UTTARAKHAND & LOK SABHA 2014

WHICH WAY WILL THE HILL STATE SWING?

In 2012, the hill state of Uttarakhand witnessed perhaps the closest state elections since the one held in Goa ten years ago (Link). The BJP which was in power brought back B C Khanduri fearful of the numerous corruption allegations against the incumbent CM Pokhriyal. The 'Khanduri hain Zarori' campaign of the saffron party almost worked. On the other hand, the Congress made life difficult for itself thanks to all the infighting amongst its several state leaders. Luckily for it though, it managed to finish with one more seat than the BJP as Khanduri himself lost his from his constituency (Link). The INC did form the government and the party high command hand picked Vijay Bahuguna - the MP from Tehri Garhwal to lead the state. However, the friction amongst state party leaders continued as the CM's son lost the Tehri Garhwal by-polls in 2012. Then came the big blow last years as parts of the state were devastated by cloud burst. With the state government coming under attack from various quarters for its shrody implementation of relief work, the party replaced Bahuguna by Harish Singh Rawat (Link). Will this gamble pay-off or does the BJP hold the edge before the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. That is the subject of this post.

ISSUES

(1) The 2013 floods: In June 2013, the state of Uttarakhand received heavy rains causing floods mainly concentrated around the holy town of Kedarnath. The disaster caused mainly due to disregards to environmental issues completely destroyed the holy town and nearly 6000 people are presumed to be dead. The calamity has caused damages worth crores of rupees and has also adversely affected tourism - an important source of livelihood for the people here. The efforts of the state government in rehabilitating people has come under severe criticism. This is expected to be a major poll issue.

(2) Anti-incumbency of UPA II: The disastrous performance of the UPA government is the poll plank of the BJP in the hill state. The saffron outfit is highlighting the short comings of the incumbent government including corruption, price rise and inflation. Besides, the party is also trying to cash in the Modi wave to get the votes.

CONTENDERS

(1) Congress: In 2009, Uttarakhand was one state where the INC white washed the BJP 5-0. Three years later, it managed to scrap through and form the government in Dehradun too. However, after that hard fought win nothing has gone in its favor. The INC is hopeful that the change in regime will somehow work in its favor. However, it was dealt a severe blow when its MP Satpal Maharaj left the INC and joined the saffron camp. In true Congress tradition, the grand old party has given tickets to former CM Bahuguna's son Saket Bahuguna from Tehri Garhwal and incumbent CM's wife Renuka Rawat from Haridwar. Senior state leader Harak Singh Rawat has filed his nomination from Garhwal.

(2) Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): Apart from the Modi wave, the saffronists are relying on the anti-incumbency against the ruling regime to work in its favor. With Satpal Maharaj joining it, the cadre are upbeat and are pretty sure to reverse that disastrous defeat of 2009. Three of the party's former CM are in the fray including B C Khanduri (Garhwal), Ramesh Pokhriyal Nishank (Haridwar) and Bhagat Singh Koshiyari (Nainital). The incumbent MP from Tehri Garhwal Raj Laxmi who had beaten Saket Bahuguna in the 2012 has been retained.

Others: The Aam Admi Party (AAP) too is contesting the polls and has fielded candidates in at least three seats. The Samajwadi Party (SP) as well as the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) are set to contest the polls from Uttarakhand.

PAST PERFORMANCES

In the first state elections in 2002, it was the Congress which emerged as the clear winner by just crossing the half way mark. In the next legislative polls, it was the saffron outfit that finished as the single largest party with 34 seats and formed the government with the help of the regional players and independents. Two years ago, in a close contest, the INC nearly spoiled its own chances as it scrapped by a resurgent BJP. The UKD has never managed to break big in the state thanks to internal splits and differences between leaders. Meanwhile, in 2009 Lok Sabha, the Congress did a clean sweep whereas the saffron camp won 3 seats in 2004.

	Political Party	2012 SE	2009 LE	2007 SE	2004 LE	2002 SE
1	Congress	32	5	21	1	36
2	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	31	-	34	3	19
3	Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP)	3	-	8	-	7
4	Uttarakhand Kranti Dal (UKD)	1	-	3	-	4
5	Others (SP/IND)	3	-	3	1	4

(1) Uttarakhand sends 70 seats to the state legislative assembly.

(2) The state has 5 parliamentary seats.

MY PREDICTIONS

The shoddy implementation of relief work after the 2013 flash floods and general anti-incumbency against the UPA government has put the Congress on the back foot.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	Congress	0-1
2	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	4-5

WATCH OUT

(1) The stability of the Uttarakhand government: Presently, Congress has 33 MLAs in the state assembly whereas the BJP has 30 seats. The INC has taken the support of the UKD and the independents to form the government. However, the defection of Satpal Maharaj to the saffron camp has changed the equation. If the NDA does win the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, you can expect Satpal loyalists to follow their leader into the BJP. It will not take long for either the lone UKD MLA or the independents to change their allegiance. In that situation, one can expect a regime change in Dehradun. You see a lot depends on the results.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

CHANGE OF GUARD

WILL REPLACING BAHUGUNA HELP THE CONGRESS

Harish Rawat (Courtesy: Sahara Samay)

With the elections coming closer, the Congress seems to be cornered on all fronts. The myriad corruption scandals, high inflation rates and economic slump have led to a strong anti-incumbency wave across the country. On the other hand, the BJP which had been a divided house for nearly a decade has found a new rallying point - its PM nominee Narendra Modi who has captivated the minds of the cadre. The INC tried to counter the Gujarat CM's growing influence by raising the issue of 'Secularism'. However, as opinion polls have predicted, the saffron leader's development agenda is a big hit amongst the masses while Congress' arguments are finding no takers. At the same time, the willingness of several non-NDA parties to work with the Hindutva leader was another big jolt to the UPA leadership, clearly indicating that many regional players are ready to join the BJP-led alliance provided it crosses the 200 mark. Aware of Modi's growing popularity and in a bid to divert attention from the failures of the UPA at the Centre, the party changed its strategy, deciding to focus on local issues at the state level. This too was a failure with the BJP and the AAP sweeping the recently concluded elections in the four states. Finally, the Congress took the big gamble as Rahul Gandhi gave a rare interview to Times Now Editor-in-chief Arnab Goswami. At the end of the 75 minute show, the younger Gandhi who could neither give convincing answers to any question thrown at him nor could put across his vision for the country was the laughing stock of the nation. At a time when they should convince people to vote for them, the party leaders are seen defending the royal scion in the last few days. Meanwhile the INC has not yet given up hope of a third consecutive term. The sacking of the Uttarakhand CM Vijay Bahuguna just a few months before the Lok Sabha polls is seen as a move to boost its chances in the state which it had swept in 2009. 

This is not the first time that a ripple effect of the General Elections has been felt in the capital Dehradun. In 2009 Lok Sabha polls, following the INC's white wash of the BJP, the incumbent CM B C Khanduri was asked to step down and replaced by his own aide Ramesh Pokhriyal. This move turned out to be a disaster; his alleged role in several scams became a cause of embarrassment to the party which was already facing the heat down south in Karnataka. Aware that Pokhriyal could dampen the party prospects in the 2012 state polls, Khanduri was brought back and placed at the helm of affairs. What should have been a cakewalk for the Congress turned out to be one of the closest electoral battles in the last few years thanks to factionalism within its ranks. Winning one seat more than the saffron outfit, the INC formed the government with support from the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP), the Uttarakhand Kranti Dal (UKD) and some independents. In what was seen as a counter to curb the growing influence of regional satraps like Harik Singh Rawat, Harish Rawat and Yaspal Arya to name a few, the party high command asked the dark horse - Tehri MP Vijay Bahuguna to occupy the top post. The first big jolt to the new CM came just few months down the line when his son Saket, a business man lost his dad's seat of Tehri to BJP's Mala Rajlakshmi Shah by over 22,000 votes. One of the prime reasons for the defeat was that several of the high profile state leaders refused to campaign for the CM's son. The big blow however, came in June 2013 when flash floods in and around the holy city of Kedarnath claimed over 5000 lives. Life and property worth crores was destroyed and tourism, one of the state's premiere sources of income took a major hit. In the following months, the callousness of the state administration to carry out the rescue operations and shoddy rehabilitation efforts further added to the strong anti-incumbency wave against the Central government, here in the hill state. As such, the Congress had no option but to sack Bahuguna. MP Harish Rawat, who enjoys the support of the majority members in the state legislature was made the CM.

CONSTITUENCY	1996	1998	1999	2004	2009
Almora	BJP	BJP	BJP	BJP	INC
Garhwal	AIIC (T)	BJP	BJP	BJP	INC
Hardwar	BJP	BJP	BJP	SP	INC
Nainital	AIIC (T)	BJP	INC	INC	INC
Tehri-Garhwal	BJP	BJP	BJP	BJP	INC

(1) Until 2004 Lok Sabha polls, the five constituencies in Uttarkhand were a part of Uttar Pradesh.

(2) AIIC (T): All India Indira Congress (Tiwari) was a splinter group of the Congress formed by N D Tiwari,  Arjun Singh and Natwar Singh which later merged with the INC.

The decision for a regime change in Dehradun should not surprise anybody. All opinion polls suggest that the UPA is struggling across the country. At the same time, Bahuguna administration's inefficient way of handling the relief work had become a major poll issue in the state which the BJP was trying to use for its own advantage. The Congress is hoping that the change of guard will cut down the anti-INC sentiments to some extent. A look at the above chart, showing which party won the five constituencies in the state over last five General Elections throws a surprising picture. Four out of the five times, Uttarkhand has chosen a clear winner. In other terms, it is a winner-takes-all state, like Tamil Nadu. In 1996, there was a close contest between the BJP and the N D Tiwari led AIIC(T). In the next two elections though, saffron wave swept the state as Congress struggled, managing to win just one seat in 1999. In 2004, the SP won Hardwar bringing the BJP's tally down by one whereas the INC held on to Nainital. The last election saw the Congress humiliating the BJP 5-0 in spite of the BJP lead coalition government in the state. The Congress' excellent show here was one of the biggest reasons for it to cross the 200 mark on its own. Five years down the line, with a strong anti-INC wave at the Centre and people's discontent with the state administration, the BJP is trying to capitalize on the situation and repeat its showing in 1998. The nomination of the Harish Rawat as the Chief Minister is an attempt by the Congress to bolster its prospects in the state. Will it work? Lets wait and watch.

IMAGES

(1) Harish Rawat (Courtesy: Sahara Samay)
Original: Sahara Samay - 1200 crores for disaster relief operations (Link)

THE STATES THAT MATTER - PART VII

THE RESULTS - AN OVERVIEW

Ending months of high voltage political drama, accusations, counter-accusations and mud-slinging, the results of the much awaited legislative assembly elections held between January and March in five Indian states were announced on 6th March, 2012. Earlier, beating all expectations, the electorate had come out in large numbers to choose their representatives, re-affirming their faith in the Indian democracy. However, the result pattern, cutting across all states did throw in a number of surprises, even to the most seasoned political pundits who had covered myriad elections over the years. Apart from a high voter turnout, the state elections did witness many heavyweights disappear into the oblivion whereas several young netas emerged to shine like stars on the horizon of Indian politics. Though many tainted nominees did make the cut, the electorate did boot out a size able number of controversial candidates. The masses voted for development as traditional electoral issues like caste and religion took a back burner. With the two major national parties underperforming, the momentum grew in favor of a non-Congress, non-BJP coalition - The Third Front that has been doing the rounds for a considerable period of time.   

Akhilesh Yadav was sworn in as the youngest CM of Uttar Pradesh

For the second consecutive time in a row, the mega state of Uttar Pradesh elected a party with a simple majority, squashing all speculations of a hung assembly and unholy alliances between parties of conflicting ideologies (read Congress-SP or BJP-BSP), formed purely for political gains. The Samajwadi Party, fighting the polls under the leadership of Akhilesh Yadav swept the polls winning a whopping 225 out of the 403 seats, the highest in its history. Though its true that there was a wave of discontent against the Mayawati government, the young leader is credited to be the 'real architect' of the SP's splendid performance as he garnered the anti-BSP votes into his party's kitty in spite of a 'strong' campaign by the two national parties - the Congress and the BJP who were seeing the polls as an opportunity to re-invent themselves in the state. 

While the myriad corruption scandals and lack of development under the Maya regime had significantly dented her prospects of a second consecutive term, the junior Yadav's spirited attempt to connect with the masses on the ground and a host of conscious decisions taken by him to improve his party's image seem to have gone well with the electorate. Besides vetoing against D P Yadav's entry into his outfit, Akhilesh made it clear during his popular cycle rallies that his party, if elected to power would curb goonda raj - a 'hallmark' of the Samajawadi politics during its previous terms. Realizing that their anti-technology or anti-English rhetoric may not impress the urban voter, the foreign educated Akhilesh promised free tablets and laptops for all students who pass class X and class XII exams respectively. In a move that has won him thousands of admirers, Akhilesh in an interview to the media after the resounding triumph, said that he would not raze Maya's statues, a stark contradiction to the his father's comments in this regard some weeks earlier, signaling perhaps, a new sense of maturity in the murky 'rajneeti' of UP and bringing an end to the politics of vendetta.

On the other hand, Mayawati paid the ultimate price for remaining aloof of the sufferings of the people on the ground with the BSP being reduced to just 80 seats. The host of corruption scandals and her affluent ways like wasting of public money on the constructions of her statues didn't seem to go unnoticed with the electorate, determined to teach the 'Dalit ki Beti' a lesson which she would not forget so soon. Though Maya did try to get an image makeover by dropping several of her ministers and sitting MLAs and resorted to 'Social Engineering' to exploit the caste factor to her advantage, her unimpressive report card over the last five years meant that the public didn't fall for her cheap tricks this time around.

For the national parties the wait to regain lost ground in India's most populous state seems to be extended by another five years. Though the early leads indicated that the BJP could dislodge the BSP to emerge as the second largest party in the assembly, the performance of the saffron outfit plateaued and and then declined to 47 seats, four less than the last polls. The BJP high command's decision to rope in its Hindutva icon and OBC face Uma Bharati failed miserably as the party failed to capitalize on the failures of both the state and central governments. While the Congress's performance was better when compared to 2007, the hype generated around Rahul Gandhi by the media in general and the Congress leaders in particular failed to translate into votes. Thus what was supposed to be the most important day in Baba's short and unimpressive political career so far proved to be a major embarrassment for the party already troubled by allegations of corruption at the Centre. Ironically while the party had finished second in terms of seats in the 2009 General elections in the state, it did badly even in the traditional Nehru-Gandhi bastions of Amethi and Rae Bareily.

Parkash and Sukhbir Badal retained Punjab

While Mulayam and Akhilesh took the Samajwadi Party home in Uttar Pradesh, another father-son duo, that of Parkash and Sukhbir Singh Badal created history in the state of Punjab by being the first government to retain power in nearly four decades. Though there were several cases of corruption against the Badals during their previous schemes, the last government took concrete steps towards development including the popular Atta-Dal scheme which provides flour and pulses at subsidized rates to the poor, thus seeing off the threat posed by the opposition Congress and the PPP. Besides the relatively good performance by the previous SAD-BJP regime, the dynamic image of the Akali crown prince and Deputy CM Sukhbir combined with the skills and experience of CM Parkash Singh Badal won the SAD a total of 56 seats, falling just 3 short of a simple majority on its own. After being reduced to just 4 seats in the last Lok Sabha polls, the Akalis seem to have learnt from their mistakes and did their homework well prior to the assembly polls, which was reflected in their excellent figures.

The SAD's alliance partner, the BJP whose image took a beating following raids on several of their state ministers by the CBI and friction amongst its leaders slipped from 19 to just 12 seats. While it is true that the it was a herculean tasks for the party to even come close to its out of the skins performance last time around, considering its sorry state of affairs at all levels, the party needs to take corrective measures soon to remain afloat in the state especially at a time when the Akalis are trying hard to woo the minority Hindu community - a traditional BJP vote bank. 

The Congress party's fortunes in the state were dashed primarily due to faulty distribution of tickets and the large number of rebels that were in fray across the state. Hoping to end infighting amongst the state leaders, Rahul Gandhi, during his election campaign had made it clear that former CM Amarinder Singh would be the party's nominee for the top post in case it manages to come to power in 2012. The Congress's hopes also depended largely on the Manpreet Singh Badal led PPP splitting the traditional Akali vote on the lines of the MNS in Maharashtra. However, with the PPP drawing a blank on its debut and the Congress failing to capitalize on the shortfalls of the Badal regime, it was a rather easy victory for the octogenarian leader. 

BJP's Khanduri lost to S S Negi of Congress

The state of Uttarakhand witnessed a close contest as both the BJP and the Congress failed to get a clear majority. The saffron outfit, fighting a strong wave of anti-incumbency and a long list of scams under the erstwhile CM Ramesh Pokhriyal tried hard to woo the voters by replacing the former by B C Khanduri. The new CM, who had been axed following the party's disastrous performance in 2009, enhanced the BJP's poll prospects by passing several key legislation including Anna Hazare's Jan Lokpal Bill. Surprisingly, while the 'Khanduri hain Zarori' campaign of the saffron outfit may have prevented a complete rout, the former CM lost the Kotdwar assembly seat to S S Negi of the Congress adding salt to the injury of the BJP.

Although the Congress managed to increase its tally from 21 to 32 assembly seats, the party needs to contemplate as to what went wrong in the manner in which it fought the Uttarakhand polls. In what should have been a cake walk for the party, the Congress nearly lost out to the BJP owing to the differences between its many chief ministerial aspirants and the rebels contesting as independent candidates. A simple math shows that it could have easily won atleast 5 to 10 seats more if the rebels had been placated before the state went to polls.

The key to the government formation in the hill state now depends on the 7 MLAs who have made the cut while contesting on a non-BJP and non-Congress ticket. The BSP has lost 5 seats but has still managed to finish at a tally of three. The Panwar faction of the UKKD has won a single seat whereas three independents, all former Congressmen have won from their constituencies. With the victorious rebels showing inclinations of supporting their former party and the UKKD(P) making it clear that they would not support the BJP, the stage is set for the Congress to come back to power after five years in Uttarakhand.

Okram Ibobi Singh won a straight third term

After the flop show in UP, the ignominious defeat in Punjab and a mess in Uttarakhand, the only consolation for the Congress came from the North-Eastern state of Manipur where it single handedly won  70% of the seats, a rise of 12 seats as compared to the previous polls. In fact, there were several hurdles that CM Okram Ibobi Singh had to overcome to get a continuous third term in Imphal. A conglomerate of seven underground groups had warned the people against voting for the party. Besides, many parties including MPP, NCP, rivals - JD(U) and RJD and Left Front had joined hands to bring down the Ibobi government. However, in the end, not only did the Congress improve its tally, the united Opposition was decimated and it managed to win only a single seat. 

The Manipur State Congress Party (MSCP) which was reduced to 0 seats in 2007 grabbed 5 seats whereas the Naga People's Front (NPF) did well in the Naga dominated regions to finish with 4 seats.  Mamata Bannerjee's impressive campaigning in Manipur seems to have paid off as the Trinamool, which like the NPF is a new entrant in the state politics won 7 seats on debut and will be the principal Opposition in the new assembly.

While it was Manipur for the Congress, Goa saved the blushes for the BJP which was voted out of power in Uttarakhand and whose performance both in UP and Punjab was below par to say the least. Under former CM Manohar Parrikar, the saffron outfit bagged 21 seats and winning a simple majority on its own for the first time in the coastal state. Its coalition partner the MGP won three seats, thereby managing to retain its political symbol. With two independents supported by the BJP also making the cut, the strength of the new government is set to be 26 in a house of 40 members.

Parrikar led BJP to a spectacular victory

The Congress which was in power since 2005 was dealt a severe blow with several of its key leaders losing to new faces fielded by the BJP-MGP combine. The inability of the government to deal effectively against illegal mining and the distribution of tickets to several members of the same family were the prime reasons that led to the downfall of the Congress. Meanwhile, its coalition partner the NCP failed even to open its account. The Goa Vikas Party (GVP), fighting the elections in agreement with the UGDP bagged 2 seats whereas independents won in five constituencies.

The elections results have thrown in a mixed bag and two years prior to the next General elections, it is not much clear as to which national alliance - the ruling UPA or the NDA has the edge. Neither the Congress nor the BJP seem to have anything much to cheer about from the assembly election results. Sensing this as a proper opportunity, the advocates of the Third Front are trying hard to woo the constituents of the big coalitions in a bid to strengthen their numbers. With political re-alignments expected in the aftermath of the results, it looks like the political battle for the 2014 elections may just have begun.

IMAGES

(1) Akhilesh Yadav was sworn in as the youngest CM of Uttar Pradesh (Link) 

Source: India Today - Election Results - Akhilesh pedals Samajwadi Party to victory in Uttar Pradesh

(2) Parkash and Sukhbir Singh Badal retained Punjab (Link) 

Source: Samay Live - Badal to be sworn in as Punjab CM on March 14th

(3) BJP's Khanduri lost to S S Negi of Congress (Link) 

Source: Hillpost - Khanduri improves party position but fails to win

(4) Ikram Obibi Singh won a straight third term (Link) 

Source: Today News - Assembly polls - Big Winners and Big Losers

(5) Parrikar led the BJP to a spectacular victory Parrikar (Link) 

Source: HeraldGoa - I will not become CM if forced to take support of undesirable elements  

THE STATES THAT MATTER - PART IV

 BATTLEGROUND UTTARAKHAND

Nestled amongst the mighty Himalayas, the state of Uttarakhand, characterized by lush green hills, steep doons (valleys), gushing rivers and abundant natural beauty is one of the most picturesque states of India. Dotted with places of pilgrimage and worship in Hinduism, the state, referred to as the ‘Land of the Gods’ attracts a large number of tourists each year. Carved out of north western Uttar Pradesh after a long, yet relatively peaceful struggle, the state has not yet made any significant progress even 12 years after its creation. The state politics has been dominated by the national parties – the BJP and the Congress and there have been five different Chief Ministers. Also, the electorate has voted out incumbent governments in the two assembly elections since its formation.

Aware of this fact, the ruling BJP is heavily banking on its CM Bhuvan Chand Khanduri to rewrite history and come back to power. A former army man who was given the Athi Vishisht Seva Medal by the President in 1982, he was the Minister for Road Transport and Highways in the NDA government and played a key role in the implementation of Vajpayee’s dream project – The Golden Quadrilateral. A four time Lok Sabha MP from Garhwal, he was made the Uttarkhand CM after he led the BJP to a victory in the 2007 elections. However, after a 5-0 drubbing at the hands of the Congress in the 2009 General elections, he was asked to take moral responsibility for the party’s dissmal show in the state and replaced by his former confidant, Ramesh Pokriyal Nishank as the saffron party was looking for an image makeover in the hill state.

Uttarakhand CM B C Khanduri

However, little did the BJP know that many of the problems that plague the party in this election would emanate from Pokriyal’s 18 month rule, or as his detractors say, ‘misrule’. During his tenure the government was shrouded in a series of scams, most notably the Kumbh Mela scam, irregularities in the bidding process for the construction of several hydro-electric plants and the Citurgia land scam. In fact, the situation soon became a political ‘hot potato’ for the BJP with the Congress accusing it of double standards in its anti-corruption campaign against the UPA government. Even civil society member, Arvind Kejriwal trained his guns at Pokriyal and labeled him as ‘pocket edition of Suresh Kalmadi’. Fearing a rout in the forthcoming polls, the BJP president Nitin Gadkari, at the behest of senior party leaders Murali Manohar Joshi and Rajnath Singh, summoned the Uttarakhand CM to New Delhi and sacked him. 

In a bid to regain lost ground, the saffron outfit installed its most popular leader in the state, Khanduri as the new CM. And in his second stint, Khanduri hit a six of the very first ball when he passed Anna Hazare’s version of the Lokpal bill. This move won him accolades from the civil society and further enhanced his image as a clean and upright leader. To cut the Congress to size in the state, he ordered inquiry into several cases of corruption during the N D Tiwari led Congress government. He also passed several popular legislations including Uttarakhand Right to Service Act (making 80 basic services to be provided within a prescribed time limit), Uttarakhand Special Courts Act (setting up of fast trials courts to deal against corruption) and Uttarakhand Transfer for Public Servants Act (dealing with frequent transfers of government employees). Thus what once looked like a cake walk for the Congress has turned into a tight contest. The ‘Khanduri Zarori Hain’ campaign of the BJP has revitalized the party cadre and opinion polls have suggested that the party may have a slight edge over the Congress in Uttarakhand.

The Opposition Congress finds itself rather on a sticky wicket. With the UPA government accused in a number of scams, the state unit of is finding hard to make the corruption under the Pokhriyal regime a major political issue.  However the main mudda for the party ahead of the upcoming polls is the lack of development in the last 5 years. Though blessed with perennial rivers, watered by glaciers in the Himalayas, many parts of the state are facing acute water shortage. Besides, routine power cut and lack of road connectivity, especially in rural areas has become a major road block in the state’s development and has given more ammunition to the party to attack the incumbent government. Unemployment and migration from hills due to poor living conditions in the villages are other planks that the Congress is fighting the assembly polls. But poll pundits have predicted that with high inflation may dent the prospects of the party in the state.

In fact, the large number of rebels that have entered the fray may hold the key as to who forms the next government in Dehradun.  Hoping to beat anti-incumbency, the BJP dropped a third of its sitting MLAs but the move backfired as many of these leaders have rebelled and are contesting against the party’s official candidates. Though former cabinet ministers, Khajan Das and Govind Singh Bist seem to have fallen in line after much persuasion, several others like Kedar Singh Fonia (Badrinath), G L Shah (Tharali) and Anil Nautiyal (Karnaprayag) have been expelled and are contesting the polls either as independents or as candidates of regional parties. Also, the party is facing rebellion in all three assembly seats in Chamoli district. 

BJP leaders Pokhriyal, Koshiyari and Khanduri

And the situation is equally bad for the Opposition. Although, it has given tickets to all its sitting MLAs, the Congress is facing rebels in several constituencies. With the state unit being divided into several camps, each supporting its own CM candidate, loyalists of leaders who have been denied party tickets, are standing as independents. Prominent amongst them include Jot Singh Bist (Dhanaulti), a Harish Rawat loyalist and Mantri Prasad Naithani (Devprayag), who is known to be close to Satpal Maharaj.

Another problem for the two national parties in the state is the infighting amongst the state leaders for the much coveted seat of the Chief Minister. While the BJP has projected Khanduri as its official CM candidate, former CMs Ramesh Pokriyal and Bhagat Singh Koshiyari have not yet given up their claims over the top post. Pokriyal, once a close confidant of Khanduri was chosen by the latter to replace him after he was made to resign following the BJP’s rout in 2009 Lok Sabha elections. This was seen by many as a move to prevent Koshiyari from being the CM. Although Khanduri and Koshiyari buried their hatchet and worked together to end Pokriyal’s stay at the helm of affairs in the state, the bonhomie was short lived and the two soon fell apart. 

Khanduri is contesting from Kotdwar in the plains after his seat of Dhumkot in the hills ceased to exist following the delimitation exercise. The sitting BJP MLA from the constituency, Shailendra Singh Rawat is known to be very popular in the area and has given up his seat in favor of Khanduri after initial resentment and the promise of a plum post if the party comes to power in the polls. Though many speculated that Shailendra may rebel against the party's dikat, he has been seen actively campaigning for the CM. 

Ramesh Pokhriyal, a sitting MLA from Thalisainin is contesting from the town of Doiwala near Dehradun. He has been side lined by the party and many of his loyalists including Anil Nautiyal, Pankaj Sehgal , G L Shah and Manveer Singh Chauhan have been denied tickets, thereby suppressing any chances of rebellion from his side. Without the support of local leader and agriculture minister, T S Rawat – a Koshiyari aide and with a slew of corruption charges against him, the former CM may find it extremely difficult to win his seat.

Koshiyari, who is a BJP MP from Rajya Sabha and a RSS favorite, is not contesting the state elections. Though the BJP has denied all allegations of infighting amongst its top leaders, sources say that relations between the BJP’s Tridevs are far from cordial and may affect the saffron party’s performance in the hill state.

Leader of Opposition Harak Singh Rawat

While BJP is said to be in split over the issues of CM, the Congress is in no better situation as it several potential candidates for the CM’s chair. Harak Singh Rawat, the Leader of Opposition in the outgoing house is contesting from Rudraprayag against brother-in-law, Matbar Singh Khandari who is a state minister and a two time MLA from the assembly seat. A protégé of Govindacharya, who left the BJP to join the BSP and then the Congress, he is seen as a frontrunner for the CM’s chair in case the Congress comes to power in the hill state. 

The Minister of State for Labour in the UPA government and Haridwar Lok Sabha MP, Harish Rawat is also seen by many as a potential CM candidate. Starting his political career at the village level, he has worked as a Trade Unionist and Youth Congress leader. As such he is seen as a grass root politician and enjoys the support of party cadres.

Dalit leader and state Congress in-charge Yashpal Arya is another prominent Congress leader form the state and is contesting from Bazpur seat. His Dalit-Muslim combine was a seen as instrumental in the party’s resounding victory in the 2009 elections. 

Lok Sabha MPs from the state Satpal Maharaj (Garhwal) and Vijay Bahugana (Tehri) are the other contenders in the fray. Even veteran Congress leader and former CM N D Tiwari has thrown his hat in the ring and has announced that he is ready to head the state if the ‘High command’ desires. The octogenarian politician has secured seats for his nephew Manish Tiwari (Gadarpur) and associate Indira Hridayesh (Haldwani).

The delimitation exercise in Uttarakhand which has reduced the representation of the ten hill districts and increases that of other three districts, namely Haridwar, Dehradun and Udham Singh Nagar may end up spoiling prospects of several top politicians in the state. Several top leaders including the BJP’s Khanduri, and Pokhriyal and Congress’s Yashpal Arya and Harak Rawat have been forced to shift their base and scout for new assembly seats.

Besides the two national parties, the BSP is hoping to increase its tally in the state assembly to double digits. In fact, the BSP supremo has realized that a good show in the upcoming elections in UP, Uttarakhand and Punjab may make her a force to reckon with in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. Continuing with her dream of becoming India’s first Dalit PM, the UP CM has addressed several rallies in the hill state in a bid to garner as many seats as possible. In the last assembly elections, the party did very well in the Haridwar district, winning 6 out of the 9 assembly seats. With the number of assembly seats from the district being increased to 11 this time around, the BSP is looking to improve its performance and emerge as a king-maker in case of a hung assembly.

UKD leader Diwakar Bhatt

The Uttarakhand Kranti Dal (UKD) which spear headed the movement for the creation of a separate hill state in the Himalayas has utterly failed in its motive to become a third alternative for the people of Uttarakhand. In the last assembly elections, the UKD could get only three seats and ended up supporting the BJP. Amongst the party’s main aim is the setting up of a new state capital at Gairsain and protecting the culture and rights of the people of the region. However, the UKD’s ideology, especially since the creation of the state has failed to strike a chord with the voters and its support base is sinking over the years. As of today, the party’s electoral symbol has been freezed by the EC and infighting between state cabinet minister Diwakar Bhatt and Trivender Singh Panwar has split the party into two factions, namely the UKD (D) and the UKD (P), which has joined hands with the Left parties. 

The Uttarakhand Raksha Morcha (URM) floated by former army man Lieut-Gen Tej Pal Singh Rawat has been able poach several leaders from the BJP and the Congress who have been disgruntled with their parties for various reasons. Rawat, who has been associated with the BJP and Congress in the past, is planning to win the hearts of the electorate by fielding clean candidates. 

As in other states, the political parties seem to have completely forgotten the issues that affect the farming community in the hill state. The man-animal conflict involving grazing of crops by herbivores, especially in the hilly terrain causes loss worth lakhs of rupees to the farmers. Also, the illegal quarrying of the Ganga river bed is destroying the National River and the flora and fauna that depend on it. This issue was highlighted by the death of Swami Nigmanad, who died in June 2011 after a long fast which attracted no large scale media attention as compared to the Baba Ramdev’s 11 day fast against the midnight police crackdown on his agitation against black money in New Delhi, which looked more like a farce.

Swami Nigmanad

As the election fever grips the state, the BJP and the Congress are trying their level best to win the forthcoming polls. The saffron outfit is aiming to rewrite history and get back to power for a second consecutive term. On the other hand, the Congress is highlighting the short comings of the incumbent government and trying to convince the electorate to vote it to power. The regional parties and the many independent candidates that are contesting the polls are hoping that a fractured mandate may make them key players in the process of government formation, provided they manage to win their seats. The people's verdict to be announced on 6th March will decide who rules the state and who bites the dust.

SOURCES

(1) Business Line - BJP banking on Khanduri's clean image to return to power in Uttarakhand (Link)

(2) NEWS Bullet.in - BJP magic to continue in Uttarakhand (Link)

(3) The Indian Express - Will file defamation suit against Kejriwal: Nishank (Link)

(4) Business Standard - In Uttarakhand, revolt in BJP more severe than Cong (Link)

(5) The Times of India - Many Nishank loyalists dropped from BJP list (Link)

(6) The Indian Express - Congress attempts to pin down Khanduri in his own constituency (Link)

(7) Zee News - Uttarakhand CM Candidates (Link)

(8) Jagran Post - Appraoch for Uttarakhand's chief minesterial post gains momentum in Congress (Link)

(9) Wikipedia - Uttarakhand Kranti Dal (Link)

(10) Jay Bharat, Jay Uttarakhand - Uttarakhand Kranti Dal (Link)

(11) The Tribune India - Pact with BJP proved 'suicidal' for UKD (Link)

(12) The Tribune India - Party activists will never forgive Panwar, says Diwakar Bhatt (Link)

(13) The Times of India - Maya eyes Uttarakhand to raise BSP's vote bank (Link)

(14) The Times of India - In Uttarakhand, politicians ignoring farmer's issues (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Uttarakhand CM B C Khanduri (Link)

Source: Zee News

(2) BJP leaders Pokhriyal, Koshiyari and Khanduri (Link)

Source: The Tribune India: Industrial package tops agenda  

(3) Leader of Opposition Harak Singh Rawat (Link)

Source: The Hindu: India committed to controlling foot and mouth disease  

(4) UKD leader Diwakar Bhatt (Link)

Source: The Tribune India

(5) Swami Nigmanad (Link)

Source: India Water Portal – Unsung Baba 

THE STATES THAT MATTER - PART I

AN OVERVIEW

The stage is set, the contenders are ready and the stakes are high. As seven states go to the polls in this year, political parties will leave no stone upturned in a bid to form and retain governments in the Vidhan Sabha. Once the votes are cast and the results (The States That Matter - Part VII) start coming in, one state after another, there will be political upheavals both at the state level and the Centre. Long time allies will part ways and new alliances will be forged. Political heavyweights will put everything on line; while some will emerge successful, others will sink into the oblivion and new leaders will emerge to replace the older brigade. A total of 941 assembly seats are up for grabs which translates into 132 Lok Sabha seats and more importantly, 57 seats in the Rajya Sabha, whose importance has suddenly risen, thanks to the Central government’s inability to pass the Lokpal bill in the Upper House of the Parliament as it failed to get the required numbers.

In fact, the 2012 assembly polls will be, in several ways, a litmus paper test for the Manmohan Singh government, half way in its second consecutive term. The states that are scheduled to vote this year are spread out across the country, except for the south. Though the local issues dominate assembly polls, the rampant corruption in the Union government, magnified by Anna Hazare’s movement may impact the minds of the voters as they fulfill their fundamental duty to vote. A good show by the Congress and its allies will be a big boost for the UPA, struggling to get a makeover whereas an electoral setback may give more ammunition to the Opposition as it tries to tighten its noose around the Singh government. With Mamata Bannerji sending overtures to the JD (U), the prospects of the revival of a much stronger Third Front look brighter than ever in case the regional parties fare better than the national parties.

UP CM Mayawati with S C Mishra (Courtesy: IBN Live)

Although the Indian Constitution gives equal status to all the states and union territories, few will argue that Uttar Pradesh – India’s most populous and second largest state is the big daddy and the complexities involved in conducting polls in this province are next only to the general elections. Considering its sheer size, the fragile law and order situation and the infrastructure needed to conduct elections in a free and fare manner, the Election Commission of India (ECI) has decided that voting for the Vidhan Sabha will be split into seven phases, starting 8^th February to 3^rd March and the results will be declared on 6^th March, 2012.

The incumbent CM Kumari Mayawati having completed her full term, is keen to replicate her spectacular success in the 2007 where her party won a simple majority thanks to her unique strategy – Social Engineering that won her votes from all segments of the society. However, with new cases of corruption cropping up against her and her cabinet ministers day after day, Behenji may find it difficult to convince the electorate to give her a second chance in spite of sacking several of her tainted ministers and denying tickets to a large number of her sitting MLAs. Projecting the ECI’s decision to cover her statutes as an opposition’s conspiracy to belittle the Dalit community, Mayawati has gone back to caste based politics to retain the CM’s chair. By demanding that the mega state be split into four smaller units, she is aiming to put her many rivals into a tight spot. The principal opposition, the Samajwadi Party (SP) has undertaken a ‘Kranti Rath Yatra’ to reach out to the people and highlight the shortcomings of the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) government. The father-son duo of Mulayam Singh and Akhilesh Yadav are expecting their traditional Yadav-Muslim vote bank to back the party as it hopes to emerge as the single largest party in the state. (The States That Matter - Part II)

Buoyed by its superb performance in the Lok Sabha elections in the state of UP, the Congress under the leadership of Rahul baba has never missed out any opportunity to hit out at the BSP government and was at the forefront of the Bhatta-Parsaul agitation against forcible land acquisition. Realizing the fact that the polarization of Muslim votes in its favour was a chief reason for their political success in UP in 2009, the party has gone all out to appease the community with soaps like reservation for Muslim OBCs under the 27 per cent OBC quota and has roped in its minority face, Digvijay Singh to campaign in UP. Union Aviation Minister Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), which is a pre-poll alliance of the Congress, is hoping to maintain its stronghold in western UP. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in absence of any pan-UP mass leader, is banking on its OBC face, Uma Bharati to eat into the BSP’s vote bank and is trying hard to woo back the upper caste votes that had deserted the saffron outfit in the last few elections. 

Punjab CM Prakash Singh Badal (Courtesy: Free Visuals 4 U)

Like in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab CM Parkash Singh Badal and son and deputy CM, Sukhbir Singh Badal will be battling charges of corruption and anti-incumbency as Punjab goes to polls on 30^th January. The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) – BJP coalition government has been accused of shoddy implementation of central schemes and lack of infrastructure development in the state during its 5 year tenure by the opposition. However, the biggest headache for the Badal government will be losing votes to the Manpreet Singh Badal’s People’s Party of Punjab (PPP). The nephew of the Punjab CM and former finance minister parted ways after a series of differences over governing issues with cousin Sukhbir in November 2010. The ‘Sanjha Morch’ consisting of the PPP, CPI (M), CPI and SAD (Longowal) is gaining momentum and may end up spoiling the prospects of several prominent candidates. It will be interesting to see if the PPP can emerge as a successful alternative for the Punjabi people or will fizzle out like Cheeranjivi’s erstwhile Praja Rajyam did in Andhra after all the initial hype. (The States That Matter - Part III)

Interesting all is not well within the Congress camp too. Captain Amarinder Singh, the head of the party’s Punjab unit is seen as arrogant. Several candidates who were denied tickets have will either entered the contest as independents or have switched over to the SAD including Amarinder’s brother, Malwinder Singh. Besides, Mayawati is hoping to ride on the wave of Dalit assertion in the Daoba region, asking people to make her mentor, Kanshi Ram’s dream of a BSP government in his home state of Punjab come true and open her account in the state.

Uttarakhand CM Khanduri with ex CM Pokhriyal (Courtesy: India Today)

In the third assembly elections since its creation, Uttarakhand will see a straight fight between the ruling BJP and the Congress. Following the 2009 Lok Sabha elections that witnessed a 5-0 whitewash for the saffron party, the BJP high command replaced the sitting CM B C Khanduri with Ramesh Pokhriyal Nishank. However, the move backfired and with a slew of corruption charges against Nishank, he came to be seen as the ‘Yeddyurappa of the North’ and soon became an embarrassment for the party. Although Khanduri, who replaced Pokhriyal has managed to salvage back some pride for the BJP by passing Anna Hazare’s version of Lokpal bill, reports of in fighting between the two leaders may harm the prospects of the party. Besides, former CM Bhagat Singh Koshiyari still nurtures the dream of returning as the state’s CM. (The States That Matter - Part IV)

The Congress is raising the issue of regular power cuts and lack of regular water supply in the state as it tries to replicate it superb performance in the state in the last general elections. Led by Harak Singh Rawat, the Congress is hopeful that delimitation exercise will benefit it in the upcoming polls. Although at the forefront of the movement for statehood, Uttarakhand Kranti Dal (UKD) has failed in its objective to emerge as the state’s premiere political party. A coalition partner in the present government, the UKD will be hoping to get as many seats as it can so that it can emerge as a king maker in case both the national parties make to get a clear majority like in the last assembly elections. Like in Punjab, the BSP is hoping to make inroads in Uttarakhand in the 30^th January elections.

Manipur CM Okram Ibobi Singh (Courtesy: IBN Live)

As the volatile state of Manipur goes to polls on 30^th January, the emotive issues will determine who forms the next government in Imphal. Congress CM Okram Ibobi Singh will be trying his best to seek a consecutive third term in office. The principal opponent this time around will be a pre-poll alliance between the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), JD-U (Janata Dal – United), RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal), CPI (M) and Manipur People’s Party (MPP). Like several other North-eastern states, insurgency has crippled the economy of Manipur leading to widespread unemployment and discontent amongst the local population. The Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA), dubbed by Manipuris as ‘Draconian’ has given sweeping powers to the army and alleged atrocities by the men in uniform, including fake encounters and sexual molestation has further alienated the people from the Indian mainstream. 

The ethnic strife between the Nagas, demanding a greater Nagaland – ‘Nagalim’, comprising of areas dominated by the Naga people and the Kurkis demanding for a separate district in the Sadar hills region is another major political issue. The blockade by the Kurkis and the parallel blockade imposed by the Nagas on the state’s two national highways that lasted for over 100 days led to a severe shortage of essential commodities, with prices of food items and fuel skyrocketing. Hoping to en cash on the situation, Nagaland People’s Front (NPF) has decided to contest the Manipur polls and may do well in the Naga dominated Senapati district.

Goa CM Digambar Kamat (Courtesy: Top News)

Also going to polls in the first half of 2012 is the tiny state of Goa. The Congress which is in power since February 2005, is facing the heat as several of its prominent leaders are facing charges in the illegal mining scam. The report has indicted present CM Digambar Kamat and former CM and Speaker Pratapsinh Rane for colluding with the mining mafia and not taking action against them. The illegal land grabbing by the Russian mafia and non-Goans along with the ‘Bhasha Andolan’, a movement for making regional languages as the medium of instruction at the primary level are the major issues for the opposition, the BJP as it tries to whip regional sentiments for its benefit. (The States That Matter - Part VI)

The BJP under the leadership of Manohar Parriker is hoping to capitalize on the Congress government’s failure in the last 7 years to come back to power. The Maharashtrwadi Gomantak Party (MGP), which ruled the state till the late 80s will be fighting for its very survival as it has to win at least 3 seats to retain its poll symbol. Although the MGP is keeping its options open and is yet to decide on its alliance with the BJP, the Goa unit of the NCP has finalized to chalk out a seat sharing pact with the Congress. Meanwhile, former state cabinet minister, Mickey Pachecho of the Goa Vikas Party (GVP) has forged an alliance with the United Goans Democratic Party (UGDP) and is aiming to muster as many seats as possible so that he can emerge as a king maker in case of a hung assembly like in the past.

6^th March – the day on which the election results will be declared, will certainly be one of the most important days in the year’s political calendar. From religious ceremonies to freebies to promises, politicians are using all tricks to gain power. But like always it’s the people’s mandate and the masses will decide who will get win and who will bite the dust. We may not be able to predict who will win first round of the battle of states, the whole exercise will, for sure, strength the ethos of Indian democracy.

SOURCES

(1) Wikipedia - Legislative Assembly Elections India, 2012 (Link)

(2) NDTV - Issues that matter (Link)

IMAGES

(1)  UP CM Mayawati with S C Mishra (Courtesy: IBN Live) (Link)

Source: IBN Live - Mayawati slams Congress on quota, scams

(2) Punjab CM Parkash Singh Badal (Courtesy: Free Visuals 4 U) (Link)

Source: Free Visuals 4 U - Punjab Chief Minister, Prakash Singh Badal

(3) Uttarakhand CM Khanduri with Pokriyal (Courtesy: India Today) (Link)

Source: India Today - Nishank fired after drama to delay exit flops

(4) Manipur CM Okram Ibobi Singh (Courtesy: IBN Live) (Link)

Source: IBN Live - Congress will win minimum 35 seats: Manipur CM  

(5) Goa CM Digambar Kamat (Courtesy: Top News) (Link) 
Source: Top News - Fight against attempts to defame state: Digambar Kamat