April 13, 2014

MIZORAM & LOK SABHA 2014


WILL MIZORAM GO WITH CONGRESS?


In the last assembly elections, the incumbent Chief Minister Pu Lalthanhwala led the ruling Congress to a land slide victory in Mizoram, bagging as many as 34 seats in the 40 member assembly. The MNF led by former guerrilla leader Pu Zoramthanga cut a sorry figure. In spite of nearly doubling its final tally, the regional player could only get five seats. The battle for the big elections has heated up. The INC is confident that it will manage to hold on to the single MP seat it won in 2009. However, the opposition parties have ganged up. As many as seven regional players have joined hands with the BJP under the banner of the United Democratic Front (UDF). They have decided to field a consensus candidate to prevent the split in the anti-Congress vote. Will the united opposition manage to win the seat in Mizoram or will the grand old party continue its winning streak? Let us take a deep dive and see if we can answer that question.

ISSUES

(1) Political Situation in the State: After winning over 80 percent of the seats in the state legislative assembly, you know why the Congress is the hot favorite to win the single seat. Pu Lalthanhwala, who won a second consecutive term in 2013 still remains popular. However, it may not be as easy as it seems to be. After the eight opposition parties have joined hands to fight the INC, the UDF has given itself a fighting chance. While the MNF led by Pu Zoramthanga may be reduced to just five, it is betting on anti-incumbency and image of Narendra Modi to work in its favor. The AAP is making its debut Aizwal and it remains to be seen how much of an impact it will make.

CONTENDERS

(1) The Congress: Probably the strongest contender to win the single MP seat from the state, the grand old party has renominated C.L. Ruala from here. In the last Lok Sabha polls, he had won 66 percent of the popular mandate.

(2) The United Democratic Front (UDF): The UDF - a coalition of eight parties including the Mizo National Front (MNF), the BJP, the NCP, the Zoram Nationalist Party (ZNP), the Hmar People's Convention (HPC), the Mizoram People's Conference (MPC), the Maraland Democratic Front (MDF) and Paites Tribal Council (PTC) has put up a consensus candidate - Robert Romawia Royte. He will contest as an independent and his symbol will be 'Bus'.

(3) The Aam Admi Party (AAP): Michael Lalmanzuala will be contesting on a AAP ticket.

PAST PERFORMANCES

The Congress won the single MP seat from here in 2009 after defeat in three successive polls. The MNF, a regional player emerged victorious in 2004 whereas the seat was won by two independent candidates in 1999 and 1998.

Political Party
2009
2004
1999
1998
1996
Congress
1
-
-
-
1
Mizo National Front (MNF)
-
1
-
-
-
Independent
-
-
1
1
-

MY PREDICTIONS

After a landslide victory in 2013 state polls, the Congress is all set to win the lone MP seat from here. What has made the ruling party's job easier is the fact that opposition MNF failed to even cross the two digit mark last year.

Political Party
Expected Seats
1
Congress (INC)
1
2
Mizo National Front (MNF)
0

WATCH OUT

(1) The Hrangturzo by-poll: The Hrangturzo assembly seat was left vacant after the incumbent CM decided to vacate it in favor of his home turf of Serchhip . The by-poll will be held along with the Lok Sabha elections. The Congress has nominated youth leader Vanlalawmpuii Chawngthu and if she wins, she will be the first Mizo woman to do so in last 27 years. The Opposition has given the ticket to H. Lalduhawma, who had lost to Lalthanhawla last time. A victory here will be a big boost for the regime whereas a loss will rejuvenate the Opposition.


Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)