PILOT's GHARWAPSI

PILOT CRASH LANDS INTO CONGRESS

जान बची तो लाखो पाए, लौट के बुद्दू घरको आये |

Much like the 'Buddu' who felt grateful for having escaped death in whatever misadventure he had embarked upon, Sachin Pilot should be relieved that the Congress agreed to take him back nearly a month after he had launched a revolt against the CM Ashok Gehlot. It is difficult to judge who is the ultimate winner in the short-lived rebellion that once threatened to destabilize the regime in Jaipur; is it the Gehlot who not only got rid of his bitter rival but also managed to save his government or was it former CM Vasundhare Raje who stood her ground against the inclusion of Pilot Jr in the saffron ranks and showed her influence in the state BJP. What is clear though is that the ultimate loser is the young leader from Tonk. Not only was he stripped of his position of the being the second-in-command in the state government, he has also lost the position of the president of Rajasthan Congress. 

In what was more than a symbolic reflection of the changing times, the former Deputy Minister was made to sit in the corner in the state assembly as he along with his former 'brothers-in-arms' voted to the save the very same government that they had vowed to overthrow. Pilot Jr. though put a strong defence, claiming that the strongest soldiers are sent to guard the borders. However, the sad reality for the young Turk is that apart from losing his ministry and the party presidency, he has lost the one thing that matters the most in the grand old party, the trust of the Gandhis. This was the ultimate fall from grace for a leader who was believed to be a close confidante of former INC chief Rahul Gandhi. The home coming is going to be anything but easy for him; he is going to be a marked man, every move of his, is going to be looked upon with suspicion and Gehlot & Co. will only be waiting for him to keep a wrong foot to finish off whatever is left of his political career within the INC. 

Now that he is no more than an 'ordinary worker' in the Rajasthan Congress, the former Corporate Affairs minister should spend considerable amount of his time contemplating what went wrong for him. One thing though is quite clear, he grossly over estimated his strength. After all, he could only muster the support of 18 MLAs, much less than his initial estimate of 30 that would have put pressure not only on the Congress High Command to take him seriously but also entice BJP to overrule Raje and try to woo him. In fact, across the length of the whole episode, it was evident that Sachin was mostly on the defensive, largely reacting to the agenda that CM Ashok Gehlot was setting. This is certainly not a trait of a strong regional satrap that Pilot aspires to be.

The former MP now has to start from scratch and work very hard to regain his lost political fortunes. At 43, he has still a long way to go and can afford to make mistakes. The whole imbroglio should remind Sachin Pilot that politics is more often than not, a game of numbers. It is now up to him to see how he can resurrect  himself from this debacle and emerge as the strongest Congress leader within Rajasthan. But then, that only seems possible as of now, once Ashok Gehlot hangs his boots.

PILOT HITS TURBULENCE

GEHLOT CATCHES SACHIN ON A STICKY WICKET

Sachin Pilot - Courtesy: Face Book

Last week, former Rajasthan Deputy CM Sachin Pilot hit the headlines as he along with his band of loyalists shifted base to BJP ruled Haryana in revolt against his bête noire - CM Ashok Gehlot. Though there have been reports of his differences with Gehlot ever since the Congress came to power in the state in 2018, it seems that police summons to the young leader from Tonk, asking him to join investigation in a probe related to alleged efforts on parts of the BJP to topple the government seemed to have been the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back. As talks to resolve the crisis failed to achieve any success, in spite of involvement of the Gandhi siblings, the Congress decided to take action.

Not only was he stripped off his position as the state's Deputy CM and the chief of the Rajasthan Pradesh Congress Committee (RPCC), Sachin and the 18 MLAs who came out in his support were served notices for disqualification under the anti-defection law which was later challenged by them in the Rajasthan High Court; in a relief, the court has directed the Speaker of the state assembly to wait till it delivers its judgement in the case on Monday. With Ashok Gehlot consolidating his position and upping the ante against the rebels, it seems that doors within the grand old party are finally shutting on party's former blue-eyed boy in the dessert state. Aware that numbers are not on their side and the factional feud within, the BJP has not expressed much interest in the affair, at least for the time being though its sympathies seem to be completely with Pilot Jr. as seen in the way the rebel MLAs were protected when a team from Rajasthan police reached Thanesar to grill them.

Ashok Gehlot - The Chanakya of Rajasthan politics: For over three decades, the incumbent CM has been the face of the party in the state and Sachin Pilot is just the latest of the many detractors he has taken on in his illustrious career. Serving as a Union Minister under Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi and Narasimha Rao, the leader from Jodhpur first took over the reins of the state in 1998, when the INC bagged 153 seats against the BJP led by Bhairon Singh Shekawat. This in spite of the fact that the party campaign was led by Jat leader and Gehlot's mentor Parasram Maderna, who was later made the Speaker in the state assembly. In what seemed like an action replay, the Sadarpur MLA later beat his rival C P Joshi to became the CM again in 2008 though it was the latter who was the party's face in its electoral campaign. Back then, what made matters difficult for Joshi, currently serving as the Speaker was that he lost from his constituency Nathdwara by a single vote. Ditto in 2018; while the INC won the mandate under Pilot's leadership, he had to contend with being second in command to Gehlot who is not only a close confidante of Sonia Gandhi but also enjoys an enormous clout within the state Congress unit.

A close analysis of Gehlot's moves in the last few months indicate that he left Pilot with no option but to rebel. At the onset of 2020, he convinced six MLAs from Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) to join the Congress, thereby increasing the party's tally to 107. After being able to keep the party flock together in the recently concluded Rajya Sabha polls, he decided to take on Pilot who had been critical of the state government, especially after the Congress drew a blank in the 2019 General Elections in Rajasthan. A probe was set up to look into allegedly efforts made by the BJP to topple the state government in collusion with some Congress leaders, though it was very clear who the target was, when the former Deputy CM was asked to appear before the police. When the news of Sachin's rebellion became public, the CM began wooing the two MLAs of the local outfit Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) to bolster his numbers. While the party's central leadership was working on a rapprochement between two of their tallest leaders in the state, Gehlot went on the offensive, accusing Sachin of being hand-in-gloves with the BJP to bring the government down. This was seen by many as a conscious effort on part of Gehlot to make Pilot's ghar wapsi impossible, thereby cementing his position as the sole leader of the INC in Rajasthan.

What next for Pilot? While Sachin Pilot's association with the Congress seems to be all but over, the suspense over his political future continues to deepen with each passing day. The former Minister of Corporate Affairs has denied all reports of him joining the BJP though the saffron camp has extended tacit support to him.

To begin with, it looks like the Tonk MLA miscalculated his strength within the party. With Rahul Gandhi stepping down from the post of the INC President, there has been a steady decline in the political fortunes of the young brigade seen to be close to him. Sachin only joins a growing list of Congress leaders including Jitin Prasad, Milind Deora, Navjyot Singh Sidhu etc who have been sidelined with the resurgence of the old guard after the debacle in 2019 General Elections. Coming back to Rajasthan, not only did Pilot walk into the trap that Gehlot seems to have been setting for him, he also seems to have over estimated his strength within the Congress Legislative Party in the state. With only 18 MLAs joining him in his rebellion and the BJP having its own set of problems to deal with, Gehlot seems to be set to occupy the CM's chair for some more time.

Considering that he enjoys substantial political power in the Ajmer region, Sachin Pilot may even launch his own regional outfit in his bid to fight Gehlot though the electorate has not been keen on voting for a non-BJP, non-Congress government in Jaipur. Prior to the 2018 state elections, BJP leader Ghanshyam Tiwari who had been a vocal critic of then then CM Vasundhara Raje floated his own outfit - Bharatiya Vahini Party (BVP) to offer a third alternative to the people. The Brahmin leader failed to win a singe seat and merged his party into the Congress last year. Nagaur strongman Hanuman Beniwal fared a little better, winning three seats though his Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) is a part of the NDA today. Similar attempts made by political heavyweights including Kirodi Lal Meena, Devi Singh Bhati and Lokendra Singh Kalvi have been rejected by the electorate. Will Sachin succeed where these men failed is something to be seen.

Meanwhile, it is believed that former CM and BJP leader Vasundhara Raje is not very keen in bringing the young leader into the saffron fold. Moreover, Pilot too may not be comfortable with joining the BJP; after all, his former colleagues like Jyotiraditya Scinda and Hemanta Biswa Sarma who left the Congress to be in the saffron fold have not been able to lead the BJP in their states, something that Sachin is eager to do.

Though he may have been out smarted by the wily Gehlot, age though is firmly on Sachin Pilot's side. At 43, he still has a long way to go. Besides, he comes from an illustrious family and there is still a lot of good will for his father Rajesh Pilot who died tragically in a car crash in 2000. It is expected that for the time being, Sachin will wait and watch out for disgruntled Congress MLAs who might be willing to join him in his rebellion so that he can pull the plug on the Gehlot government before either launching his own party or joining the BJP prior to the next state polls.

The Internal Mess Within the BJP: While it is true that the numbers may not be with them, the lethargy on the part of the BJP's top leadership in Rajasthan to even come out openly in support of Pilot shows the fissures that run deep within the saffron camp in the state. It is fact that for sometime now, former CM Vasundhara Raje Scindia has been miffed with attempts to sideline her within the party though she enjoys the support of over 30 party MLAs. In fact, her absence at the pro CAA rally organized at Jodhpur and attended by Home Minister Amit Shah was seen by many as her symbolic protest against the treatment meted out to her after the party's defeat in 2018 state polls. The appointment of Satish Poonia as the state BJP chief and the elevation of Om Birla as the Speaker of Lok Sabha both seem to have rubbed the former royal in the wrong way since she has not been on good terms with either of them. RLP leader Hanuman Beniwal, an ally of the NDA and a known Raje baiter has questioned her silence on Pilot's rebellion.

Apparently, Raje sees the younger Pilot as a potential threat to her claim to the CM chair's in case the BJP comes back to power in the future. Moreover, she may want her own son Dushyant Singh, four time BJP MP from Jhalawar-Baran constituency to continue her political legacy and may see Pilot as a rival to her son's rise in the saffron ranks. The internal feuds within the Rajasthan BJP, in sharp contrast to the unity it displayed in MP under Shivraj Singh Chauhan and in Karnataka under B S Yeddyurappa has relegated the BJP to be more of a passive player in the whole imbroglio, which just does not fit in the aggressive brand of politics that the saffron outfit has displayed in the Modi-Shah era.

RAJASTHAN & LOK SABHA 2014

CAN THE BJP STORM THE DESERT STATE

The 2013 state elections, especially those held in the months of November and December have been a big morale booster for the BJP. Except for Delhi, it ended up forming the government in other three states, a huge achievement since it was facing anti-incumbency in at least two of these. The win in Madhya Pradesh was expected and the party was always believed to be holding an edge over its rivals in Chhattisgarh. However, it has been the victory in Rajasthan or the extent of the victory that surprised me the most. The saffron outfit under its Chief Ministerial candidate Vasundhara Raje Scindia won over 80 percent of the seats even as the Congress limped to a humiliating tally of 21, a decline of about eighty seats from the last polls in 2008. Remember in 2009 Lok Sabha polls, Rajasthan was swept by the Congress as it took home 20 of the 25 seats from the state. With the saffron party's figures plummeting to a lowly 4, the top brass asked Raje to take moral responsibility and kept out of the state politics. However, five years down the line she was brought back into the forefront and made the chief of BJP's electoral campaign. After successfully leading her party and scoring an amazing win over her arch rival Ashok Gehlot, the former royal is the new queen of the desert state.

ISSUES

(1) The Ripple effect of the 2013 elections: With the gap between the state elections and the 2014 General Elections being just a few months, the results of the local polls are expected to have a big effect on how the electorate votes while choosing the next Central government. The extent of BJP's victory in 2013 has been enormous; the very fact that it crossed the 150 mark quite comfortably indicates a massive wave in its favor. At a time when the masses want development, the previous Gehlot regime did not take any worthwhile measure in this direction during its tenure. Not so surprisingly, it was booted out. Meanwhile, Raje's Suraj Sankhalp Yatra helped her connect with the people on the ground. The saffron outfit wants to ride on the wave and wrest Rajasthan back from the Congress in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.

(2) The UPA II government's performance: The general perception is that the UPA II government in New Delhi has failed to deliver and the desert state is no exception. A plethora of corruption allegations including 2G, Commonwealth and Coalgate have tarnished the image of the incumbent regime at a time when the country was awakened by developments triggered after the fast by anti-graft crusader Anna Hazare in August 2011. The policy paralysis and economic slowdown has led to a general sense of unhappiness with the Singh government. One of the biggest failures of the Congress has been its inability to control inflation and the price rise has only made the matters worse.

(3) Modi at Centre and Raje in Jaipur: During the Madhya Pradesh state elections it was being speculated that there were some differences between Narendra Modi and Shivraj Singh Chauhan as both were once considered for the post of BJP's PM nominee for 2014. However, no such issues exist between the Gujarat strongman and Raje. In fact, during the polls she was more than happy to play second fiddle to him in election rallies they attended together. The combined popularity of both the leaders is expected to swing the balance heavily in BJP's favor. After Gujarat, Rajasthan is one state where Modi has a large fan base. On the other hand, after coming to power, Raje has looked drastically different from here earlier stint when she was labelled indifferent and haughty.

CONTENDERS

(1) BJP: The saffron outfit is in the driver's seat. After a spectacular performance in the state polls, the party is all set to score big in the General Elections too. The Rajasthan CM Vasundhara Raje Scindia however, is taking no chances. In spite of romping home to power, she is putting in all the efforts to maximize her party's poll prospects. She is trying to connect to the ordinary people by travelling in trains, a clear attempt at image makeover. The former royal who was known to lead a lavish life during her earlier tenure has to play a major role in case the BJP has to form the next government at the Centre.

(2) Congress: The INC in Rajasthan, as in many states in the Hindi heartland, is in a soup. After the drubbing it got in last state polls, the party seems to be headed for a rout in upcoming Lok Sabha elections from here. The priority of the Congress will be to cut down its loses as far as possible. Choosing the right candidates could well make the difference. At the same time, you can even expect the grand old party to refuse tickets to some of its sitting MPs and field new faces.

The Aam Admi Party (AAP) will make its electoral debut in the state in the upcoming General Election. The National People's Party (NPP) which fielded several dissidents from the national parties and won four seats in the assembly does have an outside chance to cause upsets though it may not win any seats. The Bahujan Smamajwadi Party and the National Unionist Zamindar Party (NUZP) have just pockets of influence but are most likely to finish with no seats. Amongst the parties that constitute the Third Front, the Samajwadi Party and the Janata Dal (United) are marginal players.

PAST PERFORMANCE

As it is evident from the below chart, Rajasthan is a swing state i.e. either of the two national parties sweeps the state, winning an overwhelming majority of the seats from the state. Between 1999 and 2007, the saffron outfit was the dominant player here. It did exceedingly well in 1999 General Elections and dislodged the Congress government from power in 2003. The very next year when the NDA faced a shock defeat, the desert state still elected 21 BJP representatives to the Parliament. Things started changing in 2008 when Gehlot extracted revenge from Scindia as the INC came to power in Jaipur. In the following year, the Congress won 20 of the 25 seats during the General Elections as it defied anti-incumbency to script a famous win. Now with the BJP winning with a thumping majority in the recently concluded assembly polls, people here are expecting the party to perform strongly in 2014 too.

Political Party	2013 SE	2009 GE	2008 SE	2004 GE	2003 SE	1999 GE
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	162	4	78	21	120	16
Congress	21	20	96	4	56	9
Others	17	1	26	-	24	-

(1) SE: State Elections (The Rajasthan state assembly has 200 seats.)
(2) GE: General Elections (Rajasthan sends 25 MPs to the Lower House of the Parliament.)

MY PREDICTIONS

In my opinion, the saffron brigade is all set to finish with a superb tally of around 20 seats. The Congress is heading to a massive defeat in the state and it will be an achievement if they can even cross five seats. The Aam Admi Party (AAP) may open its account in the state.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	16-22
2	Congress	4-8
3	Aam Admi Party (AAP)	0-1

WATCH OUT

(1) The Battle for Jhunjhunu: The Aam Admi Party (AAP) has named former Lt General of Army Raj Kadyan as its candidate from Jhunjhunu constituency in North Western Rajasthan. After former Army Chief General V K Singh joined the BJP this week, there are speculations that he may be made to contest against Kadyan from here. Considering that Kadyan and Singh have had several bitter war of words in the past, the contest could gather momentum in the next few weeks. Besides, both ex-servicemen belong to the two dominant yet rival castes from the Shekawati region of the state - Singh is a Thakur whereas Kadyan belongs to the Jat community.

(2) Future of Ashok Gehlot: What will be the political future of former CM Ashok Gehlot? Born in 1951, he is still young by political standards. However, after the kind of beating that Congress party got, it remains to be seen if the Gandhis trust him with some important responsibility in the future. There was some buzz in political circle that Rahul Gandhi wanted to chose a new face to led the party prior to the 2013 polls. However, Gehlot still managed to convince the high command to retain him. After a utterly humiliating defeat, can he still make a comeback. well, that remains to be seen.

For more posts in this series:
(1) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Delhi & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)