPA dominated 2009 finsihing with 25 seats whereas the NDA took 20.

Political Party	1996	1998	1999	2004	2009
Congress (INC)	15	33	10	13	17
Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)	N/A	N/A	6	9	8
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	18	4	15	12	9
Shiv Sena (SS)	15	6	13	13	11
Others	-	5	4	1	3

MY PREDICTIONS

The Congress and the NCP have stuck to their 2009 formula for seat sharing with the INC contesting 26 and leaving 22 for Pawar's outfit. The seat sharing amongst the constituents of the grand alliance are not yet finalized. You can definitely expect some fiction here considering that there are 5 parties with each trying to maximize its numbers.Meanwhile, I predict the NDA to cross the 25 mark. The UPA will drop seats but will not be routed. The NCP's performance will be below average.

	Coalition	Expected Seats
1	United Progressive Alliance (INC-NCP)	15-20
2	National Democratic Alliance (BJP-SS-RPI(A)-SSS-RSP)	22-27
3	Others (MNS/AAP)	1-5

WATCH OUT

(1) The Revival of the Shiv Sena: This could be the big make or break moment for the Shiv Sena and its chief Uddhav Thackeray. If the party can even retain its tally of 11, it will be a significant achievement and will pay rich dividends especially in the state polls scheduled in late 2014. However the split in its traditional vote banks, may cost it some seats.

(2) Will he or won't he? Will Raj Thackeray's MNS nominate candidates for the big polls or will it concentrate on the state elections is one big question that could change the dimensions in the state. If he does, he could cause serious damage to the 'Mahayuti' in several constituencies. Also, another interesting thing to see will be how Raj can take his party from Mumbai-Thane region to other parts of Maharashtra and what role will he play in the state politics in the near future.

(3) The NCP in transition: With Pawar ruling himself out of the Lok Sabha 2014, an era in the party's history has come to an end. It is but evident that the young Turks will have to take over. Will the transition be smooth? I don't think so. Pawar's daughter Supriya Sule and nephew Ajit Pawar are the front runners to take over. In a comprise, you can expect Supriya to lead the party in the Parliament with Praful Patel by her side whereas Ajit might command the state unit. At this juncture, one needs to watch the moves of senior leaders Chaggan Bhujbal and R R Patil closely.

(4) The fight for Mumbai: In 2009, the UPA won all seven seats in the Mumbai-Thane region. In many seats the NDA was relegated to the third spot after the split in the opposition votes. Can the NDA wrest the financial capital back from the Congress-led front. While this is likely, the MNS can dampen the prospects of the NDA.

(5) Statehood for Vidarbha: With the Congress and BJP colluding to give statehood to Telangana, such demands from other parts of the country are likely. The demands for a separate state carved out of eastern Maharashtra has been raised since long. Both the Congress and the BJP have reiterated their support for the cause. However, the Shiv Sena has opposed the division tooth and nail.

For more posts in this series:
(1) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

IN THE DOCK

THE PICTURE IS LOOKING GLOOMY FOR THE NCP

Courtesy: India Today

It seems that like the Congress party, its alliance partners in the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government too are facing the heat ahead of the Lok Sabha polls. And the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) is no exception. Formed in 1999 by the trio of Sharad Pawar, Tariq Anwar and P A Sangma after they were expelled from the INC for hitting out at Sonia Gandhi over the foreign origin issue, the outfit joined hands with the Congress in Maharashtra months after its inception; the alliance in the state has been strong ever since and the partners have been in power for 14 years in a row now. Similarly, it entered into an electoral agreement with the Congress, conveniently compromising on the principle of its formation for electorally benefits during the 2004 General polls and has been a constituent of the UPA ever since. Of course, there were speculations of Sharad Pawar dumping his former party and allying with the Third Front in 2009; this was furthered strengthened by some regional players suggesting his candidature for the post of the Prime Minister. However, with his outfit managing to win just nine seats and the INC surpassing the figure of 200 on its own, the Maratha leader's hopes of occupying 7 Race Course were dashed. Half a decade later, things have only got worse for Pawar. On the eve of the big elections in May 2014 and the state polls scheduled few months later, the NCP is looking in bad shape; many believe that Pawar's outfit has lost the battle even before it begins. Here is a list of four reasons as to why I would not place my money on the NCP to do well in the two elections.

Sharad Pawar to quit: Yes, finally the big man has announced his retirement from active politics. Speaking to media persons, senior NCP leader Praful Patel announced that the Union Agriculture Minister would not contest the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, paving way for the next generation of leaders to take the party forward. Having joined politics in the 1960s, Pawar has served as the Chief Minister on four different occasions besides being the Leader of Opposition in the state assembly when the BJP-Sena combine was in power. One of the most successful politician of his generation, he was given the all important Defence portfolio in the Narsimha Rao cabinet. However, the NCP supremo has been involved in controversies throughout his 'distinguished' career. Like the Lalus and the Mulayums, he is accused of being involved in several scams and shielding people with criminal background. An opportunist, he was never averse to joining, splitting or allying with parties just for political gains. Probably, his biggest failure of his career has been his inefficient way of administering Mumbai properly during the serial blasts in 1993 and the riots that followed. Even in his tenure as the Agriculture minister in UPA II, several serious charges were levied against him, including the Lavasa project where environmental norms where openly flouted. I am not sure whether that tight slap from Harvinder Singh played a part in his decision to quit. If yes, I would sincerely like to thank him for the great service that he has done to the nation. However, there is a small condition that Patel specified in the press release which is a bit of disappointment. Pawar is ready to continue his tryst with politics (and corruption) and is likely to be elected to the Rajya Sabha from Maharashtra this March. While he will still be a part of the political stage in 2014 and is expected to campaign heavily for the party, his retirement is surely impact the fortunes of the NCP, especially in western Maharashtra, which has been its traditional stronghold.

Anti-incumbency: The NCP has a record which very few regional parties can boast of in our Rajneeti - it has stayed in power for over 14 years in Maharashtra. Winning three elections in a row, so what if it was in alliance with the INC is something to be proud of. However, with great powers come greater responsibilities. While the two partners have given decent governments to the state over the years, the many scandals that have come to light, especially the Irrigation scam that led to the resignation of NCP leader and Sharad Pawar's nephew Ajit Pawar is set to have a negative impact on the outfit's performance. Though it has played second fiddle to the INC throughout the three terms, the anti-incumbency sentiment which is looming large in the state is expected to adversely affect its numbers. In fact, there is a bigger problem for the party to tackle. The Pawar-led party has also been a part of the UPA since 2004. The failure of the Manmohan Singh regime, especially in its second innings is likely to hurt all its constituents. NCP supremo Sharad Pawar has been the Union Agriculture minister for nearly a decade now. The high inflation rates and the sorry plight of farmers in most parts of the country, mainly in his home turf of Maharashtra is giving the party nightmares. On the other hand, the Shiv Sena which has been the NCP's rival in the state has improved its strength, looking much better than it was about two years ago. Also, the projection of Gujarat CM Narendra Modi is likely to benefit the saffron partners in Maharashtra. While there is nothing to suggest that there is a pro-NDA wave in the region, it is but natural for it to gain from the failures of the UPA regime. In related development, Mayank Gandhi has said that AAP will put up candidates on all seats that the NCP will contest.  

Souring relations: The relations between the Congress and the NCP have been far from smooth over the years. I am not sure whether the Congress President has forgotten Pawar's rebellion over her appointment to the post. Although reports of friction amongst the two parties, both in state and the Centre have emerged at regular intervals, the war of words has only escalated in recent times. In December last year, the Agriculture minister had said that country needed strong leaders like Indira Gandhi in what has been viewed as a dig at the serving PM. Reacting to Manmohan Singh's scathing attack on Narendra Modi's candidature for the post of the Prime Minister, Pawar advised the PM to use his words carefully. Now it seems that the discussions over seat sharing arrangement in Maharashtra is further souring the relations between the two allies. In 2009 polls, the Congress contested on 26 seats winning 17 of them whereas the NCP finished first only on 8 of the 22 which it fought on. It is believed that the INC leadership, including CM Prithviraj Chavan are keen to contest more seats this time. Considering the precarious situation that the NCP finds itself in, the party high command believes that it stands a better chance to fight the BJP-Sena partnership compared to its partner. I wonder what makes the grand old party think this way? At a press conference, Chavan suggested a new formula for the 2014 General elections - 29:19. On the other hand, the Maratha leader is in no mood to compromise on this. It will be interesting to see how this concludes in the days to come. Meanwhile, Pawar has made it clear that his party will fight the Lok Sabha in places outside Maharashtra without any consensus with the Congress.

The battle of succession: There is no doubt that Sharad Pawar is a mass leader. Irrespective of how many parties he has changed, his core vote bank has always stood by him. The NCP today is more or less synonymous with him. He is the party's main vote catcher and it is largely due to his presence that it has managed to survive in his home state while sinking into oblivion in other parts. Though the Maratha strongman is expected to be at the helm of affairs for much of 2014, it should not be surprising if there erupts a war of succession amongst the second rung leaders to led the party in the post Sharad Pawar era. The strongest contender is Ajit Pawar, the nephew of the Union Agriculture minister. In fact, it was he who vacated his Parliamentary seat of Baramati for his uncle in 1991. He has served as a cabinet minister in the state government for a long time. Like the NCP supremo, he is a mass leader and he too has been engulfed in numerous controversies throughout his career. Short tempered and unambiguous, he was in the news for the wrong reasons last year; responding to a query on the drought crisis in the state, he sarcastically asked whether he should urinate to get waters in the dam. It looks like he lacks the political acumen of his uncle. Supriya Sule, the daughter of Sharad Pawar may also stake a claim at the top shot. Apart from some social work, her only qualification is that she is the daughter of senior Pawar. In 2010, there were some allegations that she and her dad owned some stake in the IPL Pune franchise. State Home minister R R Patil who heads the NCP in the legislative assembly and the party's lower caste face Chhagan Bhujbal are also nursing ambitions to head the outfit. Former Union minister Praful Patel is the dark horse and he may emerge as the consensus candidate to keep the various warring factions together.

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: India Today
Original: Difficult to implement Food Bill without adequate funds, says Sharad Pawar (Link)

LOST AND FOUND

THE FOREST OWLET

Credit: Nikhil Devasar

When the eminent American ornithologist, Pamela Rasmussen along with David Abott and Ben King of the American Museum of Natural History led an expedition into the foothills of the Satpura Range to gather evidence on the existence of an indigenous owl species in the late 1990s, history was not on their side. The bird they wanted to find and document was discovered in December 1872 and was presumed to be extinct within 12 years with a total of seven collected specimens of which, ironically, none were in India. Earlier, India’s greatest avian scientist, Dr Salim Ali and American ornithologist S Dillon Ripley had failed to rediscover the species in spite of scanning the areas from where the specimens were allegedly collected by British soldier and bird lover, Richard Meinertzhagen. Their efforts even included putting up white and black posters of the bird in the areas adjoining the Melghat Tiger Reserve in a bid to involve the locals in the search operations. Even S A Hussain’s efforts to find the bird in the forests of Mandvi in Gujarat in 1976 proved futile.

The trio began their search in south-eastern Madhya Pradesh (Gomardh wildlife sanctuary and Churabathi), followed by Paikmal forests in Orissa but found no trace of the endemic Owl species. Another attempt in Shahada Forest Division based on the accounts of James Davidson met no success initially as much of the forest cover of the region had fallen prey to India’s rapid economic development After scanning through the forests of Western Maharashtra for ten days, they spotted and filmed the elusive bird on 25^th November 1997 – a hundred and thirteen years since it had been last sighted. The re-discovery of this avian species, by a group of American scientists was cheered by wildlife enthusiast and bird lovers across the globe and added another dimension to the diverse ecology of India.

The Forest Owlet is one of the sixty odd species of the order Strigiformes which are found in India. Also known as the Forest Spotted Owlet and Indian Little Owlet, this avian belongs to the family Striginae (Typical Owls) which is characterized by a large circular head, short tail, cryptic plumage and round facial disc around the eyes. Unlike their cousins, the members of the Tytonidae family are identified by heart-shaped facial disc, formed by stiff feathers which serve to amplify and locate the source of sounds while hunting. Besides, the two families can be differentiated on the basis of the structural details regarding the sternum and talon.

The Forest owlet was discovered by F. R. Blewitt in Busnah-Phuljan region of Eastern Madhya Pradesh in 1872 and was christened Athena blewitti in his honor. He sent the specimen that he had collected to A O Hume, the founder of the Indian National Congress who described it in his book, Stray Feathers. A few more specimens were collected by Valentine Ball and James Davidson prior to 1884 when the beautiful bird strangely disappeared. Colonel Richard Meinertzhagen claimed to have collected a specimen in Mandvi, Gujarat, thereby extending the range of the species. In fact several attempts to track the bird in the twentieth century were based largely on Richard’s account.

However, when researching for her book, Birds of South Asia, Pamela Rasmussen along with Nigel Collar found out that Colonel Meinertzhagen had committed a fraud, decades ago that involved stealing of faunal specimens from museums, modifying accompanying data and presenting them as if he had actually collected them. They found out that Richard’s specimen of the Owlet was actually the last of the five specimens collected by James Davidson and had been relabeled with false data. This had actual hindered the study of these birds of prey in the last century. Armed with this piece of vital information, Pamela decided to locate the Owlet in the jungles of Central India from where earlier specimens were reported and viola, a treasure that had been lost by a man’s greed was traced back and rediscovered, much to the delight of nature lovers everywhere.

Credit: Tarique Sani

With the rediscovery of the enigmatic bird, several expeditions were carried out by individual bird enthusiasts as well as organizations, both Indian and international to gather more data on the Forest owlet’s present status and distribution, to study its behavioral and breeding patterns, to find the reasons that have made them rare and the measures that need to be taken to improve their numbers. It is largely due to the time, money and hard work invested by all parties involved in these surveys that our understanding of the species has compounded considerably, thereby boosting steps to conserve these owlets in the wild.

In their work entitled, The rediscovery of the Forest owlet Athene (Heteroglaux) blewitti (FORKTAIL 14 (1998): 53-55), Rasmussen and King have mentioned the characteristics of the Forest owlet and the factors that distinguish it from its other relatives, besides describing their historic journey into the jungles of central India in Nov 1997. The elusive Forest owlet (23 cm) is slighter taller than the more common Spotted owlet (21 cm), with which it is often confused. It has a rather large skull, marked with small white spots on the forehead, yellow eyes, a pale facial disc and a collar of white spots on the hind neck. While the upper parts including the head, nape and scapular region are dark brown in color, the under parts are lighter whereas the tail and the wings are banded with white trailing edges, with the primaries being rather distinct from the rest of the wings. It is characterized by a dark brown bar across the throat, mainly visible when the bird is in flight.

Kishore Rithe who has extensively traveled across the Satpura ranges on the trail of the species, has noted that each individual has distinct markings, especially on the breasts. The females are slightly larger than the males, perch on higher branches and have more distinct markings.

The 'Dondar Dooda', as it is known to tribals in Melghat, was one of the few Indian bird species whose vocalization was never recorded. However, significant breakthrough was achieved by Rasmussen and Farah Ishtiaq of the Bombay Natural History Society (BNHS) in this regard when they managed to identify and record different voices given by the enigmatic bird as well as its behavior, published as a document, Vocalization and behavior of the Forest owlet Athene (Heteroglaux) blewitti (FORKTAIL 15 (1999): 61-65). A hissing call (“shreee” or “kheek”) is short and cannot be heard over long distances, lasting for 2-3 seconds on an average. The song consists of short, loud and well spaded disyllabic notes and is clearly distinct from those of other common owl species found alongside the Forest owlet. A territorial call (“kwaak…kwaak”) is given by the paired birds, back and forth while within their boundaries and during any intrusion. Other voices given include an alarm call (“chirrur…chirrur, chirr…chirr”), a begging call (“kee…k, kee…k”) made when the female or the young seek food and a contact call (“kee yah, kee…yah”) given by the female when the male gets food to her at the nest.

They perch on trees and scan the jungle below for its prey which includes lizards, rodents, birds, frogs and invertebrates like caterpillars, grass hoppers, stick insects etc. While the feeding perches are closer to the ground and in small trees, the resting and calling perches are seen close to the top of taller trees, which provides a better view of the forest below and keeps them safe from danger. While resting, it is observed to sit on one foot for long periods, keeping either one or both eyes closed for short duration. The preening bouts during resting are short and include face-scratching, wing-stretching, toe-cleaning, beak-wiping against its perch and preening various parts of its plumage. The duo observed that the flights between trees were short, direct and agile.

Credit: Copper Wiki

The peak breeding season lasts from January to February and the females give birth during spring when the prey is in plenty. During nesting, the male does the hunting and gets food for the female and the young. The fledge after about a month but are dependent on their parents for another 40-45 days. Filial cannibalism by males has been observed by Ishtiaq and Rahmani.

In 2005, the Ministry of Environment & Forests (Govt. of India), in association with several state forest departments and other ornithological institutes launched a major survey in the states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Orissa and Gujarat to identify the habitat of the Forest owlet and to estimate their numbers in the wild. Modern techniques like call-playback and visual scanning were used during the census that went on up to mid 2007. The call-playback technique involves broadcasting of the pre recorded calls of a territorial bird species so as to elicit a response from the territorial holder which perceives the recorded call as that of a challenger. A total of 24 birds, including 19 adults and 5 juveniles were found in Burhanpur (Khaknar and Piplod Range) and Khandwa Forest Divisions (East Kalibhit Range) in MP. As many as 20 individuals, 18 adults and 2 juveniles were spotted at the Melghat Tiger Reserve and Yawal Wildlife Sanctuary in Northern Maharashtra. Sadly, no sightings were recorded from the other three states during this survey. All recordings were made at an elevation of 150 m to 500 m and the preferred habitat seems to be dry open teak forests, contrary to popular misconception that the bird prefers living at higher altitudes.  

All the sites were noted to be under moderate to severe human pressure, a fact that could be detrimental to the survival of these rare birds. Cattle grazing, wood cutting, human encroachment and vehicular traffic within its habitat was observed in the course of the survey. Illegal logging has reduced nesting cavities; thereby increasing competition amongst various owl species to occupy the existing ones during the breeding season. Rithe mentions that the proposed Upper Tapi Irrigation Project may end up submerging a large portion of its severely fragmented and limited habitat. Besides, it is also hunted by several native raptors and tribals too. Like other owl species in India, it may also be adversely affected by the indiscriminate use of pesticides.

In fact, the BNHS had sent a proposal to the Principal Chief Conservator of Forests, Maharashtra to declare the forest owlet as the state bird, replacing the Yellow-footed Green pigeon (Hariyal). Scholars at the BNHS felt that such a move could increase awareness about the creature and could increase efforts towards the conservation of the endangered bird. While no one suspected their intentions, a large number of wildlife experts opposed such a move. They pointed out that the bird was found only in a small pocket of the state and was unknown to most Maharashtrians. Also, such a move could increase number of visitors to Melghat Tiger Reserve, adversely affecting its fragile ecology.

Credit: Jayesh K Joshi

Considering the fact that it has been placed in the Critically Endangered category of the IUCN Red List, it is imperative that surveys to gather vital data about this enigmatic owl species are continued so as to help us to formulate an action plan to protect this bird from extinction and to revive its number. It is extremely important to focus on the forests of Central India, so as to clearly identify the habitat and estimate numbers of the Forest owlet with high amount of certainty. The relocation of tribals in the vicinity of its habitat, as in some parts of the Melghat reserve can be highly beneficial. Cattle grazing needs to be regulated and felling of trees has to be prevented at all costs. Besides, a thorough investigation needs to be done into claims that pesticides have led to a steady decline in the population of several species of owls in India, as in case of vultures.  

Off late, studies have suggested that there may be at least 100 Forest owlets within the Melghat Tiger Reserve, which is now being considered to be the species stronghold. While other Tiger Reserves in the country are constantly in the limelight for all the wrong reasons, the forests of Melghat are thriving, along with the flora and fauna that inhabits it, including the owlet. It is our good fortune that Mother Nature has given us a second chance with the them and it is our solemn duty to protect and preserve this treasure. With sheer determination and participation, both from the government and the general public, it is indeed possible to give this magnificent bird an opportunity to avoid doom and give our future generations a chance to witness this gem of nature.

SOURCES

(1) FORKTAIL 14 (1998): 53-55 - The rediscovery of the Forest Owlet Athene (Heteroglaux) blewitti (Link)
Authors: Ben F. King and Pamela C. Rasmussen

(2) FORKTAIL 15 (1998): 61-65 - Vocalization and behaviour of the Forest Owlet Athene (Heteroglaux) blewittti (Link)
Authors: Pamela C. Rasmussen and Farah Ishtiaq

(3) FORKTAIL 16 (2000): 172-173 - Cronism in the Forest Owlet Athene (Heteroglaux) blewitti (Link)
Authors: Farah Ishtiaq and Asad R. Rahmani

(4) FORKTAIL 16 (2000): 125-130 - Further information on the status and distribution of the Forest Owlet Athene (Heteroglaux) blewitti (Link)
Authors: Farah Ishtiaq and Asad R. Rahmani

(5) A Survey of Critically Endangered Forest Owlet (Heteroglaux blewitti) in Central India (Link)

(6) Saving the Forest Owlet - Kishor Rithe (Link)

(7) Wikipedia.org - Forest Owlet (Link)

(8) Birdlife.com - Forest Owlet Heteroglaux blewetti (Link)

(9) Times of India - Experts oppose proposal to declare Forest Owlet as state bird (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Credit: Nikhil Devasar 

Original - Kolkata Birds: Melghat Tiger Reserve, 2009 (Link)

(2) Credit: Tarique Sani

Original - Flickr: The critically endangered Forest Owlet Heteroglaux blewitti [Explored] (Link)

(3) Credit: Copper Wiki

Original - Copper Wiki (Link)

(4) Credit: Dr Jayesh K Joshi

Original - EzineMark (Link)