IN DIRE STRAITS

THE AGP MAY DRAW A BLANK IN THE 2014 POLLS

Courtesy: Asom Gana Parishad

Formed in the 1980s after years of peaceful protests against the settling of illegal Bangladeshi immigrants in Assam, the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) was once, the most powerful political party in north eastern state. Under the leadership of the young and dynamic student leader Prafulla Kumar Mahanta, it swept the 1986 state assembly polls winning a whopping 67 of the 126 seats; Mahanta created history as he was sworn in as the youngest Chief Minister in the country's political history at that time. Although the Congress managed to come back to power in the early 90s, the AGP again emerged as the largest party in the 1996 polls. That would be the last time that the regional outfit would be in power in Dispur. In 2001, the INC under Tarun Gogoi comfortably crossed the half way. Thanks to differences between top leader, allegations of corruption against Mahanta and his alleged role in the cold blooded murder of relatives of several ULFA terrorists, the AGP's tally went down to 26 seats that year. The party has, in fact never been able to replicate its early success and won a meagre 10 seats in the last assembly polls. In the General Elections too, its performance has been no better. A part of the several Third Front governments in the 1990s, it managed to win just one seat in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls which it fought as a constituent of the NDA. The crossing over of its senior leaders to the BJP in the last two years, the rise of newer rivals and its continued failure in its electoral campaigns in the state has put a question on the party's very existence. With many, predicting the AGP to draw a blank in 2014, the question arises as to whether it is still a relevant player in the state politics, forget the national scene.

Probably, the biggest reason that the AGP finds itself in such a big mess today is that it is it has not been able to change its ideology with times. Like other regional parties in different parts of the country - the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) in Goa and the Uttarakhand Kranti Dal (UKD) in Uttarakhand which were formed after mass agitations, the Gana Parishad has never 'refined' its ideology to stay relevant. As such, it has not been able to attract the youth, especially those born post the Assam Movement. Secondly, the party does not have effective leadership. While the Congress under Gogoi has consistently moved from strength to strength, Mahanta's popularity has seen several ups and downs over the years. Besides, the allegations of corruption and his 'indictment' in the Sakia commission's report on the secret killings of ULFA sympathizers levied against Prafulla Kumar has tarnished his image. Another big factor for the party's woes has been deep rooted factionalism in its rank. In fact, the regional party was itself formed by the amalgamation of several groups fighting for the Assamese cause way back in October 1985. In 1991, several top leaders left the outfit to form the Natun Asom Gana Parishad (NAGP) only to join back an year later. In 2005, the regional outfit expelled its own leader Mahanta for indulging in anti-party activities. However on 14th October 2008, exactly 22 years after the AGP was formed, all of its splinter groups including Mahanta's Asom Gana Parishad (Progressive), Atul Bora's Trinamool Gana Parishad and Pabindra Deka's Purbanchaliya Loka Parishad came back to renew the party and fight the Congress at Golaghat. The unity though was short lived as youth leader Sarbananda Sonorwal joined the BJP three years later. Lastly, the rise of other sub-regional players like the All India United Democratic Party (AIUDF) and the Bodoland People's Front (BPF) has further weakened the AGP. These parties have solid vote bank which is unlike to switch loyalties over to the Gana Parishad any time in the near future.

Even before the 2014 polls, the party's positions has remained weak and its future looks bleak. Earlier, the party had joined hand with several other regional parties in the region to form the North East Regional Political Front (Link). However, not much development has happened in that regard ever since its inception, prompting many to ask whether the 'alliance' exists anymore or not. Meanwhile, its only MP - Joseph Toppo had resigned after there were indications that the AGP would not renominate him from the Tezpur parliamentary seat. He was later placated and given the party's ticket. In fact, one has to keep in mind that it was the split in the Muslim votes in 2009 between the Congress and the AIUDF that helped the AGP win the seat. Also, at that time, the outfit had fought the elections as a part of the NDA. However this time around, it has decided to go all alone. In another jolt to the party, two of its senior leaders - former president Chandra Mohan Patowary and former minister Hitendra Nath Goswami switched allegiance to the saffron camp. The Assamese outfit was conspicuous by its absence at the launching of the Third Front, after initially hobnobbing with the Left (Link). Well, there is absolutely nothing to indicate that the AGP will perform will well. Most Opinion polls show that the Congress will continue to dominate state politics here in 2014 too while the AGP may even fail to open its account. In fact I would not be surprised if, like in 2004, it fails to win any seats (Link). A bad performance will spell doom; more defections can be expected and the AGP may slip to single digits in 2016 state polls.

	Constituency	AGP Candidate	2009 Winner
1	Kokrajhar		BPF
2	Dhubri		AIUDF
3	Barpeta		Congress
4	Gauhati	Birendra Prasad Baishya	BJP
5	Mangaldoi		BJP
6	Tezpur	Joseph Toppo	AGP
7	Nowgong	Mridula Barkakoty	BJP
8	Kaliabor	Dr Arun Sarma	BJP
9	Autonomous District	Will Support HSDP	Congress
10	Silchar		Congress
11	Karimganj		Congress
12	Lakhimpur	Hariprasad Dihingia	Congress
13	Jorhat	Pradip Hazarika	Congress
14	Dibrugarh	Anup Phukan	Congress

CHANGE OF GUARD

WILL REPLACING BAHUGUNA HELP THE CONGRESS

Harish Rawat (Courtesy: Sahara Samay)

With the elections coming closer, the Congress seems to be cornered on all fronts. The myriad corruption scandals, high inflation rates and economic slump have led to a strong anti-incumbency wave across the country. On the other hand, the BJP which had been a divided house for nearly a decade has found a new rallying point - its PM nominee Narendra Modi who has captivated the minds of the cadre. The INC tried to counter the Gujarat CM's growing influence by raising the issue of 'Secularism'. However, as opinion polls have predicted, the saffron leader's development agenda is a big hit amongst the masses while Congress' arguments are finding no takers. At the same time, the willingness of several non-NDA parties to work with the Hindutva leader was another big jolt to the UPA leadership, clearly indicating that many regional players are ready to join the BJP-led alliance provided it crosses the 200 mark. Aware of Modi's growing popularity and in a bid to divert attention from the failures of the UPA at the Centre, the party changed its strategy, deciding to focus on local issues at the state level. This too was a failure with the BJP and the AAP sweeping the recently concluded elections in the four states. Finally, the Congress took the big gamble as Rahul Gandhi gave a rare interview to Times Now Editor-in-chief Arnab Goswami. At the end of the 75 minute show, the younger Gandhi who could neither give convincing answers to any question thrown at him nor could put across his vision for the country was the laughing stock of the nation. At a time when they should convince people to vote for them, the party leaders are seen defending the royal scion in the last few days. Meanwhile the INC has not yet given up hope of a third consecutive term. The sacking of the Uttarakhand CM Vijay Bahuguna just a few months before the Lok Sabha polls is seen as a move to boost its chances in the state which it had swept in 2009. 

This is not the first time that a ripple effect of the General Elections has been felt in the capital Dehradun. In 2009 Lok Sabha polls, following the INC's white wash of the BJP, the incumbent CM B C Khanduri was asked to step down and replaced by his own aide Ramesh Pokhriyal. This move turned out to be a disaster; his alleged role in several scams became a cause of embarrassment to the party which was already facing the heat down south in Karnataka. Aware that Pokhriyal could dampen the party prospects in the 2012 state polls, Khanduri was brought back and placed at the helm of affairs. What should have been a cakewalk for the Congress turned out to be one of the closest electoral battles in the last few years thanks to factionalism within its ranks. Winning one seat more than the saffron outfit, the INC formed the government with support from the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP), the Uttarakhand Kranti Dal (UKD) and some independents. In what was seen as a counter to curb the growing influence of regional satraps like Harik Singh Rawat, Harish Rawat and Yaspal Arya to name a few, the party high command asked the dark horse - Tehri MP Vijay Bahuguna to occupy the top post. The first big jolt to the new CM came just few months down the line when his son Saket, a business man lost his dad's seat of Tehri to BJP's Mala Rajlakshmi Shah by over 22,000 votes. One of the prime reasons for the defeat was that several of the high profile state leaders refused to campaign for the CM's son. The big blow however, came in June 2013 when flash floods in and around the holy city of Kedarnath claimed over 5000 lives. Life and property worth crores was destroyed and tourism, one of the state's premiere sources of income took a major hit. In the following months, the callousness of the state administration to carry out the rescue operations and shoddy rehabilitation efforts further added to the strong anti-incumbency wave against the Central government, here in the hill state. As such, the Congress had no option but to sack Bahuguna. MP Harish Rawat, who enjoys the support of the majority members in the state legislature was made the CM.

CONSTITUENCY	1996	1998	1999	2004	2009
Almora	BJP	BJP	BJP	BJP	INC
Garhwal	AIIC (T)	BJP	BJP	BJP	INC
Hardwar	BJP	BJP	BJP	SP	INC
Nainital	AIIC (T)	BJP	INC	INC	INC
Tehri-Garhwal	BJP	BJP	BJP	BJP	INC

(1) Until 2004 Lok Sabha polls, the five constituencies in Uttarkhand were a part of Uttar Pradesh.

(2) AIIC (T): All India Indira Congress (Tiwari) was a splinter group of the Congress formed by N D Tiwari,  Arjun Singh and Natwar Singh which later merged with the INC.

The decision for a regime change in Dehradun should not surprise anybody. All opinion polls suggest that the UPA is struggling across the country. At the same time, Bahuguna administration's inefficient way of handling the relief work had become a major poll issue in the state which the BJP was trying to use for its own advantage. The Congress is hoping that the change of guard will cut down the anti-INC sentiments to some extent. A look at the above chart, showing which party won the five constituencies in the state over last five General Elections throws a surprising picture. Four out of the five times, Uttarkhand has chosen a clear winner. In other terms, it is a winner-takes-all state, like Tamil Nadu. In 1996, there was a close contest between the BJP and the N D Tiwari led AIIC(T). In the next two elections though, saffron wave swept the state as Congress struggled, managing to win just one seat in 1999. In 2004, the SP won Hardwar bringing the BJP's tally down by one whereas the INC held on to Nainital. The last election saw the Congress humiliating the BJP 5-0 in spite of the BJP lead coalition government in the state. The Congress' excellent show here was one of the biggest reasons for it to cross the 200 mark on its own. Five years down the line, with a strong anti-INC wave at the Centre and people's discontent with the state administration, the BJP is trying to capitalize on the situation and repeat its showing in 1998. The nomination of the Harish Rawat as the Chief Minister is an attempt by the Congress to bolster its prospects in the state. Will it work? Lets wait and watch.

IMAGES

(1) Harish Rawat (Courtesy: Sahara Samay)
Original: Sahara Samay - 1200 crores for disaster relief operations (Link)

THE STATES THAT MATTER - PART IV

 BATTLEGROUND UTTARAKHAND

Nestled amongst the mighty Himalayas, the state of Uttarakhand, characterized by lush green hills, steep doons (valleys), gushing rivers and abundant natural beauty is one of the most picturesque states of India. Dotted with places of pilgrimage and worship in Hinduism, the state, referred to as the ‘Land of the Gods’ attracts a large number of tourists each year. Carved out of north western Uttar Pradesh after a long, yet relatively peaceful struggle, the state has not yet made any significant progress even 12 years after its creation. The state politics has been dominated by the national parties – the BJP and the Congress and there have been five different Chief Ministers. Also, the electorate has voted out incumbent governments in the two assembly elections since its formation.

Aware of this fact, the ruling BJP is heavily banking on its CM Bhuvan Chand Khanduri to rewrite history and come back to power. A former army man who was given the Athi Vishisht Seva Medal by the President in 1982, he was the Minister for Road Transport and Highways in the NDA government and played a key role in the implementation of Vajpayee’s dream project – The Golden Quadrilateral. A four time Lok Sabha MP from Garhwal, he was made the Uttarkhand CM after he led the BJP to a victory in the 2007 elections. However, after a 5-0 drubbing at the hands of the Congress in the 2009 General elections, he was asked to take moral responsibility for the party’s dissmal show in the state and replaced by his former confidant, Ramesh Pokriyal Nishank as the saffron party was looking for an image makeover in the hill state.

Uttarakhand CM B C Khanduri

However, little did the BJP know that many of the problems that plague the party in this election would emanate from Pokriyal’s 18 month rule, or as his detractors say, ‘misrule’. During his tenure the government was shrouded in a series of scams, most notably the Kumbh Mela scam, irregularities in the bidding process for the construction of several hydro-electric plants and the Citurgia land scam. In fact, the situation soon became a political ‘hot potato’ for the BJP with the Congress accusing it of double standards in its anti-corruption campaign against the UPA government. Even civil society member, Arvind Kejriwal trained his guns at Pokriyal and labeled him as ‘pocket edition of Suresh Kalmadi’. Fearing a rout in the forthcoming polls, the BJP president Nitin Gadkari, at the behest of senior party leaders Murali Manohar Joshi and Rajnath Singh, summoned the Uttarakhand CM to New Delhi and sacked him. 

In a bid to regain lost ground, the saffron outfit installed its most popular leader in the state, Khanduri as the new CM. And in his second stint, Khanduri hit a six of the very first ball when he passed Anna Hazare’s version of the Lokpal bill. This move won him accolades from the civil society and further enhanced his image as a clean and upright leader. To cut the Congress to size in the state, he ordered inquiry into several cases of corruption during the N D Tiwari led Congress government. He also passed several popular legislations including Uttarakhand Right to Service Act (making 80 basic services to be provided within a prescribed time limit), Uttarakhand Special Courts Act (setting up of fast trials courts to deal against corruption) and Uttarakhand Transfer for Public Servants Act (dealing with frequent transfers of government employees). Thus what once looked like a cake walk for the Congress has turned into a tight contest. The ‘Khanduri Zarori Hain’ campaign of the BJP has revitalized the party cadre and opinion polls have suggested that the party may have a slight edge over the Congress in Uttarakhand.

The Opposition Congress finds itself rather on a sticky wicket. With the UPA government accused in a number of scams, the state unit of is finding hard to make the corruption under the Pokhriyal regime a major political issue.  However the main mudda for the party ahead of the upcoming polls is the lack of development in the last 5 years. Though blessed with perennial rivers, watered by glaciers in the Himalayas, many parts of the state are facing acute water shortage. Besides, routine power cut and lack of road connectivity, especially in rural areas has become a major road block in the state’s development and has given more ammunition to the party to attack the incumbent government. Unemployment and migration from hills due to poor living conditions in the villages are other planks that the Congress is fighting the assembly polls. But poll pundits have predicted that with high inflation may dent the prospects of the party in the state.

In fact, the large number of rebels that have entered the fray may hold the key as to who forms the next government in Dehradun.  Hoping to beat anti-incumbency, the BJP dropped a third of its sitting MLAs but the move backfired as many of these leaders have rebelled and are contesting against the party’s official candidates. Though former cabinet ministers, Khajan Das and Govind Singh Bist seem to have fallen in line after much persuasion, several others like Kedar Singh Fonia (Badrinath), G L Shah (Tharali) and Anil Nautiyal (Karnaprayag) have been expelled and are contesting the polls either as independents or as candidates of regional parties. Also, the party is facing rebellion in all three assembly seats in Chamoli district. 

BJP leaders Pokhriyal, Koshiyari and Khanduri

And the situation is equally bad for the Opposition. Although, it has given tickets to all its sitting MLAs, the Congress is facing rebels in several constituencies. With the state unit being divided into several camps, each supporting its own CM candidate, loyalists of leaders who have been denied party tickets, are standing as independents. Prominent amongst them include Jot Singh Bist (Dhanaulti), a Harish Rawat loyalist and Mantri Prasad Naithani (Devprayag), who is known to be close to Satpal Maharaj.

Another problem for the two national parties in the state is the infighting amongst the state leaders for the much coveted seat of the Chief Minister. While the BJP has projected Khanduri as its official CM candidate, former CMs Ramesh Pokriyal and Bhagat Singh Koshiyari have not yet given up their claims over the top post. Pokriyal, once a close confidant of Khanduri was chosen by the latter to replace him after he was made to resign following the BJP’s rout in 2009 Lok Sabha elections. This was seen by many as a move to prevent Koshiyari from being the CM. Although Khanduri and Koshiyari buried their hatchet and worked together to end Pokriyal’s stay at the helm of affairs in the state, the bonhomie was short lived and the two soon fell apart. 

Khanduri is contesting from Kotdwar in the plains after his seat of Dhumkot in the hills ceased to exist following the delimitation exercise. The sitting BJP MLA from the constituency, Shailendra Singh Rawat is known to be very popular in the area and has given up his seat in favor of Khanduri after initial resentment and the promise of a plum post if the party comes to power in the polls. Though many speculated that Shailendra may rebel against the party's dikat, he has been seen actively campaigning for the CM. 

Ramesh Pokhriyal, a sitting MLA from Thalisainin is contesting from the town of Doiwala near Dehradun. He has been side lined by the party and many of his loyalists including Anil Nautiyal, Pankaj Sehgal , G L Shah and Manveer Singh Chauhan have been denied tickets, thereby suppressing any chances of rebellion from his side. Without the support of local leader and agriculture minister, T S Rawat – a Koshiyari aide and with a slew of corruption charges against him, the former CM may find it extremely difficult to win his seat.

Koshiyari, who is a BJP MP from Rajya Sabha and a RSS favorite, is not contesting the state elections. Though the BJP has denied all allegations of infighting amongst its top leaders, sources say that relations between the BJP’s Tridevs are far from cordial and may affect the saffron party’s performance in the hill state.

Leader of Opposition Harak Singh Rawat

While BJP is said to be in split over the issues of CM, the Congress is in no better situation as it several potential candidates for the CM’s chair. Harak Singh Rawat, the Leader of Opposition in the outgoing house is contesting from Rudraprayag against brother-in-law, Matbar Singh Khandari who is a state minister and a two time MLA from the assembly seat. A protégé of Govindacharya, who left the BJP to join the BSP and then the Congress, he is seen as a frontrunner for the CM’s chair in case the Congress comes to power in the hill state. 

The Minister of State for Labour in the UPA government and Haridwar Lok Sabha MP, Harish Rawat is also seen by many as a potential CM candidate. Starting his political career at the village level, he has worked as a Trade Unionist and Youth Congress leader. As such he is seen as a grass root politician and enjoys the support of party cadres.

Dalit leader and state Congress in-charge Yashpal Arya is another prominent Congress leader form the state and is contesting from Bazpur seat. His Dalit-Muslim combine was a seen as instrumental in the party’s resounding victory in the 2009 elections. 

Lok Sabha MPs from the state Satpal Maharaj (Garhwal) and Vijay Bahugana (Tehri) are the other contenders in the fray. Even veteran Congress leader and former CM N D Tiwari has thrown his hat in the ring and has announced that he is ready to head the state if the ‘High command’ desires. The octogenarian politician has secured seats for his nephew Manish Tiwari (Gadarpur) and associate Indira Hridayesh (Haldwani).

The delimitation exercise in Uttarakhand which has reduced the representation of the ten hill districts and increases that of other three districts, namely Haridwar, Dehradun and Udham Singh Nagar may end up spoiling prospects of several top politicians in the state. Several top leaders including the BJP’s Khanduri, and Pokhriyal and Congress’s Yashpal Arya and Harak Rawat have been forced to shift their base and scout for new assembly seats.

Besides the two national parties, the BSP is hoping to increase its tally in the state assembly to double digits. In fact, the BSP supremo has realized that a good show in the upcoming elections in UP, Uttarakhand and Punjab may make her a force to reckon with in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. Continuing with her dream of becoming India’s first Dalit PM, the UP CM has addressed several rallies in the hill state in a bid to garner as many seats as possible. In the last assembly elections, the party did very well in the Haridwar district, winning 6 out of the 9 assembly seats. With the number of assembly seats from the district being increased to 11 this time around, the BSP is looking to improve its performance and emerge as a king-maker in case of a hung assembly.

UKD leader Diwakar Bhatt

The Uttarakhand Kranti Dal (UKD) which spear headed the movement for the creation of a separate hill state in the Himalayas has utterly failed in its motive to become a third alternative for the people of Uttarakhand. In the last assembly elections, the UKD could get only three seats and ended up supporting the BJP. Amongst the party’s main aim is the setting up of a new state capital at Gairsain and protecting the culture and rights of the people of the region. However, the UKD’s ideology, especially since the creation of the state has failed to strike a chord with the voters and its support base is sinking over the years. As of today, the party’s electoral symbol has been freezed by the EC and infighting between state cabinet minister Diwakar Bhatt and Trivender Singh Panwar has split the party into two factions, namely the UKD (D) and the UKD (P), which has joined hands with the Left parties. 

The Uttarakhand Raksha Morcha (URM) floated by former army man Lieut-Gen Tej Pal Singh Rawat has been able poach several leaders from the BJP and the Congress who have been disgruntled with their parties for various reasons. Rawat, who has been associated with the BJP and Congress in the past, is planning to win the hearts of the electorate by fielding clean candidates. 

As in other states, the political parties seem to have completely forgotten the issues that affect the farming community in the hill state. The man-animal conflict involving grazing of crops by herbivores, especially in the hilly terrain causes loss worth lakhs of rupees to the farmers. Also, the illegal quarrying of the Ganga river bed is destroying the National River and the flora and fauna that depend on it. This issue was highlighted by the death of Swami Nigmanad, who died in June 2011 after a long fast which attracted no large scale media attention as compared to the Baba Ramdev’s 11 day fast against the midnight police crackdown on his agitation against black money in New Delhi, which looked more like a farce.

Swami Nigmanad

As the election fever grips the state, the BJP and the Congress are trying their level best to win the forthcoming polls. The saffron outfit is aiming to rewrite history and get back to power for a second consecutive term. On the other hand, the Congress is highlighting the short comings of the incumbent government and trying to convince the electorate to vote it to power. The regional parties and the many independent candidates that are contesting the polls are hoping that a fractured mandate may make them key players in the process of government formation, provided they manage to win their seats. The people's verdict to be announced on 6th March will decide who rules the state and who bites the dust.

SOURCES

(1) Business Line - BJP banking on Khanduri's clean image to return to power in Uttarakhand (Link)

(2) NEWS Bullet.in - BJP magic to continue in Uttarakhand (Link)

(3) The Indian Express - Will file defamation suit against Kejriwal: Nishank (Link)

(4) Business Standard - In Uttarakhand, revolt in BJP more severe than Cong (Link)

(5) The Times of India - Many Nishank loyalists dropped from BJP list (Link)

(6) The Indian Express - Congress attempts to pin down Khanduri in his own constituency (Link)

(7) Zee News - Uttarakhand CM Candidates (Link)

(8) Jagran Post - Appraoch for Uttarakhand's chief minesterial post gains momentum in Congress (Link)

(9) Wikipedia - Uttarakhand Kranti Dal (Link)

(10) Jay Bharat, Jay Uttarakhand - Uttarakhand Kranti Dal (Link)

(11) The Tribune India - Pact with BJP proved 'suicidal' for UKD (Link)

(12) The Tribune India - Party activists will never forgive Panwar, says Diwakar Bhatt (Link)

(13) The Times of India - Maya eyes Uttarakhand to raise BSP's vote bank (Link)

(14) The Times of India - In Uttarakhand, politicians ignoring farmer's issues (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Uttarakhand CM B C Khanduri (Link)

Source: Zee News

(2) BJP leaders Pokhriyal, Koshiyari and Khanduri (Link)

Source: The Tribune India: Industrial package tops agenda  

(3) Leader of Opposition Harak Singh Rawat (Link)

Source: The Hindu: India committed to controlling foot and mouth disease  

(4) UKD leader Diwakar Bhatt (Link)

Source: The Tribune India

(5) Swami Nigmanad (Link)

Source: India Water Portal – Unsung Baba