O MAJHI RE

WILL MANJHI TAKES NITISH's SAHARA?

Jitan Ram Manjhi - Courtesy: FB

After taking a series of pot shots at Rashtriya Janat Dal (RJD) and its leader Tejashwi Yadav over the course of the month for failing to adhere to the coalition dharma, former Bihar CM and HAM(S) chief Jitan Ram Manjhi has decided to break ranks with the Mahaghatbandhan prior to the impending state polls, scheduled for the end of the year. The decision was taken at the party plenum convened at the chief's residence in Patna where it empowered the EBC leader to take all decisions regarding the future of the outfit. Ahead of the all important state elections, it was speculated that there could be some hiccups within the two major formations in Bihar and with his decision to call it splits with the RJD led UPA, the leader from Gaya may have just opened the flood gates for other smaller parties to look for greener pastures across the politicl spectrum.

For a state renowned for its politicians changing parties based on which way the winds are blowing, the leader from the Extremely Backward Musahar community is no exception. In fact, Manjhi has been the poster boy of the political opportunism that is so rampant in Bihar. He began his political career in the Congress in the early 80s and rose to become a cabinet minister in successive INC regimes in Patna before jumping to the Janata Dal and then moving to Lalu Yadav's RJD. Having served as a minister in Lalu and Rabri cabinets, he joined the Nitish Kumar led JD-U when the former came to power in late 2005. Manjhi has not been a stranger to controversies too; he was an accussed in the fake B Ed. degree racket during his tenure as the state education minister in the Lalu regime in the 90s but was absolved of all charges later.

The biggest moment in his four decade long political career came in 2014 when he was elevated to the post of the state's Chief Minister after incumbent CM Nitish Kumar took responsibilty of his party's rout at the hands of the BJP in the Lok Sabha polls and stepped down. This was seen as an attempt on part of the JD-U chief to woo back the EBCs who had gravitated to the saffron outfit under Narendra Modi. Unfortunately for Manjhi, his days at the center of politics in Bihar did not last long, especially after it emerged that he would not be a rubber stamp CM. Asked to resign in wake of the 2015 state polls to make way for Nitish to lead the Grand Alliance, the leader from Gaya put up a spirited defence, refusing to vacate the chair for his party chief. Clearly short of numbers to prove his majority, he resigned and launched the Hindustani Awam Manch (Secular), accusing his former boss of targeting him on the basis of his 'low' caste status.

Thanks to his short though controversial tenure as the Bihar CM, it was believed that Manjhi could potentially become the new face of the EBCs in Bihar, thereby cutting into the traditional votebank of the JD-U. Moreover, on the poll campaign, he would play up the sympathy card, vowing to avenge the insult heaped upon him and the entire EBC community by Nitish. It was on this assumption that the HAM-S was allocated 20 seats by the NDA for the hotly contested 2015 state polls. As the freinds turned foes turned friends - Lalu and Nitish joined hands, the NDA was swept away; HAM(S) managed to win just a single seat. In what was seen as a personal loss, Manjhi was himself beaten in Makdumpura though he did prevail in Imanganj, a saving grace at max. The result was a clear indication of the fact that the EBCs had continued to place their trust in the JD-U. August 2017 witnessed a major realignment of political forces in Patna. As his relations with his then deputy Tejaswi Yadav became untenable, Nitish ditched the RJD to rejoin the NDA, forcing Manjhi to ally the HAM(S) with the Mahaghatbandhan. In the 2019 General Elections, the party put up candidates in 3 parliamentary seats - Nalanda, Aurangabad and Gaya as a part of the UPA only to draw a blank. With two back to back setbacks, Manjhi and his outfit seem to be more or less sinking into political oblivion.

Now that he has dilly-dallyed with both the NDA and the UPA in Bihar, what's next for Manjhi? Perhaps, the easier (yet impractical) option is to work towards the formation of a Third Front in Bihar. The HAM(S) can tie up with smaller parties and social organizations including Assad-ud-din Owaisi's AIMIM, Pappu Yadav's Jan Adhikari Party (JAP), the NCP, the SP and the Left Parties amongst others. In the weeks ahead, as the two major political formations in the state sit down to finalize their seat-sharing arrangements, Manjhi could find ample opportunities to woo disgruntled elements including Kushwaha's RLSP, Sahani's VIP or even Paswan's LJP to his front. In case of a hung assembly, these smaller outfits could decide who forms the next government in Patna. However, I call this option 'impractical' because for long now, Bihar has given a clear mandate and I see no indication as to why 2020 would be different. Also, forming such a rainbow alliance is going to be a herculean task. Even otherwise, lacking a clear political agenda or dedicated cadre and voter base, the HAM(S) seems to be in no position to win more than one or two seats in case it fights alone, making it largely irrelevant even in case of a hypothetical hung assembly.

The other more practical approach is to accept that the HAM(S) experiment has flopped and merge it either into the BJP or still better, the JD(U). Political realignment is not something new in Bihar. Moreover, in the current scenario, incumbent CM Nitish Kumar may be more than willing to welcome back his former comrade. Apart from a 15 year long incumbency, the JD(U) is still facing some backclash for having dumped the RJD for the Modi led NDA. Some of the most prominent faces of the outfit including former President Sharad Yadav and spokesperson Pawan Kumar Verma are no longer with him. At this stage, Kumar should be relieved to have some of his older loyalists with him as he faces the toughest political battle of his career. The question is whether HAM(S) chief can swallow his pride and do a Sachin Pilot.

BIHAR 2015: THE VERDICT

BJP SWEPT AWAY AS LALU HELPS NITISH EARN A HAT-TRICK

Though many were expecting Bihar to be a close contest after a bitterly fought campaign, with leader from both camps often indulging in 'inappropriate' language and even going below the belt on some occasions, the people of India's third most populous state have delivered a resounding verdict, choosing the 'Mahaghatbandhan' led by by their incumbent CM Nitish Kumar over PM Narendra Modi's NDA. In many ways, it was a fairy tale come back for the JD-U chief; after a series of blunders that threatened to jeopardize his political career altogether, he has 'risen' from the ashes, beating the PM with whom, he has had some scores to settle with. While Kumar is all set to retain the chair of the CM, the 'Man of the Series' is certainly Lalu Prasad Yadav. The former Bihar CM who was once Nitish's staunchest rival is in my opinion, one of the biggest factors responsible for the 'grand' victory of the mega alliance. For the BJP and its allies though, the results have been crushing; saying that the NDA 'lost' the polls would be a massive under statement since they have been 'routed' with the regional front winning thrice as many seats as the BJP led coalition.

The highlight of the Bihar state polls 2015 for me has been the manner in which Nitish, Lalu and most importantly, the cadre of the two parties have resolved the bitter differences that existed amongst them in the past and literally blown away the BJP and its allies. While there is no doubt that this was an alliance to retain their political significance, the JD-U chief and the RJD supremo must be credited for sticking together in spite of varying styles of functioning and reaching consensus on all important issues including the post of CM, seat sharing arrangement, campaign strategy et all. Though there were some murmurs of dissent within their ranks initially, the cadre too seem to have worked. Remarkably, the regional front even managed to transfer their respective vote banks to candidates of the alliance across the state. The electoral campaign of the grand alliance was pretty simple. While the soft-spoken Nitish Kumar harped on the development bandwagon, the more 'brash' Lalu took on the hard line, hitting out at the PM and his aide Amit Shah at regular intervals. Of course, the many blunders from the saffron camp including the failure to project a local leader, the beef controversy and the 'unwarranted' statements regarding reservations made by the RSS chief only gave more ammunition to the regional players.

The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) finished as the single largest party in the state assembly, winning 80 of the 101 seats it contested, its best tally in over a decade. The Janata Dal - United (JD-U) finished with a tally of 71 whereas the Congress seems to have been a big beneficiary of the verdict. The INC won nearly 70% of the total seats it contested.

For the BJP, its dream of a saffron government in Patna was crashed after its alliance finished with a paltry tally of 58 seats. The fact remains that in spite of the NDA's superlative performance in the 2014 General Elections, the saffron outfit was always the 'underdog' considering that the two regional parties had joined hands to counter it. The BJP tried to counter this by roping in the PM to address over 30 rallies in the state and roping in JD-U rebel and former CM Manjhi with an eye on the Extremely Backward Class votes. However, a spate of errors on its part, some of which I have already recounted above cost it dearly. Some of the leaders of the party or belonging to its affiliates only made the matters worse by raking up communal and casteist sentiments further strengthening the anti-NDA votes. Spoilers like the AIMIM, the SP and the NCP failed to make any considerable dent in the Opposition's tally. Moreover, Nitish's record as a 'capable' CM and the lack of any substantial anti-incumbency on the ground meant that the BJP was wiped off Bihar.

The charts displayed here are created using the free online tool - ChartGo (Link).

DO OR DIE...

Lalu Yadav - Facebook

While most political commentators dipped their pens in black ink and wrote the political obituary of former CM Lalu Prasad Yadav after his party was reduced to mere four parliamentary seats in the 2014 Union Polls, the 'unholy and unexpected' alliance between him and his bête noire - Nitish Kumar seems to have given the RJD supremo one more chance to remain relevant in a state which he dominated for nearly two decades. In the run up to the big polls, the split in the NDA was seen by many as the 'opening' that Lalu needed to stage a political comeback after being on the fringes for nearly five years and his conviction in the multi-crore Fodder Scam; unfortunately, the Modi wave was just too strong for him to regain his lost glory. However, the realignment of political forces in the state with the coming together of the former Janata Dal constituents to take on a resurgent BJP could well be the opportunity that has been eluding the Yadav leader for long. With the sword of Damocles hanging over his head, Bihar 2015 has become a 'Do or Die' scenario for one of India's most colorful yet controversial politician.

Nobody understands the gravity of the situation more than Lalu himself. The astute politician that he is, the sheer number of 'sacrifices' that he has made in the last few months should make it clear how much importance the former Rail Minister attaches to the poll verdict. Firstly, in spite of his bitter rivalry with his one time comrade turned foe Nitish Kumar, the Yadav strongman agreed to a coalition with the latter's JD-U, the same party that has eroded Lalu's Muslim and lower caste vote base. Many were skeptical of such an alliance considering the bad blood between the two regional leaders and their ideological differences. However, Lalu on his part should be appreciated for holding on to 'Maha Ghatbandhan' in the wake of many differences. Secondly, aware of the popularity of the incumbent CM amongst the masses, the RJD supremo buckled under pressure, allowing the mega coalition to project Nitish as its CM nominee. This is so much different than the Lalu Prasad we have known over the years; remember, it was he who famously stalled Mulayum Singh Yadav's bid to become the PM back in the nineties. Not only this, he also agreed to fight the same number of seats as the JD-U, something that many believed was just not possible, more so after the RJD conceded the CM's chair to Nitish. Surely, the former CM has gone out of the way to ensure that his alliance remains strong in its battle against the NDA.

Lalu clearly understands his role in the campaign for grand alliance; his conviction in the Fodder Scam and the pathetic state of law and order in the state during his tenure as the CM make him the prime target of the BJP which has termed his days at the helm of affairs in Patna as 'Jungle Raj'. However, the RJD chief is the master in caste based politics, a factor that continues to resonate with the electorate here even today. No wonder than that he is playing the caste card to win over the voters. The recent comments by RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat calling for the retrospection of reservation policy in the country and the spate in the killings of Dalits in the BJP ruled Haryana has given more ammunition for the Yadav strongman to train his gun at the saffron camp. Lalu has been the darling of the Muslims ever since he stopped Advani's Rath Yatra back in 1990 and he continues to flaunt his 'secular' credentials particularly in the wake of the Dadri lynching, hoping to stitch back his fabled Muslim - Yadav combination that was the base which catapulted him to three straight wins in the state. And in his vintage style, the Rashtriya Janata Dal boss has not shied away from attacking PM Modi even calling him a 'Brahm Pishchak' on one occassion.

Meanwhile, an indication of his declining clout in Bihar was evident from the defeat of his eldest daughter Misa Bharati from the Paliputra parliamentary seat in May last year. With his sons - Tej Pratap and Tejaswi in the fray for the state polls this time around, the stakes for Lalu Yadav are much higher. In case, the saffron alliance manages to sweep the state and the RJD fails to put up a good show, serious questions will be raised over the future of his party. In the past two years, several of the RJD's leaders including Ramkripal Yadav and Pappu Yadav have either deserted the outfit or have been shown the door. In case, the party fails to perform well in the scheduled polls, one can expect another exodus of the few remaining leaders from the party outside its first family. Not only will it relegate Lalu to the fringes, but will also take the gas out of the RJD's lantern. The Yadav strongman will certainly want his sons to have a good start in their political careers and for this to happen, a victory for the mega coalition in Bihar is essential.

Speaking to the media, Lalu had once remarked 'Jab tak rahega samose mein aloo, tab tak rahega Bihar mein Lalu'. While the starchy vegetable will continue to be a part of one of India's most famous snack for a long time, the November 12 verdict will decide the fate of the RJD chief and his party. Till then, we need to keep our fingers crossed.

P.S: I have started a new blog - Raajaniti (Link) dedicated to Indian politics. Henceforth, I will put up posts relating to Indian politics on both of these blogs. 

Also, I would request you to check out the new blog and please provide your valuable feedback.