ONE BIG, HAPPY FAMILY?

WILL THE REGIONAL BRIGADE SURVIVE

Janata Parivar 

Could this be 'Avengers' moment of Indian politics? Much like the movie series wherein several superheroes from the Marvel Comic world come together with the noble aim of saving the world from evil forces, last week, heads of six regional parties who are no less than 'superheroes' in the eyes of their followers joined hands to resurrect the erstwhile Janata Parivar, decades after the party splintered into numerous factions on account of personal rivalry, jealousy and ego hassles between its leadership. Of course, while they may claim that the reason for their coming together is to stop the rise of the 'Fascist' forces (read BJP), there is no doubt that the satraps, who played a key role in the formation of successive regimes in the Coalition Era are fighting for their political survival after being jolted in the General Elections 2014 when the Modi wave broke the traditional barriers of caste and region, something that these leaders and their parties usually thrive upon.

Whatever may be the reason for this realignment of political forces on the political spectrum, what is certain is that merger of the six outfits - the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Janata Dal - United (JD-U), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Janata Dal - Secular (JD-S), the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and the Samajwadi Janata Party (SJP) is all set to have major implications in the years to come, provided these factions stay together which in itself is going to be an herculean task. Though the modalities are being worked upon by a six member committee, former Uttar Pradesh CM and SP supremo Mulayum Singh Yadav has been named as the chief of the Janata Party in its new avtaar.

From the outside, the merger might not sound as 'such a big deal'. After all, the six parties together have 15 MPs in the Lower House of the Parliament and are in no position to stall reforms or counter the government that has a comfortable majority in the Lok Sabha. Most of these old warhorses are in the twilight of their political careers with a majority of them being a mere shadow of what they were in their heyday. Besides, the three regional players who withstood the Modi juggernaut namely Jayalalithaa of the AIADMK, Mamata Bannerjee of the TMC and Navin Patnaik of the BJD have kept a safe distance from this new political entity. Thus the influence of the new look Janata Parivar is restricted to UP and Bihar apart from marginal presence in Haryana and Karnataka.

While the regional satraps may still be licking the wounds that they suffered in the May 2014 polls, writing off the new front would be a foolish decision. With the Modi government yet to fulfill most of the promises it made to the public during the course of the electoral campaign, the merger could help consolidate the anti-Modi or anti-BJP vote bank. Considering that many of these leaders including Mulayum Singh, Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav have a solid Dalit - Muslim support base, the new front is all set to give tough electoral challenge to a new resurgent BJP ahead of the prestigious Bihar polls which is scheduled later this year. In fact, even in the by-polls held in Bihar and UP last year, the regional parties put up a formidable show against the saffron camp. Buoyed by these results and keen to regain lost ground, the merger will help strengthen the Opposition benches which looks scattered for the time being. Additionally, the party now has 30 MPs in the Rajya Sabha which is nearly half the number that the NDA has as of now, making it a force to reckon with in the Upper House.

The success of the Janata Parivar and its future will largely depend on the results of the Bihar Polls. A victory for the front will be a mega boost for the leadership and will completely stop the Modi bandwagon which received a jolt in the Delhi elections. In that scenario, more regional players would be keen in joining hands with the party either by the way of merger or alliance. The Congress and the Left parties who too are in no situation to take on the BJP at present would be interested in dealing with the Mualyum led party. On the other hand, a defeat at the hands of the BJP though could well bring down the curtains on the Parivar, months after it was formed.

The real threat for the JP is from within; will the Yadavs, the Kumars and the Chautalas bury their bitter past and move on, rather move on as a team? Can Mulayum whose hopes of becoming the PM were dashed by Lalu, ever be able to trust the latter? Can Lalu and Nitish ever be friends? After all, they would call each other all sorts of names till about an year ago, isn't it? Though we do not have any concrete answers to any of questions, what we can be sure of is that the revival of the Janata Parivar has only made Indian politics in general and Bihar polls in particular more interesting.

FRIENDS..... AGAIN

THE IMPACT OF THE REGROUPING OF THE 'SOCIALISTS' ON INDIAN POLITY

Earlier this week, the various fragments of the erstwhile Janata Dal who were literally obliterated in the May Lok Sabha polls decided to join hands in a bid to save their political careers and form a united front against the so-called communal forces led by Modi and a resurgent BJP while being at an arm's length from the Congress which is still battling anti-incumbency in spite of being out of power for over six months. After having played a key role in the formation of successive governments at the Centre for over two decades, these regional satraps found themselves rendered 'political insignificant' after the saffron outfit crossed the halfway mark on its own earlier this year. The Samajwadi Party (SP) which won a decisive mandate in 2012 polls in Uttar Pradesh could not win a single seat outside its family fiefdom as Amit Shah scripted a fairy tale victory for his party in the northern state. The then Bihar CM Nitish Kumar, the self-proclaimed 'upholder' of India's secular ideals was given a mega jolt even as Lalu's much hyped 'comeback' was derailed by Sushil Kumar Modi and his new allies - LJP's Paswan and RSLP's Kushwaha. The misery of other 'former' strongmen namely Deve Gowda and Om Prakash Chautala only compounded further. Now that these 'wise men' of Indian politics have left behind their past differences and agreed to work together, let us for moment ponder as to what implication such a union will have on the politics of the country in the near future.

No prices for guessing as to who benefits the most out of this move. The results of the Bihar by-polls have proved that the only way to effectively counter the Modi-Shah bandwagon is to cobble up coalitions keeping aside bitter rivalries and forgetting ideologies (read 'unholy' alliances). With the state elections scheduled next year, the likes of Nitish, Lalu and Sharad Yadav have to ensure that the anti-BJP vote does not split and the best way to bring together the Maha Dalits, the Yadavs and the Muslims is to revive the Janata Parivaar.

With many expecting Modi to be at the helm of affairs for a long innings, it just makes sense for the regional bigwigs to stick together or risk being out of 'business'. At the same time, many are doubting whether the new outfit could sustain itself; after all, each of these men has a big ego. Moreover, at various times in the past, they have fought and hurled the choicest abuses on each other. Remember those days in the mid 90s when Lalu thwarted Mulayum's dreams of becoming the PM. Perhaps, the biggest hurdle for them will be make sure that they continue to remain united. For the time being, the SP chief is all set to be the leader of the new party; not only does his party have the maximum number of MPs in the Parliament, it also continues to remain in power in UP.

For the first time in many, many years, the prospects of a non-Congress, non-BJP front seem to be more likely than ever. This latest endeavor is different from the Third Front in the sense that all these satraps will now (hopefully) fight under a unified leadership and a common symbol. The BJP certainly has reasons to worry as it makes its task in Bihar all the more difficult. And then, there is the fear of consolidation of the secular votes in the upcoming elections. The saffron outfit has to reconsider its decision of further alienating its allies like the Akalis and the Shiv Sena. The BJP cannot afford to act 'haughty' and 'mistreat' its partners in the NDA, an accusation that many have levied against it in the recent past.

At least the BJP is in power and at present has the arsenal to see off this threat. Spare a thought for the Congress. As if the fact that it is at a historic low and is being led by Rahul Gandhi is not enough, this new formation could relegate the INC to the third position. With the likes of Yadavs and Kumar on the same platform, there is a high probability that the Muslim voters will gravitate away from it, further alienating the grand old party. At a time when the party is desperate to find strong regional allies to take on the government, this new development will reduce its options. Meanwhile, the numbers also gives these leaders more bargaining power in dealing with the Congress.

Lastly, what does this development mean for other political parties in India. The Communists are grinning as they have always been advocating for a strong front consisting of regional players. On the other hand, the three big satraps viz Mamta, Jaya and Patnaik who have managed to beat the saffronists in their backyard are looking at this development very closely. The revival of the Janata Dal (JD) opens a new set of opportunities for them; they will now have three alternatives in the future and will be in a good position to play hard ball. Sharad Pawar who broke his alliance with the Congress just before the Maharashtra state polls too has welcomed this move. The JD will like to get him on board. Ditto with Ajit Singh who was washed out in the Union polls; though he may have his differences with the Chautalas, convincing him to join the front, considering his present political fortunes will be easy. Frankly, if the leaders do manage to win Bihar, I will not be surprised if some of the disgruntled sections within the NDA like the Akalis and Ram Vials Paswan or for that matter, Mayawati decides to do business with the new front. A host of parties including the PDP, the JMM, the TRS, the AIUDF and the AIMIM could be open to work with the JD while resisting a direct merger. In the south, the DMK and the YSRCP will be happy to extend support to the new outfit since they cannot afford to back either of the two national parties at this moment.

AKHADA - Part IV

THE RESULTS

In a state where the BJP had won just four seats in 2009, its tally of 47 five years down the line is simply remarkable, especially considering the fact that the saffronists never had a recognizable face in Haryana and its organization here was virtually absent in most of the places till sometime back. However, the elevation of Narendra Modi and his many rallies in various parts of the state seemed to have stuck a chord with the voters. The Congress on the other hand was virtually wiped out; the party which was in power for a decade was relegated to the third position. The INLD whose top brass is in jail in the multi-crore recruitment scam too failed to make a comeback as the NaMo bandwagon swept it aside. Kuldep Bishnoi who was nurturing hopes of becoming the next CM of the state paid a heavy price for breaking off ties with the BJP as his party - the HJC managed to bag just two seats.

The BJP's victory in the Haryana 2014 state polls is simply astounding, perhaps even more impressive than its performance in Maharashtra. The party leveraged the anti-incumbency and the corruption allegations against the Congress and the INLD to its advantage. Of course, the image of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi did play a key role in the numbers that the saffron camp got. Besides, an exodus of leaders from these two parties helped it consolidate the non-Jat votes in the states. Moreover, its decision to cut off all ties with Kuldeep Bishnoi in spite of an understanding with him prior to the 2014 General Polls also proved to be a right decision. Massive infighting and the various allegations of corruption against the Hooda regime saw the Congress drop 25 seats. The INLD too suffered a severe low as the Chautala failed to win especially in the non-Jat regions of the state. Meanwhile, Kuldeep Bishnoi had a horrid time; his decision to refuse the BJP's offer of 25 seats was a blunder with his party ending up with just two seats.

Again, the biggest winner out of this is BJP President Amit Shah. The very fact that the party won a simple majority in a state where it lacked even basic organizational setting till a few months ago speaks volumes of his ability. With the wins in Maharashtra and Haryana under his belt, Modi's Man Friday has shut all his detractors both within the party and outside, who had questioned his strategy during the by-elections. Also, the victory is also a big thumbs up to PM Narendra Modi and the work he has done so far during his tenure. The election defeat could signal the end of road for former CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda. In spit of the growing clamor against him from the likes of Kumari Selja and ABC, the high command had kept its faith in the Jat leader. However, following such a disastrous defeat, he may find it hard to stage a comeback in the near future. The Chautalas and their party, the INLD too flopped as the results have shown. Even Dushyant Chautala lost from the family bastion of Uchana Kalan. Winding up the list is Kuldeep Bishnoi. The HJC chief who dreamed of becoming the next CM of the state could only win two seats, a decline of 4 from the 2009 state elections.

For more posts on the Haryana 2014 State Elections, click here (Link)

The Chart displaying the results was created on Meta-Chart (Link)

AKHADA - Part II

ISSUES AHEAD OF THE 2014 HARYANA STATE POLLS

The INC's decimation in the recently concluded parliamentary elections, especially in Haryana has shaken the political scenario in the state. After being in power here for a decade, incumbent CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda was left red-faced as the INC managed to win just one seat; his son Deepak was the lone party candidate to make the cut. Meanwhile, the saffron outfit is on a surge. After painting the state in orange, the BJP 's poll prospects have been further boosted after several prominent leaders from the INC and the INLD have joined it. So confident is the party of its chances that it has refused to 'honor' its electoral accord with the HJC. Crying foul, Bishnoi now has tied up with Venod Sharma's JCP and vowed to teach the BJP a lesson. With the polls to the state assembly being scheduled on October 15, let us have a look at the issues that are likely to play in the minds of the masses as they vote to decide who form the next regime in Haryana.

In a party that is not known to give a free hand to its state leaders, Haryana CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda is an exception. In spite of the fact that even a Gandhi loyalist like Kumari Selja has been accusing the incumbent CM of 'neglecting' her constituency of Ambala for long, the son of former freedom fighter Ranbir Hooda has largely had a free hand in the state. After all, he was the one who led the Congress to a famous victory in 2004 polls and then managed to stay on to power for a second consecutive term by 'poaching' MLAs from Bishnoi's HJC and joining hands with some independent. Moreover, the state contributed nine MPs to both innings of the UPA government. Sadly though, all that seems to have changed, quite drastically in the last six months. The anti-incumbency sentiment is at a all time high. After the drubbing the Lok Sabha polls, several leaders have come out and openly hit out at the CM with some even crossing over to the BJP. In a recent rally at Kaithal that he attended along with PM Narendra Modi, he was booed by what he later termed as a crowd comprising of BJP supporters. While there may be some element of truth in the CM's remarks, there is little doubt that his popularity is at its lowest.

Anna Hazare's crusader against corruption way back in August 2011 shook the conscience of the nation and ever since, it has become one of the biggest issues in all polls in the country. In Haryana, a slew of corruption allegations against the ruling regime has put the Congress on the back foot. Perhaps, the most famous, rather 'infamous' is the one involving Sonia Gandhi's son-in-law Robert Vadra. He has been accused of purchasing land in Haryana at throw-away prices causing severe embarrassment for the INC and its top family. On the other hand, the main Opposition in the state, Chautala's Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) too is in the dock after its top two leaders - former CM and party supremo Om Prakash Chautala and his son Ajay Singh were sent behind the bars after being convicted in the Teacher's Recruitment Scam in January 2013. With the BJP making this as their main poll plank like it did in the General Polls earlier this year, the two main political parties in Haryana have a lot to answer.

Ahead of the state elections, the ruling Congress is battling dissidents within its ranks. Former Rajya Sabha MP Venod Sharma who was known to be close to Hooda has left the party to form the JCP. Kumari Selja has become more vocal in her differences with the CM whereas Jat strongman Birendra Singh has joined the saffron camp. Minister in state cabinet Ajay Yadav had threatened to resign from the party if it projected Hooda as its CM candidate. The party has constituted a new committee and has been put the five time MLA from Rewari in charge of its campaign. Similarly, the arrest of its top two has left a power vacuum in the INLD. It is up to the remaining Chautalas - Abhay Chautala and his nephew Dushyant to oversee the outfit's campaign. Meanwhile, the one cause of concern for the BJP is that it does not have a strong leadership in the state. Most of its big leaders are political turncoats from other parties and it remains to be seen if they can work as a cohesive unit to win the elections. Even if the saffron outfit does win a majority on its own, selecting the CM will be an arduous task. HJC chief Kuldeep Bishnoi does not have any such problems, that is if it can get the numbers.

If the state assembly polls throws up a hung assembly, like in 2009, then the role of the regional parties will be interesting to see. After severing ties with the BJP, Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC) leader Kuldeep Bishnoi has forged an alliance with Jan Chetna Party (JCP) chief Venod Sharma to fight the polls together. Sharma is the father of Manu Sharma, the main accused in the Jessica Lal murder. He will be hoping that like in the last assembly, he emerges as the 'Kingmaker'. However, for that he has to learn from his mistakes and make sure that he keeps his flock together. Former state home minister Gopal Kanda whose name figured in the suicide of air hostess Geetika Sharma has also floated his own outfit - the Haryana Lokhit Party (HLP). He has announced a host of populist measures if voted to power. Former Congress MLA Arvind Sharma has been projected by the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) as its CM candidate. The Aam Admi Party (AAP) has decided not to contest the state polls but has promised to expose corrupt candidates belonging to all parties.

Finally, the caste equations play a key role in state politics and this time it is not going to be any different. Jats are the largest community here and constitute 27 percent of the total population. The leadership of the two big parties here including incumbent CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda of the INC and the Chautalas of the INLD belong to this caste. The inclusion of the Jats in the central OBC quota by the UPA II is likely to help the Congress. The BJP is pinning its hopes on its Jat leader Chaudhary Birender Singh. Kuldeep Bishnoi is eyeing the non-Jat votes, including the 19 percent Dalit votes. The ruling party's decision to form the Haryana State Gurudwara Prabandak Committee (HSGPC) is clearly seen as a move to woo the 6 percent Sikh votes.


For more posts on the Haryana 2014 State Elections, click here (Link)

HARYANA & LOK SABHA 2014

THE TRIPARTITE STRUGGLE

The agrarian state of Haryana, like the neighboring Delhi is all set to witness a three way contest for the 10 parliamentary seats in the state. The Congress has been in power here since its thumping victory in the 2005 assembly polls. An year earlier, it had swept the national polls, winning a staggering 9 out of 10 seats. Its dominance continued, as it managed to equal its tally of 2004 in the 15^th Lok Sabha too. Later that year, it ended up as the single largest party in the legislature, bagging 40 seats. However, a lot has changed ever since. With the UPA government failing on every front and simmering anti-incumbency against the Hooda regime, it is speculated that the Congress will drop several seats. The BJP has already tied with Kuldeep Bishnoi's HJC. Moreover, several top INC leaders in the state have already switched their loyalties over to the saffron camp. Another contender is the AAP. After its spectacular success in the capital, Kejriwal's outfit is keen to make an impact here. Political analyst and commentator Yogendra Yadav will be leading the party's electoral campaign here. The INLD might be down after its leader and former state CM Om Prakash Chautala was sent to the Tihar jail for his role in the Recruitment scam but it may still be able to spring some surprises. Besides, with the next elections to the state assembly scheduled later this year and multiple parties in the fray, you can expect the General Elections to be closely fought one.

ISSUES

(1) The failures of UPA II: The Congress led coalition at the Centre has been a total failure, more so in its second term. The myriad scams that have come to the limelight including 2G, Commonwealth and Coalgate have led to bad press, especially at a time when the nation has risen up against corruption. High inflation rate and price rise have hurt the common man. All thanks to policy paralysis, the over all India growth story has been punctured and Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) have reduced. Though Manmohan Singh has already announced his retirement from active politics in 2014, the Congress is clearly on the back foot.

(2) Ant-incumbency against Hooda regime: Like the UPA in New Delhi, the Bhoopender Singh Hooda regime has been in power in Haryana for the last decade. However, on the flip side, there is a strong anti-incumbency wave in the state. The several land scams including the one involving Sonia Gandhi's son-in-law Robert Vadra has become a major embarrassment for the party. The role of the state government in suppressing the honest IAS officer Ashok Khemka who played a key role in exposing the Vadra-DLF land deals and the filing of a chargesheet against him in this regards has been seen as an attempt to 'silence' him. The poor infrastructure, especially in urban areas like Gurgaon Karnal, Rohtak and Ambala is another issue which is likely to hit the ruling party hard in the upcoming polls in urban areas. Moreover, unlike the last state polls, the other parties namely the BJP and the AAP have strengthened their positions ahead of the big elections, posing a significant challenge to the incumbent regime.

(3) The Khaps and the Caste Equation: Now there are two things that play a key role in the Haryanvi society - the khap and the caste. In fact, such is the power of these village panchayats that in spite of the courts questioning their authority in arbitrating over disputes, none of the political parties have openly criticized it. Even the 'anarchist' Arvind Kejriwal was rather soft on them. Aware of the kind of influence these local bodies hold over the people, parties are trying hard to woo khap leaders. After all, in many villages, it is common for people to vote according to the directives issued by these sabhas.

Like the khaps, caste is an important factor which decides the way people vote, at least in the rural parts of the state. The Jats are the most dominant community in the politics of Haryana. With the Union government including them in the central OBC list, the INC is hopeful that the move will help it in all 10 seats in the state. The Chamars, the Banias and the Khatris have significant presence in some parts of the state. The BJP will target the Brahmins who constitute about 7 percent of the state's population. Other important communities who could decide the outcome of these polls in specific seats include the Sikhs, the Balmikis, the Rajputs, the Gujjars, the Sainis and the Meo Muslims.

CONTENDERS

(1) Congress: After being in power, both in the state and at the Centre for the last decade, the grand old party will find it extremely difficult to even get half the number of seats it won in the last two General Elections. The problem for the Congress is that many of its veterans have joined the BJP hoping to benefit from the NaMo wave. Also, CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda knows that the result will have an enormous bearing on who wins the next state assembly polls, slated later this year. Compounding his problem here is the fact that unlike in 2009, the saffron outfit is gaining momentum. Even the AAP is expect to do well in seats in the vicinity of Delhi. Meanwhile, the party has re-nominated all six of its sitting MPs who have continued with it including industrialist Navin Jindal (Kurukshetra), the CM's son Deepender Hooda (Rohtak) and Shruti Choudhary (Bhiwani-Mahenderagarh) - the grand daughter of former CM Bhansi Lal.

(2) Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): After drawing a blank in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP is expected to make big gains in Haryana this time around. However, one has to realize that the outfit does not have a very powerful presence here. In 1999 when it did well here, it fought in alliance with Chautla's INLD. As such, it is not surprising that the party has given tickets to as many as four Congress rebels. These include the former Union Minister Rao Inderjit Singh (Gurgaon) who was at loggerheads with the CM and had even raised questions over Robert Vadra's land deals. Farmer leader Om Prakash Dhankar who heads the party's Kishan Morcha has been rewarded for the role as the national convener of the 'Statue of Unity' which is a pet project of Narendra Modi and given a ticket from Rohtak. Other nominees from the saffron camp include Ratan Lal Kattaria (Ambala) and Krishan Pal Gurjar (Faridabad).

The BJP will fight the polls in alliance with Haryana Janhit Congress - Bhajan Lal (HJC-BL). In the Hisar by-elections held in 2011, following the death of his father and sitting MP Bhajan Lal, party chief Kuldeep Bishnoi humiliated the Congress, winning nearly 2 lakh votes more than Congress' Jai Prakash. Bishnoi declared his support for NDA's PM nominee Narendra Modi in September 2013. According to the pre-poll pact with the BJP, the regional outfit has fielded two candidates - Bishnoi from Hisar and former deputy CM Chander Mohan from Karnal. It was speculated that Venod Sharma, a former state minister who had left the Congress would join the HJC and contest from Karnal. Venod is the father of Manu Sharma who had killed Jessica Lal in 1999; on several occasions the senior Sharma has been accused of using his political clout to influence witnesses in the case. In fact, BJP leader Sushma Swaraj had been vocal about her dissatisfaction over this move. As such, the HJC had no choice but to turn down the influential Brahmin leader.

(3) Indian National Lok Dal (INLD): The year 2014 will decide if the INLD does have any future in the state. The party received a big jolt in January last year as party chief and former CM Om Prakash Chautala along with his elder son Ajay were sentenced to jail for ten year for their involvement in the Recruitment Scam. The party received another shock as its offer for a tie-up was turned down by former ally, the BJP. In fact, the saffronist decided to join hands with the Chautala's bete noire - the HJC. Though it may not be as strong as it was in the late 90s, the regional outfit still enjoys support in the rural areas. The INLD's performance in 2014 Lok Sabha and the upcoming state elections will decide if it continues to be an important player in state politics. It will also be a test of Abhay Chautala's leadership

(4) Aam Admi Party (AAP): After exposing the Vadra-DLF land scam, AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal will be hoping to emulate the success that he enjoyed in the Delhi state polls in neighboring Haryana too. With corruption being a major electoral issue, the party's chances look bright. One of its top leaders Yogendra Yadav is set to contest from Gurgaon. Anti-graft crusader and upright IAS officer Ashok Khemka is AAP's mascot in the state.

PAST PERFORMANCE

The following chart shows the results of the last five Lok Sabha elections in the state. In 1996, the BJP emerged as the largest party winning 4 whereas the Haryana Vikas Party (HVP) and the Congress finished with 3 and 2. Two years later, it was Chautala's Haryana Lok Dal (Rashtriya) which walked away with 4 even as the INC increased its tally by one. The HLD(R) was later renamed as INLD. In 1999, the NDA swept the state with both allies winning five seats each. In the last two General Elections, the Congress finished with an impressive tally of nine.

	Political Party	2009	2004	1999	1998	1996
1	Congress (INC)	9	9	-	3	2
2	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	-	1	5	1	4
3	Indian National Lok Dal (INLD)	-	-	5	4	-
4	Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC)	1	-	-	-	-
5	Others (HVP/BSP/Ind)	-	-	-	2	4

MY PREDICTIONS

I expect the NDA to win about five seats from Haryana in the upcoming polls. The Congress will drop many seats; however, it will not be wiped out totally. While AAP may win one seat, the INLD will draw a blank.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	NDA (BJP + HJC)	5-7
2	Congress (INC)	3-4
3	Aam Admi Party (AAP)	0-1

WATCH OUT

(1) Can the INLD pack a punch: The INLD is fighting a battle for its existence and you can expect the party cadre to put in extra effort this time. Even in the Hisar by-elections of 2011, the party's candidate Ajay Chautala who heads the party now, came in the second position. Of course, this was before senior Chautala was sent to jail. In a desperate attempt, the outfit has fielded 26 year old Dushyant, the son of jailed leader Ajay Chautala. The young Turk will be the fourth generation of the Chautala family to join politics.

(2) Sharmaji's next move: After breaking his decades long association with the Congress, Venod Sharma had heaped praises on Narendra Modi at a rally in Kurukshetra. However, after being snubbed first by the BJP and then denied a ticket by the HJP under pressure from Sushma Swaraj, it will be interesting to see what he does next. Unlike Amar Singh who was 'accommodated' in the RLD with the blessing of the Congress high command, Sharma who is the father of Jessica Lal's murder Manu Sharma had no such luck. He is likely to contest as a candidate of the Haryana Lokhit Party (HLP) - an outfit fielded by an aide of Gopal Kanda - the prime accused in the murder of Geetika Sharma.

For more posts in this series:
(1) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Jharkahnd & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)