CLOSE ENCOUNTER IN C'GARH - PART III

CHHATTISGARH POLLS 2013: OTHER ISSUES

In the early days of the campaign, the BJP appeared confident that anti-incumbency was not a matter and that it will ride to power for a consecutive third term. Luckily for the party, most of its ministers in the state have stayed away from controversies, unlike in Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka. Also, the welfare schemes undertaken by the Raman Singh government are expected to work in the saffron outfit's favor. However, with the battle heating up, it seems that winning again will be a uphill task. After all, if you have held the reins of government for such long, there will be people who will feel let down. While the BJP may find it difficult to convince the electorate, the dismal performance of the UPA II government at the Centre will prevent the INC from deriving full mileage of this situation. Price Rise and the innumerable corruption scandals that have rattled the Manmohan regime in its second term have tarnished the party's image in all the five poll bound states.

With Chhattisgarh seeing a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress and the General Elections just six months away, the top guns of the two parties have come to different parts of the state for canvassing. The BJP's PM nominee Narendra Modi addressed three rallies in the Bastar reigion which went to the polls on 12 November, a week ahead of the rest of the state. On Novemeber 15, he held four more rallies in Chhattisgarh and it was during one of these that he made the infamous 'Khooni Panja' remark which has irked the Election Commission. Meanwhile, the Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi has attacked the state government for failing to alleviate poverty while speaking to the masses. Probably realizing that Rahul was making a mockery of himself and the Congress party in his speeches, the ailing Sonia Gandhi who is still the trump card of the INC too has jumped into the fray. She was present at rallies in several places including Bhilai, Ambikapur, Kota and Durgapur.

In a state that has been infested by Naxalites, it is not surprising that the it is a big issue on which the people are expected to vote. The Darbha massacre which left 28 men dead, most of them belonging to the Congress, has raised several question marks over the administrative lapses of the Raman Singh government. In fact, very few know that the attack on the Congress cavalcade was in response to the the success that the security forces have had against armed extremists. In the last elections in 2008, the BJP adopted a tough stance on the issue whereas the Opposition seemed to be going soft on them. In the past, the Centre and the state government have traded charges over the failure to curb Maoists in the state. The 18 seats located in the Naxal infected region that went to the elections in the first phase might decide the overall winner. In 2008, the BJP's excellent show in the state was primarily because it stole the march over its arch rival in this part of the state. Reports coming from here indicate that the ruling outfit will find it extremely difficult to even come close to its last performance. The Maoists have called for a boycott of the state elections.

While the fight might be between the two national parties, several smaller players are expected to play spoilsports in many constituencies. In case of a hung assembly, they are expected to bargain hard by acting as 'Kingmakers'. The BSP won two seats in 2008 with both of these coming from the Janjgir-Champa region. This time again the party is hopeful of a good show from here. Several non-Congress and non-BJP parties have come together to form the 'Samyukta Morcha' ahead of the elections, which could be a precursor to the formation of a Third Front at the Centre. The constituents of this grand alliance include the CPI, the CPI(M), the JD(U), the Gondwana Ganatantra Party (GPP), the Loktantrik Samajwadi Party (LSP), the National People's Party (NPP), the Chhattisgarh Swabhiman Morcha (CSM) and the Chhattisgarh Mukti Morcha (CMM). The GPP is active in the Gondi speaking regions of the state. The CSM was floated the late Tarachand Sahu and is strong in Durg and Rajnandgaon.

For more on Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections 2013, click here (Link)

CLOSE ENCOUNTER IN C'GARH - PART II

CHHATTISGARH POLLS 2013: CAN THE CONGRESS STORM RAIPUR?

For the Congress which is warming the opposition benches in the Chhattisgarh legislative assembly for the last decade, the massacre of most of its top leadership in the state in the Darbha naxal attack on 25 May, 2013 was indeed a crushing blow. As a part of the Parivartan rally launched by the party to fight the Raman Singh government, about 200 Congressmen were on their way to Keshloor after addressing a rally in Sukhma. En route, their cavalcade was fired upon by hundreds of armed Maoists who had set up a trap for them. Nand Kumar Patel, the state party President and his son Dinesh were taken alive and later killed. Senior leader Vidya Charan Shukla who served as a cabinet minister on several occasions also died after being hit multiple times. However, the target for the armed Communists was Mahendra Karma, a former MLA and the founder of the controversial Salva Jadum - an organization of tribals formed to fight the Maoist which was disbanded later by an order of the Supreme Court. Other leaders who died in this unfortunate encounter include Uday Mudaliyar and Gopal Madhavan.

Though the incident was a big blow for the Congress, this has not stopped the party from drawing political mileage out of the situation. In a bid to gain sympathy votes, tickets have been allocated to the kin of many of the slain men. Devati Karma - the wife of Mahendra Karma, popularly known as the 'Tiger of Dantewada' has been given a party ticket from Dantewada seat. Similarly, Umesh Patel, the younger son of Nand Kumar Patel will be contesting from Kharasia. It should not be surprising if the Congress wins these two seats with a heavy margin. A master stroke of sorts from the Opposition camp is the nomination of Alka Mudliyar - the wife of Uday Mudliyar from Rajnandgaon against the incumbent CM Raman Singh. While the BJP is confident that their leader will win an easy victory from this constituency owing to the work he has done in the state in the last decade, the sympathy votes can swing the balance in the favor of the Congress. The rebellion by Vajpayee's niece Karuna Shukla has made the matters worse for the saffron outfit. The fact that the constituency has never re-elected its sitting MLA should be a reason enough for the BJP to take Alka seriously.

While it was expected that Patel would lead the INC's charge in the state, the incident has brought Ajit Jogi - the first CM of the Chhattisgarh, back into prominence. It seems that life has come a full circle for this Scheduled Caste leader. After the Congress lost power to the BJP in 2003, his name figured in a controversy which saw him being suspended from the party. It was alleged that he used Sonia Gandhi's name to break the BJP legislature in the state. However, following a deadly car incident which has left him wheel chair ridden for life, he was brought back into the party and given a ticket from Mahasamund which he won. He represented the Marwahi seat in the last assembly polls. In fact, Jogi was supposed to travel with other party leaders on that fateful day in May when the Darbha attack took place. Luckily for him, he took the chopper and was saved. With the death of most of his prominent peers, Ajit Jogi has become the face of the Congress campaign in Chhattisgarh.

The elevation of Jogi has to some extent divided the INC camp. On one hand, Jogi has the backing of the Scheduled Caste, especially the Satnamis. With the reservations for Scheduled Castes reduced from 16 to 12 percent, they are angry with the incumbent government and the Congress is trying to cash in on it. Also since he is a practicing Christian, he is expected to get the support of Church in areas where it has considerable influence. However, naming him for the top post has its share of cons too. On various occasions, his name has figured in several scandals, the most famous being the allegation that he had procured a fake caste certificate in his early days. In fact, there is a certain section of the party that feels that he has a hand to play in the Naxal attack. They say that he may have given details of the movement of the Congress entourage to the Maoists. Nonetheless, he has managed to get over 40 seats for his followers all across the state. In about 15 constituencies where his suggestions were ignored, he is said to have fielded independents to assert his influence here. Meanwhile, his wife Renu Jogi has filed her papers from Kota whereas his son Amit Jogi will contest from Marwahi on a Congress ticket.

For more on Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections 2013, click here (Link)

CLOSE ENCOUNTER IN C'GARH - PART I

CHHATTISGARH 2013: WILL SINGH BE THE KING?

Courtesy: India TV News

Of the five states that go to the polls at the fag end of the year, the contest in Chhattisgarh is expected to be the closest. The events that have happened here in the last few months just surprises me. About six months back, the odds were in favor of the BJP; it was expected that Raman Singh's clean image and the schemes implemented under his tenure of 10 years would help his party cross the half way mark with ease. However, the unfortunate incident in Dharba which wiped off the entire local party leadership seems to have charged the Congress camp. Recent reports coming out of Raipur suggest a neck to neck contest for most of the 90 seats in the legislature. Like in all of the poll bound states in the heartland, the two national parties are trying their best to garner support, aware that a good show will also reflect in the Lok Sabha 2014.

A doctor in Ayurvedic medicine, Dr Raman Singh commands immense respect in political circles as he is one of the few leaders to have come from the grassroots. Once a municipal councilor from Kawardha, he progressed to become the Union Minister for Commerce and Industry in the Vajpayee cabinet. His big moment, though came in 2003 when the BJP came to power in the first elections held in the newly created state. As the party's CM candidature Dilip Singh Judeo was caught on camera, allegedly accepting a bribe, Raman who was the BJP state president back then was chosen for the top job. Ever since, he has not looked back. Sticking to the development card, he won a second consecutive term in the 2008 polls. Like his counterpart in Madhya Pradesh and much unlike another Dr Singh who heads the country, Raman is extremely popular amongst the electorate, owing to his clean image. In contrast to other BJP leaders, the secular credentials of the incumbent CM have never been an issue of debate. In fact, of all present CMs of the saffron party, Dr Singh is the second longest serving, behind Narendra Modi.

Amongst the various schemes launched during his tenure, the most well known is the reformed Public Distribution Scheme (PDS). Under this, rice is given at a nominal rate of Rs 2 per kg for BPL families. With the aid of technology, the Chhattisgarh regime has made sure that the poor can avail the benefits of this programme. Firstly, the government has provided chip enabled ration cards which when swiped, can tell the details of the family including its income range and the stock that they are entitled to. Besides computerizing kirana shops, the government has also put in stringent measures while selecting PDS dealership. GPS enabled vehicles are used to transport grains to these shops and several steps are put into place to ensure that the public can spot and report malpractices. The whole process is monitored by a central server. The success of the Chhattisgarh system has won praises by both civil society and some members of the Opposition. This scheme has earned Singh a new name - that of 'Chawal wale baba'.

However, in the run up to the polls, cracks have emerged in the saffron camp. In a bid to curtail losses due to anti-incumbency, the party had dropped 13 MLAs while giving ticket to 25 fresh faces. As such, it is not so surprising that disgrunted members have either jumped on to the Congress bandwagon or have entered the fray as independents. Leading this is Karuna Shukla, the niece of former PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee who quit the party after being denied a nomination. After resigning from the BJP, she is canvassing for Alka Mudliyar who is the Congress nominee from Rajnandgaon - the CM's constituency. Five time legislator and former minister Ganesh Ram Bhagat has filed his nomination as an independent from Jashpur. Rajya Sabha MP Nand Kumar Sai has been an open critic of the Singh government. Considering that even a small margin swing can decide the final outcome of the results in a state like Chhattisgarh, internal fued can deny Singh a third term.

For more on Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections 2013, click here (Link)

SHIV-RAJ IN MP - PART V

MADHYA PRADESH 2013: THE ISSUES THAT MATTER

THE FIRST TIME VOTERS

With nearly 24 lakh youngsters voting for the first time in the upcoming polls, both the BJP and the Congress are going all out to attract them. By pitting the 41 year old Jyothiraditya Scindia against the incumbent CM, the INC is hoping that his clean image will appease the younger sections of the electorate, helping it end the ten year long power drought in Bhopal. In his rallies, the young Scindia scion is seen talking about development and generation of jobs - two issues that matter most to the youth. Meanwhile, Shivraj Singh Chauhan is relying on his Gujarat counterpart to do the same for him. The tough talking and tech savvy Narendra Modi who is also the BJP' PM candidate has caught the attention of the young Indians across the country and Madhya Pradesh is no exception. The much publicized Gujarat model of development, something that the leader never gets tired of mentioning, has caught the attention of youngsters who see it as the way forward to a brighter future. With the younger voters expected to be an important factor in deciding the outcome of this elections, it is hardly surprising to see why the to parties are keen to impress the youth.

THE MINORITY VOTES

Unlike Modi, Chauhan is very popular with the minorities too. In fact, at one point of time when NDA was looking for a new PM candidate for the 2014 polls, some section including the patriarch L K Advani favored him considering his image as a good administrator as well as a secular leader. The Madhya Pradesh CM organizes Iftar parties at his official residence and has worn the skull cap on numerous occasions. No major communal clashes have been reported from the state in his tenure. At the same time, some decisions taken by him including the singing of Vande Mataram and teaching Surya Namaskar in schools have seen opposition from Muslim organizations. As the battle for Bhopal heats up, Shivraj is not taking any chances. Former MP Arif Beig has been given a ticket from Bhopal - North. On the other hand, the elevation of Narendra Modi as the BJP's official PM nominee has given the Congress a chance to play the communal card before the state elections. Digvijay Singh, known for taking jibes at the RSS will be the party's main leader to woo the Muslims.

SMALLER PARTIES

Whosoever is in power in Lucknow tends to get about five to ten seats in Madhya Pradesh too. As such, while the Samajwadi Party (SP) had 7 seats in 2003 polls, they dropped to a single seat five years down the line as the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) grew from two to seven. As such, the SP is expected to do well in comparison with its rival in the areas adjoining Uttar Pradesh. CM Akhilesh is said to be particularly focusing on two regions - Chambal and Bundelkhand and is hoping to snatch about 15 seats from here. The party to look out for will be the Gondwana Ganatantra Party (GPP). Established in 1991, the GPP aims to create a separate state of Gondwana in Central India to support the cause if the Gondli people. It presently has a single seat in the state assembly. The regional outfit has decided to join hands with the the JD(U). Several rebels from the BJP and the Congress have also joined it. It is likely that the GPP may get up to 5 seats this time around. The Left Front will field candidates from 33 constituencies in the state.

For more on the Madhya Pradesh Elections 2013, click here (Link)

SHIV-RAJ IN MP? - PART IV

MADHYA PRADESH 2013: THE ISSUES THAT MATTER

DEVELOPMENT

Nobody can deny the fact that Madhya Pradesh, a state that has lagged behind others in terms of development has made some worth while progress under the leadership of Shivraj Singh Chauhan in the last eight years. When he ascended the chair way back in late 2005, he was not a well known face in local politics. Besides, he was facing the wrath of his bete noire Uma Bharati - the firebrand leader who, after being sidelined for openly taking on the top leadership, launched her own outfit. In a bid to counter the challenges facing him and to bolster his personal image, Chauhan launched two populist schemes - free TV sets and rice at one rupee per kilo which were mass hits. Then came the numerous welfare schemes, many of which got praises even from his harshest critics. These include the Ladli Lakshmi Scheme, the state government buys NSC worth Rs 30,000 over a period of five years after the birth of a girl child. While the parents get some fixed amount at the end of a certain time periods, they girl may get up to Rs 1 lakh after she turns 21 years old. The Kanyadhan Yojna gives Rs 7,500 to poor families during their daughter's wedding whereas the Janani Suraksha Yojna provides all assistance to pregnant mothers till child birth. Data available shows that the implementation of these schemes have benefited thousands of people so far.

Traditionally classified as a BIMARU state, there is no doubt that Madhya Pradesh has improved under the tenure of Chauhan. During the days of Digvijay Singh, the conditions of the roads in several regions of MP was pathetic to say the least. On the contrary, the incumbent CM has added over 90,000 km of roads in the last eight years - one of his biggest USPs. Of course, there is a lot of scope for improvement even now. Another issue on which he has delivered is power generation. Ever since he took over, the state's power production has grown by 10,000 MW. While water supply remains a concern in several parts, the situation has improved to some extent. Agriculture has received an impetus, especially in the Vindhya region with the construction of two key projects - Banasagar and Gulab Sagar. Wheat production has grown manifolds, and MP is today, the third highest producer of this crop, trailing Punjab and Haryana. At the same time, several IT companies have decided to open their branches in an IT Park in Indore after the CM promised to offer them certain concessions besides reducing bureaucratic hassles. Though several scandals have rocked his government at regular intervals, Shivraj is perceived by the electorate as a non-corrupt leader who has delivered as far as bijli, sadak aur paani is concerned.

ANTI-INCUMBENCY

While the BJP believes that it will comfortably cross the 116 mark for the third time, history seems to suggest otherwise. Ever since the state was placed under President's Rule in 1993, there has been a change in regime after every ten years in Bhopal. Diggi Raja occupied the CM's chair between 1993 to 2003 and the saffron party has ruled since then. As such, it will hardly be surprising if the masses give the Congress another shot, especially after it projected a new and a more credible face. Besides, for all the talks of development that has taken place here under Chauhan, the results are still only satisfactory. While road network has expanded, several villages continue to be inaccessible; water scarcity continues to be a major problem especially in the rural hinterland; the murder of environmental activist Shehla Masood and the failure to check the illegal activities of the sand mafia have put a big question mark on the intentions of the administration. Opinion polls suggest that the general conception amongst the farmers is that the incumbent government could have done a lot more to help them. In spite of all the schemes launched to provide women empowerment, Madhya Pradesh has recorded the highest cases of rapes against women. This is certainly a big embarrassment for Shivraj.

Another problem for the ruling party is that names of several of its ministers have figured either in corruption scandals or courted controversies of some sort. The CM's wife Sadhna Singh has been accused by the Opposition of buying four dumpers by specifying a fake residential address and then lending it to a cement company. The sodomy case involving former Finance Minister Raghavji, just few days prior to the polls is a big blow. Though the Vidisha strongman has been expelled, the damage seems to be done. Kailash Vijaywargiya who is in-charge of Industries has courted trouble time and again including when he defended the controversial God man Asaram Babu. Bhopal MLA Dhruvanarayan Singh's name figured in the Shehla Massod murder case. Other prominent leaders in this notorious list includes former CM Babulal Gaur, Animal Husbandry Minister Ajay Vishnoi, Medical Education Minister Anup Mishra and Education Minister Archana Chitnis. Twenty eight out of the 143 BJP MLAs have criminal cases pending against them. However, the Congress cannot claim the moral high ground here since 21 of its own men are tainted.

REBELLION

The factor that could take the victory away from the BJP is rebellion and defection amongst its ranks. In a bid to counter anti-incumbency, the party was forced into taking some tough decisions which may boomerang on it. Several sitting MLAs, including few cabinet ministers have been denied tickets. On the other hand, protests were staged by the cadre against the official party nominees in many places. While some of these dissidents are likely to contest as independents, many may join the Congress or smaller parties. Either way, it is Chauhan who will be hurt. In Ratlam constituency, party workers who were unhappy with the nomination of Chetan Kashyap marched to the house of former state Home Minister Himmat Kothari and convinced him to contest as an independent. Realizing that its 'bad' choices could be the deciding factor in the upcoming polls, the saffron outfit is trying hard to woo back the rebels. It was believed that former minister Raghavji who was shown the door few months ago was lobbying for a ticket for his daughter. As his demand was not met, it was speculated that he would rebel and hurt the BJP in at least five seats in the Vidisha region. However, after a behind the doors meeting with Sushma Swaraj, the veteran leader is said to be keeping a low profile. Meanwhile, Shivraj Chauhan has filed his nomination from Vidisha too.

In the Congress camp too, reports of dissidence have emerged. Vice President of the state committee Manak Aggarwal resigned from his post after he was denied a ticket from Hoshangabad. He has accused senior party leader Suresh Pachouri of conniving with the sand mafia to scuttle his chances. Ajay Singh - the Leader of Opposition in the out going legislature was believed to be upset with  Scindia & Kamal Nath faction for ignoring him while deciding party nominees in his home town. Naresh Malviya, another Congressman committed suicide after being denied a nomination from Agar. In Silwani, workers went on a rampage after Devendra Patel - a sitting MLA from the BJP who defected to the Congress was given a ticket. In the early days of the campaign it was believed that the two clans in the MP Congress - one led by the former CM Digvijay Singh and the other under young Jyothiraditya Scindia were fighting over the ticket allocation to their supporters.Luckily for them, it seems that the INC leaders here have realized that the only way to beat the Chauhan regime here is to be united. Just on the eve of the elections, it has been reported that all prominent state leaders were consulted before the final list of candidates was made public.

For more on the Madhya Pradesh Elections 2013, click here (Link)

SHIV-RAJ IN MP? - PART III

MADHYA PRADESH 2013: THE ISSUES THAT MATTER

LEADERSHIP DEBATE

Riding on his charisma, the BJP is trying to make the upcoming polls a straight contest between their Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan and the Congress. In fact, this makes a lot of sense for the ruling party, considering the fact that the Opposition is split in two distinct sections. A soft spoken leader who is identified as the man who ushered in some sort of development in a relatively 'backward' state in his eight year long term, Chauhan enjoys immense popularity amongst the masses. His welfare schemes targeting the women and the poor have made him extremely popular and the saffron brigade is hoping that he can win a third straight term for them. Opinion polls carried out by several organizations have shown that the CM's ratings are quite high considering the fact that he has been in power for eight years. However, the reality on the ground is that as the polling date comes closer, the fight is getting too close to call. Large number of rebels in the fray could just do the damage that the Congress has not been able to do on its own. As such, apart from his constituency of Budhni, Chauhan has filed his papers from Vidisha - a move to cut down the influence of former Finance Minister Raghavji who is the sitting MLA from here. It was reported that Raghavji was hoping that the party would nominate his daughter from here.

Keen to project a fresh face to take on the heavy weight Chauhan, the Congress named Union Minister Jyothiraditya Scindia as the head of campaign in Madhya Pradesh. Representing the Guna constituency, the clean image of the young leader and the good will earned by his his late father, the much beloved Madhavrao Scindia who died in a tragic plane crash in 2001 has worked in his favor. However, in the run up to the polls, media reports coming from the Congress camp indicated that two distinct factions had emerged with each trying to out do the other in the race to get tickets for their supporters. Jyothiraditya and his colleague Kamal Nath had ganged up against former CM Digvijay Singh and his loyalist - Ajay Singh and Kantilal Bhuria. Luckily for the Opposition, it seems that the Scindia scion and former royal of Raghogarh have mended their fences in the last after the intervention of the Gandhis. Off late, the INC is making inroads in Chambal and Baghelkhand regions where it is expected to do well. The general perception is that the Congress would have decimated the ruling party had the Gwalior scion been named as its CM candidate bout an year back. However is it too little, too late? Well, only time will tell. 

MODI vs RAHUL - THE LITMUS PAPER TEST 

While it is true that state elections are fought primarily on local issues, the impact that the upcoming assembly polls will have on the General Elections in 2014 cannot be entirely ruled out. Poll pundist and political observers have dubbed these polls as the semi-finals before the clash of the titans in next May. There are two factors that make Madhya Pradesh extremely important in this context. Firstly, it is one of the few states that sees a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress - the two major parties in the Indian political scene. The Left Front and its allies in the much hyped Third Front have no support base here what so ever. Secondly, the state sends 29 MPs to the Lower House of the Parliament and a spectacular win here will give the victor a head start over the other in the big battle seven months down the line. The last General Elections was a close fight with the BJP winning 16 seats whereas the INC took home 12 as the BSP registered victory in one constituency.

Narendra Modi - the BJP's PM nominee addressed a rally in Bhopal on 25^th September titled the 'Karyakarta Mahakumbh' which some claim to be is the biggest political congregation of its kind in the world where he heaped praises on the performance of the Chauhan regime. The Jhansi leg of his 'Vijay Shankhand' tour of the neighboring Uttar Pradesh also drew large crowds from adjoining districts of MP due to its geographical proximity. The Gujarat CM is expected to campaign here from 18^th November to 22^nd November. On similar lines, Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi kick started his Madhya Pradesh campaign with the 'Satta Parivartan' rally in Sagar where he tore into the state government for failing on parameters like poverty, hunger and rural health while ignoring the region of Bagelkhand. This was later followed by another big gathering at Indore on the same day where he promised to make the city the economic hub of the state if voted to power. With both the PM nominees battling it out in the heart of India, the results here will be a good opportunity for both the BJP and the Congress to asses their preparedness before May 2014.

For more on the Madhya Pradesh Elections 2013, click here (Link)

SHIV-RAJ IN MP? - PART II

MADHYA PRADESH 2013: CAN THE BJP CLAIM A HAT TRICK?

If the Opinion polls across all channels are to be believed then Madhya Pradesh CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan is leading his party to a historic third consecutive term in the state assembly polls in November 2013. The saffron outfit has been in power in the state since 2003, when the dynamic Hindutva icon, the firebrand Uma Bharati routed the Congress under Digvijay Singh as the BJP won nearly seventy five per cent of the seats. However a year later, after an arrest warrant was issued for her role in the Hubli riot case, she was asked to resign and was replaced by her Home Minister Babulal Gaur. In 2005, Gaur was himself replaced by Shivraj, whose name has become synonymous with the party in much of the state. For all those who accused him of reaping the benefits of the hard work put in by Bharati, Chauhan won a second straight victory here in 2008 despite of Bharati's rebellion. In fact, at one point of time, his name was even being considered in party circles for the job of BJP's Prime Minister nominee in an attempt to prevent the splitting of the NDA on the candidature of Narendra Modi. Although he may have lost the race to lead the BJP's coalition at the Center to his more flamboyant counterpart from Gujarat, the incumbent Chief Minister is ready in the battle for Bhopal. 

Like so many of the leaders in the Opposition today, Shivraj's foray into politics began with the underground movement against the Emergency in 1977. A four time MP from Vidisha, his entry into state politics began in the 2003 assembly polls where he was pitted against Congress heavyweight and the sitting CM Diggi Raja from his stronghold of Raghogarh. Though Uma led BJP won a splendid victory; though Chauhan himself lost the polls, his courageous step had won him many admirers, especially in the party high command. After Bharati resigned in 2004, Gaur was made the CM, a stop gap arrangement to keep various factions happy. Serving as the BJP President back then, he was chosen for the top job in spite of him not being on good terms with Bharati. Nonetheless, the soft spoken Shivraj built up his image, primarily on the development work carried by him and managed to see off the rebellion of his bete noire. And then came the biggest moment of his political career in 2008 when he scripted a historic win for his party, winning about 140 seats. This victory enhanced his reputation beyond Bhopal and as the leadership debate heated up in the saffron outfit ahead of the 2014 Lok Sabha, his name was being considered because of his clean image. Although the tough talking Gujarat CM Narendra Modi took away the cake, Chauhan will certainly not mind as long as he is at the helm of affairs in Bhopal.

There are several reasons that have contributed to the spectacular rise of the incumbent CM in the last eight years. A not so well known face in political circles prior to 2005, his development schemes aimed specially at women and the poorer sections of the society have been a mass hit. In a state that has seen very little worth while development over the years, Shivraj is looked upon as a leader who delivers on his promise. Unlike the Lalus and the Mulayums who have a support base amongst certain sections of the society, Chauhan's popularity has transcended such barriers. In fact, if the BJP comes to power here again in 2013, it will largely be due to the popularity of their leader. Another feather in his cap has been the manner in which he nullified the influence of Uma Bharati within such a small span of time. After the appointment of Shivraj, a furious Uma walked out of the BJP and founded a new party - the Bharatiya Janshakti Party. Although there were speculation that several MLAs would join her endangering the government, Chauhan managed to complete his term. And then in the next assembly polls, as the new outfit managed to get just five seats, Singh won a landslide. Three years later, by the time that the sanyasi returned back to the BJP in 2011, Chauhan had become one of the most popular faces of the party in the Hindi heartland.

For the BJP which was supposed to sweep MP according to all Opinion polls till some time back, the task seem be getting difficult by the day. The appointment of the junior Scindia as its campaign chief here is helping the Congress. Jyotiraditya's image as a youth leader and the goodwill of father - the late Madhavrao Scindia who are working in his favor. The internal feud between the two distinct camps within the party - the Jyotiraditya & Kamal Nath camp and the Digvijay Singh led group has been put on the back burner after intervention of the Gandhis. Reports now suggest that tickets are being distributed taking all the top leaders into account to prevent rebellion as far as possible. On the other hand the case of sexual assault against the former Finance Minister Raghavji who has been lately expelled from the party; the perception of the regime going soft on Asaram Bapu accused of raping a minor; the callousness of the administration that led to Ratangarh Mata Temple stampede that left 115 people dead and rising cases of atrocities against women are likely to hurt the BJP badly. What would go against the party though is the large number of rebels in the fray who are expected to dent its prospects across several seats. In a bid to combat anti-incumbency, many serving MLAs, including a few ministers have been denied ticket and they look determined to make a point by indulging in anti-party activities.

Knowing that anti-incumbency will be a factor, especially since the BJP has been in power here for two consecutive terms, the party has been pretty strict in selecting its candidates. The state BJP President Narendra Kumar Tomar and Organization head Arvind Menon, both of whom are said to be close to the CM are helping him in this arduous task. Amongst the heavy weights, Shivraj Singh Chauhan will seek re-election from Budni apart from sentering the fray in Vidisha, a move seen to cut the influence of Raghoji. Former CM and the Urban Minister in the state cabinet Gaur will file nominations from Govindpur. Prominent minister who have managed to make the cut include Home Minister Uma Shankar Gupta (Bhopal - South West), Industries Minister Kailash Vijaywagiya (Mhow) and Health Minister Dr. Narottam Mishra (Datia). To make sure that it maximizes its numbers, three serving MPs namely Yashodhara Raje Scindia, Bhupendra Singh and K D Deshmukh have been asked to contest from Shivpuri, Khurai and Khatangi. Taking a cue from the Congress, BJP too has fielded kin of several leaders including Uma Bharati's nephew Rahul Singh (Kharagpur), the sons of former CMs Sunderlal Patwa and Kailash Joshi and Anup Mishra - the nephew of former PM Vajpayee. Former Memebr of Parliament and Muslim face Arif Beg has been allocated a ticket from Bhopal - North. Several sitting MLAs who have been denied tickets are expected to contest independently or join rival outfits in the coming days.

For more on the Madhya Pradesh Elections 2013, click here (Link)

SHIV-RAJ IN MP? - PART I

MADHYA PRADESH 2013: CONGRESS - A DIVIDED HOUSE

Dubbed as the 'Heart' of Incredible India, the mega state of Madhya Pradesh will go to the polls on 25^th November later this year. Like in neighboring Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, what makes the elections here extremely important, especially ahead of the big 2014 General elections is that it will witness a direct fight between the ruling BJP and the opposition Congress. While the saffron brigade has been in power in the state for the last decade, the INC is heading a coalition regime at the Center for two consecutive terms. With BJP's Prime Ministerial nominee Narendra Modi and Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi addressing massive rallies here, it can be concluded that the 2013 state elections are been increasingly seen as the semi final just ahead of the Lok Sabha polls which is scheduled for next May. The pundits have given a clear edge to the incumbent CM, predicting that the party may replicate here the success that it saw in Gujarat riding on the popularity of Shivraj Singh Chauhan. However, by putting the dynamic and young Jyotiraditya Scindia in charge of its campaign in the state, the Congress is fighting back and may well pull off the biggest upset of 2013.

While the BJP claims that the development carried by the incumbent government will ensure its victory, what is making life easier for Chauhan is the lack of unity in the Congress camp. Although the party high command - the highest authority in the party has deputed Jyotiraditya Scindia - the son of the former Union Minister and Scindia scion Madhavrao to lead its battle, the feud amongst the prominent leaders of the state has not yet ended and could jeopardize the process of ticket distribution. Ahead of the polls, the Congress has split into two distinct groups, with each trying to out do the other, often resulting in the washing of dirty linen in public. Scindia is said to have teamed up with Union Minister Kamal Nath who is coordinating the campaign. On the other hand, Digvijay Singh - the Rakhi Sawant of Indian politics, who is serving a self imposed 10 year exile from the state after his rout at the hands of Uma Bharati in 2003 is also flexing his muscles, using state party President Kantilal Bhuria and the Leader of Opposition in the incumbent assembly - Ajay Singh as his proxies.

The fighting has become so bitter that it was reported that Diggi Raja was not allowed to attend a press conference being addressed by Scindia. Kantilal Bhuria is said to have had an audience with Sonia Gandhi after his advise over the selection of candidates in his home town of Jhabua was completely ignored. Die hard fans of the INC will point out that INC has never has faced similar situations in the past in other states. In fact, on the eve of the Uttarkhand polls held last year, the party was divided into over five groups, each headed by a Chief Ministerial hopeful. Considering the allegations of corruption against several BJP leaders, most notably the former CM Pokriyal, the Congress messed up the whole thing big time and managed to win just by a single seat in an election which it was speculated to sweep. However the scenario in MP is drastically different. The BJP here is in solid form and reports on the ground indicate that the charisma of Chauhan who was once being touted as the party's contender for the top job in 2014 is working in its favor.

Meanwhile the decision to appoint Scindia junior at the helm of affairs by passing veterans like Bhuria and long time MLA Ajay Singh seems to be a calculated risk. Jyotiraditya's father Madhavrao Scindia who died in a tragic air incident in 2001 was one of the most influential political leader from 1981 until his death besides being the titular chief of the erstwhile princely state of Gwalior. Besides his father's legacy, the party is hoping that his image as a youth leader will be a hit amongst the over 50 lakh young voters. With unemployment remaining high and MP still trailing behind in key areas like development, the youth vote might be the game changer for the Congress. The first list of candidates released last week includes a mix of sitting MLAs, prominent leaders from Youth Congress and finally, in continuation of the party's tradition, kin of several party veterans. Prominent candidates include Ajay Singh (Churat), his deputy in the state legislature Bisahulal Singh (Annupur), Satyadev Katare (Ater), Narayan Tripathi (Maihar), Ravi Joshi (Khargone), Bala Bachchan (Rajpur) and Surajbhan Singh Solanki (Harsud). Digvijay's son Jai Vardhan has filed his papers from Raghogarh without waiting for the Congress to name him. The party is also likely to benefit from large number of BJP rebels who are expected to hurt the saffron outfit's chances.

For more on the Madhya Pradesh Elections 2013, click here (Link)

THE STATES THAT MATTER: NOV-DEC 2013

THE DRESS-REHEARSAL BEFORE THE GENERAL ELECTIONS

The State elections - November/December 2014

As a politically eventful year nears its end, five states will go to the polls in November-December 2013, most of these seeing a straight fight between the two major parties in the country - the Congress and the BJP. On the eve of the impending battle in 2014, the upcoming elections are an excellent opportunity for the ruling UPA (United Progressive Alliance) to asses the performance of the central government in the last decade of its rule or as its detractors say, its misrule. Though anti-incumbency is on a all time high and the ratings of the PM and his party are falling at a rather alarming rate, the INC is putting its 'best foot' forward with Vice President Rahul Gandhi talking on issues that affect the aam admi like his mother's deteriorating health, the assassination of his father and grand mother in spite of their 'great' contribution towards the country and the startling claim of ISI's role in instigating violence in Muzzaffarabad. I must say that Baba is quite courageous; to go on the big stage and talk 'nonsense' in front of thousands of people hit by poverty, price rise and unemployment is no mean feat.

For the principal Opposition - the BJP, their prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is on a blitzkrieg, addressing rallies in these states, asking people to support his outfit while personally targeting the Prime Minister. While conveniently forgetting his administrative failure during the 2002 Godhra riots - the primary reason for the fall of the Vajpayee regime way back in 2004, he is being portrayed by the right wing as a 'Super Hero' who will rid India of all the problems that plague her. In a country which traditionally draws its strength from cultural, religious, regional and linguistic diversity, a 'divisive' leader like NaMo is a complete misfit. Needless to say, in a democracy like where its only the numbers that count, who actually cares about morals after all? And the BJP is no exception. Thankfully for the people, none of the constituents of the much hyped Third Front have any significant presence here. Although the General elections may be just about seven months away, we also need to realize that state elections are to a large extent fought on local issues and a great performance here may not be easy to replicate at the Center in the days to come. Nonetheless, a good show will for sure, boost the morale in the victor's camp.

In Delhi, Sheila Dixit will lead the charge for the Congress as she battles for a forth consecutive term. Although there seems to be wide spread dissatisfaction about her government, she still continues to be quite popular amongst the masses, something that her party is hoping will work in their favor. In spite of her personal image, the furor over the Delhi Common Wealth Games corruption scandal, the outrage following the Nirbhaya rape case and rising prices will make it extremely difficult for the Congress to cross the half way mark of 35 on its own. In fact, for the INC, winning this poll on its own will be like climbing the Everest without any oxygen cylinders. Meanwhile, the BJP should be credited for completely messing up the situation which till recently was heavily tilted on its side. The indecisiveness over its leadership here, something that we generally associate with the INC, has stolen the thunder off its campaign. The Aam Admi Party (AAP) born out of Anna Hazare movement's Lokpal movement is emerging as a serious contender as it is raking up the issues that affect the people of the capital. With Arvind Kejriwal training its gun over the two major national parties, the newly launched outfit may severely damage the prospects of both Sheila Dixit and Harsh Vardhan.

In Madhya Pradesh, CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan is relying on his work in the last seven years at the helm of affairs to win a third straight term in Bhopal for the BJP. I wonder whether not taing any strict action against the sand mafia here is also one of his many 'developmental' schemes. While trends seem to indicate that his party is likely to reach the magic mark of 115 quite comfortably, even though it may end up losing about 20 seats, the saffron brigade cannot be complacent and drop its guard. Hope the party remembers the disaster of 2004 when its complacency allowed the Congress to script a famous win. MP and young Turk Jyothiraditya Scindia, with his clean image and connectivity with the youth, is overlooking the elections for the Congress, which like its nemesis in Delhi seems to not have learnt any lessons from bitter experiences in the earlier elections. In neighboring Chattisgarh too, the charisma and the development work of Raman Singh is working for the BJP, in spite of the fact that parallel government of the Maoists is controlling several parts of the state. Unfortunately for the Congress, it lost most of its top brass in the ghastly Darbha attack and ever since has become directionless. Ajit Jogi, the former CM is its only hope in giving some competition to the BJP.

If media reports are to be believed, Vasundhara Raje Scindia is all set to return as the Chief Minister of Rajasthan for a second term, five years after losing power to Congress' Ashok Gelhot. Raje has done her homework well this time around, mending differences with other leaders in the state as well as those in Delhi. For the state government, fighting anti-incumbency that seems to be looming large, will be rather difficult. However, writing off a veteran like Gelhot can be a costly mistake. The last state to go to the polls is Mizoram in the North east where the Congress is presently in power. CM Lal Thanawla will face a potent threat from the Mizo National Front led by extremist turned politician Zoramathanga. As the fight for the five states intensifies in the coming days, expect fireworks, numerous allegations and counter allegations, many defections and several mammoth rallies to woo the voters. While local issues may ultimately decide the winners, there is no doubt they will impact the big general elections scheduled in May 2014 in more ways than one.

BATTLEGROUND KARNATAKA - PART 2

THE QUADRIPARTITE BATTLE FOR POWER

However, the problem plaguing the Congress is the plethora of Chief Ministerial candidates and the friction amongst them which has jeopardized the entire process of ticket distibution with each leader wanting their confidantes to be the official nominees of the party. Siddaramaiah, the leader of opposition in the outgoing assembly is the front runner in the race. Belonging to the 80 lakh strong Kuruba Gowda caste,

Rahul at a rally in Dharwad

he has considerable influence in the Old Mysore region and has served as the Deputy CM twice in the past. However,the biggest problem for him is that since he joined the INC after falling apart with his mentor Deve Gowda in 2008, many look upon him as an outsider and prefer a Gandhi-Nehru loyalist for the post. Enter Dr. G Parameshwar who was hand picked by Sonia Gandhi to head the KPCC in 2010. Being a multiple time MLA and a fresh face, he does enjoy the support of many insiders. 'Rebel star' and Kannada film star Ambareesh also nurtures ambitions to occupy the CM's chair. With the death of Dr. Rajkumar and Vishnu Vardhan, he is regarded by many as the tallest star in the Kannada film industry today. However, his brash temperament and limited influence in the Mysore region may go against him. S M Krishna, the former External Affairs minister who has served as the CM from 1999 to 2004, has lost much of his former charisma but is still quite popular, especially in the capital Bengaluru which was developed a lot under his tenure. In case, no consensus emerges, he may be called up as the 'please-all' candidate. Leaders from Hyderabad-Karnataka region like Union Labour Minister Malikarjuna Kharge and former CM Dharam Singh are the dark horses in the race for the throne.

The father-son duo of Deve Gowda and H D Kumaraswamy are working tirelessly to replicate in Karnataka what the Yadavs (Mulayum-Akhilesh) and the Badals (Parkash-Sukhbir) did in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab respectively. In his 20 month long stint as the CM, some of the initiatives launched by the junior Gowda were well received by the people. No one can deny that the withdrawal of support to the BSY government in 2008 by the JD(S) which was projected as a betrayal by the BJP won it sympathy votes. Not so surprisingly, the party dropped 31 seats to finish with just 28 in the last elections. Even in

The Gowdas

2009 Lok Sabha, the JD(S) could win only 3 seats. This time though, the mood is upbeat and the Gowdas are trying their best to woo the voters even beyond their traditional bastion of Southern Karnataka and its core vote bank - the Vokkaliggas and become a strong third alternative to the people of the state. The party manifesto has several sops to the farmers, weavers and fishermen. The 'Secular' party has promised funds for the development of minorities and effectively tackle corruption. By declaring its candidate list after the two national parties, it has accommodated several dissident leaders from these outfits. If the JD(S) manages to get over 60 seats and the Congress fails to get a simple majority, then it will emerge as a key player in the post poll scenario. Some reports suggest that, the Gowdas may not be averse to ally with the BJP if that is an option to come to power. Unlike the Congress, the JD(S) does not have an recognized faces apart from the Gowda duo. In fact, two of its other prominent faces - Siddaramaiah and late M P Prakash had quit in 2008 after they realized that the former PM would only support his own son as the next chief. While this prevents any infighting, the sad part for the party is that it is heavily reliant on the top two for campaigning.

Many believe that in 2013 assembly elections, Yeddyurappa is likely to emerge as the King-maker, all the more because of the four way contest that the state will witness. After being side-lined in the party that he had built in the state, the Lingayyat strongman joined the Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP) founded by Padmanabha Prasanna in November last year. Soon a string of loyalist, right from ministers in the government to corporators and  ordinary workers broke their association with the BJP and followed their leader into his new party. Yeddy's outfit has had a pretty good start as it managed to do fairly well in the local polls, managing to eat into the saffron outfit's vote share. By praising Sonia Gandhi before jumping to KJP, it is believed that he is keeping all his options open and might fill in the numbers in case the party falls short of the magic number. Though, he may vehemently deny it, allying with the BJP may not be difficult either. Thus, he is poised to become the game-changer in this elections in case of a hung assembly which is the most likely scenario if not for a Congress victory. However, allying with KJP may not be so easy. The long list of illegal land deals that he and his family members are accused of will hurt both the KJP and its future ally. Also, as the BJP leadership will tell, he is a tough nut to crack and will be difficult to deal with. One should not forget that besides DVS and Shettar, the KJP boss even had founder Prasanna thrown out of the party.

Yeddy knows that by leaving the BJP, he has taken the biggest gamble of his political career and a lot depends on the May 8 results. The Linggayyat leader who was known to given liberal grants to Mutts and seers during his tenure as the CM still has lots of friends in religious circles, all of whom are now

KJP supremo Yeddyurappa

asking their disciples to vote for him. Next, he is trying hard to get the support of the Muslim community which is traditional loyal to the Congress. Audacious as it may sound, Yedyurappa is asking the masses to vote for him and not the candidate. Even the manifesto is full of sops to appease all sections of the society, from women to farmers, from Christians whose churches were robbed in his tenure to the old. But the shrewd politician that he is, Yeddy knows that winning anything above 20 seats will not be easy. Four of his blue-eyed boys have ditched him, probably because they fear the influence that Shobha Karandalaje welds over the KJP chief. If the BJP manages to do the impossible and comes back to power and if the KJP gets less than 15 seats then he will have no option but to go back to his old party. In case, the Congress sweeps the polls, then Yeddy has to get over 20 seats to stay relevant. While a hung assembly will make him the most important politician in the state, any other result will hurt him in the long run. Finally, if he bags 30 odd seats in the new assembly, then he may well lead the Third Front in the 2014 general elections, something which he says is his aim.

Finally, there are several other smaller parties and a few national parties that have virtually no presence in the state that are contesting the elections. B Sriramalu who has floated his own party - the BSR Congress is expected to do well in Bellary region. With the Reddy brothers throwing their weight and money power behind him, the Nayaka leader is touring the state, hoping to grab as many seats as possible in his kitty. The Loksatta Party founded by former bureaucrat Jaiprakash Narayan, which has promised 'clean' politics is making its debut. Dalit leader and BSP supremo Mayawati has also addressed rallies in Northern Karnataka where she was quizzed by EC officials for carrying large sum of money with her. Besides, other national parties like the Samajwadi Party, Nationalist Congress Party, Communist Party of India (Marxist) and Janata Dal (United) have fielded their candidates in different parts of the state. The upcoming polls will be the most important in the history of Karnataka. While it is rich in natural resources and is the premiere IT destination of the country, the state has a long way to go as it continues to be plagued with frequent droughts, poverty and inequality. Apart from this, corruption has threatened to derail infrastructure development, especially in 'hi-tech city' Bengaluru. The people of Karnataka have to make the right choice so that the prestige of their state is restored.

Battleground Karnataka - Part 1 (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Rahul at a rally in Dharwad
Original: Rediff - Rahul turns 40 (Link)

(2) The Gowdas
Original: The Gowda merry go round (Link)

(3) KJP supremo Yeddyurappa
Original: Yeddyurappa.in (Link)

BATTLEGROUND KARNATAKA - PART 1

THE QUADRIPARTITE BATTLE FOR POWER

With the people from the north eastern states re-electing their incumbent governments to power, the round one of the 2013 assembly polls is over and the action has now shifted to Karnataka which is scheduled to go to the polls on 5 May. As this is the first big state on the line this year, the contest is heating up and the fight is expected to get uglier by the day. The results of the local elections held about two months ago in the various cities and towns across Karnataka indicates an anti-BJP

CM Jagdish Shettar will lead the BJP

wave which is primarily benefiting the principal Opposition party - the Congress. Sensing victory, the INC is trying to build on the advantage in its attempt to form a majority regime on its own without the need of any unholy alliances. On the contrary, the BJP which is hit by numerous corruption scandals and defection is trying hard to prevent desertion of top leaders and more importantly the voters to other outfits. JD(S) chief Kumarswamy who has topped a recent poll as the preferred Chief Ministerial candidate of the electorate is highlighting the failures of the national parties to deliver on their promises in the past while asking the masses to give him a second shot at the top post. With the pundits predicting a hung assembly, the new entrants in the fray - former CM Yeddyurappa's KJP and Bellary strongman Sriramalu's BSR Congress are hoping to emerge as the King-makers so that can make the next government dance to their whims and fancies. Whether the predictions come true or not, it seems as though the Karnataka elections will probably be the most closely contested polls of this year and the outcome here will certainly have a bearing on how the fight for the next Lok Sabha shapes up.

In 2008, as the BJP swept the state winning 110 of the 224 seats on the line, many of its well wishers hoped that its 'model government' here would help it expand in other southern states. Five years down the line, it seems as if the regime which saw as many as three different CMs besides innumerable scandals will arguably be a top contender for the tag of the worst government in the history of Karnataka. Soon after assuming power, the top leadership of the party launched the infamous 'Operation Kamal (Lotus)' hoping to increase its strength in the Vidhan Soudha, wherein opposing MLAs were convinced to resign and then contest on BJP ticket from their respective constituencies. Though the Congress had employed such a strategy in Goa after they managed to topple the then Parrikar government in 2005, the manner in which Yeddy & Co. went about with this experiment did raise suspicion about huge sums of money being used to influence sitting legislators. Few months down the line, with the powerful and unbelievably rich Reddy brothers coming under the scanner on allegation of illegal mining and exporting of iron ore, the BJP was caught in a catch 22 situation as sacking Janardhan Reddy would cause a vertical split in their ranks whereas not taking any action would make the party look like being soft on corruption thereby affecting its own campaign against scams perpetrated by the UPA government at the Centre. Though Yeddyurappa managed to avert this crisis, the Lokayukta report indicting him of making profits through illegal land deals in Bengaluru was indeed a major embarrassment, compounded by his flat refusal to resign from his post inspite of pressure from the top leadership including patriarch Lal Krishna Advani and his media spats with Justice Hegde.

Eventually, the Shikaripur MLA was arrested and jailed, thereby becoming the first CM in the history of the country to be put behind the bars. With the calls for his head growing louder by the day and no alternative left, BSY finally put down his papers and entrusted his beloved post to his trusted aide D V Sadanand Gowda, who was the state president during the BJP's spectacular victory in 2008. It is believed that Yeddy had propped up Sadanand Gowda, a Vokkaligga as he closely

Modi addresses a rally in Bengaluru

guarded his image as the top leader of the Lingayyat community - the largest caste in the state, which is his biggest USP. However, things soon turned sour between the two and the former threatened to pull down the government which he had himself headed in the past. To prevent dissident activities, the party bowed to his demands and brought another of his former lieutenant Jagdish Shettar - this time a Lingayat to power. Not so surprisingly, the two fell apart soon and BSY quit the party that he had so pain stackingly established in the state over a period spanning nearly four decades and joined the KJP. Several leaders including former minister Shobha Karandalaje followed him into the new party. Besides, the 'porngate scandal' wherein three legislators were seen watching sleaze inside the Legislative Assembly, the revolt of B Sriramalu and the subsequent rout in Bellary Rural by-elections, the court case involving the disqualification of 11 party rebels and five independent MLAs and the desecration of churches in South Kanara further added to the woes of the premiere BJP government south of the Vindhyas.

There were two reasons for saffron outfit's resounding win in 2008 - the Lingayyat community's backing of BSY and the money power of the Reddy brothers. This time around though, with both Yeddyurappa and Sriramalu out of the BJP, the party is taking several steps to improve its performance, especially after the setback in the local elections. Firstly, Pralhad Joshi - the Member of Parliament from Dharwad was named as the new state president which is seen as a move to strengthen its position in northern parts of the state where the KJP is giving it tough competition. Joshi who had led the agitation to hoist the national flag at the Idgah Maidan in Hubli has both, a clean image and Hindutva past and hence was chosen over the likes of DVS and Eshwarappa. Secondly, in a bold move, the party had made Jagdish Shettar its leader ahead of the polls, hoping to retain the Lingayyat vote bank that had rallied behind it in the past. By naming their chief ministerial candidate, the BJP has virtually removed all scope of infighting in its ranks and made ticket distribution process much easier, something which has made life difficult for the INC. Trying hard to wash away the taint of corruption and mis-administration, the party is trying to project that it has been cleansed after the departure of BSY and the Reddys. Besides, it has also done something that parties in India rarely do with president Rajnath Singh saying a sorry for the failure to provide a stable government in Karnataka in the last five years. While this apology may be too little too late, nonetheless it is a positive gesture. The state leadership has managed to convince Yeddy loyalists - Basvaraj Bommai, Umesh Katti, Murugesh Nirani and V Somanna to stay back giving a big blow to the KJP. The manifesto includes a host of freebies like subsidized rice for the poor and laptops for students of standard XII. Also, it has roped in star campaigner Narendra Modi to address rallies in Bengaluru, Belgaum and Mangalore which has attracted sizable crowds.

The Congress in Karnataka, on the other hand, finds itself in the ideal situation as most of the opinion polls predict it to emerge close to the majority mark if not cross it comfortably. With the incumbent regime paralyzed by one scandal after another, much like the UPA at the Centre, it looks like the elections are INC's to lose. 

Parameshwar (Left) and Siddaramiah (Right)

However, the party is not taking any chances, aware that if it cannot cross the 113 mark on its own, then it has to rely on untrustworthy allies like JD(S) with which it had a love-hate relationship in the past or 'tainted' Yeddyurappa's KJP. The Congress has launched the 'Corruption Saaku' campaign in the state, asking the masses to vote out the BJP. Ironically, this comes at a time when the government it heads at the Centre coming under sharp criticism for a host of scandals including 2G, CWG, Coal-gate, Chopper-gate, Vadra-DLF land deals and so on. In its manifesto, it has promised interest free loans to the farmers. Treading a cautious line, it has refused tickets to several legislators from the BJP who had quit ahead of the polls as it believes that it has to maintain a clean image to get the votes. The heir-apparent Rahul Gandhi in his campaign in the state has repeatedly taken digs at the saffron party for its failure on multiple issues affecting the common man.

Battleground Karnataka - Part 2 (Link)

IMAGES 

(1) CM Jagdish Shettar will lead the BJP
Original: NDTV - Jagdish Shettar retains key departments like finance and mines (Link)

(2) Modi addresses a rally in Bengaluru
Original: The Hindu - Modi goes all out against the Congress (Link)

(3) Parameshwar (Left) and Siddaramiah (Right)
Original: Deccan Chronicle - BJP: Crisis of Candidates (Link)

READING BETWEEN THE LINES

KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM ROUND ONE OF ASSEMBLY POLLS - 2013

Assembly Polls 2013: The Winners

With the three north eastern states that went to the polls in the early part of the year re-electing their incumbent Chief Ministers to power, the phase one of the state elections that will be held throughout 2013 came to an eventful end. While each of these had one clear winner, past experiences and a little common sense will tell us that there is certainly more to our politics than simply crossing the majority mark or forming the government. Political parties are trying hard to read between the lines, analyzing the verdict from various angles and finding issues that resonate with the people so as to chalk out effective strategies ahead of the upcoming Vidhan Soudha mandate in other states, while keeping the big daddy of them all - Lok Sabha 2014 firmly in focus. Though we cannot generalize the findings that have come out of Agartala, Shillong or Kohima with other parts of the country considering the maze that our Rajneeti is, some of the trends seen here will be of interest to both - the politicians as well as the analysts who closely track the electoral process and developments in the world's largest democracy. In my opinion, the biggest highlights which have come out of the recently concluded polls in the north eastern region are as follows:-

(1) High Voting Percentage - Jago re, Jago re, Jagooo re: Voting is certainly the most important right that the Constitution guarantees us. In the past though, we Indians have taken this privilege for granted, preferring to take the day off rather than waiting in queues in front of the election booths. However, ever since the turn of the new millennium, there has been a steady increase in

Courtesy: IBN Live

the voting percentage in most polls, right from the Panchayat level to General elections. Be it due to the sustained efforts of the Election Commission or because the electorate is becoming aware of its responsibilities, the participation of more people in these processes is a positive sign and will go a long way in strengthening our democratic credentials. In fact, electoral history was created this time around in Tripura as 93.57 percent of all registered voters cast the ballot - the highest ever since independent India's first elections in 1952. While the voting percentage in the other two states fell slightly as compared to the last assembly polls, the people in Meghalaya must be given credit for the manner in which they defied the bandh called by the extremist organization - the Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council and came out in such large numbers to make their opinions matter, reaffirming their faith in our democracy, in spite of all its flaws. Even in 2012, the polling percentage in all seven states was well above the national average. The high voter turnout is a clear indication of the fact that masses have realized every vote matters and by not voting they are helping undeserving candidates win.

(2) Anti-incumbency..... Whats that? In the years following the Emergency of 1977-78, anti-incumbency was probably, the most issue in Indian elections. In fact, except for the Left in its bastions of Bengal and Tripura, the BJP in Gujarat and the Congress in few of the north eastern provinces, fortunes of political parties in most states would change every five years. Though the BJP tried to suppress it by raising the 'feel good factor' slogan ahead of the 2004 Lok Sabha and ended up paying a heavy price, the UPA managed to win a second consecutive term. Likewise, Manik Sarkar's 'Mr Clean' image and the steps his government took to establish peace by combating extremism won him a straight forth term, saving the last fortress of the communists in the country. In Meghalaya, a state renowned for its 'Aaya Ram - Gaya Ram' politics, the vote was for stability as Mukul Roy took the Congress extremely close to the majority on its own. The numerous corruption allegations against the Rio government could not prevent the NPF from retaining power single-handedly as the Naga issue struck a chord with the electorate. Last year, while Parkash Singh Badal become the first CM in over four decades to be elected for two straight terms in Punjab, Gujarat CM Narendra Modi routed the Congress in his backyard. Meanwhile, Ikram Ibobi Singh won a third term for the INC in Manipur. The writing on the wall is clear. The public will not hesitate to vote for their sitting MLAs again, if and only if they either have an excellent report card at the end of their term or seem to have credibility to deliver on their issues that concern the aam admi. No wonder then that development, stability or even some regional sentiments can undo any damage that anti-incumbency can cause.

(3) The Left survives the lithmus test: Many analysts believed that the Tripura elections could well be the last nail in the coffin of the Communists in India if the grand coalition of the INC had managed to storm the Agartala assembly. In retrospection, one will realize that the political stars of the Red brigade took a downward turn since they pulled out support to the UPA in 2008 over the Indo-US nuclear deal. In the 2009 General elections, the Left dropped 35 seats to finish at a mere 24 and the Third Front failed

Courtesy: CPI(M)

to pose any challenge to the Congress led alliance, rendering it insignificant in the Parliament. In 2011, the Congress extracted revenge over their former buddies for the 2008 fiasco as it trounced the Marxists by four seats in a closely fought contest to win Kerala. The biggest shock though came from Bengal as Didi capitalized on the agitations in Singur and Nandigram to full fill her life long dream of coming to power in Kolkata. No wonder than that all eyes were on Tripura as three time CM Manik Sarkar led the Left Front in the battle for its last stronghold in the country. All thanks to in fighting amongst Congress leaders, the persona of Sarkar and the development work carried out by the previous regimes, the ruling alliance won a decisive victory, walking away with 50 of the 60 seats inspite of failing to deliver on issues like poverty and unemployment. While the mandate was more like an endorsement for the Sarkar government than for the Marxist ideology, the politiburo is hopeful that such an amazing performance will rejuvenate the cadre and boost its prospects in the 2014 so that it emerges as a key player on the national stage, once again.

(4) Mixed Bag for the Congress: With the Congress ruling over five of the eight north eastern states, the round one of the assembly polls 2013 was an excellent opportunity for the party to further make inroads into the region, especially because two of the states - Tripura and Nagaland which had been under its political rivals for a long time were up for grabs. With Baba's 'Mission 2014' in mind, the party got its entire top brass - the trioka of Manmohan Singh, Sonia and Rahul Gandhi to campaign here.

Courtesy: Shillong Times

However, it failed to do the ground work properly, something that the crown prince had stressed in his list of imperatives for revival. Deep rooted factionalism between leaders and faulty distribution of tickets were the prime reason for the pathetic performance of the INC and its allies in the Tripura polls. While it is true that nothing could bring down the Sarkar Raj in Agartala, the high command will certainly not be pleased by way things went for the party. Though failing to do well in Tripura is a cause of concern, there is no justification whatsoever for the disastrous numbers that the outfit got in Nagaland where it finished with just 8 seats. There is an urgent need for it to do some serious introspection so as to find out the reasons for its failure to even cross the two digit mark considering the various corruption scandals that the Rio government was embodied in. Nonetheless, Mukul Sangma emerged as the poster boy for the party as he prevented a white wash by almost winning Meghalaya on his own in spite of the various contenders in the fray. As the north eastern region which contributes a total of 25 seats to the Lok Sabha has largely been a stronghold of the Congress in the past, the party needs to make additional efforts to reach out to the people in a bid to address their concerns so as to strengthen its position prior to the big mandate.

(5) Another flop show for the BJP: After dropping the tainted Nitin Gadkari following a last minute coup by its top leaders in what has been seen as an effort to break free from the shackles of the RSS, the saffron outfit was hoping that the new President Rajnath Singh would steer it back to the top. Singh showed aggression, trying to mix the Hindutva agenda with development, hoping that its ideology will become more relevant to the youth while preserving its traditional vote bank. The most important part of this strategy was to expand the BJP beyond the Hindi heartland, taking it to hitherto unknown lands and make it a formidable power across the nation. As such, Singh took an active part in the campaign, visiting these poll bound states with other national leaders and even opening channels of communication with regional players. However, in spite of all the efforts that the former UP CM put in, the party managed to get just one seat which is embarrassing to say the least. The lone seat that it won out of the 11 it contested in Nagaland came from the Tijit constituency. Sadly, it even failed to open its account in Meghalaya and Tripura. The question staring the party is whether it can afford to think of ruling the country without a significant presence in several parts. The outfit which came into the national scene after the demolition of the Babri Masjid is virtually non-existent in Bengal, most of the north eastern states and down south. In Uttar Pradesh its influence has waned and in states like Bihar and Punjab, it plays second fiddle to other stronger partners. It is but clear that Rajnath needs to focus on building the BJP in these regions rather than simply going there just before elections or else it will never become a national party in true sense.

(6) Endgame Sangma? When Garo strongman Purno Sangma joined the National People's Party (NPP) after failing in his bid to become the thirteenth President of India, the conception, atleast in the media was that he would have a big impact on the election results in his home state of Meghalaya. The exodus of top leaders from his previous party - the NCP including his two sons into the NPP further strengthened this claim. However, the results were a shocker to Purno and his supporters. As the

Courtesy: Frontline

Congress under one Mukul Sangma inched close to majority on its own, the NPP had a disastrous debut with only two of its candidates making it to the legislative assembly, much lower than the 10 odd seats which the pundits had predicted. The Congress won 12 of the 25 seats in the Garo region - the home turf of the seasoned politician. This is significant because the NPP chief has represented this part of the country in the Lok Sabha on multiple occasions before his daughter Agatha was elected from here in 2009. Shockingly, his younger son Conrad who is a former state minister and Leader of Opposition was beaten by Clement Marak of the INC in Selsella constituency. The only consolation for the tribal leader was that his eldest son James won from Daddenggire. Many believe that the 2013 Meghalaya polls might well have sounded the end of the political career of P A Sangma, who arguably, is the most famous politician from the North east. However, it is too early to write off the NPP chief, specially because he has seen several storms (and parties of course) in his political career spanning over four decades. With the General elections just an year away, the senior Sangma will get one last opportunity to make a comeback. Meanwhile, his children - James, Conrad and Agatha are young and should work hard to live upto the legacy of their illustrious father. On the other hand, with his brother Zenith and wife Dikkanchi Shira also giving him company in the Megahalaya Vidhan Soudha, CM Mukul Sangma's family has emerged as the new first family of the state politics, atleast for the time being.

For more on the 2014 General Elections

(1) The Fall of the Triumvirate (Link)

(2) The Double Edged Sword (Link)

(3) An Ally in Need is an Ally Indeed (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Coutesy: IBN Live
Source: Northeast election; polling underway in Meghalaya, Nagaland; high turnout expected (Link)

(2) Coutesy: CPI(M) (Link)

(3) Coutesy: Shillong Times
Source: NCP locks horns with Mukul over subsidiary fiasco(Link)

(4) Coutesy: Frontline
Source: Assembly Elections: North eastern round (Link)