THE HALF RAINBOW COALITION

CAN THE BJP AND ITS ALLIES POSE A FORMIDABLE CHALLENGE IN TN

The saffron outfit seems to be in an envious position in Tamil Nadu. No, it is not because there is some NaMo wave in the Tamil country. Nor is it that the BJP is all set to win a large chunk of the 39 seats in the southern state. In my opinion, one of the biggest highlights for the party here is that both of the two big Dravidian parties have refrained from attacking it. While Amma, who many consider to be a 'natural ally' of the BJP for her pro-Brahmin stance, may have decided to go solo in the upcoming polls, she has never attacked Modi in her rallies. The DMK which has been under fire for the alleged role of its top leaders in the multi-crore 2G scam too has gone soft on its former ally in the NDA. Having walked out of the UPA over the Lankan Tamil issue, the party supremo Karunanidhi had referred to the Gujarat CM as a 'close friend'. Even his estranged son Alagiri has backed Modi for the top post. On the other hand, the INC has failed to tie up with any party in Tamil Nadu and many of its top guns, including Finance Minister Chidambaram have refused to contest the polls. Apart from being wooed by both the AIADMK and the DMK, the saffron party has stitched together a rainbow alliance down south, joining hands with several smaller Dravidian outfits. There is little doubt that the BJP, which may lead the next government at the Centre is in the driver's seat. By forming such a formidable coalition in a state where it has nominal presence, the party has showcased its clout in the political sphere just on the eve of the 2014 General Elections.

The biggest catch for the BJP in the Tamil country has been 'Captain' Vijaykant. The Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazagham (DMDK) was also being wooed by the DMK and the Congress. In fact, when Alagiri had lashed out at the DMDK chief, the DMK patriarch had publicly rapped his son. Having won 10 percent of the votes in the state in the 2009 General Elections and finishing as the second largest party in the last state legislative polls, he will lead the NDA in the 2014, putting up candidates in 14 constituencies. The second largest partner in the grand coalition is Ramadoss' Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) which has been allocated eight seats. Popular in the northern and north-western parts of the state, especially amongst the Vaniyars, it took considerable effort on part of the BJP to get the two rivals - the DMDK and the PMK together. Even now it seems that the differences between the two parties who have common political interests, have not yet disappeared completely. Perhaps, the most vocal supporter of the candidature of the Gujarat CM in Tamil Nadu has been the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) chief Vaiyapuri Gopalaswamy, more popularly known as Vaiko. The pro-LTTE leader will field candidates in seven parliamentary constituencies. The Kongunadu Makkal Desiya Katchi (KMDK) which has some influence in the Kongu region and the Indiya Jananayaka Katchi (IJK) has been allocated one seat each. Meanwhile, the BJP will nominate candidates in eight seats.

	Political Party	Seats Won	Vote Share
1	Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazagham (DMDK)	-	10.3
2	Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK)	-	6.4
3	Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK)	-	3.7
4	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	-	2.3
	National Democratic Alliance (NDA)	-	22.3

The above chart shows the seats won and the vote share of the major constituents of the NDA in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls.

Now let us consider the chances of the NDA in the 2014 General Elections. If we add up the vote share of the parties that form a part of the alliance today, we see that it is an impressive 22.3 per cent. Meanwhile, the DMK and the AIADMK, who are the two big parties here won 25.1 and 22.9 % of the votes in 2009. As such, I do expect the NDA to win up to 5 seats here. However, the there is much more to this coalition, at least from the BJP's point of view than just the seats. In the run up to the polls, all big leaders here, the likes of Amma, Karuna, Stalin, Vaiko and Alagiri have expressed their willingness to work with the saffronists. In a state where rivals do not see eye to eye and where differences are not restricted to politics, this is no mean feat. As such, if the BJP can finish as the largest party after the 2014 polls, it can join hands with either the AIADMK or the DMK, even if the NDA fails to perform well. Secondly, by joining hands with several smaller players, the party has proved that even under Modi it is capable of attracting allies, an art it perfected under former PM Vajpayee. In fact, getting together the DMDK and the PMK was a masterstroke. Lastly, by putting together such a formidable front, the saffron outfit has managed to isolate the Congress. The lack of friends has taken its toll. Finance Minister P Chidambaram and Shipping Minister G K Vasan have refused to contest the polls. While the party and its allies may not win many seats, it has managed to make several points.

TAMIL NADU'S MOST WANTED

DMDK'S VIJAYKANTH IS BEING WOOED BY BJP AND DMK

Courtesy: The Hindu

In the 1980s, actor Vijaykanth was considered amongst the top three superstars of the Tamil film industry along with Rajnikanth and Kamal Hassan. Now, three decades down the line, he is probably the most third most popular politician in the southern state, trailing the incumbent CM Jayalalitha and her predecessor Karunanidhi while leaving the likes of MDMK's Vaiko and PMK's Ambu Mani Ramadoss far behind. The journey has been remarkable; after delivering a rather long list of mediocre and below average cinematic performances throughout the early 2000s, 'Captain' as he is fondly called by fans and followers, took the big step into politics by forming the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) in 2005. Though he was the only candidate from his party to win the polls, he did make an impact with his party securing about 10 percent of the total votes. With a vow to dislodge the DMK from power, he entered into a pre-poll tie up with the AIADMK for the 2011 elections. Riding on the anti-incumbency wave, the alliance swept the polls with DMDK winning 29 of the 41 seats which it contested. After pushing the DMK to the third position and refusing to join the Jayalalitha cabinet, Vijaykanth became the Leader of the Opposition in the state assembly. Never in the history of Tamil Nadu had any party made such an impact in such little time since 1975 when another superstar, MGR romped to power after his public spat with Karunanidhi.

A careful analysis of his actions since 2010 indicates that Vijaykanth is aiming to do what many before him have tried to do but failed - be a third viable political option to the people of Tamil Nadu. In 2011 when there was a wave against the Dravida Munnetra Kazagham (DMK) regime which was embodied in corruption and nepotism, he allied with the AIADMK. Banking on anti-incumbency, he increased his number from one to a whopping twenty-nine seats in the next polls. Speaking at a press conference following the victory, he took the credit for pushing Karunanidhi out of power, claiming that it would have been impossible for Jaya to win if it was not for him. After this phenomenal performance, he refused to be a part of the government, preferring instead to become the Leader of the Opposition. In a state which is known to vote out its ruling regime each time, Vijay's decision to stay out of the government seemed to be the right one. This position gives him enough media coverage whereas staying away from power negates any effect that anti-incumbency can have in 2016. Now the former actor is training his guns against the ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazagham (AIADMK) government to garner public support. In what is seen as a symbolic show of strength, his party even contested the Delhi elections last year where it got 2300 votes. In fact with his popularity at its peak, Vijaykanth has become Tamil country's most wanted. Both the BJP and the DMK are doing their best to forge an alliance with him. However, wooing him will not be so easy; the DMDK supremo has laid down his condition for coalition - that he will himself lead any front that his outfit will be a part of.  

Considering that he had taken a vow to dislodge the DMK from power, it may come as a surprise for many that Karunanidhi is so eager to align with the DMDK. After Alagiri hit out at Vijaykanth in an interview to a TV channel, Karuna made it clear that he would not even hesitate to sack his elder son in case the Madurai strongman does not stop his tirade against his prospective alliance partner. Considering the abysmal situation that the party finds itself in, allying with the DMDK seems to be the only option if it wants to open its account in the General polls. The alleged involvement of leaders like Kanimozhi and former Union Telecom minister A Raja in the multi-crore 2G spectrum scam led to bad press. At the same time, the failure of the UPA government at the Centre to reprimand Sri Lanka for allegedly committing atrocities against Tamils in the Jaffna region during the final days of the civil war added to the already strong anti-incumbency wave. It was under these circumstances that the DMK was relegated to the third position in the 2011 state elections. Trying to pin the blame on the Congress for the disastrous defeat, Karuna walked out off the UPA at the Centre. On the other hand, after coming to power, Amma has not done anything dramatically wrong so as to suggest that she will not do well in 2014. It is expected that under present conditions, the AIADMK is all set to sweep the Lok Sabha. In fact, the party cadre has even projected her as the Prime Ministerial candidate. The DMK supremo has no option with him. With the party health further deteriorating following differences between his sons Alagiri and Stalin, joining hands with Vijaykanth might help the DMK electorally. In a state known for vindictive politics, Karunanidhi seems to be ready to forget all names that Captain had called him in 2011, just for political gains. As they say, there are no permanent friends or enemies in politics. The problem for the DMK strong man is that some sections within the DMDK are against allying with him. They believe that the partnership will only harm the party's prospects, adversely affecting its performance in 2016.

Apart from the DMK, another party that is trying to be cozy with the DMDK is the BJP. A marginal player in Tamil Nadu for many years, the saffron outfit is hoping that the Modi wave in the Hindi heartland will help it do well even in the southern states where it does not have any significant presence. The massive crowds witnessed at the Gujarat CM's rally in Trichy is an indication that the BJP is all set to see a surge in its support base in this part of the country. Dr Subramanyam Swamy's entry into the party will help it gain Brahmin votes. However, the party is not taking any chances and planning a grand alliance of smaller players including the MDMK, PMK and DMDK to fight the DMK and the AIADMK. Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazagham (MDMK) chief Vaiko expressed his desire to side with the saffron party ahead of the 2014 polls. His tough stance on the emotive issue of Lankan Tamils will help garner votes. The Paattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) which has a strong presence in the northern parts of the state, especially amongst the Vaniyar community, may play a spoil sport here. Though party leader Ramadoss is keen on a tie up with the BJP, he has opposed the inclusion of the DMDK in the front since both have similar political interests in northern Tamil Nadu. While the national party is hopeful that both the Dravidian parties will join hands with it, differences over seat sharing could jeopardize campaigning. It was earlier reported that even the Congress was keen on a tie-up with Captain with Rahul even wishing Captain on his 61^st birthday. Considering the anti-UPA wave in the nation and its indecisiveness over the Lankan issue, it seems that the veteran actor has ruled out this possibility for the time being.

The 2014 General polls will turn out to be extremely crucial for Vijaykanth. After its superb performance in 2011, it will be interesting to see if the DMDK can sustain the momentum which was punctured to some extent after several of its MLAs voted for AIADMK candidate in the Rajya Sabha elections, defying the party whip. A good show in the Lok Sabha polls of 2014 and a cabinet berth for some of his MPs at the Centre will help him increase his influence across the state. In case the manages to even touch a figure of 5 seats, he will move closer to his dream of being the third alternative in Tamil politics. On the other hand, you can expect few more of its MLAs to switch loyalties in case he draws a blank - a scenario where he will be back to square one. There is a feeling amongst many that it will be hard for the party to emulate its performance in 2011. They say that his alliance with AIADMK and the anti-DMK vote helped him win 20 odd seats. His inability to keep his flock together and his 'haughty' personality may further damage his credentials. Against this backdrop, the decision of allying either with the DMK or the BJP will not be an easy and will have a tremendous bearing on the future of the DMDK. Vijaykanth has made it clear that a decision in this regards will be made on February 2 at the party's state meet in Ulundurpet. Till then, all those wooing him have to wait and watch.

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: The Hindu
Original: DMDK alliance decision on February 2 (Link)