Showing posts with label NPP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NPP. Show all posts

October 18, 2015

THE SPOILSPORTS


The Bihar elections has been touted as a two horse race between the incumbent CM Nitish Kumar led 'Grand Alliance' on one side and the Narendra Modi led National Democratic Alliance on the other. With most Opinion Polls predicting a neck to neck contest between the two sides, parties are trying hard to retain their 'traditional' vote banks while hoping to break into those of their rivals. From the development card to caste based politics to evoking religious sentiments, outfits are using every issue under the sun to strike a chord with the electorate and win what is turning out to be the most important polls since the last General Elections. However, with the two coalitions grabbing all the headlines, it is easy to overlook the other smaller parties or formations in the fray; while they may not win many seats, they sure can emerge as 'spoilsports' in their strongholds and at the end tilt the results in the favour of one side. Here is a look at the 'not-so-famous' parties or alliances that could play a crucial role in Bihar 2015. 

The Third Front: A golden rule of Indian politics is that 'You should never mess with Mulayum Singh Yadav'; the wrestler turned former CM of Uttar Pradesh is not known to forgive his detractors so easily. The leaders of the Grand Alliance were made aware of this when the SP supremo not only walked out of the Nitish led front but joined hands with the Pappu Yadav's JAM to float a rival coalition that threatens to wean away some votes that would have otherwise gone to the ruling combination. 

The 'Socialist Secular Morcha' as it is being termed is targeting the powerful Muslim - Yadav vote bank which till about a decade ago was the primary support base of Lalu Yadav. There is no doubt that Samajwadi Party (SP) supremo Mulayum is the tallest Yadav leader in the country and he is expected to wield some influence in western parts of Bihar, mainly in the district bordering UP. Besides, the presence of Pappu Yadav's Jan Adikhar Morcha (JAM) will boost the alliance's chances, particularly in his stronghold of Madhepura. The JAM founder certainly has a point to prove; after being expelled out of the RJD, he would want to make Lalu pay for it. In fact, it is believed that several RJD and JD-U leaders who have been denied tickets by their parties are in talks with the controversial politician ahead of the polls. Former Union Minister Nagamani's Samras Samaj Party (SSP), former Lok Sabha Speaker P A Sangma's Nationalist People's Party (NPP) and former Jhanjharpur MP Devendra Prasad Yadav's Samajwadi Janata Dal - Democratic (SJD-D) too are a part of this combination. 

Of course, it has not been all smooth sailing for this alliance. One of its major constituent - the NCP walked out of the Front citing differences with the SP. Ironcially, NCP leader Tariq Anwar was being projected as the Morcha's CM candidate. 

Nationalist Congress Party: The Sharad Pawar led outfit has certainly made a fool of itself in the Bihar assembly elections. In the beginning it was a part of the Nitih led 'Maha ghatbandhan' but walked out of it after it was given just three seats instead of the 12 that it has asked for. Next, it entered into a pre-poll tie up with the SP and was allocated over 40 seats to contest as a constituent of the Third Front. However, days before the second round of voting, the party snapped all ties with the coalition, accusing Mulayum Singh of being hand in glove with the BJP.  

Kathiar MP and party's Muslim face Tariq Anwar speaking to the media said that his outfit will contest 45 seats alone. The NCP will be a strong contender in the six assembly segments of Kathiar district of Bihar and will again eat into the votes of the Nitish - Lalu alliance. The extent of the damage it causes to the 'secular' parties needs to be seen.

The Left Front: Six Communist parties too are fighting the Bihar polls with the aim of providing a 'viable' alternative to the people as per Communist Party of India (CPI) General Secretary Prakash Karat. The other constituents of the alliance include the CPI-ML, the CPM, the RSP, the Forward Block and the Socialist Union of Communist India - Communist (SUCI-C). The coalition is believed to have substantial base Bhojpur and Beguserai regions of the state but it will be crucial to see if this translates into seats.

All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen: It turns out that all the hullabaloo surrounding Owaisi's debut in Bihar turned out to be a dud. Though he had earlier announced plans of contesting on seats from four districts in the Seemanchal region of the state, in a statement made this past week, the AIMIM chief has said that his outfit will only contest from six assembly seats. This move should come as a big relief for the mega coalition since it was believed that Owaisi could end up splitting the Muslim vote which till sometime back was said to be firmly behind Nitish and Lalu.

Shiv Sena: A partner in the government headed by the BJP in Maharashra, the Uddhav Thackeray led outfit's entry into the fray is likely to affect the chances of some NDA candidates in Bihar. The saffron outfit which is regularly in the news for harassing Bihari migrants in Mumbai is hoping to capitalize on disgruntled BJP leaders to help it open its account in the northern state. Though even opening its account will be a big achievement for the Sena, it could play the spoiler for the NDA on some closely fought seats.

Bahujan Samajwadi Party: Though the Mayawati led party once had representatives in the Bihar state assembly, today the BSP's prospects look bleak. The party on its part is contesting all 243 seats but it will take more than a miracle to even win a single seat. As per the plan, the BSP is targeting the Dalit and women voters to do well in the polls.

Jharkhand Mukhti Morcha: The Shibu Soren led JMM has some support base in parts of southern Bihar with significant tribal populations. The former Jharkhand CM will be banking on these votes to spring a surprise and win a few segments.


P.S: Of late, I have not been regularly updating this blog. Apart from work, the other reason is that I have started a new blog - Raajaniti (Link) dedicated to Indian politics. Henceforth, I will put up posts on this topic on both these blogs. 

Also, I would request you to check out the new blog and please provide your valuable feedback.

April 13, 2014

MEGHALAYA & LOK SABHA 2014


WHO WILL WIN THE 'LAND OF CLOUDS'?


If the 2013 state election results are to go by, the Congress is all set to win the two seats in Meghalaya (Link). Early last year as the state went to polls, many were expecting that the NPP formed by former Lok Sabha Speaker P A Sangma after walking out of the NCP would significantly dent the INC's chances. However, the incumbent CM Mukul Sangma ensured that nothing of this sort would happen. Not only did the grand old party win, its tally grew from 25 to 29, just one short of a simple majority on its own. Sangma's former outfit the NCP as well as his new party - the NPP both were reduced to 2 seats each. In fact, other smaller outfits including the HSPDP and the UDP(M) did well comparatively. In fact, as many as 13 independents too made the cut. Against this back drop, the INC seems to be the front runner. However, can Sangma still make a come back. Lets see if we can find some answers.

ISSUES

(1) The political scenario in the state: With the state going to polls barely a year ago, the results of the 2013 elections are expected to have a tremendous bearing on this year's Lok Sabha polls too. Having come so close to forming the government on its own, the INC will be hoping to win the two seats. Although his party failed to do well on debut, writing off the nine time MP P A Sangma could prove to be a big mistake. With many regional players not contesting, the game seems to be different. The principal Opposition in the assembly - the UDP-M has put up one candidate whereas outfits like the Hill State People's Democratic Party (HSPDP) and the Garo National Council (GNC) have decided not to contest at all.

CONTENDERS

(1) Congress: The INC is confident that the performance of its CM Mukul Sangma will help it replicate the success of 1998. It has renominated former Union Minister Vincent H Pala from Shillong whereas it has fielded Daryl William Ch Momin against the NPP chief. The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) too has pledged its support to the INC

(2) National People's Party (NPP): The former Speaker in the Lower House of the Parliament Purno Agitok Sangma is seeking a tenth term from Tura. In the last polls, this seat was represented by his daughter Agatha Sangma who won on a NCP ticket and was also a junior minister in the UPA II cabinet for some time.

(3) United Democratic Party - Meghalaya (UDP-M): The principal opposition in the assembly the UDP-M has fielded its senior leader Paul Lyngdoh from Shillong.

PAST PERFORMANCES

Except for 1998 when it swept the state, the Congress has won a single seat in the other four of the last five Lok Sabha polls. Its partner in the UPA - the NCP won a seat in 2009 and a decade earlier in 1999. The TMC opened its account in 2004 when former Speaker P A Sangma won his parliamentary seat.

Political Party
2009
2004
1999
1998
1996
Congress
1
1
1
2
1
Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)
1
-
1
-
-
Trinamool Congres (TMC)
-
1
-
-
-
Independent
-
-
-
-
1

MY PREDICTIONS

I expect the ruling Congress which swept the state polls in 2013 to win one or even both the seats from here. Considering the fact the Sagma has already won from Tura multiple times. As such, one cannot rule out the fact that his NPP is a strong player.

Political Party
Expected Seats
1
Congress (INC)
1-2
2
National People's Party (NPP)
0-1

WATCH OUT

(1) End of the road for Sangma? He is perhaps the most well known political figure from the entire North-East. Over the last ten years that I have followed politics, PurnoaSangma has been in the news on various occasions. In 2004, he split from the NCP over its decision to ally with the Sonia Gandhi led Congress. The decision backfired as the INC led coalition surprisingly won the national elections held that year. Five years down the line, his daughter was inducted in the UPA II as a Minister of State. In 2012, he left the NCP again, this time in his bid to become the first tribal President of the country. He failed again and then formed the NPP. In the last state polls, the new party was virtually finished; his son and the Leader of Opposition in the previous assembly Conrad Sangma too had to bite the dust. As such, a lot will depend on his performance in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. A victory would see him make a strong come back whereas a defeat would pull the curtains on a glorious career.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

March 29, 2014

CHHATTISGARH & LOK SABHA 2014


CAN RAMAN SINGH WIN THE STATE FOR MODI?



In December 2013, the incumbent Chhattisgarh CM Ram Singh won a straight third term even as the BJP ended up with an impressive tally of 49 seats (Link). Six months down the line, as the country gears up for the Lok Sabha polls, many are predicting that the BJP will walk away with the majority of the seats from here. As I have written about it earlier, simply winning more seats than the Congress is not enough; for the 'Mission 272+' to succeed, the BJP has to sweep the state, something that it did in 2009 as well as 2004. Though the Congress bagged ten seats less then the saffron outfit in last year's elections, the difference in the vote share of the two parties was less than one percent. The bottom line is that in spite of scripting a famous victory, the results of the General polls in the state of Chhattisgarh is definitely not a forgone conclusion or a cakewalk for the BJP. However, with almost the whole of the grand old party's top brass in the state being killed in the Dharba Maoist attack, the question is whether it has the leaders who can help garner the votes.

ISSUES

Raman Singh's report card: After a third straight victory in the Chhattisgarh state polls, Dr Singh is on a high. Once a municipal councilor from Karwardha, he rose through the ranks to become the CM of the state after the BJP came to power in 2004. As such, he commands a lot of respect amongst the party workers. His Public Distribution Scheme which provides rice at a nominal rate of Rs. 2 per kg has been a big hit and has earned him the name of 'Chawal wale Baba'. Moreover, the use of technology to ensure the proper implementation of this scheme has been appreciated even by the Central regime. Besides, his image as a pro-development man and his impeccable 'secular' credentials have made him the longest serving amongst all the current BJP Chief Ministers in the country, behind Modi. The saffron campaign is likely to revolve around the work done by Dr Raman Singh in the past decade. To add to this, the large turnout at the BJP's PM nominee Narendra Modi's rallies here have further strengthened the party's prospects.

The UPA government's report card: While the saffron camp was able to overcome the anti-incumbency in Raipur, unfortunately for the Congress, it will indeed be an uphill tasks to undo the harm caused by the countless failures of the UPA II government in New Delhi. The Manmohan regime failed to deliver on two issues that have become the talking point of the nation - corruption and development. As if the myriad scams were not enough, the government's inefficiency in controlling price rise and inflation has not gone well with the common man. The BJP will use this as another weapon against the Congress which is already weak here.

Naxalism: If there is one front on which Dr Singh could have done more, in fact much more is regarding controlling the menace of armed Communists. The state continues to be infested with Maoists in spite of steps taken by both, the State and the Central governments. In one such attack in May 2013, most of the top brass of the INC in the state was wiped out. Apart from the Salva Jadum founder Mahendra Karma, the state president Nand Kumar Patel and former Union Minister V C Shukla were also gunned down in the tragic incident. In a bid to win sympathy votes, the party fielded the kin of several of its dead leaders in the state polls and two such candidates - Devati Karma (Dantewada) and Uday Patel (Kharasia) emerged victorious. In absence of strong local leaders to take on the BJP, the Congress may rake up this incident in the General Elections too.

CONTENDERS

(1) Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): After dominating the state politics for more than 10 years and winning the legislative assembly elections less than six months back, the BJP is in the driver's seat. Having dropped just one seat in 2013, Raman Singh is all set to lead the party's charge in Chhattisgarh and is expected to rout the Congress. The voices of dissident in the party against him too have stopped. Karuna Shukla, the niece of former PM Vajpayee has left the party whereas Rajya Sabha MP Nand Kumar Sai, another open critic of Singh has been keeping a low profile lately. The saffron camp which bagged 10 seats in the last Lok Sabha has retained six of its sitting MPs. The prominent ones include state party unit president Vishnu Dev Sai (Raigarh), national president of the party's Mahila Morcha Sushree Saroj Pandey (Durg), sitting MLA Vikram Usendi (Kanker) and the CM's son Abhisekh Singh (Rajnandgaon).

(2) Congress: The state's first CM and controversial leader Ajit Jogi will be leading the party in the state. Though he continues to yield considerable influence amongst the Scheduled Tribes and the Christians, he is also a divisive figure. During the last polls, there were allegations that he had informed the Maoists about the movement of other state leaders who were killed in the Dharba attack. Also, he is said to have ensured the defeat of some of his own party candidates, the ones who are not his loyalists during the state polls. Meanwhile, he has been fielded from Mahasamud, the parliamentary constituency he had won in 2004. Charandas Mahant the only Congress nominee to win the 2009 General Elections in the state and a Cabinet Minister will most likely be nominated from Korba whereas Karuna Shukla, the big catch for the INC will be contesting from Bilaspur.

Others: With the two national parties winning a total of 88 of the 90 seats in the state legislature, you can see why the smaller parties in the state have no chance of winning even a single seat. Of course, the AAP is an exception since it is making its debut here in 2014 and it remains to be seen how much of an impact it can make. The Aam Admi Party (AAP) has given tickets to folk artist Lakshman Masuriya (Mahasamund) and controversial tribal activist Soni Sori (Bastar) who has been accused of being linked to Maoists. With such strong contenders, do not be surprised if Kejriwal's outfit will win one seat. The Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) which had the third largest vote share and won a single seat in 2013 is not expected to open its account. Amongst the other local players are the National People's Party (NPP), the Gondwana Ganatantra Party (GPP), the Chhattisgarh Swabhiman Morcha (CSM), the Chhattisgarh Mukti Morcha (CMM), the JD(U) and the Left parties.

PAST PERFORMANCE

Formed during the NDA regime in 2001, the state of Chhattisgarh has been one of the strongholds of the BJP. While Ajit Jogi was the first CM of the state, the saffron outfit won a handsome victory in 2003 state elections under late Dileep Singh Judeo. However, after the former royal was allegedly caught on tape accepting a bribe, the party chose Dr Raman Singh for the top post. Having delivered on key parameters for 11 years in a row, the incumbent CM's popularity has been one of the biggest reasons for the BJP to do so well here. In fact, I like to call the post 2003 period in the state politics as the 'Raman Era'. Under him, the saffronists have swept the last two Lok Sabha polls here, winning 10 of the 11 parliamentary seats. On the other hand, the Congress has never been able to cross the 40 mark in the state assembly.

Political Party
2013 SE
2009 LE
2008 SE
2004 LE
2003 SE
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
49
10
50
10
50
Congress (INC)
39
1
38
1
37
Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP)
1
-
2
-
2
Others
1
-
-
-
1

(1) There are 90 seats in the Chhattisgarh legislative assembly.

(2) Chhattisgarh sends 11 MPs to the Parliament.

MY PREDICTIONS

The BJP is all set to win the majority of the seats here. However, winning 10 seats like in the previous two polls will be difficult. I expect the saffron outfit to win 8 to 10 seats. The Congress is likely to increase its tally to 2 seats. The AAP has a good chance of bagging one seat.

Political Party
Expected Seats
1
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
8-10
2
Congress (INC)
1-2
3
Aam Admi Party (AAP)
0-1


WATCH OUT

(1) Son-rise in Chhattisgarh: With the BJP giving a ticket to Abhisekh Singh, the son of the incumbent CM, it seems that another dynasty is begining to emerge in Indian politics. Dr Raman Singh enjoys immense popularity in Chhattisgarh and has helped the BJP dominate politics here for a long time. As such, it is not at all surprising that the party has decided to 'reward' him with this gesture. It will be interesting to see how the young Turk performs in the upcoming polls. A win will cement his place in politics and he might even be inducted in the Union cabinet, that is of course if the BJP comes to power in 2014.

(2) The future of Ajit Jogi: A lot is on the line for Ajit Jogi, the first CM of the state. After three straight loses, it is highly unlikely that he will ever occupy the top post, even if the INC comes to power. Although the party does not have any other leader of equal stature, his involvement in several controversies will prove a big hindrance to his political ascent anywhere in the near future. To stay relevant in politics, Jogi has to win the Mahasamund seat which will see a tough triangular contest this time around. Meanwhile, the wheel chair bound politician has already passed on the baton to his son Amit Jogi who is the serving MLA from Marwahi. Besides, his wife Renu Jogi too has won from the Kota assembly seat.

For more posts in this series:
(1) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

March 02, 2014

RAJASTHAN & LOK SABHA 2014


CAN THE BJP STORM THE DESERT STATE


The 2013 state elections, especially those held in the months of November and December have been a big morale booster for the BJP. Except for Delhi, it ended up forming the government in other three states, a huge achievement since it was facing anti-incumbency in at least two of these. The win in Madhya Pradesh was expected and the party was always believed to be holding an edge over its rivals in Chhattisgarh. However, it has been the victory in Rajasthan or the extent of the victory that surprised me the most. The saffron outfit under its Chief Ministerial candidate Vasundhara Raje Scindia won over 80 percent of the seats even as the Congress limped to a humiliating tally of 21, a decline of about eighty seats from the last polls in 2008. Remember in 2009 Lok Sabha polls, Rajasthan was swept by the Congress as it took home 20 of the 25 seats from the state. With the saffron party's figures plummeting to a lowly 4, the top brass asked Raje to take moral responsibility and kept out of the state politics. However, five years down the line she was brought back into the forefront and made the chief of BJP's electoral campaign. After successfully leading her party and scoring an amazing win over her arch rival Ashok Gehlot, the former royal is the new queen of the desert state.

ISSUES

(1) The Ripple effect of the 2013 elections: With the gap between the state elections and the 2014 General Elections being just a few months, the results of the local polls are expected to have a big effect on how the electorate votes while choosing the next Central government. The extent of BJP's victory in 2013 has been enormous; the very fact that it crossed the 150 mark quite comfortably indicates a massive wave in its favor. At a time when the masses want development, the previous Gehlot regime did not take any worthwhile measure in this direction during its tenure. Not so surprisingly, it was booted out. Meanwhile, Raje's Suraj Sankhalp Yatra helped her connect with the people on the ground. The saffron outfit wants to ride on the wave and wrest Rajasthan back from the Congress in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.

(2) The UPA II government's performance: The general perception is that the UPA II government in New Delhi has failed to deliver and the desert state is no exception. A plethora of corruption allegations including 2G, Commonwealth and Coalgate have tarnished the image of the incumbent regime at a time when the country was awakened by developments triggered after the fast by anti-graft crusader Anna Hazare in August 2011. The policy paralysis and economic slowdown has led to a general sense of unhappiness with the Singh government. One of the biggest failures of the Congress has been its inability to control inflation and the price rise has only made the matters worse.

(3) Modi at Centre and Raje in Jaipur: During the Madhya Pradesh state elections it was being speculated that there were some differences between Narendra Modi and Shivraj Singh Chauhan as both were once considered for the post of BJP's PM nominee for 2014. However, no such issues exist between the Gujarat strongman and Raje. In fact, during the polls she was more than happy to play second fiddle to him in election rallies they attended together. The combined popularity of both the leaders is expected to swing the balance heavily in BJP's favor. After Gujarat, Rajasthan is one state where Modi has a large fan base. On the other hand, after coming to power, Raje has looked drastically different from here earlier stint when she was labelled indifferent and haughty.

CONTENDERS

(1) BJP: The saffron outfit is in the driver's seat. After a spectacular performance in the state polls, the party is all set to score big in the General Elections too. The Rajasthan CM Vasundhara Raje Scindia however, is taking no chances. In spite of romping home to power, she is putting in all the efforts to maximize her party's poll prospects. She is trying to connect to the ordinary people by travelling in trains, a clear attempt at image makeover. The former royal who was known to lead a lavish life during her earlier tenure has to play a major role in case the BJP has to form the next government at the Centre.

(2) Congress: The INC in Rajasthan, as in many states in the Hindi heartland, is in a soup. After the drubbing it got in last state polls, the party seems to be headed for a rout in upcoming Lok Sabha elections from here. The priority of the Congress will be to cut down its loses as far as possible. Choosing the right candidates could well make the difference. At the same time, you can even expect the grand old party to refuse tickets to some of its sitting MPs and field new faces.

The Aam Admi Party (AAP) will make its electoral debut in the state in the upcoming General Election. The National People's Party (NPP) which fielded several dissidents from the national parties and won four seats in the assembly does have an outside chance to cause upsets though it may not win any seats. The Bahujan Smamajwadi Party and the National Unionist Zamindar Party (NUZP) have just pockets of influence but are most likely to finish with no seats. Amongst the parties that constitute the Third Front, the Samajwadi Party and the Janata Dal (United) are marginal players.

PAST PERFORMANCE

As it is evident from the below chart, Rajasthan is a swing state i.e. either of the two national parties sweeps the state, winning an overwhelming majority of the seats from the state. Between 1999 and 2007, the saffron outfit was the dominant player here. It did exceedingly well in 1999 General Elections and dislodged the Congress government from power in 2003. The very next year when the NDA faced a shock defeat, the desert state still elected 21 BJP representatives to the Parliament. Things started changing in 2008 when Gehlot extracted revenge from Scindia as the INC came to power in Jaipur. In the following year, the Congress won 20 of the 25 seats during the General Elections as it defied anti-incumbency to script a famous win. Now with the BJP winning with a thumping majority in the recently concluded assembly polls, people here are expecting the party to perform strongly in 2014 too.

Political Party
2013 SE
2009 GE
2008 SE
2004 GE
2003 SE
1999 GE
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
162
4
78
21
120
16
Congress
21
20
96
4
56
9
Others
17
1
26
-
24
-

(1) SE: State Elections (The Rajasthan state assembly has 200 seats.)
(2) GE: General Elections (Rajasthan sends 25 MPs to the Lower House of the Parliament.)


MY PREDICTIONS

In my opinion, the saffron brigade is all set to finish with a superb tally of around 20 seats. The Congress is heading to a massive defeat in the state and it will be an achievement if they can even cross five seats. The Aam Admi Party (AAP) may open its account in the state.

Political Party
Expected Seats
1
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
16-22
2
Congress
4-8
3
Aam Admi Party (AAP)
0-1

WATCH OUT

(1) The Battle for Jhunjhunu: The Aam Admi Party (AAP) has named former Lt General of Army Raj Kadyan as its candidate from Jhunjhunu constituency in North Western Rajasthan. After former Army Chief General V K Singh joined the BJP this week, there are speculations that he may be made to contest against Kadyan from here. Considering that Kadyan and Singh have had several bitter war of words in the past, the contest could gather momentum in the next few weeks. Besides, both ex-servicemen belong to the two dominant yet rival castes from the Shekawati region of the state - Singh is a Thakur whereas Kadyan belongs to the Jat community.

(2) Future of Ashok Gehlot: What will be the political future of former CM Ashok Gehlot? Born in 1951, he is still young by political standards. However, after the kind of beating that Congress party got, it remains to be seen if the Gandhis trust him with some important responsibility in the future. There was some buzz in political circle that Rahul Gandhi wanted to chose a new face to led the party prior to the 2013 polls. However, Gehlot still managed to convince the high command to retain him. After a utterly humiliating defeat, can he still make a comeback. well, that remains to be seen.

For more posts in this series:
(1) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

March 20, 2013

READING BETWEEN THE LINES

KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM ROUND ONE OF ASSEMBLY POLLS - 2013

Assembly Polls 2013: The Winners
With the three north eastern states that went to the polls in the early part of the year re-electing their incumbent Chief Ministers to power, the phase one of the state elections that will be held throughout 2013 came to an eventful end. While each of these had one clear winner, past experiences and a little common sense will tell us that there is certainly more to our politics than simply crossing the majority mark or forming the government. Political parties are trying hard to read between the lines, analyzing the verdict from various angles and finding issues that resonate with the people so as to chalk out effective strategies ahead of the upcoming Vidhan Soudha mandate in other states, while keeping the big daddy of them all - Lok Sabha 2014 firmly in focus. Though we cannot generalize the findings that have come out of Agartala, Shillong or Kohima with other parts of the country considering the maze that our Rajneeti is, some of the trends seen here will be of interest to both - the politicians as well as the analysts who closely track the electoral process and developments in the world's largest democracy. In my opinion, the biggest highlights which have come out of the recently concluded polls in the north eastern region are as follows:-

(1) High Voting Percentage - Jago re, Jago re, Jagooo re: Voting is certainly the most important right that the Constitution guarantees us. In the past though, we Indians have taken this privilege for granted, preferring to take the day off rather than waiting in queues in front of the election booths. However, ever since the turn of the new millennium, there has been a steady increase in

Courtesy: IBN Live
the voting percentage in most polls, right from the Panchayat level to General elections. Be it due to the sustained efforts of the Election Commission or because the electorate is becoming aware of its responsibilities, the participation of more people in these processes is a positive sign and will go a long way in strengthening our democratic credentials. In fact, electoral history was created this time around in Tripura as 93.57 percent of all registered voters cast the ballot - the highest ever since independent India's first elections in 1952. While the voting percentage in the other two states fell slightly as compared to the last assembly polls, the people in Meghalaya must be given credit for the manner in which they defied the bandh called by the extremist organization - the Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council and came out in such large numbers to make their opinions matter, reaffirming their faith in our democracy, in spite of all its flaws. Even in 2012, the polling percentage in all seven states was well above the national average. The high voter turnout is a clear indication of the fact that masses have realized every vote matters and by not voting they are helping undeserving candidates win.

(2) Anti-incumbency..... Whats that? In the years following the Emergency of 1977-78, anti-incumbency was probably, the most issue in Indian elections. In fact, except for the Left in its bastions of Bengal and Tripura, the BJP in Gujarat and the Congress in few of the north eastern provinces, fortunes of political parties in most states would change every five years. Though the BJP tried to suppress it by raising the 'feel good factor' slogan ahead of the 2004 Lok Sabha and ended up paying a heavy price, the UPA managed to win a second consecutive term. Likewise, Manik Sarkar's 'Mr Clean' image and the steps his government took to establish peace by combating extremism won him a straight forth term, saving the last fortress of the communists in the country. In Meghalaya, a state renowned for its 'Aaya Ram - Gaya Ram' politics, the vote was for stability as Mukul Roy took the Congress extremely close to the majority on its own. The numerous corruption allegations against the Rio government could not prevent the NPF from retaining power single-handedly as the Naga issue struck a chord with the electorate. Last year, while Parkash Singh Badal become the first CM in over four decades to be elected for two straight terms in Punjab, Gujarat CM Narendra Modi routed the Congress in his backyard. Meanwhile, Ikram Ibobi Singh won a third term for the INC in Manipur. The writing on the wall is clear. The public will not hesitate to vote for their sitting MLAs again, if and only if they either have an excellent report card at the end of their term or seem to have credibility to deliver on their issues that concern the aam admi. No wonder then that development, stability or even some regional sentiments can undo any damage that anti-incumbency can cause.

(3) The Left survives the lithmus test: Many analysts believed that the Tripura elections could well be the last nail in the coffin of the Communists in India if the grand coalition of the INC had managed to storm the Agartala assembly. In retrospection, one will realize that the political stars of the Red brigade took a downward turn since they pulled out support to the UPA in 2008 over the Indo-US nuclear deal. In the 2009 General elections, the Left dropped 35 seats to finish at a mere 24 and the Third Front failed
Courtesy: CPI(M)
to pose any challenge to the Congress led alliance, rendering it insignificant in the Parliament. In 2011, the Congress extracted revenge over their former buddies for the 2008 fiasco as it trounced the Marxists by four seats in a closely fought contest to win Kerala. The biggest shock though came from Bengal as Didi capitalized on the agitations in Singur and Nandigram to full fill her life long dream of coming to power in Kolkata. No wonder than that all eyes were on Tripura as three time CM Manik Sarkar led the Left Front in the battle for its last stronghold in the country. All thanks to in fighting amongst Congress leaders, the persona of Sarkar and the development work carried out by the previous regimes, the ruling alliance won a decisive victory, walking away with 50 of the 60 seats inspite of failing to deliver on issues like poverty and unemployment. While the mandate was more like an endorsement for the Sarkar government than for the Marxist ideology, the politiburo is hopeful that such an amazing performance will rejuvenate the cadre and boost its prospects in the 2014 so that it emerges as a key player on the national stage, once again.

(4) Mixed Bag for the Congress: With the Congress ruling over five of the eight north eastern states, the round one of the assembly polls 2013 was an excellent opportunity for the party to further make inroads into the region, especially because two of the states - Tripura and Nagaland which had been under its political rivals for a long time were up for grabs. With Baba's 'Mission 2014' in mind, the party got its entire top brass - the trioka of Manmohan Singh, Sonia and Rahul Gandhi to campaign here.
Courtesy: Shillong Times
However, it failed to do the ground work properly, something that the crown prince had stressed in his list of imperatives for revival. Deep rooted factionalism between leaders and faulty distribution of tickets were the prime reason for the pathetic performance of the INC and its allies in the Tripura polls. While it is true that nothing could bring down the Sarkar Raj in Agartala, the high command will certainly not be pleased by way things went for the party. Though failing to do well in Tripura is a cause of concern, there is no justification whatsoever for the disastrous numbers that the outfit got in Nagaland where it finished with just 8 seats. There is an urgent need for it to do some serious introspection so as to find out the reasons for its failure to even cross the two digit mark considering the various corruption scandals that the Rio government was embodied in. Nonetheless, Mukul Sangma emerged as the poster boy for the party as he prevented a white wash by almost winning Meghalaya on his own in spite of the various contenders in the fray. As the north eastern region which contributes a total of 25 seats to the Lok Sabha has largely been a stronghold of the Congress in the past, the party needs to make additional efforts to reach out to the people in a bid to address their concerns so as to strengthen its position prior to the big mandate.

(5) Another flop show for the BJP: After dropping the tainted Nitin Gadkari following a last minute coup by its top leaders in what has been seen as an effort to break free from the shackles of the RSS, the saffron outfit was hoping that the new President Rajnath Singh would steer it back to the top. Singh showed aggression, trying to mix the Hindutva agenda with development, hoping that its ideology will become more relevant to the youth while preserving its traditional vote bank. The most important part of this strategy was to expand the BJP beyond the Hindi heartland, taking it to hitherto unknown lands and make it a formidable power across the nation. As such, Singh took an active part in the campaign, visiting these poll bound states with other national leaders and even opening channels of communication with regional players. However, in spite of all the efforts that the former UP CM put in, the party managed to get just one seat which is embarrassing to say the least. The lone seat that it won out of the 11 it contested in Nagaland came from the Tijit constituency. Sadly, it even failed to open its account in Meghalaya and Tripura. The question staring the party is whether it can afford to think of ruling the country without a significant presence in several parts. The outfit which came into the national scene after the demolition of the Babri Masjid is virtually non-existent in Bengal, most of the north eastern states and down south. In Uttar Pradesh its influence has waned and in states like Bihar and Punjab, it plays second fiddle to other stronger partners. It is but clear that Rajnath needs to focus on building the BJP in these regions rather than simply going there just before elections or else it will never become a national party in true sense.

(6) Endgame Sangma? When Garo strongman Purno Sangma joined the National People's Party (NPP) after failing in his bid to become the thirteenth President of India, the conception, atleast in the media was that he would have a big impact on the election results in his home state of Meghalaya. The exodus of top leaders from his previous party - the NCP including his two sons into the NPP further strengthened this claim. However, the results were a shocker to Purno and his supporters. As the
Courtesy: Frontline
Congress under one Mukul Sangma inched close to majority on its own, the NPP had a disastrous debut with only two of its candidates making it to the legislative assembly, much lower than the 10 odd seats which the pundits had predicted. The Congress won 12 of the 25 seats in the Garo region - the home turf of the seasoned politician. This is significant because the NPP chief has represented this part of the country in the Lok Sabha on multiple occasions before his daughter Agatha was elected from here in 2009. Shockingly, his younger son Conrad who is a former state minister and Leader of Opposition was beaten by Clement Marak of the INC in Selsella constituency. The only consolation for the tribal leader was that his eldest son James won from Daddenggire. Many believe that the 2013 Meghalaya polls might well have sounded the end of the political career of P A Sangma, who arguably, is the most famous politician from the North east. However, it is too early to write off the NPP chief, specially because he has seen several storms (and parties of course) in his political career spanning over four decades. With the General elections just an year away, the senior Sangma will get one last opportunity to make a comeback. Meanwhile, his children - James, Conrad and Agatha are young and should work hard to live upto the legacy of their illustrious father. On the other hand, with his brother Zenith and wife Dikkanchi Shira also giving him company in the Megahalaya Vidhan Soudha, CM Mukul Sangma's family has emerged as the new first family of the state politics, atleast for the time being.


For more on the 2014 General Elections
(1) The Fall of the Triumvirate (Link)
(2) The Double Edged Sword (Link)
(3) An Ally in Need is an Ally Indeed (Link)



IMAGES

(1) Coutesy: IBN Live
Source: Northeast election; polling underway in Meghalaya, Nagaland; high turnout expected (Link)

(2) Coutesy: CPI(M) (Link)

(3) Coutesy: Shillong Times
Source: NCP locks horns with Mukul over subsidiary fiasco(Link)

(4) Coutesy: Frontline
Source: Assembly Elections: North eastern round (Link)

March 10, 2013

BATTLEGROUND MEGHALAYA

CONGRESS ON CLOUD NINE


Bordered by Assam in the north and Bangladesh in the south, Meghalaya - one of the Seven Sisters of India was one of the two states that went to the polls on February 23. On one hand, while it is one of the most beautiful places in the country, famous for its heavy downpour, dense forests,
Meghalaya 2013: The Contenders
spectacular waterfalls and most importantly, a vibrant tribal culture which is an amalgamation of the traditions and beliefs of the various communities found here, it is also the most 'politically volatile' state of the country, having seen a staggering 23 governments over a period spanning just four decades, besides innumerable instances of President's Rule. With instability being the order of the hour, infrastructural development has been painstakingly slow whereas poverty and unemployment has been on the rise. And insurgency which traces its root to the locals versus migrants problems has only aggravated the woes of the people. Even in the last elections, a fractured verdict was the prime reason for four different regimes, of which one survived just for 9 days. Considering the voting patterns of different region and communities within the state, the various political parties in the fray and the countless issues that they raised, there was nothing to indicate that any of the top contenders would cross the magic mark of 30 on their own to provide a solid government that could concentrate on solving the problems of the masses.

Dr Mukul Sangma, the incumbent Chief minister and MLA from Ampatigiri led the charge for the ruling Congress. Having assumed office in April 2010, he was confident that the 'good work' that he had done over the last three odd years were enough to take the party past the half way mark on its own after the United Democratic Party - a regional outfit and the second largest constituent of the ruling combine decided to call it quits. In fact, even when the NCP approached the ruling party for a pre poll alliance, he refused the offer, a bold move in the age of coalition politics. In a bid to strengthen the party's prospects ahead of the mandate, the INC took some strong decisions, dropping several sitting MLAs viewed as non-performers and roping in popular independents into its fold. Also, banking on the image of the CM, his wife Dikanchi Shira and brother Zenith Sangma were given tickets from Mahendraganj and Rangsakona respectively. Making its intentions of crossing the majority on its own, it fielded candidates in all 60 seats. In its manifesto, the party tried to beat anti-incumbency by playing the development card - promising to reduce poverty, generate more jobs for the youth and strive hard for the safety of women. Several populist schemes like affordable housing projects and an additional two cylinders at subsidized rates were also announced to protect its vote base in the wake of complete failure of the UPA to check price rise. Several top leaders including the trio of Manmohan, Sonia and Rahul were brought in to attract the crowds and so were INC leaders from Arunachal and Assam.

The United Democratic Party (UDP) which walked out of the Sangma government days before the election was hoping that the move to distance itself from the INC would help consolidate the anti-Congress votes in its favour, giving it an advantage over other regional players. Dr Donkupar Roy, a former CM was quite certain that they would bag 20 plus seats and emerge as the single largest party in the new assembly, gaining well over the 11 that they had won in 2008. With corruption becoming synonymous with the UPA all thanks to the several scams that have been unearthed in its second innings, the party had made fighting graft one of the most important points in its agenda. In its manifesto, the UDP had promised to set up an effective Lokayuta in Meghalaya, besides taking steps to reduce crimes against women which was on the rise. Other points mentioned included the demarcation of the international border, solving the decades old boundary dispute with Assam, generating more jobs in agriculture and allied sector, improving cleanliness and tackling the traffic menace in the capital. Prominent faces amongst the 57 candidates of the party were Bindo Lanong (East Shillong) and Paul Lyngdoh (West Shillong) , besides Dr Roy (Shella).

The state unit of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) which was dealt a crucial blow with the exit of stalwart Purno Sangma who resigned after the party refused to support his candidature for the Presidency received another jolt when the outgoing CM out rightly rejected their offer of an electoral alliance. With both sons of
The Battle for Garo Hills: NPP vs NCP
Purno deserting the party and his daughter and MP Agatha refusing to campaign for NCP candidates, Rajya Sabha MP Thomas Sangma was asked to resign and contest from North Tura constituency whereas state president Sanbor Shullai filed in his papers from South Shillong. Speaking to reporters during the release of their manifesto, Shullai had said that they would do well in the Garo hills inspite of some of its legislators jumping over to the newly launched NPP. Though he himself did not contest the elections, former CM and Lok Sabha Speaker P A Sangma who joined the National People's Party (NPP) after he lost out to Pranab Mukherjee in the race to the Raisina Hills campaigned heavily in his native Garo Hills for his sons - the former leader of Opposition in the state Conrad and his elder brother James. Even their sister Agatha who is presently with the NCP joined her father to help her brothers. Sangma stressed the need to wipe corruption from the state by appointing a Lokayukta, taking concrete steps to save the environment and promised to fight for reservation in Central government jobs for the people of North east. The outfit was hoping to piggy bank on the popularity of Purno in the west and emerge as a key player in the process of forming the next government. The two parties whose manifestos were pretty much alike, fielded 32 and 21 candidates respectively.

Meghalaya is home to many different tribes - the Garos, the Khasis, the Jaintias and the Bhois being the biggest. With each of these communities having varied aspirations and facing specific problems, many smaller regional parties have come up in the state over the years, each having a small yet significant vote bank. Apart from reiterating its demand for the creation of a separate Garo-Jaintia state, the Hill State People's Democratic Party (HSPDP) laid stress on issues like the influx of migrants, opposing the proposed extraction of uranium, separation of the joint Assam - Meghalaya cadre and improving road connectivity in the far flung areas. Supremo H S Lyngdoh also manged to get in the big fish - Nongkrem legislator Ardent Basaiawmoit after he left the UDP last year. Like the HSPDP, the Garo National Council (GNC) continued to raise the demands for a separate Garo state to be carved out of the three districts of West Garo hills, East Garo hills and South Garo Hills. The Khun Hynniewtrep National Awakening Movement (KHNAM) led by Pyndapborthiaw Saibol promised to work for the implementation of the Inner Line Permit (ILP) in the state - a provision which makes it mandatory for any Indian citizen to carry a domestic travel document in a place or region that implements it. Other priorities of the KHNAM included the scrapping of the Indo-Nepal Treaty of Friendship in Meghalaya, changes in the Land Transfer Act, renaming the state to better reflect the diversity of the state. Other parties in the fray included BJP, North East Social Democratic Party (NESDP) and Meghalaya Democratic Party (MDP). 


The exercise to elect the new government in Shillong was held on 23rd February. Though, outlawed militant organization - the Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC) which is fighting for a separate homeland for the Khasis called for a 
Meghalaya 2013: Results
36 hour band, people from all parts of the state came out in large numbers to fulfill their most important duty. Like so many times in the recent past, the high turnout at the booths despite the threat of violence has proved that the electorate is slowly becoming aware that democracy is the way forward. The much awaited results which were declared on the last day of the month certainly surprised even the most seasoned political observers. Mukul Sangma did the impossible, well almost, as he took the ruling Congress just two short of a simple majority in the Vidhan Soudha. The CM retained his seat by a margin of over 9,000 votes whereas his wife and brother also registered big victories. As compared to 2008 elections, the INC increased its strength by 4 seats making it the clear winner with twenty-nine seats. Except for South Garo Hills and West Khasi region, the party's performance in the five other districts exceeded expectations. By coming so close to forming a majority government, the INC has rendered several regional parties insignificant and raised expectations that unlike in the past, it will deliver on key issues, especially with the sword of Damocles no longer dangling over its head.

In sharp contrast to the exemplary numbers of the Congress, the regional outfits would have wished to do much better than what they eventually finished with. The UDP, which was being looked upon as the primary competition to the INC managed to get only eight seats. Donkupar Roy and Paul Lyngdoh scrapped past their opponents but former Deputy CM Bindoo Lanong was beaten by INC's Ampareen Lyngdoh by a whopping 5000 votes. With a significant chunk of the NCP's top leadership in the state deserting it, only two of its candidates were elected, a drastic fall of 12. Even the NPP - the party which quite literally was born out of the NCP did not have the dream debut that some sections of the media were talking about with only two of its nominees making the cut. The biggest shock for the party came when Conrad Sangma was beaten by Clement Marak of the Congress. It seems as if the 2013 Meghalaya elections may well have signaled the end of the political career of Purno Sangma whose habit of switching sides seems to have driven the people away from him. Meanwhile, the HSDPD was the pick of regional parties, doubling its strength to finish on four. Veteran leader Hoping Stone Lyngdoh lived up to to his 'unbeatable' tag retaining his seat of Nangtoin. He is the only person to have made it to the legislature each time since 1978. The GNC and the NESDP won a seat each. Thirteen independents were also elected which translates to over 20 per cent of the strength of the house.


As expected, the incumbent CM and the architect of the Congress's spectacular victory - Dr. Mukul Sangma was sworn in as the 24th Chief Minister of Meghalaya after he got "unconditional" support from the NCP and 11 independents.
Meghalaya 2013: Region-wise Break-up
With several members of his family making the cut, it seems that the Mukul Sangma clan has become the new first family of the state politics, snatching the title from the Purno Sangma clan which had a forgettable election. This was sweet revenge for him as he was beaten by Purno in the 2004 MP elections from Tura. However, his task is only half done. Apart from keeping his flock together, he needs to work on the ground to keep the momentum going in favour of his party ahead of 2014 polls. This is primarily important because unlike the Left in Tripura, the Congress has not swept Meghalaya. For the regional parties, they seriously need to have a rethink on their ideology. Instead of fighting for the rights and aspirations of one community, they need to expand their horizons and raise issues that find resonance with people across the state. Forming alliances with other players to consolidate the non-INC votes could be the key. Also, many believe that it is too early to write off Purno. The veteran leader still has a clout in some pockets and will campaign even harder to make a come back on the biggest stage of them all. While the Congress holds an edge, winning the two Lok Sabha seats from the state will certainly not be a cake walk for it considering the dynamics in the 'Abode of the Clouds'.

SOURCES

(1) Meghalaya Times: Corruption free state, effective Lokayukta tops UDP's manifesto (Link)

(2) Shillong Times: NCP confident of clean sweep in Garo hills (Link)

(3) The Hindu: NPP releases manifesto (Link)

(4) Meghalaya Times: HSPDP releases manifesto for 2013 assembly polls (Link)

(5) Meghalaya Times: 345 candidates in fray for Meghalaya Assembly polls 2013 (Link)

(6) Northeast Today: Khasi Rebel Outfit To Boycott Meghalaya Polls, Calls Shutdown (Link)

(7) Times of India: Mukul Sangma sworn in as Meghalaya Chief Minister (Link)