THE SPOILSPORTS

The Bihar elections has been touted as a two horse race between the incumbent CM Nitish Kumar led 'Grand Alliance' on one side and the Narendra Modi led National Democratic Alliance on the other. With most Opinion Polls predicting a neck to neck contest between the two sides, parties are trying hard to retain their 'traditional' vote banks while hoping to break into those of their rivals. From the development card to caste based politics to evoking religious sentiments, outfits are using every issue under the sun to strike a chord with the electorate and win what is turning out to be the most important polls since the last General Elections. However, with the two coalitions grabbing all the headlines, it is easy to overlook the other smaller parties or formations in the fray; while they may not win many seats, they sure can emerge as 'spoilsports' in their strongholds and at the end tilt the results in the favour of one side. Here is a look at the 'not-so-famous' parties or alliances that could play a crucial role in Bihar 2015. 

The Third Front: A golden rule of Indian politics is that 'You should never mess with Mulayum Singh Yadav'; the wrestler turned former CM of Uttar Pradesh is not known to forgive his detractors so easily. The leaders of the Grand Alliance were made aware of this when the SP supremo not only walked out of the Nitish led front but joined hands with the Pappu Yadav's JAM to float a rival coalition that threatens to wean away some votes that would have otherwise gone to the ruling combination. 

The 'Socialist Secular Morcha' as it is being termed is targeting the powerful Muslim - Yadav vote bank which till about a decade ago was the primary support base of Lalu Yadav. There is no doubt that Samajwadi Party (SP) supremo Mulayum is the tallest Yadav leader in the country and he is expected to wield some influence in western parts of Bihar, mainly in the district bordering UP. Besides, the presence of Pappu Yadav's Jan Adikhar Morcha (JAM) will boost the alliance's chances, particularly in his stronghold of Madhepura. The JAM founder certainly has a point to prove; after being expelled out of the RJD, he would want to make Lalu pay for it. In fact, it is believed that several RJD and JD-U leaders who have been denied tickets by their parties are in talks with the controversial politician ahead of the polls. Former Union Minister Nagamani's Samras Samaj Party (SSP), former Lok Sabha Speaker P A Sangma's Nationalist People's Party (NPP) and former Jhanjharpur MP Devendra Prasad Yadav's Samajwadi Janata Dal - Democratic (SJD-D) too are a part of this combination. 

Of course, it has not been all smooth sailing for this alliance. One of its major constituent - the NCP walked out of the Front citing differences with the SP. Ironcially, NCP leader Tariq Anwar was being projected as the Morcha's CM candidate. 

Nationalist Congress Party: The Sharad Pawar led outfit has certainly made a fool of itself in the Bihar assembly elections. In the beginning it was a part of the Nitih led 'Maha ghatbandhan' but walked out of it after it was given just three seats instead of the 12 that it has asked for. Next, it entered into a pre-poll tie up with the SP and was allocated over 40 seats to contest as a constituent of the Third Front. However, days before the second round of voting, the party snapped all ties with the coalition, accusing Mulayum Singh of being hand in glove with the BJP.  

Kathiar MP and party's Muslim face Tariq Anwar speaking to the media said that his outfit will contest 45 seats alone. The NCP will be a strong contender in the six assembly segments of Kathiar district of Bihar and will again eat into the votes of the Nitish - Lalu alliance. The extent of the damage it causes to the 'secular' parties needs to be seen.

The Left Front: Six Communist parties too are fighting the Bihar polls with the aim of providing a 'viable' alternative to the people as per Communist Party of India (CPI) General Secretary Prakash Karat. The other constituents of the alliance include the CPI-ML, the CPM, the RSP, the Forward Block and the Socialist Union of Communist India - Communist (SUCI-C). The coalition is believed to have substantial base Bhojpur and Beguserai regions of the state but it will be crucial to see if this translates into seats.

All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen: It turns out that all the hullabaloo surrounding Owaisi's debut in Bihar turned out to be a dud. Though he had earlier announced plans of contesting on seats from four districts in the Seemanchal region of the state, in a statement made this past week, the AIMIM chief has said that his outfit will only contest from six assembly seats. This move should come as a big relief for the mega coalition since it was believed that Owaisi could end up splitting the Muslim vote which till sometime back was said to be firmly behind Nitish and Lalu.

Shiv Sena: A partner in the government headed by the BJP in Maharashra, the Uddhav Thackeray led outfit's entry into the fray is likely to affect the chances of some NDA candidates in Bihar. The saffron outfit which is regularly in the news for harassing Bihari migrants in Mumbai is hoping to capitalize on disgruntled BJP leaders to help it open its account in the northern state. Though even opening its account will be a big achievement for the Sena, it could play the spoiler for the NDA on some closely fought seats.

Bahujan Samajwadi Party: Though the Mayawati led party once had representatives in the Bihar state assembly, today the BSP's prospects look bleak. The party on its part is contesting all 243 seats but it will take more than a miracle to even win a single seat. As per the plan, the BSP is targeting the Dalit and women voters to do well in the polls.

Jharkhand Mukhti Morcha: The Shibu Soren led JMM has some support base in parts of southern Bihar with significant tribal populations. The former Jharkhand CM will be banking on these votes to spring a surprise and win a few segments.

P.S: Of late, I have not been regularly updating this blog. Apart from work, the other reason is that I have started a new blog - Raajaniti (Link) dedicated to Indian politics. Henceforth, I will put up posts on this topic on both these blogs. 

Also, I would request you to check out the new blog and please provide your valuable feedback.

TELANGANA & LOK SABHA 2014

WHO GAINS AND WHO LOSES OUT IN TELANGANA?

K Chandrashekar Rao on fast-unto-death for Telangana in December 2009

It does not matter if you like it or not. The reality is that after both houses passed the Andhra Pradesh Re-organization Bill, Telangana is all set to become the 29^th state of the Indian Union. A struggle that began about seven decades ago and which was further strengthened by years of neglect has finally succeeded. In spite of protests in Seemandhra and the ruckus inside the Parliament, the government and the Opposition came together in a move dubbed by detractors as 'match-fixing' to allow the contentious bill to pass through. Though Hyderabad is to be the joint capital for the next ten years, the metropolis which is considered to be the pride of the Telugu people and is the bone of contention between the two sides will cease to exist within the territorial extent of Andhra. With the elections both at the Center and in the states, namely Andhra and Telangana due in the next two months, this move will have a direct impact on how the masses vote. Here is a look at the various political parties and how their fortunes will be affected with the division of southern India's largest state. Also with this post, I am starting a new series on the blog where I will analyze each state with respect to the Lok Sabha polls of 2014.

ISSUES

(1) Statehood for Telangana: No prizes for guessing this. The creation of Telangana is of course going to be the sole issue this election season in this part of the country, that is if there are no drastic developments in the run up to the polls. The people of this region have demanded a separate state for decades, citing step-motherly treatment meted out by the rest of Andhra. While Hyderabad, located deep in the heart of this area is one of the most developed cities in the country, the rest of the yet to be born state has lagged far behind. The statehood for Telangana has been a crucial poll subject for long, except for the time when Y S Rajshekar Reddy was the Chief Minister. Considering that hundreds of people have lost their lives over this rather emotional topic, it is going to dominate the political situation here for months, if not years. The challenge for the next government, both in New Delhi and in Hyderabad will be to implement development schemes so as to nurture the state in its early days. 

(2) The TRS-Congress pact: Another key issue which could decide the outcome will be the proposed TRS-Congress merger/pre-poll alliance. Rao's outfit has been at the forefront of the agitation for the past decade whereas the Congress' role in passing of the bill has been appreciated by the people on the ground. As such, if they join hands, they are expected to sweep an overwhelming majority of the seventeen seats from here. The Congress wants Rao's outfit to merge with it, whereas the latter does not want to commit, preferring to keep his options open.

CONTENDERS

(1) Telangana Rashtriya Samiti: The TRS formed by K Chandrashekar Rao in 2004 after he parted ways with Chandrababu Naidu to fight for Telangana statehood is expected to gain heavily from this development. Though it fared badly in the 2009 General elections, KCR's 'fast-unto-death' later that year brought the attention of the entire nation to this issue. The UPA II government buckled under pressure and announced the initiation of the process to bifurcate Andhra, something that it would repent later. There is no doubt that today, KCR is the biggest political leader in the new state. The big question however, is whether he should merge his outfit into the Congress or become a partner in the UPA. It is believed that there was an understanding between the INC and TRS that the latter would merge into the former as and when Telangana is formed. While the Congress has kept its promise, Rao is hesitant to keep his word on the merger. Though it is sure that such an alliance will for sure sweep the newly carved state, KCR's knows that in all likelihood, the UPA will not win a third state term. Moreover, if the NDA crosses the 200 mark and needs allies to stake a claim to form the next government, the TRS could join it (like it did in 2009) and bargain heavily for a special economic package for the state of Telangana. Remember, the BJP's support was crucial in passing the Bill in both Houses of the Parliament.

(2) Congress: In several parts of the soon to be created state, Sonia Gandhi is being referred to as the 'Mother of Telangana' as she has ensured that the UPA kept the promise it had made in 2004, even if the announcement came months prior to the General elections. The grand old party has indeed taken a huge gamble. By giving Telangana it has ruled itself out of the race in 25 seats in Andhra, the state that sent the maximum number of Congress MPs in the last two Lok Sabhas. To be frank, the party did not have a choice. Jaganmohan Reddy has virtually wiped it out of the Rayalseema and Seemanadhra regions whereas the TDP too is expected to improve its performance. The challenge before the Congress is to ensure that the TRS mergers into it. Sadly for it, KCR is a shrewd politician. If he decides to retain his outfit's independence, there is a threat that he may join hands with the BJP led NDA in the future. That would be a disaster and will allow the saffron outfit to make a strong mark in Telangana besides helping it clinch the advantage in the race to 272 in the post poll scenario. Considering the high stakes, one can expect the Congress to lobby hard in the next few days to make sure that Rao fights under its colors.

(3) All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen: In my opinion after the TRS and the Congress, the third party which will be affected by the creation of the new state is the AIMIM. The party has been representing the Hyderabad seat in the Lok Sabha since 1984 largely due to its loyal Muslim vote bank. However, post the recent developments, the two time MP and party president Asaduddin Owaisi may be feeling a bit jittery. In case the Telangana sentiments are high, the voters may rise above communal lines and may end up overlooking the AIMIM. However, Modi's nomination for the post of the Prime Minister by the NDA will be one issue which Owaisi may raise to whip up religious sentiments and consolidate the minority votes.

(4) BJP: The saffron party's situation in southern India continues to be pathetic, more so after its rout in Karnataka assembly polls. However, in a bid to give itself a better chance at least in Telangana, the party backed the bill introduced by the Congress in the Parliament, hoping to create some momentum in its favor. Like Sonia Gandhi, Sushma Swaraj too has won the good will of the people from this part of the country. Giving her a ticket from her will be a bold move and may well pay off. At least, she should figure prominently in the BJP's election campaign here. On the issue of the merger of the TRS into the Congress, the party will be keeping its fingers crossed. Also, in case the deal fails, the party will look at Rao as a potential ally in the future and may lure him with a special economic package for the new state.

The Telugu Desum Party (TDP) and the YSR Congress are expected to draw a blank here in case they contest as they batted for the 'United Andhra' movement. The Communist and other constituents of the Third Front too do not have any substantial presence here which means they too will not open their accounts.

PAST RESULTS

Here is a look at how the 17 seats that will form a part of Telangana have voted in the last five Lok Sabha polls. Please note that during these elections, the region was still a part of Andhra Pradesh. Also, over the years, the delimitation exercise has made it difficult to get accurate results in all constituencies. In 1996, the Congress held a slight upper hand in the region whereas in the next election it was the TDP that did well. The allies in the NDA i.e. Telugu Desum and the BJP swept the region in spite of the fact that they did not have a pre-poll arrangement. YSR's campaigning and the alliance with the TRS helped the UPA do well across Andhra in 2004 and Telangana was no exception. The superlative performance in the state catapulted the Congress beyond 150 and helped them to a surprise victory at the Center. In 2009, in spite of the break-up with KCR, the Congress led by Rajashekar Reddy routed all Opposition in the state. A hallmark of this victory was that KCR's outfit was reduced to a paltry number of two even as the Congress went past 200, again with Andhra contributing the maximum number of MPs to UPA II.

No.	Constituency	2009	2004	1999	1998	1996
01	Adilabad	TDP	TRS	TDP	TDP	TDP
02	Peddapalli	INC	INC	TDP	TDP	INC
03	Karimnagar	INC	TRS	BJP	BJP	INC
04	Nizamabad	INC	INC	TDP	TDP	INC
05	Zahirabad	INC	-	-	-	-
06	Medak	TRS	TRS	BJP	INC	INC
07	Malkajgiri	INC	-	-	-	-
08	Secunderabad	INC	INC	BJP	BJP	INC
09	Hyderabad	AIMIM	AIMIM	AIMIM	AIMIM	AIMIM
10	Chevella	INC	-	-	-	-
11	Mahabubnagar	TRS	INC	BJP	JD	INC
12	Nagarkurnool	INC	TDP	TDP	INC	TDP
13	Nalgonda	INC	CPI	TDP	CPI	CPI
14	Bhongir	INC	-	-	-	-
15	Warangal	INC	TRS	TDP	TDP	TDP
16	Mahabubabad	INC	-	-	-	-
17	Khamman	TDP	INC	INC	INC	CPM

(1) Information on the results of the five constituencies - Zahirabad, Malkajgiri, Chevella, Bhongir and Mahabubabad are not availabale on the Internet.

(2) CPI: Communist Party of India
CPM: Communist Party of India (Marxist)
JD: Janata Dal

MY PREDICTIONS

I am sticking my neck out to make some predictions ahead of the General Elections. Of course, the point to note here is that I have not taken the INC-TRS merger or pre-poll alliance into account since it has not been announced as yet. As mentioned earlier, Chandrashekar Rao and the TRS may well take about half of the seats from the new state whereas the Congress too may do well. I expect the BJP to end its drought here and the AIMIM to retain its stronghold of Hyderabad. Note, I have just relied on my understanding and my gut feeling to come to these numbers.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS)	6-10
2	Congress (INC)	4-8
3	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	0-2
4	All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM)	0-1
5	Others (YSR Congress/TDP/CPI/CPM)	0-1

WATCH OUT

(1) Rise of the Rao Dynasty: It will be interesting to see whether Chandrashekar Rao contests a Lok Sabha seat or prefers to fight the elections to the state assembly, hoping to become the first CM of the state for which he went without food for over 10 days. In that case, it is pretty likely that his son K T Rama Rao, the MLA from Sircilla may lead the party in the Parliament. His daughter, K Kavita who had courted arrest several times during the T agitations is likely to jump into the electoral fray this year. His nephew Harish is the MLA from Siddipet. Though there are various speculations over the future of the TRS, what is clear is that the Raos are set to become the first family of Telangana. 

(2) The future of the TRS: Will he or won't he merge into the Congress? This is the question that is dominating all political discussions in the region. It is believed that most of the leaders in the TRS are against merging the party into the Congress. Even KCR would like to retain his party's identity, aware that he will be made to dance to the High Command's tune in case he joins the INC. Besides, staying independent leaves the option of allying with the NDA in the future open. Considering that his party does not have strong presence in most parts of the soon to be formed state, Rao knows that he may need the help of the grand old party to form a government in Hyderabad. Resisting the Congress in such a situation will be extremely difficult. On the other hand, merging into the Congress may lead to a vertical split int the outfit, with many leaders opting out.

(3) The future of the BJP in Telangana: Much like the Congress, the BJP took a gamble by supporting the T Bill in the Parliament. While the Congress was looking at and may even get some immediate gains in 2014, for the the saffron outfit, it is a long term investment. By lending its support to the creation of the new state, the party has given itself a strong platform which it can use to garner votes. Though the it may not win even a single seat here in this General Elections, do not be surprised if it does open its account in the new legislative assembly. Secondly, the BJP will be closely watching the developments regarding the merger of the TRS into the Congress. If the merger happens, many in the TRS may jump the boat and the only viable option for them will be the BJP. In case, the deal falls through, Modi may woo Rao with a multi-crore package for Telangana.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)