NAGALAND & LOK SABHA 2014

WILL THE NPF CLAIM A HAT-TRICK? 

The results of the state elections held in the North-Eastern state of Nagaland threw up an interesting result. The ruling NPF under Neiphiu Rio won a rather comfortable victory as it ended up increasing its tally by 11 seats to finish with a staggering tally of 37 (Link). While it was still not a sweep, the thing to note was that the Congress, the principal Opposition in the state assembly was decimated. An year down the line as the state gears up to elect one representative to the Lok Sabha, the NPF seems to have the edge. The regional party has won the lone MP seat twice in a row and many are expecting the trend to continue this time around too. The popularity of the incumbent CM still remains high and the massive margin of his victory in February 2013 only re-affirms this. Besides this, as many as seven parties, including the BJP have pledged their support to the candidature of Rio, further boosting his chances.

ISSUES

(1) Political Scenario in the State: In the 60 member state assembly, CM Rio enjoys the backing of about 50 MLAs, including the 37 members belonging to the NPF. After claiming a hat-trick in Kohima, the NPF is expected to repeat this feat even in the General Elections too. While Rio is talking about the work that has happened here in the last 11 years, the Congress has come up with a booklet highlighting the failures of the DAN regime over the last decade. Accusing Rio and his cabinet of indulging in rampant corruption, the INC is hoping that anti-incumbency will work in its favor.

(2) Caught between the Devil and the Deep Sea: The people of Nagaland have to choose between the two major coalitions in the country today - the UPA and the NDA. The UPA regime in its last term has failed on multiple accounts. It has become synonymous with scams, price rise and high inflation. However, voting for NDA won't be easy, especially with Narendra Modi as its PM nominee. Nearly 90 percent of the people here are Christians. Considering the apprehensions that minorities have against the Gujarat CM, there are chances that some may prefer casting their vote for Congress.

(3) Greater Nagaland: This is one emotive issue that politicians in Nagaland raise prior to any election. For long, the people here have demanded the establishment of a new state in the North-East encompassing of Naga dominated areas. On the other hand, several other neighboring states have opposed this since it would compromise its territorial extent. Besides, there is an underground movement spearheaded by terror organizations like the NSCM-K and NSCM-IM. While terror related violence may reduced significantly over the last few years, the issue finds a mention in rallies of both, the NPF and the Congress.

CONTENDERS

(1) The Nagaland People's Front (NPF): The incumbent CM - Neiphiu Rio is the official candidate of the Democratic Alliance of Nagaland (DAN). He is the only Chief Minister apart from Narendra Modi who has filed his nominations for elections to the Lower House in 2014. After ruling the state for eleven years, the sixty-four year old veteran wants a bigger role for himself on the national stage. Off late, Rio seems to be taking a keen interest in the General Polls. Remember, he was instrumental in the formation of the North-East Regional Front (Link) late last year. Moreover, on the campaign trial, he has said that the only way to develop the state and the region is to be a part of the Union government. The regional party has already pledged its support to the Modi led NDA at the Centre, hailing former PM Vajpayee for his work in the North-East. Seven other parties in the state including the BJP, the JD(U), the NCP and four other minor parties.

(2) Congress: The odds are stacked heavily against the primary opposition party in the state. Already infested with in-fighting amongst its state leaders, the grand old party is facing a tough candidate in Rio. Also with the backing of seven other outfits, the NPF seems poised to win big this time around. The INC has nominated senior state leader K V Pusa to take on the serving CM. Pusa had won the state assembly elections four times in a row before losing in 2013.

PAST PERFORMANCES

The Congress was the winner between 1996 and 1999 from the single parliamentary seat here. On the other hand, the NPF has emerged victorious on the last two occasions.

Political Party	2009	2004	1999	1998	1996
Nagaland People's Front (NPF)	1	1	-	-	-
Congress (INC)	-	-	1	1	1

MY PREDICTIONS

After recording a spectacular victory in February last year, I expect the NPF to continue its domination of state politics.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	Nagaland People's Front (NPF)	1
2	Congress (INC)	0

WATCH OUT

(1) What if Rio wins? Now there will be an interesting situation in case Rio wins the parliamentary seat from here. He has been already talking about a national role for himself and will fight for a ministerial berth in case the NDA, which he is a part of at the moment, comes to power.In fact, even if the UPA wins a third term, the incumbent CM should not have any problems supporting it. After all, the NPF was giving outside support to the Manmohan regime in the last Lok Sabha. If Rio does shift his base to New Delhi, the state is all set to get a new Chief Minister. On the other hand if he decides to stay back in Kohima, then a re-election to the parliamentary seat will be necessitated.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

THE NORTH-EASTERN CONFEDERACY

THE NEW ALLIANCE ON THE BLOCK

Source: Wikipedia

Just ahead of the 2014 General Elections, a group of parties from the North-east have come together to form the North East Regional Political Front (NERPF) with the novel aim of 'safeguarding the interest of the people of the region'. Earlier this week, representatives from 11 regional outfits came together in Guwahati to announce this new alliance which is expected to be a significant player in the run up to the big polls. While former CM of Assam and AGP chief Prafulla Kumar Mahanta was appointed as the chief adviser of this new front, other advisers include Paban Kumar Chamling - the Chief Minister of Sikkim, former CMs Donkupar Roy of Meghalaya and Joram Thanga of Mizoram. Serving Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio of the NPP who won a second consecutive term earlier this year beating the Congress was named as the chief convener of the NERPF. The leaders of  the new coalition which includes the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), the Naga People's Front (NPF), the United Democratic Party (UDP), the Hill State People's Democratic Party (HSPDP), the Manipur People's Party (MPP), the Manipur State Congress Party (MSCP), the Manipur People's Democratic Front (MPDP), the Mizo National Party (MNP), the People's Party of Arunachal (PPA) , the Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF) and the Indigenous People's Front of Twipra (IPFT) has left its doors open for other regional players to join them. In fact, this news has created a flutter in political circles. Former Punjab CM Surjit Singh Barnawala of the Akali Dal was present on the occasion to express his support and even TDP chief Chandra Babu Naidu is said to be in touch with its leaders.

The NERPF seems to be making the right kind of noise at least for the time being. Belonging to a part of the country that has largely been ignored by the political establishment in New Delhi, the front has taken the cause of the North east, promising to work for the region that has never got its due, either politically or economically. It has been critical of China's claims over the state Arunachal, asking for measures against Chinese incursion into Indian territory. Battered by years of neglect and insurgency, the region lags behind the rest of the country in terms of development. The NERPF has called for Beijing to stop work on all dams in the upper stages of the Brahmaputra which is the lifeline of the region, with immediate effect. On similar lines, it has taken a strong stand against Bangladesh, asking the government not to go ahead with the proposed the enclave swapping deal with our eastern neighbor. Besides, it has called for the deportation of illegal migrants who have crossed over to our side. The alliance has asked the Centre to withdraw the Arms Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) - an emotive issue, especially in the troubled state of Manipur, from all of the North-east. Like all regional players, it has promised to provide reservation in Central government jobs for the people of the region, the rebuilding of the Slitwell Road and implementation of the Look East policy which seems to have lost its steam over the years. Lastly, the NERPF has asked for the scrapping of the Concurrent list and transferring all the subjects in it to the State List - the eternal dream of all federalists. 

While the leaders may claim to be working in the interests of the region, there is more to it than than just that. In spite of all the hype over the Third Front, the reality on the ground is that regional parties in the smaller states, except for the Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab, the SDF in Sikkim and the NPF in Nagaland are in the decline. In the North-east, these outfits are losing ground to the Congress which has made the region one of its strong holds across the nation. The party under the leadership of Tarun Gogoi won a third straight term in 2011 assembly elections, winning 79 of the 126 seats as the AGP was reduced to single digit. In alliance with the BJP, the party won a single seat in the 2009 Lok Sabha. Earlier this year, the HSPDP and the UDP could only win 12 seats in total in Meghalaya as the IPFT drew a blank in Tripura where the Red fever was on a high. The MNP has just 5 MLAs in the Mizoram legislature, as opposed to the ruling INC which won 32 seats on its own; the PPA has only 4 seats in Arunachal and the MSCP has 5 MLAs in Manipur. Considering the dismal state that majority of the constituents find themselves in, the move will send across the right message to the electorate while helping to consolidate the anti-Congress votes. In a place like north-eastern India where the political space is fragmented amongst smaller parties, all catering to a section of the society, the united front will give a big boost to the regional players who are keen to win back their lost space. However, other than the Congress, the North-East Front will have to fight out with a lot of other regional outfits who may end up defeating the purpose of this move.

Probably, the biggest challenge that this group posses is to the Congress. Presently the party is ruling in six of the eight states and in each of these legislatures, it has above sixty percent of the seats. In the 2009 polls, the party, on its own won 13 out of the 25 Lok Sabha seats from th North-east. Even its ally in the UPA - the Nationalist Congress Party has a substantial support base here. However, with the formation of the front, the anti-Congress vote will not get split, at least to a big extent, like it used to in the past. In an election wherein the INC is facing issues like anti-incumbency, corruption and inflation, the NERPF is emerging as its main nemesis in the region. With pundits predicting that the Congress may struggle in 2014, losing even a few seats to the opposition will cost the UPA, especially in case of a hung assembly. The NDA and the BJP on the other hand seem to be quite happy with this development. In fact, the presence of the former Punjab CM on the eve of the announcement of this grand alliance is seen as NDA's support to it. BJP's only ally from here is the former Speaker of the Lower House - P A Sangma, whose candidature was supported by the Opposition camp for Presidency. However, his party's disastrous debut in the 2013 Meghalaya elections has proved that he has lost all his influence even in his native Garo Hills. As such, the NDA has no other option but to cos up to the NERPF before the polls. In coming days, it is expected that the Left parties may try to woo this coalition also. Meanwhile, keeping their cards close to their chest, the group has said that it will maintain 'equi-closeness' to both the UPA and the NDA ahead of the big polls.

With the General Elections just about eight months away, there is a lot that the NERPF and its constituents have to do to put on a formidable show. Firstly, many of the parties here have to build their organization at the grass root level and rejuvenate the cadre. Secondly, the Front should work towards getting other important players in the region like the All India United Democratic Front and the Bodoland People's Front into its fold so as to garner more support and votes. Also, seat sharing is expected to get murkier in the coming days and a few parties may even walk out. In an area like the North-east with complex issues, where solving one issue can lead to protests from several other groups, keeping the folk together, both before and after the polls may even become a nightmare. The big question will be how many seats the NERPF win in 2014. At present, it highly unlikely that the alliance will win more than 7 seats. However, to make sure that it has political influence in the process of formation of the next government in New Delhi, it has to win at least 10 to 15 seats in the next Parliament. In the situation where both the UPA and NDA fall short of the magic figure, this group will be one of the most sought after in the post-poll scenario. Whatever be the fate of this confederacy, I hope that the next Union government gives India's North-east the attention that it truly deserves and helps it to march on the path of progress, healing the scars of decades of insurgency and maladministration.

READING BETWEEN THE LINES

KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM ROUND ONE OF ASSEMBLY POLLS - 2013

Assembly Polls 2013: The Winners

With the three north eastern states that went to the polls in the early part of the year re-electing their incumbent Chief Ministers to power, the phase one of the state elections that will be held throughout 2013 came to an eventful end. While each of these had one clear winner, past experiences and a little common sense will tell us that there is certainly more to our politics than simply crossing the majority mark or forming the government. Political parties are trying hard to read between the lines, analyzing the verdict from various angles and finding issues that resonate with the people so as to chalk out effective strategies ahead of the upcoming Vidhan Soudha mandate in other states, while keeping the big daddy of them all - Lok Sabha 2014 firmly in focus. Though we cannot generalize the findings that have come out of Agartala, Shillong or Kohima with other parts of the country considering the maze that our Rajneeti is, some of the trends seen here will be of interest to both - the politicians as well as the analysts who closely track the electoral process and developments in the world's largest democracy. In my opinion, the biggest highlights which have come out of the recently concluded polls in the north eastern region are as follows:-

(1) High Voting Percentage - Jago re, Jago re, Jagooo re: Voting is certainly the most important right that the Constitution guarantees us. In the past though, we Indians have taken this privilege for granted, preferring to take the day off rather than waiting in queues in front of the election booths. However, ever since the turn of the new millennium, there has been a steady increase in

Courtesy: IBN Live

the voting percentage in most polls, right from the Panchayat level to General elections. Be it due to the sustained efforts of the Election Commission or because the electorate is becoming aware of its responsibilities, the participation of more people in these processes is a positive sign and will go a long way in strengthening our democratic credentials. In fact, electoral history was created this time around in Tripura as 93.57 percent of all registered voters cast the ballot - the highest ever since independent India's first elections in 1952. While the voting percentage in the other two states fell slightly as compared to the last assembly polls, the people in Meghalaya must be given credit for the manner in which they defied the bandh called by the extremist organization - the Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council and came out in such large numbers to make their opinions matter, reaffirming their faith in our democracy, in spite of all its flaws. Even in 2012, the polling percentage in all seven states was well above the national average. The high voter turnout is a clear indication of the fact that masses have realized every vote matters and by not voting they are helping undeserving candidates win.

(2) Anti-incumbency..... Whats that? In the years following the Emergency of 1977-78, anti-incumbency was probably, the most issue in Indian elections. In fact, except for the Left in its bastions of Bengal and Tripura, the BJP in Gujarat and the Congress in few of the north eastern provinces, fortunes of political parties in most states would change every five years. Though the BJP tried to suppress it by raising the 'feel good factor' slogan ahead of the 2004 Lok Sabha and ended up paying a heavy price, the UPA managed to win a second consecutive term. Likewise, Manik Sarkar's 'Mr Clean' image and the steps his government took to establish peace by combating extremism won him a straight forth term, saving the last fortress of the communists in the country. In Meghalaya, a state renowned for its 'Aaya Ram - Gaya Ram' politics, the vote was for stability as Mukul Roy took the Congress extremely close to the majority on its own. The numerous corruption allegations against the Rio government could not prevent the NPF from retaining power single-handedly as the Naga issue struck a chord with the electorate. Last year, while Parkash Singh Badal become the first CM in over four decades to be elected for two straight terms in Punjab, Gujarat CM Narendra Modi routed the Congress in his backyard. Meanwhile, Ikram Ibobi Singh won a third term for the INC in Manipur. The writing on the wall is clear. The public will not hesitate to vote for their sitting MLAs again, if and only if they either have an excellent report card at the end of their term or seem to have credibility to deliver on their issues that concern the aam admi. No wonder then that development, stability or even some regional sentiments can undo any damage that anti-incumbency can cause.

(3) The Left survives the lithmus test: Many analysts believed that the Tripura elections could well be the last nail in the coffin of the Communists in India if the grand coalition of the INC had managed to storm the Agartala assembly. In retrospection, one will realize that the political stars of the Red brigade took a downward turn since they pulled out support to the UPA in 2008 over the Indo-US nuclear deal. In the 2009 General elections, the Left dropped 35 seats to finish at a mere 24 and the Third Front failed

Courtesy: CPI(M)

to pose any challenge to the Congress led alliance, rendering it insignificant in the Parliament. In 2011, the Congress extracted revenge over their former buddies for the 2008 fiasco as it trounced the Marxists by four seats in a closely fought contest to win Kerala. The biggest shock though came from Bengal as Didi capitalized on the agitations in Singur and Nandigram to full fill her life long dream of coming to power in Kolkata. No wonder than that all eyes were on Tripura as three time CM Manik Sarkar led the Left Front in the battle for its last stronghold in the country. All thanks to in fighting amongst Congress leaders, the persona of Sarkar and the development work carried out by the previous regimes, the ruling alliance won a decisive victory, walking away with 50 of the 60 seats inspite of failing to deliver on issues like poverty and unemployment. While the mandate was more like an endorsement for the Sarkar government than for the Marxist ideology, the politiburo is hopeful that such an amazing performance will rejuvenate the cadre and boost its prospects in the 2014 so that it emerges as a key player on the national stage, once again.

(4) Mixed Bag for the Congress: With the Congress ruling over five of the eight north eastern states, the round one of the assembly polls 2013 was an excellent opportunity for the party to further make inroads into the region, especially because two of the states - Tripura and Nagaland which had been under its political rivals for a long time were up for grabs. With Baba's 'Mission 2014' in mind, the party got its entire top brass - the trioka of Manmohan Singh, Sonia and Rahul Gandhi to campaign here.

Courtesy: Shillong Times

However, it failed to do the ground work properly, something that the crown prince had stressed in his list of imperatives for revival. Deep rooted factionalism between leaders and faulty distribution of tickets were the prime reason for the pathetic performance of the INC and its allies in the Tripura polls. While it is true that nothing could bring down the Sarkar Raj in Agartala, the high command will certainly not be pleased by way things went for the party. Though failing to do well in Tripura is a cause of concern, there is no justification whatsoever for the disastrous numbers that the outfit got in Nagaland where it finished with just 8 seats. There is an urgent need for it to do some serious introspection so as to find out the reasons for its failure to even cross the two digit mark considering the various corruption scandals that the Rio government was embodied in. Nonetheless, Mukul Sangma emerged as the poster boy for the party as he prevented a white wash by almost winning Meghalaya on his own in spite of the various contenders in the fray. As the north eastern region which contributes a total of 25 seats to the Lok Sabha has largely been a stronghold of the Congress in the past, the party needs to make additional efforts to reach out to the people in a bid to address their concerns so as to strengthen its position prior to the big mandate.

(5) Another flop show for the BJP: After dropping the tainted Nitin Gadkari following a last minute coup by its top leaders in what has been seen as an effort to break free from the shackles of the RSS, the saffron outfit was hoping that the new President Rajnath Singh would steer it back to the top. Singh showed aggression, trying to mix the Hindutva agenda with development, hoping that its ideology will become more relevant to the youth while preserving its traditional vote bank. The most important part of this strategy was to expand the BJP beyond the Hindi heartland, taking it to hitherto unknown lands and make it a formidable power across the nation. As such, Singh took an active part in the campaign, visiting these poll bound states with other national leaders and even opening channels of communication with regional players. However, in spite of all the efforts that the former UP CM put in, the party managed to get just one seat which is embarrassing to say the least. The lone seat that it won out of the 11 it contested in Nagaland came from the Tijit constituency. Sadly, it even failed to open its account in Meghalaya and Tripura. The question staring the party is whether it can afford to think of ruling the country without a significant presence in several parts. The outfit which came into the national scene after the demolition of the Babri Masjid is virtually non-existent in Bengal, most of the north eastern states and down south. In Uttar Pradesh its influence has waned and in states like Bihar and Punjab, it plays second fiddle to other stronger partners. It is but clear that Rajnath needs to focus on building the BJP in these regions rather than simply going there just before elections or else it will never become a national party in true sense.

(6) Endgame Sangma? When Garo strongman Purno Sangma joined the National People's Party (NPP) after failing in his bid to become the thirteenth President of India, the conception, atleast in the media was that he would have a big impact on the election results in his home state of Meghalaya. The exodus of top leaders from his previous party - the NCP including his two sons into the NPP further strengthened this claim. However, the results were a shocker to Purno and his supporters. As the

Courtesy: Frontline

Congress under one Mukul Sangma inched close to majority on its own, the NPP had a disastrous debut with only two of its candidates making it to the legislative assembly, much lower than the 10 odd seats which the pundits had predicted. The Congress won 12 of the 25 seats in the Garo region - the home turf of the seasoned politician. This is significant because the NPP chief has represented this part of the country in the Lok Sabha on multiple occasions before his daughter Agatha was elected from here in 2009. Shockingly, his younger son Conrad who is a former state minister and Leader of Opposition was beaten by Clement Marak of the INC in Selsella constituency. The only consolation for the tribal leader was that his eldest son James won from Daddenggire. Many believe that the 2013 Meghalaya polls might well have sounded the end of the political career of P A Sangma, who arguably, is the most famous politician from the North east. However, it is too early to write off the NPP chief, specially because he has seen several storms (and parties of course) in his political career spanning over four decades. With the General elections just an year away, the senior Sangma will get one last opportunity to make a comeback. Meanwhile, his children - James, Conrad and Agatha are young and should work hard to live upto the legacy of their illustrious father. On the other hand, with his brother Zenith and wife Dikkanchi Shira also giving him company in the Megahalaya Vidhan Soudha, CM Mukul Sangma's family has emerged as the new first family of the state politics, atleast for the time being.

For more on the 2014 General Elections

(1) The Fall of the Triumvirate (Link)

(2) The Double Edged Sword (Link)

(3) An Ally in Need is an Ally Indeed (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Coutesy: IBN Live
Source: Northeast election; polling underway in Meghalaya, Nagaland; high turnout expected (Link)

(2) Coutesy: CPI(M) (Link)

(3) Coutesy: Shillong Times
Source: NCP locks horns with Mukul over subsidiary fiasco(Link)

(4) Coutesy: Frontline
Source: Assembly Elections: North eastern round (Link)