KERALA & LOK SABHA 2014

CAN THE LEFT SALVAGE LOST PRIDE?

From Goa, we move on to another tourist destination - God's own country of Kerala. Located on the western coast, the state generally sees a bipolar contest between the Congress and the Left Front. However, if you think that the polls in the southern state that boasts of the highest literacy rate in the country are just about the two main parties, then you are way out of the mark. A lot is at stake here, quite literally. After failing to find any allies in Tamil Nadu, the refusal of KCR to merge his outfit into the INC and an impending rout in Seemandhra, the UPA's hopes are pinned on Karnataka and Kerala if it has to do well south of the Vindhyas. For the Left, the situation is even more precarious. Mamata Bannerjee seems to be getting stronger by the day in its former bastion of Bengal. For the 'Dead Front', I mean Third Front (Link) to even dream of coming to power in New Delhi, the Communist have to win a minimum of 30 seats. In that case, the Reds have to sweep Kerala so as to make up for their losses in the elsewhere.

ISSUES

(1) The Anti-Congress, anti-BJP Front: Kerala is one state where the Left's idea of an alternative front may find many takers. The Congress led UPA government at the Centre has flopped on all issues of national importance. Innumerable corruption scandals and economic slow down has tarnished the image of the country and has dented the credibility of the INC. Secondly, the elevation of Narendra Modi within the ranks of the saffron outfit has polarized the situation to some extent. In Kerala, where nearly 44 percent of the population are non-Hindus, you can expect the comrades to talk about 'Secularism' in their campaign.

(2) Kasturirangan Report on Western Ghats: The Kasturirangan report on the protection of ecological diverse Western ghats identified 123 villages in the state as Ecologically Sensitive Areas. The Ministry of Environment issued a memorandum last November to curb activities in these villages. This has angered Christian farmers who have traditionally voted for the Congress and its ally, the Kerala Congress. The influential Catholic Church too has stepped in, asking the Central government to consider the plight of the farmers. Realizing that the incumbent regime is on the back foot, the UDF has been taking a rather tough stand on this issue, both within the assembly and on the streets too.

(3) Alliance troubles for the Communists: For all, the Leftists have been the strongest advocaters of a federal formation to lead the country. For such an alliance, it is imperative that they have to join hands with nearly 10 to 15 partners across the nation, an art first displayed by Vajpayee which was later perfected by the Congress. However, can the Communists manage to hold their allies together. The political developments in Kerala over the last few days do not suggest so. The LDF received a shock last week when its former ally - the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) joined the UDF after a meeting with CM Ooman Chandy. The move comes after the CPI and the RSP failed to come to a conclusion over who amongst then two will field candidate from the Kollam seat.

CONTENDERS

(1) The United Democratic Front (UDF): The UDF, which is presently ruling in the state is led by the Congress. Unlike last time when it contested 17 of the 20 seats, it has decided to contest two seats less this time around. The INC is so confident of its good performance in the state that it has renominated 11 of its 13 incumbent including the four Union Ministers namely Kodikkunnil Suresh (Mavelikara), K C Venugopal (Alappuzha), K V Thomas (Ernakulam) and Shashi Tharoor (Thiruvananthapuram). Meanwhile, P C Chacko who headed the Joint Parliamentary Committee that looked into the 2G scam has shifted to Chalakkudi due to factionalism in the Thrissur unit of the Congress. Besides, P T Thomas, a close aide of the CM Chandy however, has been denied a ticket from Idukki following pressure from the Church over his remarks in favor of the Kasturirangan report.

The Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) has got two seats as per its seat sharing arrangement with the Congress. The Minister of State for External Affairs E Ahamed will re-contest from Malappuram. Other constituents of the UDF - the Kerala Congress (Mani) and the Socialist Justice Party (SJP) have got one seat each. The Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) which grabbed all the eyeballs after its bitter divorce with the LDF has bagged the Kollam seat. On the paper, the UDF is one of the most powerful combinations in the nation today (Link).

(2) The Left Democratic Front (LDF): The Communist Party of India - Marxist (CPI-M) is the dominant partner in the LDF. The comrades know how important the Kerala polls are for its political ambitions at the Centre. However, considering the way it is throwing around its weight, it seems that it is bound to doom. It seems that the party is said to contest or support independent candidates in 15 seats. It has left out four seats for the Communist Party of India (CPI). The Janata Dal - Secular (JD-S) is set to contest from the Kottayam seat. Several smaller outfits are upset with the high-handedness of the CPI-M and are likely to damage the prospects of the Left Front. An interesting feature in the party's list is that it has declared support to as many as five independents including former Congressman Philipose Thomas from Pathanamthitta.

(3) Others: The BJP is expected to at least increase its vote share if not win a ticket in Kerala. The saffron outfit has more than a nominal presence in the northern parts of the state, especially the areas bordering Karnataka. Besides, former minister in Vajpayee cabinet, the 85 year old O Rajagopal has been fielded from the state capital. The Aam Admi Party (AAP) too has fielded some strong candidates including writer cum activist Sara Joseph (Thrissur), former IPS Officer Ajit Joy (Thiruvananthapuram) and journalist Anita Pratap (Kochi). What could go against the party are the comments made by senior leader Kumar Vishwas who taken racial digs at nurses from the state.

PAST PERFORMANCES

The below chart shows the performance of various parties in Kerala over the last five big polls. Between 1996 and 1999, the two major players - the INC and the Left Front (CPI-M and CPI) both won an equal number of seats. However, in 2004 it was the Communist who walked away with lion's share of seats. The Congress was humiliated in Kerala even as it dislodged the BJP from power in New Delhi. In 2009, as the Left dropped from 64 to 30 odd seats, the Congress increased its tally to 13 in the state. The comrades could only win only 4 seats. The IUML has been performing well in its stronghold, winning two seats, 4 out of 5 times. The Mani faction of the Kerala Congress to has displayed good consistency winning Kottayam on 4 occasions.

Political Party	2009	2004	1999	1998	1996
Congress (INC)	13	-	8	8	7
Indian Union Muslim League (IUML)	2	1	2	2	2
Kerala Congress (Mani)	1	-	1	1	1
Left (CPI-M/CPI)	4	15	8	8	7
Others	-	4	1	1	1

MY PREDICTIONS

In an earlier article I have named the UDF in Kerala as one of the potential game changers in 2014 elections (Link). Even the Times Now and the recently concluded NDTV-Hansa Research Opinion Polls seems to indicate that the Congress and its allies will do exceedingly well. I see a repeat of the 2009 election results this time around too. The UDF may drop a couple of seats to finish at 12-14 seats whereas the remaining will go the Red's kitty.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	UDF (INC/IUML/KC(M)/SJP/RSP)	12-14
2	LDF (CPI-M/CPI/JD-S)	6-8
3	Others	0-1

WATCH OUT

(1) The fight for Thiruvananthapuram: While he may have in the news for all the wrong reasons including the death of his wife Sunanada Pushkar last month, the Congress has stuck with its Minister and former UN official Shashi Tharoor from the state capital. However, the fight is not going to be easy this time around. The many controversies have led to bad press. At the same time, BJP's Rajagopal too is expected to perform well. The urban voters who seem to be attracted to Narendra Modi may vote for him. Ajit Joy from the AAP is also in the fray. It will be interesting to see who will win from here.

(2) Can the saffron outfit make its debut? The BJP has a good chance to open its account in the state. The BJP seems to be strong in north and in the capital. However, can it translate into seat(s) is the big question. Earlier whenever the party seemed to be strong, the Congress and the Left would enter into a secret pact where either of the two would field a weak candidate as to prevent the division of votes. However, it seems as if no such 'sinister deals' have been made this time around as both Fronts have gone full throttle to maximize their gains. This is the opportunity for the saffronists to make their mark in state politics.

For more posts in this series:
(1) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)

THE RACE FOR ALLIES

THE FIVE ALLIANCES WHICH COULD DECIDE WHO WINS 2014

The last time that the people voted for a single party government was way back in 1984 when the Indian National Congress won an unprecedented 414 seats due to the sympathy wave owing to the assassination of the PM Indira Gandhi. In fact, in every Lok Sabha elections since 1989, no party has been able to cross the half way mark on its own. The coalition era, characterized by the decline of the Congress, the inability of the BJP to penetrate into the southern and eastern parts of the country and the rise of regional aspirations is here to stay. There is nothing to indicate that the 2014 polls will be any way different. As such, the Congress and the BJP are going all out to woo new allies in a bid to strengthen their position. The elevation of Modi may have hurt the saffron outfit's chances of winning over friends but the BJP has managed to get back estranged leaders like Kalyan Singh and B S Yeddyurappa back into the party fold. At the same time, other regional player like the TDP and the YSR Congress in Andhra as well as the MDMK and the PMK in Tamil Nadu have been sending out feelers to the primary opposition. If there is one thing that the Congress is doing better than the BJP, at least for the time being is finding newer coalition partners. The grand old party is said to be in talks with the DMK in Tamil Nadu, the TRS in Andhra, the JD(U), the RJD and the LJP in Bihar, the AIUDF in Assam and the big daddy of them all, the BSP in Uttar Pradesh. Here is a look at five alliances which in my opinion could prove to be decisive in the upcoming General polls in my opinion.

(5) BJP's rainbow alliance in Tamil Nadu: When the BJP decided to declare the Gujarat CM as their PM nominee (Link) there was a feeling that the party will end up alienating itself in the big elections. However, the

PMK's Ramdoss and MDMK's Vaiko

party itself decided to take the risk as it hoped that the image of Modi as a strong, non corrupt leader will help it win the votes of the masses, besides galvanizing the party cadre. The gamble seems to have worked and the response that the BJP leader got at the Trichy rally in the state made it a sought after ally amongst the smaller Dravidian parties. At the same time, the break up of the Congress-DMK alliance has made the matters worse for both of them. Many had speculated that the AIADMK under Jaya would be a natural ally of the BJP considering her strong personal equations with Modi. However, Amma ruled out all talks of pre-poll alliance with any party, aware that a tally of over 30 seats would make her indispensable for the formation of a stable regime at the centre. Although the AIADMK has decided to go solo, MDMK's Vaiko has joined hands with the BJP. His outfit has pockets of influence in western and southern parts of Tamil Nadu. At the same time, PMK's Ramadoss which has support base amongst the Vaniyyar community is also keen to forge a partnership with the saffron party. The BJP is also trying to rope in Vijaykanth's DMDK in their front (Link). The problem here is that Ramadoss and Vijaykanth who both have political interests in northern parts of the state may not get along well. I know many may think that the BJP front may not get too many seats. Actually it would be great even if it manages to win about 3-5 seats. However, the thing to note here is that, considering that the BJP has negligible presence here, winning every single seat would be like a bonus.

(4) The Congress-JMM tie up in Jharkhand: One of the earliest pre poll alliance before the Lok Sabha polls came in July 2013 when the INC joined hands with Shibu Soren's JMM to end the impasse in Ranchi which

Hemant and Shibu Soren

was placed under the President's Rule. Under this agreement, Hemant Soren was sworn in as the ninth Chief Minister of the tribal state with support from the Congress, RJD and some independents. At the same time, a deal for fighting the big polls was stuck under which the INC will fight 10 seats whereas the JMM would field candidates from four places. While the state may send just fourteen MPs to the Parliament, the coalition may have a large impact on the results. To realize the importance of this tie-up, one has to understand that the political sphere in the state is highly fragmented and even a small swing of votes can lead to dramatic shifts. A look at the 2010 legislative assembly will help us in this regards. In this elections, both the BJP and the JMM won the highest number of seats, which was 18. The Congress and Babulal Marandi's JVM(P) won 13 and 11 seats respectively. Having joined hands, the INC-JMM tie-up will help consolidation of their votes. The last time the two came together in 2004 they won thirteen seats. In fact, the lone BJP MP from here was Marandi who has long left the party. Jharkhand is one state in central India where the BJP has to do more considering that its proposal for an alliance with the JVM(P) has been turned down by Marandi. The agreement is a win-win situation for both the INC and the Sorens; for the ailing Shibu, it is an opportunity to pass on the baton to his son. Having got the lion's share of seats, the Congress has reduced much of its dependence over the JMM which history shows, is not a reliable ally.

(3) The UPA in Bihar: Now moving from Jharkhand to neighboring Bihar, the divorce between the BJP and the JD(U) has opened a plethora of possibilities. The Namo wave is growing stronger, the way the

RJD's Lalu and LJP's Paswan

Gujarat CM continued with his Patna rally in spite of the bomb blast has further added to his popularity. As such, it is but natural for the Congress to hunt for new allies in the state. With the UPA facing anti-incumbency and the party having a weak organization here in Patna, it seems to be its only chance. Ram Vilas Paswan of the LJP who drew a blank in the last Parliamentary polls has already expressed his desire to fight the polls in alliance with the INC. Now the big question is whether the third partner here will be Nitish's JD(U) or Lalu Yadav's RJD. Some time back, Rahul Gandhi had asked Nitish to dump the BJP and join the UPA for protecting the 'secular' traditions of the country. Considering Kumar's clean image and his development work, allying with him might be a good option. At the same time, the INC is aware that the CM's plummeting ratings and the anti-incumbency factor may force it to rethink. On the other hand, RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav who has come out of a small stint in jail in the multi-crore Fodder scam (Link) is aiming to use the upcoming polls as an opportunity to resurrect his political fortunes. The issue of allying with Lalu has its own set of problems. The corruption charges against the former CM may hurt the party's prospects here. The last time the three parties i.e. the INC, the RJD and the LJP came together in 2004, they swept the polls, winning 29 out of the 40 seats. However, at this juncture, like the BJP alliance in Tamil Nadu, every seat that the UPA wins here will make it more difficult for Modi to become the PM.

(2) The Ruling Alliances have the edge in Punjab and Kerala: Now I am sticking my neck out and saying that the ruling coalitions in the states of Punjab and Kerala may sweep the polls in their respective states. The Akali-BJP

The Badals

combine did the impossible in 2012 when it romped to power, the first time that an incumbent government had been voted back to power in decades in the northern state. In the last two years, the Badals have done nothing grossly wrong so as to indicate that they is any large scale dissatisfaction with them. The failure of the Manpreet Badal led PPP to make an impact and the high inflation rates will benefit the SAD. For the BJP, it has managed to placate Amritsar MP Navjot Singh Sidhu who was reportedly unhappy with the central leadership for being sidelined. In 2009, the INC grabbed 8 seats here, largely owing to the popularity of the PM Manmohan Singh. With Singh having announced his retirement, this elections may well see the ruling

The LDF

combine winning about 10 seats from here. On similar lines, the United Democratic Front (UDF) government in Kerala is expected to do exceeding well as per the CNN IBN-Lok Niti prediction. According to the survey, it may win anywhere between 12 to 18 seats, reducing the Left Front to single digits. Such a result may have a significant impact on the Third Front. The Communists have been the ones who have time and again called for a non-Congress, non-BJP government in Delhi. However, in 2014, they may find it extremely difficult to even win more than 20 seats. In Bengal, Mamata's TMC is believed to be sweeping the elections. At this time, the comrades only hope was to do well in their southern bastion. If they fail to win over 10 seats here, the Reds may have absolutely no significance whatsoever in the next Lok Sabha.

(1) The Maha Yuti in Maharashtra: The Congress along with its ally, Sharad Powar's NCP has been in power in Mumbai for three consecutive terms. Besides facing anti-incumbency both in the state as well as at

The Maha Yuti

the Centre, the allegations of corruption in the Adarsh society scam has tainted the image of the local regime. In fact, in the last five years, the Congress has changed three Chief Ministers here. At the same time, the NCP is having troubles of its own (Link). It is being reported that the traditional NCP vote bank, the Marathas of Western Maharashtra are exploring other options. At the same time, the Irrigation scam in which allegations were made against Ajith Powar has further dented its image. While the ruling combine is struggling, the Opposition in the state is united and stronger than ever before. Following the death of its supremo Balasaheb, the Shiv Sena under Uddhav is on the rise. The factionalism within the BJP which had split into two camps here, one led by Gopinath Munde and the other by Nitin Gadkari following the death of Pramod Mahajan is now a thing of the past. The Athavale led Republican Party of India will help the front gather Dalit votes. Now Raju Shetty led Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatan has also joined hands with them. The only consolation for the INC-NCP regime is that Raj Thackeray led MNS may led to the split in the traditional Marathi votes, especially in Mumbai. However, it is believed that the BJP is planning to mend this loophole. While bringing the two Senas together may not be possible, the saffron outfit may enter a strategic alliance with Raj under which they will nominate weak leaders in each other's bastion. The Maha Yuti as it is called may even win over 30 seats of the 48 in Maharashtra.

IMAGES 

(1) PMK's Ramdoss and MDMK's Vaiko
Original: The Hindu - PMK, MDMK not to contest bypoll (Link)

(2) Hemant and Shibu Soren
Original: Jharkhand State News - Hemant with his father Shibu Soren to fly to Delhi, efforts to form government on (Link)

(3) RJD's Lalu and LJP's Paswan
Original: Indian Express - Lalu-Paswan deal not acceptable, says Congress (Link)

(4) The Badals
Original: The Tribune - SAD takes recourse to Panthic agenda (Link)

(5) The UDF
Original: The UDF (Link)

(6) The Maha Yuti
Original: Maha Yuti seals seat-sharing pact (Link)