MEGHALAYA & LOK SABHA 2014

WHO WILL WIN THE 'LAND OF CLOUDS'?

If the 2013 state election results are to go by, the Congress is all set to win the two seats in Meghalaya (Link). Early last year as the state went to polls, many were expecting that the NPP formed by former Lok Sabha Speaker P A Sangma after walking out of the NCP would significantly dent the INC's chances. However, the incumbent CM Mukul Sangma ensured that nothing of this sort would happen. Not only did the grand old party win, its tally grew from 25 to 29, just one short of a simple majority on its own. Sangma's former outfit the NCP as well as his new party - the NPP both were reduced to 2 seats each. In fact, other smaller outfits including the HSPDP and the UDP(M) did well comparatively. In fact, as many as 13 independents too made the cut. Against this back drop, the INC seems to be the front runner. However, can Sangma still make a come back. Lets see if we can find some answers.

ISSUES

(1) The political scenario in the state: With the state going to polls barely a year ago, the results of the 2013 elections are expected to have a tremendous bearing on this year's Lok Sabha polls too. Having come so close to forming the government on its own, the INC will be hoping to win the two seats. Although his party failed to do well on debut, writing off the nine time MP P A Sangma could prove to be a big mistake. With many regional players not contesting, the game seems to be different. The principal Opposition in the assembly - the UDP-M has put up one candidate whereas outfits like the Hill State People's Democratic Party (HSPDP) and the Garo National Council (GNC) have decided not to contest at all.

CONTENDERS

(1) Congress: The INC is confident that the performance of its CM Mukul Sangma will help it replicate the success of 1998. It has renominated former Union Minister Vincent H Pala from Shillong whereas it has fielded Daryl William Ch Momin against the NPP chief. The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) too has pledged its support to the INC

(2) National People's Party (NPP): The former Speaker in the Lower House of the Parliament Purno Agitok Sangma is seeking a tenth term from Tura. In the last polls, this seat was represented by his daughter Agatha Sangma who won on a NCP ticket and was also a junior minister in the UPA II cabinet for some time.

(3) United Democratic Party - Meghalaya (UDP-M): The principal opposition in the assembly the UDP-M has fielded its senior leader Paul Lyngdoh from Shillong.

PAST PERFORMANCES

Except for 1998 when it swept the state, the Congress has won a single seat in the other four of the last five Lok Sabha polls. Its partner in the UPA - the NCP won a seat in 2009 and a decade earlier in 1999. The TMC opened its account in 2004 when former Speaker P A Sangma won his parliamentary seat.

Political Party	2009	2004	1999	1998	1996
Congress	1	1	1	2	1
Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)	1	-	1	-	-
Trinamool Congres (TMC)	-	1	-	-	-
Independent	-	-	-	-	1

MY PREDICTIONS

I expect the ruling Congress which swept the state polls in 2013 to win one or even both the seats from here. Considering the fact the Sagma has already won from Tura multiple times. As such, one cannot rule out the fact that his NPP is a strong player.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	Congress (INC)	1-2
2	National People's Party (NPP)	0-1

WATCH OUT

(1) End of the road for Sangma? He is perhaps the most well known political figure from the entire North-East. Over the last ten years that I have followed politics, PurnoaSangma has been in the news on various occasions. In 2004, he split from the NCP over its decision to ally with the Sonia Gandhi led Congress. The decision backfired as the INC led coalition surprisingly won the national elections held that year. Five years down the line, his daughter was inducted in the UPA II as a Minister of State. In 2012, he left the NCP again, this time in his bid to become the first tribal President of the country. He failed again and then formed the NPP. In the last state polls, the new party was virtually finished; his son and the Leader of Opposition in the previous assembly Conrad Sangma too had to bite the dust. As such, a lot will depend on his performance in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. A victory would see him make a strong come back whereas a defeat would pull the curtains on a glorious career.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

THE NORTH-EASTERN CONFEDERACY

THE NEW ALLIANCE ON THE BLOCK

Source: Wikipedia

Just ahead of the 2014 General Elections, a group of parties from the North-east have come together to form the North East Regional Political Front (NERPF) with the novel aim of 'safeguarding the interest of the people of the region'. Earlier this week, representatives from 11 regional outfits came together in Guwahati to announce this new alliance which is expected to be a significant player in the run up to the big polls. While former CM of Assam and AGP chief Prafulla Kumar Mahanta was appointed as the chief adviser of this new front, other advisers include Paban Kumar Chamling - the Chief Minister of Sikkim, former CMs Donkupar Roy of Meghalaya and Joram Thanga of Mizoram. Serving Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio of the NPP who won a second consecutive term earlier this year beating the Congress was named as the chief convener of the NERPF. The leaders of  the new coalition which includes the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), the Naga People's Front (NPF), the United Democratic Party (UDP), the Hill State People's Democratic Party (HSPDP), the Manipur People's Party (MPP), the Manipur State Congress Party (MSCP), the Manipur People's Democratic Front (MPDP), the Mizo National Party (MNP), the People's Party of Arunachal (PPA) , the Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF) and the Indigenous People's Front of Twipra (IPFT) has left its doors open for other regional players to join them. In fact, this news has created a flutter in political circles. Former Punjab CM Surjit Singh Barnawala of the Akali Dal was present on the occasion to express his support and even TDP chief Chandra Babu Naidu is said to be in touch with its leaders.

The NERPF seems to be making the right kind of noise at least for the time being. Belonging to a part of the country that has largely been ignored by the political establishment in New Delhi, the front has taken the cause of the North east, promising to work for the region that has never got its due, either politically or economically. It has been critical of China's claims over the state Arunachal, asking for measures against Chinese incursion into Indian territory. Battered by years of neglect and insurgency, the region lags behind the rest of the country in terms of development. The NERPF has called for Beijing to stop work on all dams in the upper stages of the Brahmaputra which is the lifeline of the region, with immediate effect. On similar lines, it has taken a strong stand against Bangladesh, asking the government not to go ahead with the proposed the enclave swapping deal with our eastern neighbor. Besides, it has called for the deportation of illegal migrants who have crossed over to our side. The alliance has asked the Centre to withdraw the Arms Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) - an emotive issue, especially in the troubled state of Manipur, from all of the North-east. Like all regional players, it has promised to provide reservation in Central government jobs for the people of the region, the rebuilding of the Slitwell Road and implementation of the Look East policy which seems to have lost its steam over the years. Lastly, the NERPF has asked for the scrapping of the Concurrent list and transferring all the subjects in it to the State List - the eternal dream of all federalists. 

While the leaders may claim to be working in the interests of the region, there is more to it than than just that. In spite of all the hype over the Third Front, the reality on the ground is that regional parties in the smaller states, except for the Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab, the SDF in Sikkim and the NPF in Nagaland are in the decline. In the North-east, these outfits are losing ground to the Congress which has made the region one of its strong holds across the nation. The party under the leadership of Tarun Gogoi won a third straight term in 2011 assembly elections, winning 79 of the 126 seats as the AGP was reduced to single digit. In alliance with the BJP, the party won a single seat in the 2009 Lok Sabha. Earlier this year, the HSPDP and the UDP could only win 12 seats in total in Meghalaya as the IPFT drew a blank in Tripura where the Red fever was on a high. The MNP has just 5 MLAs in the Mizoram legislature, as opposed to the ruling INC which won 32 seats on its own; the PPA has only 4 seats in Arunachal and the MSCP has 5 MLAs in Manipur. Considering the dismal state that majority of the constituents find themselves in, the move will send across the right message to the electorate while helping to consolidate the anti-Congress votes. In a place like north-eastern India where the political space is fragmented amongst smaller parties, all catering to a section of the society, the united front will give a big boost to the regional players who are keen to win back their lost space. However, other than the Congress, the North-East Front will have to fight out with a lot of other regional outfits who may end up defeating the purpose of this move.

Probably, the biggest challenge that this group posses is to the Congress. Presently the party is ruling in six of the eight states and in each of these legislatures, it has above sixty percent of the seats. In the 2009 polls, the party, on its own won 13 out of the 25 Lok Sabha seats from th North-east. Even its ally in the UPA - the Nationalist Congress Party has a substantial support base here. However, with the formation of the front, the anti-Congress vote will not get split, at least to a big extent, like it used to in the past. In an election wherein the INC is facing issues like anti-incumbency, corruption and inflation, the NERPF is emerging as its main nemesis in the region. With pundits predicting that the Congress may struggle in 2014, losing even a few seats to the opposition will cost the UPA, especially in case of a hung assembly. The NDA and the BJP on the other hand seem to be quite happy with this development. In fact, the presence of the former Punjab CM on the eve of the announcement of this grand alliance is seen as NDA's support to it. BJP's only ally from here is the former Speaker of the Lower House - P A Sangma, whose candidature was supported by the Opposition camp for Presidency. However, his party's disastrous debut in the 2013 Meghalaya elections has proved that he has lost all his influence even in his native Garo Hills. As such, the NDA has no other option but to cos up to the NERPF before the polls. In coming days, it is expected that the Left parties may try to woo this coalition also. Meanwhile, keeping their cards close to their chest, the group has said that it will maintain 'equi-closeness' to both the UPA and the NDA ahead of the big polls.

With the General Elections just about eight months away, there is a lot that the NERPF and its constituents have to do to put on a formidable show. Firstly, many of the parties here have to build their organization at the grass root level and rejuvenate the cadre. Secondly, the Front should work towards getting other important players in the region like the All India United Democratic Front and the Bodoland People's Front into its fold so as to garner more support and votes. Also, seat sharing is expected to get murkier in the coming days and a few parties may even walk out. In an area like the North-east with complex issues, where solving one issue can lead to protests from several other groups, keeping the folk together, both before and after the polls may even become a nightmare. The big question will be how many seats the NERPF win in 2014. At present, it highly unlikely that the alliance will win more than 7 seats. However, to make sure that it has political influence in the process of formation of the next government in New Delhi, it has to win at least 10 to 15 seats in the next Parliament. In the situation where both the UPA and NDA fall short of the magic figure, this group will be one of the most sought after in the post-poll scenario. Whatever be the fate of this confederacy, I hope that the next Union government gives India's North-east the attention that it truly deserves and helps it to march on the path of progress, healing the scars of decades of insurgency and maladministration.

BATTLEGROUND MEGHALAYA

CONGRESS ON CLOUD NINE

Bordered by Assam in the north and Bangladesh in the south, Meghalaya - one of the Seven Sisters of India was one of the two states that went to the polls on February 23. On one hand, while it is one of the most beautiful places in the country, famous for its heavy downpour, dense forests,

Meghalaya 2013: The Contenders

spectacular waterfalls and most importantly, a vibrant tribal culture which is an amalgamation of the traditions and beliefs of the various communities found here, it is also the most 'politically volatile' state of the country, having seen a staggering 23 governments over a period spanning just four decades, besides innumerable instances of President's Rule. With instability being the order of the hour, infrastructural development has been painstakingly slow whereas poverty and unemployment has been on the rise. And insurgency which traces its root to the locals versus migrants problems has only aggravated the woes of the people. Even in the last elections, a fractured verdict was the prime reason for four different regimes, of which one survived just for 9 days. Considering the voting patterns of different region and communities within the state, the various political parties in the fray and the countless issues that they raised, there was nothing to indicate that any of the top contenders would cross the magic mark of 30 on their own to provide a solid government that could concentrate on solving the problems of the masses.

Dr Mukul Sangma, the incumbent Chief minister and MLA from Ampatigiri led the charge for the ruling Congress. Having assumed office in April 2010, he was confident that the 'good work' that he had done over the last three odd years were enough to take the party past the half way mark on its own after the United Democratic Party - a regional outfit and the second largest constituent of the ruling combine decided to call it quits. In fact, even when the NCP approached the ruling party for a pre poll alliance, he refused the offer, a bold move in the age of coalition politics. In a bid to strengthen the party's prospects ahead of the mandate, the INC took some strong decisions, dropping several sitting MLAs viewed as non-performers and roping in popular independents into its fold. Also, banking on the image of the CM, his wife Dikanchi Shira and brother Zenith Sangma were given tickets from Mahendraganj and Rangsakona respectively. Making its intentions of crossing the majority on its own, it fielded candidates in all 60 seats. In its manifesto, the party tried to beat anti-incumbency by playing the development card - promising to reduce poverty, generate more jobs for the youth and strive hard for the safety of women. Several populist schemes like affordable housing projects and an additional two cylinders at subsidized rates were also announced to protect its vote base in the wake of complete failure of the UPA to check price rise. Several top leaders including the trio of Manmohan, Sonia and Rahul were brought in to attract the crowds and so were INC leaders from Arunachal and Assam.

The United Democratic Party (UDP) which walked out of the Sangma government days before the election was hoping that the move to distance itself from the INC would help consolidate the anti-Congress votes in its favour, giving it an advantage over other regional players. Dr Donkupar Roy, a former CM was quite certain that they would bag 20 plus seats and emerge as the single largest party in the new assembly, gaining well over the 11 that they had won in 2008. With corruption becoming synonymous with the UPA all thanks to the several scams that have been unearthed in its second innings, the party had made fighting graft one of the most important points in its agenda. In its manifesto, the UDP had promised to set up an effective Lokayuta in Meghalaya, besides taking steps to reduce crimes against women which was on the rise. Other points mentioned included the demarcation of the international border, solving the decades old boundary dispute with Assam, generating more jobs in agriculture and allied sector, improving cleanliness and tackling the traffic menace in the capital. Prominent faces amongst the 57 candidates of the party were Bindo Lanong (East Shillong) and Paul Lyngdoh (West Shillong) , besides Dr Roy (Shella).

The state unit of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) which was dealt a crucial blow with the exit of stalwart Purno Sangma who resigned after the party refused to support his candidature for the Presidency received another jolt when the outgoing CM out rightly rejected their offer of an electoral alliance. With both sons of

The Battle for Garo Hills: NPP vs NCP

Purno deserting the party and his daughter and MP Agatha refusing to campaign for NCP candidates, Rajya Sabha MP Thomas Sangma was asked to resign and contest from North Tura constituency whereas state president Sanbor Shullai filed in his papers from South Shillong. Speaking to reporters during the release of their manifesto, Shullai had said that they would do well in the Garo hills inspite of some of its legislators jumping over to the newly launched NPP. Though he himself did not contest the elections, former CM and Lok Sabha Speaker P A Sangma who joined the National People's Party (NPP) after he lost out to Pranab Mukherjee in the race to the Raisina Hills campaigned heavily in his native Garo Hills for his sons - the former leader of Opposition in the state Conrad and his elder brother James. Even their sister Agatha who is presently with the NCP joined her father to help her brothers. Sangma stressed the need to wipe corruption from the state by appointing a Lokayukta, taking concrete steps to save the environment and promised to fight for reservation in Central government jobs for the people of North east. The outfit was hoping to piggy bank on the popularity of Purno in the west and emerge as a key player in the process of forming the next government. The two parties whose manifestos were pretty much alike, fielded 32 and 21 candidates respectively.

Meghalaya is home to many different tribes - the Garos, the Khasis, the Jaintias and the Bhois being the biggest. With each of these communities having varied aspirations and facing specific problems, many smaller regional parties have come up in the state over the years, each having a small yet significant vote bank. Apart from reiterating its demand for the creation of a separate Garo-Jaintia state, the Hill State People's Democratic Party (HSPDP) laid stress on issues like the influx of migrants, opposing the proposed extraction of uranium, separation of the joint Assam - Meghalaya cadre and improving road connectivity in the far flung areas. Supremo H S Lyngdoh also manged to get in the big fish - Nongkrem legislator Ardent Basaiawmoit after he left the UDP last year. Like the HSPDP, the Garo National Council (GNC) continued to raise the demands for a separate Garo state to be carved out of the three districts of West Garo hills, East Garo hills and South Garo Hills. The Khun Hynniewtrep National Awakening Movement (KHNAM) led by Pyndapborthiaw Saibol promised to work for the implementation of the Inner Line Permit (ILP) in the state - a provision which makes it mandatory for any Indian citizen to carry a domestic travel document in a place or region that implements it. Other priorities of the KHNAM included the scrapping of the Indo-Nepal Treaty of Friendship in Meghalaya, changes in the Land Transfer Act, renaming the state to better reflect the diversity of the state. Other parties in the fray included BJP, North East Social Democratic Party (NESDP) and Meghalaya Democratic Party (MDP). 

The exercise to elect the new government in Shillong was held on 23^rd February. Though, outlawed militant organization - the Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC) which is fighting for a separate homeland for the Khasis called for a 

Meghalaya 2013: Results

36 hour band, people from all parts of the state came out in large numbers to fulfill their most important duty. Like so many times in the recent past, the high turnout at the booths despite the threat of violence has proved that the electorate is slowly becoming aware that democracy is the way forward. The much awaited results which were declared on the last day of the month certainly surprised even the most seasoned political observers. Mukul Sangma did the impossible, well almost, as he took the ruling Congress just two short of a simple majority in the Vidhan Soudha. The CM retained his seat by a margin of over 9,000 votes whereas his wife and brother also registered big victories. As compared to 2008 elections, the INC increased its strength by 4 seats making it the clear winner with twenty-nine seats. Except for South Garo Hills and West Khasi region, the party's performance in the five other districts exceeded expectations. By coming so close to forming a majority government, the INC has rendered several regional parties insignificant and raised expectations that unlike in the past, it will deliver on key issues, especially with the sword of Damocles no longer dangling over its head.

In sharp contrast to the exemplary numbers of the Congress, the regional outfits would have wished to do much better than what they eventually finished with. The UDP, which was being looked upon as the primary competition to the INC managed to get only eight seats. Donkupar Roy and Paul Lyngdoh scrapped past their opponents but former Deputy CM Bindoo Lanong was beaten by INC's Ampareen Lyngdoh by a whopping 5000 votes. With a significant chunk of the NCP's top leadership in the state deserting it, only two of its candidates were elected, a drastic fall of 12. Even the NPP - the party which quite literally was born out of the NCP did not have the dream debut that some sections of the media were talking about with only two of its nominees making the cut. The biggest shock for the party came when Conrad Sangma was beaten by Clement Marak of the Congress. It seems as if the 2013 Meghalaya elections may well have signaled the end of the political career of Purno Sangma whose habit of switching sides seems to have driven the people away from him. Meanwhile, the HSDPD was the pick of regional parties, doubling its strength to finish on four. Veteran leader Hoping Stone Lyngdoh lived up to to his 'unbeatable' tag retaining his seat of Nangtoin. He is the only person to have made it to the legislature each time since 1978. The GNC and the NESDP won a seat each. Thirteen independents were also elected which translates to over 20 per cent of the strength of the house.

As expected, the incumbent CM and the architect of the Congress's spectacular victory - Dr. Mukul Sangma was sworn in as the 24^th Chief Minister of Meghalaya after he got "unconditional" support from the NCP and 11 independents.

Meghalaya 2013: Region-wise Break-up

With several members of his family making the cut, it seems that the Mukul Sangma clan has become the new first family of the state politics, snatching the title from the Purno Sangma clan which had a forgettable election. This was sweet revenge for him as he was beaten by Purno in the 2004 MP elections from Tura. However, his task is only half done. Apart from keeping his flock together, he needs to work on the ground to keep the momentum going in favour of his party ahead of 2014 polls. This is primarily important because unlike the Left in Tripura, the Congress has not swept Meghalaya. For the regional parties, they seriously need to have a rethink on their ideology. Instead of fighting for the rights and aspirations of one community, they need to expand their horizons and raise issues that find resonance with people across the state. Forming alliances with other players to consolidate the non-INC votes could be the key. Also, many believe that it is too early to write off Purno. The veteran leader still has a clout in some pockets and will campaign even harder to make a come back on the biggest stage of them all. While the Congress holds an edge, winning the two Lok Sabha seats from the state will certainly not be a cake walk for it considering the dynamics in the 'Abode of the Clouds'.

SOURCES

(1) Meghalaya Times: Corruption free state, effective Lokayukta tops UDP's manifesto (Link)

(2) Shillong Times: NCP confident of clean sweep in Garo hills (Link)

(3) The Hindu: NPP releases manifesto (Link)

(4) Meghalaya Times: HSPDP releases manifesto for 2013 assembly polls (Link)

(5) Meghalaya Times: 345 candidates in fray for Meghalaya Assembly polls 2013 (Link)

(6) Northeast Today: Khasi Rebel Outfit To Boycott Meghalaya Polls, Calls Shutdown (Link)

(7) Times of India: Mukul Sangma sworn in as Meghalaya Chief Minister (Link)