SHIV-RAJ IN MP? - PART III

MADHYA PRADESH 2013: THE ISSUES THAT MATTER

LEADERSHIP DEBATE

Riding on his charisma, the BJP is trying to make the upcoming polls a straight contest between their Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan and the Congress. In fact, this makes a lot of sense for the ruling party, considering the fact that the Opposition is split in two distinct sections. A soft spoken leader who is identified as the man who ushered in some sort of development in a relatively 'backward' state in his eight year long term, Chauhan enjoys immense popularity amongst the masses. His welfare schemes targeting the women and the poor have made him extremely popular and the saffron brigade is hoping that he can win a third straight term for them. Opinion polls carried out by several organizations have shown that the CM's ratings are quite high considering the fact that he has been in power for eight years. However, the reality on the ground is that as the polling date comes closer, the fight is getting too close to call. Large number of rebels in the fray could just do the damage that the Congress has not been able to do on its own. As such, apart from his constituency of Budhni, Chauhan has filed his papers from Vidisha - a move to cut down the influence of former Finance Minister Raghavji who is the sitting MLA from here. It was reported that Raghavji was hoping that the party would nominate his daughter from here.

Keen to project a fresh face to take on the heavy weight Chauhan, the Congress named Union Minister Jyothiraditya Scindia as the head of campaign in Madhya Pradesh. Representing the Guna constituency, the clean image of the young leader and the good will earned by his his late father, the much beloved Madhavrao Scindia who died in a tragic plane crash in 2001 has worked in his favor. However, in the run up to the polls, media reports coming from the Congress camp indicated that two distinct factions had emerged with each trying to out do the other in the race to get tickets for their supporters. Jyothiraditya and his colleague Kamal Nath had ganged up against former CM Digvijay Singh and his loyalist - Ajay Singh and Kantilal Bhuria. Luckily for the Opposition, it seems that the Scindia scion and former royal of Raghogarh have mended their fences in the last after the intervention of the Gandhis. Off late, the INC is making inroads in Chambal and Baghelkhand regions where it is expected to do well. The general perception is that the Congress would have decimated the ruling party had the Gwalior scion been named as its CM candidate bout an year back. However is it too little, too late? Well, only time will tell. 

MODI vs RAHUL - THE LITMUS PAPER TEST 

While it is true that state elections are fought primarily on local issues, the impact that the upcoming assembly polls will have on the General Elections in 2014 cannot be entirely ruled out. Poll pundist and political observers have dubbed these polls as the semi-finals before the clash of the titans in next May. There are two factors that make Madhya Pradesh extremely important in this context. Firstly, it is one of the few states that sees a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress - the two major parties in the Indian political scene. The Left Front and its allies in the much hyped Third Front have no support base here what so ever. Secondly, the state sends 29 MPs to the Lower House of the Parliament and a spectacular win here will give the victor a head start over the other in the big battle seven months down the line. The last General Elections was a close fight with the BJP winning 16 seats whereas the INC took home 12 as the BSP registered victory in one constituency.

Narendra Modi - the BJP's PM nominee addressed a rally in Bhopal on 25^th September titled the 'Karyakarta Mahakumbh' which some claim to be is the biggest political congregation of its kind in the world where he heaped praises on the performance of the Chauhan regime. The Jhansi leg of his 'Vijay Shankhand' tour of the neighboring Uttar Pradesh also drew large crowds from adjoining districts of MP due to its geographical proximity. The Gujarat CM is expected to campaign here from 18^th November to 22^nd November. On similar lines, Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi kick started his Madhya Pradesh campaign with the 'Satta Parivartan' rally in Sagar where he tore into the state government for failing on parameters like poverty, hunger and rural health while ignoring the region of Bagelkhand. This was later followed by another big gathering at Indore on the same day where he promised to make the city the economic hub of the state if voted to power. With both the PM nominees battling it out in the heart of India, the results here will be a good opportunity for both the BJP and the Congress to asses their preparedness before May 2014.

For more on the Madhya Pradesh Elections 2013, click here (Link)

SHIV-RAJ IN MP? - PART I

MADHYA PRADESH 2013: CONGRESS - A DIVIDED HOUSE

Dubbed as the 'Heart' of Incredible India, the mega state of Madhya Pradesh will go to the polls on 25^th November later this year. Like in neighboring Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, what makes the elections here extremely important, especially ahead of the big 2014 General elections is that it will witness a direct fight between the ruling BJP and the opposition Congress. While the saffron brigade has been in power in the state for the last decade, the INC is heading a coalition regime at the Center for two consecutive terms. With BJP's Prime Ministerial nominee Narendra Modi and Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi addressing massive rallies here, it can be concluded that the 2013 state elections are been increasingly seen as the semi final just ahead of the Lok Sabha polls which is scheduled for next May. The pundits have given a clear edge to the incumbent CM, predicting that the party may replicate here the success that it saw in Gujarat riding on the popularity of Shivraj Singh Chauhan. However, by putting the dynamic and young Jyotiraditya Scindia in charge of its campaign in the state, the Congress is fighting back and may well pull off the biggest upset of 2013.

While the BJP claims that the development carried by the incumbent government will ensure its victory, what is making life easier for Chauhan is the lack of unity in the Congress camp. Although the party high command - the highest authority in the party has deputed Jyotiraditya Scindia - the son of the former Union Minister and Scindia scion Madhavrao to lead its battle, the feud amongst the prominent leaders of the state has not yet ended and could jeopardize the process of ticket distribution. Ahead of the polls, the Congress has split into two distinct groups, with each trying to out do the other, often resulting in the washing of dirty linen in public. Scindia is said to have teamed up with Union Minister Kamal Nath who is coordinating the campaign. On the other hand, Digvijay Singh - the Rakhi Sawant of Indian politics, who is serving a self imposed 10 year exile from the state after his rout at the hands of Uma Bharati in 2003 is also flexing his muscles, using state party President Kantilal Bhuria and the Leader of Opposition in the incumbent assembly - Ajay Singh as his proxies.

The fighting has become so bitter that it was reported that Diggi Raja was not allowed to attend a press conference being addressed by Scindia. Kantilal Bhuria is said to have had an audience with Sonia Gandhi after his advise over the selection of candidates in his home town of Jhabua was completely ignored. Die hard fans of the INC will point out that INC has never has faced similar situations in the past in other states. In fact, on the eve of the Uttarkhand polls held last year, the party was divided into over five groups, each headed by a Chief Ministerial hopeful. Considering the allegations of corruption against several BJP leaders, most notably the former CM Pokriyal, the Congress messed up the whole thing big time and managed to win just by a single seat in an election which it was speculated to sweep. However the scenario in MP is drastically different. The BJP here is in solid form and reports on the ground indicate that the charisma of Chauhan who was once being touted as the party's contender for the top job in 2014 is working in its favor.

Meanwhile the decision to appoint Scindia junior at the helm of affairs by passing veterans like Bhuria and long time MLA Ajay Singh seems to be a calculated risk. Jyotiraditya's father Madhavrao Scindia who died in a tragic air incident in 2001 was one of the most influential political leader from 1981 until his death besides being the titular chief of the erstwhile princely state of Gwalior. Besides his father's legacy, the party is hoping that his image as a youth leader will be a hit amongst the over 50 lakh young voters. With unemployment remaining high and MP still trailing behind in key areas like development, the youth vote might be the game changer for the Congress. The first list of candidates released last week includes a mix of sitting MLAs, prominent leaders from Youth Congress and finally, in continuation of the party's tradition, kin of several party veterans. Prominent candidates include Ajay Singh (Churat), his deputy in the state legislature Bisahulal Singh (Annupur), Satyadev Katare (Ater), Narayan Tripathi (Maihar), Ravi Joshi (Khargone), Bala Bachchan (Rajpur) and Surajbhan Singh Solanki (Harsud). Digvijay's son Jai Vardhan has filed his papers from Raghogarh without waiting for the Congress to name him. The party is also likely to benefit from large number of BJP rebels who are expected to hurt the saffron outfit's chances.

For more on the Madhya Pradesh Elections 2013, click here (Link)

THE STATES THAT MATTER: NOV-DEC 2013

THE DRESS-REHEARSAL BEFORE THE GENERAL ELECTIONS

The State elections - November/December 2014

As a politically eventful year nears its end, five states will go to the polls in November-December 2013, most of these seeing a straight fight between the two major parties in the country - the Congress and the BJP. On the eve of the impending battle in 2014, the upcoming elections are an excellent opportunity for the ruling UPA (United Progressive Alliance) to asses the performance of the central government in the last decade of its rule or as its detractors say, its misrule. Though anti-incumbency is on a all time high and the ratings of the PM and his party are falling at a rather alarming rate, the INC is putting its 'best foot' forward with Vice President Rahul Gandhi talking on issues that affect the aam admi like his mother's deteriorating health, the assassination of his father and grand mother in spite of their 'great' contribution towards the country and the startling claim of ISI's role in instigating violence in Muzzaffarabad. I must say that Baba is quite courageous; to go on the big stage and talk 'nonsense' in front of thousands of people hit by poverty, price rise and unemployment is no mean feat.

For the principal Opposition - the BJP, their prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is on a blitzkrieg, addressing rallies in these states, asking people to support his outfit while personally targeting the Prime Minister. While conveniently forgetting his administrative failure during the 2002 Godhra riots - the primary reason for the fall of the Vajpayee regime way back in 2004, he is being portrayed by the right wing as a 'Super Hero' who will rid India of all the problems that plague her. In a country which traditionally draws its strength from cultural, religious, regional and linguistic diversity, a 'divisive' leader like NaMo is a complete misfit. Needless to say, in a democracy like where its only the numbers that count, who actually cares about morals after all? And the BJP is no exception. Thankfully for the people, none of the constituents of the much hyped Third Front have any significant presence here. Although the General elections may be just about seven months away, we also need to realize that state elections are to a large extent fought on local issues and a great performance here may not be easy to replicate at the Center in the days to come. Nonetheless, a good show will for sure, boost the morale in the victor's camp.

In Delhi, Sheila Dixit will lead the charge for the Congress as she battles for a forth consecutive term. Although there seems to be wide spread dissatisfaction about her government, she still continues to be quite popular amongst the masses, something that her party is hoping will work in their favor. In spite of her personal image, the furor over the Delhi Common Wealth Games corruption scandal, the outrage following the Nirbhaya rape case and rising prices will make it extremely difficult for the Congress to cross the half way mark of 35 on its own. In fact, for the INC, winning this poll on its own will be like climbing the Everest without any oxygen cylinders. Meanwhile, the BJP should be credited for completely messing up the situation which till recently was heavily tilted on its side. The indecisiveness over its leadership here, something that we generally associate with the INC, has stolen the thunder off its campaign. The Aam Admi Party (AAP) born out of Anna Hazare movement's Lokpal movement is emerging as a serious contender as it is raking up the issues that affect the people of the capital. With Arvind Kejriwal training its gun over the two major national parties, the newly launched outfit may severely damage the prospects of both Sheila Dixit and Harsh Vardhan.

In Madhya Pradesh, CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan is relying on his work in the last seven years at the helm of affairs to win a third straight term in Bhopal for the BJP. I wonder whether not taing any strict action against the sand mafia here is also one of his many 'developmental' schemes. While trends seem to indicate that his party is likely to reach the magic mark of 115 quite comfortably, even though it may end up losing about 20 seats, the saffron brigade cannot be complacent and drop its guard. Hope the party remembers the disaster of 2004 when its complacency allowed the Congress to script a famous win. MP and young Turk Jyothiraditya Scindia, with his clean image and connectivity with the youth, is overlooking the elections for the Congress, which like its nemesis in Delhi seems to not have learnt any lessons from bitter experiences in the earlier elections. In neighboring Chattisgarh too, the charisma and the development work of Raman Singh is working for the BJP, in spite of the fact that parallel government of the Maoists is controlling several parts of the state. Unfortunately for the Congress, it lost most of its top brass in the ghastly Darbha attack and ever since has become directionless. Ajit Jogi, the former CM is its only hope in giving some competition to the BJP.

If media reports are to be believed, Vasundhara Raje Scindia is all set to return as the Chief Minister of Rajasthan for a second term, five years after losing power to Congress' Ashok Gelhot. Raje has done her homework well this time around, mending differences with other leaders in the state as well as those in Delhi. For the state government, fighting anti-incumbency that seems to be looming large, will be rather difficult. However, writing off a veteran like Gelhot can be a costly mistake. The last state to go to the polls is Mizoram in the North east where the Congress is presently in power. CM Lal Thanawla will face a potent threat from the Mizo National Front led by extremist turned politician Zoramathanga. As the fight for the five states intensifies in the coming days, expect fireworks, numerous allegations and counter allegations, many defections and several mammoth rallies to woo the voters. While local issues may ultimately decide the winners, there is no doubt they will impact the big general elections scheduled in May 2014 in more ways than one.