IN DIRE STRAITS

THE AGP MAY DRAW A BLANK IN THE 2014 POLLS

Courtesy: Asom Gana Parishad

Formed in the 1980s after years of peaceful protests against the settling of illegal Bangladeshi immigrants in Assam, the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) was once, the most powerful political party in north eastern state. Under the leadership of the young and dynamic student leader Prafulla Kumar Mahanta, it swept the 1986 state assembly polls winning a whopping 67 of the 126 seats; Mahanta created history as he was sworn in as the youngest Chief Minister in the country's political history at that time. Although the Congress managed to come back to power in the early 90s, the AGP again emerged as the largest party in the 1996 polls. That would be the last time that the regional outfit would be in power in Dispur. In 2001, the INC under Tarun Gogoi comfortably crossed the half way. Thanks to differences between top leader, allegations of corruption against Mahanta and his alleged role in the cold blooded murder of relatives of several ULFA terrorists, the AGP's tally went down to 26 seats that year. The party has, in fact never been able to replicate its early success and won a meagre 10 seats in the last assembly polls. In the General Elections too, its performance has been no better. A part of the several Third Front governments in the 1990s, it managed to win just one seat in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls which it fought as a constituent of the NDA. The crossing over of its senior leaders to the BJP in the last two years, the rise of newer rivals and its continued failure in its electoral campaigns in the state has put a question on the party's very existence. With many, predicting the AGP to draw a blank in 2014, the question arises as to whether it is still a relevant player in the state politics, forget the national scene.

Probably, the biggest reason that the AGP finds itself in such a big mess today is that it is it has not been able to change its ideology with times. Like other regional parties in different parts of the country - the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) in Goa and the Uttarakhand Kranti Dal (UKD) in Uttarakhand which were formed after mass agitations, the Gana Parishad has never 'refined' its ideology to stay relevant. As such, it has not been able to attract the youth, especially those born post the Assam Movement. Secondly, the party does not have effective leadership. While the Congress under Gogoi has consistently moved from strength to strength, Mahanta's popularity has seen several ups and downs over the years. Besides, the allegations of corruption and his 'indictment' in the Sakia commission's report on the secret killings of ULFA sympathizers levied against Prafulla Kumar has tarnished his image. Another big factor for the party's woes has been deep rooted factionalism in its rank. In fact, the regional party was itself formed by the amalgamation of several groups fighting for the Assamese cause way back in October 1985. In 1991, several top leaders left the outfit to form the Natun Asom Gana Parishad (NAGP) only to join back an year later. In 2005, the regional outfit expelled its own leader Mahanta for indulging in anti-party activities. However on 14th October 2008, exactly 22 years after the AGP was formed, all of its splinter groups including Mahanta's Asom Gana Parishad (Progressive), Atul Bora's Trinamool Gana Parishad and Pabindra Deka's Purbanchaliya Loka Parishad came back to renew the party and fight the Congress at Golaghat. The unity though was short lived as youth leader Sarbananda Sonorwal joined the BJP three years later. Lastly, the rise of other sub-regional players like the All India United Democratic Party (AIUDF) and the Bodoland People's Front (BPF) has further weakened the AGP. These parties have solid vote bank which is unlike to switch loyalties over to the Gana Parishad any time in the near future.

Even before the 2014 polls, the party's positions has remained weak and its future looks bleak. Earlier, the party had joined hand with several other regional parties in the region to form the North East Regional Political Front (Link). However, not much development has happened in that regard ever since its inception, prompting many to ask whether the 'alliance' exists anymore or not. Meanwhile, its only MP - Joseph Toppo had resigned after there were indications that the AGP would not renominate him from the Tezpur parliamentary seat. He was later placated and given the party's ticket. In fact, one has to keep in mind that it was the split in the Muslim votes in 2009 between the Congress and the AIUDF that helped the AGP win the seat. Also, at that time, the outfit had fought the elections as a part of the NDA. However this time around, it has decided to go all alone. In another jolt to the party, two of its senior leaders - former president Chandra Mohan Patowary and former minister Hitendra Nath Goswami switched allegiance to the saffron camp. The Assamese outfit was conspicuous by its absence at the launching of the Third Front, after initially hobnobbing with the Left (Link). Well, there is absolutely nothing to indicate that the AGP will perform will well. Most Opinion polls show that the Congress will continue to dominate state politics here in 2014 too while the AGP may even fail to open its account. In fact I would not be surprised if, like in 2004, it fails to win any seats (Link). A bad performance will spell doom; more defections can be expected and the AGP may slip to single digits in 2016 state polls.

	Constituency	AGP Candidate	2009 Winner
1	Kokrajhar		BPF
2	Dhubri		AIUDF
3	Barpeta		Congress
4	Gauhati	Birendra Prasad Baishya	BJP
5	Mangaldoi		BJP
6	Tezpur	Joseph Toppo	AGP
7	Nowgong	Mridula Barkakoty	BJP
8	Kaliabor	Dr Arun Sarma	BJP
9	Autonomous District	Will Support HSDP	Congress
10	Silchar		Congress
11	Karimganj		Congress
12	Lakhimpur	Hariprasad Dihingia	Congress
13	Jorhat	Pradip Hazarika	Congress
14	Dibrugarh	Anup Phukan	Congress

THE BATTLE OF THE NAIKS

SHRIPAD vs RAVI FOR NORTH GOA

The Bhandari Samaj is Goa's biggest caste in terms of numbers, constituting about 20 percent of the state's population. Come April 12, the North Goa seat is all set to witness a big clash amongst the two tallest leaders from the community. The seat is presently held by former Union Minister Shripad Naik, who has won from here continuously since the 1999 General Elections. Meanwhile, with the local Congress unit clearing the name of former Goa CM Ravi Naik to contest from this seat, the two backward caste leaders are set to fight against each other for the third time in political history of the state. I have stayed in this constituency for eight long years (four years in Panjim and another four in Porvorim) and hence have been following the political developments here for long. There is enough to indicate that the fight for Panjim is going to be the most keenly fought in this part of the country (Link).

A former member of the state legislature, Shripad Naik first contested from North Goa in 1999 Lok Sabha polls. As the party romped home to power in New Delhi, Shripad won a handsome victory, beating his closest rival and former Union Law Minister Ramakant Khalap of the INC by over 80,000 votes. In the Vajpayee cabinet, he held various portfolios as a junior minister. In the next big polls, even as the BJP fell out of favor across the country, Naik still won his seat. In 2009, even as the Congress consolidated its position and crossed the 200 mark, the North Goa seat still went to the saffron outfit. However, the margin was wafer thin. He just scrapped through, winning about six thousands votes more than his nearest rival NCP's Jitendra Deshprabhu. What works for Shripad Naik is his clean image. After having been in the murky politics for Goa for nearly three decades, no allegations of corruption or wrong-doing were ever raised against him. The second and perhaps the biggest plus point for Shripad is the fact that he has never switched parties. In a state like Goa where it is common for politicians to hop from one party to another, he is perhaps one of the few who have stood loyal to the BJP. One threat to saffron leader though is anti-incumbency. After electing BJP for 15 long years, you should not be surprised if North Goans chose the Congress this time around. Another factor that could damage his prospects could be the alleged differences between him and CM Manohar Parrikar. During the 2012 state polls (Link), Shripad who was said to be keen to contest from Porvorim was initially denied a ticket as he could be a potential competitor to the IITian post elections. Though he was offered a ticket later after his public outburst, the North Goa MP declined to contest. A split in the saffron ranks could prove suicidal for its prospcts here, especially with Ravi in the fray.

Ravi Naik, or the politics he does in many ways epitomizes the politics of the beach state, a state that has seen over 20 Chief Ministers in less than three decades. Hailing from the temple town of Ponda in central Goa, Ravi who is more known for his 'not so holy' activities. He began his career with the MGP. A legislator in the state assembly, he shot to prominence when he along with five other MGP MLAs joined the Congress in 1991. For this act, Ravi was made the Chief Minister and continued in the post till 1993. In June 1993, he became the first CM to be disqualified under the new Anti-Defection Law. He got another shot at the top job in 1994 but remained in the office for just seven days. Admist the chaos that Goa saw in the late nineties, he shifted his base to the Centre, winning on a Congress ticket from North Goa. In 2000, he walked into the BJP, serving as the Home Minister under Manohar Parrikar. However, he returned back to the Congress before the 2002 polls and won from Ponda for two consecutive terms. However, in 2012, after the BJP and MGP entered into a pre-poll alliance, former police officer Lavoo Mamledar defeated him by a margin of over 3000 votes. Ravi’s son Ritesh who contested against MGP heavyweight Sudhin Dhavalikar from Marcaim too was also routed.

In many ways, Ravi and Shripad complement each other. While the latter has stuck with the saffron brigade ever since he made his debut, the former has hopped from MGP to Congress to BJP and is back with the INC. Also, the former CM has a ‘tainted’ image amongst the people of the state. He is known to be power-hungry and his name has figured in several scams. Most notably, a Swedish model has accused him and his son of being involved in the drug trade. However, there are some things that work to his advantage. His humble origins and his amazing rise with in the state politics have won him many admirers, especially within his own community. The Muslims too have continuously backed him. Besides, with the Congress pushed to the walls in the state assembly polls after the drubbing that they got, it is expected that the INC leaders would unite and firmly support Ravi.

While their war to become the dominant leader of the Bhandari community in Goa has gone on for over two decades, the two Naiks have fought each other in politics on two different occasions. In 1994, Shripad Naik was the candidate of the BJP-MGP coalition in the state from the constituency of Marcaim. He was up against Ravi who had joined the Congress recently. Although Ravi was the incumbent Chief Minister of the state, the other Naik had the last laugh as he won by a handsome margin of 2700 votes. In 2002, the two were again locked in a political fight, this time from Ravi's stronghold of Ponda. Ravi had left the BJP and rejoined the INC once again. In a bid to teach him a lesson, the saffron party asked serving North Goa MP Shripad to contest against him and replicate the success of 1994. While much of the background between 1994 and 2002 was same, there was one major difference. This time around, the MGP was not in any kind of agreement with the BJP. The split in votes helped Ravi take revenge as he trounced the BJP leader by over 1000 votes. The upcoming polls for the 2014 Lok Sabha will be the third installation of this political rivalry with scores at present being one each.

There are a host of issues which will decide who wins the North Goa seat, this time around. The numerous scams and economic slump will hurt the INC whereas local topics like the ban on mining and Parrikar government's flip flops on the Medium of Instructions at the primary level are said to go against the BJP. In this contest which one can expect to go down to the wire, it could be the regional parties who will influence the final outcome. Getting the support of the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) would be a big boost for Shripad. Remember, he lost to the former CM when his party was not in alliance with the MGP in 2002. The Congress on the other hand will need the help of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) to put on a good show. However, convincing Pawar's outfit will be difficult. Earlier the INC always allowed its partner to nominate candidate from North Goa. It is highly unlikely that the NCP will not field a candidate from this seat if the talks wit the Congress fail. It was speculated that BJP rebel Vishnu Wagh would resign from the legislature and contest from this seat as a NCP candidate. Meanwhile, the Aam Admi Party (AAP) has nominated Dattaram Desai from here. Finally, the support of the Catholics and the Muslims too could decide the ultimate winner.

GOA & LOK SABHA 2014

WILL IT BE EVEN-STEVEN IN GOA YET AGAIN?

In 2012, the BJP created history in the small yet beautiful state of Goa as it crossed the half way mark on its own, winning a whopping 21 seats. The party had indeed played its cards well. While the incumbent Congress-NCP regime in the state was fighting charges of failing to curb illegal mining, the saffron outfit made the right moves. First, it entered into a pre-poll agreement with the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) which has a solid vote bank in the central talukas of the state. Also, Parrikar extended an olive branch to the powerful Catholic minority in Goa whom he had angered in his earlier term. At the same time, the Congress made a blunder by giving tickets to multiple candidates from the political families. After having governed the state for about two years, the Lok Sabha polls are an acid test for the former IIT alumni. In the last two General elections, both the UPA and the NDA won a seat each from the beach state. It will be interesting to see whether the BJP under Parrikar will be able to reverse this trend and storm the tiny state.

ISSUES

(1) Local versus National: With the BJP being in power for nearly two years now, the performance of the Manohar Parrikar government is going to be a key electoral issue before the 2014 General Elections. In his third term, there have been certain positives and few negatives too. Several schemes introduced by him including the Ladli Lakshmi scheme, providing an assistance of Rs 1,000/- to housewives with an annual household income of less than three lakh, another programme under which unemployed youth would get a monthly dole, the continuation of the cyber scheme and controlling the prices of fuel in the state have been lauded. At the same time, the rebellion of MLA Vishnu Wagh, the impasse over mining, the regime's U-turn over the Medium of Instruction at the primary level, its failure to cancel licenses of casinos and the recent strike by taxi drivers in the state may hurt the saffron party's prospects. 

While mixed signals are coming regarding the regime in Panaji from the people on the ground, there is no ambiguity about how the masses feel about the UPA II at the Centre. The Manmohan Singh government has failed on all accounts be it corruption, economic development, foreign affairs or defence. The BJP's poll campaign will certainly revolve around highlighting the myriad failures of the Congress led government in New Delhi. At the same time, the INC is expected to focus on local issues to counter the Parrikar government.

(2) The ban over Mining: Illegal mining in the state was probably the biggest issue during the 2012 Goa legislative polls. The BJP had accused the then Chief Minister Digamber Kamat of being involved in the multi-crore scam. Based on an affidavit filed by Prashant Bhushan and others, the Supreme Court banned mining in Goa in late 2012. Considering that mining and allied sectors are one of the pillars of the state economy, the thousands affected by the ban are feeling the pinch. In a rally in Panjim early this year, BJP's PM nominee Narendra Modi has promised to revoke the ban if he is elected to power. Even the Governor lashed out at the Centre earlier this week for failing to provide a special economic package to the state to help people affected by the Court's order.

(3) The Demand for Special Status: As Goa was a former Portuguese colony, the culture here is distinct from most other parts of the country. However, in recent years, there has been a heavy influx of people coming into the beach state from other parts of the country. Besides, a large number of non-Goans and foreigners have started buying property here. This is led to fear amongst the local that they will become a minority in their own state and lose their identity. As such, time and again demands for Special status for Goa have been raised by politicians across party lines. CM Parrikar has promised to fulfill this demand in case a NDA government comes to power in New Delhi. You can certainly expect this emotive issue to come up during the elections.

(4) The Catholic Votes: The Christians account for nearly 26 percent of the total population in the state. As such, their votes matter a lot. In fact, one of the reasons for BJP to do exceedingly well in 2012 was the backing it received from the community. Earlier, Parrikar had repented for the mistakes he had done in his earlier term including cancelling the public holiday for Good Friday which had alienated the Catholics. Also, the saffron party fielded several Catholic candidates across the state. It will be interesting to see if the community will still be with the BJP or go back to the Congress, especially after the elevation of Narendra Modi.

CONTENDERS 

(1) The BJP: After crossing the half way mark on its own in the state elections, you can expect the BJP to sweep the two seats in Goa. The CM Manohar Parrikar has an extremely clean image. Moreover, the fact that he has graduated the prestigious IIT-Bombay adds more value. Over a period of time, he has proved to be one of the best administrators in the country. The saffron outfit has been the dominant player in North Goa where its candidate Shripad Naik has won multiple times. However, can the BJP wrest back the South Goa seat from the Congress is the big question. Considering the significant Catholic population, wining the Marmagao seat might be a little difficult for the party.

(2) The Congress: At present, Francisco Sardinha of the INC represents the South Goa seat in the Lower House. After being reduced to mere nine seats in last state elections, it will certainly be an uphill task for the grand old party to win even a single seat from here. However, if it can win back the trust of the Catholic community then things will change. Another factor to note is whether the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) will fight the elections in Goa with a pre-poll agreement with the Congress like in neighboring Maharashtra. If the alliance does not go through then both the constituents of the UPA are bound to doom in Goa.

(3) Others: The Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) which fought the state polls in an alliance with the BJP has not yet made its stand clear. Considering the clout of the powerful Dhawalikar brothers in the Priol-Marcaim region, it will be good for the NDA if they can convince the MGP to refrain from contesting. Former Tourism minister Mickky Paccecho's Goa Vikas Party (GVP) too has strong presence in parts of Southern Goa. An understanding with him will help gain some Christian votes. The Aam Admi Party (AAP) got a big boost when two of the state's most prominent personalities - musician Remo Fernandes and activist Dr. Oscar Rebello joined it. The candidates they choose will decide if AAP can open its account here. Former CM Dayanad Narvekar's Goa Democratic Party (GDP) and the United Goans Democratic Party (UGDP) are expected to be fringe players.

PAST PERFORMANCE 

The below chart in many ways depicts the way Goan politics has moved in last two decades. In 1996, the regional parties were dominant as the state's two original outfits - the MGP and the UGDP won a single seat each. Ironically, this was the last time that a regional party won a Lok Sabha seat from the state. In 1998, the Congress won both the seats whereas in the very next year, it was the BJP that swept Goa. In the last two polls, while the BJP has won the North Goa seat, the South Goa seat has gone to the INC. Both in 2004 and 2009, the Congress and the NCP had fought the elections in a pre-poll alliance. 

Political Party	1996	1998	1999	2004	2009
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	-	-	2	1	1
Congress (INC)	-	2	-	1	1
Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP)	1	-	-	-	-
United Goans Democratic Party (UGDP)	1	-	-	-	-

MY PREDICTIONS

While Parrikar's approval rating may not be sky high at the moment I think the BJP is the strongest contender here to bag both seats. Three-time MP Shripad Naik is likely to sail through in the North and the Catholics seems to have no reason to desert the saffron outfit. Moreover, the CM's rather soft approach on the Medium of Instruction in schools was seen as an attempt to appease the Christians. It will be beneficial if the party can persuade its ally, the MGP to refrain from putting candidates. The Congress will find it hard to retain South Goa, especially after the bad governance of the UPA II. However, the tie-up with the NCP will help. Meanwhile, if they can rope in Paccecho's GVP then its fortunes in Marmagao may change. 

	Political Party/Alliance	Expected Seats
1	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	1-2
2	UPA (Congress+NCP)	0-1

WATCH OUT

(1) The Wounded Tiger: After jumping several ships, Vishnu Wagh contested the 2012 elections from the St. Andre constituency and won. Denied a ministerial berth, he has been sulking for long and even sent overtures to the NCP. On a visit to a social gathering organized by a local NCP leader, he was alleged attacked by BJP goons. A few weeks back, he was stripped of all his positions in the government by the CM. Wagh has now dared the BJP to expel him. He knows that if he willing resigns, he will no longer be a MLA. It is speculated that he may join the NCP and contest the North Goa parliamentary seat against Shripad. 

(2) The Ripple Effect: In 2005, months after the NDA was dislodged from power, a group of four BJP legislators deserted the party and joined the Congress. In fact, Goa is a state known for its political instability. Vishnu Wagh is already in rebellion. Thought the government still enjoys the support of about 23 MLAs, it will not take much the woo the MGP away. In case, the UPA wins this election, you can be pretty sure that Parrikar will not complete his full term in spite of a handsome victory in 2012.

For more posts in this series:
(1) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

THE STATES THAT MATTER - PART VI

BATTLEGROUND GOA

The last state that goes to polls in the first round of the assembly elections in 2012 is the small yet beautiful state of Goa. Known for its blue waters, pristine beaches, grand churches and magnificent temples, the most picturesque of all states in the Indian Union attracts a large number of tourists each year. With a small population and a good literacy rate, Goa is considered as one of the best states to live in. Due to the fact that the state formed a part of Portugal for over 450 years, the Goan culture, characterized by sushegaad or easy going attitude is a unique blend of Indian and Portuguese elements. 

Goa CM Digamber Kamat

Though the state celebrated 50 years of liberation on 19 December last year, there has been a steady rise in the discontent amongst the local populace as many of the problems that continue to haunt them have not yet been resolved. While the state is miles ahead of several other in terms of development, it has also acquired the dubious distinction of being a politically volatile state. In an assembly comprising of just 40 members, poaching of MLAs, horse trading and side switching are very common. The state has seen as many as 19 Chief Ministers in the last 5 decades, with some like Ravi Naik and Churchill Alemao serving for as few as six and eighteen days respectively. With both the culture and environment of Goa under threat, the upcoming polls are being looked upon by the electorate as extremely crucial for the future of the state.

Like in neighboring Karnataka, illegal mining which has stripped many parts of the state of its green cover is likely to be the most dominant issue in the upcoming polls. Many parts of the state like Bicholim in North Goa and Salcette, Sanguem and Quepem in South Goa are rich in minerals like iron, manganese and bauxite. However, over the years, the mining heavyweights in connivance with politicians have indulged in illegal mining, robbing the state exchequer and flouting all environmental and wildlife clearances.

A report by a committee in this regard headed by the then PAC chairman and Leader of Opposition Manohar Parrikar has criticized the Congress led state government of doing very little to curb this menace. With four member of the committee, three Congressmen and one MLA of the MGP – a coalition partner in the government, refusing to sign the report, Speaker Pratapsing Rane did not table it. Accusing the BJP leader of leaking the report, the Speaker reconstituted the PAC and replaced Parrikar with BJP MLA from South, Vijay Pai Khot who was seen as being close to the CM and in fact, switched over to the Congress a few months later. Another report by Justice M B Shah is said to have found evidence that most of the mine owners were extracting more resources than permissible under the law mainly to satisfy the demands of the Chinese markets. The Shah report is also believed to have indicted several prominent members of the state government of profiting from this flourishing trade at the cost of Goa and its people. Like Parrikar’s report, the Shah report has not yet been published, and sources suggest that Shah may be relieved of his consignment soon to prevent further embarrassment to the party.

With Goa’s CM Digamber Kamat serving as the state’s Minister for mines for a whopping 12 years, many believe that he has played a key role in promoting and shielding the mining mafia. Apart from Kamat, several Congressmen including Vishwajeet Rane (Health), Joaquim Alemao (Urban Development) and GPCC President Subash Shirodkar are either, directly or indirectly, connected to the mining industry. Though the BJP has made a huge hue and cry over this issue, its candidates in the mining rich areas of Sanguem, Curchorem, Sanvordem and Bicholim have interests in the mining and allied sectors, like that of the ruling Congress.

The issue of non-Goan migrants endangering Goa’s unique culture and identity has led to discontent among the locals. Thanks to tourism, mining and construction industries, many skilled and unskilled laborers from all over the country are being attracted to the state to make a quick buck. With influx of migrants increasing day by day, the locals believe that they might end up becoming a minority in their own state. This has fuelled the sons of the soil movement, which is gathering momentum gradually. A large number of non-Goans being accused of indulging in anti-social activities has made the matter worse. Though the agitation has largely been peaceful, it could take a violent turn anytime in the future. On these lines, the demand for special status to Goa, like several North Eastern states has been growing over the years. However, the Union Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee has dismissed such demands while adding that financial assistance to the state from the Centre may be increased. Even the BJP has not made any such promise in their manifesto.

BJP leader Manohar Parrikar

Closely related to the above issue, is the threat posed by real estate agents or the ‘land sharks’ that have cropped up in the state in the last one and half decade, hell bent on selling off Goa’s most priced resource – land to the highest payer. With the rich and middle class Indians preferring to buy their second homes in this popular tourist destination, the price of land, not only along the coast but even in the remotest corners of the state has sky rocketed. Several ministers and bureaucrats have been accused of pocketing massive sums of money to convert forest and agricultural land into commercial property. Besides, the Russian mafia is said to have acquired large stretches of land in Morjim which has become the hub of drugs and sex trade. The clout of the mafia can be inferred from the fact that the former Director General of Police (DGP) of Goa, Aditya Arya was transferred out of the state, alleged for his tough stand on his issue, apart from a series of other differences with the government.

The Regional Plan 2011 (RP 2011) which provided a framework for land conversion in the state in the coming years had become a major issue against the Congress government in 2007 elections. With ministers accused of getting huge kickbacks from the builders lobby, the Goa Bachao Abhiyan (GBA) under social activist Dr. Oscar Rebello launched a massive agitation asking for scrapping the proposal which received state wide support, most notably from the Catholic community. Even former CM Churchill Alemao quit the Congress and floated his own party, the Save Goa Front. Though he managed to beat Congress candidate and another former CM Luizinho Faleiro from Navelim, his party managed to get only two seats while the Congress got 16. After the new CM Digamber Kamat scrapped RP 2011, Churchill merged his party into the Congress and was made the PWD minister in the new government.

Unlike in 2007, the state government has involved several prominent architects, planners and members of the GBA to frame the Regional Plan 2021 (RP 2021), aiming to bring in transparency that was absent last time around. Much to the disappointment of the Congress-NCP government, voices against RP 2021 are getting louder. Bad boys of Goan politics, Education minister Babush Monseratte and Health minister Vishwajeet Rane are largely blamed for colluding with builders to de-notify vast acres of land for personal gains.

Another weapon in the arsenal of the BJP is the medium of instruction (MoI) at the primary level, which made the headlines in the state for a significant part of 2011. According to the Right to Education Act constituted by the Parliament, every child is to be provided in his mother tongue, which in this case is Konkani, in his neighborhood. When the Goa assembly was to ratify this Act, the Force for Rights of Children’s Education (FORCE) in association with several Catholic organizations asked the government to provide grants even to schools that use English as the MoI at the primary level, claiming that the choice should be left to the parents to decide as to which medium their child should study in. However the Bharatiya Bhasha Suraksha Manch (BBSM), headed by another former CM Sashikala Kakodkar in association with several freedom fighters has opposed any such move claiming that MoI should either be Konkani or Marathi. They say that providing grants to English might lead to extinction of regional languages and ultimately, the Goan culture in the future.

Initially the state government announced that it would only give grants to schools that use Konkani or Marathi as MoI. However, it later succumbed to the demands of the English lobby and decided to give grants to even those schools that conduct primary classes in English provided that they even have Konkani and Marathi sections. This triggered a series of demonstrations from the BBSM and the BJP. Even the MGP, a coalition partner in the government expressed its displease over the decision but continued to be its part. The Kamat government’s flip flops and indecisiveness over the MoI has drawn flaks from all quarters.

Congress leader Churchill Alemao with daughter Valanka

Continuing its rich tradition of family politics, the Goa unit of the Congress has given tickets to kin of several prominent leaders in the upcoming polls. Justifying the decision, the party in charge of Goa Oscar Fernandes has said that the biggest factor that the party considered while granting tickets has been ‘win ability’. While the Ranes - Pratapsinh from Poriem and son Vishwajeet from Valpoi and the Alemao brothers - Churchill from Navelim and Joaquim from Cuncolim have been retained, Churchill’s daughter Valanka has been allocated a ticket from Benaulim. Joaquim’s son Yuri has managed to bag a NCP seat from Sanguem, making it four tickets to the Alemao family from the Congress-NCP coalition. Besides, the Monserrates - Babush from St Cruz and wife Jennifer from Taleigao, the Naiks – Ravi from Ponda and son Ritesh from Madkai and the Madkaikar brothers - Pandurang from Cumbharjua and brother Dhaku from Priol are the others that have benefited from the Congress policy.

With the government already battling charges of corruption, the Opposition BJP has claimed that if many members of a family are elected, it can lead to centralization of power and more corruption. However, its pre-poll ally, the MGP has retained the Dhawalikar brothers – Sudhin from Marcaim and Deepak from Priol. Meanwhile, the Delhi CM Sheila Dixit has claimed that the Goa model of ticket distributing could be employed elsewhere in case it is successful in the upcoming polls.
Though the BJP is stepping up its attack on the government, the biggest worry for the saffron outfit is the reported rift between two of its most prominent leaders in the state - Manohar Parrikar and the party's lone MP from the state Shripad Naik. Manohar, a two time CM is the only IITian to  become the Chief Minister of any Indian state. Widely regarded as an upright and honest man, he is credited to have launched several welfare programmes during his tenure. However, he is known to be autocratic and stubborn, a fact that people say makes it difficult to work with him. Meanwhile, Shripad Naik has represented the North Goa constituency in the Parliament for several terms.

Party insiders say that Shripad wanted to contest the state elections from Porvorim. While there was little doubt that Naik would romp home to victory, he would surely emerge as a strong rival to Parrikar, which could hamper the BJP's unity and be detrimental to its interest. Initially, when the party refused to allocate a ticket to Shripad, he went to the media and demanded answers from he national leadership. Finally, when the BJP agreed to give him a ticket, he turned down the offer, much to the relief of the high command. The Congress has tried to project the snub to Shripad as the BJP's pro-Brahmin policy. They say that party favored Parrikar over Shripad as the former belongs to the influential Gaud Saraswat Brahmin (GSB) community whereas the latter is a low caste leader.

Considering the fact that the Goa has seen hung assembly in the last few state elections, the smaller regional parties are hoping to play king makers in case the trend continues this time. The NCP which is a partner in the incumbent government has entered into a pre-poll alliance with the Congress and will contest 7 seats. When veteran NCP leader Praful Patel reached Goa to finalize candidates for the seats allocated to it, a host of Congress leaders including Vishwajeet Rane, Ravi Naik, Babush Monserrate and Joaquim Alemao went to him to get seats for their relatives and supporters, who could not be accommodated by their party. While the party retained its incumbent MLAs – Nilkant Halarnkar from Tivim and Jose Philip D’Souza from Vasco, its other candidates include Yuri Alemao (Sangeum), Rudresh Chodankar (Mayem) and Ashish Shirodkar (Mapusa). With so many tickets allocated to acquaintances of the Congressmen, the NCP unit of Goa looks more like a B Team of the Congress. Meanwhile, several state leaders of the party who were denied tickets have shifted over to the BJP or are contesting as independents.

Barge carrying minerals on Mandovi river

The Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP), which ruled the state between the 60s to the 80s has seen a steady decline in its fortunes over the years. Perhaps, the biggest blow to the party came when Sashikala Kakodkar broke away from the party and joined the Congress. As the Congress grew from strength to strength, many of the prominent MGP leaders including Pratapsinh Rane and Ramakant Khalap deserted the party. An alliance with BJP in 1994 proved suicidal as the saffron outfit ate into the MGP’s traditional vote share.

The main aim of the party was to merge Goa into Maharashtra which was rejected in an Opinion Poll of 1967. Though the party continued to dominate the state politics post 1967, its ideology remained stagnant and the youth failed to identify with it. Today the MGP is like a fiefdom of the powerful Dhawalikar brothers. Though they were a part of the Congress led coalition government, the MGP broke sensing anti-incumbency and differences over the MoI issue. On the eve of the elections, the MGP has entered into a pre-poll pact with the BJP and will contest 8 seats. The polls are important for the MGP as it needs to get at least 3 seats or 95,000 votes to retain its symbol.

The Goa Vikas Party (GVP) has entered into an alliance with the United Goans Democratic Party (UGDP) to provide a third alternative for the electorate. Former Tourism Minister Mickky Pacheco who broke away from the NCP after problems with the party high command and several Congress ministers, most notably Churchill Alemao. Prime accused in the Nadia murder case, Paccheo is hopeful of spoiling the prospects of several high profile candidates.

The Trinamool Congress (TMC) is a late entrant into Goan politics and the state unit is headed by former CM Dr. Wilfred D’Souza. D’Souza who joined the NCP few years back was hopeful of getting a Congress ticket for his son-in-law Tulio D’Souza. After it became clear that this would not happen, Willy as he is popularly known jumped over to the TMC. Amongst the party’s candidates include several former Congressmen including Sameer Salgaoncar (Mandrem), Savio Coutinho (Margao) and Bandu Desai (Valpoi). While Willy himself will contest from Aldona, Tulio has not been fielded for unknown reasons.

A surprising aspect of the BJP’s election campaign is the conscious effort to reach out to the Catholic community that makes up to 25% of the total population of the state, a traditional Congress vote bank. Parrikar has admitted that the decision to cancel the public holiday on Good Friday was a blunder. The party has also fielded a large number of fresh faces from the Catholic community including Glen Souza Ticlo (Aldona), Carlos Almeida (Vasco), Nilesh Cabral (Curchorem) and Micheal Lobo (Calangute). Besides, Matanhy Saldanha, a minister in the previous BJP government, known for being anti-Congress throughout his political career will contest from Cortalim. The party has retained its only Christian MLA Francisco D’Souza from Mapusa.

Considering that Goa is looked upon as a prestigious state, both the coalitions are putting in all efforts to win the upcoming polls. A victory here may not affect the national politics but will surely be a moral booster for the victors ahead of the other assembly elections. Meanwhile, the regional parties and the many independents are hoping to play a key role in government formation in case the electorate gives a fractured verdict. All are waiting for March 6th results that will determine as to who will be crowned the King of Goa.

SOURCES

(1) NDTV - Report on illegal Goa mining presents crisis for Chief Minister (Link)

(2) The Hindu - Parrikar hopes report on illegal mining in Goa will be tabled today (Link)

(3) Goa News - Parrikar rubbishes leaking PAC report on illegal mining (Link)

(4) Goa News - Cong-BJP field mining businessmen as candidates (Link)

(5) First Post - BJP's Pai Khot repalces Parrikar as Goa PAC chief (Link)

(6)  Goa News - DGP Arya transferred for targeting Russian mafia den in Morjim? (Link)

(7) Navhind Times - Why regional plan deserves support (Link)

(8) RTE - Goa cabinet announces English as MoI (Link)

(9) Goa News - Sheila justifies family tickets (Link)

(10) Goa News - Rane, Ravi, Joaquim lobby in NCP camp (Link)

(11) Wikipedia - Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (Link)

(12) Goa News - Trinamul picks up Sameer, Raut, Savio & Bandu (Link)

(13) Goa News - 'Conscious effort of BJP to reach Christians' (Link)

IMAGES

(1) Goa CM Digamber Kamat

Source: Top News - Goa chief minister asks tourists to follow 'code' for safety (Link)

(2) BJP leader Manohar Parrikar

Source: Zee News - Parrikar govt to classify mining leases in Goa (Link)

(3) Congress leader Churchill Alemao with daughter Valanka

Source: Goal - Churchill Alemao's daughter Valanka Alemao hails Balckburn's visit to India (Link)

(4) Barge carrying minerals on Mandovi river

Source: Goenche - How can we use IT Technology to solve the mining issues in Goa (Link)