THE SHAH OF POLLS

AMIT SHAH'S ROLE IN BJP'S HISTORIC WIN

Amit Shah - Courtesy: India Today

The dust on the electoral battle field has settled and the incumbent PM Narendra Modi and his BJP has stormed to another term in power, this time with a much stronger mandate. The saffron party on its own won 303 seats while the NDA finished with a spectacular tally of 353 inching very close to a two-thirds majority in the Lower House of the Parliament. Though PM's popularity with the masses and the lack of a strong Opposition are cited as primary reasons for the BJP's solid showing at the hustings, it is easy to over look the role of the party President - Amit Shah under whose leadership, the saffron outfit has been transformed into a well oiled election machine that barring a few setbacks, has won most state polls in India over the last five years.

Considering that PM Modi has not been able to deliver on many of the promises he made during the run up to the 2014 polls, BJP was expected to drop seats, especially in the Hindi heartland where it had lost three crucial states in November last year. Agrarian distress and unemployment were believed to only make the matter worse for the ruling dispensation. Though the Balakot air strikes managed to turn the tide significantly in favor of the BJP, Shah's deft handling of alliances in crucial states, his efforts in strengthening the party organization apart from the his conscious efforts to expand the BJP's footprints in the East and North-East seem to have paid handsome dividends in form of massive gains throughout the country, barring deep South.

Strengthening the Party: Early in his tenure as the national president, buoyed by Modi's soaring popularity, Shah began a membership drive where people could join the saffron ranks by simply giving a missed call. Leaders right from the Panchayat to the national level were given targets and their performance was monitored. Within months, the BJP with a membership of over 10 crores became the largest political party in the world. Next, as four states went to polls, in the later half of 2014, the former Gujarat Home Minister began replicating his 2014 UP success story across the nation. Panna Pramukhs, responsible for about 8-10 families that figured on a single page of electoral rolls in a constituency, were appointed throughout the country. Key strategists from the RSS like Ram Madhav were roped into the party. In the run up to the national elections, programs like 'Mera Booth, Sabse Majbhoot' were launched to boost morale of party workers. Over the span of five years, Shah's many moves at strengthening the party, like those mentioned above, paid rich dividends as the enthused party cadre tapped in Modi's popularity to win a landslide victory.

Stitching Key Alliances: Once the pioneer of coalition politics in India, it was said that Modi's autocratic way of functioning was pushing key allies away from the BJP. Months before the polls, Shah began getting disgruntled NDA partners on board. Shiv Sena which had been the most trenchant opponent of the BJP and the PM in the last term was convinced to remain within the NDA in spite of the party supremo Uddhav Thackeray's earlier announcement of going to the hustings all alone. Nitish Kumar led JD-U was allocated 17 seats with the BJP even giving away seats that they had won in 2014 as a part of the seat sharing arrangement in Bihar. In Assam, the AGP which had left the NDA protesting over the Citizenship Bill too was convinced to back the saffron outfit for the national polls. In the south, the BJP put up an impressive front including the ruling AIADMK, Ramdos led PMK, actor turned politician Vijaykant led DMDK and so on.

As the results started trickling in on 23rd May, Shah's effort seem to have bore fruits. Though the DMK led front swept Tamil Nadu, in other places it was the NDA that trounced the UPA. JD-U won all but one of the 17 seats it contested as the NDA won 39 of the 40 seats in Bihar. Shiv Sena won 18 of the 23 seats it contested in Maharashtra with the NDA ending with a solid tally of 41 in Maharashtra. In Assam, the NDA once again proved its might bagging 9 of the 14 seats in the state.

Expanding party's footprints: Perhaps, Amit Shah's biggest achievement as the BJP national president has been his ability to expand the party's foot prints in hitherto unknown lands. Till 2014, the saffron outfit was considered as party with its base in the Hindi heartland and western India. Under Shah though, the party has made significant in roads into states like Odisha, Bengal and the North-East.

The BJP first emerged as the real challenger to Naveen Patnaik in the 2017 Panchayat polls when it stood second to the BJD. In the national polls, the party won 8 seats, an improvement of 7 over its performance in the last Lok Sabha elections. In Telangana, the saffron outfit shocked CM KCR and his TRS by winning 4 seats. This is an accomplishment considering that the pink party had swept the state polls held earlier this year. In the North East, the BJP and its partners in the NEDA won 18 of the 25 parliamentary seats. This region, till sometime back had minimal BJP presence and was see as a Congress bastion. But the story of 2019 polls was Bengal where the saffron outfit did the unthinkable, winning 18 seats and emerging as the biggest threat to CM Mamta Bannerjee's TMC.

Shah's hard work and perseverance seem to have caught the eye of the PM too. Shah has been inducted in the cabinet and is now seen as the new No 2 in the pecking order. The Chanakya who is credited for transforming the fortunes of the party is now the country's Home Minister. Can he now transform the fortunes of the country. Only time will tell.

BIHAR 2015: THE VERDICT

BJP SWEPT AWAY AS LALU HELPS NITISH EARN A HAT-TRICK

Though many were expecting Bihar to be a close contest after a bitterly fought campaign, with leader from both camps often indulging in 'inappropriate' language and even going below the belt on some occasions, the people of India's third most populous state have delivered a resounding verdict, choosing the 'Mahaghatbandhan' led by by their incumbent CM Nitish Kumar over PM Narendra Modi's NDA. In many ways, it was a fairy tale come back for the JD-U chief; after a series of blunders that threatened to jeopardize his political career altogether, he has 'risen' from the ashes, beating the PM with whom, he has had some scores to settle with. While Kumar is all set to retain the chair of the CM, the 'Man of the Series' is certainly Lalu Prasad Yadav. The former Bihar CM who was once Nitish's staunchest rival is in my opinion, one of the biggest factors responsible for the 'grand' victory of the mega alliance. For the BJP and its allies though, the results have been crushing; saying that the NDA 'lost' the polls would be a massive under statement since they have been 'routed' with the regional front winning thrice as many seats as the BJP led coalition.

The highlight of the Bihar state polls 2015 for me has been the manner in which Nitish, Lalu and most importantly, the cadre of the two parties have resolved the bitter differences that existed amongst them in the past and literally blown away the BJP and its allies. While there is no doubt that this was an alliance to retain their political significance, the JD-U chief and the RJD supremo must be credited for sticking together in spite of varying styles of functioning and reaching consensus on all important issues including the post of CM, seat sharing arrangement, campaign strategy et all. Though there were some murmurs of dissent within their ranks initially, the cadre too seem to have worked. Remarkably, the regional front even managed to transfer their respective vote banks to candidates of the alliance across the state. The electoral campaign of the grand alliance was pretty simple. While the soft-spoken Nitish Kumar harped on the development bandwagon, the more 'brash' Lalu took on the hard line, hitting out at the PM and his aide Amit Shah at regular intervals. Of course, the many blunders from the saffron camp including the failure to project a local leader, the beef controversy and the 'unwarranted' statements regarding reservations made by the RSS chief only gave more ammunition to the regional players.

The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) finished as the single largest party in the state assembly, winning 80 of the 101 seats it contested, its best tally in over a decade. The Janata Dal - United (JD-U) finished with a tally of 71 whereas the Congress seems to have been a big beneficiary of the verdict. The INC won nearly 70% of the total seats it contested.

For the BJP, its dream of a saffron government in Patna was crashed after its alliance finished with a paltry tally of 58 seats. The fact remains that in spite of the NDA's superlative performance in the 2014 General Elections, the saffron outfit was always the 'underdog' considering that the two regional parties had joined hands to counter it. The BJP tried to counter this by roping in the PM to address over 30 rallies in the state and roping in JD-U rebel and former CM Manjhi with an eye on the Extremely Backward Class votes. However, a spate of errors on its part, some of which I have already recounted above cost it dearly. Some of the leaders of the party or belonging to its affiliates only made the matters worse by raking up communal and casteist sentiments further strengthening the anti-NDA votes. Spoilers like the AIMIM, the SP and the NCP failed to make any considerable dent in the Opposition's tally. Moreover, Nitish's record as a 'capable' CM and the lack of any substantial anti-incumbency on the ground meant that the BJP was wiped off Bihar.

The charts displayed here are created using the free online tool - ChartGo (Link).

DO OR DIE...

Lalu Yadav - Facebook

While most political commentators dipped their pens in black ink and wrote the political obituary of former CM Lalu Prasad Yadav after his party was reduced to mere four parliamentary seats in the 2014 Union Polls, the 'unholy and unexpected' alliance between him and his bête noire - Nitish Kumar seems to have given the RJD supremo one more chance to remain relevant in a state which he dominated for nearly two decades. In the run up to the big polls, the split in the NDA was seen by many as the 'opening' that Lalu needed to stage a political comeback after being on the fringes for nearly five years and his conviction in the multi-crore Fodder Scam; unfortunately, the Modi wave was just too strong for him to regain his lost glory. However, the realignment of political forces in the state with the coming together of the former Janata Dal constituents to take on a resurgent BJP could well be the opportunity that has been eluding the Yadav leader for long. With the sword of Damocles hanging over his head, Bihar 2015 has become a 'Do or Die' scenario for one of India's most colorful yet controversial politician.

Nobody understands the gravity of the situation more than Lalu himself. The astute politician that he is, the sheer number of 'sacrifices' that he has made in the last few months should make it clear how much importance the former Rail Minister attaches to the poll verdict. Firstly, in spite of his bitter rivalry with his one time comrade turned foe Nitish Kumar, the Yadav strongman agreed to a coalition with the latter's JD-U, the same party that has eroded Lalu's Muslim and lower caste vote base. Many were skeptical of such an alliance considering the bad blood between the two regional leaders and their ideological differences. However, Lalu on his part should be appreciated for holding on to 'Maha Ghatbandhan' in the wake of many differences. Secondly, aware of the popularity of the incumbent CM amongst the masses, the RJD supremo buckled under pressure, allowing the mega coalition to project Nitish as its CM nominee. This is so much different than the Lalu Prasad we have known over the years; remember, it was he who famously stalled Mulayum Singh Yadav's bid to become the PM back in the nineties. Not only this, he also agreed to fight the same number of seats as the JD-U, something that many believed was just not possible, more so after the RJD conceded the CM's chair to Nitish. Surely, the former CM has gone out of the way to ensure that his alliance remains strong in its battle against the NDA.

Lalu clearly understands his role in the campaign for grand alliance; his conviction in the Fodder Scam and the pathetic state of law and order in the state during his tenure as the CM make him the prime target of the BJP which has termed his days at the helm of affairs in Patna as 'Jungle Raj'. However, the RJD chief is the master in caste based politics, a factor that continues to resonate with the electorate here even today. No wonder than that he is playing the caste card to win over the voters. The recent comments by RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat calling for the retrospection of reservation policy in the country and the spate in the killings of Dalits in the BJP ruled Haryana has given more ammunition for the Yadav strongman to train his gun at the saffron camp. Lalu has been the darling of the Muslims ever since he stopped Advani's Rath Yatra back in 1990 and he continues to flaunt his 'secular' credentials particularly in the wake of the Dadri lynching, hoping to stitch back his fabled Muslim - Yadav combination that was the base which catapulted him to three straight wins in the state. And in his vintage style, the Rashtriya Janata Dal boss has not shied away from attacking PM Modi even calling him a 'Brahm Pishchak' on one occassion.

Meanwhile, an indication of his declining clout in Bihar was evident from the defeat of his eldest daughter Misa Bharati from the Paliputra parliamentary seat in May last year. With his sons - Tej Pratap and Tejaswi in the fray for the state polls this time around, the stakes for Lalu Yadav are much higher. In case, the saffron alliance manages to sweep the state and the RJD fails to put up a good show, serious questions will be raised over the future of his party. In the past two years, several of the RJD's leaders including Ramkripal Yadav and Pappu Yadav have either deserted the outfit or have been shown the door. In case, the party fails to perform well in the scheduled polls, one can expect another exodus of the few remaining leaders from the party outside its first family. Not only will it relegate Lalu to the fringes, but will also take the gas out of the RJD's lantern. The Yadav strongman will certainly want his sons to have a good start in their political careers and for this to happen, a victory for the mega coalition in Bihar is essential.

Speaking to the media, Lalu had once remarked 'Jab tak rahega samose mein aloo, tab tak rahega Bihar mein Lalu'. While the starchy vegetable will continue to be a part of one of India's most famous snack for a long time, the November 12 verdict will decide the fate of the RJD chief and his party. Till then, we need to keep our fingers crossed.

P.S: I have started a new blog - Raajaniti (Link) dedicated to Indian politics. Henceforth, I will put up posts relating to Indian politics on both of these blogs. 

Also, I would request you to check out the new blog and please provide your valuable feedback.

ANALYZING THE BY-ELECTIONS

FOUR LESSONS THAT THE BY-POLLS TEACH US

Wow! Who could have predicted this? Less than four months after that landslide victory in favor of the BJP, not many of us would have thought that the results of the by-polls could be so different. As if the 3-0 rout at the hands of the Congress in Uttarakhand was not enough, the defeat in Bihar and the decimation in Uttar Pradesh have put a question mark over the perception that the BJP would make inroads into hitherto unknown lands, riding on Modi Mania. At the same time, the regional players, most of which were obliterated in the General Elections put up a good show, laying to rest 'fears' that the country was heading towards a two-party rule. Besides, the Congress too showed signs of improvement; the 120 odd year old party does have a future in our democracy. Analyzing the results from 14 states that have seen snap polls, here the four key takeaways from the August-September 2014 by-polls.

May 2014 was a victory for Modi, not for the BJP: I remember this one episode during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls when former BJP president Rajnath Singh had to change one of his tweets from 'Abki bar BJP Sarkar' to 'Abki bar Modi Sarkar'. Psephologists and political observers have for months debated whether the magical numbers that the saffron camp got in the General Elections was an endorsement of Modi or a vote for his party or a combination of both. I believe that the by-polls has settled this debate. Nothing else can explain why the BJP fared so badly in the by-elections in spite of that superlative performance it registered less than 150 days ago. There is no doubt that even without Modi the NDA would finish as the largest alliance after the big polls; however, there was no way that it could cross the 200 mark, forget 342. Modi's excellent oratory skills, his charisma an his portrayal as a 'pro-development' leader helped his party move from the Opposition benches to the Treasury benches in the Parliament. Thus the saffron camp was right in breaking ties with Nitish and suppressing the anti-Moi camp lead by Advani.

The Satraps strike back: For all those who wrote the obituaries of the likes of Mulayum, Mayawati, Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar in the aftermath of the May elections, the results of the by-polls have proved the satraps still have a future in the politics of the country, so what if it is not as bright as it was some time back. Bihar witnessed political churning with Lalu's RJD joining hands with Nitish Kumar's JD(U) and the INC to take on the NDA. The Mega-alliance helped the Manjhi government to survive the test on the floor of the state assembly and then went on to beat the NDA 6-4 in the ten constituencies where elections were held in August this year. In neighboring Uttar Pradesh, the ruling Samajwadi Party performed out of its skin to wrests as many as eight seats from the saffron camp. This in spite of the fact that the BJP tried to cash in on communal tensions that have gripped the western parts of UP over the last year.

The revival of the Congress: After being reduced to mere 44 seats in May which saw many of its stalwarts biting the dust, the results of the by-polls have enthused a bit of life in the grand old party which many believe was in its last leg. The rot in the organizational structure is still there and its present leadership is insipid. But a string of rather unexpected victories over its arch rival is what the doctor prescribed the INC ahead of the state polls scheduled later this year. In the hill state of Uttarakhand where in the incumbent regime was looking shaky after the defection of Satpal Maharaj to the BJP ahead of the May elections, the party won swept won all the three seats. In Rajasthan where it was literally bulldozed by the saffronists, first in 2013 and May 2014, the INC bagged three out of the four seats. Similarly, in Karnataka, Gujarat and MP, it managed to bag constituencies held by the BJP. The Congress needs to make sure that the momentum is taken forward; At the same time, it is important to address issues that are plaguing the party and address them at the earliest.

The fight for the states is heating up: After that stupendous win, there were many who felt that the BJP, riding high on its success, would sweep the four states that will see polls being conducted in the near future. In fact, in all these states, the saffron outfit put up an impressive show - the NDA won 42 of the 48 seats in Maharashtra; seven of its 10 candidates were elected in Haryana; it created history and swept Jammu while painting the national capital in orange. As such, it was expected that the party would not find it difficult to win all of these states. However, the results of the by-polls has put the BJP on the back foot and has shaken the confidence of its supporters. The break-up of the 25 year old BJP-Shiv Sena alliance has made matters worse in the western state. In Haryana too, the Bishnoi led HJC has pulled the plug on its coalition with the BJP. In Delhi, the AAP's string operation has 'exposed' the party's back door efforts to bag power. Besides, in Jammu Kashmir, the PDP seems to be edging the saffron outfit.

For more on the August-September 2014 By-polls, click here (Link)

MAHASANGRAM - Part III

SENA CHIEF TALKS TOUGH AHEAD OF STATE POLLS

Courtesy: Afternoon

After being edged out by the mega coalition in Bihar and facing shock defeats in Karnataka and MP, see who is preaching the BJP now. It's their own ally and Sena pramukh Uddhav Thackeray. In an editorial in his party's mouthpiece - the Saamna, Uddhav has said that the saffron outfit's defeat in the by-elections needs to be a warning bell for the 'Mahayuti' or the Grand Alliance in Maharashtra. Despite of the coalition decimating the UPA in the big polls earlier this year, he cautioned that victory is in no way guaranteed in November state elections. As if to drive home his point, Thackeray junior has emphasized that the parameters that the voters keep in mind while electing their MLA is drastically different from those the consider before making their choice for the Lok Sabha elections. Taking a dig at his alliance partner, the Shiv Sena chief has said that the state cannot be won just by talking about the 'Modi wave'. Still coming to terms with a rather embarrassing defeat and the controversy regarding Rajnath Singh's family, Uddhav's veiled attacks were the last thing that the BJP would have liked to face. However, with the saffron outfit not very keen to play second fiddle in the assembly elections, the BJP's loss provided a nice opportunity for the Sena to hit back at its oldest partner and show them who is the boss, at least as far as the western state is concerned.

The relations between the saffron allies have been far from cordial in the last few months. So 'confident' had the cadre become after their resounding victory in the Lok Sabha polls that time back, some sections within the BJP had asked the party leadership to break off its ties with Matoshri and join hand with Raj Thackeray led MNS so that they could dictate terms. Though such plans did not materialize, Amit Shah's speech on his official appointment as the new president of the BJP where he said that his party would form the next government in Mumbai has certainly not gone well with the SS. Considering that Shah is extremely close to the PM, there is no doubt that his views on this matter have the endorsement from Modi too. This certainly puts the Sena in a tough position. After all, it has always been the dominant NDA partner as far as Maharashtra is concerned. By hitting out at the BJP, Uddhav is subtly trying to drive home an important point - the Shiv Sena is not Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC) and he is certainly not Kuldeep Bishnoi. While the saffron outfit may have not adhered to the coalition dharma with its smaller ally in Haryana, the Sena is not going to allow itself to be 'bullied' by the BJP. With talks regarding seat-sharing arrangements coming up in the next few days, the Sena's aggressive stance is seen by many as a clear message to its saffron partner that it will lead the 'Mahayuti' in the state polls this November.

Though it did extremely well in the General polls, the real test for the tiger will be in the upcoming state elections. The regional player which has been put of power in the state for 15 years has been weakened following the split in its ranks after Raj Thackeray launched the MNS and the death of its founder and one of the most popular yet controversial politicians in the country - Balasaheb Thackeray in 2012. Ever since Uddhav was placed on the gaddi in 2013, there were rumors of discontent against his style of leadership which was termed as 'incompetent' and 'uninspiring'. Even before the May elections, a host of big leaders switched over to the UPA, claiming that the new party chief was not in touch with the Sainiks on the ground, an art that his father had mastered. Aware that the state elections are a 'Do or Die' battle for the political survival of both him and his outfit, Uddhav has broken off all traditions and has made it clear that he was ready to become the Chief Minister of Maharashtra if the SS-BJP alliance comes to power. While his father had the charisma to hold the Sena together from his base in Matoshri, the SS chief realizes that only power could give him the authority to prevent any further revolts within his outfit. With so much on the line, there is no way that he is going to be cowed down by the BJP in his own backyard. As the various partners within the 'Mahayuti' sit together to finalize the seat-sharing terms, Uddhav Tahackeray has, without mincing any words told the BJP to control is 'ambitions' and not to take the Shiv Sena lightly.

For more posts in this series: Mahasangram (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: Afternoon 
Original: Maha Yuti seals seat-sharing pact (Link)

NEW PRESIDENT, NEW CHALLENGES

CHALLENGES BEFORE AMIT SHAH AS HE IS APPOINTED BJP PRESIDENT

Courtesy: In.Com

Indeed the BJP fought hard and won a memorable victory in the 2014 General Elections. After being out of power at the Centre for a decade, the saffron outfit made a strong comeback; in fact with 282 seats, it registered the best tally for a single party in the last three decades. A large credit for this splendid performance should rightly go to PM Narendra Modi; the former Gujarat CM used his 'no nonsense, pro-development' image to the full advantage; first he re-energized the cadre and then projected himself as the only viable alternative to a nation that was simmering with anti-incumbency and waiting for an opportunity to teach the 'corrupt' Congress a lesson that it is unlikely to forget soon. Of course while the victory was a collective effort on the part of the saffron party, rather the NDA and the entire Sangh Parivar, one of the heroes of this victory is Modi's trusted lieutenant and former minister in Gujarat cabinet - Amit Shah.

The controversial politician who was even jailed briefly for his alleged involvement in the Sohrabuddin 'fake' encounter case was deputed by Modi to Uttar Pradesh as soon as he was appointed as the head of the BJP's campaign team for the big polls last year (Link). And boy, the move proved to be a master stroke, isn't it? In about an year that he spent in the 'mother of all states', Shah used his political acumen to completely re-organize the local party structure; he cut anti-Modi elements within the saffron camp like Vinay Katiyar to size, entered into alliances with smaller outfits and social organizations, gave 'provocative' speeches (Link) and even chose candidates. His hard work paid off; the BJP and its partner - the Apna Dal (AD) won 73 of the 80 seats from Uttar Pradesh even bettering its previous best tally of 50 odd seats at the height of the Ram Janma Bhoomi agitation way back in 1991 (Link). As such, after former President Rajnath Singh was sworn in as the Home Minister in the Modi cabinet, there were no surprises as the master strategist was appointed as the president of the BJP earlier this week.

Hailed by many, especially in the Hindu right wing as a modern day Chanakya, Shah has been rewarded for the brilliant result that he got for the party in the big state. Winning over 90 percent of the total seats in a vast and diverse state like UP wherein voting patterns are massively influenced by factors like caste and religion is no small task. Now let me throw in some statics that will help you comprehend the magnitude of Amit Shah's achievements. The BJP in UP won more seats than what the UPA won across the country. Of the seven seats that the NDA did not bag here, five went to the Yadavs and two to the Gandhis. I understand that certain segments do have strong reservations against him, especially considering his alleged role in 'communal' activities in the past. However, rather sadly, the standards in our politics are so low that it is very difficult to find politicians with a 'clean' image. Moreover, knowing that the new PM likes to work with people close to him, there is little doubt that the appointment has his blessings too. After all, the two have been close since the early 80s when they worked as pracharaks for the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS).

Politics is tough business and there is no time to rest on past laurels. And probably few know it more than Amit Shah. Though results of the General Polls may still be fresh in the minds of BJP leaders and its supporters, the Gujarati leader knows that his work is cut out. While the saffron outfit and its allies may have a big majority in the Lok Sabha, the government is still far away from the halfway mark in the Upper House. This makes the upcoming state elections extremely crucial, after all a vast majority of the members here are elected by members of the state legislature. In the next six months, at least three states - Maharashtra (Link), Haryana (Link) and Jammu Kashmir (Link) will go to the polls. One has to remember that all three are presently being ruled by the Congress and its allies. Amongst them, the three account for 28 of the 250 seats in the Rajya Sabha. To add to them, there are a few other states that may see snap polls anytime soon. The Delhi assembly has been in suspended animation for over eight months (Link); the Uttarakhand government is looking shaky after the defection of Pauri MP Satpal Maharaj to the saffron side after being side-lined in the Congress for long (Link); the JMM-INC alliance in Jharkhand is on a sticky wicket and the drubbing that the allies got in the General Elections has made the matters worse. Shah has to make sure that the momentum from the General Polls is taken forward and the party and its coalition partners win each of these states.

Another thing at the top of Shah's priority list is expansion in the East and the South where the party has largely been an insignificant player. In fact, the new president has made this pretty clear via twitter a few days after settling in his new role. A hallmark of the saffron outfit's stupendous victory earlier this year was that the BJP did extremely well even outside its traditional base in the Hindi heart land. While we all know that Modi magic played a key role in this, it is up to Shah & Co. to make sure that this win helps them carve out a solid vote bank for the BJP outside its 'comfort zone'. After winning all three parliamentary seats in Jammu and Ladakh regions of J&K, the saffronists are expected to at least double its last tally of 11 seats in the state assembly which will make it a sought after ally for the Mufti-led PDP in case of a hung assembly. The rout faced by the Left Front in Bengal (Link) and Kerala (Link), plus the improvement in BJP's vote share here has given a big fillip to the local party organization. In the coming years, one should not be surprised if these two states feature high in the party's future plans. In Tamil Nadu too, the outfit's ability to put together a rainbow alliance (Link) and then win the Kannyakumari parliamentary seat has shown that it is carving out a space for itself in state politics. Surely, this is an opening that Shah would like to capitalize on. The good will earned in Telangana (Link) over the BJP's support to the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh can be leveraged to its advantage and you can bet that this will surely be a part of the new president's agenda. On similar terms, the good show put up by the BJP in Haryana, Assam (Link) and Arunachal Pradesh (Link) in the last General Elections provides a golden opportunity for Shah to consolidate the saffron party's position here too.

While the margin of BJP's victory may undermine the role played by its allies in 2014, one has to realize that the BJP cannot afford to break its friendship with any of its existing 20 odd partners. Although the Modi mania worked in the General Elections, there is no doubt that the allies (Link) are important in state elections. Moreover, retaining existing friends and looking out for new ones will only further isolate its nemesis - the Congress. With the Maharashtra elections just around the corner, all is certainly not well between the BJP and its oldest ally - the Shiv Sena (SS). There were rumors that the local BJP leaders wanted the high command to scrap its existing seat sharing arrangement with the SS with some even suggesting a tie-up with Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS). The new president has to make sure that its 'Mahayuti' that swept the western state earlier this year remains intact and all differences with Uddhav Thackeray's outfit are sorted out at the earliest. Also, greater co-ordination is required with Paswan's LJP after the consolidation of anti-BJP block - the JD(U), the RJD and the Congress considering that Bihar assembly completes it term next year. Also, it is in the interest of the saffron camp if the half rainbow alliance in Tamil Nadu is intact, at least till it can get AIADMK in the NDA, which in itself is an arduous task. Also, it is extremely crucial to have at least working relation with other big regional players including K Chandrashekar Rao's TRS, Jaganmohan Redddy's YSRCP, Mufti's PDP and Badruddin Ajmal's AIUDF.

Challenge Number 4 will be pacifying the seniors who were unhappy with Modi and Rajnath Singh for not considering their views during the course of the 2014 polls. Now that the BJP is back in the government after a gap of 10 years with that record shattering win, it will be a good for the party if Shah manages to placate the old guard. With his vast experience in Indian politics and in the functioning of the government, Lal Krishna Advani or Murali Manohar Joshi are assets that the outfit cannot afford to sideline. Also their connections with other political parties can prove to be helpful to break deadlocks in the Parliament. Meanwhile, there were reports that Jaswant Singh was keen to rejoin the saffron camp after his rebellion against the party in Barmer ended in a flop show. Getting Jaswant and his son - MLA Manvendra will send the right signal. We all know that popular southern movie star Pawan Kalyan played a key role in the TDP-BJP aliance's victory in the state as well as parliamentary polls. If the new president can somehow manage to get Pawan to merge his Jan Sena into the saffron fold, the party will be furthered strengthened in Andhra. Also Kalyan's mass appeal will help to reduce its dependence on Chandrababu Naidu. Besides, like Narendra Modi did a few months back, Shah should make an attempt to get back former BJP leader Babulal Marandi (Link) back into the party. Though he had rejected Modi's offer earlier, the rout his party faced will certainly force the JVM chief to reconsider his decision. Also, ahead of the Jharkhand assembly polls, it will further improve BJP's electoral prospects.

In the big win that the BJP won this summer, it is easy to forget that the party won just 31 percent of the total votes. In other words, considering that the NDA as a whole got about 40 percent of the votes, every 6 out of 10 Indians did not cast their vote in favor of Modi. The learning that Shah can draw from this is that in spite of being the largest political party in India in terms of numbers, the BJP is still not acceptable to many Indians. There are many who continue to associate the outfit with right wing fundamentalism, accusing it to be a party of 'Hindus' in general and 'upper castes' in particular. This also keeps a sizable chunk of the political spectrum from doing any business with the party. It will indeed be interesting to see how the Gujarati leader combats this 'perception'. Though it is good to promote 'meritocracy', Shah has to be more practical. Considering our diversity in terms of religion, caste and gender while taking decision, especially during ticket distribution will help. Another worry for many 'liberals' is that the party will be under pressure from its 'bosses' in Nagpur to promote the agenda of the RSS. Again, it is but imperative for Shah to let the RSS top brass know that it is under no obligation of either the RSS or any right wing organization like the VHP or the Bajrang Dal. Measures such has increasing the representation fo women inside the party and promoting internal democracy will also do a whole lot of good for the saffron outfit.

Born into a middle class Gujarati family in Mumbai, Amit Shah has climbed up the ladder of success only through his hard work and dedication. A Modi loyalist since the early 80s, he has excelled in every challenge that has been thrown at him be it the decimation of the Congress hold in rural Gujarat, turning around the fortunes of the Ahmedabad District Co-opertaive Bank or leading the party to an emphatic win in UP. While he has been rewarded for the results that he got for his party, heading the BJP will truly be a test of character for Modi's Man Friday. All his actions will be scrutinized and controversies will be created where none exists. Will he succeed in his latest assignment..... Well, only time will tell!

IMAGES

(1) Courtesy: In.Com
Original: Amit Shah Photos (Link)

THE HALF RAINBOW COALITION

CAN THE BJP AND ITS ALLIES POSE A FORMIDABLE CHALLENGE IN TN

The saffron outfit seems to be in an envious position in Tamil Nadu. No, it is not because there is some NaMo wave in the Tamil country. Nor is it that the BJP is all set to win a large chunk of the 39 seats in the southern state. In my opinion, one of the biggest highlights for the party here is that both of the two big Dravidian parties have refrained from attacking it. While Amma, who many consider to be a 'natural ally' of the BJP for her pro-Brahmin stance, may have decided to go solo in the upcoming polls, she has never attacked Modi in her rallies. The DMK which has been under fire for the alleged role of its top leaders in the multi-crore 2G scam too has gone soft on its former ally in the NDA. Having walked out of the UPA over the Lankan Tamil issue, the party supremo Karunanidhi had referred to the Gujarat CM as a 'close friend'. Even his estranged son Alagiri has backed Modi for the top post. On the other hand, the INC has failed to tie up with any party in Tamil Nadu and many of its top guns, including Finance Minister Chidambaram have refused to contest the polls. Apart from being wooed by both the AIADMK and the DMK, the saffron party has stitched together a rainbow alliance down south, joining hands with several smaller Dravidian outfits. There is little doubt that the BJP, which may lead the next government at the Centre is in the driver's seat. By forming such a formidable coalition in a state where it has nominal presence, the party has showcased its clout in the political sphere just on the eve of the 2014 General Elections.

The biggest catch for the BJP in the Tamil country has been 'Captain' Vijaykant. The Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazagham (DMDK) was also being wooed by the DMK and the Congress. In fact, when Alagiri had lashed out at the DMDK chief, the DMK patriarch had publicly rapped his son. Having won 10 percent of the votes in the state in the 2009 General Elections and finishing as the second largest party in the last state legislative polls, he will lead the NDA in the 2014, putting up candidates in 14 constituencies. The second largest partner in the grand coalition is Ramadoss' Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) which has been allocated eight seats. Popular in the northern and north-western parts of the state, especially amongst the Vaniyars, it took considerable effort on part of the BJP to get the two rivals - the DMDK and the PMK together. Even now it seems that the differences between the two parties who have common political interests, have not yet disappeared completely. Perhaps, the most vocal supporter of the candidature of the Gujarat CM in Tamil Nadu has been the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) chief Vaiyapuri Gopalaswamy, more popularly known as Vaiko. The pro-LTTE leader will field candidates in seven parliamentary constituencies. The Kongunadu Makkal Desiya Katchi (KMDK) which has some influence in the Kongu region and the Indiya Jananayaka Katchi (IJK) has been allocated one seat each. Meanwhile, the BJP will nominate candidates in eight seats.

	Political Party	Seats Won	Vote Share
1	Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazagham (DMDK)	-	10.3
2	Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK)	-	6.4
3	Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK)	-	3.7
4	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	-	2.3
	National Democratic Alliance (NDA)	-	22.3

The above chart shows the seats won and the vote share of the major constituents of the NDA in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls.

Now let us consider the chances of the NDA in the 2014 General Elections. If we add up the vote share of the parties that form a part of the alliance today, we see that it is an impressive 22.3 per cent. Meanwhile, the DMK and the AIADMK, who are the two big parties here won 25.1 and 22.9 % of the votes in 2009. As such, I do expect the NDA to win up to 5 seats here. However, the there is much more to this coalition, at least from the BJP's point of view than just the seats. In the run up to the polls, all big leaders here, the likes of Amma, Karuna, Stalin, Vaiko and Alagiri have expressed their willingness to work with the saffronists. In a state where rivals do not see eye to eye and where differences are not restricted to politics, this is no mean feat. As such, if the BJP can finish as the largest party after the 2014 polls, it can join hands with either the AIADMK or the DMK, even if the NDA fails to perform well. Secondly, by joining hands with several smaller players, the party has proved that even under Modi it is capable of attracting allies, an art it perfected under former PM Vajpayee. In fact, getting together the DMDK and the PMK was a masterstroke. Lastly, by putting together such a formidable front, the saffron outfit has managed to isolate the Congress. The lack of friends has taken its toll. Finance Minister P Chidambaram and Shipping Minister G K Vasan have refused to contest the polls. While the party and its allies may not win many seats, it has managed to make several points.

MAHARASHTRA & LOK SABHA 2014

UPA OR NDA: WHO WILL WIN THIS FACE-OFF?

With 48 seats, Maharashtra is numerically the second most important state from the perspective of the upcoming General Elections. In this key state, the battle lines have been drawn as the UPA comprising of the Congress and the NCP are taking on a formidable opposition stitched together by the BJP. Dubbed as the 'Mahayuti' or the 'Grand Alliance', it includes the Shiv Sena, the Republican Party of India (Athavale), the Swabhiman Shektari Sanghatana (SSS) and the Rashtriya Samaj Party (RSP). While the saffron outfit may have built up a strong coalition to take on the ruling regime, there is a constant fear that Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNA), which has stayed away from the formation, may cause a split in the Marathi votes, thereby helping the UPA like it did in 2009. Meanwhile, with the term of the present legislative assembly ending in about six months time, it is highly likely that even the Lok Sabha polls may be dominated by a mixture of local as well as national issues. 

ISSUES

(1) Anti-incumbency... at State and the Centre: The Congress and the NCP has been in power in Maharashtra since 1999. Now this is certainly a fact they can be proud of. But the problem is that the kind of anti-incumbency against the Congress-NCP combine is huge and many believe that after reaching the peak, its performance can only go downwards from here. Besides, all is not smooth between the two alliance partners. Although he did rule out any formal partnership with the BJP, NCP supremo Sharad Pawar and his party colleague Praful Patel have both dismissed the need for a debate on BJP’s PM candidate Narendra Modi’s role in the Gujarat riots. With 'Secularism' being the glue that keeps the UPA together, Pawar's clean chit to Modi has certainly raised many eyebrows.

Adding to their woes is the fact that there is anti-incumbency against the UPA II government at the Centre. Both the Congress and the NCP have been in power in New Delhi since 2004. The disastrous performance of the Manmohan Singh government is going to hit them hard in most states and Maharashtra is no exception. You can expect the BJP and the Senas to raise topics like price rise and inflation on which the Central government has failed to deliver.

(2) Corruption: If there is one issue that UPA II will ever be remembered for, it is for sure going to be its inability to tackle corruption in the country. Countless scams including 2G, Common Wealth Games, Coal-gate and Chopper-gate have proved that neither the grand old party nor the UPA government has the guts to tackle this menace. And the government in Mumbai too is not far behind. The names of several top Congress leaders including former Chief Ministers Vilasrao Deshmukh, Ashok Chavan, Home Minister Sushilkumar Shinde and Shivajirao Nilangekar were named in an inquiry into the Aadarsh Society scam which was partially accept by the state government, that too after a public rap from the Gandhis. Similarly, the multi-crore Irrigation scam and the alleged role of NCP leader Ajit Pawar is another blot on the incumbent regime.

(3) The MNS factor: Former BJP President Nitin Gadkari’s meetings with Raj Thackeray led to many speculations over the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena entering the grand alliance. Considering the domestic politics in the Thackeray household, it seems next to impossible for the two Senas to come together. The UPA is heavily banking on Raj to split the Marathi votes and this seems to be its only hope to end up with a decent tally. However, there were reports in some sections of the media that the MNS may not contest the Lok Sabha polls at all and rather concentrate on the state elections, in bid to consolidate its standings. If this is true, then the BJP and its allies can be expected to walk away with sizable number of seats from Maharashtra.

CONTENDERS

Now that the formations are clear, I think that we should talk about the alliances and their chances instead of focusing on individual parties.

(1) The UPA: The Congress is on a sticky wicket. Prithviraj Chavan who was handpicked by Sonia Gandhi to be the Chief Minister has done a fair job. However, the rejection and then the partial acceptance of the Aadarsh Inquiry report – a move which seems to have been taken under political compulsions by his government will hit his personal credibility. The scam has dented the prospects of the grand old party and is a near death blow to the political ambitions of Ashok Chavan. With Vilasrao Deshmukh dead, it is up to the SC leader and Home Minister Sushilkumar Shinde to lead the Congress campaign here. As such it will be in the interest of the Congress if the leader from Solapur can control his language – his remarks on media and Arvind Kejriwal are only going to woo the people away from the UPA.

The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) has never looked so weak ever since its inception in 1999 (Link). Like its erstwhile UPA ally - the DMK, the NCP has become synonymous with corruption. Most opinion polls predict that Pawar's outfit may be reduced to single digits. Unlike the great captains who prefer to go down with the sinking ship, the Maratha strongman has got himself elected to the Rajya Sabha. Pawar's daughter Supriya Sule and former cabinet minister Praful Patel will lead the party's charge in Maharashtra. Besides, the NCP will be hoping that its prominent state leaders like Sule's cousin Ajit and former deputy CMs R R Patil and Chaggan Bhujbal will help the outfit do well in their respective strongholds.

(2) The NDA: After warming the Opposition benches for long, the saffronists are sensing victory. With political analysts believing that Maharashtra could one of the states that could see them do well, the BJP has tried its best to give itself a good chance from here. The entry of the RPI (A) and the SSS into the NDA fold will help the coalition woo Dalits and farmers. More importantly, it has put its house in order. Earlier reports suggesting fiction between the Gopinath Munde and Nitin Gadkari factions of the party in Maharashtra have all but disappeared. The BJP is expected to ride on the NaMo wave and counter the UPA on issues like corruption, inflation and economic slump.

The Shiv Sena (SS), which was written off about three years ago will be fighting to retain its political significance in the state. Though the party witnessed a split in its ranks after the dynamic Raj Thackeray walked away to form the MNS, a third straight victory in the Mumbai Municipal polls and the public out pour following the death of supremo Balasaheb indicated that the SS was still an important player in the state. The Lok Sabha and the later state elections of 2014 is a lithmus test for party president Uddhav Thackeray as well as the Shiv Sena with few of its leaders crossing over to the Congress or the NCP. If it can end up with over 12 seats, it would emerge as a force to reckon with even on the Central stage and Balasaheb's choice of his son Uddhav to lead his party after him will be justified. Like the NCP, the year 2014 will be extremely crucial in the political prospects of this party.

A third member of the 'Mahayuti' is Ramdas Athavale's Republican Party of India (A). The Dalit leader was with the UPA in 2009 and has represented Pandharpur and Mumbai North Central in the Lok Sabha earlier. The presence of the Dalit party like RPI (A) in the grand coalition is highly symbolic too as it helps the BJP to get more low caste votes. Raju Shetti's Swabhiman Shetkari Sanghatana (SSS) is popular amongst the farmers, especially in the Hatkanangle region. The entry of Mahadeo Jankar's Rashtriya Samaj Party (RSP) at the last moment will again help in consolidation of the anti-UPA votes.

(3) Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS): The only thing that prevent the NDA from doing well in Maharashtra is Raj Thackeray. Whether you like him or not, the MNS chief is a force to reckon with. His call for his supporters to attack officials if they ask for toll led to violence at many places recently. Many see him as the 'true successor' to his uncle Balasaheb and the kind of emotional connect he has with the traditional Sena base is indeed enviable. With Nitin Gadkari opening back channel links with him, there were reports indicating that he might join the 'Mahayuti'. However, nothing is clear in this regards. At the same time, several smaller parties like Jayant Patil's Peasants and Worker's Party and Vinay Kore's Jan Surajya Party are keen to ally with Raj to form a Third Front.

(4) Aam Admi Party (AAP): While the party would have done extremely well in the state had anti-corruption crusader Anna Hazare lend its support to them, the AAP is still hopeful that it can replicate its success in Delhi in the financial capital of Mumbai, at least on a much smaller scale. The first list of probable candidates has some big names like banker Meera Sanyal (Mumbai - South), activist Mayank Gandhi (Mumbai - North) and Vijay Pandhare (Nashik) who helped expose the irrigation scam.

PAST PERFORMANCE

Looking back into the past, the NDA will be hoping to replicate its superlative performance of 1996 when the BJP and the Sena bagged 33 of the 48 seats in the state. However, they could not hold that for long. The unpopularity of the SS-BJP government under Manohar Joshi in Mumbai saw the allies losing ground to the Congress. With Sharad Pawar still with the INC, the tables were turned as the Congress took home 33 seats, reducing the saffron partners to 10. The following elections though, saw a different trend. After Pawar formed the NCP over the foreign origin issue of Sonia Gandhi, the BJP emerged as the largest party here with a tally of 15 while the 13 candidates of the Shiv Sena made the cut. The 2004 polls saw a close contest with the NDA holding a marginal upper hand here although it was the Congress-led alliance that emerged as the winner nationwide. The UPA dominated 2009 finsihing with 25 seats whereas the NDA took 20.

Political Party	1996	1998	1999	2004	2009
Congress (INC)	15	33	10	13	17
Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)	N/A	N/A	6	9	8
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	18	4	15	12	9
Shiv Sena (SS)	15	6	13	13	11
Others	-	5	4	1	3

MY PREDICTIONS

The Congress and the NCP have stuck to their 2009 formula for seat sharing with the INC contesting 26 and leaving 22 for Pawar's outfit. The seat sharing amongst the constituents of the grand alliance are not yet finalized. You can definitely expect some fiction here considering that there are 5 parties with each trying to maximize its numbers.Meanwhile, I predict the NDA to cross the 25 mark. The UPA will drop seats but will not be routed. The NCP's performance will be below average.

	Coalition	Expected Seats
1	United Progressive Alliance (INC-NCP)	15-20
2	National Democratic Alliance (BJP-SS-RPI(A)-SSS-RSP)	22-27
3	Others (MNS/AAP)	1-5

WATCH OUT

(1) The Revival of the Shiv Sena: This could be the big make or break moment for the Shiv Sena and its chief Uddhav Thackeray. If the party can even retain its tally of 11, it will be a significant achievement and will pay rich dividends especially in the state polls scheduled in late 2014. However the split in its traditional vote banks, may cost it some seats.

(2) Will he or won't he? Will Raj Thackeray's MNS nominate candidates for the big polls or will it concentrate on the state elections is one big question that could change the dimensions in the state. If he does, he could cause serious damage to the 'Mahayuti' in several constituencies. Also, another interesting thing to see will be how Raj can take his party from Mumbai-Thane region to other parts of Maharashtra and what role will he play in the state politics in the near future.

(3) The NCP in transition: With Pawar ruling himself out of the Lok Sabha 2014, an era in the party's history has come to an end. It is but evident that the young Turks will have to take over. Will the transition be smooth? I don't think so. Pawar's daughter Supriya Sule and nephew Ajit Pawar are the front runners to take over. In a comprise, you can expect Supriya to lead the party in the Parliament with Praful Patel by her side whereas Ajit might command the state unit. At this juncture, one needs to watch the moves of senior leaders Chaggan Bhujbal and R R Patil closely.

(4) The fight for Mumbai: In 2009, the UPA won all seven seats in the Mumbai-Thane region. In many seats the NDA was relegated to the third spot after the split in the opposition votes. Can the NDA wrest the financial capital back from the Congress-led front. While this is likely, the MNS can dampen the prospects of the NDA.

(5) Statehood for Vidarbha: With the Congress and BJP colluding to give statehood to Telangana, such demands from other parts of the country are likely. The demands for a separate state carved out of eastern Maharashtra has been raised since long. Both the Congress and the BJP have reiterated their support for the cause. However, the Shiv Sena has opposed the division tooth and nail.

For more posts in this series:
(1) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

WHY THE THIRD FRONT IS A FAILURE?

FIVE REASONS WHY THE FEDERAL FRONT WILL NOT BE A SUCCESS

With seven regional parties joining hands with the Left Front earlier this week, it seems like the much hyped 'Third Front', a term which gains momentum months prior to General Elections and then fizzles out, is on the cards. The eleven constituents who have around 90 MPs in the Lok Sabha have formed a united block and have planned to oppose any bill brought in by the government since it could electorally benefit the Congress. In the coming days, it is expected that the leaders of the Front which at present includes the Janata Dal (United), the Samajawadi Party, the Biju Janata Dal, the Janata Dal (Secular), the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik), the All India Anna Daravida Munnetra Kazhagam and the Asom Gana Parishad, apart from the four parties of the Left Block will hold talks to finalize the seat sharing arrangements. A non-BJP, non-Congress government at the Centre has been the ultimate dream of the federalists. However, the big question is whether it is a viable option. The increase in the vote share of the regional outfits and the emergence of strong state satraps has made them extremely important in national politics. Meanwhile, the anti-incumbency is hurting the Congress whereas the polarization of votes could affect the BJP's prospects after it named Narendra Modi as its PM nominee. As such, some believe that 2014 could see witness a Federal Front heading the regime in New Delhi. In fact, in a bid to prevent the NDA from coming to power, the UPA may offer such an alliance consisting of regional players outside support. However, I believe that the Third Front is bound to fail. Firstly, it will need at least 120 plus seats to be a force to reckon with and considering the present situation of its constituents, it seems to be an uphill task. In fact even if it gets 120 seats and forms a minority government with the outside support of the Congress, it is unlikely to last over two years. And here are the five reasons why I think so...

(1) Present Situation: As I have mentioned earlier, the Third Front has to get over 120 seats to even dream of forming the next government. However, in the present situation, it is expected that most of the regional parties who met this week are going to drop seats. Nitish Kumar, the most vocal leader of the new formation has to battle anti-incumbency, a resurgent BJP and the Congress-RJD-LJP alliance this time around. Having walked out of the NDA over the leadership issue, the JD(U) is likely to end with a tally of 10-15 seats only. In neighboring Uttar Pradesh, the Muslims who have been a prominent vote bank of the Samajwadi Party may desert it following the inability of the Akhilesh government to prevent the Muzaffarnagar riots. Meanwhile, the BJP and the BSP are likely to spoil the prospects of Mulayum Singh Yadav in the upcoming polls. The Left Front could be heading towards its worst showing in many years. Having stormed the Left bastion of Bengal in 2011, Mamata Bannerjee is all set to take the lion's share of seats in the eastern state. In Kerala too, the LDF is said to be extremely weak. Down south, the Gowdas have never been able to increase their clout outside the Mandya region of Karnataka. Besides the father son duo of Deve Gowda and Kumarswamy, they do not have any strong leaders who can win them seats. The AGP and the JVM (P) can at max, win 10 and 3 seats in Assam and Jharkhand respectively. On the contrary, Jayalalithaa's AIADMK and Naven Patnaik's BJD are expected to put on a good show. Considering the above arguments, I think the Third Front will finish with a combined tally of 80 - 110 seats, falling short of the 120 mark. On the other hand, if the NDA or the UPA manage to cross the 200 mark on their own, some parties in the confederation may not be averse to joining either of them. Amma is known to be close to Modi whereas Patnaik and AGP were a part of the BJP led alliance earlier. Similarly, the SP and the JD(S) have bailed out the INC many times in the past in the Parliament.

(2) The ideology: To get votes, the Third Front will have to project an ideology to the people. This is exactly what the coalition lacks as of now. The only reason for these parties who come from diverse backgrounds, who cater to different vote banks and who have varied 'founding principles' to come together has been to the aim of forming a non-BJP, non-Congress regime in New Delhi. In fact, this has been the stand of many regional players since decades. Earlier, with many of these fighting the INC in their back ground, anti-Congressism was the glue that kept them together. Over the years, with the 'Secularism' debate dominating the political scene, there has been a slight change here with anti-BJP sentiments taking over, especially after the nomination of Modi as NDA's Prime Ministerial candidate. However, the point to note here is whether the masses will vote for the regional players only to keep the mainstream national parties at bay? Also, the Federal alliance has never spoken about its 'united' vision for the country, the economic policies that it plans to implement once in power and its views on the nation's foreign affairs, social issue and key reforms are unclear. Besides, another challenge for them is whether the individual parties will ever rise above regional lines. One important thing is that each of the member of this alliance has a vote bank to protect. With every outfit trying to safeguard its own political interests will the Front be ever able to deliver on vital issues. My answer to this question is a No. Probably, the biggest problem will come while presenting the annual budget as every leader will want to get the maximum funds for his or her state.

(3) An incomplete front: Another head ache for the federal alliance is that in several key states, it has virtually no presence. Of course, in the coming days I expect several smaller parties like the People's Party of Punjab, either the National Conference or People's Democratic Party in Jammu & Kashmir and some other outfits in the North-East to join this confederation. Still, this does not solve the issue. In Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Himachal and Uttarkhand, the coalition has no leader who can win them seats. In Andhra, where there are as many as three regional parties, namely the YSR Congress, the Telugu Desum Party and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi, none of these have indicated their willingness to join hands with federal front. Same is the situation in Maharashtra. Though the ties between the NCP and the Congress have been strained, they continue to share power. On the other hand, the BJP has already brought together several parties in its Mahayuti. Another issue facing the new front is that most of these regional players, except for Naveen Patnaik has a strong traditional regional rival and getting them on board is an impossible task. With Mulayum in the group, there is no way that Mayawati is going to give her support to the coalition; DMK and the AIADMK do not see eye to eye; Nitish will never allow bete noire Lalu Yadav to be a member of the alliance where Mamata's TMC can never work with the Left parties. With Didi and Behenji out of the equation, there is no way that the Third Front will get the numbers to form the next government.

(4) Leadership: Lets suppose that the Third Front is all set to form the government, either on its own or with outside support of the Congress. The question staring at the alliance will be who will head the government? All this while, the Third Front members have tried to evade this issue by claiming that the decision on who will be their PM choice will be taken after the polls. However, with nearly half a dozen leaders harboring ambitions for the top job, selecting one person will be extremely difficult. In a party meeting, the AIADMK cadre have proposed Jayalalithaa's name for the post. Knowing how things function in the Dravidian parties, it is for sure that this announcement too has the matriarch's blessings. It is a well known fact that Mulayum Singh Yadav too wants to become the Prime Minister. In fact, when he asked his son Akhilesh to become the CM of Uttar Pradesh after the SP dislodged the BSP from power, it was being speculated that he was planning to move to the national scene. Bihar CM Nitish Kumar too is seen as a probable PM candidate. While he had denied any such ambitions in the past, his repeated calls for the formation of the Third Front and his excessive campaigning in the last few months tell a different story. Nitish's party colleague Sharad Yadav is the dark horse. His experience as the convener of the NDA may come in handy while keeping the different allies happy. And how can one forget the humble farmer H D Deve Gowda. A former PM, he like Sharad Yadav too can be a please-all candidate. However, what goes against him is that the JD(S) may fail to win over 5 seats. Probably, the best amongst the pack, at least in my opinion is Orissa CM Naveen Patnaik. Having governed his state fairly well for three consecutive terms, he has the experience to handle the PM's post.

(5) Bitter experiences of the past: They say 'History repeats itself'. The four federal governments that were formed in the 1990s are testimony to the fact that such an experiment can never be sustainable and will only result in political instability. In 1989, Vishwananth Pratap Singh led the first such government at the Centre which barely lasted for an year. The reason for the fall of this regime was that Chandra Shekar led faction broke away, a clear indication that such formations never work. Chandra Shekar who succeeded Singh fared even badly, staying in power only for 223 days after the Congress withdrew its support, accusing him of spying on their leader Rajiv Gandhi. The third experiment of a regional alliance was in 1996 when Deve Gowda headed the United Front government. Prior to the government formation, there were several uneasy meetings to decide the new PM. It is widely believed that Lalu Yadav prevented Mulayum from being the PM to make sure that he does not emerge as the biggest Yadav leader in the country. Less than an year later, his regime fell and I K Gujral occupied the highest executive post in the country. There is one important event that took place while Gujral was at the helm of affairs which is worth reading. It is relevant because such situations may arise in case of a Third Front government comes to power in 2014. As PM, Gujral tried his best to shield Lalu Yadav as the CBI was investigating the multi-crore Fodder scam. You see the regional parties have a narrow minded approach. They fail to see what is good for the country as a whole, rather focusing on their states. Such an approach is not ideal for leading a nation as diverse as ours. Though I firmly believe that smaller outfits are one of the greatest features of our democracy, I think that giving the reins of the Central government to them is like allowing a 15 year old drive a car. While the teenager may do a decent job, there are high chances that he may crash his vehicle. At the same time I do not say that the two national parties or rather the coalitions that they are heading - the UPA and the NDA are the best choice. However if I have to choose amongst the three 'Devils', I will definitely chose them any day over the Third Front.

THE DOUBLE EDGED SWORD

THE PROS AND CONS OF NAMING MODI AS THE PM CANDIDATE

Original: IBN Live/Reuters 

As if any formal endorsement was needed after the Goa enclave of the BJP where he was declared as the head of the party's 2014 campaign, Gujarat CM Narendra Modi has been officially anointed as the NDA's candidate for the top post on Friday - 13 September, 2013. In a outfit which was struggling over the war of succession amongst its second generation leaders ever since its unexpected and decisive defeat in the 2004 Lok Sabha polls, the decision has finally been made. Beating the likes of Sushma Swaraj and Arun Jaitley - who are currently heading the party in the two Houses and are known to be very close to patriarch Advani, the Hindutva poster boy's much hyped development model and his stinging attacks on the innumerable failures of the UPA government has galvanized the cadre, making him the unanimous choice to take on the Congress. At a time when the economy is struggling and the country's image is taking a hit, the saffron brigade is projecting NaMo as the ultimate saviour of the nation, a Messiah who will salvage our lost pride and solve all our problems. However, even the most ardent of BJP followers know that conditions apply. Modi is an extremely polarizing figure and his mishandling of the 2002 riots may end up consolidating the 'secular' and the significant minority votes in the favour of the 'pseudo-secular' parties. Internally, the appointment seems to have caused an internal crisis with Bhishma pithama opposing the move. However, the decision has been made and the onus is now on the Congress to name who will spear head its own campaign.

Over the last few years, Modi has slowly become the most prominent face of his party. Ever since his third straight victory over the Congress in the 2012 Gujarat elections, his stature within the party has only grown and its followers have come to a conclusion that only he can get them back to power in New Delhi. Besides being an excellent orator, his pro-development stance, 'no-nonsense' attitude, a strong position on national security, his scathing and below the belt attacks on the UPA leadership and of course, his so-called 'vision' for India have made him a hit in the cyberspace and popular amongst the middle class and the youth. At a time when the UPA government finds itself in a tight spot over numerous issues like price rise, falling rupee, corruption and failure to protect our borders, Rajnath & Co. are hoping 'NaMonia' or 'pneumonia' - depending on which side of the political divide you are on, will sweep the nation. The mood in the opposition camp is upbeat. With Modi at the helm of affairs, there seems to be a new found confidence amongst the workers on the streets. The BJP seems to be in resurgence. Though, it may not attract any significant allies up to the polls, it has made its intention clear - it wants to cross the 200 mark and then strike deals with regional players opposed to the Congress. With the party growing stronger, brick by brick at a time, it seems that the next Lok Sabha will be a tough contest; much closely fought than 2009.

Secondly, with this important announcement, the war of succession in the saffron party seems to be brushed aside, at least for the time being. The Advani camp has been cut to size; while the Lau Purush is still sulking, a vast majority of the leaders including the president have stood behind Modi. The RSS too has given a green signal. Now that the internal differences have been 'resolved', the BJP's position has only been strengthened. Thirdly, for the party that piggy banked on the Babri demolition to emerge as an alternative to the Congress, Modi - a polarizing figure will be in line with its core Hindutva strategy. Amit Shah, a trusted aide of the Gujarat strongman who has been accused of playing a key role in the 'fake' encounters post 2002 riots, has been put in charge of UP, where the BJP could win just 10 seats in the last elections. His visit to Ayodhya and his assurance of building a Ram Temple at the disputed site has only confirmed this. Perhaps, the biggest positive for the Opposition is that the move has put the Congress in the dock. Now, with the ball in its court, there is tremendous pressure on the party to name a candidate to oppose Modi. Rahul Gandhi, who every Congressman believes has the divine right to become the PM is inexperienced and is reported to be reluctant to jump into the fray. Unlike 2009 where his role in passing the Indo-Nuclear deal was appreciated, Manmohan Singh's popularity has been tarnished this time around by the 2G and the Coalgate scams. Sonia Gandhi, UPA's tallest leader is not keeping well. Besides, every attack on Modi will only give him more footage and backfire on the government; after all the who knows it better than Sonia - her infamous 'Maut ka Saudagar' remark ahead of the 2007 Gujarat elections backfired on her own party.

However, Modi's biggest problem continues to be the ghost of the riots following the Godhra carnage. Though he may not have been implicated by any court as yet, his complete mishandling of the administration during that period has made him a much hated figure amongst the minorities. Besides, several scholars, intellectuals and distinguished members of the civil society have been vocal in their criticism of him. Although it is not of much importance, the US government has still not offered a visa to him. Even in the past few months, his unwarranted remarks like Hindu nationalism and 'Burqa of secularism' have only made the matters worse, thereby giving his detractors opportunities to take swipes at him. Many believe that Modi, whose brand of politics is based on religious intolerance, anger, arrogance and violence is completely in contrast to the ideals of our great civilization. They argue that a man who could not uphold the secular fabric of our society cannot lead a country renowned for its diversity. Since he is such a polarizing figure, the BJP's decision may end up working in favour of the Congress. In the last general elections, Varun Gandhi's hate speech in his constituency of Pilibhit in UP proved to be a costly mistake. Though he won his seat, the furor also caused the Muslim votes to go to the INC's kitty, thereby helping it gain over twice as much as the saffron outfit in the state. With the Gujarat CM now being declared as the party's PM nominee, the Congress's policy of veiled minority appeasement policy has now got some sort of legitimacy.

Probably, the biggest worry for the BJP since the naming of Modi is that it has become less attractive to worthwhile allies before the polls. There are two issues that work against the Gujarat CM in this regards. Firstly, many of the BJP's prospective alliance partners including Patnaik's BJD in Orissa, Mamata's TMC in Bengal and Naidu's TDP in Andhra themselves have a significant support base amongst the Muslims. As such, by allying with the NaMo led BJP, they may end up alienating their vote bank. At a time when the pundits have predicted a hung assembly, every party wants to increase its tally, thereby enhancing its political influence in New Delhi. This was the precise reason that the JD(U) walked out of the NDA sometime back. Secondly, a head strong leader like NaMo will be very hard to deal with. In our Rajneeti where allies regularly bully national parties for the silliest of reasons, a moderate like Vajpayee with the ability to keep everyone together while not compromising on national interests will be needed. Another head ache for Modi emanates from his own camp. His one time mentor Advani, who even persuaded Vajpayee against dismissing the Gujarat government in 2002 has not endorsed him yet. The former Home Minister who was absent at the Goa enclave also skipped the meeting in Delhi where NaMo was endorsed. Certainly, this is not the start that the NaMo band wagon wanted. The conclusion is that the choice has been made and the fate of Narendra Modi will be decided in 2014 when the world's largest democracy goes for elections.

For more on the 2014 General Elections

(1) The Fall of the Triumvirate (Link)

(2) Reading Between the Lines (Link)

(3) An Ally in Need is an Ally Indeed (Link)