AKHADA - Part III

THINGS TO WATCH OUT FOR IN HARYANA POLLS 2014

1. Will the dual power center hurt the Congress? For ten years, Bhupinder Singh Hooda was the undisputed leader of the grand old party in Haryana. For the trust that the Gandhi family out in him, he delivered; two consecutive wins in the state besides sending 9 MPs to the Parliament when the UPA was in power in New Delhi. The defeat of the INC at the hands of the BJP in the recently concluded Lok Sabha polls has put a question mark over the future of the incumbent CM. The murmurs of discontent against Hooda that were brewing within the state unit of the Congress for some time now are now out in the open. After Ajay Yadav threatened to quit the party if it projected Hooda as its CM candidate, the Congress has constituted a new committee to put up a unite face. In what is seen as a move to cut dissidents, Yadav has been made the head of the INC's campaign in its bid to win a third straight term. Another Hooda baiter, former MP Kumari Selja too is a part of this group. However, to balance the power equations, the CM and his son Deepak who is currently the only Congress MP from Haryana too have been included in the committee. Now, the problem with such an arrangement is that it has created two camps within the state unit. This could seriously jeopardize the process of candidate selection with each faction trying to get nominations for its followers. Moreover, in case the INC wins, selecting the next Haryana CM could be next to impossible for the Congress.

2. Is BJP the 'B team' of the Congress? Remember that time, earlier this year when the BJP used to accuse the Aam Admi Party (AAP) of being the 'B team' of the Congress. A look at the BJP in the state and you will realize that a large number of its leaders here are political turncoats who have switched sides ahead of the polls. In the 2009 assembly elections, the saffron outfit won just 4 seats. In other words, it was one of the many minor players in Haryana. However, the elevation of former Gujarat CM Narendra Modi as the outfit's Prime Ministerial candidate changed the fortunes of the party. Of the seven seats that the saffronists won here in May this year, at least three including Ro Inderjit Singh (Rewari) and Dharambir Singh (Bhiwani) had changed sides just before the polls. The number of leaders from other parties joining the BJP has only increased post the NDA's spectacular victory. However, the big question is whether the party has a strong face in the state who can get them the votes, especially after the split in the alliance with HJC's Kuldeep Bishnoi. Also, in case the BJP wins the polls, who will head the next regime in the state. Besides, like with the Congress, it is likely that the party splits into several camps, each headed by one of these newly joined leaders, thereby making ticket distribution a difficult process.

3. The Race for the Third Spot: With the two national parties battling it out for the top two spots, it remains to be seen who will finish third in the Haryana state polls. If the election throws up a hung assembly, like in 2009, the regional player with the highest seats could dictate terms. Probably, the strongest contender is the Chautala led INLD. In spite of the fact that its supremo is behind the bars, the Lok Dal is seeing a surge; it won two seats in the last parliamentary polls with its leader Dushyant beating the HJC chief. That brings us to Kuldeep Bishnoi, the son of former state CM Bhajan Lal who has broken off all ties with the BJP after it refused to keep its word on a 45:45 seat arrangement made prior to the Lok Sabha 2014. Although it lost both of the parliamentary seats it contest in May this year, Bishnoi continues to remain popular. In a recent poll, he was voted as the second most popular CM candidate. Moreover, he has joined hands with Venod Sharma's Jan Chetna Party (JCP). Former state home minister Gopal Kanda of the HLC too is eyeing this third spot. The BSP is seen by many as a strong contender and is expected to do well, especially in areas where there is a sizable Dalit population.

4. Did AAP make the right decision? The Aam Admi Party (AAP) which was born out of the Anna Hazare led anti-corruption crusade finds itself in a big mess thanks to a host of blunders by its top leadership. After storming Delhi, Kejriwal's decision to resign from the government following its failure to pass the Lokpal Bill after being in power for just 49 days was seen by many as an act of cowardice. Instead of concentrating on some key seats in the Lok Sabha, the AAP nominated candidates in most of the seats through out the country only managed to win just 4. Moreover, differences in opinion amongst top leaders has further put question marks over the future of the outfit. At this juncture, I think AAP's decision of not contesting the Haryana state polls is a blunder. Kejriwal led party has a good presence both in neighboring Punjab and in Delhi. As such, there are high chances that AAP may do well here. Also, corruption is a big issue in the state polls and the outfit could have used this as an opportunity to grab a few seats.


For more posts on the Haryana 2014 State Elections, click here (Link)

AKHADA - Part II

ISSUES AHEAD OF THE 2014 HARYANA STATE POLLS

The INC's decimation in the recently concluded parliamentary elections, especially in Haryana has shaken the political scenario in the state. After being in power here for a decade, incumbent CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda was left red-faced as the INC managed to win just one seat; his son Deepak was the lone party candidate to make the cut. Meanwhile, the saffron outfit is on a surge. After painting the state in orange, the BJP 's poll prospects have been further boosted after several prominent leaders from the INC and the INLD have joined it. So confident is the party of its chances that it has refused to 'honor' its electoral accord with the HJC. Crying foul, Bishnoi now has tied up with Venod Sharma's JCP and vowed to teach the BJP a lesson. With the polls to the state assembly being scheduled on October 15, let us have a look at the issues that are likely to play in the minds of the masses as they vote to decide who form the next regime in Haryana.

In a party that is not known to give a free hand to its state leaders, Haryana CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda is an exception. In spite of the fact that even a Gandhi loyalist like Kumari Selja has been accusing the incumbent CM of 'neglecting' her constituency of Ambala for long, the son of former freedom fighter Ranbir Hooda has largely had a free hand in the state. After all, he was the one who led the Congress to a famous victory in 2004 polls and then managed to stay on to power for a second consecutive term by 'poaching' MLAs from Bishnoi's HJC and joining hands with some independent. Moreover, the state contributed nine MPs to both innings of the UPA government. Sadly though, all that seems to have changed, quite drastically in the last six months. The anti-incumbency sentiment is at a all time high. After the drubbing the Lok Sabha polls, several leaders have come out and openly hit out at the CM with some even crossing over to the BJP. In a recent rally at Kaithal that he attended along with PM Narendra Modi, he was booed by what he later termed as a crowd comprising of BJP supporters. While there may be some element of truth in the CM's remarks, there is little doubt that his popularity is at its lowest.

Anna Hazare's crusader against corruption way back in August 2011 shook the conscience of the nation and ever since, it has become one of the biggest issues in all polls in the country. In Haryana, a slew of corruption allegations against the ruling regime has put the Congress on the back foot. Perhaps, the most famous, rather 'infamous' is the one involving Sonia Gandhi's son-in-law Robert Vadra. He has been accused of purchasing land in Haryana at throw-away prices causing severe embarrassment for the INC and its top family. On the other hand, the main Opposition in the state, Chautala's Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) too is in the dock after its top two leaders - former CM and party supremo Om Prakash Chautala and his son Ajay Singh were sent behind the bars after being convicted in the Teacher's Recruitment Scam in January 2013. With the BJP making this as their main poll plank like it did in the General Polls earlier this year, the two main political parties in Haryana have a lot to answer.

Ahead of the state elections, the ruling Congress is battling dissidents within its ranks. Former Rajya Sabha MP Venod Sharma who was known to be close to Hooda has left the party to form the JCP. Kumari Selja has become more vocal in her differences with the CM whereas Jat strongman Birendra Singh has joined the saffron camp. Minister in state cabinet Ajay Yadav had threatened to resign from the party if it projected Hooda as its CM candidate. The party has constituted a new committee and has been put the five time MLA from Rewari in charge of its campaign. Similarly, the arrest of its top two has left a power vacuum in the INLD. It is up to the remaining Chautalas - Abhay Chautala and his nephew Dushyant to oversee the outfit's campaign. Meanwhile, the one cause of concern for the BJP is that it does not have a strong leadership in the state. Most of its big leaders are political turncoats from other parties and it remains to be seen if they can work as a cohesive unit to win the elections. Even if the saffron outfit does win a majority on its own, selecting the CM will be an arduous task. HJC chief Kuldeep Bishnoi does not have any such problems, that is if it can get the numbers.

If the state assembly polls throws up a hung assembly, like in 2009, then the role of the regional parties will be interesting to see. After severing ties with the BJP, Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC) leader Kuldeep Bishnoi has forged an alliance with Jan Chetna Party (JCP) chief Venod Sharma to fight the polls together. Sharma is the father of Manu Sharma, the main accused in the Jessica Lal murder. He will be hoping that like in the last assembly, he emerges as the 'Kingmaker'. However, for that he has to learn from his mistakes and make sure that he keeps his flock together. Former state home minister Gopal Kanda whose name figured in the suicide of air hostess Geetika Sharma has also floated his own outfit - the Haryana Lokhit Party (HLP). He has announced a host of populist measures if voted to power. Former Congress MLA Arvind Sharma has been projected by the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) as its CM candidate. The Aam Admi Party (AAP) has decided not to contest the state polls but has promised to expose corrupt candidates belonging to all parties.

Finally, the caste equations play a key role in state politics and this time it is not going to be any different. Jats are the largest community here and constitute 27 percent of the total population. The leadership of the two big parties here including incumbent CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda of the INC and the Chautalas of the INLD belong to this caste. The inclusion of the Jats in the central OBC quota by the UPA II is likely to help the Congress. The BJP is pinning its hopes on its Jat leader Chaudhary Birender Singh. Kuldeep Bishnoi is eyeing the non-Jat votes, including the 19 percent Dalit votes. The ruling party's decision to form the Haryana State Gurudwara Prabandak Committee (HSGPC) is clearly seen as a move to woo the 6 percent Sikh votes.


For more posts on the Haryana 2014 State Elections, click here (Link)

HARYANA & LOK SABHA 2014

THE TRIPARTITE STRUGGLE

The agrarian state of Haryana, like the neighboring Delhi is all set to witness a three way contest for the 10 parliamentary seats in the state. The Congress has been in power here since its thumping victory in the 2005 assembly polls. An year earlier, it had swept the national polls, winning a staggering 9 out of 10 seats. Its dominance continued, as it managed to equal its tally of 2004 in the 15^th Lok Sabha too. Later that year, it ended up as the single largest party in the legislature, bagging 40 seats. However, a lot has changed ever since. With the UPA government failing on every front and simmering anti-incumbency against the Hooda regime, it is speculated that the Congress will drop several seats. The BJP has already tied with Kuldeep Bishnoi's HJC. Moreover, several top INC leaders in the state have already switched their loyalties over to the saffron camp. Another contender is the AAP. After its spectacular success in the capital, Kejriwal's outfit is keen to make an impact here. Political analyst and commentator Yogendra Yadav will be leading the party's electoral campaign here. The INLD might be down after its leader and former state CM Om Prakash Chautala was sent to the Tihar jail for his role in the Recruitment scam but it may still be able to spring some surprises. Besides, with the next elections to the state assembly scheduled later this year and multiple parties in the fray, you can expect the General Elections to be closely fought one.

ISSUES

(1) The failures of UPA II: The Congress led coalition at the Centre has been a total failure, more so in its second term. The myriad scams that have come to the limelight including 2G, Commonwealth and Coalgate have led to bad press, especially at a time when the nation has risen up against corruption. High inflation rate and price rise have hurt the common man. All thanks to policy paralysis, the over all India growth story has been punctured and Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) have reduced. Though Manmohan Singh has already announced his retirement from active politics in 2014, the Congress is clearly on the back foot.

(2) Ant-incumbency against Hooda regime: Like the UPA in New Delhi, the Bhoopender Singh Hooda regime has been in power in Haryana for the last decade. However, on the flip side, there is a strong anti-incumbency wave in the state. The several land scams including the one involving Sonia Gandhi's son-in-law Robert Vadra has become a major embarrassment for the party. The role of the state government in suppressing the honest IAS officer Ashok Khemka who played a key role in exposing the Vadra-DLF land deals and the filing of a chargesheet against him in this regards has been seen as an attempt to 'silence' him. The poor infrastructure, especially in urban areas like Gurgaon Karnal, Rohtak and Ambala is another issue which is likely to hit the ruling party hard in the upcoming polls in urban areas. Moreover, unlike the last state polls, the other parties namely the BJP and the AAP have strengthened their positions ahead of the big elections, posing a significant challenge to the incumbent regime.

(3) The Khaps and the Caste Equation: Now there are two things that play a key role in the Haryanvi society - the khap and the caste. In fact, such is the power of these village panchayats that in spite of the courts questioning their authority in arbitrating over disputes, none of the political parties have openly criticized it. Even the 'anarchist' Arvind Kejriwal was rather soft on them. Aware of the kind of influence these local bodies hold over the people, parties are trying hard to woo khap leaders. After all, in many villages, it is common for people to vote according to the directives issued by these sabhas.

Like the khaps, caste is an important factor which decides the way people vote, at least in the rural parts of the state. The Jats are the most dominant community in the politics of Haryana. With the Union government including them in the central OBC list, the INC is hopeful that the move will help it in all 10 seats in the state. The Chamars, the Banias and the Khatris have significant presence in some parts of the state. The BJP will target the Brahmins who constitute about 7 percent of the state's population. Other important communities who could decide the outcome of these polls in specific seats include the Sikhs, the Balmikis, the Rajputs, the Gujjars, the Sainis and the Meo Muslims.

CONTENDERS

(1) Congress: After being in power, both in the state and at the Centre for the last decade, the grand old party will find it extremely difficult to even get half the number of seats it won in the last two General Elections. The problem for the Congress is that many of its veterans have joined the BJP hoping to benefit from the NaMo wave. Also, CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda knows that the result will have an enormous bearing on who wins the next state assembly polls, slated later this year. Compounding his problem here is the fact that unlike in 2009, the saffron outfit is gaining momentum. Even the AAP is expect to do well in seats in the vicinity of Delhi. Meanwhile, the party has re-nominated all six of its sitting MPs who have continued with it including industrialist Navin Jindal (Kurukshetra), the CM's son Deepender Hooda (Rohtak) and Shruti Choudhary (Bhiwani-Mahenderagarh) - the grand daughter of former CM Bhansi Lal.

(2) Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): After drawing a blank in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP is expected to make big gains in Haryana this time around. However, one has to realize that the outfit does not have a very powerful presence here. In 1999 when it did well here, it fought in alliance with Chautla's INLD. As such, it is not surprising that the party has given tickets to as many as four Congress rebels. These include the former Union Minister Rao Inderjit Singh (Gurgaon) who was at loggerheads with the CM and had even raised questions over Robert Vadra's land deals. Farmer leader Om Prakash Dhankar who heads the party's Kishan Morcha has been rewarded for the role as the national convener of the 'Statue of Unity' which is a pet project of Narendra Modi and given a ticket from Rohtak. Other nominees from the saffron camp include Ratan Lal Kattaria (Ambala) and Krishan Pal Gurjar (Faridabad).

The BJP will fight the polls in alliance with Haryana Janhit Congress - Bhajan Lal (HJC-BL). In the Hisar by-elections held in 2011, following the death of his father and sitting MP Bhajan Lal, party chief Kuldeep Bishnoi humiliated the Congress, winning nearly 2 lakh votes more than Congress' Jai Prakash. Bishnoi declared his support for NDA's PM nominee Narendra Modi in September 2013. According to the pre-poll pact with the BJP, the regional outfit has fielded two candidates - Bishnoi from Hisar and former deputy CM Chander Mohan from Karnal. It was speculated that Venod Sharma, a former state minister who had left the Congress would join the HJC and contest from Karnal. Venod is the father of Manu Sharma who had killed Jessica Lal in 1999; on several occasions the senior Sharma has been accused of using his political clout to influence witnesses in the case. In fact, BJP leader Sushma Swaraj had been vocal about her dissatisfaction over this move. As such, the HJC had no choice but to turn down the influential Brahmin leader.

(3) Indian National Lok Dal (INLD): The year 2014 will decide if the INLD does have any future in the state. The party received a big jolt in January last year as party chief and former CM Om Prakash Chautala along with his elder son Ajay were sentenced to jail for ten year for their involvement in the Recruitment Scam. The party received another shock as its offer for a tie-up was turned down by former ally, the BJP. In fact, the saffronist decided to join hands with the Chautala's bete noire - the HJC. Though it may not be as strong as it was in the late 90s, the regional outfit still enjoys support in the rural areas. The INLD's performance in 2014 Lok Sabha and the upcoming state elections will decide if it continues to be an important player in state politics. It will also be a test of Abhay Chautala's leadership

(4) Aam Admi Party (AAP): After exposing the Vadra-DLF land scam, AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal will be hoping to emulate the success that he enjoyed in the Delhi state polls in neighboring Haryana too. With corruption being a major electoral issue, the party's chances look bright. One of its top leaders Yogendra Yadav is set to contest from Gurgaon. Anti-graft crusader and upright IAS officer Ashok Khemka is AAP's mascot in the state.

PAST PERFORMANCE

The following chart shows the results of the last five Lok Sabha elections in the state. In 1996, the BJP emerged as the largest party winning 4 whereas the Haryana Vikas Party (HVP) and the Congress finished with 3 and 2. Two years later, it was Chautala's Haryana Lok Dal (Rashtriya) which walked away with 4 even as the INC increased its tally by one. The HLD(R) was later renamed as INLD. In 1999, the NDA swept the state with both allies winning five seats each. In the last two General Elections, the Congress finished with an impressive tally of nine.

	Political Party	2009	2004	1999	1998	1996
1	Congress (INC)	9	9	-	3	2
2	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	-	1	5	1	4
3	Indian National Lok Dal (INLD)	-	-	5	4	-
4	Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC)	1	-	-	-	-
5	Others (HVP/BSP/Ind)	-	-	-	2	4

MY PREDICTIONS

I expect the NDA to win about five seats from Haryana in the upcoming polls. The Congress will drop many seats; however, it will not be wiped out totally. While AAP may win one seat, the INLD will draw a blank.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	NDA (BJP + HJC)	5-7
2	Congress (INC)	3-4
3	Aam Admi Party (AAP)	0-1

WATCH OUT

(1) Can the INLD pack a punch: The INLD is fighting a battle for its existence and you can expect the party cadre to put in extra effort this time. Even in the Hisar by-elections of 2011, the party's candidate Ajay Chautala who heads the party now, came in the second position. Of course, this was before senior Chautala was sent to jail. In a desperate attempt, the outfit has fielded 26 year old Dushyant, the son of jailed leader Ajay Chautala. The young Turk will be the fourth generation of the Chautala family to join politics.

(2) Sharmaji's next move: After breaking his decades long association with the Congress, Venod Sharma had heaped praises on Narendra Modi at a rally in Kurukshetra. However, after being snubbed first by the BJP and then denied a ticket by the HJP under pressure from Sushma Swaraj, it will be interesting to see what he does next. Unlike Amar Singh who was 'accommodated' in the RLD with the blessing of the Congress high command, Sharma who is the father of Jessica Lal's murder Manu Sharma had no such luck. He is likely to contest as a candidate of the Haryana Lokhit Party (HLP) - an outfit fielded by an aide of Gopal Kanda - the prime accused in the murder of Geetika Sharma.

For more posts in this series:
(1) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Jharkahnd & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)