CAN CONGRESS RETAIN ASSAM?

AFTER MH & HARYANA, WILL THE INC LOSE ANOTHER BASTION

There are some uncanny similarities between the political conditions that were prevalent in the states of Maharashtra and Haryana just before the two states went to the polls in October 2014 and those in Assam today which will see elections in the first half of 2016. All three states are traditional Congress bastions - the INC was in power for 15 years in Maharashtra in alliance with the NCP; it held on to power for a decade in Haryana and has won three consecutive terms in Assam. Besides, in all the above mentioned states, the BJP and its allies did exceedingly well in the last General Elections, decimating the Congress. That's not all. Like Tarun Gogoi in Dispur, there was widespread discontent within the party over the performance of its incumbent CMs - Prithviraj Chauhan in Maharashtra and Bhupinder Singh Hooda in Haryana. Now considering that the Congress was shunted out in the two states about a month ago, will the grand old party also be shown the door in Dispur.

Last week, BJP leader and MLA Jadab Chandra Dekha in an interview claimed that about 20 Congress MLAs in the north eastern state are in touch with the saffron outfit and may join it, thereby reducing the Gogoi regime to a minority. Ever since the big polls in May, there have been murmurs that a certain section of the INC MLAs in the state was keen to replace the incumbent CM who has been seen as 'ineffective'. In fact, some months ago, a delegation of 30 odd Congress MLAs under the leadership of Himanta Biswa Sarma met the state governor and asked him to sack the CM. However, the party high command in Delhi has firmly stood behind Gogoi, rejecting all talks of a change in leadership in Dispur in the near future. It seems that the Congress is sitting on a time bomb which can explode, anytime.

What worries me is that the 120 year odd party refuses to learn any lessons from the last one year in which it has lost election after election to its nemesis - Narendra Modi and his BJP. After losing the battle for much of the heart land in December last year, the Congress under Rahul Gandhi was reduced to a mere 44 seats in May last year; today, it is not even the principal Opposition to the NDA regime at the Centre. In October this year, it was decimated in Maharashtra and Haryana. Opinion polls predict a battering for the grand old party, both in Jharkhand and Jammu Kashmir which is corroborated to a large extent by the results of the General Elections. Today, Assam and Karnataka are the only two big states where the party is still in power. In spite of this, Rahul Gandhi and his coterie continue to wield all powers while senior leaders who have spoken against Baba have been gagged. For many, the writing is on the wall; the Congress is all set to lose Assam in the next one and a half years. And the worst part about it, at least from the party's perspective is that it is going to lose it not to the AGP or the AIUDF but the BJP.

Many believe that the writing on the wall is clear. However, is there anything that the Congress can do to win a fourth term in Assam? Although that may be ruled out, the INC can take some steps to at least cut down its losses. Firstly, Tarun Gogoi has to go. Yes, the 78 year old CM has to step down and the party has to nominate a younger leader who is acceptable to all factions in the state. Besides, such a move will also cut down anti-incumbency to some extent. Secondly, with the polls scheduled in early 2016, the party needs to get into action and improve the law and order situation in the state. The riots that have happened here in the past one year need to stop and the guilty must be brought to the book so that the people's faith in the administration is restored. Finally, the only way to stop the Modi bandwagon, as seen the Bihar by-polls is by stitching up alliances. The Congress should tie-up with the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the Bodoland People's Front (BPF) which have pockets of influence in some regions. Considering that the AGP is fighting for its political existence, it should not have any problems in allying itself with the INC even though the two have been rivals in the past. However, the big catch will be Badruddin Ajmal's All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) which is the second largest party in the present assembly. With the outfit drawing its support from the Muslims, it should be a 'natural' ally of the Congress in its fight against the 'communal' forces. The big question though is, whether the AGP or the BPF or the AIUDF are willing to share the dais with leaders from the grand old party?

IN DIRE STRAITS

THE AGP MAY DRAW A BLANK IN THE 2014 POLLS

Courtesy: Asom Gana Parishad

Formed in the 1980s after years of peaceful protests against the settling of illegal Bangladeshi immigrants in Assam, the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) was once, the most powerful political party in north eastern state. Under the leadership of the young and dynamic student leader Prafulla Kumar Mahanta, it swept the 1986 state assembly polls winning a whopping 67 of the 126 seats; Mahanta created history as he was sworn in as the youngest Chief Minister in the country's political history at that time. Although the Congress managed to come back to power in the early 90s, the AGP again emerged as the largest party in the 1996 polls. That would be the last time that the regional outfit would be in power in Dispur. In 2001, the INC under Tarun Gogoi comfortably crossed the half way. Thanks to differences between top leader, allegations of corruption against Mahanta and his alleged role in the cold blooded murder of relatives of several ULFA terrorists, the AGP's tally went down to 26 seats that year. The party has, in fact never been able to replicate its early success and won a meagre 10 seats in the last assembly polls. In the General Elections too, its performance has been no better. A part of the several Third Front governments in the 1990s, it managed to win just one seat in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls which it fought as a constituent of the NDA. The crossing over of its senior leaders to the BJP in the last two years, the rise of newer rivals and its continued failure in its electoral campaigns in the state has put a question on the party's very existence. With many, predicting the AGP to draw a blank in 2014, the question arises as to whether it is still a relevant player in the state politics, forget the national scene.

Probably, the biggest reason that the AGP finds itself in such a big mess today is that it is it has not been able to change its ideology with times. Like other regional parties in different parts of the country - the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) in Goa and the Uttarakhand Kranti Dal (UKD) in Uttarakhand which were formed after mass agitations, the Gana Parishad has never 'refined' its ideology to stay relevant. As such, it has not been able to attract the youth, especially those born post the Assam Movement. Secondly, the party does not have effective leadership. While the Congress under Gogoi has consistently moved from strength to strength, Mahanta's popularity has seen several ups and downs over the years. Besides, the allegations of corruption and his 'indictment' in the Sakia commission's report on the secret killings of ULFA sympathizers levied against Prafulla Kumar has tarnished his image. Another big factor for the party's woes has been deep rooted factionalism in its rank. In fact, the regional party was itself formed by the amalgamation of several groups fighting for the Assamese cause way back in October 1985. In 1991, several top leaders left the outfit to form the Natun Asom Gana Parishad (NAGP) only to join back an year later. In 2005, the regional outfit expelled its own leader Mahanta for indulging in anti-party activities. However on 14th October 2008, exactly 22 years after the AGP was formed, all of its splinter groups including Mahanta's Asom Gana Parishad (Progressive), Atul Bora's Trinamool Gana Parishad and Pabindra Deka's Purbanchaliya Loka Parishad came back to renew the party and fight the Congress at Golaghat. The unity though was short lived as youth leader Sarbananda Sonorwal joined the BJP three years later. Lastly, the rise of other sub-regional players like the All India United Democratic Party (AIUDF) and the Bodoland People's Front (BPF) has further weakened the AGP. These parties have solid vote bank which is unlike to switch loyalties over to the Gana Parishad any time in the near future.

Even before the 2014 polls, the party's positions has remained weak and its future looks bleak. Earlier, the party had joined hand with several other regional parties in the region to form the North East Regional Political Front (Link). However, not much development has happened in that regard ever since its inception, prompting many to ask whether the 'alliance' exists anymore or not. Meanwhile, its only MP - Joseph Toppo had resigned after there were indications that the AGP would not renominate him from the Tezpur parliamentary seat. He was later placated and given the party's ticket. In fact, one has to keep in mind that it was the split in the Muslim votes in 2009 between the Congress and the AIUDF that helped the AGP win the seat. Also, at that time, the outfit had fought the elections as a part of the NDA. However this time around, it has decided to go all alone. In another jolt to the party, two of its senior leaders - former president Chandra Mohan Patowary and former minister Hitendra Nath Goswami switched allegiance to the saffron camp. The Assamese outfit was conspicuous by its absence at the launching of the Third Front, after initially hobnobbing with the Left (Link). Well, there is absolutely nothing to indicate that the AGP will perform will well. Most Opinion polls show that the Congress will continue to dominate state politics here in 2014 too while the AGP may even fail to open its account. In fact I would not be surprised if, like in 2004, it fails to win any seats (Link). A bad performance will spell doom; more defections can be expected and the AGP may slip to single digits in 2016 state polls.

	Constituency	AGP Candidate	2009 Winner
1	Kokrajhar		BPF
2	Dhubri		AIUDF
3	Barpeta		Congress
4	Gauhati	Birendra Prasad Baishya	BJP
5	Mangaldoi		BJP
6	Tezpur	Joseph Toppo	AGP
7	Nowgong	Mridula Barkakoty	BJP
8	Kaliabor	Dr Arun Sarma	BJP
9	Autonomous District	Will Support HSDP	Congress
10	Silchar		Congress
11	Karimganj		Congress
12	Lakhimpur	Hariprasad Dihingia	Congress
13	Jorhat	Pradip Hazarika	Congress
14	Dibrugarh	Anup Phukan	Congress

ASSAM & LOK SABHA 2014

FATAL FOUR WAY BATTLE

One of the first states that will go to the polls this year is Assam. The largest amongst the eight North-Eastern states in the country, the politics here is extremely interesting for any political analyst. There are as many as four major contenders and several other smaller players, each of which has its own pockets of influence; while they may not have big numbers, their moves can determine which way the battle swings. The Congress has been the dominant player in local politics for nearly two decades now. The Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi has won three straight terms and is the tallest leader of the region. The BJP too has made inroads in several parts of the state in recent times. The kind of crowds that turned up for Modi's rally have infused confidence amongst the party cadre here. The AGP's base has corroded significantly; the party which once ruled the state is now in shambles with several members crossing over to join other parties. The AIUDF is another prominent player which draws its strength from the Muslim population. It is expected that the 14 seats in Assam are going to witness a tough four way battle. Let us take a deep dive and try to see which way the state may vote in the General Elections.

ISSUES

(1) Performance of the Tarun Gogoi government: After coming to power in 2001, Tarun Gogoi has consistently delivered for his party, both in the state and at the Centre. There is no doubt that today, he is the most popular political figure in the state as his third consecutive victory here in 2011 proves. Another advantage for the him is that his term in Dispur has largely coincided with the two UPA regimes in New Delhi. Of course, there is no doubt that his development schemes have won him the support of the masses but another factor that has worked to his advantage is the split in the opposition votes. The AGP, the BJP and the AIUDF have split the anti-Congress votes, thereby helping Gogoi tackle anti-incumbency. In fact, I prefer calling the post 2000 period in the state as the 'Gogoi Era'. The big question is whether 2014 can herald the beginning of the end of the Congress rule in Assam or will it further strengthen the grand old party here.

(2) Territorial Integrity of Assam: While its influence may have reduced greatly, the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) continues to be a threat to the security of Assam. In fact, it was one of the reasons for the Election Commission to organize the polls here in multiple phases. Besides, the state has border disputes with four of its neighbors and several people have died in related incidents. Also, there have been demands for a new state of Bodoland to be carved out of the Bodo dominant areas of Assam. Protests in favor of the new state have intensified after the UPA government gave its nod to the formation of Telangana. The Centre has constituted a committee to look into the demand. This will be an important electoral issue, especially in the areas north of the Brahmaputra. Similar demands have also been made for the autonomous hill districts in the state, namely Dima Hasao and Karbi Anglong.

(3) Illegal Migrants: Assam shares an international border with Bangladesh. Over the years, millions of illegal Bangladeshi people have settled in the state. Not so surprisingly, there have been back clashes against them by locals who feel that the foreigners are encroaching on their rights. While it may not be a burning issue at present, the BJP PM nominee Narendra Modi did raise talk about this subject in a rally in Silchar.

(4) Rahul vs Modi: Now, I have not talked about this subject in any of my previous posts in the State & Lok Sabha 2014 series. However, this issue may play a key role in the way Assamese vote in the big polls. Unlike other parts of the country, Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi has a pretty good fan following here. At one of his rallies, the 'prince charming' was swarmed by women folk. On the other hand, the Gujarat CM Narendra Modi too drew huge crowds in his rallies in the state. In fact, according to some estimates about a lakh people are said to have attended one of his rallies here. It is supposedly, the biggest turnout at a political rally in the state post 1980s.

CONTENDERS

(1) Congress: After having dominated state politics for over a decade, the grand old party is in the best position in the state at present. The CM's clean image and his relatively good track record will help divert the attention from the failures of the UPA II at the Centre. Even party Vice President Rahul Gandhi has made several trips to the state, aware that the INC is set to do well here. The party has nominated Gaurav Gogoi, the CM's son from Koliabor seat. Veteran leader B K Handique who has won from Jorhat six consecutive times has been renominated.

(2) BJP: The record turnout at Narendra Modi's rally in different parts of the state has sent shock waves amongst the opposition ranks. The party which won 4 seats last time is hoping to increase its tally by at least 1 seats. Recently, two AGP leaders - former party president Chandra Mohan Patowary and former Union minister Hitendra Nath Goswami joined the saffron camp along with their supporters. The state unit President Sarbananda Sonowal also started his political career with the AGP. The outfit will be hoping to reduce the domination of the Congress in the state politics. A good show will help the BJP to aim for 15 to 20 seats in the next state polls.

(3) All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF): Led by perfume baron Maulana Badruddin Ajmal, the AIUDF played a decisive role in the outcome of the 2009 Lok Sabha polls in Assam. While Ajmal was the only candidate from the party who won, his party spoiled the Congress' prospects in as many as five seats. In the 2011 assembly polls, the AIUDF surprised everyone by finishing with 18 seats and becoming the state's primary Opposition party. The Muslim outfit is now expanding its horizon. It has fielded candidates from parts of Bengal too. An alliance with the Congress was said to be on the cards; however, the deal fell through. Meanwhile, the AIUDF may be a prospective ally for the UPA at the Centre in case it needs partners to form a third government in New Delhi considering its large base amongst the Muslims who are wary of Modi coming to power.

(4) Asom Gana Parishad (AGP): Once the most influential party in the state, the AGP is just a pale shadow of what it used to be in its prime. Born in the 1980s out of the protest against illegal Bangladeshi immigrants settling in the state, the Prafulla Kumar Mahanta led outfit seems to have lost its track as well as support from the masses. Ever since it was thrown out of power in 2001, its popularity has shrunk consistently. An alliance with the BJP in 2009 did not yield the expected results; even as the saffron outfit won four seats, the AGP got just one seat. The defection of several of its senior leaders to the BJP in the last few weeks has further damaged its electoral prospects. The 2014 General Elections will be the battle of survival for the party.

(5) Others: The Bodoland People's Front (BPF) is fighting the elections in Bodo-dominated areas of Assam in partnership with the Congress. It is a significant force in the state and has 12 members in the legislature. Former militant and party candidate Sansuma Khunggur Bwiswmuthiary will seek re-election from Kokrajhar. The Hill State Democratic Party (HSDP) which has demanded a separate state carved out of the twin hill districts of Assam can influence the polls in their stronghold. The Aam Admi Party (AAP) too has fielded candidates from a few constituencies.

PAST PERFORMANCE

The below chart shows the elections to the state legislature as well as the General Elections since 2001. The period spanning over last 13 years is, in my opinion, the 'Gogoi Era' of Assamese politics. In 2001, the INC under him dislodged the Prafulla Kumar Mahanta led AGP regime from power winning 71 seats. In the next state polls, the Congress finished at 53 and Gogoi was sworn in for a second term with the help of independents. In 2011, the incumbent CM won a handsome victory taking home 78 seats. While the Congress has dominated the political scene here, the AGP's fortunes have declined consistently. The BJP has never been able to expand its support base. The AIUDF and the BPF beat all expectations in the last elections to the state assembly. In General Elections too, the Congress won more than half of the seats.

Political Party	2011 SE	2009 GE	2006 SE	2004 GE	2001 SE
Congress	78	7	53	9	71
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	5	4	10	2	8
Asom Gana Parishad (AGP)	10	1	24	2	20
All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF)	18	1	10	-	-
Bodoland People's Front (BPF)	12	1	-	-	-
Others	3	-	29	1	26

(1) SE: State Elections (Assam legislative assembly has 126 seats).

(2) GE: General Elections (Assam sends 14 members to the Lower House of the Parliament).

MY PREDICTIONS

While Opinion polls may predict a sweep for the Congress with some expecting the grand old party to walk away with 12 or more seats, I think that it might win between 5 to 8 seats. Considering the many scams that have rattled the incumbent regime, it will be difficult to convince people to vote for them. Still, it is all set to finish with the biggest tally. The BJP may increase its figures by two seats at max. The saffron outfit will bag anything between 3 to 5 seats, banking on the NaMo wave. The AIUDF and the BPF will finish with one. Meanwhile the AGP will not get more than 2 seats.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	Congress (INC)	5-8
2	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	3-5
3	All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF)	1
4	Bodoland People's Front (BPF)	1
5	Asom Gana Parishad (AGP)	0-2

WATCH OUT

(1) Prospective Alliances: In a multi-cornered contest like in Assam, pre-poll arrangements between parties can change the equation. After staying away from the Third Front, it was speculated that the AGP would renew its friendship with the BJP. Remember, in 2009, the party was a part of the NDA. The alliance could help consolidate the anti-Congress votes. However, the defection of several AGP leaders to the saffron camp may play spoiler. The Congress on the other hand was reportedly keen to join hands with the state’s main Opposition - the AIUDF. Their coming together could pose a big hurdle to the BJP which is hoping to break big this time around. At least for the record, both the AGP and the AIUDF have clarified that they will fight the polls alone. The BPF has already aligned with the INC for the upcoming polls.

(2) Litmus Test for Gogoi: After having led the Congress to a third straight victory in 2011, Tarun Gogoi has cemented his place as the tallest political leader in Assam. The 2014 General Elections will be a test for him. If the Congress performs well, the 'Gogoi Era' will continue; if the party fares badly, the high command will look beyond the incumbent CM in the 2016 state polls. Meanwhile, his son Gaurav has been given a party ticket from Koliabor parliamentary seat. It seems that the senior Gogoi has decided to pass on the baton to the next generation.

(3) AGP - The Fight for Survival: The upcoming polls will also decide if the AGP and its leader Prafulla Mahanta have any future in state politics. After being dislodged in 2001, the party's fortunes have plummeted. In the last legislative polls, the party could win just 10 seats, falling behind relatively newer entrants like the AIUDF and the BPF. Moreover, many of its second rung leaders and cadre have switched their loyalties to other parties, primarily the BJP. In case, the AGP fails to open its account here, which is a likely scenario, you can expect it to sink into the oblivion (Link).

For more posts in this series:
(1) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)