DELHI POLLS 2014 - Part VII

THE BIG WINNERS AND LOSERS

It is but imperative that we start this post by lauding the efforts of the Chief Electoral Officer of Delhi Chandra Bhushan Kumar, his entire team and the security forces in making sure that the whole voting process went on smoothly. In spite of the fact that Delhites were voting for the third time in last 14 months, they came out in record numbers to exercise their democratic right. The voting percentage was a little over 67 much more than that seen during the Lok Sabha polls which shows that we Indians have still not lost faith in the political system.

With the AAP having swept the polls, winning a staggering 67 of the 70 seats, it is but natural that all of its top guns have won their respective constituencies. Leading the list of the big winners is the party chief Arvind Kejriwal who retained the prestigious New Delhi seat by a mrgin of over 31,000 votes beating Nupur Sharma of the BJP and Kiran Walia of the Congress. His close aide and former state cabinet minister Manish Sissodia too was successful from Patparganj where he beat his former colleague Vinod Kumar Binny who was fighting on a BJP ticket. Meanwhile, former ministers Somnath Bharati and Rakhi Bildan who were in the news for all the wrong reasons during the AAP's 49 day regime emerged victorious from Malviya Nagar and Mangol Puri respectively.

Other prominent winners from the AAP include former ministers - Satyendra Kumar Jain (Shakur Basti), Saurabh Bharadwaj (Greater Kailash) and Girish Soni (Madipur) and former Congress leader Alka Lamba (Chandini Chowk).

Considering that only three BJP candidates were able to tide over the AAP tsunami, they deserve to be in the list of the winners. These include Om Prakash Sharma (Vishwas Nagar), Vijendra Kumar (Rohini) and Jagdish Pradhan (Mustafabad).

The casualties in the saffron camp were many. Perhaps, the biggest amongst them was the party's CM candidate Kiran Bedi herself who lost from Krishna Nagar which is believed to be a BJP strong hold since it has been nurtured by former state party leader and Union Minister Dr. Harshavardhan. She was beaten by AAP candidate S K Bagga by a margin of over 2,400 votes. Another well known state leader Prof. Jagdish Mukki had to bite the dust from Janakpuri as he lost out to his rival Rajesh Rishi by over 25,00 votes. Meanwhile, former AAP leaders who had joined the BJP ahead of the polls including former Speaker M S Dhir (Jangapura) and Vinod Kumar Binny (Patparganj) too were beaten. Similarly, former Union Minister Krishna Tirath who had jumped to the saffron camp from the Congress lost from the Patel Nagar constituency. Also, former DU president Nupur Sharma who was pitted against AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal lost by over 30,000 votes.

For the Congress, its campaign chief Ajay Maken lost his deposit from Sardar Bazaar having been beaten by AAP's Som Dutt who polled over 67,000 votes. Like him, former Child and Women Welfare Minister Dr. Kiran Walia lost to the AAP chief having got just over 4,700 votes. Other bigger losers from the party include Muslim faces - Shoaib Iqbal (Matia Mahal) and Haroon Yusuf (Congress), President's daughter Sharmistha Mukherjee (Greater Kailash) and Dr. Yoganand Shastri (Malviya Nagar).

For all posts in this series on Delhi Elections 2015, click here (Link)

DELHI POLLS 2014 - Part VI

THE RESULTS

Though the Opinion polls may have been unanimous in declaring the AAP as the clear winner in the Delhi elections 2015 after the votes were cast on February 7, the magnitude of their victory was grossly under-estimated. Nobody, not even the likes of Kejriwal or Yogendra Yadav would have anticipated that their party would bag over 95 percent of the seats in the state assembly. As Shiv Sena supremo Uddhav Thackeray put it, it seemed that the 'Modi wave' was swept aside by the 'tsunami' in favor of the Aam Admi Party. As early as December last year, many felt that the AAP would find it extremely difficult to get a decent tally, forget thoughts of going past the half way mark, especially after a series of political blunders that they had committed in the past year. The whitewash in the national capital in the Lok Sabha polls was hailed as the beginning of the end of the anti-corruption party. In what can be best described as a 'fairy tale', thousands of AAP volunteers ably led by Kejriwal & Co. worked day in and day out to capitalize on the errors made by the BJP to turn the tide in their favor by getting across their vision for Delhi to the masses.

Courtesy: HD Wallpapers wala

The AAP's phenomenal tally of 67 seats is special in many ways. There are very rare instances in multi-party democracies like ours wherein a single party manages to win such a large percentage of seats. The only other state where such a pattern has been observed in recent times was in Sikkim where the ruling SDF under CM Pawan Kumar Chamling won all 32 seats in the 2009 elections to the state assembly. Prior to that, the party had won 31 seats in 2004. Another important trend to notice is that Kejriwal's outfit won nearly 54 percent of the total votes; again, the way our election process is structured, this is not very common. In fact, 55 of the 67 winning candidates of the AAP won over 55 percent of the votes in their respective constituencies, a clear indication that they had won the confidence of the people across all parts of the city. Prominent winners from the party include Arvind Kejriwal, Manish Sisodia, Somnath Bharati, Rakhi Bidlan and Alka Lamba.

Sr.	Political Party	Seats
1	Aam Admi Party (AAP)	67
2	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	3
3	Congress (INC)	0
4	Others	0

With this memorable win, the AAP has finally managed to stem the Modi juggernaut that had enjoyed unprecedented success in last eight months. The odds were heavily stacked against them. However, the relatively new outfit must be credited for the manner in which they ran their campaign ever since Kejriwal resigned from his post in February last year. With the BJP delaying the elections to the state assembly for reasons best known to them, the AAP got the time to re-group and formulate a strategy to counter the saffronists who were trying to cash in on PM Modi's popularity. Through Delhi Dialogue, the party managed to read the pulse of the voters while convincing them that they would not run away from power this time around. A strict screening process to select candidates and an effective social media campaign further helped their cause. Their 70 point agenda that included some populist measures helped them woo the lower and middle income groups away from the two national parties and helped the AAP register a historic win.

Courtesy: Desktop HD Wallpapers

For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) the results of the Delhi polls have been their worst nightmare. Having bagged 31 seats in the 2013 state elections and won all seven seats in the parliamentary seats the following year, the saffron camp was reduced to just three seats. There is a serious need for introspection within the BJP as many political activists have pointed out, they seem to have handed an easy victory to the AAP on the platter. The delay in scheduling the polls seems to be the first mistake that the party made. As if it was not enough, the infighting within the party's state leadership as well as the move to parachute Kiran Bedi to led the campaign seem to have further contributed to their pathetic performance. In fact, the party seemed to have focused more on 'maligning' Kejriwal's image with PM Modi leading the pitch, rather than telling the people of Delhi what their plans are for the capital. The process of selecting candidates was delayed whereas the saffron camp did not even release a proper manifesto. All in all, the party seemed to have paid a heavy price for being arrogant and for running a 'negative' campaign in the polls. In what was a major setback, the party's CM candidate Kiran Bedi was beaten by AAP's S K Bagga from their stronghold of Krishna Nagar. The only silver lining was that its vote share as compared to the last state polls remained almost stagnant.

For the grand old party of Indian politics, the situation seems to be worsening. The Congress which had ruled the national capital for three straight terms could not even open its account. It managed to win just over 8 percent of the total votes where 62 of its 70 candidates even lost their deposits. Amongst them was its campaign chief Ajay Maken. It is imperative that the party's High Command takes some serious steps to arrest the decline in the fortunes of the INC.

For all posts in this series on Delhi Elections 2015, click here (Link)

DELHI POLLS 2014 - Part V

THE THINGS TO LOOK OUT FOR

I am pretty sure that most of you will agree with me when I say that the elections to Delhi will be the most keenly fought electoral contest following the General polls 2014. The campaign was as bitter as it was intense. Unlike the other recently concluded state polls where the Congress put up a rather feeble resistance to the saffron juggernaut, the BJP seems to have found a worthy opponent in the AAP in the national capital. The AAP leadership as well as the thousands of volunteers and karya kartas working for Kejriwal's outfit deserve a round of applause for resurrecting the party from the shambles after the thumping that it got in May last year all thanks to morchas, bike rallies and nukkad nataks (street dramas) that they have undertaken in the last two months. Of course, the saffronists too made their work easier after a series of electoral blunders that saw them lose a lot of ground to their opponents as the polling date approached. In fact, opinion polls suggest that AAP may actually hold an edge over the BJP; meanwhile, the INC's situation continues to be pathetic. The impact that these polls will have will be huge and here are the points to watch out for as the EVMs are opened and the results are announced this Tuesday:

(1) The AAP's Battle For Survival: One can understand why the Delhi polls is so important for the Aam Admi Party (AAP) and its chief. After being demolished in the General polls and being wiped out of Delhi, Kejriwal & Co. have put all on the line. While many expected them to take a defensive line in wake of the May 2014 drubbing, the party cadre worked relentlessly to consolidate their substantial vote base amongst the low income workers and migrants who have traditional been Congress loyalists, besides luring a sizable chunk of traders away from the saffron camp. In spite of the fact that several of its former leaders have crossed over to the opposing camp, the AAP has fought the BJP tooth and nail using limited means and through unconventional and innovative methods, making sure that their vision of a corruption-free Delhi is put across to the electorate. While highlighting their performance during 49 day long government that the party had formed with the outside support of the Congress, Kejriwal has attacked the NDA regime at the Center for failing to do anything for the people of the capital in spite of being in power for the last seven months.

It is a 'do or die' scenario for the the former IRS officer and his outfit. A win would herald a second innings that would help it expand its support base beyond Delhi whereas a defeat could mean an abrupt end to AAP's political fortunes, making it one of the many parties that promised big things but could never deliver anything substantial. In politics, it is rare that a party gets an opportunity to make a comeback and it remains to be seen if Kejriwal and his outfit can grab this golden opportunity with both hands and make the most out of it, failing which, it could well sink into the oblivion.

(2) The End of Modi Mania? The BJP just had the best year in its three decade long history. Besides winning a clear majority on the floor of the Lok Sabha this May, it emerged victorious in Haryana and Jharkhand. In Maharashtra where it fought the polls without its ally - the Shiv Sena, the saffron outfit emerged as the single largest party, winning nearly twice as many seats as its friend turned foe turned friend. In Jammu Kashmir too, the party fared well, picking up 25 seats, all coming from the Hindu dominated Jammu region. It is clear that the persona of the PM Narendra Modi as a pro-development, no non-sense leader has largely been responsible for this wave of support to the BJP across most parts of the country, including those where the party has had minimal historical presence. As the Modi juggernaut has rolled, the BJP has been able to snatch state after state from the Congress and other weak regional satraps who seem to have been blown away.

However, the big question is whether the Kejriwal would be the man who could put a brake on the Modi bandwagon which till a month back looked unstoppable. Opinion polls suggest that the fight for the capital could be a photo finish between the two main contenders - the BJP and the AAP. The PM has addressed several rallies in Delhi where he tore into the Kejriwal's 'dismal' record while in office and asked him to join the Naxalites. On the other hand, the AAP chief's rallies too saw massive turnouts, much more than that of BJP's CM nominee Kiran Bedi. In fact, regional satraps including Mamta Bannerjee who are gearing up to fight the saffronists in their own backyards have put their weight behind the AAP, an indication of how important that results of Delhi 2015 could be on the Indian political landscape.

There has been a certain section in the media that believes that the Delhi polls are a referendum on Modi. In my opinion, such an analysis is a little far fledged. While the national capital is a cosmopolitan city, the voting patterns here, as in many of the other states and cities across the country cannot be extrapolated to the country as a whole. Of course, while a loss would be a blow to the PM, a victory will be the crowning glory in what has been a superb 14 month period for him and his party.

(3) Can 'Master Strategist' Amit Shah deliver yet again: Though the BJP fought the polls under the leadership of Narendra Modi, it was his Man Friday, Amit Shah was the real architect of the party's amazing tally in May last year. As the chief of the saffron outfit's campaign in the mega state of Uttar Pradesh, he ran an efficient campaign using Modi's persona, flaring up communal sentiments and striking deals with various socio-political organizations, thereby helping the BJP and its ally - the Apna Dal win 73 of the 80 parliamentary seats, a feat unparalleled in the country's electoral history. While the Gandhis and the Yadavs were reduced to their pocket boroughs, Mayawati's BSP was wiped off. As such, it did not come as a surprise when the former Gujarat Home Minister was made the national party president last year.

The move has certainly paid off. In Haryana, he decided to ditch the HJC and the saffron camp still managed to go past the half way mark at 45, forming its first government in the state's electoral history. In Jharkhand, he decided to play safe, forging an alliance with the Mahato's AJSU; the move paid off again with the coalition beating the Congress and the JMM. In the big state of Maharashtra, he took the risk of breaking ties with the Shiv Sena as the saffron allies failed to reach an agreeable seat sharing formula. As the results were announced, Maharashtra had its first BJP CM with members of the Sena joining his cabinet. Though his ambitious 'Mission 44+' did not exactly materialize in J&K, the BJP still win 25 seats, the most it had won ever. No wonder, he is considered to be the best electoral strategist in the country.

Unfortunately for him and his party, Shah's magic seems to be waning in Delhi this time around with the BJP committing one blunder after another. At the beginning of the campaign, the party appointed Satish Upadhyay as the head of its campaign instead of making Dr Harshavardhan its face in the state. With the AAP growing from strength to strength, the saffronists made Kejriwal's former colleague in the anti-corruption movement Kiran Bedi its CM candidate. Although the move was hailed by some as a master stroke, as days went by, it became clear that the former IPS officer failed to match the former Delhi CM's charisma at least in the political arena. In a desperate attempt to bolster the party's fortunes ahead of the polling day, the party president got in a host of bigwigs including the PM, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, Power Minister Piyush Goyal, Commerce Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and over 100 MPs to canvass for the party's nominees. Will this last ditch attempt pay off or will Delhi be a blot on Shah's rather envious report card so far.

(4) Kiran Bedi's political future: While there could be doubts whether the Delhi polls is a referendum on AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal or PM Narendra Modi, one thing is clear. The way the national capital votes will decide for sure, the fate of one politician - BJP's Kiran Bedi. The former tough cop who was with Anna Hazare in the anti-corruption movement is now in the saffron camp. In fact, her appointment as the BJP's CM candidate reportedly sparked infighting amongst the numerous camps that the Delhi unit of the party finds itself in. Though the AAP chief termed this as a move to shield Modi from the blame of the defeat, many thought that Bedi's clean image would compliment the wave in support of the BJP and help it go past the half way mark. Unfortunately, Bedi has not managed to 'set the stage on fire'. A defeat to the BJP would mean the end of her political ambitions though she is expected to easily win her constituency of Krishna Nagar, the stronghold of BJP leader Dr. Harshavardhan. A victory though would make her the CM of the capital.

(5) The fate of the Congress: The 'bad times' for the grand old party seems to never get over. As if the spate of electoral defeats over the last year were not enough, the INC seems to be headed to a third position finish in the Delhi state polls too. Clearly, the move to get in former Union Minister Ajay Maken has not worked the way the loyalists would have thought. The Opinion Polls indicate that the Congress may in fact perform worse than it did in December 2013 when it was reduced to just eight seats. This would be a massive blow to the party and its supporters. Following the rout in the General Polls last year, it seems that the party has not yet been able to re-invent itself or to put it in other words, the electorate has still not forgiven the party for the mistakes that it committed during its decade long regime at the Centre. Anything more than 8 would at least indicate that the Congress has improved its position somewhat whereas a tally less than that would raise serious questions over the party's future. In that case, the voices against Rahul Gandhi and his coterie of supporters will only grow stronger and many heavyweights might actually quit the 'sinking ship' like former minister Jayanti Natarajan did a few days ago.

For all posts in this series on Delhi Elections 2015, click here (Link)

DELHI POLLS 2014 - Part II

MAKEN TO THE RESCUE

Aware that it could be relegated to the third position for a second time in a row, the Congress has decided to shake up things by appointing Ajay Maken as the head of its electoral 'campaign' for the Delhi state polls, scheduled for February 2015. While it is pretty clear that the contest is going to be a direct fight between the BJP and the AAP, the INC's move to bring in the former Union minister is seen as an desperate attempt to get an image makeover ahead of the elections. After being decimated in the last state polls where it failed to go past the two digit mark in its former strong hold and following a sting of electoral defeats in 2014 including a disastrous General Elections, the grand old party is at its lowest point in its 120 year long chequered history. However, what bothered political observers and analysts the most was its sheer lack of conviction in doing any sort of introspection into the many issues that are plaguing the INC at present and taking certain 'tough' decisions to arrest its continued decline rather than offering mere lip service.

For a change though, the party surprised everyone by putting the former Sports Minister at the helm of affairs in the poll bound national capital; while this many not have any significant bearing on the result of the Delhi elections, it is certainly a step in the right direction. The fifty year old leader who shot to fame after winning the elections to the post of president of the Delhi University (DU) in 1983, won three consecutive terms in the state legislative assembly from 1993 to 2003 and also held various portfolios in the Sheila Dixit cabinet. In 2004, he contested the Union Polls and represented the prestigious New Delhi parliamentary constituency for two straight terms. Following the Congress' defeat in the 2013 state polls which it fought under the leadership of the then incumbent CM, there was a void in the party's state unit which was left licking its wounds having being reduced to just eight seats. What made the matters worse was the total wipe out in the parliamentary polls wherein some of its most popular faces - Kapil Sibal and Ajay Maken himself lost out to the saffron party that was riding high on the Modi wave. Aware of the fact that the INC is fast losing its remaining voter base in Delhi to the BJP and the AAP, this decision seems to make some sense. And here are the reasons. Maken, a loyal Congressman has been in politics for nearly three decades and brings in loads of experience of working both at the state and at the Centre. Secondly, he is amongst the handful of Congressmen to have a 'clean' public image. Thirdly, by projecting him as their leader, the INC has distanced itself from former Delhi CM Sheila Dixit who is seen as being ineffective in controlling rampant corruption prevalent during her 15 year term. It also helps the party tackle anti-incumbency. And most importantly, Maken is said to be close to the party Vice President Rahul Gandhi which is a one-requisite for occupying any high profile post in the party.

As I have already mentioned earlier, the impact that Maken may have on the results could be negligible. I mean, for the state that the Congress finds itself in, winning even 10 to 12 seats could be considered a 'phenomenal performance'. At the same time, in my opinion, this is the first time that the party seems to have taken a right step post the 2014 Lok Sabha debacle. The move to project Ajay as its face in the capital may not have any immediate results. Yet, it is an important step keeping the party's political future in mind. The Congress has lost the faith of the masses and the cadre morale is low following the series of electoral reverses in the past few months. As such, people like Maken who have literally emerged from the grass roots could help in rebuilding the grand old party. It will be in the interest of the INC to persist with the former minister irrespective of the tally that the party wins.

However, the big questions still remain unanswered. In spite of leading an extremely inactive and spineless campaign that saw the Congress register its worst ever results in the nation wide polls, Rahul Gandhi continues to be the No 2 within the party. Isn't it time to 'reprimand' the crown prince and his coterie for the mistakes that they committed? Similarly, is the first family ready to give a free hand to state leaders and not interfere in their functioning at the fear of losing their grip within the ranks? And most importantly, is the INC ready to reinvent its outdated and pro-minority ideology to remain relevant in the political landscape? And then, these are just a few questions that are glaring in the face of India's oldest political outfit. The decisions that it makes today will decide if the party could ever reclaim its numero uno position in Indian politics.

For all posts in this series on Delhi Elections 2015 , click here (Link)

DELHI & LOK SABHA 2014

WHO WILL STORM DELHI?

Now I do not think anybody will disagree when I say that the Delhi elections were arguably the most keenly contested amongst all polls in 2013. After 15 years of being in power, the capital voted out its longest serving CM Sheila Dixit as the INC crawled to a tally of eight. The BJP, in spite of doing exceedingly well in MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan could not cross the half way mark on its own. And the phenomenal success of the AAP, fighting its maiden electoral battle was mesmerizing with many hailing it as the new beginning in Indian politics. With no party winning a majority, Arvind Kejriwal did a volte face, taking the support from the same INC which he had termed as 'corrupt' during the campaign. The short lived AAP government did deliver on some of its promises till the INC pulled the plug following differences over the Lokpal Bill. And many say that it was here that Kejri & Co. lost the plot. At a time when they had not established themselves in Delhi, the outfit decoded to go national. In fact, I would not be wrong to say that a certain section of AAP supporters have questioned the logic behind all this. The backdrop has been set just on the eve of the Union Elections. In fact, one of the biggest talking points this elections is after all the dharnas, the drama and the hung assembly, who will win the nation's capital in this triangular contest.

ISSUES

(1) Corruption: It was at Ramleela Maidan in the heart of Delhi that Anna Hazare and his team launched the hunger strike which ended capturing the conscience of the entire country. While the Gandhian may have had an ugly split with Kejriwal in the later months, the issue of corruption continues to be the biggest talking point of Lok Sabha 2014. The never ending list of scams that have rocked UPA II including 2G, Railgate, Coalgate and even the Delhi Common Wealth Games have tarnished the name of the Manmohan regime. The Congress is clearly on the backfoot. However, even BJP cannot claim to be hold the upper hand on this after accepting tainted leaders like B S Yeddyurappa and B Sriramalu back into the party fold.

(2) Bijli, Sadak aur Paani: One of the issues on which the AAP fought the last state elections was reduction of power tariffs and 24 hour water supply to the people of the city. In fact, after coming to power, the party stayed true to its word. Now, in the run up to the big polls, the party is set to talk about its achievements in its 49 day regime. Meanwhile, price rise and uncontrolled inflation have been the other hallmarks of the last Union government. The BJP has accused the incumbent regime of failing to bring relief to the common man.

(3) Women's Safety: Apart from corruption, if there is one more issue which has grabbed all the eyeballs in the last three years, it is the safety o the women across the country. it was the brutal gang rape and murder of the 23 year old 'Nirbhaya' in a moving bus in the capital which reminded us of how much more needs to be done in this regards. Former Delhi minister Somanth Bharati's mid night raid and alleged 'harassment' of some Nigerian women has hit his party's standing. The BJP and the AAP have fielded female candidates in some of the parliamentary seats to draw political mileage out of the situation.

(4) Social Fabric: Being the cosmopolitan city that it is, the politics here continues to be split along caste and ethnic lines. The capital attracts large number of migrants, most from Haryana, UP and Bihar. The Muslims form nearly 10 percent of the total population in the state. Similarly, the Sikhs too are a sizable minority. Which way these groups vote may end up affecting the results in quite a few constituencies.

CONTENDERS

(1) Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): After winning 31 seats in the recently concluded state assembly polls, the saffron camp is hoping to reverse its disastrous defeat in 2009 where it drew a blank. The BJP is riding on the Modi wave as well as the bad performance of the Congress led UPA in its second term to reclaim its former 'citadel'. Buoyed by its good showing in 2013, the party knows that winning big here will not only help it in its 'Mission 272+' but also help crush the AAP. The party has fielded heavyweights - former CM nominee Dr. Harsh Vardhan (Chandni Chowk), Bhojpuri actor Manoj Tiwari (North East Delhi) and spokesperson Meenakshi Lekhi (New Delhi).

(2) Aam Admi Party (AAP): After a spectacular debut, probably the best in recent times, there are lots of expectations from Kejriwal's outfit. In fact, at the time when Arvind Kejriwal took oath as the CM of India's capital, many thought that the revolution that was AAP would soon spread across the country. Of course, there is endless debate regarding the the timing of Kejriwal's resignation. However, that is something we will discuss later. Meanwhile, Delhi is extremely crucial for the AAP, not only in Lok Sabha 2014 but also for its political future. Its nominees include former state minister Rakhi Birla (North-West Delhi), journalist Ashutosh (Chandi Chowk) and Gandhiji's grandson Raj Mohan (East Delhi).

(3) Congress: The grand old party may be down but is certainly not out. It may have been reduced to single digits but the Lok Sabha polls is a different story all together. Some of the party's biggest names come from here including a few Central ministers - Kapil Sibal (Chandi Chowk), Ajay Maken (New Delhi) and Krishan Tirath (North West Delhi). Besides, Sandeep Dixit - the son of former CM Sheila Dixit has been renominated from East Delhi.

PAST PERFORMANCES

The National Capital Territory of Delhi has been a swing state as far as politics is concerned, with one of the two major national parties sweeping it. Between 1996 and 1999, it was a BJP bastion with the saffron outfit increasing its tally by 1 each time. In 1999, as the NDA formed its government under Vajpayee, the capital region gave a big thumbs up to the saffronists. On the other hand, in the last two General Elections, the Congress has had the upper hand. In 2009, exactly ten year after that disastrous rout, the INC extracted sweet revenge from its rival winning the state 7-0.

Political Party	2009	2004	1999	1998	1996
Congress	7	6	-	1	2
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	-	1	7	6	5

MY PREDICTIONS

The fight is between the BJP and the AAP. However, the manner in which the Kejriwal-led government resigned in haste is clearly affecting his party's prospects in the General polls. The saffron camp, in my opinion holds the edge. The Congress is no where in the picture.

	Political Party	Expected Seats
1	Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)	3-5
2	Aam Admi Party (AAP)	1-3
3	Congress	0-1

WATCH OUT

(1) Litmus Test for the AAP: The upcoming polls in many ways will determine the future of the Aam Admi Party. After that fairy tale debut, the party became the toast of ht nation till it resigned after failing to get consensus on the Jan Lokpal Bill. Many in the country think that the move was a blunder. Moreover, in a bid to generate political mileage out of this, the party decided to go national and has fielded candidates across the country. While it may not do too well in other states, Delhi is extremely crucial as it is where the party was born. If the party fails, then it will be a big blow and would adversely impact its performance in the state polls too.

(2) The State Polls: After the Congress withdrew its support to the AAP regime in February this year, it is expected that the polls to the state legislative polls will be held sometime this year. And there is no doubt that whosoever wins Delhi in the General Elections will naturally have an upper hand in the state elections too. An NDA win will make the BJP firm favorites; a third term of the UPA, though highly unlikely will give a big boost to the INC whereas AAP will better its tally if they can win the maximum parliamentary seats here.

Other posts in this series:
(1) Karnataka & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(2) Rajasthan & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(3) Maharashtra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(4) Goa & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(5) Kerala & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(6) Assam & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(7) Tripura & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(8) Haryana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(9) Chhattisgarh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(10) Jammu Kashmir & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(11) Madhya Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(12) Telangana & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(13) Bihar & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(14) Jharkhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(15) Sikkim & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(16) Arunachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(17) Nagaland & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(18) Manipur & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(19) Meghalaya & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(20) Mizoram & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(21) Uttarakhand & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(22) Himachal Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(23) Gujarat & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(24) Punjab & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(25) Bengal & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(26) Odisha & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(27) Tamil Nadu & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(28) Andhra & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)
(29) Uttar Pradesh & Lok Sabha 2014 (Link)