CLOSE ENCOUNTER IN C'GARH - PART II

CHHATTISGARH POLLS 2013: CAN THE CONGRESS STORM RAIPUR?

For the Congress which is warming the opposition benches in the Chhattisgarh legislative assembly for the last decade, the massacre of most of its top leadership in the state in the Darbha naxal attack on 25 May, 2013 was indeed a crushing blow. As a part of the Parivartan rally launched by the party to fight the Raman Singh government, about 200 Congressmen were on their way to Keshloor after addressing a rally in Sukhma. En route, their cavalcade was fired upon by hundreds of armed Maoists who had set up a trap for them. Nand Kumar Patel, the state party President and his son Dinesh were taken alive and later killed. Senior leader Vidya Charan Shukla who served as a cabinet minister on several occasions also died after being hit multiple times. However, the target for the armed Communists was Mahendra Karma, a former MLA and the founder of the controversial Salva Jadum - an organization of tribals formed to fight the Maoist which was disbanded later by an order of the Supreme Court. Other leaders who died in this unfortunate encounter include Uday Mudaliyar and Gopal Madhavan.

Though the incident was a big blow for the Congress, this has not stopped the party from drawing political mileage out of the situation. In a bid to gain sympathy votes, tickets have been allocated to the kin of many of the slain men. Devati Karma - the wife of Mahendra Karma, popularly known as the 'Tiger of Dantewada' has been given a party ticket from Dantewada seat. Similarly, Umesh Patel, the younger son of Nand Kumar Patel will be contesting from Kharasia. It should not be surprising if the Congress wins these two seats with a heavy margin. A master stroke of sorts from the Opposition camp is the nomination of Alka Mudliyar - the wife of Uday Mudliyar from Rajnandgaon against the incumbent CM Raman Singh. While the BJP is confident that their leader will win an easy victory from this constituency owing to the work he has done in the state in the last decade, the sympathy votes can swing the balance in the favor of the Congress. The rebellion by Vajpayee's niece Karuna Shukla has made the matters worse for the saffron outfit. The fact that the constituency has never re-elected its sitting MLA should be a reason enough for the BJP to take Alka seriously.

While it was expected that Patel would lead the INC's charge in the state, the incident has brought Ajit Jogi - the first CM of the Chhattisgarh, back into prominence. It seems that life has come a full circle for this Scheduled Caste leader. After the Congress lost power to the BJP in 2003, his name figured in a controversy which saw him being suspended from the party. It was alleged that he used Sonia Gandhi's name to break the BJP legislature in the state. However, following a deadly car incident which has left him wheel chair ridden for life, he was brought back into the party and given a ticket from Mahasamund which he won. He represented the Marwahi seat in the last assembly polls. In fact, Jogi was supposed to travel with other party leaders on that fateful day in May when the Darbha attack took place. Luckily for him, he took the chopper and was saved. With the death of most of his prominent peers, Ajit Jogi has become the face of the Congress campaign in Chhattisgarh.

The elevation of Jogi has to some extent divided the INC camp. On one hand, Jogi has the backing of the Scheduled Caste, especially the Satnamis. With the reservations for Scheduled Castes reduced from 16 to 12 percent, they are angry with the incumbent government and the Congress is trying to cash in on it. Also since he is a practicing Christian, he is expected to get the support of Church in areas where it has considerable influence. However, naming him for the top post has its share of cons too. On various occasions, his name has figured in several scandals, the most famous being the allegation that he had procured a fake caste certificate in his early days. In fact, there is a certain section of the party that feels that he has a hand to play in the Naxal attack. They say that he may have given details of the movement of the Congress entourage to the Maoists. Nonetheless, he has managed to get over 40 seats for his followers all across the state. In about 15 constituencies where his suggestions were ignored, he is said to have fielded independents to assert his influence here. Meanwhile, his wife Renu Jogi has filed her papers from Kota whereas his son Amit Jogi will contest from Marwahi on a Congress ticket.

For more on Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections 2013, click here (Link)

THE STATES THAT MATTER: NOV-DEC 2013

THE DRESS-REHEARSAL BEFORE THE GENERAL ELECTIONS

The State elections - November/December 2014

As a politically eventful year nears its end, five states will go to the polls in November-December 2013, most of these seeing a straight fight between the two major parties in the country - the Congress and the BJP. On the eve of the impending battle in 2014, the upcoming elections are an excellent opportunity for the ruling UPA (United Progressive Alliance) to asses the performance of the central government in the last decade of its rule or as its detractors say, its misrule. Though anti-incumbency is on a all time high and the ratings of the PM and his party are falling at a rather alarming rate, the INC is putting its 'best foot' forward with Vice President Rahul Gandhi talking on issues that affect the aam admi like his mother's deteriorating health, the assassination of his father and grand mother in spite of their 'great' contribution towards the country and the startling claim of ISI's role in instigating violence in Muzzaffarabad. I must say that Baba is quite courageous; to go on the big stage and talk 'nonsense' in front of thousands of people hit by poverty, price rise and unemployment is no mean feat.

For the principal Opposition - the BJP, their prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is on a blitzkrieg, addressing rallies in these states, asking people to support his outfit while personally targeting the Prime Minister. While conveniently forgetting his administrative failure during the 2002 Godhra riots - the primary reason for the fall of the Vajpayee regime way back in 2004, he is being portrayed by the right wing as a 'Super Hero' who will rid India of all the problems that plague her. In a country which traditionally draws its strength from cultural, religious, regional and linguistic diversity, a 'divisive' leader like NaMo is a complete misfit. Needless to say, in a democracy like where its only the numbers that count, who actually cares about morals after all? And the BJP is no exception. Thankfully for the people, none of the constituents of the much hyped Third Front have any significant presence here. Although the General elections may be just about seven months away, we also need to realize that state elections are to a large extent fought on local issues and a great performance here may not be easy to replicate at the Center in the days to come. Nonetheless, a good show will for sure, boost the morale in the victor's camp.

In Delhi, Sheila Dixit will lead the charge for the Congress as she battles for a forth consecutive term. Although there seems to be wide spread dissatisfaction about her government, she still continues to be quite popular amongst the masses, something that her party is hoping will work in their favor. In spite of her personal image, the furor over the Delhi Common Wealth Games corruption scandal, the outrage following the Nirbhaya rape case and rising prices will make it extremely difficult for the Congress to cross the half way mark of 35 on its own. In fact, for the INC, winning this poll on its own will be like climbing the Everest without any oxygen cylinders. Meanwhile, the BJP should be credited for completely messing up the situation which till recently was heavily tilted on its side. The indecisiveness over its leadership here, something that we generally associate with the INC, has stolen the thunder off its campaign. The Aam Admi Party (AAP) born out of Anna Hazare movement's Lokpal movement is emerging as a serious contender as it is raking up the issues that affect the people of the capital. With Arvind Kejriwal training its gun over the two major national parties, the newly launched outfit may severely damage the prospects of both Sheila Dixit and Harsh Vardhan.

In Madhya Pradesh, CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan is relying on his work in the last seven years at the helm of affairs to win a third straight term in Bhopal for the BJP. I wonder whether not taing any strict action against the sand mafia here is also one of his many 'developmental' schemes. While trends seem to indicate that his party is likely to reach the magic mark of 115 quite comfortably, even though it may end up losing about 20 seats, the saffron brigade cannot be complacent and drop its guard. Hope the party remembers the disaster of 2004 when its complacency allowed the Congress to script a famous win. MP and young Turk Jyothiraditya Scindia, with his clean image and connectivity with the youth, is overlooking the elections for the Congress, which like its nemesis in Delhi seems to not have learnt any lessons from bitter experiences in the earlier elections. In neighboring Chattisgarh too, the charisma and the development work of Raman Singh is working for the BJP, in spite of the fact that parallel government of the Maoists is controlling several parts of the state. Unfortunately for the Congress, it lost most of its top brass in the ghastly Darbha attack and ever since has become directionless. Ajit Jogi, the former CM is its only hope in giving some competition to the BJP.

If media reports are to be believed, Vasundhara Raje Scindia is all set to return as the Chief Minister of Rajasthan for a second term, five years after losing power to Congress' Ashok Gelhot. Raje has done her homework well this time around, mending differences with other leaders in the state as well as those in Delhi. For the state government, fighting anti-incumbency that seems to be looming large, will be rather difficult. However, writing off a veteran like Gelhot can be a costly mistake. The last state to go to the polls is Mizoram in the North east where the Congress is presently in power. CM Lal Thanawla will face a potent threat from the Mizo National Front led by extremist turned politician Zoramathanga. As the fight for the five states intensifies in the coming days, expect fireworks, numerous allegations and counter allegations, many defections and several mammoth rallies to woo the voters. While local issues may ultimately decide the winners, there is no doubt they will impact the big general elections scheduled in May 2014 in more ways than one.