SHIV-RAJ IN MP - PART V

MADHYA PRADESH 2013: THE ISSUES THAT MATTER

THE FIRST TIME VOTERS

With nearly 24 lakh youngsters voting for the first time in the upcoming polls, both the BJP and the Congress are going all out to attract them. By pitting the 41 year old Jyothiraditya Scindia against the incumbent CM, the INC is hoping that his clean image will appease the younger sections of the electorate, helping it end the ten year long power drought in Bhopal. In his rallies, the young Scindia scion is seen talking about development and generation of jobs - two issues that matter most to the youth. Meanwhile, Shivraj Singh Chauhan is relying on his Gujarat counterpart to do the same for him. The tough talking and tech savvy Narendra Modi who is also the BJP' PM candidate has caught the attention of the young Indians across the country and Madhya Pradesh is no exception. The much publicized Gujarat model of development, something that the leader never gets tired of mentioning, has caught the attention of youngsters who see it as the way forward to a brighter future. With the younger voters expected to be an important factor in deciding the outcome of this elections, it is hardly surprising to see why the to parties are keen to impress the youth.

THE MINORITY VOTES

Unlike Modi, Chauhan is very popular with the minorities too. In fact, at one point of time when NDA was looking for a new PM candidate for the 2014 polls, some section including the patriarch L K Advani favored him considering his image as a good administrator as well as a secular leader. The Madhya Pradesh CM organizes Iftar parties at his official residence and has worn the skull cap on numerous occasions. No major communal clashes have been reported from the state in his tenure. At the same time, some decisions taken by him including the singing of Vande Mataram and teaching Surya Namaskar in schools have seen opposition from Muslim organizations. As the battle for Bhopal heats up, Shivraj is not taking any chances. Former MP Arif Beig has been given a ticket from Bhopal - North. On the other hand, the elevation of Narendra Modi as the BJP's official PM nominee has given the Congress a chance to play the communal card before the state elections. Digvijay Singh, known for taking jibes at the RSS will be the party's main leader to woo the Muslims.

SMALLER PARTIES

Whosoever is in power in Lucknow tends to get about five to ten seats in Madhya Pradesh too. As such, while the Samajwadi Party (SP) had 7 seats in 2003 polls, they dropped to a single seat five years down the line as the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) grew from two to seven. As such, the SP is expected to do well in comparison with its rival in the areas adjoining Uttar Pradesh. CM Akhilesh is said to be particularly focusing on two regions - Chambal and Bundelkhand and is hoping to snatch about 15 seats from here. The party to look out for will be the Gondwana Ganatantra Party (GPP). Established in 1991, the GPP aims to create a separate state of Gondwana in Central India to support the cause if the Gondli people. It presently has a single seat in the state assembly. The regional outfit has decided to join hands with the the JD(U). Several rebels from the BJP and the Congress have also joined it. It is likely that the GPP may get up to 5 seats this time around. The Left Front will field candidates from 33 constituencies in the state.

For more on the Madhya Pradesh Elections 2013, click here (Link)

SHIV-RAJ IN MP? - PART IV

MADHYA PRADESH 2013: THE ISSUES THAT MATTER

DEVELOPMENT

Nobody can deny the fact that Madhya Pradesh, a state that has lagged behind others in terms of development has made some worth while progress under the leadership of Shivraj Singh Chauhan in the last eight years. When he ascended the chair way back in late 2005, he was not a well known face in local politics. Besides, he was facing the wrath of his bete noire Uma Bharati - the firebrand leader who, after being sidelined for openly taking on the top leadership, launched her own outfit. In a bid to counter the challenges facing him and to bolster his personal image, Chauhan launched two populist schemes - free TV sets and rice at one rupee per kilo which were mass hits. Then came the numerous welfare schemes, many of which got praises even from his harshest critics. These include the Ladli Lakshmi Scheme, the state government buys NSC worth Rs 30,000 over a period of five years after the birth of a girl child. While the parents get some fixed amount at the end of a certain time periods, they girl may get up to Rs 1 lakh after she turns 21 years old. The Kanyadhan Yojna gives Rs 7,500 to poor families during their daughter's wedding whereas the Janani Suraksha Yojna provides all assistance to pregnant mothers till child birth. Data available shows that the implementation of these schemes have benefited thousands of people so far.

Traditionally classified as a BIMARU state, there is no doubt that Madhya Pradesh has improved under the tenure of Chauhan. During the days of Digvijay Singh, the conditions of the roads in several regions of MP was pathetic to say the least. On the contrary, the incumbent CM has added over 90,000 km of roads in the last eight years - one of his biggest USPs. Of course, there is a lot of scope for improvement even now. Another issue on which he has delivered is power generation. Ever since he took over, the state's power production has grown by 10,000 MW. While water supply remains a concern in several parts, the situation has improved to some extent. Agriculture has received an impetus, especially in the Vindhya region with the construction of two key projects - Banasagar and Gulab Sagar. Wheat production has grown manifolds, and MP is today, the third highest producer of this crop, trailing Punjab and Haryana. At the same time, several IT companies have decided to open their branches in an IT Park in Indore after the CM promised to offer them certain concessions besides reducing bureaucratic hassles. Though several scandals have rocked his government at regular intervals, Shivraj is perceived by the electorate as a non-corrupt leader who has delivered as far as bijli, sadak aur paani is concerned.

ANTI-INCUMBENCY

While the BJP believes that it will comfortably cross the 116 mark for the third time, history seems to suggest otherwise. Ever since the state was placed under President's Rule in 1993, there has been a change in regime after every ten years in Bhopal. Diggi Raja occupied the CM's chair between 1993 to 2003 and the saffron party has ruled since then. As such, it will hardly be surprising if the masses give the Congress another shot, especially after it projected a new and a more credible face. Besides, for all the talks of development that has taken place here under Chauhan, the results are still only satisfactory. While road network has expanded, several villages continue to be inaccessible; water scarcity continues to be a major problem especially in the rural hinterland; the murder of environmental activist Shehla Masood and the failure to check the illegal activities of the sand mafia have put a big question mark on the intentions of the administration. Opinion polls suggest that the general conception amongst the farmers is that the incumbent government could have done a lot more to help them. In spite of all the schemes launched to provide women empowerment, Madhya Pradesh has recorded the highest cases of rapes against women. This is certainly a big embarrassment for Shivraj.

Another problem for the ruling party is that names of several of its ministers have figured either in corruption scandals or courted controversies of some sort. The CM's wife Sadhna Singh has been accused by the Opposition of buying four dumpers by specifying a fake residential address and then lending it to a cement company. The sodomy case involving former Finance Minister Raghavji, just few days prior to the polls is a big blow. Though the Vidisha strongman has been expelled, the damage seems to be done. Kailash Vijaywargiya who is in-charge of Industries has courted trouble time and again including when he defended the controversial God man Asaram Babu. Bhopal MLA Dhruvanarayan Singh's name figured in the Shehla Massod murder case. Other prominent leaders in this notorious list includes former CM Babulal Gaur, Animal Husbandry Minister Ajay Vishnoi, Medical Education Minister Anup Mishra and Education Minister Archana Chitnis. Twenty eight out of the 143 BJP MLAs have criminal cases pending against them. However, the Congress cannot claim the moral high ground here since 21 of its own men are tainted.

REBELLION

The factor that could take the victory away from the BJP is rebellion and defection amongst its ranks. In a bid to counter anti-incumbency, the party was forced into taking some tough decisions which may boomerang on it. Several sitting MLAs, including few cabinet ministers have been denied tickets. On the other hand, protests were staged by the cadre against the official party nominees in many places. While some of these dissidents are likely to contest as independents, many may join the Congress or smaller parties. Either way, it is Chauhan who will be hurt. In Ratlam constituency, party workers who were unhappy with the nomination of Chetan Kashyap marched to the house of former state Home Minister Himmat Kothari and convinced him to contest as an independent. Realizing that its 'bad' choices could be the deciding factor in the upcoming polls, the saffron outfit is trying hard to woo back the rebels. It was believed that former minister Raghavji who was shown the door few months ago was lobbying for a ticket for his daughter. As his demand was not met, it was speculated that he would rebel and hurt the BJP in at least five seats in the Vidisha region. However, after a behind the doors meeting with Sushma Swaraj, the veteran leader is said to be keeping a low profile. Meanwhile, Shivraj Chauhan has filed his nomination from Vidisha too.

In the Congress camp too, reports of dissidence have emerged. Vice President of the state committee Manak Aggarwal resigned from his post after he was denied a ticket from Hoshangabad. He has accused senior party leader Suresh Pachouri of conniving with the sand mafia to scuttle his chances. Ajay Singh - the Leader of Opposition in the out going legislature was believed to be upset with  Scindia & Kamal Nath faction for ignoring him while deciding party nominees in his home town. Naresh Malviya, another Congressman committed suicide after being denied a nomination from Agar. In Silwani, workers went on a rampage after Devendra Patel - a sitting MLA from the BJP who defected to the Congress was given a ticket. In the early days of the campaign it was believed that the two clans in the MP Congress - one led by the former CM Digvijay Singh and the other under young Jyothiraditya Scindia were fighting over the ticket allocation to their supporters.Luckily for them, it seems that the INC leaders here have realized that the only way to beat the Chauhan regime here is to be united. Just on the eve of the elections, it has been reported that all prominent state leaders were consulted before the final list of candidates was made public.

For more on the Madhya Pradesh Elections 2013, click here (Link)

SHIV-RAJ IN MP? - PART III

MADHYA PRADESH 2013: THE ISSUES THAT MATTER

LEADERSHIP DEBATE

Riding on his charisma, the BJP is trying to make the upcoming polls a straight contest between their Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan and the Congress. In fact, this makes a lot of sense for the ruling party, considering the fact that the Opposition is split in two distinct sections. A soft spoken leader who is identified as the man who ushered in some sort of development in a relatively 'backward' state in his eight year long term, Chauhan enjoys immense popularity amongst the masses. His welfare schemes targeting the women and the poor have made him extremely popular and the saffron brigade is hoping that he can win a third straight term for them. Opinion polls carried out by several organizations have shown that the CM's ratings are quite high considering the fact that he has been in power for eight years. However, the reality on the ground is that as the polling date comes closer, the fight is getting too close to call. Large number of rebels in the fray could just do the damage that the Congress has not been able to do on its own. As such, apart from his constituency of Budhni, Chauhan has filed his papers from Vidisha - a move to cut down the influence of former Finance Minister Raghavji who is the sitting MLA from here. It was reported that Raghavji was hoping that the party would nominate his daughter from here.

Keen to project a fresh face to take on the heavy weight Chauhan, the Congress named Union Minister Jyothiraditya Scindia as the head of campaign in Madhya Pradesh. Representing the Guna constituency, the clean image of the young leader and the good will earned by his his late father, the much beloved Madhavrao Scindia who died in a tragic plane crash in 2001 has worked in his favor. However, in the run up to the polls, media reports coming from the Congress camp indicated that two distinct factions had emerged with each trying to out do the other in the race to get tickets for their supporters. Jyothiraditya and his colleague Kamal Nath had ganged up against former CM Digvijay Singh and his loyalist - Ajay Singh and Kantilal Bhuria. Luckily for the Opposition, it seems that the Scindia scion and former royal of Raghogarh have mended their fences in the last after the intervention of the Gandhis. Off late, the INC is making inroads in Chambal and Baghelkhand regions where it is expected to do well. The general perception is that the Congress would have decimated the ruling party had the Gwalior scion been named as its CM candidate bout an year back. However is it too little, too late? Well, only time will tell. 

MODI vs RAHUL - THE LITMUS PAPER TEST 

While it is true that state elections are fought primarily on local issues, the impact that the upcoming assembly polls will have on the General Elections in 2014 cannot be entirely ruled out. Poll pundist and political observers have dubbed these polls as the semi-finals before the clash of the titans in next May. There are two factors that make Madhya Pradesh extremely important in this context. Firstly, it is one of the few states that sees a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress - the two major parties in the Indian political scene. The Left Front and its allies in the much hyped Third Front have no support base here what so ever. Secondly, the state sends 29 MPs to the Lower House of the Parliament and a spectacular win here will give the victor a head start over the other in the big battle seven months down the line. The last General Elections was a close fight with the BJP winning 16 seats whereas the INC took home 12 as the BSP registered victory in one constituency.

Narendra Modi - the BJP's PM nominee addressed a rally in Bhopal on 25^th September titled the 'Karyakarta Mahakumbh' which some claim to be is the biggest political congregation of its kind in the world where he heaped praises on the performance of the Chauhan regime. The Jhansi leg of his 'Vijay Shankhand' tour of the neighboring Uttar Pradesh also drew large crowds from adjoining districts of MP due to its geographical proximity. The Gujarat CM is expected to campaign here from 18^th November to 22^nd November. On similar lines, Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi kick started his Madhya Pradesh campaign with the 'Satta Parivartan' rally in Sagar where he tore into the state government for failing on parameters like poverty, hunger and rural health while ignoring the region of Bagelkhand. This was later followed by another big gathering at Indore on the same day where he promised to make the city the economic hub of the state if voted to power. With both the PM nominees battling it out in the heart of India, the results here will be a good opportunity for both the BJP and the Congress to asses their preparedness before May 2014.

For more on the Madhya Pradesh Elections 2013, click here (Link)

SHIV-RAJ IN MP? - PART II

MADHYA PRADESH 2013: CAN THE BJP CLAIM A HAT TRICK?

If the Opinion polls across all channels are to be believed then Madhya Pradesh CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan is leading his party to a historic third consecutive term in the state assembly polls in November 2013. The saffron outfit has been in power in the state since 2003, when the dynamic Hindutva icon, the firebrand Uma Bharati routed the Congress under Digvijay Singh as the BJP won nearly seventy five per cent of the seats. However a year later, after an arrest warrant was issued for her role in the Hubli riot case, she was asked to resign and was replaced by her Home Minister Babulal Gaur. In 2005, Gaur was himself replaced by Shivraj, whose name has become synonymous with the party in much of the state. For all those who accused him of reaping the benefits of the hard work put in by Bharati, Chauhan won a second straight victory here in 2008 despite of Bharati's rebellion. In fact, at one point of time, his name was even being considered in party circles for the job of BJP's Prime Minister nominee in an attempt to prevent the splitting of the NDA on the candidature of Narendra Modi. Although he may have lost the race to lead the BJP's coalition at the Center to his more flamboyant counterpart from Gujarat, the incumbent Chief Minister is ready in the battle for Bhopal. 

Like so many of the leaders in the Opposition today, Shivraj's foray into politics began with the underground movement against the Emergency in 1977. A four time MP from Vidisha, his entry into state politics began in the 2003 assembly polls where he was pitted against Congress heavyweight and the sitting CM Diggi Raja from his stronghold of Raghogarh. Though Uma led BJP won a splendid victory; though Chauhan himself lost the polls, his courageous step had won him many admirers, especially in the party high command. After Bharati resigned in 2004, Gaur was made the CM, a stop gap arrangement to keep various factions happy. Serving as the BJP President back then, he was chosen for the top job in spite of him not being on good terms with Bharati. Nonetheless, the soft spoken Shivraj built up his image, primarily on the development work carried by him and managed to see off the rebellion of his bete noire. And then came the biggest moment of his political career in 2008 when he scripted a historic win for his party, winning about 140 seats. This victory enhanced his reputation beyond Bhopal and as the leadership debate heated up in the saffron outfit ahead of the 2014 Lok Sabha, his name was being considered because of his clean image. Although the tough talking Gujarat CM Narendra Modi took away the cake, Chauhan will certainly not mind as long as he is at the helm of affairs in Bhopal.

There are several reasons that have contributed to the spectacular rise of the incumbent CM in the last eight years. A not so well known face in political circles prior to 2005, his development schemes aimed specially at women and the poorer sections of the society have been a mass hit. In a state that has seen very little worth while development over the years, Shivraj is looked upon as a leader who delivers on his promise. Unlike the Lalus and the Mulayums who have a support base amongst certain sections of the society, Chauhan's popularity has transcended such barriers. In fact, if the BJP comes to power here again in 2013, it will largely be due to the popularity of their leader. Another feather in his cap has been the manner in which he nullified the influence of Uma Bharati within such a small span of time. After the appointment of Shivraj, a furious Uma walked out of the BJP and founded a new party - the Bharatiya Janshakti Party. Although there were speculation that several MLAs would join her endangering the government, Chauhan managed to complete his term. And then in the next assembly polls, as the new outfit managed to get just five seats, Singh won a landslide. Three years later, by the time that the sanyasi returned back to the BJP in 2011, Chauhan had become one of the most popular faces of the party in the Hindi heartland.

For the BJP which was supposed to sweep MP according to all Opinion polls till some time back, the task seem be getting difficult by the day. The appointment of the junior Scindia as its campaign chief here is helping the Congress. Jyotiraditya's image as a youth leader and the goodwill of father - the late Madhavrao Scindia who are working in his favor. The internal feud between the two distinct camps within the party - the Jyotiraditya & Kamal Nath camp and the Digvijay Singh led group has been put on the back burner after intervention of the Gandhis. Reports now suggest that tickets are being distributed taking all the top leaders into account to prevent rebellion as far as possible. On the other hand the case of sexual assault against the former Finance Minister Raghavji who has been lately expelled from the party; the perception of the regime going soft on Asaram Bapu accused of raping a minor; the callousness of the administration that led to Ratangarh Mata Temple stampede that left 115 people dead and rising cases of atrocities against women are likely to hurt the BJP badly. What would go against the party though is the large number of rebels in the fray who are expected to dent its prospects across several seats. In a bid to combat anti-incumbency, many serving MLAs, including a few ministers have been denied ticket and they look determined to make a point by indulging in anti-party activities.

Knowing that anti-incumbency will be a factor, especially since the BJP has been in power here for two consecutive terms, the party has been pretty strict in selecting its candidates. The state BJP President Narendra Kumar Tomar and Organization head Arvind Menon, both of whom are said to be close to the CM are helping him in this arduous task. Amongst the heavy weights, Shivraj Singh Chauhan will seek re-election from Budni apart from sentering the fray in Vidisha, a move seen to cut the influence of Raghoji. Former CM and the Urban Minister in the state cabinet Gaur will file nominations from Govindpur. Prominent minister who have managed to make the cut include Home Minister Uma Shankar Gupta (Bhopal - South West), Industries Minister Kailash Vijaywagiya (Mhow) and Health Minister Dr. Narottam Mishra (Datia). To make sure that it maximizes its numbers, three serving MPs namely Yashodhara Raje Scindia, Bhupendra Singh and K D Deshmukh have been asked to contest from Shivpuri, Khurai and Khatangi. Taking a cue from the Congress, BJP too has fielded kin of several leaders including Uma Bharati's nephew Rahul Singh (Kharagpur), the sons of former CMs Sunderlal Patwa and Kailash Joshi and Anup Mishra - the nephew of former PM Vajpayee. Former Memebr of Parliament and Muslim face Arif Beg has been allocated a ticket from Bhopal - North. Several sitting MLAs who have been denied tickets are expected to contest independently or join rival outfits in the coming days.

For more on the Madhya Pradesh Elections 2013, click here (Link)

SHIV-RAJ IN MP? - PART I

MADHYA PRADESH 2013: CONGRESS - A DIVIDED HOUSE

Dubbed as the 'Heart' of Incredible India, the mega state of Madhya Pradesh will go to the polls on 25^th November later this year. Like in neighboring Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, what makes the elections here extremely important, especially ahead of the big 2014 General elections is that it will witness a direct fight between the ruling BJP and the opposition Congress. While the saffron brigade has been in power in the state for the last decade, the INC is heading a coalition regime at the Center for two consecutive terms. With BJP's Prime Ministerial nominee Narendra Modi and Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi addressing massive rallies here, it can be concluded that the 2013 state elections are been increasingly seen as the semi final just ahead of the Lok Sabha polls which is scheduled for next May. The pundits have given a clear edge to the incumbent CM, predicting that the party may replicate here the success that it saw in Gujarat riding on the popularity of Shivraj Singh Chauhan. However, by putting the dynamic and young Jyotiraditya Scindia in charge of its campaign in the state, the Congress is fighting back and may well pull off the biggest upset of 2013.

While the BJP claims that the development carried by the incumbent government will ensure its victory, what is making life easier for Chauhan is the lack of unity in the Congress camp. Although the party high command - the highest authority in the party has deputed Jyotiraditya Scindia - the son of the former Union Minister and Scindia scion Madhavrao to lead its battle, the feud amongst the prominent leaders of the state has not yet ended and could jeopardize the process of ticket distribution. Ahead of the polls, the Congress has split into two distinct groups, with each trying to out do the other, often resulting in the washing of dirty linen in public. Scindia is said to have teamed up with Union Minister Kamal Nath who is coordinating the campaign. On the other hand, Digvijay Singh - the Rakhi Sawant of Indian politics, who is serving a self imposed 10 year exile from the state after his rout at the hands of Uma Bharati in 2003 is also flexing his muscles, using state party President Kantilal Bhuria and the Leader of Opposition in the incumbent assembly - Ajay Singh as his proxies.

The fighting has become so bitter that it was reported that Diggi Raja was not allowed to attend a press conference being addressed by Scindia. Kantilal Bhuria is said to have had an audience with Sonia Gandhi after his advise over the selection of candidates in his home town of Jhabua was completely ignored. Die hard fans of the INC will point out that INC has never has faced similar situations in the past in other states. In fact, on the eve of the Uttarkhand polls held last year, the party was divided into over five groups, each headed by a Chief Ministerial hopeful. Considering the allegations of corruption against several BJP leaders, most notably the former CM Pokriyal, the Congress messed up the whole thing big time and managed to win just by a single seat in an election which it was speculated to sweep. However the scenario in MP is drastically different. The BJP here is in solid form and reports on the ground indicate that the charisma of Chauhan who was once being touted as the party's contender for the top job in 2014 is working in its favor.

Meanwhile the decision to appoint Scindia junior at the helm of affairs by passing veterans like Bhuria and long time MLA Ajay Singh seems to be a calculated risk. Jyotiraditya's father Madhavrao Scindia who died in a tragic air incident in 2001 was one of the most influential political leader from 1981 until his death besides being the titular chief of the erstwhile princely state of Gwalior. Besides his father's legacy, the party is hoping that his image as a youth leader will be a hit amongst the over 50 lakh young voters. With unemployment remaining high and MP still trailing behind in key areas like development, the youth vote might be the game changer for the Congress. The first list of candidates released last week includes a mix of sitting MLAs, prominent leaders from Youth Congress and finally, in continuation of the party's tradition, kin of several party veterans. Prominent candidates include Ajay Singh (Churat), his deputy in the state legislature Bisahulal Singh (Annupur), Satyadev Katare (Ater), Narayan Tripathi (Maihar), Ravi Joshi (Khargone), Bala Bachchan (Rajpur) and Surajbhan Singh Solanki (Harsud). Digvijay's son Jai Vardhan has filed his papers from Raghogarh without waiting for the Congress to name him. The party is also likely to benefit from large number of BJP rebels who are expected to hurt the saffron outfit's chances.

For more on the Madhya Pradesh Elections 2013, click here (Link)