DELHI POLLS 2014 - Part VII

THE BIG WINNERS AND LOSERS

It is but imperative that we start this post by lauding the efforts of the Chief Electoral Officer of Delhi Chandra Bhushan Kumar, his entire team and the security forces in making sure that the whole voting process went on smoothly. In spite of the fact that Delhites were voting for the third time in last 14 months, they came out in record numbers to exercise their democratic right. The voting percentage was a little over 67 much more than that seen during the Lok Sabha polls which shows that we Indians have still not lost faith in the political system.

With the AAP having swept the polls, winning a staggering 67 of the 70 seats, it is but natural that all of its top guns have won their respective constituencies. Leading the list of the big winners is the party chief Arvind Kejriwal who retained the prestigious New Delhi seat by a mrgin of over 31,000 votes beating Nupur Sharma of the BJP and Kiran Walia of the Congress. His close aide and former state cabinet minister Manish Sissodia too was successful from Patparganj where he beat his former colleague Vinod Kumar Binny who was fighting on a BJP ticket. Meanwhile, former ministers Somnath Bharati and Rakhi Bildan who were in the news for all the wrong reasons during the AAP's 49 day regime emerged victorious from Malviya Nagar and Mangol Puri respectively.

Other prominent winners from the AAP include former ministers - Satyendra Kumar Jain (Shakur Basti), Saurabh Bharadwaj (Greater Kailash) and Girish Soni (Madipur) and former Congress leader Alka Lamba (Chandini Chowk).

Considering that only three BJP candidates were able to tide over the AAP tsunami, they deserve to be in the list of the winners. These include Om Prakash Sharma (Vishwas Nagar), Vijendra Kumar (Rohini) and Jagdish Pradhan (Mustafabad).

The casualties in the saffron camp were many. Perhaps, the biggest amongst them was the party's CM candidate Kiran Bedi herself who lost from Krishna Nagar which is believed to be a BJP strong hold since it has been nurtured by former state party leader and Union Minister Dr. Harshavardhan. She was beaten by AAP candidate S K Bagga by a margin of over 2,400 votes. Another well known state leader Prof. Jagdish Mukki had to bite the dust from Janakpuri as he lost out to his rival Rajesh Rishi by over 25,00 votes. Meanwhile, former AAP leaders who had joined the BJP ahead of the polls including former Speaker M S Dhir (Jangapura) and Vinod Kumar Binny (Patparganj) too were beaten. Similarly, former Union Minister Krishna Tirath who had jumped to the saffron camp from the Congress lost from the Patel Nagar constituency. Also, former DU president Nupur Sharma who was pitted against AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal lost by over 30,000 votes.

For the Congress, its campaign chief Ajay Maken lost his deposit from Sardar Bazaar having been beaten by AAP's Som Dutt who polled over 67,000 votes. Like him, former Child and Women Welfare Minister Dr. Kiran Walia lost to the AAP chief having got just over 4,700 votes. Other bigger losers from the party include Muslim faces - Shoaib Iqbal (Matia Mahal) and Haroon Yusuf (Congress), President's daughter Sharmistha Mukherjee (Greater Kailash) and Dr. Yoganand Shastri (Malviya Nagar).

For all posts in this series on Delhi Elections 2015, click here (Link)

DELHI POLLS 2014 - Part VI

THE RESULTS

Though the Opinion polls may have been unanimous in declaring the AAP as the clear winner in the Delhi elections 2015 after the votes were cast on February 7, the magnitude of their victory was grossly under-estimated. Nobody, not even the likes of Kejriwal or Yogendra Yadav would have anticipated that their party would bag over 95 percent of the seats in the state assembly. As Shiv Sena supremo Uddhav Thackeray put it, it seemed that the 'Modi wave' was swept aside by the 'tsunami' in favor of the Aam Admi Party. As early as December last year, many felt that the AAP would find it extremely difficult to get a decent tally, forget thoughts of going past the half way mark, especially after a series of political blunders that they had committed in the past year. The whitewash in the national capital in the Lok Sabha polls was hailed as the beginning of the end of the anti-corruption party. In what can be best described as a 'fairy tale', thousands of AAP volunteers ably led by Kejriwal & Co. worked day in and day out to capitalize on the errors made by the BJP to turn the tide in their favor by getting across their vision for Delhi to the masses.

Courtesy: HD Wallpapers wala

The AAP's phenomenal tally of 67 seats is special in many ways. There are very rare instances in multi-party democracies like ours wherein a single party manages to win such a large percentage of seats. The only other state where such a pattern has been observed in recent times was in Sikkim where the ruling SDF under CM Pawan Kumar Chamling won all 32 seats in the 2009 elections to the state assembly. Prior to that, the party had won 31 seats in 2004. Another important trend to notice is that Kejriwal's outfit won nearly 54 percent of the total votes; again, the way our election process is structured, this is not very common. In fact, 55 of the 67 winning candidates of the AAP won over 55 percent of the votes in their respective constituencies, a clear indication that they had won the confidence of the people across all parts of the city. Prominent winners from the party include Arvind Kejriwal, Manish Sisodia, Somnath Bharati, Rakhi Bidlan and Alka Lamba.

Sr.	Political Party	Seats
1	Aam Admi Party (AAP)	67
2	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	3
3	Congress (INC)	0
4	Others	0

With this memorable win, the AAP has finally managed to stem the Modi juggernaut that had enjoyed unprecedented success in last eight months. The odds were heavily stacked against them. However, the relatively new outfit must be credited for the manner in which they ran their campaign ever since Kejriwal resigned from his post in February last year. With the BJP delaying the elections to the state assembly for reasons best known to them, the AAP got the time to re-group and formulate a strategy to counter the saffronists who were trying to cash in on PM Modi's popularity. Through Delhi Dialogue, the party managed to read the pulse of the voters while convincing them that they would not run away from power this time around. A strict screening process to select candidates and an effective social media campaign further helped their cause. Their 70 point agenda that included some populist measures helped them woo the lower and middle income groups away from the two national parties and helped the AAP register a historic win.

Courtesy: Desktop HD Wallpapers

For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) the results of the Delhi polls have been their worst nightmare. Having bagged 31 seats in the 2013 state elections and won all seven seats in the parliamentary seats the following year, the saffron camp was reduced to just three seats. There is a serious need for introspection within the BJP as many political activists have pointed out, they seem to have handed an easy victory to the AAP on the platter. The delay in scheduling the polls seems to be the first mistake that the party made. As if it was not enough, the infighting within the party's state leadership as well as the move to parachute Kiran Bedi to led the campaign seem to have further contributed to their pathetic performance. In fact, the party seemed to have focused more on 'maligning' Kejriwal's image with PM Modi leading the pitch, rather than telling the people of Delhi what their plans are for the capital. The process of selecting candidates was delayed whereas the saffron camp did not even release a proper manifesto. All in all, the party seemed to have paid a heavy price for being arrogant and for running a 'negative' campaign in the polls. In what was a major setback, the party's CM candidate Kiran Bedi was beaten by AAP's S K Bagga from their stronghold of Krishna Nagar. The only silver lining was that its vote share as compared to the last state polls remained almost stagnant.

For the grand old party of Indian politics, the situation seems to be worsening. The Congress which had ruled the national capital for three straight terms could not even open its account. It managed to win just over 8 percent of the total votes where 62 of its 70 candidates even lost their deposits. Amongst them was its campaign chief Ajay Maken. It is imperative that the party's High Command takes some serious steps to arrest the decline in the fortunes of the INC.

For all posts in this series on Delhi Elections 2015, click here (Link)

DELHI POLLS 2014 - Part V

THE THINGS TO LOOK OUT FOR

I am pretty sure that most of you will agree with me when I say that the elections to Delhi will be the most keenly fought electoral contest following the General polls 2014. The campaign was as bitter as it was intense. Unlike the other recently concluded state polls where the Congress put up a rather feeble resistance to the saffron juggernaut, the BJP seems to have found a worthy opponent in the AAP in the national capital. The AAP leadership as well as the thousands of volunteers and karya kartas working for Kejriwal's outfit deserve a round of applause for resurrecting the party from the shambles after the thumping that it got in May last year all thanks to morchas, bike rallies and nukkad nataks (street dramas) that they have undertaken in the last two months. Of course, the saffronists too made their work easier after a series of electoral blunders that saw them lose a lot of ground to their opponents as the polling date approached. In fact, opinion polls suggest that AAP may actually hold an edge over the BJP; meanwhile, the INC's situation continues to be pathetic. The impact that these polls will have will be huge and here are the points to watch out for as the EVMs are opened and the results are announced this Tuesday:

(1) The AAP's Battle For Survival: One can understand why the Delhi polls is so important for the Aam Admi Party (AAP) and its chief. After being demolished in the General polls and being wiped out of Delhi, Kejriwal & Co. have put all on the line. While many expected them to take a defensive line in wake of the May 2014 drubbing, the party cadre worked relentlessly to consolidate their substantial vote base amongst the low income workers and migrants who have traditional been Congress loyalists, besides luring a sizable chunk of traders away from the saffron camp. In spite of the fact that several of its former leaders have crossed over to the opposing camp, the AAP has fought the BJP tooth and nail using limited means and through unconventional and innovative methods, making sure that their vision of a corruption-free Delhi is put across to the electorate. While highlighting their performance during 49 day long government that the party had formed with the outside support of the Congress, Kejriwal has attacked the NDA regime at the Center for failing to do anything for the people of the capital in spite of being in power for the last seven months.

It is a 'do or die' scenario for the the former IRS officer and his outfit. A win would herald a second innings that would help it expand its support base beyond Delhi whereas a defeat could mean an abrupt end to AAP's political fortunes, making it one of the many parties that promised big things but could never deliver anything substantial. In politics, it is rare that a party gets an opportunity to make a comeback and it remains to be seen if Kejriwal and his outfit can grab this golden opportunity with both hands and make the most out of it, failing which, it could well sink into the oblivion.

(2) The End of Modi Mania? The BJP just had the best year in its three decade long history. Besides winning a clear majority on the floor of the Lok Sabha this May, it emerged victorious in Haryana and Jharkhand. In Maharashtra where it fought the polls without its ally - the Shiv Sena, the saffron outfit emerged as the single largest party, winning nearly twice as many seats as its friend turned foe turned friend. In Jammu Kashmir too, the party fared well, picking up 25 seats, all coming from the Hindu dominated Jammu region. It is clear that the persona of the PM Narendra Modi as a pro-development, no non-sense leader has largely been responsible for this wave of support to the BJP across most parts of the country, including those where the party has had minimal historical presence. As the Modi juggernaut has rolled, the BJP has been able to snatch state after state from the Congress and other weak regional satraps who seem to have been blown away.

However, the big question is whether the Kejriwal would be the man who could put a brake on the Modi bandwagon which till a month back looked unstoppable. Opinion polls suggest that the fight for the capital could be a photo finish between the two main contenders - the BJP and the AAP. The PM has addressed several rallies in Delhi where he tore into the Kejriwal's 'dismal' record while in office and asked him to join the Naxalites. On the other hand, the AAP chief's rallies too saw massive turnouts, much more than that of BJP's CM nominee Kiran Bedi. In fact, regional satraps including Mamta Bannerjee who are gearing up to fight the saffronists in their own backyards have put their weight behind the AAP, an indication of how important that results of Delhi 2015 could be on the Indian political landscape.

There has been a certain section in the media that believes that the Delhi polls are a referendum on Modi. In my opinion, such an analysis is a little far fledged. While the national capital is a cosmopolitan city, the voting patterns here, as in many of the other states and cities across the country cannot be extrapolated to the country as a whole. Of course, while a loss would be a blow to the PM, a victory will be the crowning glory in what has been a superb 14 month period for him and his party.

(3) Can 'Master Strategist' Amit Shah deliver yet again: Though the BJP fought the polls under the leadership of Narendra Modi, it was his Man Friday, Amit Shah was the real architect of the party's amazing tally in May last year. As the chief of the saffron outfit's campaign in the mega state of Uttar Pradesh, he ran an efficient campaign using Modi's persona, flaring up communal sentiments and striking deals with various socio-political organizations, thereby helping the BJP and its ally - the Apna Dal win 73 of the 80 parliamentary seats, a feat unparalleled in the country's electoral history. While the Gandhis and the Yadavs were reduced to their pocket boroughs, Mayawati's BSP was wiped off. As such, it did not come as a surprise when the former Gujarat Home Minister was made the national party president last year.

The move has certainly paid off. In Haryana, he decided to ditch the HJC and the saffron camp still managed to go past the half way mark at 45, forming its first government in the state's electoral history. In Jharkhand, he decided to play safe, forging an alliance with the Mahato's AJSU; the move paid off again with the coalition beating the Congress and the JMM. In the big state of Maharashtra, he took the risk of breaking ties with the Shiv Sena as the saffron allies failed to reach an agreeable seat sharing formula. As the results were announced, Maharashtra had its first BJP CM with members of the Sena joining his cabinet. Though his ambitious 'Mission 44+' did not exactly materialize in J&K, the BJP still win 25 seats, the most it had won ever. No wonder, he is considered to be the best electoral strategist in the country.

Unfortunately for him and his party, Shah's magic seems to be waning in Delhi this time around with the BJP committing one blunder after another. At the beginning of the campaign, the party appointed Satish Upadhyay as the head of its campaign instead of making Dr Harshavardhan its face in the state. With the AAP growing from strength to strength, the saffronists made Kejriwal's former colleague in the anti-corruption movement Kiran Bedi its CM candidate. Although the move was hailed by some as a master stroke, as days went by, it became clear that the former IPS officer failed to match the former Delhi CM's charisma at least in the political arena. In a desperate attempt to bolster the party's fortunes ahead of the polling day, the party president got in a host of bigwigs including the PM, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, Power Minister Piyush Goyal, Commerce Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and over 100 MPs to canvass for the party's nominees. Will this last ditch attempt pay off or will Delhi be a blot on Shah's rather envious report card so far.

(4) Kiran Bedi's political future: While there could be doubts whether the Delhi polls is a referendum on AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal or PM Narendra Modi, one thing is clear. The way the national capital votes will decide for sure, the fate of one politician - BJP's Kiran Bedi. The former tough cop who was with Anna Hazare in the anti-corruption movement is now in the saffron camp. In fact, her appointment as the BJP's CM candidate reportedly sparked infighting amongst the numerous camps that the Delhi unit of the party finds itself in. Though the AAP chief termed this as a move to shield Modi from the blame of the defeat, many thought that Bedi's clean image would compliment the wave in support of the BJP and help it go past the half way mark. Unfortunately, Bedi has not managed to 'set the stage on fire'. A defeat to the BJP would mean the end of her political ambitions though she is expected to easily win her constituency of Krishna Nagar, the stronghold of BJP leader Dr. Harshavardhan. A victory though would make her the CM of the capital.

(5) The fate of the Congress: The 'bad times' for the grand old party seems to never get over. As if the spate of electoral defeats over the last year were not enough, the INC seems to be headed to a third position finish in the Delhi state polls too. Clearly, the move to get in former Union Minister Ajay Maken has not worked the way the loyalists would have thought. The Opinion Polls indicate that the Congress may in fact perform worse than it did in December 2013 when it was reduced to just eight seats. This would be a massive blow to the party and its supporters. Following the rout in the General Polls last year, it seems that the party has not yet been able to re-invent itself or to put it in other words, the electorate has still not forgiven the party for the mistakes that it committed during its decade long regime at the Centre. Anything more than 8 would at least indicate that the Congress has improved its position somewhat whereas a tally less than that would raise serious questions over the party's future. In that case, the voices against Rahul Gandhi and his coterie of supporters will only grow stronger and many heavyweights might actually quit the 'sinking ship' like former minister Jayanti Natarajan did a few days ago.

For all posts in this series on Delhi Elections 2015, click here (Link)

DELHI POLLS 2014 - Part IV

A LOT IS AT THE STAKE FOR THE AAM ADMI PARTY

Though I have been a vivid follower of Indian politics over the last 12 years, I must confess that I have never seen the fortunes of any single political party swing from one end of the scale to the other in such a small time frame viz a viz the Aam Admi Party. Formed by former IPS officer Arvind Kejriwal and his coterie of confidantes following differences of opinion over the future of the anti-corruption movement with their mentor Anna Hazare, the outfit thrived in the national capital all thanks to the growing discontent over the policy paralysis that had become the hallmark of the then Manmohan Singh led UPA II regime. At a time when Modi mania had not yet set in, at least in most parts of the country, Kejriwal managed to captivate the minds of the voters in Delhi, chiefly the middle class by promising to eradicate corruption and reduce power tariffs.

In the 2013 state polls, the AAP on its debut, won a staggering 28 seats, just three seats less than the BJP; with the outside support of the Congress, Arvind was sworn in as the Chief Minister of Delhi, a move hailed by many including me back then, as the first step towards cleansing the entire political system in the country. In the next few days, as the funds started flowing into the party's account, the membership of the AAP too grew by leaps and bounds; several eminent people from many different streams left their 'thriving' professions to join the party as it began spreading its network beyond the borders of the capital. Once in power, Kejriwal did fulfill some of the promises he had made during the campaign like reducing the power tariffs. However, his 49 day reign was marred a host of controversies like Somanath Bharati's mid night raid and the fiasco surrounding his resignation after the Lokpal Bill failed to pass the test in the legislative assembly.

Though supporters of the AAP may not agree with me on this, at least in the open, Kejriwal's move of resigning from the post of the CM was a calculated one. Perhaps, he had hoped that the 'sacrifice' he had made in passing the anti-graft legislation would help him win the hearts of the people across the country. What the former IRS officer failed to realize was that by this time, BJP's PM nominee's talk of development had managed to strike a chord with the masses. The General Polls was a disaster from the AAP's perspective . Of the 400 odd seats that it contested, the party won just four seats even as a host of of its top leaders including Kejriwal himself had to bite the dust. In the next few days, the fortunes of the AAP declined with many observers dipping their pens in black ink and writing its obituaries. Voices of rebellion against the party chief and his coterie grew by the day even as many bigwigs resigned from the outfit.

The next state polls to the Delhi legislative assembly though is without doubt, the most important juncture in the AAP's political history; the results scheduled on February 10 could be the big 'make or break' moment for the Kejriwal led party. With the polls most likely to be a direct contest between the AAP and the BJP, the stakes are high for Arvind Kejriwal; he needs to put the bitter experiences of the past behind and re-affirm his hold over the party. Aware of this, the party decided against putting up candidates in the recently concluded state polls and concentrate only on the capital. The party's campaign is on full swing and the crowds turning out at Kejrwal's gathering indicate that he is not going to go down without a fight.

If the AAP does manage to go past the half way or for a fact even manages to finish as the single largest party in the next assembly, a very likely option, it would herald a second innings for the outfit as well as its chief. This scenario will give him the chance to govern the capital for a full term and implement the many promises he has made to the electorate in the past few months. Besides, this could be the model government that the outfit could showcase to the people across the country, thereby helping him build a strong support base outside Delhi. With Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand going to the polls in the next two years, Kejriwal and the AAP would be in a solid position to make in roads in these surrounding states provided he is in power in the capital. Moreover, all the questions being raised regarding Arvind's 'autocratic' style of functioning will be brushed aside. Moreover, the aura of invincibility surrounding the persona of the PM and the BJP president Amit Shah will be diminished to a large extent, allowing parties like the AAP and for that matter, even the Congress to make a political comeback of sorts.

A loss in the polls to the BJP though would mean a 'death knail' in the political career of the former Delhi CM. For long now, reports have indicated that a series of leaders in the party including Yogendra Yadav, Kumar Vishwas and Shanti Bhushan are miffed with Kejriwal. They believe that the AAP chief has strayed from the path of anti-corruption only to fulfill his personal agenda. In case, the AAP does lose out to the BJP, these voices will only gather momentum in the coming days; in that scenario, the former IRS officer will have to resign from the post of party president citing moral responsibility, failing which, another split in the party is imminent. For the party though, as the principal opposition to the BJP, it will still play a major role in Delhi politics for some years with or without Kejriwal at the helm of affairs. However, by the 2020, one must not be surprised if the battle for the capital becomes a two-sided affair between the saffron outfit and the grand old party, relegating the AAP to the fringes. Under these circumstances, the party's dream of forming a government at the Centre will be all but over.

For all posts in this series on Delhi Elections 2015, click here (Link)

DELHI POLLS 2014 - Part III

THREE REASONS WHY THE BJP MAY NOT WIN THE DELHI POLLS

Though the BJP emerged as the single largest party in the last state polls and painted the national capital in 'saffron' six months later, Modi & Co seem to be on shaky grounds a month before Delhi goes to the polls for the second time in 14 months. Although the party won the national elections, defended two states and won four more from the Congress in this period, the toughest challenge that the incumbent PM and his party face after the recent spate of victories will be going past the halfway mark in the Delhi legislative assembly. Truly, it will be the real test of the Modi mania post his stellar performance in the Lok Sabha polls. The following are the reasons why the saffronists are feeling jittery ahead of the polls:

(1) No direct fight with the Congress: Although Modi, Amit Shah and other BJP leaders must be credited for leading the party to a famous victory over arch rival - the Congress in the General Polls as well as a host of states over the last year, there is no doubt that the negativity surrounding the INC also played a key role in the saffron outfit's stellar performance. Especially in its second term, the UPA regime headed by Manmohan Singh became synonymous with 'corruption'.

Let us examine the performance of the BJP over the span of last 18 months. In December 2013, the saffronists were able to retain Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh in spite of being in power here for a decade; they won an impressive four-fifths majority in Rajasthan and emerged as the single largest party in Delhi. In the big polls, the BJP led NDA won over 330 seats even as the UPA failed to go past 60 seats. In Maharashtra, the party ended with a superb tally of 123 seats in spite of a public fallout with the Sena, more than the number of seats that they would generally contest in the western state if the coalition would have continued. Up north, history was created twice; first in Haryana where the BJP won a simple majority on its own, followed by Jharkhand where its alliance with the AJSU managed to scrape past the required mark. At the same time, the party recorded below par performances in the by-polls in Bihar and UP while it was trounced by the PDP in the race to be the largest party in Jammu Kashmir.

The bottom line is clear; in the recent past, the BJP has done well when it is pitted against the Congress whereas its performance is lackluster when the saffronists square up against strong regional players except in Jharkhand. In Delhi, the February elections are expected to be a straight fight between the BJP and the AAP. As such, unlike last time, the BJP does not have the advantage of banking on the 'anti-incumbency' against the Congress.

(2) The re-emergence of the AAP: The meteoric rise of the Aam Admi Party on the political scenario post their dream debut in Delhi 2013 was marred by a rather long list of electoral blunders - resigning from the government in the national capital, the decision to contest the General Elections et all. Post the defeat in the nation wide polls, the Kejriwal led outfit was lying low with many raising questions over its future. However, the elections to the Delhi legislative assembly is the best opportunity for the AAP to script a fairy tale comeback.

Kejriwal & Co. know that the results in the February polls could be the key to AAP's national ambitions. If it does well, the party could see itself expanding in other states in the next few years whereas a defeat could spell doom. This is why, Arvind Kejriwal and other leaders of the AAP are giving it all. Realizing that the fight is against the BJP, the party that was born out of Anna Hazare's anti-corruption crusade has come out all guns blazing and accused the Modi regime of renegading the promises it made during the poll campaign. Besides, the party continues to have strong voter base, especially amongst the poor and the migrants who look upon it as an alternative to the national parties who have lost their credibility to a large extent.

Moreover, the AAP though it was in power for only 49 days, is still praised by many for the initiatives taken by Kejriwal when he was in power. Also, the angry over his resignation amongst the people of Delhi also seems to have subsided to a large extent.

(3) Infighting: What could derail the Modi bandwagon in the capital is the reported infighting in the BJP which is believed to be split into several warring factions. This is perhaps the reason that the party has decided not to project any leader as its Chief Ministerial candidate if it is voted to power after warming the Opposition benches in the state legislature for over three straight terms. The factional feud is also affecting the ticket distribution; while most parties have already declared their nominees for most of the constituencies, the saffron outfit is yet to make its list official.

The BJP fought the 2013 polls under the leadership of Dr. Harshvardhan who is presently serving as a minister in the Union cabinet. He is unlikely to return to state politics even if the saffron outfit wins. This time around, the party's campaign committee is headed by former student leader Satish Upadhyay who has been with the RSS. Heavy weights like Vijay Goel, Jagdish Mukhi and Vijay Kumar Malhotra are said to be heading the various factions in the state unit of the party and fancying their chances for the top post. The joining of former Kejriwal aide Kiran Bedi has further added fuel to the fire with many feeling that she could be the surprise choice for the CM's chair. Even party spokesperson and MP Meenakshi Lekhi could be a consensus candidate to keep all factions happy.

For all posts in this series on Delhi Elections 2015, click here (Link)

DELHI POLLS 2014 - Part I

MODI v/s KEJRIWAL - ACTION SHIFTS FROM VARANASI TO DELHI

In April last year, AAP supremo and former CM of Delhi Arvind Kejriwal announced his candidature against BJP's PM nominee Narendra Modi from the prestigious constituency of Varanasi along the banks of the River Ganga. Till then, it had been a fairy tale journey for the former IRS officer who was less than an year old in politics. Four months earlier, his newly launched outfit had managed to do the impossible; in the Delhi state polls, the Aam Admi Party (AAP) had a dream debut as it ended with a superlative tally of 28 seats, catapulting it amongst the most popular parties in the political arena. With 'corruption' occupying the central stage, the AAP's vision of a 'graft-free' India found popular support amongst the masses. In spite of falling short of a majority on its own, Kejriwal was sworn in as the Chief Minister of the capital after the Congress party which the former revenue officer had earlier referred to as the 'most corrupt political party' decided to give him outside support for the sake of keeping the 'communal' forces a.k.a the BJP at bay. The arrangement did not remain for long though; after a 49 day tenure largely marred by many unwanted controversies that further hit the outfit's credibility, Kejriwal resigned as he did not have the numbers to pass his pet - Lokpal Bill.

He did not lose heart though; encouraged by the success of his experiments in Delhi, Kejriwal chose to put all the drama behind and decided to go for the big prize. Though his infant party lacked organization and structure in most parts of the country, he decided to nominate candidates from over 400 parliamentary seats. And as if to drive home a point, he personally jumped into the fray against Gujarat CM Modi who was emerging as the clear front runner to the post of country's next PM. Unfortunately, Kejriwal's gamble failed. As the BJP painted the entire country in saffron, the former Delhi CM cut a sorry figure, with many raising questions over his political future.

In my opinion, the Aam Admi Party paid a heavy price for being 'over ambitious'. At a time when Narendra Modi was raising the hopes of a nation that was feeling let down by its incumbent regime through his agenda of 'inclusive development', Kejriwal's campaign of targeting politicians found relatively fewer takers. This was reflected in the results as AAP managed to win just four seats. It was routed in its stronghold of Delhi; most of its prominent leaders including the likes of Kumar Vishwas, Shazia Ilmi and Yogendra Yadav lost to their high profile opponents. And most importantly, the AAP chief himself was trounced by Modi by an impressive margin of over 3.37 lakh votes.

Though he won the face-ff against Kejriwal in Varanasi, the incumbent PM is certainly not the one to forgive and forget. As such, when he spoke at an election rally to kick start the saffron outfit's campaign for Delhi, he tore into the AAP chief's rather short-lived tenure as the state's CM. Though he did not take names, Modi advised the former IRS officer who had once called himself an 'anarchist' to join hands with the Naxals. In a bid to prevent the AAP from drawing political mileage from their move to cut electricity tariffs, the PM promised to raise power generation in the country to make sure it is available for all at cheaper rates. In his 38 minute speech, the PM's went on a complete offensive against Kejriwal aware that the battle for Delhi would be a direct contest between the BJP and the AAP.

Now, he may be down but the AAP leader is definitely not out. After all, even the idea to contest against Modi from Varanasi was a gutsy one. And in spite of a series of setbacks last year, Kejriwal refused to take the salvos fired by the PM lying down. Speaking to the media after the PM's election rally, he refuted the charges against him. Besides, he also accused the BJP government of failing to fulfill the promises it made to the people prior to the General Polls.

So, the stage is set for the second part of the Modi v/s Kejriwal saga. Will Modi make it 2-0 or will the AAP chief make him eve-steven? Lets wait and watch.

For all posts in this series on Delhi Elections 2015, click here (Link)

UTTAR PRADESH & LOK SABHA 2014

THE BATTLE OF BATTLES

Now we come to the big daddy of all - the state of Uttar Pradesh. Having encompassed the entire country, we can now spend some time analyzing the most populous state of the country. Actually, only five countries in the entire world including India have more people than UP. With 80 parliamentary seats up for grabs, the way to Delhi truly passes via Lucknow. In the past though, we have seen that none of the four major parties here have been able to win a decisive victory as far as the last three Lok Sabha elections are concerned. However, in the last two state elections, the mandate has been clear; while Maya crossed the 200 mark in 2007, Akhilesh did even better two years ago (Link). Now the question is whether any of the four main contenders can do the same in the 2014. After that stunning victory, the SP is confident of a good showing. The Congress and the RLD are hopeful of doing what they did in the last General Elections. Mayawati is keen on a comeback whereas the BJP is hopeful that the Modi wave will help them boost their figures.

ISSUES

(1) Development: While it is India's largest state, UP has lagged behind others like Maharashtra, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu in terms of industrial development. In spite of having extensive natural resources at its disposal, fertile soil and abundant water, majority of people continue to remain poor. One of the biggest reasons for this is has been that the local politics has been dominated by factors like caste and religion. However, this time the BJP's PM nominee Narendra Modi has focused his election agenda on the plank of development. Of course this doesn't mean that there has been no caste or communal polarization by the saffron camp. However, the ground reality remains that the people here are keen to usher in development and enjoy fruits of it.

(2) Performance of the Akhilesh Yadav: It has been a little over two years since the young Akhilesh was placed at the helm of affairs in Lucknow. At 39 years old, he was one of the youngest CMs of the country and a lot was expected from him. Probably, the General Elections are the best time to see if the SP leader has been able to win the hearts of the people or not. While his regime has been true to some of its electoral promises made during the campaign, the fact remains that the law and order situation in the state has deteriorated, like in earlier Samajwadi regimes. The failure to prevent the Muzaffarnagar riots and the suspension of upright officer Durga Shakti Nagpal have been blots on the young leader's career so far.

(3) Caste Equations: As mentioned earlier, the caste equations have traditionally dominated the politics in this state since independence. The BSP supremo Mayawati whose famed 'Social Engineering' saw her sweeping the 2007 polls has gone back to the drawing board, hopeful that selection of candidates based on their caste would help her stage a grand come back. Besides, the Dalit votes, she is trying to woo the Brahmins who played a key in her victory seven years ago. The SP is dependent on the support of the Yadavs. The BJP, known as a party of the Upper Castes has roped in the Kurmi outfit - the Apna Dal in its fold.

(4) Communal Polarization: Apart from caste politics, another matter of concern in the big state is communal polarization. This certainly works here as seen during the early nineties when the BJP swept the state, riding on the sentiments following the demolition of the Babri Masjid. The candidature of Narendra Modi has made 'Secularism' a major talking point across the nation, more so in UP which accounts for nearly half of the country's total Muslim population. Moreover, after the Muzaffarnagar riots (Link) in Western UP, communal flares are running high. Amit Shah, whose role in the alleged fake encounters in Gujarat has come under the scanner has been made the head of the BJP's campaign in UP. His visit to the Ram Janmabhoomi and his call to avenge the Muzaffarnagar riots are clearly an attempt to help it win votes on religious lines. SP Muslim face Azam Khan went a step further, claiming that it were 'Muslim' soldiers in the Indian army that won the Kargil war and later even refused to apologize. Congress president Sonia Gandhi met the Shahi Imam Syed Ahmed Bukhari to help consolidate minority votes. Even Mayawati has given many seats to Muslims.

CONTENDERS

(1) Samajwadi Party (SP): There were a lot of expectations as young Akhilesh Yadav was made the CM of UP after he led the party to a handsome victory in the state assembly polls. Two years down the line though, nothing seems to have changed. While his performance has been much better than that of the preceding Mayawati regime, the young Turk's inability to protect the Muslims during the Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013 has led to bad press. With his son in Lucknow, daddy Mulayum Singh Yadav is eyeing a bigger role for himself in national politics, having been a founder member of the Third Front (Link). If he does manage to win over 25 seats, he could be the Federal coalition's PM choice. Apart from highlighting their regime's 'development' work, the SP is also hoping to benefit from communal polarization, especially in the aftermath of the riots and the candidature of Narendra Modi. In fact, senior leader and outfit's Muslim face Azam Khan had been banned by the EC from campaigning for flaring up religious sentiments. Also, in a bid to stem the Modi wave, Mulayum has also decided to contest from Azamgarh, besides his traditional seat of Mainpuri. Other candidates include the CM's wife Dimple Yadav (Kannauj) and party supremo's nephews - Akshay Yadav (Firozabad) and Dharmendra Yadav (Badaun).

(2) Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP): For two long years, Behenji has virtually lost her political dominance in the big state to her bete noire - the SP. After that drubbing she got in 2012, the former UP CM is hopeful that the next Lok Sabha would see her making a grand comeback. However, the BSP's campaign has been rather lackluster. It has not been able to project itself as a strong contender here. Even the talks of alliance with the Congress, something that was doing the rounds for some time failed as Mayawati realized from her past experiences that her allies' votes do not go to her outfit. At the same time we need to keep in mind that she just cannot be written off. The Dalit leader may well spring a surprise like she has done in the past. As usual, she has relied on the caste equations to win seats. Her party's candidates include a mix of mix of SCs, STs, Muslims, Thakurs and Brahmins. Prominent amongst these are Akbar Hussain (Rampur), Shah Alam (Azamgarh), Qadir Rana (Muzaffarnagar), Mukul Upadhyaya (Ghaziabad), Satish Awana (Noida), Seema Upadhyaya (Fatehpur Sikri), and Narayan Singh (Agra).

(3) United Progressive Alliance: In 2009, the Congress performed out of its skin to win over 20 seats. This time, though it has the RLD with it, crossing even the 10 mark is going to be extremely difficult. Even former CM and veteran Congress leader Jagdambika Pal has crossed over to the BJP. The INC found itself in the centre of a controversy as its candidate Imran Masood in a video film threatened to cut Modi into pieces. He was later sent to judicial custody in what turned out to be an embarrassment for the party. As brother Rahul faced stiff competition from Smriti Irani and Kumar Vishwas, sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra came to the rescue, campaigning in the pocket boroughs of Amethi and Rae Bareli. Her war of words with Narendra Modi - the 'Neech Rajneeti' comment and with her cousin Varun provided fodder to the media. The party's nominees include the president Sonia Gandhi (Rae Bareli), her son and vice president Rahul Gandhi (Amethi), former state party president Rita Bahuguna (Lucknow), film stars Raj Babbar (Ghaziabad) and Nagma (Meerut), cricketer Mohammad Kaif (Phoolpur) and ministers - Sri Prakash Jaiswal (Kanpur) and Salman Khurshid (Farrukhabad).

The Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) is fighting the polls in alliance with the Congress. However, the situation for Ajit Singh led party is precarious. The Muzaffarnagar riots have led to a split between the two traditional voters in western UP - the Jats and the Muslims. It is believed that while the former are gravitating towards the BJP, the former may vote for the BSP. The Union government's decision to grant reservation for the Jats may help retain the farmer votes. Also, the party welcomed former SP leader Amar Singh (Link) some time back. Its key candidates include chief Ajit Singh (Baghpat), his son Jayant Chaudhary (Mathura), Amar Singh (Fatehpur Sikri) and his aide Jaya Prada (Rampur).

(4) National Democratic Alliance: For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its Mission 272+ to succeed, it has to win a significant number of parliamentary seats in UP. The saffron camp has come up with a two fold strategy to do well in the state that propelled it on to the national stage. Firstly, the party is banking on Modi's development agenda to strike a chord with the electorate who seem to have been left out of the India growth story. Secondly, for the BJP which came into prominence banking on the Hindutva plank following the demolition of the Babri Masjid, the Muzaffarnagr riots seems to have given it just the kind of the opening that it was looking for. Narendra Modi's close aide Amit Shah was deputed to UP to strengthen the grass root organization and help the party increase its tally. In fact, Shah was gagged by the Election Commission for his revenge remark while campaigning in the communally sensitive Western UP. However, he was let off after he expressed regret for his remark. Another controversy that the party found itself in was the candidature of Modi from Varanasi, a seat represented by senior leader M M Joshi. Though the saffron leader was said to be keen to re-contest from there, he was 'forced' to move to Kanpur. The BJP's candidates include Narendra Modi (Varanasi), Murali Manohar Joshi (Kanpur), Rajnath Singh (Lucknow), Menaka Gandhi (Pilibhit), Varun Gandhi (Sultanpur) and General V K Singh (Ghaziabad).

The Kurmi outfit Apna Dal (AD) has entered into an electoral alliance with the BJP. Party leader Anupriya Patel, who is the daughter of the party founder late Dr. Sonelal Patel will contest from Mirzapur. Meanwhile, Harivansh Singh has been given the ticket from Pratapgarh. The coalition is expected to help the NDA get the support of the Patel community which is strong in some pockets.

(5) Aam Admi Party (AAP): Three of the top AAP leaders are contesting from the big state as the newly launched outfit is planning to make a sensational debut this General Elections. Chief Arvind Kejriwal who resigned as the Delhi CM has filed his nomination from Varanasi against Narendra Modi in what is expected to be the mother of all battles. The kind of support he is getting shows that the temple town along the Ganga is not going to be a cake walk for the Gujarat CM. Poet turned politician Kumar Vishwas has jumped into the fray against another big name - Rahul Gandhi from Amethi. Having come to his constituency nearly three months ago, he is keen to work upon the early bird advantage. Another AAP leader and former journalist Shazia Ilmi is contesting against former Army General V K Singh from Ghaziabad.

PAST PERFORMANCE

In 1996, it was the BJP which swept the state winning as many as 52 seats and the Samajwadis emerged as the second largest party in UP while the Congress and the BSP were reduced to single digits. Two years later, the saffronists ended up with 57 seats, the highest that any party has got in the big state over the last two decades. While the NDA came to power in 1999, its tally here was reduced by half. The SP came in at a close second and the BSP and the INC crossed into the two digit mark. Five years down the line, Mulayum's party reached its zenith, winning 35 seats. Even Maya bagged 19 seats while the BJP's numbers plummeted to just 10, one more than the INC. Finally in 2009, the SP slipped to 23 although it did end up as the largest party in the state. The big surprise was the Congress which bagged 21 seats, one more than the BSP. The BJP cut a sorry figure at 10.

Political Party	2009	2004	1999	1998	1996
Samajwadi Party (SP)	23	35	26	20	16
Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP)	20	19	14	4	6
Congress	21	9	10	-	5
Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD)	5	3	2	-	-
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	10	10	29	57	52
Others	1	4	4	4	6

(1) There were 85 seats in the state of Uttar Pradesh before the creation of Uttarakhand in 2001.

MY PREDICTIONS

The Modi wave in Uttar Pradesh coupled by some smart decisions made on the ground by Amit Shah will help the BJP and its allies win close to 50 seats. The SP will be the runners up and may win up to 15 seats. The BSP will struggle to cross into two digits whereas the Congress-RLD combine will virtually be wiped out.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	NDA (BJP + AD)	46-50
2	Samajwadi Party (SP)	12-16
3	Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP)	7-11
4	UPA (Congress + RLD)	3-7
5	Others	0-2

WATCH OUT

(1) A Modi wave in UP? With Amit Shah supervising the party campaign in Uttar Pradesh, many are expecting a Modi wave in UP. The state sends 80 MPs to the Lower House and a good showing here could propel the NDA close to the half way mark. The best showing that the saffronists had here was in 1998 when the BJP under Vajpayee won as many as 57 seats. There is no doubt that Modi's nomination from Varanasi was an effort to help the party's cause in the country's most populous state (Link). The question is whether the saffron camp can replicate that success, especially with the grass root organization being weakened and the star emergence of the two regional players - the SP and the BSP.

(2) Performance of the three regional players and their role in the Third Front: For the Third Front to have any chance whatsoever of coming to power, the regional parties have to do well. In fact with the SP and the BSP chiefs not seeing eye to eye, practically only one of the two i.e. the one which finishes with more seats could be a part of such a confederation. With the SP winning a massive electoral victory in 2012 state polls, Mulayum is expected to do well. The former UP CM like many other regional players is said to be nursing PM ambitions. Mayawati too is keen to make a comeback. After being demolished in 2012, the Dalit ki Beti is hopeful that a 20+ show could help her regain some lost pride. Another small regional player is the RLD. Having been a part of both the NDA and the UPA over the last five years, it would not take much for him to change loyalties and help either of the three major coalitions in case they fall short of numbers in the Parliament.

(3) Can the Congress do a miracle, yet again? In 2009, the Congress did a extremely well, winning as many as 21 seats in UP. Considering that the party's organization has completely eroded here in the past, the performance was incredible. As usual, many Congressmen gave the credit of that spectacular showing to Rahul Gandhi. Of course, that bubble bursted in the 2012 state assembly elections when in spite of heavy campaigning by Baba, the grand old party failed to even cross the 25 mark; in fact, their performance even in the family boroughs of Amethi and Rae Bareli was bad. Besides, many believed that Varun Gandhi's controversial statement in Pilibhit helped consolidation of the Muslim votes in favor of the INC. Now, in 2014 the Gandhi in the saffron camp has not made any such statement. So the question is whether the Congress can even come to close to that figure in got in the last Lok Sabha polls.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

DELHI & LOK SABHA 2014

WHO WILL STORM DELHI?

Now I do not think anybody will disagree when I say that the Delhi elections were arguably the most keenly contested amongst all polls in 2013. After 15 years of being in power, the capital voted out its longest serving CM Sheila Dixit as the INC crawled to a tally of eight. The BJP, in spite of doing exceedingly well in MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan could not cross the half way mark on its own. And the phenomenal success of the AAP, fighting its maiden electoral battle was mesmerizing with many hailing it as the new beginning in Indian politics. With no party winning a majority, Arvind Kejriwal did a volte face, taking the support from the same INC which he had termed as 'corrupt' during the campaign. The short lived AAP government did deliver on some of its promises till the INC pulled the plug following differences over the Lokpal Bill. And many say that it was here that Kejri & Co. lost the plot. At a time when they had not established themselves in Delhi, the outfit decoded to go national. In fact, I would not be wrong to say that a certain section of AAP supporters have questioned the logic behind all this. The backdrop has been set just on the eve of the Union Elections. In fact, one of the biggest talking points this elections is after all the dharnas, the drama and the hung assembly, who will win the nation's capital in this triangular contest.

ISSUES

(1) Corruption: It was at Ramleela Maidan in the heart of Delhi that Anna Hazare and his team launched the hunger strike which ended capturing the conscience of the entire country. While the Gandhian may have had an ugly split with Kejriwal in the later months, the issue of corruption continues to be the biggest talking point of Lok Sabha 2014. The never ending list of scams that have rocked UPA II including 2G, Railgate, Coalgate and even the Delhi Common Wealth Games have tarnished the name of the Manmohan regime. The Congress is clearly on the backfoot. However, even BJP cannot claim to be hold the upper hand on this after accepting tainted leaders like B S Yeddyurappa and B Sriramalu back into the party fold.

(2) Bijli, Sadak aur Paani: One of the issues on which the AAP fought the last state elections was reduction of power tariffs and 24 hour water supply to the people of the city. In fact, after coming to power, the party stayed true to its word. Now, in the run up to the big polls, the party is set to talk about its achievements in its 49 day regime. Meanwhile, price rise and uncontrolled inflation have been the other hallmarks of the last Union government. The BJP has accused the incumbent regime of failing to bring relief to the common man.

(3) Women's Safety: Apart from corruption, if there is one more issue which has grabbed all the eyeballs in the last three years, it is the safety o the women across the country. it was the brutal gang rape and murder of the 23 year old 'Nirbhaya' in a moving bus in the capital which reminded us of how much more needs to be done in this regards. Former Delhi minister Somanth Bharati's mid night raid and alleged 'harassment' of some Nigerian women has hit his party's standing. The BJP and the AAP have fielded female candidates in some of the parliamentary seats to draw political mileage out of the situation.

(4) Social Fabric: Being the cosmopolitan city that it is, the politics here continues to be split along caste and ethnic lines. The capital attracts large number of migrants, most from Haryana, UP and Bihar. The Muslims form nearly 10 percent of the total population in the state. Similarly, the Sikhs too are a sizable minority. Which way these groups vote may end up affecting the results in quite a few constituencies.

CONTENDERS

(1) Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): After winning 31 seats in the recently concluded state assembly polls, the saffron camp is hoping to reverse its disastrous defeat in 2009 where it drew a blank. The BJP is riding on the Modi wave as well as the bad performance of the Congress led UPA in its second term to reclaim its former 'citadel'. Buoyed by its good showing in 2013, the party knows that winning big here will not only help it in its 'Mission 272+' but also help crush the AAP. The party has fielded heavyweights - former CM nominee Dr. Harsh Vardhan (Chandni Chowk), Bhojpuri actor Manoj Tiwari (North East Delhi) and spokesperson Meenakshi Lekhi (New Delhi).

(2) Aam Admi Party (AAP): After a spectacular debut, probably the best in recent times, there are lots of expectations from Kejriwal's outfit. In fact, at the time when Arvind Kejriwal took oath as the CM of India's capital, many thought that the revolution that was AAP would soon spread across the country. Of course, there is endless debate regarding the the timing of Kejriwal's resignation. However, that is something we will discuss later. Meanwhile, Delhi is extremely crucial for the AAP, not only in Lok Sabha 2014 but also for its political future. Its nominees include former state minister Rakhi Birla (North-West Delhi), journalist Ashutosh (Chandi Chowk) and Gandhiji's grandson Raj Mohan (East Delhi).

(3) Congress: The grand old party may be down but is certainly not out. It may have been reduced to single digits but the Lok Sabha polls is a different story all together. Some of the party's biggest names come from here including a few Central ministers - Kapil Sibal (Chandi Chowk), Ajay Maken (New Delhi) and Krishan Tirath (North West Delhi). Besides, Sandeep Dixit - the son of former CM Sheila Dixit has been renominated from East Delhi.

PAST PERFORMANCES

The National Capital Territory of Delhi has been a swing state as far as politics is concerned, with one of the two major national parties sweeping it. Between 1996 and 1999, it was a BJP bastion with the saffron outfit increasing its tally by 1 each time. In 1999, as the NDA formed its government under Vajpayee, the capital region gave a big thumbs up to the saffronists. On the other hand, in the last two General Elections, the Congress has had the upper hand. In 2009, exactly ten year after that disastrous rout, the INC extracted sweet revenge from its rival winning the state 7-0.

Political Party	2009	2004	1999	1998	1996
Congress	7	6	-	1	2
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	-	1	7	6	5

MY PREDICTIONS

The fight is between the BJP and the AAP. However, the manner in which the Kejriwal-led government resigned in haste is clearly affecting his party's prospects in the General polls. The saffron camp, in my opinion holds the edge. The Congress is no where in the picture.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	3-5
2	Aam Admi Party (AAP)	1-3
3	Congress	0-1

WATCH OUT

(1) Litmus Test for the AAP: The upcoming polls in many ways will determine the future of the Aam Admi Party. After that fairy tale debut, the party became the toast of ht nation till it resigned after failing to get consensus on the Jan Lokpal Bill. Many in the country think that the move was a blunder. Moreover, in a bid to generate political mileage out of this, the party decided to go national and has fielded candidates across the country. While it may not do too well in other states, Delhi is extremely crucial as it is where the party was born. If the party fails, then it will be a big blow and would adversely impact its performance in the state polls too.

(2) The State Polls: After the Congress withdrew its support to the AAP regime in February this year, it is expected that the polls to the state legislative polls will be held sometime this year. And there is no doubt that whosoever wins Delhi in the General Elections will naturally have an upper hand in the state elections too. An NDA win will make the BJP firm favorites; a third term of the UPA, though highly unlikely will give a big boost to the INC whereas AAP will better its tally if they can win the maximum parliamentary seats here.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

CREDIBILITY ISSUES

ANNA HAZARE'S CONSTANT FLIP FLOPS WILL ONLY DAMAGE HIS CREDENTIALS

Source: India Today

It was August 2011. As the seventy-four year old Gandhian and anti-corruption crusader Anna Hazare gave a clarion call to the country to unite for the passage of the Lokpal Bill, thousands came out in his support. In Bangalore as hundreds of IT professionals came out on the streets to form a human chain to show their solidarity to the cause, I and my friends joined the agitation too. As the government finally buckled under pressure, Anna became the toast of the nation. His fast-unto-death had awakened the consciousness of a nation that seemed to be drifting from the path that our founding fathers wanted us to follow while on its quest to become a super power. It was just a matter of time before one realized that the social activist had been betrayed by the politicians who knew that their powers would be curbed if the Jan Lokpal Bill, as formulated by Anna and his aides was to pass through the Parliament. Over the last two years, Hazare has raised the issue of corruption several times. However, he has never been able to get the kind of support that one witnessed in the winter of 2011. One of the reasons for this, at least in my opinion has been the fact that his credibility has taken a massive beating. After hobnobbing with several political parties and then 'ditching' them, you cannot expect the masses to still rally behind you.

A look at the events in the last two years shows that the Gandhian has done business with outfits across India's political landscape and later abandoned them. During the height of the 2011 agitations, as thousands of BJP and RSS workers lent their support to the erstwhile 'Team Anna', the activist was all praise for Gujarat CM Narendra Modi and Bihar CM Nitish Kumar. Anna, who himself has done a lot in the field of rural development in his home state of Maharashtra had asked other CMs in the country to emulate their work in this regards. His kind words for Modi, whose role in the 2002 Gujarat riots is under the scanner had not gone well even with some of his ardent supporters. However, in a visit to Gujarat in 2013, he lambasted the BJP's PM nominee for his failure to appoint a Lokayukta in the state. Though he had targeted the Congress during his earlier rallies, accusing them of not being tough against graft, he did a complete volte-face as he wrote a letter to party Vice President Rahul Gandhi for his role in passing the Lokpal and the Lokayukta Bills in the Parliament. This even as the legislations were different from the ones draft by Hazare and his team two years ago. As if these U-turns were not enough, he publicly endorsed Mamata Bannerjee's candidature for the post of the country's next PM a few weeks back, hailing her as the only leader capable of tackling corruption. He even made an appearance in Trinamool's TV advertisements, asking people to vote for the Bengal CM. Buoyed by this the TMC chief decided to give wings to her national dreams by holding joint rallies with the Gandhian, first in Delhi and another in Ahmedabad. However, hours before the Delhi rally, the septuagenarian ditched Didi. In an interview to media when he was quizzed about his absence, he accused the organizers of failing to get the crowds. Moreover, he declared that he only supported Mamata and not her party. Of course, the question arises as to why he appeared in TMC ads if he never supported the party. And finally, his numerous outbursts against his former right hand man Arvind Kejriwal are well known.

While I am unhappy with Anna's flip-flops, it does not take away from all the good work that he has done in the past. After leaving the army in the 1960s, he came back to his village of Ralegan Siddhi and set out transforming it. Over the years, he helped in the upliftment of this and several nearby villages. His work in rural development with the active participation of local communities was appreciated and won him the Padma Bhushan in 1992. Besides, it was his indefinite hunger strike that brought the issue of corruption in the limelight, thereby pressuring our Netas and Babus. Moreover, Anna's role model - Mahatma Gandhi, the father of the nation too was known for 'changing his mind' on issues throughout his life. The point I want to emphasize is that thanks to his myriad U-turns, Anna's credibility has certainly taken a hit owing to his short lived 'associations' with various political parties. By changing his stance on politicians in such short time spans, he is damaging his own image. We all know that history can be extremely cruel. It may only remember Anna as a man of contradictions who could never stick to his words. Of course, having done so much social service in his life, he certainly deserves more respect than this. It is up to him. The anti-corruption crusader will have to choose his words rightly and follow it up with actions too.

IMAGES

(1) Source: India Today 
Original: Anna Hazare denies praising Modi, say BJP's agenda is communal (Link)

BABUS ON A TOUR

MLAs PLAN A FOREIGN TOUR AS DROUGHT HITS KARNATAKA

While the British government has tried to correct a mistake from the past by granting a royal pardon to the great Alan Turing (Link), it seems that the netas back home have not learnt their lessons. It was in 2012, that a group of MLAs from Karnataka were caught by the media 'holidaying' in Argentina while on a supposed 'study tour' to the South American country even as large parts of the state were reeling under drought. The plea by the then CM Jagdish Shettar to his colleagues in the Vidhan Sabha to refrain from the foreign visit fell on deaf ears as legislators spanning across political parties shamelessly enjoyed their vacation in Latin America, neglecting the duties towards the people who they had sworn to serve. Although it has been just over an year after that infamous incident came into the limelight, a period that witnessed a change of regime in Bengaluru, there has not been much change in the mindset of our politicians who think they can do whatever they want and then get away with it. Earlier this week, it was reported that a contingent of 18 MLAs were planning a junket to the same destination and the itinerary is said to include a tour of the Amazonian forests, shopping in Rio, watching samba and tango and the icing on the cake - a desert safari in Dubai on the way back. Considering that over 25 per cent of the talukas in the state are facing acute shortage of water, there has been an outrage over the trip. Though CM Siddaramiah has tried to wash his hands off the matter and the Opposition has asked its members to opt out, the audacity of our elected representatives in justifying the spending of tax payers hard earned money on such 'useless' outings is an insult to the people of the largest democracy in the world.

It is indeed deeply saddening that a country that produced stalwarts like Mahatma Gandhi, Subash Chandra Bose and Vinoba Bhave is today governed by crooks who seem to have forgotten all their responsibilities towards the electorate. While corruption has spread like cancer, we are fast becoming a morally deficient nation. The justification given by Congress MLA Mallikaiah Guttedar who also heads the Legislative Committee that planned this trip is shocking to say the least. While 'complaining' that MLAs get to go on a foreign tour only once unlike MPs who get this privilege several times in their tenure, Guttedar said that spending a few lakhs on this junket out of the state budget of 1.21 lakh crore is not a big deal. Speaking to reporters, he explained that the reason for the tour was to study the water falls system of Amazon and sporting activity.  He also said that he had learned a lot of things from his earlier tour to the US. And finally like all politicians, he believed that it was a conspiracy that such incidents are only reported from Karnataka whereas trips are undertaken by legislators in all other states. Wow!!! At a time when there is paucity of water both for people and cattle in the state, common sense tells us that it will be better if our babus can think of ideas to solve this problem. In fact, the same money can be used for fruitful purposes like compensating farmers whose crops have failed or for implementing measures like improving irrigation and promoting rain water harvesting. Desert safari can also be done in Thar; not only will this turn out to be cheaper, it will be a fillip to domestic tourism. And finally, our MLAs should concentrate on their constituencies and improve the lives of the people who voted them to power rather than undertaking tours to foreign nations.

I am tempted to view this entire episode against the backdrop of the coming to power of the Aam Admi Party (AAP) government in Delhi. Barely one year after he flouted a new outfit with the aim of cleansing the entire system, former IRS officer and Anna lieutenant Arvind Kejriwal beat three time Delhi CM Sheila Dixit by a margin of over 27,000 votes as the AAP bagged a whopping 28 seats in the recently concluded Delhi assembly elections. Though the BJP finished as the single largest party in the new legislature, its failure to go past the majority mark on its own in spite of the numerous scams that hit the incumbent government in the last few years is something that its leaders have to retrospect upon. The people of the national capital have made a clear choice and more importantly sent a strong message - they do not mind handling the reins of the government to first timers if they feel they are honest. And after coming to power, Kejriwal has started delivering almost immediately - doing away with red beacons for ministers and fulfilling the pre-poll promise of providing free water to private homes. Not only the AAP, voters do not mind re-electing their leaders who are known for good governance as it happened in Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh some time back. The verdict of the final leg of the state elections should be a warning bell for petty MLAs like Guttedar & Co. If they believe that their actions will not affect their poll prospects then they are wrong. Today's voter is highly aware of the thing that happen around him and it is in their interest if our political parties and their members don't take them for granted. If they do so, then the people will teach them a lesson.