CONGRESS' NEW FACE IN GUJARAT

HARDIK PATEL TO LEAD THE PARTY IN MODI-SHAH BACKYARD

Hardik Patel - Courtesy: Face Book

While the suspense over Sachin Pilot's political future continues to hang in the balance, there seems to be some positive news coming out of the Congress camp in Gujarat. In Ahmedabad, the grand old party has decided to hand over the reins to the young Patidar leader - Hardik Patel. For a party bereft of a loyal voter base or a solid leadership in the state, the move is certainly a step in the right direction. With the Congress being out of power in the the land of Modi and Shah since 1998, the appointment of 27 year old Hardik as the Working President of the Gujarat Congress, perhaps the youngest state president for any major political party in India, can prove to be a game changer in the fight for 2022.

For decades, the INC seemed happy playing second fiddle to the BJP in the western state; however, in the 2017 state elections, infused by the energy brought in by the likes of Patel, Alpesh Thakor and Jignesh Mewani, the Congress fought tooth and nail, restricting the saffron camp to 99, its worst tally in decades. Almost immediately though, the party lost its momentum, slipping back to its typical laissez-faire attitude and ended up conceding all 26 Lok Sabha seats to the BJP in Gujarat in the last General Elections. What's worst, months later, several party MLAs walked over to the saffron camp, amongst them was one of the poster boys of 2017, Alpesh Thakor, clearly indicating the rot within the state Congress. While a great opportunity for revival may have been lost in the winter of 2017, it is better late than never; Patel's elevation brings in hopes for a major upheaval in the Gujarat chapter of the INC. Hardik certainly has the potential to be the torch bearer of Congress' fortunes in the western state. With the polls two years away, the young Patidar leader has his task cut out.

Face of Gujarat Congress: Post the heydays of Madhav Singh Solanki and Chimanbhai Patel, the INC in Gujarat has never had a political leader whose popularity spanned across the different regions and communities. In fact, for long, the party in the state was led by Shankarsinh Vaghela, a saffron import. Sonia Gandhi's political secretary Ahmad Patel who hails from the state is more of a organizational man than a mass leader. In the 13 years he served as the Gujarat's CM, Congress leaders like Shaktisinh Gohil, Arjun Modhwadia and Siddharth Patel were no match to Narendra Modi. However, incumbent CM Vijay Rupani lacks the charisma of the current PM. The time is perfect for a young and dynamic leader like Hardik to fill in the vacuum and begin his ascent on the state's political landscape.

The PAAS leader needs to employ a two pronged strategy in his quest to emerge as the new mass leader of the Congress. Firstly, he has to consolidate his position as the biggest Patel leader in the state. However, he has to realize that merely cultivating the state's largest community won't be enough; he has to woo other communities too. Congress stalwart Madhav Singh Solanki built up the KHAM (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi and Muslim) combination and led the INC to a famous victory in the 80s winning 150 seats. Muslims have for long backed the INC but the young leader from Mehsana has to be careful that he does not play into the hands of the BJP in its attempts to communalize the 2022 polls. If Hardik can successfully transform himself from being the leader of the Patels to one who can build and lead a combination of communities against the saffron camp in the next two years, he will definitely be the top contender for the post of CM in case of a Congress win.

Rebuilding the party: After five consecutive loses to the BJP in Gujarat, it is quite natural that the morale of the party workers continues to be at an all time low. In spite of an impressive showing in the 2017 polls, the party has failed to capitalize on the advantages that it gained back then, largely because the party organization is in shambles. Infighting, like in any other state unit is still rampant, with favoritism always scoring over merit and talent. As such, the INC has somehow failed to convert the massive anti-incumbency against the BJP, into its favor. Another problem that has been plaguing the party in Ahmedabad for long is the desertion of its MLAs, especially before the Rajya Sabha polls.

Its now up to Hardik to convert the moribund Congress unit in Gujarat into a well-oiled machine that can take on the saffron outfit. Perhaps, the first step is to do away with old timers who have been warming their posts for years without delivering any tangible benefits for the INC. New leaders need to be identified and groomed before the 2022 polls. Next, Patel needs to galvanize the party cadres, the ordinary Congress worker on the street in the fight against the BJP. The karyakartas need to be enthused so that they can take the party's message to the masses. He needs to make alliances with sub-regional outfits and social organizations dissatisfied with the BJP and take them on board. Ticket distribution needs to be based on a candidate's potential to win and not on him/her being in good books of some top state party leader.

Channelizing the anti-incumbency against the BJP: A large section of the Gujarati electorate has been unhappy with the BJP, especially over demonetization and the hasty implementation of the GST. This was largely evident from the way the party's tally fell below the 3 figure mark in 2017, for the first time since 1993. The woes of the ruling outfit was only attenuated by the absence of a strong leader like Modi whereas the agitation of the Patidars, long considered to be loyalists of the saffron camp, only made the matters worse. That the BJP somehow managed to hang on to power, shows the dismal state of affairs in the INC camp. After ushering in key reforms to rebuild the Congress in the state, Patel needs to work on milking this anti-incumbency against the saffronists. He must shun the comforts of the air conditioned office in Ahmedabad and hit the trail right away. He needs to tour the state, attend rallies and building up the support base for the Congress. The failure of the incumbent regime, especially its below average handling of the Covid pandemic in the state needs to be highlighted. The party's campaigns needs to be innovative and centered around the youth, women and the poor so that dissatisfaction against the Rupani government can be channelized to give INC the advantage.

Hardik Patel's first test will be leading the party in the by polls for the eight assembly seats that fell vacant after the elected Congress MLAs resigned to join the BJP. Every seat that the INC wins in the by polls will enhance his reputation many folds.

While Hardik gets down to lead the Congress in 2022, the message to the Congress High Command would be to have a bit of patience. Expecting the young leader to do wonders in months would prove to a blunder. Hardik needs to be given a free hand, part from funds to take on the BJP. It is generally the Congress' culture to prevent the growth of strong state leaders. From Devaraj Urs to Sharad Pawar in the yester years to the likes of Jyotiraditya Scindia and Sachin Pilot now, the Gandhis have always been known to cut powerful state satraps to size. However, such an approach will not work anymore considering that the stocks of the Gandhi family are at an all time low. Leaders like Patel, Amarinder Singh and D K Shivakumar need to be empowered. It is only through them that the INC can be revived, first in the states and then at the Center.

RIOTS IN UP: ADVANTAGE BJP?

AFTER THE BIHAR SET BACK, CAN THE BJP MAKE A COMEBACK

Courtesy: In.Com

The euphoria over PM Narendra Modi's victory came crashing down after the saffron outfit was beaten 4-6 by the 'Mahaghatbandan' or the Grand Alliance comprising of the RJD, the JD-U and the Congress in Bihar. In spite of sweeping the state in the last Lok Sabha polls, the BJP was humbled in the by-polls with the entire opposition in the state joining hands to successfully stall the Modi juggernaut. With the state going to elections next year, the mega coalition does hold the edge. In Karnataka, where too the party had far exceeded all expectations by winning 17 parliamentary seats in May earlier this year, the saffronists were embarrassed by the INC in its stronghold of Bellary. Besides, the loss of one seat to the Congress in MP also was unexpected. Of course, I will write a more elaborate article on the by-poll results after September 13 when the outcome of the second round of by-elections will be declared.

One of the highlights of the 2014 General Elections was BJP's emphatic win in the mega state of Uttar Pradesh. Having been appointed as the in-charge of UP, former Gujarat Home Minister and Modi's Man Friday Amit Shah got down to task, working out the caste equations, stitching together agreement with smaller parties and organizations and selecting winnable candidates besides giving communal speeches. While the party did extremely well in all the parts of the country, its performance in UP was spectacular; the 71 seats that the BJP won here catapulted it past the 272 mark on its own. Buoyed by the party's fabulous showing in the Lok Sabha 2014 pols, the BJP gone on the offensive, hitting out at the Akhilesh Yadav led government for the deteriorating law and order situation in the state. Amit Shah, now elevated to the position of the BJP president (Link) has his eyes set on the 2017 state assembly polls where the saffronists are hoping to form the next regime in Lucknow after a span of 12 years. The rise in communal tensions following last year's Muzzaffarnagar riots (Link) has only helped their cause. Remember, when the clashes had first broken out, BJP MLAs - Sangeet Som, Suresh Rana and Bharatendu Singh were accused of stoking communal flares. The EC had even rapped Shah for his inflammatory speech at a rally in western UP. A sharp rise in incidents of communal riots over the past few months has put a question mark on the 'secular' credentials of the NDA regime. What has shocked many is the fact that Yogi Adityanath has been put in charge of the by-polls for the 11 assembly segments, scheduled next month. The controversial Gorakhpur MP had earlier in a video, called on the people from the majority community to avenge 'Love Jihad'. With four of these constituencies - Saharanpur Nagar, Bijnor, Thakurwada and Noida situated in Western UP, it remains to be seen if the BJP's attempt at polarization can help it do well.

The other constituencies in UP that will go the by-polls on 13^th September include Sirathu, Balha and Rohaniya in Purvanchal, Hamirpur and Charkhari in Bundelkhand as well as Nighasen and Lucknow - East in Awadh. All the 11 seats fell vacant since the incumbent BJP MLAs were elected to the Lower House of the Parliament. The Samajwadi Party (SP) that swept the polls in 2012 assembly polls is clearly on the back foot. The complete failure of the Akhilesh administration in keeping the law and order situation under control over the last two years has led to an anti-incumbency wave that led to the rout of the Mulayum Singh led outfit in the General Polls. Ahead of the by-polls, the SP chief who has based most of their policies on 'minority appeasement' under the garb of 'Secularism' seems to have become desperate. Nearly three years after he was shown the door, the Yadav strongman was seen sharing the stage with his friend turned foe Amar Singh. This was seen as a move to cut the party's Muslim face Azam Khan to size. In fact, he was even ready to join hands with his bête noire BSP leader Mayawati if Lalu Prasad was ready to mediate terms between the two political rivals. However, the latter turned down the offer since her party never contests by-polls. On the other hand, with the fight expected to be primarily between the BJP and the SP, the Congress is not expected to be a serious contender. Meanwhile, with Mulayum retaining the Azamgarh parliamentary seat, the elections to the seat he vacated - Mainpuri will also be held together with the state by-polls. Retaining his home turf will be a matter of prestige for the former wrestler whereas the BJP would want to pack a powerful punch by causing an upset.

Nine constituencies in PM Narendra Modi's home state of Gujarat will also go to by-elections in the next two weeks. These include Tankara, Khambhalia, Mangrol, Talaja (Saurashtra), Matar, Limkheda, Maninagar, Anand (Central Gujarat) and Deesa (North Gujarat). Having being sworn in as the Chief Minister of the state three months ago, the elections will be a test for Anandiben Patel too. It remains to be seen if she can win the kind of trust that her illustrious predecessor enjoyed amongst the people of the state. The saffron outfit seems to be confident and has put up as many as eight fresh faces. Like in UP, the elections to Vadodara parliamentary seat which was won by Modi will be also be conducted next month. In May, the PM had won this seat with a record of over 3 lakh votes. Up north in Rajasthan, again a state ruled by the BJP, it is another straight fight between the two major national parties. Like in Gujarat, the seats fell vacant after sitting BJP MLAs from Surajgarh, Weir, Nasirabad and Kota - South made the cut to the Lok Sabha. Having painted the state orange twice within a span of six months, CM Vasundhara Raje and her party are expected to sail though easily despite of the INC trying hard to rediscover its winning streak here. In Chhattisgarh though, the fight for Antagarh constituency in the Bastar region may be neck and neck since the grand old party did better than the ruling BJP in this part of the state last year.

In the east, as many as four different states will witness by-elections. Assam which has been hit by communal and racial clashes in the last few months will see polls being conducted in Silchar (Barak Valley), Jamnunamukh and Lakhimpur (Upper Assam). For the saffron camp which bagged 7 of the 14 parliamentary seats from the state this year, it is a good opportunity to perform well and portray itself as a strong contender in 2016. On the other hand, Congress CM Tarun Gogoi needs to first put his own house in order and placate the section of the party unhappy with him so that he could face off the tough challenge posed by the opposition. In the Rangang-Yangang seat in Sikkim, incumbent CM Pawan Kumar Chamling's brother Rup Narayan is in the fray as an independent. The serving CM had won two seats and had vacated this constituency. This has become a major embarrassment for the SDF. In Tripura, the only state where the Communist continue to do well, the CPI(M) is most likely to retain the Manu seat. In Bengal, the TMC is engaged in a four cornered fight with the Lefts, the Congress and the BJP over Basirhat - South and Chowringhee. Though Didi holds the edge, it will be interesting to see if any of the three opposition parties can beat the Trinamool. Moving into the peninsular region, with KCR taking oath as the first CM of Telangana, his parliamentary seat of Medak will see by-polls. While the TRS is expected to win the seat with a huge margin, the INC is looking for revenge for Rao's renegade on his promise of merging his outfit into the Congress. The TDP-BJP alliance too is in the fray. For Nandigama by-elections in Andhra, the contest is between the TDP and the INC after the YSRCP refused to field any candidate. Meanwhile, the date of counting is on 16^th September, three days after the voters cast their votes.

For more on the August-September 2014 By-polls, click here (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: In.Com (Link)

GUJARAT & LOK SABHA 2014

CAN MODI PAINT GUJARAT IN SAFFRON?

In 1977, Morarji Desai - a Gandhian from Valsad became the first Indian, not hailing from Uttar Pradesh to become the Prime Minister of India. Exactly 37 years down the line, it seems that history is repeating itself. Narendra Modi, the Chief Minister of Gujarat is the BJP's nominee for the top post in case the NDA comes to power. Over the last few months, as the media has reported, a 'Modi wave' has swept across much of the country, at least in the parts where the saffron camp has presence. Even in places where the BJP does not boast of a strong regional structure, his ratings seem to be pretty high. And there is no doubt that the NaMonia has caught much of the western state in its grip. No prizes for guessing that the BJP is winning here. But can it go past the 20 mark in this General Elections, something that it has never managed to do under Modi? Lets try to analyze how the Gujaratis will vote this year.

ISSUES

(1) The Gujarat Model of Development: Having been in power for nearly 13 years, the Gujarat CM who is also seen as the Hindutva poster boy has made development as his election plank. In rally after rally across the country, he has spoken about the different projects and schemes that have been implemented in the state under him. From attracting foreign investments to the development of roads, from creating employment to improving the supply of water and power in all parts of the state, Modi's 'Gujarat Model' has become one of the most talked about issues this year. Of course, his political rivals and detractors have slammed him of indulging in 'crony capitalism' and his failure to protect Muslims during the 2002 riots. At a time when there is so much debate over the kind of work that Modi has done in his home state, this is going to be the dominant issue in 2014 Lok Sabha, at least in Gujarat.

(2) Modi versus the Gandhis: Narendra Modi enjoys solid popularity in his home state, a fact evident from his three consecutive victories in the state assembly elections. Trying to leverage the anti-incumbency against the UPA II government to his advantage, he has accused the Congress of failing to stop corruption and protect the country's political and economic interest. Besides, personally attacking Sonia and Rahul Gandhi, he has been particularly critical of the leadership of PM Manmohan Singh. By projecting Modi as the only leader capable of pulling India out of the 'mess' it find itself in, the BJP's campaign itself has been based around or as the others say, 'hijacked' by the candidature of its PM nominee.

The Congress has been quick in returning favor, accusing Modi of being a divisive figure who is 'against the idea of India'. In a bid to shift the focus from its government's own failures, the grand old party has raised the bogey of 'Secularism' to weaken the BJP's campaign. Besides, the internal discontent in some segments of the saffron camp like the treatment meted out to senior leaders like party patriarch L K Advani, senior leader Murali Manohar Joshi and former Union Minister Jaswant Singh has only given them more fodder to attack the Gujarat CM over his 'authoritarian' style of leadership.

CONTENDERS

(1) Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): The saffron camp in Gujarat received a shot in the arm when the majority of the leaders of the Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP) - an outfit formed by Modi baiters including Keshubhai Patel and Gorhdan Zafaria in 2007 came back into the party fold. However, the ride has not been smooth. It was believed that party patriarch and former Deputy PM L K Advani was keen to shift his base to Bhopal as he had better relations with Madhya Pradesh CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan. After much deliberations though, the party did manage to convince its leader to contest from Gandhinagar. Meanwhile, Advani loyalist and multiple time MP Harin Patak has been replaced by key Modi aide and Bollywood actor Paresh Rawal from Ahmedabad. The CM himself will contest from Vadodra parliamentary seat.

(2) Congress: In the last two Lok Sabha polls, the party did extremely well here, giving a tough fight to the BJP. However, with the Modi wave getting stronger by the day, the INC is clearly on the back foot, at least in Gujarat. Lacking a strong local leader to take on the BJP bandwagon is showing. Former BJP leader and state CM Shankersinh Vaghela was given a ticket from Sabarkantha at the last moment. The party has nominated Rahul Gandhi aide Madhusudhan Mistry, another former RSS member against Modi from Vadodra. This was after city leader and party's first choice Narendra Rawat who had won the primaries decided to withdraw from the race leaving the INC red-faced.

PAST PERFORMANCES

Over the last five General Elections, the BJP has been always had the upper hand. In 1996, the saffron outfit bagged 16 as the Congress claimed the rest of the parliamentary seats from here. In the next two polls, the saffronists further strengthened their hold in Ahmedabad. By 1999, the party's tally had swelled to an impressive 20. On the other hand, ever since Modi has come to power in the state, the fight between the two national parties has been much more closer.

Political Party	2009	2004	1999	1998	1996
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	15	14	20	19	14
Congress	11	12	6	7	12

MY PREDICTIONS

Many in the saffron camp are predicting that the BJP will rout the Congress here since it is the home state of their PM nominee Narendra Modi. However, I believe it is a little bit of exaggeration. No doubt it will win big but the party is not going to end up picking up all the 26 parliamentary seats from here.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	21-24
2	Congress	2-5

WATCH OUT

(1) Modi's political fortunes: There are three scenarios in which Modi may not occupy the top post after the Union Elections. First is if the Congress somehow manages to retain power. Second is if the Congress decided to give outside support to a Federal government just to keep the BJP at bay. Third is if the BJP in need of allies decided to replace Modi with someone more acceptable to its prospective allies. In all these three scenarios, one thing is clear - Modi's political career may be dealt a severe blow, one from which it will be extremely difficult to recover. All the anti-Modi elements within the saffron camp who are quiet at the moment will come to the forefront. Certainly after a such a closely fought campaign, there is no more going back to the post of CM of Gujarat. Moreover, the Congress in Ahmedabad will receive a much needed boost and it may well, even storm the BJP's citadel in 2017.

(2) After Modi, who? Now, in case Modi does become the PM of the country, as many expect him to be, the question is who will occupy the post of the CM of Gujarat. There are three main contenders to the post - Anandi Patel, Nitin Patel and Saurabh Patel. Anandiben, probably the second tallest BJP leader in the state today, holds several key portfolios including Revenue, Roads and Buildings and is the hot favorite. She also accompanied Modi while he was filing his papers from Vadodra. Kuniyil Kailashnathan and Purushottam Rupala are considered to be the dark horses. You never know, modi may even place his right hand man Amit Shah as the helm of affairs if he does move to New Delhi.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

THE REBELS OF THE SAFFRON BRIGADE

THE FIVE FORMER BJP CMs WHO QUIT THE PARTY

Last week, former Karnataka CM and Shimoga strongman B S Yeddyurappa rejoined the BJP (Link), an year after he had joined the Karnataka Janata Party (KJP) prior to the 2013 state elections. In fact, after the drubbing that it received in the polls and having been relegated to the third spot, the saffron outfit was left with no leader with the ability to garner votes. At the same time considering the lack luster debut that Yeddy's party had, there were doubts raised over his political future and clear question marks on his hold over the Lingayats. As such, the coming together of Yeddy and his former party is seen as a win-win situation for both. Like BSY, here's a look at five former BJP CMs who had or have quit the part at some point of time.

Madanlal Khurana: Khurana along with Vijay Kumar Malhotra and Kedarnath Sahani was one of the founding members of the BJP in the national capital. Having been the President of the ABVP, he rose through the ranks from he grass roots to become the Chief Minister of Delhi in 1993. However, three years later he was replaced by Jat leader Saheb Singh Verma after his name figured in the hawala scam. In 2003, he was named as the party's CM candidate by the then party President Venkaiah Naidu. In the last leg of his political career, he won the battle as he bagged the Moti Nagar constituency while losing the war - the BJP won 20 seats whereas the INC increased its tally to 47. The former Union minister was later made the Governor of Rajasthan. He was expelled for the first time from the party in 2005 after he lashed out at L K Advani for his comments on the Kandahar hijacking. Brought back two months later after he expressed regret over his earlier remarks. In 2007, he was suspended yet again; this time for sharing stage with Uma Bharati who had formed the Bharatiya Jan Shakti Party (BJS) after being shown the door from the saffron outfit. After his negotiations to rejoin the BJP failed, he formally joined the BJS. In April 2008 though, he came back to the party after disagreements with Bharati. While Khurana senior has retired from active politics today, his sons Vimal and Harish are members of the party in Delhi. After they were denied ticket in the 2013 polls, is has been speculated that it may well be the end of the Khurana dynasty.

Keshubahi Patel: Long before Narendra Modi, Keshubhai was the face of the party in Gujarat. After severing as a minister in various state cabinets over the years, he became the CM for the first time in 1995. However his tenure was short lived; Shankersinh Vaghela split the BJP and formed the government with the support of the Congress. In 1999, he led the saffron party to a spectacular victory in the state and was made the Chief Minister for the second time. In 2001, he came under criticism for mismanagement of relief work post the Bhuj earthquake, besides the allegations of corruption and abuse of power. Finally, he was asked to step down, being replaced by Narendra Modi and the rest, as they say is history. In 2002, he was elected to Rajya Sabha from his home state. His first sign of dissidence came in 2007 when he openly targeted Modi during campaigning, asking his community to vote for a change. As the BJP romped home to power, his stature further declined. In 2012 though, he went a step further launching the Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP). Days before the elections, it was believed that the veteran would hit Modi hard and damage his prospects in many places. Much to his displeasure, the Modi wave was unstoppable. Keshubhai was one of the two GPP candidates who won. After his victory, the Hindutva icon extended an olive branch to the GPP chief and went to take his blessings personally. It may not be surprising that Patel rejoins the BJP in the days to come.

Kalyan Singh: One of the most controversial CMs in the party's history, Singh was at the helm of affairs in Uttar Pradesh during the infamous Babri Masjid demolition in December 1991. Following the incident, he resigned and the BJP government in the state was dismissed. In September 1997, he become the CM for the second time and continued for nearly two years. In 1999, he left the BJP to form the Rashtriya Kranti Party (RKP), accusing the then PM Vajpayee of orchestrating a revolt against him. In the 2002, he allied with the Samajwadi Party and won 4 seats. On the eve of the 204 Lok Sabha, he was back into the BJP. It was believed that his entry would help the saffron outfit do well here. While he won the Etah seat, the BJP's performance was pathetic, finishing with a tally of 10. In 2007, he led the party in the state polls and his below average performance pushed him to the sidelines. In 2009, he had a second fallout with the BJP. He joined hands with Mulayum and campaigned for him in 2009. The move backfired for Yadav as the Muslims who associate the Lodh leader with the Babri demolition, voted for the Congress. The SP chief publicly accepted that allying with Kalyan was a mistake, much to the embarrassment of the former CM. Singh launched another start-up - the Jan Krani Party (JS) which was another disaster, . Finally, he has rejoined the BJP and is working hard to make a mark for his son Raj Vir in state politics.

Babulal Marandi: A former primary teacher with RSS background, Marandi came into prominence in 1996 when he came close to defeating Shibu Soren from the Dumka MP seat. In the next national polls though, the Santhal leader did take revenge by beating the JMM supremo as the BJP won 12 out of the 14 seats from the Jharkhand region of the then undivided state of Bihar. A minister in the Vajpayee cabinet, he served as the first Chief Minister of the newly formed state after its inception in 2000. At the height of his political career, there was a section in the party that believed that he was getting larger than it and had to be cut to size. As such, he was replaced by Arjun Munda in 2003. In 2004, he was the only BJP MP to win from the state; in fact even Yashwant Singh was unable to retain his seat. After the debacle in 2004, he was open in his criticism of the functioning of the state government. Things reached a tipping point in 2006 when he quit the saffron party to form the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha - Prajatantrik (JVM - P). He won from Giridh in 2006 by-polls and later in 2009 too. Marandi is fast emerging as one of the most important players in the state; with 11 seats, the JVM-P is the third largest party in the legislative assembly behind the BJP and JMM. Earlier there were reports that Modi was trying hard to woo the Santhal leader with a clean public image to rejoin the party. However, he has made it clear that he will not take any such move in the near future.

Uma Bharati: Raised by Vijay Raje Scindia, Uma was an important member of the Ayodhya movement. She entered politics in her twenties and handled various portfolios in the NDA government. The Hindutva poster girl was on the pinnacle of her political life when she led the party to a fabulous victory in the key state of Madhya Pradesh in 2003 wining a whopping three-fourths majority. The sanyasin was made the Chief Minister but had to resign just an year into office after an arrest warrant was issued against her in the Hubli riot case. In November 2004, she hit out at Advani in front of the media during a party function and was issued a show cause notice. However, she was later let off after the intervention of the RSS. In course of time, Shivraj Singh Chauhan, her bete noire in MP was put on the CM's chair. This further infuriated here. In 2006 she launched the Bharatiya Jan Shakti Party (BJS) and contested elections in several states. However, her performance was average; in MP she could only get 4 seats. In 2010, she was re-inducted into the saffron party and two years later named the face of the UP campaign. Again, her magic failed to woo the voters here. Today, she is the Vice President of the BJP.

THE LAST KINGS OF INDIA

THE ASIATIC LION

In May 2010, as the country took cognizance of the sorry plight of its national animal and efforts to save the stripped cat gained momentum, spectacular news emerged from the dry deciduous forests of Gir in Gujarat. While the numbers of the Royal Bengal tiger had plunged to 1411, the population of its feline cousin – the Asiatic lion soared from 359 in 2005 to 411, five years later. In fact, this was the first time since the late nineteenth century that the numbers of the Asia’s apex predator had surged past the 400 mark – infusing renewed vigor in the people involved in this success story and showing the world that persistent and sustained efforts alone can lead to astounding results as far as wildlife conservation is concerned.

Meanwhile, the rising human population, loss of habitat, trophy hunting by Asian royals and their colonial successors and rapid urbanization meant that the large cat was wiped off from most of its former range by the late nineteenth century. By early twentieth century, about 13 individuals remained in the Gir forests of Saurashtra, which primarily lay under the territorial extent of the princely state of Junagadh. The King of the Jungle, popularized in myth as a symbol of indomitable strength and revered around the globe for their ferocity, was once widespread across the Asian continent with its habitat covering much of modern day Arabia, Persia, Asia Minor and India. Surprisingly, nearly two centuries ago, the Asiatic lion would have competed with other big cats like the tiger, leopard and Asiatic cheetah for prey and territory. While the lion-leopard and lion-cheetah conflicts are still recorded in Africa, how the two heavyweights – the lion and the tiger shaped up against each other is today, distant history.

One of the earliest fillips to Lion conservation in Gir came in 1900 when the then Viceroy of India, Lord Curzon, on his visit to Junagadh refrained from shooting the large beast and set an example for others to follow. Instead records from the archives of the erstwhile state show that the royal court was flooded with requests for game hunting, both from British officials and other princely states. When the British administration took control for a brief period in 1911, it enforced tight rules to regulate trophy hunting. Notorious in history textbooks for being one of the only two Indian royals who wanted to merge with Pakistan, in spite of an over whelming Hindu populace, the last Nawab – Mahabathkhanji III was a great animal lover and played a pioneering role in the conservation of the Asiatic Lion. On one occasion, when the neighboring princely states refused to provide similar protection to lions outside the dominion of Junagadh, he threatened to burn down the Gir forests. After the annexation of Junagadh into the Republic of India was complete, the lion was accorded protected status by the government and Gir was declared as a National Park and Wildlife sanctuary in 1965.

Encompassing a total area of 1412 sq km, Gir is today considered to be one of the most important protected areas of Asia. Besides being the last refugee of the Asiatic lion or ‘Babbar Sher’, as they are locally referred to as, the largest dry deciduous forests in Western India are home to a myriad species of flora and fauna. A lesser known fact about Gir is that it is a major breeding centre for the Marsh crocodile under the Indian Crocodile Conservation Project of 1977 and nearly thousand crocs breed here so far have been introduced in waters in and around Gir.

Asiatic lions are similar to their cousins, though they have less swollen tympanic bullae, shorter postorbital constriction, and usually have divided infraorbital foramen. They reach a weight of 160–190 kg for the males and 110–120 kg for the females. The color ranges from reddish-brown to a highly mottled black to sandy cinnamon grey. Asiatic lions are highly social animals, living in prides. Their lion prides are smaller than those of African lions, with an average of only two females, whereas an African pride has an average of four to six. The males are less social and only associate with the pride when mating or on a large kill. It has been suggested that this may be because their prey animals are smaller than those in Africa, requiring fewer hunters to tackle them. Asiatic lions prey predominantly on sambar, chital, nilgai, chinkara, wild boar, water buffalo and livestock.

Thanks to the efforts of the Forest Department, the Staff, NGOs and activists, the population of the lions in the region has steadily risen to a significant and reassuring number. Unlike earlier times, when pug marks were the basis of the lion census carried once every five years, the authorities have introduced the ‘Block-Direct-Control Method’ since 2005,eliminating any margin of error in the final recordings. In the last census, which involved over a thousand volunteers, the authorities have counted 97 males, 162 females and 152 cubs. A majority of individuals counted were found to be in the sub-adult category, which is a healthy sign for the future of these majestic beasts. The Lion Breeding Program here maintains breeding centers, carries out studies of the behavior of the lions and also practices artificial insemination. One such center, established in the Sakkarbaug Zoo in Junagadh, has successfully bred about 180 lions. Besides, 126 pure  breds have been given to zoos in India and abroad.

Although there is little doubt that the Gir story is a tremendous success and a role model for many similar experiments around the world, the threat to the survival of Asiatic lion persists even today. They have been poisoned by poor farmers who look upon them as ‘livestock lifters’ and wells dug by them for irrigation act as traps, leading to many of them drowning. Reports of poaching have also been recorded, though they have been few and far between. Habitat destruction by the local Maldhari community to meet the demands of firewood and over grazing by their cattle is a serious cause of concern. Today, farmers grow mango, groundnuts and sugarcane adjacent to the Gir Forest, increasing land values and depleting groundwater and putting more pressure on the lion population.

Also the protected area can barely sustain the large numbers of a territorial animal like the lion and the population explosion of the big cat has exceeded the carrying capacity of Gir, forcing many of them to stray away from the protected area, making them especially vulnerable. The latest census has shown that as many as 76 lions are found in the areas adjoining the reserve, known as Greater Gir which comprises of four districts of Amreli, Bhavnagar, Porbander and Junagadh.

Perhaps, the single biggest threat to the survival of Asiatic Lion is that the present population is highly inbred as it is derived from as little as 13 individuals. Many studies have reported that such population could be susceptible to diseases due to a weakening immune system, possibly causing their sperm to be deformed. This makes them especially vulnerable to diseases and causes 70% to 80% of sperm to be deformed — a ratio that can lead to infertility when lions are further inbred in captivity. In fact a severe epidemic of anthrax or rabies, transmitted from the domestic animals of the Maldharis can wipe out the entire lion population.

As such, the battle to save the magnificent lion is far from won. The authorities here have initiated several steps to boost the survival of the animal. Measures like suspension of logging operations in some parts of the reserve, resettlement of Maldharis families and the shifting of their livestock, and the payment of compensation in cases of livestock killing by lions have been initiated. The forest department has also established check posts, introduced a wireless communication network, and deployed vehicles and weapons to control the movement of people and livestock in the protected area. To counter the problem of drowning, suggestions for walls around the wells, as well as, the use of "Drilled Tube wells" have been made. 

Considering the threat of disease and population explosion in Gir, efforts has been made to establish a second independent population of Asiatic lions at the Palpur-Kuno Wildlife Sanctuary in Madhya Pradesh. Although, researchers at the Wildlife Institute of India have certified it as ready to receive its first batch of trans-located lions from the Gir Wildlife Sanctuary, the state of Gujarat has been resisting the relocation, since it would make the Gir Sanctuary lose its status as the world's only home of the Asiatic lion. Meanwhile, Kuno officials are toying with the idea of releasing some captive-bred lions into the wild, after training them in hunting and survival techniques.

The story of Gir and the resurgence in the population of the Asiatic lions is the result of continued efforts to save the species. The Nawab of Junagadh, the Gujarat government and the people of the state, all deserve their share of accolades and are an integral part of this great success. With the application of scientific knowledge, patience and hard work, the same experiment can be replicated with any other animal anywhere in the country. If we have been able to save the Asiatic Lion from the brink of extinction, we surely have the potential to do the same with the tiger, the Gangetic dolphin and other critically endangered species.

While its primary nemesis, the Princes and the British have long disappeared into the oblivion, the Asiatic lion, besides ruling his tiny yet significant kingdom in Saurashtra, continues to captivate the hearts and minds of the Indians. Though the era of the Rajas and Maharajas is long over, the lion still occupies a preeminent position in the Indian Republic as it is one of the few animals that have made it to the National Emblem. The four lions standing back to back, symbolizing power, courage, pride and confidence have become the face of the country to rest of the world. The King of the Jungle, the last remaining scion of royalty in modern India, is roaring and roaring with pride; for it knows that it future is safe in the hands of its subject.

SOURCES

(1) Wikipedia – Asiatic Lion (Link)

(2) Environment News Service (Link)

(3) Google Books - Gir Forest and the Saga of Asiatic Lion by Sudipta Mitra (Link)