NAGALAND & LOK SABHA 2014

WILL THE NPF CLAIM A HAT-TRICK? 

The results of the state elections held in the North-Eastern state of Nagaland threw up an interesting result. The ruling NPF under Neiphiu Rio won a rather comfortable victory as it ended up increasing its tally by 11 seats to finish with a staggering tally of 37 (Link). While it was still not a sweep, the thing to note was that the Congress, the principal Opposition in the state assembly was decimated. An year down the line as the state gears up to elect one representative to the Lok Sabha, the NPF seems to have the edge. The regional party has won the lone MP seat twice in a row and many are expecting the trend to continue this time around too. The popularity of the incumbent CM still remains high and the massive margin of his victory in February 2013 only re-affirms this. Besides this, as many as seven parties, including the BJP have pledged their support to the candidature of Rio, further boosting his chances.

ISSUES

(1) Political Scenario in the State: In the 60 member state assembly, CM Rio enjoys the backing of about 50 MLAs, including the 37 members belonging to the NPF. After claiming a hat-trick in Kohima, the NPF is expected to repeat this feat even in the General Elections too. While Rio is talking about the work that has happened here in the last 11 years, the Congress has come up with a booklet highlighting the failures of the DAN regime over the last decade. Accusing Rio and his cabinet of indulging in rampant corruption, the INC is hoping that anti-incumbency will work in its favor.

(2) Caught between the Devil and the Deep Sea: The people of Nagaland have to choose between the two major coalitions in the country today - the UPA and the NDA. The UPA regime in its last term has failed on multiple accounts. It has become synonymous with scams, price rise and high inflation. However, voting for NDA won't be easy, especially with Narendra Modi as its PM nominee. Nearly 90 percent of the people here are Christians. Considering the apprehensions that minorities have against the Gujarat CM, there are chances that some may prefer casting their vote for Congress.

(3) Greater Nagaland: This is one emotive issue that politicians in Nagaland raise prior to any election. For long, the people here have demanded the establishment of a new state in the North-East encompassing of Naga dominated areas. On the other hand, several other neighboring states have opposed this since it would compromise its territorial extent. Besides, there is an underground movement spearheaded by terror organizations like the NSCM-K and NSCM-IM. While terror related violence may reduced significantly over the last few years, the issue finds a mention in rallies of both, the NPF and the Congress.

CONTENDERS

(1) The Nagaland People's Front (NPF): The incumbent CM - Neiphiu Rio is the official candidate of the Democratic Alliance of Nagaland (DAN). He is the only Chief Minister apart from Narendra Modi who has filed his nominations for elections to the Lower House in 2014. After ruling the state for eleven years, the sixty-four year old veteran wants a bigger role for himself on the national stage. Off late, Rio seems to be taking a keen interest in the General Polls. Remember, he was instrumental in the formation of the North-East Regional Front (Link) late last year. Moreover, on the campaign trial, he has said that the only way to develop the state and the region is to be a part of the Union government. The regional party has already pledged its support to the Modi led NDA at the Centre, hailing former PM Vajpayee for his work in the North-East. Seven other parties in the state including the BJP, the JD(U), the NCP and four other minor parties.

(2) Congress: The odds are stacked heavily against the primary opposition party in the state. Already infested with in-fighting amongst its state leaders, the grand old party is facing a tough candidate in Rio. Also with the backing of seven other outfits, the NPF seems poised to win big this time around. The INC has nominated senior state leader K V Pusa to take on the serving CM. Pusa had won the state assembly elections four times in a row before losing in 2013.

PAST PERFORMANCES

The Congress was the winner between 1996 and 1999 from the single parliamentary seat here. On the other hand, the NPF has emerged victorious on the last two occasions.

Political Party	2009	2004	1999	1998	1996
Nagaland People's Front (NPF)	1	1	-	-	-
Congress (INC)	-	-	1	1	1

MY PREDICTIONS

After recording a spectacular victory in February last year, I expect the NPF to continue its domination of state politics.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	Nagaland People's Front (NPF)	1
2	Congress (INC)	0

WATCH OUT

(1) What if Rio wins? Now there will be an interesting situation in case Rio wins the parliamentary seat from here. He has been already talking about a national role for himself and will fight for a ministerial berth in case the NDA, which he is a part of at the moment, comes to power.In fact, even if the UPA wins a third term, the incumbent CM should not have any problems supporting it. After all, the NPF was giving outside support to the Manmohan regime in the last Lok Sabha. If Rio does shift his base to New Delhi, the state is all set to get a new Chief Minister. On the other hand if he decides to stay back in Kohima, then a re-election to the parliamentary seat will be necessitated.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

ARUNACHAL PRADESH & LOK SABHA 2014

WHO WILL WIN INDIA's EASTERN MOST STATE?

The people of the eastern state of the Arunachal Pradesh are all set to elect representatives to the state as well as to the Parliament this April. Five years ago, the ruling Congress under CM Dorjee Khandu did extremely well here bagging the two MP seats and winning a simple majority in the legislative assembly. However, the former CM did not live long enough to reap the fruits of his hard work. Jarbom Gamlin was placed at the helm of affairs but was quickly replaced by Nabam Tuki following a political crisis. The upcoming polls are in many ways a test for Tuki to re-affirm his position as the top INC leader in the state. The BJP is fully dependent on Narendra Modi to spell his magic on the people here. Though it may have given up the fight for Itanagar, it is keen to do well in the parliamentary polls.

ISSUES

(1) The Political Scenario in the state: Considering the fact that Arunachal will witness both the national and state polls together, you can expect the local issues to be dominant. One interesting aspect will be the strength of each party. In spite of the untimely death of Dorjee Khandu and the controversy surrounding the leadership of interim CM Jarbom Gamlin, the incumbent - Nabam Tuki must be credited for keeping a firm grip on his flock. In fact, the INC which won 42 seats in 2009 ended up increasing its tally to 55 as MLAs from various parties joined it. Even in 2014, the party is facing no opposition in 11 seats. On the other hand, other parties are extremely weak. Although another former CM Gegong Apang has re-joined the saffron camp, the party is unlikely to go beyond the two digit mark. The PPA, the NCP and the TMC are other important players. There are a lot of expectation though from the NPF.

(2) The failures of UPA II: Now I doubt whether this will be a poll issue or not on the ground but the BJP is raking this ahead of the Union Elections. Even the staunchest supporters of the Congress-led regime will agree that the UPA's performance in its second innings has been far from satisfactory. The INC has failed to curb price rise, control inflation, prevent scams and so on.

(3) Discrimination: Since long, the people of North-East have alleged that they face discrimination in other parts of the country. In January this year, an Arunachali teenager Nido Taniam - the son of a MLA was killed in Delhi after he protested against comments being made on his appearance. The issue became a major rallying point for the the people of this part of the country living in Delhi with protest marches and candle vigils being organized at several locations. Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi participated in one of these. Even Modi has asked for Indians to end the discriminatory treatment meted out to our brothers from the North-East.

(4) The Chinese Angle: For several decades, China has claimed Arunachal, saying that it was a part of Tibet which was occupied by the Britih when they ruled the Sub-Continent. Over the years, the state has become a bone of contention between the two Asian giants with the Chinese even giving stapled visas to visitors from here. The Red Army has intruded into Ladakh at regular intervals and there is a sense that the Indian government is not doing enough to tackle this. Narendra Modi, at one of his rallies has lashed out at Beijing, asking it to curtail its imperial ambitions.

CONTENDERS

(1) Congress: A deep dive into the state's political past shows that it has largely been the INC's bastion. With the opposition literally in tatters, at least in the state polls, you can expect the grand old party to sweep Arunachal. Eleven of the party's nominees are set to be elected unopposed including incumbent CM Nabam Tuki. While the fight for the Itanagar may be easy, the same cannot be said about the two seats to the Lower House of the Parliament. The BJP is seeing an increase in popularity and wants to replicate its success of 2004. Besides, Rahul Gandhi has talked about the infrastructure development that has happened here under the party's regime in the state and Centre. The INC has nominated its incumbent MPs - MoS for Minority Affairs Ninong Ering (Arunachal East) and Takam Sanjoy (Arunachal West) from here.

(2) Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): While the saffron outfit may not be able to stop the Congress juggernaut in the state, there is no doubt that the BJP is going very strong in the two Lok Sabha seats. The party's strategy is simple. With a weak state leadership in Itanagar, it is relying on the persona of Narendra Modi to get the votes in the eastern-most state. The BJP has launched the 'Sarhad ko Pranam Yatra' here and its volunteers are going on a door-to-door campaign. The Gujarat CM too has attended a few rallies here which have seen decent crowds. The party's candidates for the big polls are Kiren Rijiju from West and Tarir Gao from East.

Others: Apart from the two big national parties, there are several other smaller contenders in the fray. The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Trinamool Congress (TMC) had a good debut in 2009 when they won five seats each. However, most of their elected MLAs later joined the ruling Congress. The People's Party of Arunachal (PPA) is a regional party which is fighting hard for its political existence. The Naga People's Front (NPF) which has been in power in Nagaland too has fielded its candidates in some areas.

PAST PERFORMANCE

Over the last five Lok Sabha polls in Arunachal, one party ends up winning both the MP seats. In 2009 and in 1999, it was the Congress that swept the state. However, in 2004, even as the BJP faced a shock defeat, the people here voted for the saffron outfit. Six years earlier, it was the Arunachal Congress - a splinter group of the INC led by former CM Gegong Apang that was the clear winner. In 1996, two independent candidates had won from both the parliamentary seats in the state.

Political Party	2009	2004	1999	1998	1996
Congress	2	-	2	-	-
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	-	2	-	-	-
Arunachal Congress (AC)	-	-	-	2	-
Independent	-	-	-	-	2

MY PREDICTIONS

While Opinion Polls are suggesting a one each for the BJP and the Congress, I think the saffronists have a good chance of bagging both the seats. Modi's rallies have drawn sizable crowds and this is surely going to be beneficial for the outfit. Meanwhile, the INC will utmost win one seat.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	1-2
2	Congress (INC)	0-1

WATCH OUT

(1) Easy win for Congress in state polls: The grand old party is all set to comfortably win the polls to the legislative assembly this April. As many as 11 candidates of the party, which is as good as 20 percent of the strength of the assembly, are set to be elected unopposed. As such, the party has to win only 20 seats of the remaining 49. In the outgoing assembly, the party had the backing of 55 MLAs. While it may not be able to win so many seats this time around, the INC may finish with a tally of over 40.

(2) Can the BJP break big? The BJP has played its cards well. Aware that it does not have any big state leader to garner votes, it is relying on its PM nominee Narendra Modi to do well, both in General as well as the state polls. What will be interesting to watch is whether the saffron outfit can cross the two digit mark in the local elections. The BJP had formed a short lived regime in Itanagar when a large chunk of Congress MLAs under former CM Gegong Apang had defected, way back in 2003. Apart from that, it has always remained a small fry here. Meanwhile, Apang has quit the Congress to come back to the saffron fold.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

THE NORTH-EASTERN CONFEDERACY

THE NEW ALLIANCE ON THE BLOCK

Source: Wikipedia

Just ahead of the 2014 General Elections, a group of parties from the North-east have come together to form the North East Regional Political Front (NERPF) with the novel aim of 'safeguarding the interest of the people of the region'. Earlier this week, representatives from 11 regional outfits came together in Guwahati to announce this new alliance which is expected to be a significant player in the run up to the big polls. While former CM of Assam and AGP chief Prafulla Kumar Mahanta was appointed as the chief adviser of this new front, other advisers include Paban Kumar Chamling - the Chief Minister of Sikkim, former CMs Donkupar Roy of Meghalaya and Joram Thanga of Mizoram. Serving Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio of the NPP who won a second consecutive term earlier this year beating the Congress was named as the chief convener of the NERPF. The leaders of  the new coalition which includes the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), the Naga People's Front (NPF), the United Democratic Party (UDP), the Hill State People's Democratic Party (HSPDP), the Manipur People's Party (MPP), the Manipur State Congress Party (MSCP), the Manipur People's Democratic Front (MPDP), the Mizo National Party (MNP), the People's Party of Arunachal (PPA) , the Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF) and the Indigenous People's Front of Twipra (IPFT) has left its doors open for other regional players to join them. In fact, this news has created a flutter in political circles. Former Punjab CM Surjit Singh Barnawala of the Akali Dal was present on the occasion to express his support and even TDP chief Chandra Babu Naidu is said to be in touch with its leaders.

The NERPF seems to be making the right kind of noise at least for the time being. Belonging to a part of the country that has largely been ignored by the political establishment in New Delhi, the front has taken the cause of the North east, promising to work for the region that has never got its due, either politically or economically. It has been critical of China's claims over the state Arunachal, asking for measures against Chinese incursion into Indian territory. Battered by years of neglect and insurgency, the region lags behind the rest of the country in terms of development. The NERPF has called for Beijing to stop work on all dams in the upper stages of the Brahmaputra which is the lifeline of the region, with immediate effect. On similar lines, it has taken a strong stand against Bangladesh, asking the government not to go ahead with the proposed the enclave swapping deal with our eastern neighbor. Besides, it has called for the deportation of illegal migrants who have crossed over to our side. The alliance has asked the Centre to withdraw the Arms Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) - an emotive issue, especially in the troubled state of Manipur, from all of the North-east. Like all regional players, it has promised to provide reservation in Central government jobs for the people of the region, the rebuilding of the Slitwell Road and implementation of the Look East policy which seems to have lost its steam over the years. Lastly, the NERPF has asked for the scrapping of the Concurrent list and transferring all the subjects in it to the State List - the eternal dream of all federalists. 

While the leaders may claim to be working in the interests of the region, there is more to it than than just that. In spite of all the hype over the Third Front, the reality on the ground is that regional parties in the smaller states, except for the Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab, the SDF in Sikkim and the NPF in Nagaland are in the decline. In the North-east, these outfits are losing ground to the Congress which has made the region one of its strong holds across the nation. The party under the leadership of Tarun Gogoi won a third straight term in 2011 assembly elections, winning 79 of the 126 seats as the AGP was reduced to single digit. In alliance with the BJP, the party won a single seat in the 2009 Lok Sabha. Earlier this year, the HSPDP and the UDP could only win 12 seats in total in Meghalaya as the IPFT drew a blank in Tripura where the Red fever was on a high. The MNP has just 5 MLAs in the Mizoram legislature, as opposed to the ruling INC which won 32 seats on its own; the PPA has only 4 seats in Arunachal and the MSCP has 5 MLAs in Manipur. Considering the dismal state that majority of the constituents find themselves in, the move will send across the right message to the electorate while helping to consolidate the anti-Congress votes. In a place like north-eastern India where the political space is fragmented amongst smaller parties, all catering to a section of the society, the united front will give a big boost to the regional players who are keen to win back their lost space. However, other than the Congress, the North-East Front will have to fight out with a lot of other regional outfits who may end up defeating the purpose of this move.

Probably, the biggest challenge that this group posses is to the Congress. Presently the party is ruling in six of the eight states and in each of these legislatures, it has above sixty percent of the seats. In the 2009 polls, the party, on its own won 13 out of the 25 Lok Sabha seats from th North-east. Even its ally in the UPA - the Nationalist Congress Party has a substantial support base here. However, with the formation of the front, the anti-Congress vote will not get split, at least to a big extent, like it used to in the past. In an election wherein the INC is facing issues like anti-incumbency, corruption and inflation, the NERPF is emerging as its main nemesis in the region. With pundits predicting that the Congress may struggle in 2014, losing even a few seats to the opposition will cost the UPA, especially in case of a hung assembly. The NDA and the BJP on the other hand seem to be quite happy with this development. In fact, the presence of the former Punjab CM on the eve of the announcement of this grand alliance is seen as NDA's support to it. BJP's only ally from here is the former Speaker of the Lower House - P A Sangma, whose candidature was supported by the Opposition camp for Presidency. However, his party's disastrous debut in the 2013 Meghalaya elections has proved that he has lost all his influence even in his native Garo Hills. As such, the NDA has no other option but to cos up to the NERPF before the polls. In coming days, it is expected that the Left parties may try to woo this coalition also. Meanwhile, keeping their cards close to their chest, the group has said that it will maintain 'equi-closeness' to both the UPA and the NDA ahead of the big polls.

With the General Elections just about eight months away, there is a lot that the NERPF and its constituents have to do to put on a formidable show. Firstly, many of the parties here have to build their organization at the grass root level and rejuvenate the cadre. Secondly, the Front should work towards getting other important players in the region like the All India United Democratic Front and the Bodoland People's Front into its fold so as to garner more support and votes. Also, seat sharing is expected to get murkier in the coming days and a few parties may even walk out. In an area like the North-east with complex issues, where solving one issue can lead to protests from several other groups, keeping the folk together, both before and after the polls may even become a nightmare. The big question will be how many seats the NERPF win in 2014. At present, it highly unlikely that the alliance will win more than 7 seats. However, to make sure that it has political influence in the process of formation of the next government in New Delhi, it has to win at least 10 to 15 seats in the next Parliament. In the situation where both the UPA and NDA fall short of the magic figure, this group will be one of the most sought after in the post-poll scenario. Whatever be the fate of this confederacy, I hope that the next Union government gives India's North-east the attention that it truly deserves and helps it to march on the path of progress, healing the scars of decades of insurgency and maladministration.