GUJARAT & LOK SABHA 2014

CAN MODI PAINT GUJARAT IN SAFFRON?

In 1977, Morarji Desai - a Gandhian from Valsad became the first Indian, not hailing from Uttar Pradesh to become the Prime Minister of India. Exactly 37 years down the line, it seems that history is repeating itself. Narendra Modi, the Chief Minister of Gujarat is the BJP's nominee for the top post in case the NDA comes to power. Over the last few months, as the media has reported, a 'Modi wave' has swept across much of the country, at least in the parts where the saffron camp has presence. Even in places where the BJP does not boast of a strong regional structure, his ratings seem to be pretty high. And there is no doubt that the NaMonia has caught much of the western state in its grip. No prizes for guessing that the BJP is winning here. But can it go past the 20 mark in this General Elections, something that it has never managed to do under Modi? Lets try to analyze how the Gujaratis will vote this year.

ISSUES

(1) The Gujarat Model of Development: Having been in power for nearly 13 years, the Gujarat CM who is also seen as the Hindutva poster boy has made development as his election plank. In rally after rally across the country, he has spoken about the different projects and schemes that have been implemented in the state under him. From attracting foreign investments to the development of roads, from creating employment to improving the supply of water and power in all parts of the state, Modi's 'Gujarat Model' has become one of the most talked about issues this year. Of course, his political rivals and detractors have slammed him of indulging in 'crony capitalism' and his failure to protect Muslims during the 2002 riots. At a time when there is so much debate over the kind of work that Modi has done in his home state, this is going to be the dominant issue in 2014 Lok Sabha, at least in Gujarat.

(2) Modi versus the Gandhis: Narendra Modi enjoys solid popularity in his home state, a fact evident from his three consecutive victories in the state assembly elections. Trying to leverage the anti-incumbency against the UPA II government to his advantage, he has accused the Congress of failing to stop corruption and protect the country's political and economic interest. Besides, personally attacking Sonia and Rahul Gandhi, he has been particularly critical of the leadership of PM Manmohan Singh. By projecting Modi as the only leader capable of pulling India out of the 'mess' it find itself in, the BJP's campaign itself has been based around or as the others say, 'hijacked' by the candidature of its PM nominee.

The Congress has been quick in returning favor, accusing Modi of being a divisive figure who is 'against the idea of India'. In a bid to shift the focus from its government's own failures, the grand old party has raised the bogey of 'Secularism' to weaken the BJP's campaign. Besides, the internal discontent in some segments of the saffron camp like the treatment meted out to senior leaders like party patriarch L K Advani, senior leader Murali Manohar Joshi and former Union Minister Jaswant Singh has only given them more fodder to attack the Gujarat CM over his 'authoritarian' style of leadership.

CONTENDERS

(1) Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): The saffron camp in Gujarat received a shot in the arm when the majority of the leaders of the Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP) - an outfit formed by Modi baiters including Keshubhai Patel and Gorhdan Zafaria in 2007 came back into the party fold. However, the ride has not been smooth. It was believed that party patriarch and former Deputy PM L K Advani was keen to shift his base to Bhopal as he had better relations with Madhya Pradesh CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan. After much deliberations though, the party did manage to convince its leader to contest from Gandhinagar. Meanwhile, Advani loyalist and multiple time MP Harin Patak has been replaced by key Modi aide and Bollywood actor Paresh Rawal from Ahmedabad. The CM himself will contest from Vadodra parliamentary seat.

(2) Congress: In the last two Lok Sabha polls, the party did extremely well here, giving a tough fight to the BJP. However, with the Modi wave getting stronger by the day, the INC is clearly on the back foot, at least in Gujarat. Lacking a strong local leader to take on the BJP bandwagon is showing. Former BJP leader and state CM Shankersinh Vaghela was given a ticket from Sabarkantha at the last moment. The party has nominated Rahul Gandhi aide Madhusudhan Mistry, another former RSS member against Modi from Vadodra. This was after city leader and party's first choice Narendra Rawat who had won the primaries decided to withdraw from the race leaving the INC red-faced.

PAST PERFORMANCES

Over the last five General Elections, the BJP has been always had the upper hand. In 1996, the saffron outfit bagged 16 as the Congress claimed the rest of the parliamentary seats from here. In the next two polls, the saffronists further strengthened their hold in Ahmedabad. By 1999, the party's tally had swelled to an impressive 20. On the other hand, ever since Modi has come to power in the state, the fight between the two national parties has been much more closer.

Political Party	2009	2004	1999	1998	1996
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	15	14	20	19	14
Congress	11	12	6	7	12

MY PREDICTIONS

Many in the saffron camp are predicting that the BJP will rout the Congress here since it is the home state of their PM nominee Narendra Modi. However, I believe it is a little bit of exaggeration. No doubt it will win big but the party is not going to end up picking up all the 26 parliamentary seats from here.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	21-24
2	Congress	2-5

WATCH OUT

(1) Modi's political fortunes: There are three scenarios in which Modi may not occupy the top post after the Union Elections. First is if the Congress somehow manages to retain power. Second is if the Congress decided to give outside support to a Federal government just to keep the BJP at bay. Third is if the BJP in need of allies decided to replace Modi with someone more acceptable to its prospective allies. In all these three scenarios, one thing is clear - Modi's political career may be dealt a severe blow, one from which it will be extremely difficult to recover. All the anti-Modi elements within the saffron camp who are quiet at the moment will come to the forefront. Certainly after a such a closely fought campaign, there is no more going back to the post of CM of Gujarat. Moreover, the Congress in Ahmedabad will receive a much needed boost and it may well, even storm the BJP's citadel in 2017.

(2) After Modi, who? Now, in case Modi does become the PM of the country, as many expect him to be, the question is who will occupy the post of the CM of Gujarat. There are three main contenders to the post - Anandi Patel, Nitin Patel and Saurabh Patel. Anandiben, probably the second tallest BJP leader in the state today, holds several key portfolios including Revenue, Roads and Buildings and is the hot favorite. She also accompanied Modi while he was filing his papers from Vadodra. Kuniyil Kailashnathan and Purushottam Rupala are considered to be the dark horses. You never know, modi may even place his right hand man Amit Shah as the helm of affairs if he does move to New Delhi.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

CHHATTISGARH & LOK SABHA 2014

CAN RAMAN SINGH WIN THE STATE FOR MODI?

In December 2013, the incumbent Chhattisgarh CM Ram Singh won a straight third term even as the BJP ended up with an impressive tally of 49 seats (Link). Six months down the line, as the country gears up for the Lok Sabha polls, many are predicting that the BJP will walk away with the majority of the seats from here. As I have written about it earlier, simply winning more seats than the Congress is not enough; for the 'Mission 272+' to succeed, the BJP has to sweep the state, something that it did in 2009 as well as 2004. Though the Congress bagged ten seats less then the saffron outfit in last year's elections, the difference in the vote share of the two parties was less than one percent. The bottom line is that in spite of scripting a famous victory, the results of the General polls in the state of Chhattisgarh is definitely not a forgone conclusion or a cakewalk for the BJP. However, with almost the whole of the grand old party's top brass in the state being killed in the Dharba Maoist attack, the question is whether it has the leaders who can help garner the votes.

ISSUES

Raman Singh's report card: After a third straight victory in the Chhattisgarh state polls, Dr Singh is on a high. Once a municipal councilor from Karwardha, he rose through the ranks to become the CM of the state after the BJP came to power in 2004. As such, he commands a lot of respect amongst the party workers. His Public Distribution Scheme which provides rice at a nominal rate of Rs. 2 per kg has been a big hit and has earned him the name of 'Chawal wale Baba'. Moreover, the use of technology to ensure the proper implementation of this scheme has been appreciated even by the Central regime. Besides, his image as a pro-development man and his impeccable 'secular' credentials have made him the longest serving amongst all the current BJP Chief Ministers in the country, behind Modi. The saffron campaign is likely to revolve around the work done by Dr Raman Singh in the past decade. To add to this, the large turnout at the BJP's PM nominee Narendra Modi's rallies here have further strengthened the party's prospects.

The UPA government's report card: While the saffron camp was able to overcome the anti-incumbency in Raipur, unfortunately for the Congress, it will indeed be an uphill tasks to undo the harm caused by the countless failures of the UPA II government in New Delhi. The Manmohan regime failed to deliver on two issues that have become the talking point of the nation - corruption and development. As if the myriad scams were not enough, the government's inefficiency in controlling price rise and inflation has not gone well with the common man. The BJP will use this as another weapon against the Congress which is already weak here.

Naxalism: If there is one front on which Dr Singh could have done more, in fact much more is regarding controlling the menace of armed Communists. The state continues to be infested with Maoists in spite of steps taken by both, the State and the Central governments. In one such attack in May 2013, most of the top brass of the INC in the state was wiped out. Apart from the Salva Jadum founder Mahendra Karma, the state president Nand Kumar Patel and former Union Minister V C Shukla were also gunned down in the tragic incident. In a bid to win sympathy votes, the party fielded the kin of several of its dead leaders in the state polls and two such candidates - Devati Karma (Dantewada) and Uday Patel (Kharasia) emerged victorious. In absence of strong local leaders to take on the BJP, the Congress may rake up this incident in the General Elections too.

CONTENDERS

(1) Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): After dominating the state politics for more than 10 years and winning the legislative assembly elections less than six months back, the BJP is in the driver's seat. Having dropped just one seat in 2013, Raman Singh is all set to lead the party's charge in Chhattisgarh and is expected to rout the Congress. The voices of dissident in the party against him too have stopped. Karuna Shukla, the niece of former PM Vajpayee has left the party whereas Rajya Sabha MP Nand Kumar Sai, another open critic of Singh has been keeping a low profile lately. The saffron camp which bagged 10 seats in the last Lok Sabha has retained six of its sitting MPs. The prominent ones include state party unit president Vishnu Dev Sai (Raigarh), national president of the party's Mahila Morcha Sushree Saroj Pandey (Durg), sitting MLA Vikram Usendi (Kanker) and the CM's son Abhisekh Singh (Rajnandgaon).

(2) Congress: The state's first CM and controversial leader Ajit Jogi will be leading the party in the state. Though he continues to yield considerable influence amongst the Scheduled Tribes and the Christians, he is also a divisive figure. During the last polls, there were allegations that he had informed the Maoists about the movement of other state leaders who were killed in the Dharba attack. Also, he is said to have ensured the defeat of some of his own party candidates, the ones who are not his loyalists during the state polls. Meanwhile, he has been fielded from Mahasamud, the parliamentary constituency he had won in 2004. Charandas Mahant the only Congress nominee to win the 2009 General Elections in the state and a Cabinet Minister will most likely be nominated from Korba whereas Karuna Shukla, the big catch for the INC will be contesting from Bilaspur.

Others: With the two national parties winning a total of 88 of the 90 seats in the state legislature, you can see why the smaller parties in the state have no chance of winning even a single seat. Of course, the AAP is an exception since it is making its debut here in 2014 and it remains to be seen how much of an impact it can make. The Aam Admi Party (AAP) has given tickets to folk artist Lakshman Masuriya (Mahasamund) and controversial tribal activist Soni Sori (Bastar) who has been accused of being linked to Maoists. With such strong contenders, do not be surprised if Kejriwal's outfit will win one seat. The Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) which had the third largest vote share and won a single seat in 2013 is not expected to open its account. Amongst the other local players are the National People's Party (NPP), the Gondwana Ganatantra Party (GPP), the Chhattisgarh Swabhiman Morcha (CSM), the Chhattisgarh Mukti Morcha (CMM), the JD(U) and the Left parties.

PAST PERFORMANCE

Formed during the NDA regime in 2001, the state of Chhattisgarh has been one of the strongholds of the BJP. While Ajit Jogi was the first CM of the state, the saffron outfit won a handsome victory in 2003 state elections under late Dileep Singh Judeo. However, after the former royal was allegedly caught on tape accepting a bribe, the party chose Dr Raman Singh for the top post. Having delivered on key parameters for 11 years in a row, the incumbent CM's popularity has been one of the biggest reasons for the BJP to do so well here. In fact, I like to call the post 2003 period in the state politics as the 'Raman Era'. Under him, the saffronists have swept the last two Lok Sabha polls here, winning 10 of the 11 parliamentary seats. On the other hand, the Congress has never been able to cross the 40 mark in the state assembly.

Political Party	2013 SE	2009 LE	2008 SE	2004 LE	2003 SE
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	49	10	50	10	50
Congress (INC)	39	1	38	1	37
Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP)	1	-	2	-	2
Others	1	-	-	-	1

(1) There are 90 seats in the Chhattisgarh legislative assembly.

(2) Chhattisgarh sends 11 MPs to the Parliament.

MY PREDICTIONS

The BJP is all set to win the majority of the seats here. However, winning 10 seats like in the previous two polls will be difficult. I expect the saffron outfit to win 8 to 10 seats. The Congress is likely to increase its tally to 2 seats. The AAP has a good chance of bagging one seat.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	8-10
2	Congress (INC)	1-2
3	Aam Admi Party (AAP)	0-1

WATCH OUT

(1) Son-rise in Chhattisgarh: With the BJP giving a ticket to Abhisekh Singh, the son of the incumbent CM, it seems that another dynasty is begining to emerge in Indian politics. Dr Raman Singh enjoys immense popularity in Chhattisgarh and has helped the BJP dominate politics here for a long time. As such, it is not at all surprising that the party has decided to 'reward' him with this gesture. It will be interesting to see how the young Turk performs in the upcoming polls. A win will cement his place in politics and he might even be inducted in the Union cabinet, that is of course if the BJP comes to power in 2014.

(2) The future of Ajit Jogi: A lot is on the line for Ajit Jogi, the first CM of the state. After three straight loses, it is highly unlikely that he will ever occupy the top post, even if the INC comes to power. Although the party does not have any other leader of equal stature, his involvement in several controversies will prove a big hindrance to his political ascent anywhere in the near future. To stay relevant in politics, Jogi has to win the Mahasamund seat which will see a tough triangular contest this time around. Meanwhile, the wheel chair bound politician has already passed on the baton to his son Amit Jogi who is the serving MLA from Marwahi. Besides, his wife Renu Jogi too has won from the Kota assembly seat.

For more posts in this series:
(1) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

BJP AHEAD OF THE CONGRESS...

IN THE RACE FOR ALLIES

Courtesy: IBN Live/Reuters

When the BJP decided to take a gamble by appointing Narendra Modi, first as the chief of its campaign for the Lok Sabha polls and then as its nominee for the post of the Prime Minister, many thought it would never get any allies and would thus warm the Opposition benches for another five years in the Parliament. After all, in this era of coalition politics where no party can think of crossing the half way mark on its own, it is but imperative to have powerful regional satraps on one's side. In fact, in one of the articles that I had written post Modi's anointment (Link), I had mentioned that the stigma of the 2002 Gujarat riots could keep several powerful regional players away from doing any kind of business with the NDA. With Nitish Kumar's JD(U) walking out of the BJP led coalition, it seemed that the saffron outfit was fighting a battle that it was destined to lose. Six months down the line, things have changed. Of course, I need to admit that I was wrong in thinking that a NDA headed by Modi would ever grow beyond three or four parties.

While Nitish Kumar and certain segments within the BJP including the party patriarch Lal Krishna Advani may have been against his appointment, the Gujarat Chief Minister must be given credit for galvanizing a party that seemed to be heading towards doom. Considering his strong Hindutva image, he helped consolidate the party's core vote bank. Next, with a strong leader at the helm of affairs, the war of succession amongst the BJP's second generation leaders too has been brushed aside at the moment. The differences have been dissolved, at least for the time being, and the party has stood solidly behind its PM nominee. Meanwhile, at rally after rally in different parts of the country, the Gujarat leader has spoken about his development agenda. This has helped him connect with the masses who have been disillusioned with the UPA. His poll managers have also done a great job on the social media, boosting his popularity amongst the youth. In the last few months while the BJP has moved from strength to strength, the Congress has constantly been under fire with so many scams being unearthed in recent months. Many allies have marched out of the UPA and several more prospective partners have refused to enter into any sort of agreement with the INC, fearing the massive anti-incumbency against the regime in New Delhi. Finally, after a thumping victory in the December 2013 polls held in four states, it is evident that the BJP is in the driving seat and everyone wants to be a part of the NDA bandwagon.

Of course, one cannot overlook the role of party president Rajnath Singh in 'resurrecting' the NDA. Taking over from Nitin Gadkari after his name figured in the alleged wrong doings regarding investments in his Purti Group, he was instrumental in the elevation of Narendra Modi in spite of strong opposition from Advani and a bitter divorce with the JD(U). As the Gujarat CM toured the nation, talking about his 'vision' for the country, Singh worked behind the scenes to stitch together a mega formation to take on a weak UPA. The first part of the strategy was to bring back those leaders who had walked out of the BJP earlier. Soon, former CMs B S Yeddyurappa and Kalyan Singh were back into the party fold (Link). Keshubahi's GPP too is expected to merge into the BJP soon. Next, Singh went on allying with several smaller partners. The saffron outfit built up solid alliances in states like Maharashtra and Bihar. In Tamil Nadu, where the party has minimal presence, it brought together many Dravidian parties while the Congress seems to be fighting the polls all alone. To go beyond its traditional support base, it has also joined hands with Dalit parties including Paswan's LJP.

Though there is no doubt that the NDA is emerging as the foremost coalition ahead of the 2014 General Elections, it is clear that it will still need many more partners if it has to form the next government at the Centre. In fact, many parties have started sending feelers to the BJP. Raj Thackeray of the MNS has made it clear that he will support Modi for the PM's post. AIADMK supremo Jayalalitha is believed to be close to the Gujarat CM whereas Karunanidhi has also referred to him as a 'good friend'. A lot can be read into NCP chief Sharad Pawar's clean chit to BJP PM candidate. Even Jagan Reddy of the YSR Congress has called him a 'good administrator'. Naidu's TDP is an old ally and is speculated to join back the NDA anywhere soon. The AGP too is a prospective partner; its absence from the meeting of the Third Front leaders does say a lot. And finally, the big catch - the BJD and the BJP too may kiss and make-up.

THE REBELS OF THE SAFFRON BRIGADE

THE FIVE FORMER BJP CMs WHO QUIT THE PARTY

Last week, former Karnataka CM and Shimoga strongman B S Yeddyurappa rejoined the BJP (Link), an year after he had joined the Karnataka Janata Party (KJP) prior to the 2013 state elections. In fact, after the drubbing that it received in the polls and having been relegated to the third spot, the saffron outfit was left with no leader with the ability to garner votes. At the same time considering the lack luster debut that Yeddy's party had, there were doubts raised over his political future and clear question marks on his hold over the Lingayats. As such, the coming together of Yeddy and his former party is seen as a win-win situation for both. Like BSY, here's a look at five former BJP CMs who had or have quit the part at some point of time.

Madanlal Khurana: Khurana along with Vijay Kumar Malhotra and Kedarnath Sahani was one of the founding members of the BJP in the national capital. Having been the President of the ABVP, he rose through the ranks from he grass roots to become the Chief Minister of Delhi in 1993. However, three years later he was replaced by Jat leader Saheb Singh Verma after his name figured in the hawala scam. In 2003, he was named as the party's CM candidate by the then party President Venkaiah Naidu. In the last leg of his political career, he won the battle as he bagged the Moti Nagar constituency while losing the war - the BJP won 20 seats whereas the INC increased its tally to 47. The former Union minister was later made the Governor of Rajasthan. He was expelled for the first time from the party in 2005 after he lashed out at L K Advani for his comments on the Kandahar hijacking. Brought back two months later after he expressed regret over his earlier remarks. In 2007, he was suspended yet again; this time for sharing stage with Uma Bharati who had formed the Bharatiya Jan Shakti Party (BJS) after being shown the door from the saffron outfit. After his negotiations to rejoin the BJP failed, he formally joined the BJS. In April 2008 though, he came back to the party after disagreements with Bharati. While Khurana senior has retired from active politics today, his sons Vimal and Harish are members of the party in Delhi. After they were denied ticket in the 2013 polls, is has been speculated that it may well be the end of the Khurana dynasty.

Keshubahi Patel: Long before Narendra Modi, Keshubhai was the face of the party in Gujarat. After severing as a minister in various state cabinets over the years, he became the CM for the first time in 1995. However his tenure was short lived; Shankersinh Vaghela split the BJP and formed the government with the support of the Congress. In 1999, he led the saffron party to a spectacular victory in the state and was made the Chief Minister for the second time. In 2001, he came under criticism for mismanagement of relief work post the Bhuj earthquake, besides the allegations of corruption and abuse of power. Finally, he was asked to step down, being replaced by Narendra Modi and the rest, as they say is history. In 2002, he was elected to Rajya Sabha from his home state. His first sign of dissidence came in 2007 when he openly targeted Modi during campaigning, asking his community to vote for a change. As the BJP romped home to power, his stature further declined. In 2012 though, he went a step further launching the Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP). Days before the elections, it was believed that the veteran would hit Modi hard and damage his prospects in many places. Much to his displeasure, the Modi wave was unstoppable. Keshubhai was one of the two GPP candidates who won. After his victory, the Hindutva icon extended an olive branch to the GPP chief and went to take his blessings personally. It may not be surprising that Patel rejoins the BJP in the days to come.

Kalyan Singh: One of the most controversial CMs in the party's history, Singh was at the helm of affairs in Uttar Pradesh during the infamous Babri Masjid demolition in December 1991. Following the incident, he resigned and the BJP government in the state was dismissed. In September 1997, he become the CM for the second time and continued for nearly two years. In 1999, he left the BJP to form the Rashtriya Kranti Party (RKP), accusing the then PM Vajpayee of orchestrating a revolt against him. In the 2002, he allied with the Samajwadi Party and won 4 seats. On the eve of the 204 Lok Sabha, he was back into the BJP. It was believed that his entry would help the saffron outfit do well here. While he won the Etah seat, the BJP's performance was pathetic, finishing with a tally of 10. In 2007, he led the party in the state polls and his below average performance pushed him to the sidelines. In 2009, he had a second fallout with the BJP. He joined hands with Mulayum and campaigned for him in 2009. The move backfired for Yadav as the Muslims who associate the Lodh leader with the Babri demolition, voted for the Congress. The SP chief publicly accepted that allying with Kalyan was a mistake, much to the embarrassment of the former CM. Singh launched another start-up - the Jan Krani Party (JS) which was another disaster, . Finally, he has rejoined the BJP and is working hard to make a mark for his son Raj Vir in state politics.

Babulal Marandi: A former primary teacher with RSS background, Marandi came into prominence in 1996 when he came close to defeating Shibu Soren from the Dumka MP seat. In the next national polls though, the Santhal leader did take revenge by beating the JMM supremo as the BJP won 12 out of the 14 seats from the Jharkhand region of the then undivided state of Bihar. A minister in the Vajpayee cabinet, he served as the first Chief Minister of the newly formed state after its inception in 2000. At the height of his political career, there was a section in the party that believed that he was getting larger than it and had to be cut to size. As such, he was replaced by Arjun Munda in 2003. In 2004, he was the only BJP MP to win from the state; in fact even Yashwant Singh was unable to retain his seat. After the debacle in 2004, he was open in his criticism of the functioning of the state government. Things reached a tipping point in 2006 when he quit the saffron party to form the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha - Prajatantrik (JVM - P). He won from Giridh in 2006 by-polls and later in 2009 too. Marandi is fast emerging as one of the most important players in the state; with 11 seats, the JVM-P is the third largest party in the legislative assembly behind the BJP and JMM. Earlier there were reports that Modi was trying hard to woo the Santhal leader with a clean public image to rejoin the party. However, he has made it clear that he will not take any such move in the near future.

Uma Bharati: Raised by Vijay Raje Scindia, Uma was an important member of the Ayodhya movement. She entered politics in her twenties and handled various portfolios in the NDA government. The Hindutva poster girl was on the pinnacle of her political life when she led the party to a fabulous victory in the key state of Madhya Pradesh in 2003 wining a whopping three-fourths majority. The sanyasin was made the Chief Minister but had to resign just an year into office after an arrest warrant was issued against her in the Hubli riot case. In November 2004, she hit out at Advani in front of the media during a party function and was issued a show cause notice. However, she was later let off after the intervention of the RSS. In course of time, Shivraj Singh Chauhan, her bete noire in MP was put on the CM's chair. This further infuriated here. In 2006 she launched the Bharatiya Jan Shakti Party (BJS) and contested elections in several states. However, her performance was average; in MP she could only get 4 seats. In 2010, she was re-inducted into the saffron party and two years later named the face of the UP campaign. Again, her magic failed to woo the voters here. Today, she is the Vice President of the BJP.

CLOSE ENCOUNTER IN C'GARH - PART III

CHHATTISGARH POLLS 2013: OTHER ISSUES

In the early days of the campaign, the BJP appeared confident that anti-incumbency was not a matter and that it will ride to power for a consecutive third term. Luckily for the party, most of its ministers in the state have stayed away from controversies, unlike in Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka. Also, the welfare schemes undertaken by the Raman Singh government are expected to work in the saffron outfit's favor. However, with the battle heating up, it seems that winning again will be a uphill task. After all, if you have held the reins of government for such long, there will be people who will feel let down. While the BJP may find it difficult to convince the electorate, the dismal performance of the UPA II government at the Centre will prevent the INC from deriving full mileage of this situation. Price Rise and the innumerable corruption scandals that have rattled the Manmohan regime in its second term have tarnished the party's image in all the five poll bound states.

With Chhattisgarh seeing a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress and the General Elections just six months away, the top guns of the two parties have come to different parts of the state for canvassing. The BJP's PM nominee Narendra Modi addressed three rallies in the Bastar reigion which went to the polls on 12 November, a week ahead of the rest of the state. On Novemeber 15, he held four more rallies in Chhattisgarh and it was during one of these that he made the infamous 'Khooni Panja' remark which has irked the Election Commission. Meanwhile, the Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi has attacked the state government for failing to alleviate poverty while speaking to the masses. Probably realizing that Rahul was making a mockery of himself and the Congress party in his speeches, the ailing Sonia Gandhi who is still the trump card of the INC too has jumped into the fray. She was present at rallies in several places including Bhilai, Ambikapur, Kota and Durgapur.

In a state that has been infested by Naxalites, it is not surprising that the it is a big issue on which the people are expected to vote. The Darbha massacre which left 28 men dead, most of them belonging to the Congress, has raised several question marks over the administrative lapses of the Raman Singh government. In fact, very few know that the attack on the Congress cavalcade was in response to the the success that the security forces have had against armed extremists. In the last elections in 2008, the BJP adopted a tough stance on the issue whereas the Opposition seemed to be going soft on them. In the past, the Centre and the state government have traded charges over the failure to curb Maoists in the state. The 18 seats located in the Naxal infected region that went to the elections in the first phase might decide the overall winner. In 2008, the BJP's excellent show in the state was primarily because it stole the march over its arch rival in this part of the state. Reports coming from here indicate that the ruling outfit will find it extremely difficult to even come close to its last performance. The Maoists have called for a boycott of the state elections.

While the fight might be between the two national parties, several smaller players are expected to play spoilsports in many constituencies. In case of a hung assembly, they are expected to bargain hard by acting as 'Kingmakers'. The BSP won two seats in 2008 with both of these coming from the Janjgir-Champa region. This time again the party is hopeful of a good show from here. Several non-Congress and non-BJP parties have come together to form the 'Samyukta Morcha' ahead of the elections, which could be a precursor to the formation of a Third Front at the Centre. The constituents of this grand alliance include the CPI, the CPI(M), the JD(U), the Gondwana Ganatantra Party (GPP), the Loktantrik Samajwadi Party (LSP), the National People's Party (NPP), the Chhattisgarh Swabhiman Morcha (CSM) and the Chhattisgarh Mukti Morcha (CMM). The GPP is active in the Gondi speaking regions of the state. The CSM was floated the late Tarachand Sahu and is strong in Durg and Rajnandgaon.

For more on Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections 2013, click here (Link)

SHIV-RAJ IN MP - PART V

MADHYA PRADESH 2013: THE ISSUES THAT MATTER

THE FIRST TIME VOTERS

With nearly 24 lakh youngsters voting for the first time in the upcoming polls, both the BJP and the Congress are going all out to attract them. By pitting the 41 year old Jyothiraditya Scindia against the incumbent CM, the INC is hoping that his clean image will appease the younger sections of the electorate, helping it end the ten year long power drought in Bhopal. In his rallies, the young Scindia scion is seen talking about development and generation of jobs - two issues that matter most to the youth. Meanwhile, Shivraj Singh Chauhan is relying on his Gujarat counterpart to do the same for him. The tough talking and tech savvy Narendra Modi who is also the BJP' PM candidate has caught the attention of the young Indians across the country and Madhya Pradesh is no exception. The much publicized Gujarat model of development, something that the leader never gets tired of mentioning, has caught the attention of youngsters who see it as the way forward to a brighter future. With the younger voters expected to be an important factor in deciding the outcome of this elections, it is hardly surprising to see why the to parties are keen to impress the youth.

THE MINORITY VOTES

Unlike Modi, Chauhan is very popular with the minorities too. In fact, at one point of time when NDA was looking for a new PM candidate for the 2014 polls, some section including the patriarch L K Advani favored him considering his image as a good administrator as well as a secular leader. The Madhya Pradesh CM organizes Iftar parties at his official residence and has worn the skull cap on numerous occasions. No major communal clashes have been reported from the state in his tenure. At the same time, some decisions taken by him including the singing of Vande Mataram and teaching Surya Namaskar in schools have seen opposition from Muslim organizations. As the battle for Bhopal heats up, Shivraj is not taking any chances. Former MP Arif Beig has been given a ticket from Bhopal - North. On the other hand, the elevation of Narendra Modi as the BJP's official PM nominee has given the Congress a chance to play the communal card before the state elections. Digvijay Singh, known for taking jibes at the RSS will be the party's main leader to woo the Muslims.

SMALLER PARTIES

Whosoever is in power in Lucknow tends to get about five to ten seats in Madhya Pradesh too. As such, while the Samajwadi Party (SP) had 7 seats in 2003 polls, they dropped to a single seat five years down the line as the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) grew from two to seven. As such, the SP is expected to do well in comparison with its rival in the areas adjoining Uttar Pradesh. CM Akhilesh is said to be particularly focusing on two regions - Chambal and Bundelkhand and is hoping to snatch about 15 seats from here. The party to look out for will be the Gondwana Ganatantra Party (GPP). Established in 1991, the GPP aims to create a separate state of Gondwana in Central India to support the cause if the Gondli people. It presently has a single seat in the state assembly. The regional outfit has decided to join hands with the the JD(U). Several rebels from the BJP and the Congress have also joined it. It is likely that the GPP may get up to 5 seats this time around. The Left Front will field candidates from 33 constituencies in the state.

For more on the Madhya Pradesh Elections 2013, click here (Link)